Tag: Cyberwar
Peace Picks | December 21 – December 25, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. The Islamic Defenders Front and Political Polarization in Indonesia | December 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:015 PM ET | Yusof Ishak Institute | Register Here
Amid growing religious polarization since 2019, the return from self-exile of Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) leader Rizieq Shihab to Indonesia in November has revitalized the opposition movement against President Joko Widodo. Islamic populism is set to be a major force at the 2024 presidential election. In the near term, however, Rizieq Shihab’s fate is uncertain as the government seeks to curtail his activities and prevent mass mobilizations in the capital. On December 7 a clash between security services and a convoy in which Rizieq was travelling left six of his followers dead. In this webinar, Dr Quinton Temby analyses these recent developments, drawing on social media data to illustrate how Rizieq’s return has played into online polarization between government and opposition activists. With physical mobilization restricted due to the pandemic, and the details of the recent clash disputed, Twitter has been an arena for hashtag battles between different actors seeking to control the narrative. Dr Temby concludes by reflecting on the prospects for Islamic populism in Indonesia and why social media is likely to be critical to any populist success.
Speakers
Dr Quinton Temby: Visiting Fellow, Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
2. Political Fallout: Nuclear Weapons Testing and the Making of a Global Environmental Crisis | December 21, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 is typically viewed as marking a first step toward nuclear arms control. But Toshihiro Higuchi argues that it was also one of the first international agreements that addressed a truly global, human-induced environmental problem. By tracing a worldwide struggle to determine the biological effects, social acceptability, and policy implications of radioactive fallout, Higuchi reexamines the Cold War in the context of the Anthropocene – an era in which humans are confronting environmental changes of their own making.
Speakers
Toshihiro Higuchi: Assistant Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Christian F. Ostermann, moderator: Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation Project; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen, moderator: Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University. Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association.
3. Cyber War and Cyber Peace: Past and Future Cyber Clashes in the Middle East | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Although the cyber domain is an emerging field of conflict, it is no longer a new frontier – many battles in cyberspace have been fought and it is imperative they be understood to begin imagining how the future of warfare online may look.
As the United States, the Middle East, and policy community globally begin to consider how a Biden administration will approach conflict and cyber conflict in the region, this panel is an opportunity to study the history of cyber warfare in the Middle East as context for the policy challenges that will arise in the next four years. This panel is sponsored by SentinelOne, a cybersecurity solution encompassing AI-powered prevention, detection, response and hunting in a single autonomous platform.
Speakers
Selena Larson: Senior cyber threat analyst, Dragos, Inc.
James Shires: Assistant professor, Institute for Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University
Thom Langford, moderator: Security advocate, SentinelOne
Additional speakers TBD
4. Putin’s playbook: Lessons from the operation to kill Alexei Navalny | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Bellingcat, CNN, the Insider, and der Spiegel have produced an explosive investigative report on the elaborate FSB efforts to poison Alexei Navalny with a Novichok nerve agent. Navalny survived and has resumed his role as an active player, amplifying the identities of the team that allegedly worked to kill him and laying responsibility for the operation at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s feet—all while promising to return to Russia. All of this raises the question: Why does the Kremlin regard Navalny as so large a threat, and when was the line crossed to start plotting his death? What does a recovered and newly active Navalny mean for Russia’s politics, and how will Russia’s relationship change with key states such as Germany, where Navalny has been recuperating? Russia has long struggled to see a viable alternative to Vladimir Putin—is Navalny that alternative?
Speakers
Christo Grozev: Lead Russia Investigator, Bellingcat
Irina Borogan: investigative journalist and Deputy Editor, Agentura.ru
John Sipher: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center; CEO & Co-Founder, Spycraft Entertainment
Ambassador John Herbst, moderator: director of the Eurasia Center
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Stevenson’s army, December 18
I have long been concerned that the US, especially the military, have given priority to cyber offense rather than defense in spending, planning, and thinking. Now we have the massive Russian hack of the US government which looks to me like espionage rather than “war.” [Maybe we need some secret understandings on this. In the analog era, it was OK for countries to steal and bribe to get secrets, but not to kill. And while cyber espionage can give an adversary potential advantages in combat, retaliation should not be deadly.] But the political rhetoric is close to “act of war,” when we should take it as a wake up call to be better at defense and resilience.
NDAA imperiled. It looks as if Trump will wait until Dec 23 to veto the NDAA, forcing Congress to reconvene before noon on Jan. 3 for override votes. House votes first. If it fails, the 59 year record of NDAAs will fall. RollCall has more details.
The administration released a “tri-maritime strategy” paper but can’t explain it.
Interagency fight over order blocking US investments in Chinese firms with military links.
Just over 155 million people voted for the presidential candidates in November. If just 32,000 of them had voted for GOP congressional candidates, the Republicans would have won control of the House.
WaPo has a Biden appointment tracker.
Climate change boosts Russian agriculture.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 16
– Citing “former officials with direct knowledge,” Yahoo News has a detailed exclusive story revealing the Trump Administration’s 2018 presidential finding giving the CIA much greater freedom to launch offensive cyber operations against key adversary countries [including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea] and against critical infrastructure and financial institutions.It says that there are now “lessened … evidentiary requirements” for choosing targets. There is no mention of reporting these activities to Congress, and even the NSC is said to have little oversight role. Nor does there appear to be any provision like the Obama requirement for specific presidential approval of any action that was expected to have “significant consequences.” In my opinion, this is way short of adequate.
The Trump directive apparently repeals and replaces the Obama PDD 20. [Beware before opening this link. Some people say that you could jeopardize a valid security clearance by opening a document like this — Top Secret/Noforn — released by Snowden and not formally declassified] On the other hand, its details have been widely reported over several years.
Readers here know that I have long promoted the “Title 60” idea of applying the Hughes-Ryan model to offensive cyber ops and lethal drone strikes: require presidential approval and congressional notification. Obama went half way in PDD 20. Trump and his NSC won’t even go that far.
In other news, the US is planning even more sanctions on Chinese officials as part of the escalating cold war.
– The sparkplug for the pivot to Asia in the Obama administration, Kurt Campbell, has a new assessment of China’s strategy.
-US may sanction more companies, including Shell Oil, over Nordstream2.
– NBC says WH tried to block Alexander Vindman’s promotion after his impeachment testimony by sending the Pentagon a report that he created a hostile work environment.
– Brookings has an interesting database of states’ ability to handle voting by mail.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 12
– NYT says China is signing deals with Iran for trade and military cooperation.
– Trump discloses covert cyber attack on Russia — see WaPo and NYT followup.
-Some minor but useful congressional reforms listed.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 30
– DNI and DCIA have released statements complaining about leaks regarding Russian bounties to kill US troops. NYT says Trump got written briefing in February. AP says there were reports in 2019.
– Who’ll know? GOP has been boycotting House Intell hearings.
– Australia is beefing up its cyber capabilities.
– NYT has found 70 cases in past decade when people died in police custody, saying “I can’t breathe.”
– I warned against Democratic overconfidence because of what happened in 1988. Stu Rothenberg adds more –notably that the Dukakis-Bentsen lead was part of the convention” bounce.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 25
– NYT says the administration wants to end the longstanding practice of informal notification of Congress regarding proposed arms sales and allow more quick sales.
-SecDef Esper, facing real challenges with WH over personnel, has submitted the army colonel’s list with Alexander Vindman’s name on it.
– China sanction bill passes Senate.
– O’Brien hypes China threat.
– Senate version of NDAA has detailed cyber guidance.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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