Tag: Democracy
The Alliance needs its members to get tough
In advance of the upcoming NATO Leaders Meeting, it is a timely to discuss the Alliance as a political forum and its future cohesion. NATO’s strength and resilience derive from Allies’ shared committment to the values and spirit of the Washington Treaty, namely the principles of democracy, individual liberty, the rule of law, and the development of peaceful international relations. As NATO grapples with a challenging security environment, it must also confront erosion of democratic norms within some member countries, which undermines NATO unity. On April 27, 2021, The Center for Strategic and International Studies convened a panel to discuss prospects for NATO cohesion in light of a changing strategic environment. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Ambassador Muriel Domenach: Permanent Representative of France to NATO
MdB Omid Nouripour: Foreign Policy Spokesperson for the German Green party.
Rachel Ellehuus (Moderator): Deputy Director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program
Heather A. Conley (Introductory Remarks): Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic
Values and Principles Define NATO
One consistent theme of the panel was the centrality of democratic values and ideals for defining the character of the NATO alliance. Ambassador Domenach noted that a lack of ideological and political cohesion across NATO member countries is a detriment to Alliance structure. The increasing failure to agree on basic norms of good governance and democratic rule intensifies tension and undermines meaningful cooperation. Moreover, the failure to agree on basic values undermines the material ability of NATO and its member nations to engage in its core functions of deterrence and defense in two ways. First, ideological rifts are particularly significant in the context of NATO’s organizational structure, which requires unified decision-making. When any one country can block actions by the group, schisms within the group become increasingly problematic. Second, lack of ideological cohesion in NATO undermines credibility because it decreases the likelihood that NATO will be able to act decisively against its enemies.
Nouripour similarly argued that ideological divisions among NATO members has material implications for security. He pointed to Turkey’s current attempts to play the US and Russia off of one another. The most significant manifestation of this strategy of straddling with ideological opponents has been the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. However, Ankara has recently discovered that the black boxes in the S-400 will not allow them to target Russian planes. In essence, then, a NATO ally has ceded its air defense sovereignty to Russia.
Ellehuus pointed out, however, that NATO has not always relied on, or succeeded based on, ideological uniformity. In fact, at the outset NATO included members such as Portugal that did not at the time share the same democratic values as many of the other members. She argued that this might indicate that value cohesion is not necessarily crucial for NATO. However, both Nouripour and Domenach agreed that ideological cohesion is more critical now than it was in the early days of NATO. Nouripour argued that democratic backsliding and the rise of disinformation campaigns and other attempts to actively weaken democracies dictates that a stronger emphasis be placed on maintaining democratic values.
Compelling Good Behavior
One clear weakness of the NATO structure that emerged out of this panel’s discussion is the difficulty that the organization has in compelling good behavior from non-compliant member states. Domenach pointed to suggestions about creating a code of conduct or reviewing compliance with fundamental NATO values. Ellehuus similarly pointed to two proposed articles that would require NATO allies to 1) refrain from politically motivated blockages of NATO business, and 2) to report any interactions with third countries that might affect the security of allies.
However, she also acknowledged that these changes were highly unlikely to pass in any meaningful form, largely because non-compliant members can and most likely will veto any attempt to pass these measures. She also argued that the North Atlantic Council is a valuable forum through which to air disagreements and negotiate solutions. Recent attempts by the NATO Secretary-General have proven fruitful in this regard.
Nouripour disagreed with this assessment to some extent. While he agreed that NATO is unlikely to pass meaningful reforms that allow it to police the conduct of member states, he similarly found the prospect of the North Atlantic Council and the NATO Secretary-General negotiating compliance to be unlikely. Instead, he argued more in favor of direct bilateral and multilateral engagement to push for democratic values. Given the constraints of NATO as an organization, he believes that states acting on a national basis can perhaps create greater leverage with member countries. Ellehuus ultimately agreed that national power might be an effective mechanism through which to encourage compliance
Therefore, while NATO faces a variety of internal and external threats to its political and ideological cohesion, member states are stepping up in innovative ways to tackle the new threats of the 21st century.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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Peace Picks | January 18-22 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Truth and Accountability Post-Insurrection: Where does the country go from here? | January 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM- 11:30AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
On January 6, following a rally where President Trump urged his supporters to “fight much harder” against “bad people” and “show strength,” a mob of rioters aiming to halt the count of Electoral College ballots that would formally seal Joe Biden’s victory violently stormed and overtook the United States Capitol. One Capitol police officer and four pro-Trump extremists lost their lives as a result.
Now, in the aftermath of the insurrection, lawmakers are exploring ways to strip the president of his authority, hold those who participated accountable, and investigate the massive security failures that jeopardized the lives of elected officials and legislative staff. The House of Representatives impeached President Trump for the second time in his term in the absence of Vice President Mike Pence invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from power. Senate leaders are now hashing out parameters for Trump’s trial in the Senate. Some lawmakers are also urging the expulsion of Republican lawmakers who participated in the efforts to overturn the election via the 14th Amendment.
On January 19, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar to discuss the aftermath of the January 6 insurrection. Panelists will assess the options lawmakers are exploring to remove President Trump from office, the impeachment process, how the insurrection affects American democracy, and what it all means for President-elect Biden’s first 100 days in office.
Speakers:
John Hudak: Deputy Director Center for Effective Public Management and Senior Fellow for Governance Studies
Susan Hennessey: Senior Fellow for Governance Studies and Executive Editor of Lawfare
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director Center for Effective Public Management and Senior Fellow for Governance Studies
Rashawn Ray: David M. Rubenstein Fellow for Governance Studies
Molly E. Reynolds: Senior Fellow for Governance Studies
2. Defeating Corruption and Promoting Democracy: The Role of USAID | January 19, 2021 | 2:00 PM- 3:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
USAID has been working on anti-corruption issues for more than 20 years. CSIS published a paper in April of 2020 suggesting that given the Great Power Competition, the United States needs to “get back at the front of the anti-corruption parade” and lead on these issues. Globally corruption is a vote-moving issue. There are enormous costs to corruption, and it holds back private investment and jobs. Ultimately, civil society, religious institutions, the private sector, and governments need to create coalitions to defeat corruption. USAID is a catalytic funder, a convenor, a talent developer, and a policy partner to help make these sorts of changes and coalitions happen. In line with USAID’s longstanding anti-corruption work in Eastern Europe, USAID will be launching its new US-Albania Transparency Academy at this event.
Speakers:
Brock Beirman: Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Europe and Eurasia USAID
Susan K. Fritz: Former Regional Mission Director to Ukraine and Belarus, USAID
Frank Brown: Director of the Anti-Corruption and Governance Center, CIPE
Juela Hamati: Former President, European Democracy Youth Network (EDYN)
3. The Impact of European Policy on the Migration Crisis | January 19, 2021 | 10:00 AM-11:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations |Register Here
The Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations is delighted to invite you to a virtual seminar on the migration crisis and European cooperation.
This is the third seminar of a partnership between the H2020 project MAGYC and ECFR Paris, entitled “Crises, migration and European cooperation”. The recordings of the first two seminars, “How the Covid-19 shaped European migratory governance?” and “Migration and climate change: what can European cooperation achieve?“, are available online.
Speakers:
Thibaut Jaulin: Researcher at Science Po University
Andrew Lebovich: Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
Gerasimos Tsourapas: Senior Lecturer, University of Birmingham
Rym Momtaz (Moderator): France Correspondent, POLITICO
4. United States Presidential Inauguration | January 20, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | United States Capitol- Live Streamed | Watch Here
Per the Twentieth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, Inauguration Day is set for January 20th every four years — that’s a Wednesday in 2021.
The theme of this year’s inauguration is “America United,” an issue that’s long been a central focus for Biden but one that’s taken on added weight in the wake of the violence at the U.S. Capitol earlier this month. The Presidential Inaugural Committee said that the theme “reflects the beginning of a new national journey that restores the soul of America, brings the country together, and creates a path to a brighter future.
5. U.S Pakistan Relations in the Biden Era: A Conversation with Moeed Yusuf | January 21, 2021 | 9:00 AM-10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
After a tense period during the first part of the Trump administration, U.S.-Pakistan relations have improved over the last few years amid the launch of a peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan. However, with U.S. troops drawing down, the future of U.S. relations with Pakistan-which in Washington have long been viewed through the lens of Afghanistan-is uncertain. This online-only event will feature a discussion with Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Pakistan’s national security advisor and special assistant to the prime minister on national security and strategic policy planning. He will discuss Islamabad’s expectations for U.S.-Pakistan relations in the Joe Biden era, and what the situation in Afghanistan may mean for the relationship moving forward. This conversation is moderated by Michael Kugelman.
Speakers:
Moedd Yusuf: National Security Advisor to the Prime Minsiter of Pakistan
Michael Kugelman: Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia Program at the Wilson Center
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Civil resistance requires stamina
In June, U.S. Institute of Peace Program Officer Jonathan Pinckney published From Dissent to Democracy: The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Traditions. The book centers upon political transitions brought about by civil resistance, and attempts to explain why certain resistance movements result in democratization while others do not. To review the book’s core assertions, as well as gauge its applicability to ongoing resistance movements, the US Institute of Peace convened a panel of the following:
Maria Stephan (Moderator): Director, Nonviolent Action, US Institute of Peace
Erica Chenoweth: Berthold Beitz Professor in Human Rights & International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Zachariah Mampilly: Marxe Chair of International Affairs, City University of New York
Hardy Merriman: President & CEO, International Center on Nonviolent Conflict
Jonathan Pinckney: Program Officer, Nonviolent Action, US Institute of Peace
Huda Shafig: Program Director, Karama
Civil Resistance in Writing
Since World War II, there have been more than 300 political transitions. Of these transitions, 78 were brought about by civil resistance. Pinckney’s book examined all of the aforementioned transitions, albeit some in greater detail than others. Pinckney studied three cases closely: Brazil in 1984, Zambia in 1991 and Nepal in 2006.
He found that political transitions initiated through civil resistance were three times more likely to result in democratization than other types of political transitions. Nevertheless, civil resistance transitions were not certain to result in democratization. He identified two key challenges to the onset of democracy: mobilization and maximalism.
Pinckney stressed the importance of maintaining mobilization, as successful resistance movements require targeted and consistent activism. He also cautioned would-be protestors against adopting an all-or-nothing attitude. Instead, Pinckney advocated for moderation and dialogue. Civil resistance is the most direct road from authoritarianism to democracy, but its success is determined by how effectively a resistance movement mobilization is maintained and maximalism is avoided.
Civil Resistance in Theory
In recent years, the prevalence of civil resistance has increased dramatically. Its efficacy, however, has decreased. Chenoweth attributes this unfortunate shift to the manner in which resistance movements currently manifest. Contemporary resistance movements are intent on achieving quick results and consequently lack the ability to organize, engage in negotiations, and ultimately herald a political transformation. Digital organizing and street demonstrations are important but not at the expense of capacity-building, Chenoweth argues.
According to Merriman, movements can address this issue by setting clear expectations. The average civil resistance movement takes three years to conclude, and many resistance movements persist for far longer. The vast majority of participants, however, expect to see results in as little as 3-6 months time. When participants understand the scope of their commitment, Merriman asserts, they are better equipped not only to dismantle existing institutions but also to build new ones.
Civil Resistance in Practice
This is certainly the case in Sudan, where a popular resistance movement has been active for upwards of seven months and succeeded in effecting political change. Despite Sudan’s rich history of citizen protest, the protests were only able to trigger a political transition last year.
In Shafig’s eyes, the ongoing movement has been successful because it is unlike its predecessors. It began outside of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum; participants share a commitment to non-violence; the movement is well-coordinated, with common policy goals; and the movement’s de-centralized nature allows for local leaders to immerse themselves in the movement and tailor it to their respective needs.
In a nod to Pinckney’s book, Shafig also notes that Sudan’s resistance movement has maintained participant mobilization well. Participants engage in continuous activism via neighborhood-based resistance committees. These local committees engage in joint-planning talks with other committees across Sudan, ensuring that support for the transition is widespread. Perhaps Sudan can serve as a model for future civil resistance movements.
To watch the event in full, click here.
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Serbian civil society under attack
Civil society and media organizations in Serbia are facing a government crackdown by means of financial investigations designed for preventing terrorism. Two hundred and thirty (230!) of them have issued the following protest against this government effort to squelch the remnants of Serbia’s post-Milosevic democracy. The US Embassy has protested, politely but firmly. Some EU parliamentarians have also spoken up. Much louder and more persistent protests will be required to get President Vucic and Prime Minister Brnabic to block and reverse this abuse. How about a statement from Foggy Bottom and from the European Council or the Commission?
Civil society and media will not give up the fight for a democratic and free Serbia
The media and civil society organizations demand from the Ministry of Finance and the Administration for the Prevention of Money Laundering to immediately present the grounds for suspicion due to which they ordered the extraordinary collection of information about organizations, media, and individuals from the commercial banks. The article of the law, referred to by the director of the Administration for the Prevention of Money Laundering, states that such inspection should be performed exclusively for organizations for which there are grounds for suspicion of their involvement in the financing of terrorism. Since the list includes numerous organizations and individuals dealing with investigative journalism, protection of human rights, transparency, film production, development of democracy, rule of law and philanthropy, the conclusion is that this is a political abuse of institutions and a dangerous attempt to further collapse the rule of law in Serbia.
The abuse of legal mechanisms and institutions to unlawfully put pressure on the media and civil society organizations is a drastic attack on freedom of association and freedom of information. For years, the government in Serbia has been facing serious criticism from both international and domestic organizations regarding the threat to these two important freedoms. Such an attack on organizations that advocate for establishing Serbia as a state governed by the rule of law with respect for the law and a genuine fight against corruption, is an additional argument that these values are seriously endangered in Serbia. Organizations, media and citizens will not give up the fight for a free and democratic state, regardless of threats and pressures. Such and similar moves by the authorities only further motivate us as citizens to persevere in the defense of our own country.
The media and organizations will take all appropriate legal actions against those involved in this abuse, including the prosecution of those responsible, but above all they will insist on complete and clear answers on how this could have happened. We remind the public that the organizations and media from the list are subject to various types of regular state control, including inspections and rigorous checks of financial operations by the Tax Administration and the National Bank of Serbia, as well as by their own donors. Any legal inspection of the work of organizations is welcome and we will always support it. On the other hand, we will fiercely oppose the abuse of institutions and procedures, because that is our mission – the fight for a democratic and legal state.
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Peace Picks| April 11- April 18
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
Unpacking the Covid-19 Crisis in Africa | April 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
The confirmed cases and fatalities from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) continue to rise in sub-Saharan Africa, creating dire economic and political challenges. As governments in the region scramble to implement containment strategies, manage the economic fallout, and work through a busy election calendar, how can they minimize long-term negative impacts? The CSIS Africa Program invites you to virtually attend the first event in a series of partnerships with premier research institutions across Africa. Experts from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa) and the University of Pretoria join CSIS Africa Program Director, Judd Devermont to discuss the political, economic, and health implications of the coronavirus pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Additional information on speakers will be added closer to the event date.
Speakers:
Dr. Jakkie Cilliers: Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Head of the African Futures and Innovations, Institute for Security Studies
Marius Oosthuizen: Faculty at the Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria
Wafaa El-Sadr: University Professor and Dr. Mathilde Krim-amfAR Chair of Global Health, Columbia University
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
Israeli Democracy at a Crossroads | April 13, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
After a record-breaking three elections in the span of just one year and several weeks of political maneuvering and intrigue, including a constitutional crisis prompted by an unprecedented suspension of the Knesset, the announcement of a new unity deal between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and opposition figure Benny Gantz appears to have put an end to Israel’s longstanding political stalemate. In doing so however it has also gutted Gantz’s opposition Blue and White faction and alienated the Arab-dominated Joint List while ensuring Netanyahu’s premiership until at least September 2021. Any hope of a return to something resembling normalcy meanwhile remains elusive as Israelis continue to grapple with a ballooning public health crisis sparked by the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has brought social, economic, and political life in Israel to a virtual standstill.
Given these varying challenges, what are the prospects for the new “emergency” government in Israel? What will this new arrangement mean for the political opposition in general and for the Joint List in particular? Moreover, what do these developments mean for the future of Israeli democracy and for Israel’s broader role in the Middle East?
Speakers:
Ari Heistein: Researcher and Chief of Staff to the Director, INSS
Dahlia Scheindlin: Co-founder and columnist, +972 Magazine
The Honorable Aida Touma-Sliman: Member, Knesset (Joint List)
Khaled Elgindy (Moderator): Senior fellow and director of the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Oil Market Mayhem Redux: The market and geopolitical implications of the OPEC+ and G20 negotiations | April 13, 2020 | 1:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
An unprecedented crisis in the oil market is looming. With demand in free-fall, a price war bringing oil prices to multi-decade lows, and a flood of oil supplies overwhelming available storage, a consensus to take action is emerging – but the parties have struggled to agree about what type of action and by whom. As OPEC concludes an extraordinary meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC members and Saudi Arabia hosts an emergency meeting of the G20, the intersection of energy markets and geopolitics is shaping how the global community responds to the oil market crisis (and whether it is enough). What emerges from these four days will have a transformative effect on the market long after the coronavirus passes.
As markets digest these moves on Monday, please join the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center for an expert briefing on the details of the OPEC meeting and G20 summit and what those decisions mean for the market, geopolitics, and the future of the oil industry.
Speakers:
Anders Aslund: Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Helima Croft: Managing Director and Global Head of Commodity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
Kristen Fontenrose: Director, Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, Atlantic Council
David Goldwyn: Chair, Energy Advisory Group, Atlantic Council
Randolph Bell (Moderator): Director, Global Energy Center and Richard Morningstar Chair for Global Energy Security, Atlantic Council
Egypt’s Economy, Citizens, and the Pandemic | April 14, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the Middle East’s most populous country, Egypt’s domestic issues will invariably have significant regional ramifications as the country weathers the COVID-19 pandemic. Both domestic and international trade are likely to suffer, and international supply chains are already being disrupted. The international reverberations will hit some of Egypt’s main revenue streams hard, particularly trade via the Suez Canal, remittances from Egyptians working abroad, and the tourism sector.
While the economy is taking major hits at the macro level, things are likely to be as bad at the micro-level. The government appears to be trying hard to get a handle on both the spread of the virus through mitigation efforts such as early school closures, curfews, and other measures. It has also implemented a raft of economic relief measures in order to reduce pressure both on the market and on individuals, all while pressing as many people to work remotely as possible. However, millions cannot afford to work remotely; over 11 million people work in Egypt’s informal economy, without pensions or contracts and limited access to the country’s overburdened health system.
Given these vast and converging challenges, what does Egypt’s economic future hold?
Speakers:
Angus Blair: CIB Professor of Practice, School of Business, American University in Cairo
Laila Iskandar: Former Minister for Urban Renewal and Informal Settlements, Egypt
Yasser El-Naggar: CEO, EN Investment
Mirette F. Mabrouk (Moderator): Director of Egypt Program, MEI
The GCC’s double dilemma: Tackling COVID-19 and falling oil prices| April 14, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are confronting a sharp downturn in economic activity due to the coronavirus outbreak, as the pandemic wreaks havoc across the global economy. However, unlike in other regions of the world, where the economic downturn is expected to be transient, the corresponding sharp fall in global oil prices presents a longer-term challenge to GCC member states.
GCC governments have announced economic stimulus packages totaling $97 billion to help the private sector absorb the shock of the crisis. They now must ensure that this stimulus is applied effectively to meeting the short-term demands of the coronavirus crisis, while tempering the long-term fallout of the drop in oil prices. GCC countries must also redouble their efforts to diversify their economies and set aside petty political differences and work together to mitigate the societal impact of the dual challenges.
The Brookings Doha Center is pleased to invite you to a webinar discussion on the economic challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic poses for the GCC. The discussion will address the following questions: What are the short- and long-term economic implications of the pandemic for GCC economies? How should GCC governments apply their stimulus packages to counter the adverse impacts of the pandemic and the drop in oil prices? What other policy priorities should GCC governments pursue to ameliorate the societal impact of the COVID-19 crisis?
Speakers:
Samantha Gross: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative
Hatim Al Shanfari: Professor of Economics and Finance, Sultan Qaboos University
Nasser Saidi: Founder and President, Nasser Saidi & Associates, Former Lebanese Minister of Economy
Nader Kabbani (Moderator): Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center; Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development
Navigating Iraq’s Political and Economic Turbulence amid Pandemic | April 15, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
A perfect storm has hit Iraq: the Covid-19 virus is spreading throughout the country and overwhelming its healthcare system, a precipitous decline in oil prices is threatening the livelihoods of millions of Iraqis, increasing U.S.-Iran tensions are playing out on Iraqi territory, and a political crisis has stalled the process of government formation for months. On top of all that, millions of Iraqis remain displaced, ISIS still constitutes a major security threat, and pro-Iran militias are increasingly fragmenting, as different groups outbid each other over their loyalty to Tehran and their ability to target the U.S. presence in Iraq. On April 9, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi was named as prime minister designate, the third person to be appointed to the job since Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation last November. He now has 30 days to form a government, a task his two predecessors failed to complete, although he appears to have more support across the Iraqi political spectrum and better chances at success than they did. Faced with these myriad socioeconomic, political, and security challenges, can Iraq maintain its tenuous balance? Will Mr. Al Kadhimi succeed in forming a government? What are the potential short- and medium-term economic scenarios for Iraq in light of the oil price war and decreasing global demand? What is the future of the U.S.-Iraq strategic relationship?
Speakers:
Farhad Alaaldin: Chairman, Iraq Advisory Council (IAC)
Hafsa Halawa: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Yesar Al-Maleki: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Mohammad Radhi Al-Shummary: Professor, Al-Nahrain University
Randa Slim (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
On the Front Lines: How Public Health Systems are Confronting the Covid 19 Crisis in the Middle East | April 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
COVID-19 has the potential to push public healthcare systems in the Middle East past their current capabilities.The number of coronavirus cases in the Middle East has risen to nearly 60,000, double the amount only a week ago. How will this current pandemic impact the region’s health care systems and preparedness for future crises? The Middle East Institute (MEI) will bring together a panel of experts to look beyond the immediate impact of COVID-19 on public healthcare systems in the Middle East. This group of experts will discuss the long term effects on the region’s public health systems and if this will cause them to become more resilient in the face of future threats.
What will this current crisis mean for the future of the region’s health care systems? What steps should public health services be taking now to ensure they will be better prepared for the next pandemic? What is the role of international organizations like the World Health Organization to help regional public health services build resilience into their systems?
Speakers:
Amir Afkhami: Associate professor, George Washington University
Amira Roses: Professor of global health and epidemiology, George Mason University
Ross Harrison (Moderator): Senior fellow, MEI
COVID-19 and Conflicts in the Arab World: A Closer Look at Libya, Syria, and Yemen during the Coronavirus Pandemic| April 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in areas of conflict and war-affected and refugee populations in the Arab world, specifically focusing on Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
Speakers:
Noha Aboueldahab: Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Yara M. Asi: Lecturer of Health Management and Informatics, University of Central Florida
Joost Hiltermann: Program Director, Middle East and North Africa, International Crisis Group
Afrah Nasser: Yemen Researcher, Human Rights Watch
Tamara Kharroub (Moderator): Assistant Executive Director and Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
The Middle East in an Era of Great Power Competition: A Conversation with Barry Posen and Stephen Walt | April 16, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Of all the internal obstacles and external challenges the United States is likely to face in its pursuit of its new foreign policy priority of great power competition, the Middle East might prove to be the biggest. If the region continues to command U.S. attention and resources, Washington will struggle in its efforts to effectively pivot and counter Chinese and Russian ambitions in Asia and Europe, respectively.
How does or should the Middle East fit in America’s new grand strategy? Does the great power competition necessitate an entirely new U.S. approach toward the Middle East? Which U.S. approach best serves Washington’s new global plans?
To answer these questions and many others, the Middle East Institute (MEI) is honored to host a conversation with Professor Barry Posen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Professor Stephen Walt from Harvard University.
Speakers:
Barry Posen: Ford international professor of political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stephen M. Walt: Professor of international affairs, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government
Bilal Saab (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, defense and security program, MEI
Displacement During COVID-19: an Urgent Humanitarian Imperative | April 17, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As COVID-19 continues to devastate global economies and health systems with no end in sight, refugees and IDPs are among the world’s most vulnerable communities. Already facing tremendous challenges including loss of livelihoods, lack of citizenship, psychological trauma, and discrimination, displaced people in the Middle East must now contend with the pandemic and its devastation on the already-strained healthcare systems and economies of their host countries. Refugees are particularly susceptible to illnesses like COVID due to overcrowding in refugee camps, lack of proper sanitation, food, and water resources, and unprotected movement across borders. Meanwhile, the region’s conflicts, outbreaks of violence, and occupation continue, providing little relief in the most fragile environments.
How are refugees in the Middle East withstanding the virus in countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan? How does the impact of the virus expose existing fragilities in and create new challenges for the region’s healthcare services, particularly for refugee camps, which suffer from overcrowding and lack of proper sanitation? What are the new imperatives for governments and international organizations to provide assistance where it is needed most?
Speakers:
Kieren Barnes: Syrian Country Director, Mercy Corps
Aya Majzoub: Lebanon and Bahrain researcher, Human Rights Watch
Dr. Zaher Sahloul: President and founder, MedGlobal
Randa Slim (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues program, MEI
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Winds of change in Baghdad?
- Will Abadi win a majority?
With the Dawa Party split and no clear allies at his side, Haider al-Abadi’s future as Prime Minster is in doubt without a strong showing by his Victory Alliance at the ballot box. While an electoral win doesn’t necessarily mean taking the premiership (as happened to Ayad Allawi in 2010), the knives will be out for Abadi without a clear victory. - Will Maliki be eclipsed by Ameri?
Even if Abadi’s coalition wins a plurality as polling predicts, there is a second contest for leadership in Shiite politics. Nouri al-Maliki, once “Saddam of the Shiites,” has seen his position sharply decline since his ouster in 2014. Maliki is attempting his comeback at the head of a diminished State of Law Coalition, but his rise is challenged by the entry of militia leader Hadi al-Ameri into politics, who is contesting the position as Iran’s most stringent ally in Iraq. While the Ameri and his alliance of Shiite militias are certain to be a force to be reckoned with no matter the results, a poor showing for Maliki would complete his fall into irrelevance. - Will Hakim and Sadr’s rebranding pay dividends?
One of the more surprising developments in Iraqi politics has been attempts by Shiite leaders to break away from the sectarian narrative toward a reformist angle – a trend evident in ISCI head Ammar al-Hakim abandoning his former party (Iran’s old favorite) and Moqtada al-Sadr’s shock alliance with the (questionably relevant) Iraqi Communist Party. Expect this populist trend to continue if Hakim and Sadr prove it can sway voters. - Is this the debut of a Kurdish opposition?
The disastrous results of last year’s independence referendum, adding to dissatisfaction with runaway corruption in the Kurdistan Regional Government, have greatly damaged the reputation of Iraq’s top Kurdish parties. Tomorrow’s parliamentary elections feature the first test for the newly-formed Nishtiman (Homeland) List, a coalition of Kurdish parties seeking to challenge the traditional KDP-PUK duopoly in regional elections this September. Whether or not Nishtiman emerges with more seats over their rivals, a good performance might enable Baghdad to shut out the traditional Kurdish powers in forming a government. - Is the PUK done for?
Compounding their existing problems, the PUK is weakened by a lingering succession crisis in the wake of Jalal Talabani’s death last October, which led to PUK majordomo Barham Salih’s defection to form his own party. More so than the KDP, the PUK has been on a decline since 2014 – if their voters don’t show up tomorrow the PUK’s influence in Baghdad may be at an end. - Will small parties earn enough to gain influence?
With no existing coalition predicted to win an absolute majority, small parties – the kind that have never tasted political power in Baghdad – could play an outsized role in forming a government. With the prospects of a 2010-style grand Shiite coalition unlikely, small parties could emerge as kingmakers with the latitude to push government in novel directions. - Will turnout be down?
While Iraq is at peace since the defeat of ISIS, the devastation brought by the conflict remains. While Baghdad has designed a system to allow displaced persons to vote in their home elections at any polling station across the country, with an estimated two million people still displaced across Iraq it is unlikely that voter turnout will reach the 62% of previous elections. A reasonable turnout in formerly ISIS-held areas will show if Iraq’s Sunnis have faith in the system to deliver results. - Will violence be down?
With ISIS defeated as a military force, Baghdad’s stage-managing of elections without violence will show the extent of their victory over terrorism. Iraq has never seen parliamentary elections entirely free of terrorist attacks, so even low levels will be a telling sign. - Will there be accusations of fraud?
Since 2014, Baghdad adopted a system of electronic voting equipped with biometric detectors as a means to deter low-level voter fraud. While this may succeed in deterring simple forms of fraud, we will see if it lessens accusations thereof. The existence of vote-buying by prominent parties is widely understood, a fact which a losing party could use as an excuse to delegitimize results.
Ultimately, however, what we learn from the electoral results will be only half of the story – the real test will be in the government formation negotiations to follow. But tomorrow’s elections will set the stage for a new order in Baghdad, and potentially major developments for Iraqi democracy.
PS: For more context, here is the half-hour VoA Encounter show Dr. Daniel Serwer did with Bilal Wahab and Carol Castiel Thursday, before the election:
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