Tag: Counter-terrorism
Syria: no attractive propositions, so Biden is staying the course
Secretary of State Blinken at a press conference with the Israeli and UAE foreign ministers today said more about Syria than I remember since the beginning of the Biden Administration, in response to a question about normalization that other countries are indulging in:
…let me talk about Syria first and then come to the second part of the – the first part of the question second.
First, to put this in focus, these initial nine months of the administration we have been focused on a few things when it comes to Syria: Expanding humanitarian access for people who desperately need that assistance, and we had some success, as you know, with renewing the critical corridor in northwestern Syria to do that; sustaining the campaign that we have with the coalition against ISIS and al-Qaida in Syria; making clear our commitment, our ongoing commitment to demand accountability from the Assad regime and the preservation of basic international norms like promoting human rights and nonproliferation through the imposition of targeted sanctions; and sustaining local ceasefires, which are in place in different parts of the country. So this has been the focus of our action for these last nine months.
As we’re moving forward, in the time ahead, keeping violence down; increasing humanitarian assistance and focusing our military efforts on any terrorist groups that pose a threat to us or to our partners, with the intent and capacity to do that. These are going to be the critical areas of focus for us, and they’re also, I think, important to advancing a broader political settlement to the Syrian conflict consistent with UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
What we have not done and what we do not intend to do is to express any support for efforts to normalize relations or rehabilitate Mr. Assad, or lifted [sic] a single sanction on Syria or changed [sic] our position to oppose the reconstruction of Syria until there is irreversible progress toward a political solution, which we believe is necessary and vital.
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-israeli-alternate-prime-minister-and-foreign-minister-yair-lapid-and-united-arab-emirates-foreign-minister-sheikh-abdullah-bin-zayed-al-nahyan-at-a-joint-press-availab/
This is a restatement of well-established US priorities: humanitarian assistance, reduction in violence, counter-terrorism, and irreversible progress toward a political solution before reconstruction or normalization.
So nothing new. What’s missing? should always be the next question.
Tony fails to deal with the threat of a serious military clash between NATO ally Turkey and the Kurdish-led forces that are conducting the campaign against both terrorists and the regime in northeastern Syria, with American support. He is silent on concerns about Iran using Syrian territory to threaten Israel. Nor does he indicate that the United States opposes normalization by others, in particular Jordan and the UAE. And he is silent on brutality-laced Russian and Iranian support for the Syrian regime, which in due course may become capable of challenging the Kurdish presence in the northeast and the Turkish presence inside Syria’s northern border. So yes, continuity of a policy that is silent on important issues and has so far failed to produce substantial results.
Is there a better approach? We could certainly tighten sanctions so that jet-setting scions of the Syrian elite don’t roam Los Angeles in Ferraris, but that won’t change anything in Syria. We could help the Germans mount a “universal jurisdiction” case against President Assad himself, in absentia, but that would set a legal precedent that might boomerang on prominent Americans. We could try harder to mediate some sort of accommodation between the Syrian Kurds and Turkey, as we did once with a modicum of success between the Iraqi Kurds and Turkey. Or we could try to negotiate autonomous status for the Kurds within Syria in return for US withdrawal, though the regime would be no more likely than the Taliban to stick to the terms of a withdrawal agreement. The Kurds would likely revert to attacking inside Turkey as well as Turkish-controlled Syria in order to curry favor with Assad. It suits the Kurds and Turkey to have the Americans remain in Syria.
I won’t even bother with military options against the Russians or the regime. The Americans take some shots against the Iranians and their proxies in Syria, but they aren’t going to risk war with Russia or the civilian casualties that taking on the regime would entail.
So no, there are not a lot of attractive propositions in Syria. Especially after the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Administration can ill afford a comparable mess in Syria, never mind an influx into the US of tens of thousands Syrian Kurds and Arabs who helped the US during the past decade and have legitimate claims to asylum. No wonder Biden is staying the course.
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Peace Picks | September 6 – 10, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Iraq’s October ElectionsL A Game Changer or More of the Same? | September 7, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
Two years after massive protests erupted in Iraq, early parliamentary elections will be held in October. Although the elections were one of the demands of the demonstrators, they are likely to be boycotted by these same activists as well as a large part of the Iraqi electorate. Yet, formal and informal coalitions have registered to run candidates with the hope of influencing the formation of the next government. If a massive boycott occurs, will the election be a gamechanger to address the new demands of Iraqi society, or will the results preserve the status quo and further de-legitimize the Iraqi state?
Speakers:
Munqith Dagher
CEO and Founder, Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies
Rahman Al-Jebouri
Senior Fellow, Institute of Regional and International Studies, American University of Iraq Sulaimani
Patricia Karam
Regional Director, Middle East North Africa Division, International Republican Institute
- Taliban 2.0: What we Should Expect for Afghanistan’s New Rulers | September 8, 2021 | 9:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
A quarter-century ago, the Taliban established a theocratic authoritarian Islamist regime that engaged in systematic internal repression, denial of human rights to Afghans and remained an international pariah. Initial indications are mixed at best whether their new government will be different this time around. While the Taliban have refrained from large-scale reprisal killings, their return has prompted a mass exodus and mounting worries over how they will treat free media, women, minorities, and dissent.
Will the Taliban now act on their statements of forming an inclusive government, respecting Afghanistan’s diversity, and ensuring services and jobs for all Afghans including women, or return to establishing a Sunni clerical dictatorship? Will they honor their counterterrorism commitments and work with the West to ensure aid flows or once again adopt isolation? How can Washington and its allies still influence the Taliban’s behavior?
Speakers:
Hameed Hakimi
Research Associate, Chatham House
Sahar Halaimzai
Co-founder and Leader Tiem4RealPeace; Nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Abubakar Siddique
Editor, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Gandhara website
Iulia Joja (moderator)
Project Director, Afghanistan Watch; Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- The Global Impact of 9/11: Twenty Years On | September 9, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
The September 11, 2001, attack on the United States redefined international security threats and altered the nature of warfare globally. To commemorate the 20th anniversary, the Wilson Center examines the lasting impact of 9/11 and the global war on terror internationally, with a specific regional focus on the Middle East, South Asia, and Europe. Experts will discuss the enduring legacy of 9/11 in terms of conflict and regional instability, jihadism, politics, and U.S. global leadership.
Speakers:
Bruce Hoffman
Global Fellow; Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service; Visiting Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; Senior Fellow, U.S. Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center
Michael Kugelman
Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia
Fernando Reinares
Global Fellow; Senior Analyst and Director, Program on Violent Radicalization and Global Terrorism at the Elcano Royal Institute; Professor of Political Science and Security Studies, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid
Nadia Oweidat
Assistant Professor of History and Security Studies, Kansas State University
Robin Wright
USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow; Author and Columnist for The New Yorker
- Palestinian Protests and the Future of the Palestinian Struggle | September 9, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
Since the Palestinian Authority’s killing of political activist Nizar Banat in June, Palestinians have been holding protests in Ramallah and other parts of the West Bank. The PA has responded with tear gas, stun grenades, and harassment of human rights defenders and journalists, in what has been described as a “concerted crackdown on freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest.” In recent weeks, dozens of protesters – including prominent human rights activists – were detained by PA security forces.
While the detainees have since been released, the crackdown highlights the Palestinian leadership’s diminishing tolerance for dissent as well as a deeper crisis of legitimacy. What’s behind these latest protests as well as the PA’s crackdown against them? What is the relationship between the protests in Ramallah and recent Palestinian popular political mobilizations in Gaza, Jerusalem, and inside the Green Line? And what do these Palestinian initiatives mean for the overarching struggle against ongoing Israeli occupation and dispossession?
Speakers:
Hanan Ashrawi
Spokesperson of the Palestinian delegation to the Middle East Peace Process; member of the Executive Committee of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)
Fadi Quran
Campaigns Director, Avaaz
Khaled Elgindy (moderator)
Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute; Director, MEI Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs
Lara Friedman (moderator)
President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
- Two Decades Later: Reflecting on Terrorism & Counterterrorism Since 9/11 | September 10, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
In the 20 years since al-Qaeda dramatically struck the United States on September 11, 2001, counterterrorism campaigns have sought to neutralize and contain terrorist threats in every corner of the globe. Over time, counterterrorism strategy and tactics have evolved, adapting to differing threats. Despite enormous investment in counterterrorism, however, the scope, sophistication, and scale of terrorism threats have arguably increased, not declined. The world now faces not one but two global jihadist movements and a proliferating array of other groups, ideologies, and challenges.
What lessons can we learn from two decades of U.S. and allied counterterrorism efforts? What is the next wave of terrorism threats likely to look like? How should the U.S. respond most effectively to new and evolving threats? And how might the global terrorism landscape be affected by the drive to ‘end forever wars?’
Speakers:
Tricia Bacon
Associate Professor, American University; former counterterrorism analyst, U.S. Department of State
Edmund Fitton-Brown
Coordinator, ISIL/Al-Qaida/Taliban Sanctions Monitoring Team, United Nations; former Ambassador of the United Kingdom to Yemen
Michael Nagata
Distinguished senior fellow, MEI; Senior Vice President and Strategic Advisor, CACI International Inc.; former Director of Strategy, U.S. National Counterterrorism Center & former Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command
Charles Lister, moderator
Senior fellow and director, Countering Terrorism & Extremism and Syria Programs, MEI
- Converging Lines: Tracing the Artistic Lineage of the Arab Diaspora in the U.S. | September 10, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center is proud to mark its 75th anniversary with the exhibition Converging Lines: Tracing the Artistic Lineage of the Arab Diaspora in the U.S. The exhibit features seventeen leading Arab American and Arab diaspora artists, including pioneering artists Etel Adnan, Hugette Caland, and Kahlil Gibran.
Converging Lines explores some of the aesthetic threads that connect the community of Arab diaspora artists whose contributions to American art have gone largely unrecognized. The artworks are linked by shared themes like exile, memory formation, changing identities, and the state of in-betweenness that often accompanies migration.
Speakers:
Maymanah Farhat
Art history researcher focused on underrepresented artists and forgotten art scenes
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Stevenson’s army, August 23
– AP notes eagerness to recruit veterans to run for Congress in both parties.
– Breaking Defense says DOD wants to declassify new space weapon.
– NYT reports divisions in Congressional Black Caucus.
– Brookings’ Dan Byman sees counter-terrorism lessons from failed Reconstruction.
And on Afghanistan: NYT revisits US opposition in 2001 to including Taliban in Bonn Conference and new government.
– US sees ISIS threat to evacuations.
– Dan Drezner says Biden’s advisors also made big mistakes.
And Punchbowl says GOP is looking for ways to exploit Afghan developments:
The House Republican leadership is privately mulling over strategies to force floor votes on the situation in Afghanistan, as the U.S. evacuation of tens of thousands of American citizens and Afghan allies from the Kabul airport continues.
The House GOP is in the minority, so their options are limited. But they’re considering several procedural tactics, including motions to recommit and a vote on the previous question, as a way to force votes. These motions call for imposing stricter reporting requirements on the number of Afghan refugees, the status of tens of billions of dollars in U.S. military hardware left in-country and what exactly is President Joe Biden’s plan to get all American citizens and equipment out of the Taliban-controlled nation.
The Republican’s longer term strategy is to try to use the National Defense Authorization Act — the annual military policy bill — to force the Biden administration into an after-action report on what went wrong in Afghanistan. GOP leaders want the Pentagon, State Department and the White House to cough up documents detailing the run up to the disastrous U.S. withdrawal, as well as the administration’s plans for dealing with any future threats from the troubled Southwest Asian country. And an even longer-term view: If the GOP takes back the majority in 2022, we anticipate that this will be something they will focus on.
So far, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and top House Republicans have largely ignored calls from their fringe elements — and former President Donald Trump — demanding Biden’s resignation or impeachment hearings, although they have questioned his fitness for office. McCarthy has complained to us and other media outlets about the lack of information Congress has received on the crisis.
To counter the GOP criticism, and to provide answers to similar questions from her own rank-and-file, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has pushed for both classified and unclassified briefings by senior administration officials. On Tuesday morning at 10:30 a.m., Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs Chair Mark Milley and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines will hold a classified briefing for all House members. Pelosi has also asked for a “Gang of 8” briefing, which is the four elected party leaders from each chamber and the chair and ranking member of the House and Senate Intelligence committees.
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