Tag: Corona virus
Stevenson’s army, April 29
– It looks as if the appeals court is favorable to the House’s position that the executive branch should comply with House subpoenas. NYT says same.
-Meanwhile, SecDef Esper is again shifting funds for the border wall — and away from European initiatives to counter Russia.
– The president has signed an order invoking the Defense Production Act in order to keep meat processing plants open. It does say: Accordingly, I find that meat and poultry in the food supply chain meet the criteria specified in section 101(b) of the Act (50 U.S.C. 4511(b)). Under the delegation of authority provided in this order, the Secretary of Agriculture shall take all appropriate action under that section to ensure that meat and poultry processors continue operations consistent with the guidance for their operations jointly issued by the CDC and OSHA.
But nothing about immunity from suits.
– I disagree with many of his arguments but respect retired USAF Major General Charlie Dunlap and want to share his views on the Crozier case.
– Dan Drezner says the new bipartisan consensus on China is flawed like the old consensus.
– There are several new CRS reports on aspects of the Covid-19 challenge.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, April 28
– “Current and former officials” tell WaPo that the President’s Daily Brief contained a dozen warnings about the coronavirus in Jan & Feb.
-Commerce has expanded the list of products that will now require an export license to China because of potential military applications.
– In a sign that the Supreme Court may duck the issue of congressional subpoenas for Trump’s tax returns, the Court has asked lawyers to submit briefs on whether the matter is a “political question.”
-Daily Beast wonders what happened to Jared Kushner’s shadow task force on coronavirus.
– Risa Brooks sees growing efforts by civilians to politicize the US military.The post has a link to a long article by Brooks in International Security where she sharply criticizes the Huntington model of civilian control. [I agree with her and with Eliot Cohen’s idea of an unequal dialogue.]
-SAIS profs Barno and Bensahel describe how the pandemic will change the US military.
– Brookings has a bunch of products on China and technology.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, April 27
– In Australia and New Zealand, they seem to have vanquished the virus, at least for now.
– Global military spending is surging.
– WaPo says Trump administration has multi-pronged effort to marginalize WHO.
– In effort to force continued sanctions on Iran, US has told JCPOA signatories that US is still legally part of the agreement.
– Jackson Diehl notes that US has a veto over Israeli annexation.
– CDC says Covid-19 is more complex than previously understood. And the number of basic questions is huge.
– Who deserves to be rescued in the shrinking economy? NYT notes that FDR saved artists.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
National disgrace
The American response to the Covid-19 is a well-documented national disgrace. Warned early, President Trump and his Administration minimized the risks, delayed acting, and failed to mount the effort to produce protective equipment and testing required to get the country safely back to work. Encouraged by the President, states that have never taken sufficient social distancing measures are now “opening up,” which will guarantee new infections and delay further a return to normality. In addition, the President has been encouraging people to try unproven and dangerous remedies, including internal use of intense light and disinfectant.
Incompetence at this level is hard to come by, but the Administration is not so dumb when it comes to something it cares about. Republicans have quietly ensured that the legislation intended to help the country meet the Covid-19 economic challenge includes massive tax breaks for the very rich, even as they worry loudly about how $600 per week in unemployment payments might discourage the poor from working. It will take months to discover all the gimmicks they’ve written into the tax code.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is coping fairly well. Even Italy and Spain, which had big early outbreaks, are seeing their curves flatten and turn downwards. Some countries like Greece, Turkey, and Sweden are seeing a resurgence, but most seem to have things under reasonably good control. In much of the Middle East and Africa, we’ll likely never know the number of cases and deaths because of lack of ability to trace and count them. What we’ll see is an uptick in mortality due to unknown causes.
Even in the US, there is reason to believe that we are undercounting. The total will likely fall in the 70-100,000 range, a death count that should make Americans ashamed. The information, the science, and the know-how were all available in January, February, and March, when the President dithered and tried to minimize the epidemic. The result is a shocking rise in the death toll to over 2000 per day:
The economic toll is likely to be just as devastating. Conference Board scenarios include losses of between 3.6 and 7.4% for the year:
That would make the downturn sharper, though perhaps shorter, than 2008. Even so, the economy would not be back to its third quarter 2019 level before the end of this year.
The political implications are not good for Donald Trump. He has been weakening in key battleground states. The states that followed the President’s push for reopening will suffer second waves of infection, possibly just before the US election. We can hope a recovery will be in progress by November, but the economic losses will still be all too evident. The losses of life will also still be hurting: more than half a million people will by the time of the election likely have a family member who has died of Covid-19.
Donald Trump has made himself the personification of government reaction to the epidemic, by appearing almost every day on TV to misinform the public. Apparently convinced that his mendacious performance was a mistake, he is now abandoning the habit. But he should still be held accountable for the damage and disgrace he has brought on the country. It’s not WHO, it’s not the Chinese, it’s not the Democrats: Donald Trump and no one else is to blame for the failure of the US to confront Covid-19 with the many tools at its disposal. This disaster is his, and his alone.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, April 25
– Here in the United States the picture is historically grim.
– But don’t forget the millions abroad who depend on remittances.
-It doesn’t help when cronyism matters so much.
-GOP operatives say go after China.
-Meanwhile, CNAS has an excellent analysis of comparative US & Chinese economic tools and vulnerabilities. I’ve never seen anything as clear and helpful as the charts on pp 20-21 and 33-34.
Take care; it’s not just the Social Security crowd in danger.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, April 24
– In preparation for next week’s discussion about the Supreme Court, be sure to read Linda Greenhouse on the dispute over keeping precedents and this piece guessing how Justice Kagan is working to gain allies.
– Bureaucratic politics: USAF and Space Force fight to control NRO.
– Great powers work to control Arctic.
– Political appointees pushed HHS on hydroxychloroquine
– NYT tells how the president spends his days and nights.
– FP says US-Saudi alliance is collapsing.
– Constitutional point: president’s can’t veto bills until the signed copies come over from Congress. Hence this situation [from Politico]:
STILL WAITING FOR A VETO — What ever happened to the Iran war powers resolution? The Senate and House passed the measure in February and March, respectively, aimed at limiting Trump’s ability to go to war with Iran without Congressional approval. But, quite unusually, the bill has yet to reach the president’s desk. The House finally enrolled the bill earlier this month and sent it to the Senate. It’s largely a procedural action, but the Senate has yet to enroll the bill so that it can be sent across Pennsylvania Avenue. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) recently told reporters after presiding over a pro forma session that he wasn’t even asked to sign it. Trump is expected to veto the bill anyway; so what gives?
Well, now we know: Aides in both parties tell us that Senate leaders are trying to iron out an agreement on when a vote to override the president’s expected veto would take place. With floor time so valuable these days amid the coronavirus pandemic, both sides want to ensure they are not causing problems for themselves down the line. So, for now, the bill is being held back. Both sides rejected the notion that any behind-the-scenes drama is preventing the resolution from advancing to the White House. Democrats and Republicans alike appear to be OK with this arrangement because they want Covid-19 to remain Congress’ top priority.
Why not the best? No, instead, the president wants the number 3 official at Defense to be the person with this flawed past: [from D Brief]
Anthony Tata will probably be named the Pentagon’s next policy chief. Bloomberg and Politico are reporting this morning that Tata, a retired Army brigadier general turned Fox talker, will be nominated as defense undersecretary for policy. “If confirmed by the Senate, Tata would replace John Rood, who was forced out in February as part of President Donald Trump’s loyalty purge after two years in the job,” Politico writes.
A West Point grad who became a Ranger and deputy commander of the 10th Mountain Division, Tata has a master’s degree in international relations and served as a fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
Tata retired in 2008, a year after Army investigators concluded that he had had at least two adulterous affairs and as they were looking into a false document he provided to courts. In retirement, Tata became a superintendent of schools in South Carolina’s Wake County and was fired by the county school board after 20 months on the job.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
