Tag: Counterinsurgency
Stevenson’s army, August 17
– Michele Flournoy has second thoughts on US counterinsurgency doctrine, writes Fred Kaplan, author of the case study of the doctrinal battle, The Insurgents.
– Kori Schake has doubts about how we train foreign armies.
– Tom Nichols says we, the US public, are responsible for the Afghan debacle because we wanted out.
– WaPo is just out with a tick-tock [“72 hours at Camp David.”] It describes an Aug. 6 Pentagon exercise that revealed potential problems and says senior NSC officials had 36 planning meetings since April to work out withdrawal.
– There are some dramatic details about the ongoing evacuation .
– Politico has a good compendium of expert commentary on what next.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 24 and 23
[Forgive the delay. I’ve started reading John Bolton’s memoir. I buy all the memoirs of senior officials and even have personally autographed volumes by Eisenhower’s Robert Cutler, JFK’s McGeorge Bundy, and Brent Scowcroft.]
Pay to play: WSJ says Chinese nationals have paid a lot to get close to Trump and his people.
Politico lists several foreign leaders seeking Trump favors while he’s still president.
WSJ says Germany is caught between US and China.
I can’t believe this Tata guy.
WH has a new official Arctic policy. Read it before it melts.
I missed posting yesterday’s Stevenson’s army, so htere it is:
– NYT explains how Administration is divided over Israeli annexation.
– CIA is recruiting, including on Hulu.
– Foreign Affairs tells of US efforts to interfere in foreign elections
– New Yorker has profile of Fiona Hill.
– Lawfare writer notes similarities between debates on counterinsurgency and community policing.
– FP sees China reaching across Pacific into Kiribati election. [remember, pronounced kiribas]
– Congress wants to realign missile defense agency chain of command
I don’t know what to say about this. It’s a dumb and futile ideas to try to involve China in US-Russian nuclear talks [the headline would be: Trump tries to force China to greatly increase its nuclear arsenal against US”], yet I see the photo op as clever messaging for a bad policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, June 7
– CJCS Milley has reached out to Capitol Hill leaders.
– “General” Barr backtracks, too. But Politico has photos of his anti-protester activities in 1968.
– A former speechwriter for Gen. Dunford describes weakening of civilian control of US military.
– Several reports say Trump demanded 10,000 active duty military to be deployed in DC.
-WaPo writer suggests US counterinsurgency and urban warfare doctrine has made militarization of police more acceptable.
– WSJ has long article describing souring of US corporate views of China.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Kinship and insurgency
Christopher Merriman, a second year student at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, writes:
At a February 12, 2020 talk hosted by the SAIS African Studies department, Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University Janet Lewis proposed a theory that networks of ethnic kinship in Uganda help rebel groups expand from upstart organizations into viable groups.
Lewis’ research looks at 16 incipient rebel groups that have operated in Uganda since 1986. Her research question asks, “What factors enabled four of these groups to become ‘viable’ while the other 12 failed?” Lewis defines a rebel group as “viable” if it reaches a “minimal threshold of threatening the authority of the central government.” This threshold includes being based in the target country for more than 3 months and having at least 100 troops.
Lewis’ study found that the four rebel groups that became viable operated in ethnically homogeneous areas. Meanwhile, all of the 12 groups that failed to become viable operated in ethnically heterogeneous areas. Ethnic homogeneity is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a rebel group to become viable. Not all groups from homogeneous areas became viable but viable groups all came from homogeneous regions.
Lewis grounds her argument in the precondition that incipient rebel groups are vulnerable to civilians telling the government of their existence. Rebel groups depend on civilians to keep their secrets. They are more likely to keep quiet if they have a favorable impression of the rebel group or think that the group will likely become “viable.”
According to Lewis, kinship networks in ethnically homogeneous regions facilitate the spread of positive information about the rebel groups. Members of ethnically-based kinship networks in homogeneous societies are much more likely to pass along information than groups of different ethnicities living in heterogeneous societies. Lewis conducted a study of two villages in Uganda that found that news traveled eight times more widely in a homogeneous village than in a heterogeneous one. These kinship networks will not necessarily spread “good news” about the rebel groups. However, kinship networks are necessary in order to spread favorable views of the rebel groups that prevent civilians from reporting the rebel group to the government. Kinship networks represent a necessary but not sufficient condition for a rebel group to become viable.
Lewis also found that the grievances of rebel groups are sometimes fueled by government responses to initial violence. Local grievances are often cited as a major reason for the formation of rebel groups or insurgencies and for their subsequent success. However, Lewis finds that rebel groups sometimes initiate violence, and only then gain grievances against the government due to government reprisals. She cited this as a reason for studying all rebel groups early on in their formation, not just those who become viable to the point that they become well-known.
Lewis does not consider group ideology a major factor in her analysis. In my view, this as a shortcoming of her model. For example, she compared two groups (one that became viable and one that did not) and argued that the main difference between the two was operating in a homogeneous/heterogeneous area. However, one group was fighting to return deposed president Milton Obote to power. Surely, this affected how the local people viewed this rebel group.
There are currently no rebel groups operating in Uganda. Lewis attributed this largely to the reign of president Yoweri Museveni, who himself started as a rebel. According to Lewis, Museveni understands the importance of controlling the flow of information. As a result, he has installed a “deeply penetrative civilian intelligence network.” Every village in Uganda has a security representative. As a result, no one bothers trying to start a rebel group anymore.
Museveni has been able to maintain security in Uganda by controlling access to information to the point that he can prevent incipient rebel groups from forming in the first place. Lewis, however, noted the negative side of this penetration. Uganda is a very repressive country with few civil liberties or viable opposition parties.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Peace Picks | February 10 – 14
Forging the Army’s Future | February 10, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council for the latest event in its Commanders Series, “Forging the Army’s Future,” a public conversation with General John M. Murray, Commanding General of United States Army Futures Command. The event will take place on Monday, February 10, 2020 from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the Atlantic Council’s Headquarters (1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington, DC 20005).
Since releasing the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the United States has shifted its geopolitical focus toward renewed great-power competition with Russia and China. 2018 also saw the activation of Army Futures Command, designed to prepare today for military challenges decades in the future. The Army identified six key areas for modernization and assigned eight Cross-Functional Teams to see each to fruition. These modernization priorities are designed to support Multi-Domain Operations, the Army’s new concept for future combat across the spectrum of conflict.
Yet one of these priorities–the Next Generation Combat Vehicle–suffered a setback when the Army canceled its solicitation for Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle prototypes in January 2020. Does the cancellation signal early problems or does it demonstrate the success of the high ambitions and learning model that undergirds Army Futures Command? The answer to these questions will depend in large part on the Army’s ability to prioritize and deliver on its ambitious goals.
As the Commanding General of Army Futures Command, General Murray will join us to discuss how Army Futures Command is reinventing innovation in the Army. This conversation will focus on how the Army identifies priority capabilities for this new era of great-power competition, and how it plans to continue doing so for generations to come.
Rohingya– Beyond the Crisis Narrative: Statelessness and the Implications for Myanmar and Bangladesh | February 10, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Council of American Overseas Research Centers | Register Here
Speakers
Mabrur Ahmed is the Founder and Director of Restless Beings, an International Human Rights organization based in London
Rahima Begum is an artist, researcher and Founding Director of the international human rights organisation, Restless Beings
Shireen Huq is a co-founder of Naripokkho, an organization focusing on women’s rights in Bangladesh
Ali Riaz is a Bangladeshi American political scientist and writer. He is a Distinguished Professor at Illinois State University
Samira Siddique is a PhD student in the Energy and Resources Group and Researcher at the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley
Prashanta Tripura is an academic anthropologist turned development professional, who is currently Project Director- Aparajita: Political Empowerment of Women at HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation in Bangladesh
Yasmin Ullah is a Rohingya refugee born in Northern Rakhine state of Myanmar. She currently serves as the President of Rohingya Human Rights Network, a non-profit group advocating to raise public awareness of the human rights violations against Rohingya people
Sanchita Saxena (Moderator) is the Executive Director of the Institute for South Asia Studies at UC Berkeley and the Director of the Subir and Malini Chowdhury Center for Bangladesh Studies under the Institute
A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order | February 10, 2020| 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations, and have created major security and economic challenges for the states caught in between: first and foremost Ukraine, but also Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Current policy approaches toward the regional order—i.e., the set of rules, norms, and institutions that govern the region—have exacerbated today’s disorder and instability. The authors of a new report offer a comprehensive proposal for revising the regional order. The proposal, which addresses the security architecture, economic integration, and regional conflicts, was devised by four groups of experts convened by the RAND Corporation and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe. Each group included representatives from the West, Russia, and the states in between.
Speakers
Alexandra Dienes, Research Associate, Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Vasly Filipchuk, Senior Adviser, International Centre for Policy Studies
Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Cooperation
Yulia Nikitina, Associate Professor, World Politics and Research Fellow, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Paul Schwartz (Moderator), Research Analyst, CAN
Jeffrey Mankoff (Discussant), Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Documentary Film Screening: “On Her Shoulders” | February 11, 2020 | 5:00 PM – 6:35 PM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center, in association with the Embassy of the Czech Republic, are pleased to present the award-winning documentary On Her Shoulders (2018, 94 mins, English subtitles) about the life of Nadia Murad, winner of the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize for her “efforts to end the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war and armed conflict.”
Directed by Alexandria Bombach, the film follows the life and struggle of Murad, a Yazidi woman who was among the 7,000 women and children captured by ISIS in the summer of 2014, and forced to become sex slaves and child soldiers. After surviving the genocide of Yazidis in Northern Iraq, Murad becomes a tireless activist, alerting the world to the massacres and kidnappings in her homeland.
The film is programmed in parallel with the exhibit Speaking Across Mountains: Kurdish Artists in Dialogue and as part of the annual One World International Human Rights Documentary Film Festival held in Prague, one of the largest human rights film festivals in the world.
Tea and baklava will be served at the beginning of the event.
Sanctions Against Russia: Successes, Failures, and Future Prospects | February 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas in 2014, international sanctions have been a key instrument in exerting pressure on the Russian government to end the conflict. However, the current sanctions regime is plagued by a number of flaws and is in need of improvement. Vasyl Filipchuk and Anastacia Galouchka will analyze current sanctions, future prospects, and how the application of sanctions against Russia can be improved going forward in the context of their new report. The Latvian Ambassador to Ukraine H.E. Juris Poikans will provide opening remarks.
Speakers
Vasyl Filipchuk, Senior Advisor, International Centre for Policy Studies
Anastacia Galouchka, Expert on Foreign Policy and International Law, International Centre for Policy Studies
Ambassador Juris Poikans, Ambassador of Latvia to Ukraine
Reflections on Civil – Military Relations: Crises, Comparisons, and Paradoxes | February 11, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 8:30 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Join the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy for the 2020 Conference on Civil-Military Relations. See the schedule online.
This conference will:
- educate the audience on the history of civil-military relations, particularly the legacies of leadership, cultural change, and policy shifts during wartime
- present various dimensions of current civil-military relations debates
- engage the audience on questions of who serves, who is expected to serve, and who should serve in U.S. defense and national security, to include debates on the concepts of national service and the ethos of service
- continue to raise questions of leadership, ethics, and morals within military and civilian command and national service more broadly
Theater of War Productions will return for this conference for a performance of Theater of War: Scenes from Sophocles’ “Philoctetes”. Theater of War is an innovative public health project that presents readings of ancient Greek plays as a catalyst for town hall discussions about the challenges faced by service members, veterans, and their caregivers and families today. The performance of Sophocles’ Philoctetes will be followed by community panelist remarks and a facilitated town hall discussion.
Agenda:
11:00am – 12:00pm Arrivals & Lunch
12:00pm Opening Remarks | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
12:20pm Panel 1 | What We’ve Inherited: Crises in Civil-Military Relations
Moderated by Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Peter Feaver, Duke University
Alice Hunt Friend, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Caitlin Talmadge, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
1:40pm Panel 2 | Civil-Military Relations Beyond the United States
Moderated by Nick Schifrin, PBS NewsHour
Risa Brooks, Marquette University
Eric Heginbotham, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sameer Lalwani, Stimson Center
Daniel Marston, Johns Hopkins SAIS
3:00pm Panel 3 | The Future of National Service
Moderated by Aaron Mehta, Defense News
Jud Crane, National Commission on National, Military, and Public Service
Jason Dempsey, Center for a New American Security
Heidi Urben, U.S. Army
4:10pm Closing Remarks | Managing Paradoxes of American Civil-Military Relations Peter Feaver, Duke University
5:00pm Scenes from Sophocles’ Philoctetes By Theater of War Productions Town Hall Discussion to Follow Off-the-Record
6:30pm Reception
7:30pm Live Podcast Recording with War on the Rocks
Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mara Karlin, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Loren DeJonge Schulman, Center for a New American Security
Paula Thornhill, Johns Hopkins SAIS
After Trump: Defining a Progressive U.S. Policy for the Middle East | February 12, 2020 | 8:30 AM – 11:00 PM | The Century Foundation | Register Here
Approaching the brink of war with Iran in early 2020 has highlighted the risks of not pursuing a progressive U.S. policy approach to the Middle East. This event seeks to set forth a sustainable alternative U.S. foreign policy.
We will examine the animating principles and resulting policies of a more progressive approach for the Middle East. Progressive Middle East policy remains a contested concept among both policymakers and the American public: to some, it means an end to overly militarized policies and reducing U.S. commitments to avoid war; to others, it means greater U.S. investments in solving overseas conflicts, acting to prevent atrocities, and advancing human rights. Still others define it in terms of rethinking U.S. partnerships with authoritarian regimes.
A light breakfast will be served at 8:30 AM followed by keynote remarks beginning at 9:00 AM and an expert panel.
Keynote Speakers:
Senator Christopher Murphy (D-CT) s the junior United States senator for Connecticut.
Representative Ro Khanna (D-CA) represents California’s 17th Congressional District, located in the heart of Silicon Valley, and is serving in his second term.
Introductory Remarks:
Mark Zuckerman, president at The Century Foundation
Panelists:
Michael Wahid Hanna, senior fellow at The Century Foundation
Dina Esfandiary, fellow at The Century Foundation
Sarah Margon, director of U.S. foreign policy at the Open Society Foundations
Melissa Dalton, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond| February 12, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM | Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Janet Lewis is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. Her research examines why and how rebel groups form, with a focus on why many groups fail in the early stages, and what ethnicity has to do with it. Her book on these issues, “How Insurgency Begins: Rebel Group Formation in Uganda and Beyond,” will be published with Cambridge University Press in 2020. Her other projects seek to understand how news and beliefs travel through word-of-mouth networks in rural communities, and how states administer and monitor their peripheral regions.
She received a Ph.D., M.A. in Government from Harvard University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford University.
George F. Kennan and the Establishment of the State of Israel | February 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In the wake of World War II and the Holocaust, public sympathy grew in the United States for the establishment of a Jewish state in Palestine. Yet in a series of memos in 1947 and 1948, George F. Kennan articulated a consensus view among U.S. diplomatic and military leadership that such a state could usher in Soviet influence in the Middle East, undermine access to oil resources in the Arab states and therefore undermine U.S. national interests in the Middle East and around the world. In this talk, Jeffrey Herf will examine Kennan’s memos, the context of their emergence, and their consequences for U.S. foreign policy at the dawn of the Cold War and beyond.
Speaker
Jeffrey Herf, Fellow, Distinguished University Professor, Department of History, University of Maryland, College Park
A Changing Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer | February 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Nobel Peace Prize winner and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has unveiled a new political philosophy for his country: “medemer,” an Amharic word which literally translates as “addition,” or “coming together.” But what are the key principles of medemer, and how can they be applied both domestically and abroad? How does medemer link with the existing Ethiopian political and social structure? And amid ongoing change and volatility, with highly anticipated elections looming, is medemer a path to sustained reform, or merely a political slogan?
During this crucial period of reform and uncertainty in Ethiopia, join USIP and a distinguished panel that includes representatives of the Office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for a look at the questions, possibilities, and problems offered by medemer. Join the conversation with #AChangingEthiopia.
Speakers
Fitsum Arega Gebrekidan, Ambassaador to the U.S., Ethiopia
Lencho Bati, Senior Political, Diplomatic, and Foreign Policy Advisor, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Mamo Mihretu, Senior Adviser on Policy Reforms and Chief Trade Negotiator, Office of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Etana Dinka, Visiting Assistant Professor of African History and Mellon Postdoctoral Fellow, Oberlin College
Aly Verjee (moderator), Senior Advisor, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 19
– FP says one of the key reasons for a rash of Pentagon departures is the toxic environment created by Under Secretary Rood.
– Peter Feaver says public support for the US military is more fragile than expected.
– A Marine worries that the US is once again de-emphasizing the counter insurgency mission but it will be needed.
– CRS has a new report on intelligence community spending.
– Pay close attention to what Chinese diplomats are doing in their expanded role in UN organizations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
