Tag: Corona virus
Stevenson’s army, March 7
– Why are centrists losing?
– Why are Latino men trending Republican?
– Is now like the politics of the Gilded Age, when parties were strong but identity-based rather than class based? [I was shocked to learn that in the elections of 1880 and 1888 turnout was over 80%]
– NYT discovers that US stockpile was short of masks and ventilators because officials prioritized anthrax vaccine in response to clever lobbying.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | March 1 – March 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
- Breaking the Tie: Security and Stability in Belarus | March 1, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council| Register Here
For the past six months, Belarusians protesting for free and fair elections across the country have faced growing repression as strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenka attempts to cling to power. The opposition has demonstrated staying power and growing political capital, but the army and the security services remain loyal to Lukashenka. This domestic stalemate also presents a strategic problem for the Kremlin, which seems to have no new ideas beyond some monetary support for Lukashenka’s regime. Meanwhile the US and Europe have responded with modest financial sanctions against the discredited president and his cronies.
Do Lukashenka or Moscow have any new cards to play? Does the opposition? How will the situation in Belarus end and how will Washington, Brussels, and Moscow react?
Speakers:
Dr. Pavel Felgenhauer
Columnist with Novaya Gazeta,
David Kramer
Senior Fellow at Florida International University’s Vaclav Havel Program for Human Rights and Diplomacy
Valery Kavaleuski
Foreign Affairs Adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Dr. Marie Mendras
Professor at Sciences Po’s Paris School of International Affairs
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
2. Red Flags Report Launch | March 2, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic International Studies | Register Here
China’s political and economic influence in the Western Balkans is on the rise, fueled in part by a regional demand for infrastructure which is satisfied by opaque deals in the ICT, energy, and transportation sectors. These projects present risks to good governance, economic growth, environmental sustainability, and digital security. Join CSIS for a virtual discussion of a new CSIS report which describes tools and actions critical for stakeholders to objectively evaluate and respond to these risks. The report concludes a three-part series which examined the nature and impact of Chinese economic influence in the Western Balkans and its implications for the region’s stability and Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
Speakers:
Matthew D. Steinhelfer (Keynote)
Acting Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, CSIS
Jonathan E. Hillman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Reconnecting Asia Project, CSIS
Valerie Hopkins (Moderator)
South-East Europe Correspondent, The Financial Times
3. Lebanon: Challenges and Future Prospects| March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a panel to launch its Lebanon Program, focusing on Lebanon’s current state of affairs and potential US foreign policy options going forward. The months-long political stalemate and the unaddressed financial crisis keep pushing Lebanon further into chaos and uncertainty. In parallel, the new Biden administration is redefining the US stance vis-à-vis Iran and reassessing some of its bilateral relations in the region. Many of these changes will have direct implications for Lebanon. This distinguished panel will address these local and regional developments, think through ways US foreign policy towards Lebanon can be more nuanced and constructive, and highlight themes and signals that are worth paying attention to in the coming months.
Speakers:
Amb. (ret.) Edward M. Gabriel
President and CEO, American Task Force on Lebanon
May Nasrallah
Chairwoman, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Paul Salem
President, MEI
Mona Yacoubian
Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Christophe Abi-Nassif (Moderator)
Lebanon Program Director, MEI
4. Agent Sonya: Moscow’s Most Daring Wartime Spy | March 3, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute| Register Here
Please join the Intelligence Project for a discussion with Ben MacIntyre on his latest book, Agent Sonya. This true-life spy story is a masterpiece about the Soviet intelligence officer code-named “Sonya.” Over the course of her career, she was hunted by the Chinese, the Japanese, the Nazis, MI5, MI6, and the FBI—and she evaded them all. Her story reflects the great ideological clash of the twentieth century—between Communism, Fascism, and Western democracy—and casts new light on the spy battles and shifting allegiances of our own times.
With unparalleled access to Sonya’s diaries and correspondence and never-before-seen information on her clandestine activities, Macintyre has conjured a page-turning history of a legendary secret agent, a woman who influenced the course of the Cold War and helped plunge the world into a decades-long standoff between nuclear superpowers.
Speakers:
Ben Macintyre
Author and Journalist, The Times
5. Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe | March 3, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
In the wake of unprecedented domestic terror and national security threats in the form of mass shootings and insurrection in the nation’s capital, former Congresswoman & Wilson Center Director, President, and CEO Jane Harman offers her new book Insanity Defense: Why Our Failure to Confront Hard National Security Problems Makes Us Less Safe (St. Martin’s Press; May 18, 2021), which chronicles how four consecutive administrations have failed to confront some of the toughest national security issues and suggests achievable fixes that can move us toward a safer future.
Please join Congresswoman Harman and New York Times national security correspondent and senior writer David Sanger for an in-depth conversation on the book and a discussion on better processes and more sound policy for the next generation of elected officials and the new administration.
Speakers:
Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center
David Sanger
Former Distinguished Fellow, National Security Correspondent and Writer, the New York Times; Author, The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age
6. Religion, Ethnicity, and Charges Of Extremism: The Dynamics Of Inter-Communal Violence In Ethiopia| March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | European Institute of Peace| Register Here
In recent months, the conflict in Tigray has dominated most analyses of Ethiopian politics. The scale of the Tigray crisis makes this understandable, but in its shadow, inter-communal tensions and conflicts have persisted across Ethiopia. In recent years there were numerous violent incidents, such as the Amhara regional ‘coup’ attempt of June 2019, the violence across Oromia in October 2019, and incidents around Timkat in Dire Dawa and Harar in January 2020.
A team of Ethiopian and international researchers – Terje Østebø, Jörg Haustein, Fasika Gedif, Kedir Jemal Kadir, Muhammed Jemal, and Yihenew Alemu Tesfaye – studied two incidents of inter-communal violence: the attacks on mosques and (mostly) Muslim properties in Mota, Amhara region in December 2019 and the violence and destruction of properties in Shashemene and other towns in Oromia in July 2020. They will present their findings in this event, followed by discussion and Q&A.
Their research shows that in Ethiopia religion and ethnic violence overlap and interact with one another in complex ways. Given the current emphasis on ethnicity in Ethiopian politics, the role of religious affiliation is often overlooked, yet it is here that the accusation of “extremism” is most frequently and most consequentially raised: the mere expectation or accusation of extremism has sufficed to generate inter-communal violence and deepened a climate of mistrust.
Speakers:
Terje Østebø
University of Florida
Jörg Haustein
University of Cambridge
Sandy Wade (Moderator)
Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace
7. COVID-19 and Cooperation in Libya | March 4, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
Libya is at a turning point after the U.N.-sponsored Libyan Political Dialogue Forum elected a temporary executive authority in February to unify the country and move toward elections by year’s end. However, sustainable peace cannot be achieved with only an agreement at the national level. And the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated economic challenges, strained the country’s health infrastructure, and added a new layer of complexity to the country’s conflict. Local-level cooperation—and linking these efforts to the national-level peace process—is of utmost importance to achieve a cohesive and peaceful country.
And despite a difficult year, there have been bright spots for Libya on this front. The COVID-19 pandemic yielded many examples of local-level initiatives where Libyans came together in challenging conditions to cooperate for a common goal. The hope is that these successes can lead to longer and more enduring areas of cooperation.
Join USIP as we host Libya’s ambassador to the United States and Libyan civil society leaders for a look at stories of positive community cooperation during the current crisis—as well as a discussion on how Libyan and international organizations can build off these successes to navigate Libya’s complex conflict and ensure a peaceful future for the country.
Speakers:
Wafa Bughaighis (Keynote speaker)
Libyan Ambassador to the United States
Ahmed Albibas
Director, Moomken Organization for Awareness and Media
Abdulrahman A. S. Elgheriani
President and CEO, Tanmia 360
Craig Browne
Program Policy Officer, World Food Programme
Nate Wilson (Moderator)
Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
8. Unraveling the Conflict in Syria March 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
In 2012, as the conflict in Syria continued to smolder, then-president Barack Obama made clear that any use of chemical weapons by the Bashar al-Assad regime would constitute a “red line” for U.S. engagement. Yet in the aftermath of a sarin attack outside Damascus just a year later, the Obama administration seized the opportunity to work with Russia on an ambitious plan to hunt down and remove chemical weapons rather than go to war. A decade later, the tangle of “heroes and villains” involved in that particular scenario is clearer.
Speakers:
Joby Warrick
Author of Red Line
Maha Yahya
Director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
9. The Future of ISIS March 4, 2021 | 11:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
On October 27, 2019, then-US President Donald Trump announced that the leader of the so-called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in Syria in an American special operation, striking a blow against an already weakened organization.
What ISIS accomplished during the period of its rise and growth represents a “quantum leap” in the ideology, strategies, and operating theories of terrorist groups, and requires deep analysis of the organization’s expected future trajectory. The Politics and Society Institute in Amman, Jordan, and the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in Washington, DC, are pleased to co-host this expert discussion. This panel will shed light on what opportunities exist for policymakers to deal with the legacy of ISIS detainees and returnees, as well as on strategies against a potential resurgence in Iraq and Syria.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abu Rumman
Expert, Politics and Society Institute
Former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture
Borzou Daragahi
Journalist and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Andrew Peek
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iran and Iraq
Mara Revkin
National Security Law Fellow, Georgetown University Law Center
Banan Malkawi (Moderator)
Jordanian-American Researcher and Lecturer
10. Strategic nuclear modernization in the United States| March 4, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Brookings Institutions| Register Here
What: As with prior administrations before it, the Biden administration is preparing to undertake a major review of the U.S. strategic nuclear modernization program. Though the U.S. arsenal has decreased in accordance with the New START treaty, new delivery systems are still being developed.
Supporters of the current program argue that implementation is critical for the United States’ ability to deter adversaries and reassure allies. Opponents argue that the current program is well in excess of deterrence requirements and is not affordable over the long term. During the review period, Congress will examine the current program as well as requested funding for these systems.
On Thursday, March 4, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host a panel to discuss how the Biden administration will – and should – approach negotiations regarding the future of the strategic modernization program.
Speakers:
Tom Collina
Director of Policy, Ploughshares Fund
Madelyn R. Creedon
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Franklin Miller
Principal, The Scowcroft Group
Amy Woolf
Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service
Frank A Rose
Co-Director and Foreign Policy Fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
No tightrope between reality and conspiracy, only a chasm
NPR this morning described Republicans as walking a tightrope between the reality of Trump’s election loss and dangerous conspiracy theories about a stolen election. This weekend’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is anchored on the conspiracy side. A relatively few national Republican leaders like Mitch McConnell and Meghan McCain have tried to anchor themselves in the hard reality of an election loss. They won’t be at CPAC.
There is not “tightrope” between these two perspectives, only a yawning chasm. The Republican Party is split between them. Most of its committed supporters, the “base,” are on the conspiracy theory side. No more than 30% or so of regular Republican voters think the election wasn’t stolen and that Donald Trump incited the riot at The Capitol January 6.
This is good. If it persists, it will ensure the nomination of nut-jobs like Marjorie Taylor-Green, the Georgia QAnon star, in 2022, for both the House and Senate. Senators like Cruz and Hawley are not much better. Their votes against accepting the Electoral College votes from key states, despite the many court decisions upholding the election results, will haunt them as verdicts are delivered against the rioters over the next two years.
An incumbent president normally suffers a setback in the midterms, but if Biden gets his $1.9 trillion Covid relief package the odds are good for a decent economic recovery by November 2022. The risk will be on the inflation side, which the Federal Reserve knows how to counter. Trump never really took full credit for the vaccines. Even he found it difficult to do so while claiming the pandemic was a hoax. As it happens, they are arriving for most Americans on Biden’s watch, so he will garner the political benefits.
Trump will try to make a come back with his speech Sunday at CPAC. His audience will cheer and he will try to “primary” any Republican candidates who don’t toe his line about the election “steal.” But the country has moved on. Biden has come in for precious little criticism and projects an image of solid thoughtfulness. Even the non-Trumpian Republicans are not signing up to the Covid relief bill, but it is what most of the country wants, including the gradual increase of the minimum wage to $15/hour.
What Trump still has going for him is what he always represented: the anxiety of white people, especially less educated males, about America’s demographic and social changes. People who still believe the election was stolen blame it exclusively on cities with large Black and LatinX populations. Trump and his followers find it hard to accept that those votes count as much as their own. The only solution for them is to block Blacks and LatinX from voting, which is precisely what they are trying to do in many states with legislation aimed to suppress voting.
That is a looming battle for Biden. The Administration and Democrats in Congress need to ensure that the ways in which voting was eased in 2020 because of the epidemic are preserved for 2022. A new voting rights act should include statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Once it is clear to Republicans that they can’t regain power without appealing across racial and ethnic lines, those who stand on the wrong side of the chasm will fade and those Republicans who believe in democracy, no matter the race or national origins of those voting, will prevail. That would be a happy day.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, February 18
– SecState Blinken talks with Europeans today about Iran.
– Joe and Bibi make nice.
– US & Japan agree on base payments.
– Administration considers special envoy for Horn of Africa.
– NYT sees limits on Biden’s China policy.
– Lawfare writer suggests ways to pressure Pakistan on Taliban.
– 1/3 of US troops said to avoid vaccine.
– Autumn of 1983 was dangerous time, closest US & USSR came to nuclear war other than Cuban missile crisis. WaPo reports on new declassifications. National Security Archive has the docs on Able Archer exercise.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, January 18
AP says FBI is vetting National Guard troops in DC to prevent insider threat.
Several cabinet nominees have Senate hearings Tuesday, Hill has as story on the Austin hearing before SASC.
Politico has a long story on the inside fights that undermined Operation Warp Speed.
Maggie Haberman & colleague analyze the role of words in the Trump presidency.
CRS has new report with historical data on congressional careers.
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Build a world in which Trump will not thrive
Donald Trump could hardly have done a worse job as president. He inherited a growing economy, a healthy population, and a country that had begun to heal race relations under a two-term black president. He is leaving office with the economy going into the second dip of a deep recession, after having failed to respond effectively to Covid-19. He has praised violent white supremacists, alienated all but small contingents of minorities, and inspired a seditious insurrection targeting The Capitol and the constitutionally mandated counting of electoral votes. He was only impeached twice. He gave cause for many more indictments.
Trump still has substantial support in the Republican Party, a significant portion of which supported his effort to overturn election results and even the January 6 rioting. Only 10 Republicans joined the Democrats in voting for his second impeachment. If we are to believe one of the Republicans, there was serious discussion among them of the validity of state legislatures availing themselves of the opportunity to change the popular vote outcomes and choose a state’s electors, regardless of claims of fraud. That possibility is left open by current laws and the constitution, but it is hard to imagine a more anti-democratic notion.
The Republican Party now finds itself weakened, split, and tied to a defeated president who won’t even extend the standard courtesies of a concession speech and attendance at his successor’s inauguration. Not that he would be welcomed, as President-elect Biden has made clear. Even the most moderate, mild-mannered, and bipartisan leaning politicians has his limits. Trump will instead no doubt try to steal the limelight with some stunt between now and noon on January 20. Pardons for his family, friends, rioters, himself? An attack on Iran? An appearance at a demonstration the day of Biden’s inauguration? Who knows: in this he is clever and malicious. He’ll find something.
Suspension of his Twitter account will handicap Trump a bit. I confess to mixed feelings about that. He unquestionably used it to incite violence, so Twitter should long ago have blocked him. The history of the last four years might have been far more salubrious had it done so. But limits on free speech have a way of expanding to people who are far less culpable. Belarusian President Lukashenko no doubt feels his democracy-advocating opponents should have their social media access cut off. How about Iran’s Supreme Leader, its President, and its Foreign Minister? I don’t like their regime and think they are guilty of massive human rights abuses, but are we going to cut off all foreign leaders who commit them?
Those issues are for another day. Today we can bask in the notion that Trump will soon be out of office, his Congressional supporters are in disarray, companies are cutting off contributions to those who voted against certifying the electoral results, and Trump’s base is sorely disappointed if not yet disillusioned. We can also relish the rise to power of a calm, empathetic, capable President Biden, who is busy appointing a diverse administration of serious people and developing plans for meeting the health and economic crises that besiege us.
Nothing is guaranteed. Trump will retreat and regroup, along with the bankrupt National Rifle Association, his hypocritical evangelical supporters, his sons and daughter-in-law, the soon to be disbarred Rudy Giuliani, and those Republicans more interested in regaining power than in standing for conservatives principles, which were largely anathema to Trump.
But on Martin Luther King Day, we can be thankful for all those–black, white, male and female, and everything in between–who voted for the kind of America that King wanted: “a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.” If we build that kind of world, the likes of Trump will not thrive.
RSS - Posts
