Tag: Democracy and Rule of Law
Sanctioning Syria might work, but not the way it’s done now
The Assad regime and the Syrian economy at large have been under Western sanctions for years, but they have yet to lead to serious concessions. This has caused some analysts and policy makers to favor lifting most sanctions altogether, fearing that their only effect currently is to harm the Syrian civilian population. However, concessions from the Assad regime remain elusive, making this option difficult to realize. In response to these issues and considerations, the Middle East Institute’s Wael Alalwani and Karam Shaar published a paper reviewing US and EU sanctions on Syria earlier this month. On August 24, MEI convened a panel to discuss the report and the issue in general. The discussants agreed that the West lacks focus on the Syrian conflict. Western sanctions regimes lack thought and dedication, causing them to fail at bringing about regime change, while disproportionately harming the Syrian civilian population. Sanctions have a definite function in the fight against injustice in Syria, but their types and application need to be seriously reviewed for them to fulfil it efficiently.
The speakers were:
Natasha Hall
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Jomana Qaddour
Nonresident Senior Fellow & Head of Syria
Atlantic Council
Member
Syrian Constitutional Committee
Karam Shaar
Research Director,
Operations Policy Center (OPC)
Nonresident Scholar,
MEI
Senior Lecturer
Massey University
Andrew Tabler
Matin J. Gross Fellow, Geduld Program on Arab Politics
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
former Senior Advisor to the U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Engagement
Charles Lister (moderator)
Senior Fellow and Director, Syria and Countering Terrorism and Extremism programs
MEI
The report
Karam Shaar summarized the findings of the report:
- Lift certain sanctions and rely more on others. All country or sector-wide sanctions should be lifted, as they hurt civilians the most and can’t be maintained in the long run. These should be lifted in exchange for concessions as soon as possible. On the other hand, targeted sanctions such as travel bans, asset freezes and secondary sanctions should be expanded.
- Implement a more proactive, all-of-Syria policy and focus on it. The current policy lacks focus and dedication.
- Pursue Syrian officials by using universal jurisdiction legislation in Western countries. Only small steps have been taken in this direction.
- Improve the effectiveness of sanctions. This can be done by targeting the deep cadres of the regime, not the tip of the iceberg (e.g. target known security chiefs who aren’t currently sanctioned, rather than a cabinet minister with little actual importance to the regime). The US and EU should also expand their use of secondary sanctions that target third parties who cooperate with or aid sanctioned individuals, even in activities that aren’t technically under sanctions.
- Make realistic demands. It is completely unrealistic for Assad to agree to the current demand, namely a political transition which will inevitably lead to his downfall and possibly even his death. Regime allies will also never favor this option. If this is the aim, far more pressure would be necessary than is currently applied.
Shaar considers the current sanctions policy a lazy attempt by the US and EU to feign an interest in the fate of the Syrian people, while allowing the situation to fester.
In response, Tabler, who was part of designing Syrian sanctions in the US government until recently, emphasized that mistakes are inevitable. However, it is also important to remember that certain decisions might be made based on classified information that the public isn’t privy to. He also considered scrapping all sector-based sanctions unrealistic. Certain sectors must remain sanctioned, although he does admit that there are sanctions that disproportionately harm citizens.
Bypassing sanctions
Natasha Hall turned the panel’s attention to regime efforts to bypass sanctions. North Korea’s ‘Room 39’ works on ways to access hard currency for Pyongyang through drug trafficking, ransomware, etc. The Assad regime’s ‘Room 39’ activities are perhaps more advanced than that already. It gains currency through the expropriation of IDP assets, as well as UN food aid. Qaddour added that the Syrian regime has become a major exporter of the illegal drug Captagon. The value of only the seized Captagon in the Gulf in 2020 was five times that of the legitimate exports of Syria.
Tabler described sanctions as good for the long haul. The threat of military action has a limited shelf life and diminishing deterrent value. However, when challenged by Shaar and Hall, he acknowledged that sanctions are a cat-and-mouse game. They must continuously be updated as those under sanctions discover loopholes to avoid them. Shaar criticized the Biden administration’s decision not to review and update sanctions, but rather continue to implement the Trump administration’s existing package. This has allowed such loopholes to expand.
The UN has also become a threat to the effectiveness of sanctions. Hall mentioned that the UN doesn’t have to adhere to US or EU sanctions and does work with regime insiders to deliver aid. Qaddour pointed out that this year’s UNSC discussion on aid provision led to the inclusion of early recovery assistance for the first time. Such efforts need to be viewed skeptically. If we can ensure strong conditions and follow-up for where this aid goes, it can benefit ordinary Syrians through the reconstruction of hospitals and schools. Otherwise, it is likely to flow into the pockets of companies owned by regime insiders.
Civilian wellbeing
Qaddour emphasized the need to balance the regime and the welfare of normal Syrians. We shouldn’t maintain a philosophy of ‘down with Assad or we burn the country’. Hall also warned that a failure to engage in sanctions as part of a broader strategy would lead to a North Korea on the Mediterranean: a heavily sanctioned regime that perseveres while its population suffers.
However, Qaddour thinks that Syrian citizens opposed to Assad are aware of the good intentions behind the current sanctions. This is particularly true for the Kurdish-held areas, which don’t bear the brunt of the sanctions and where Assad’s propaganda isn’t a factor. Also in regime areas, people tend to have a nuanced perspective. They can see firsthand that whatever wealth does enter the country flows to those in the regime. Their suffering is starkly contrasted with the wealth of regime insiders.
Re-engaging the West
The panel was unanimous in thinking that the West isn’t engaged enough with the Syrian conflict and that its actions reflect that. Hall made clear that there is much more at stake for the West than humanitarian considerations. The war and the Syrian regime cause arms trafficking, drug (Captagon) smuggling, and potentially the trafficking of foreign fighters. Especially if the regime captures Kurdish-held areas, thousands of foreign fighters would come under its jurisdiction. Tabler also feared that the West underprioritizes Syria.
There are those in Washington who favor ending sanctions. Not for love of the Assad regime, but for fear of the effects. Particularly the experience of Iraq in the 1990s and the suffering caused by US sanctions without tangible results inform this idea, according to Hall and Tabler. However, Qaddour pointed out that lifting sanctions without receiving concessions is impossible. It would devastate US and EU credibility in the future, and vindicate authoritarians claiming that the West will lose interest after a while.
Hall also indicated that ending sanctions won’t solve the suffering of the Syrian people. They would still be under the stress of the demographic engineering the Assad regime is engaging in. The expropriations of IDP and regime opponents property while investing reconstruction efforts in loyal areas that aren’t the most in need makes it impossible for many refugees to return to the country. Under these conditions reconstruction won’t succeed: it will lack the human capital that must also be rebuilt. If we lift sanctions now, we would just allow the entrenchment of a system of injustice. Shaar suggested there is no reason at all to lift targeted personal sanctions such as asset freezes. These don’t hurt Syrian civilians.
The panel came to a number of immediate recommendations:
- They agreed that establishing a high-ranking special envoy for Syria would serve to signal US seriousness and allow the sanctions system to be applied in earnest.
- Hall also recommended a comprehensive review of the effects and effectiveness of our current sanctions regimes.
- Shaar was pessimistic about the prospect of enticing European or American governments to take a genuine interest. He believed the best bet is to focus on what Syrians and those that do care about Syrian interests can do without their help.
Watch the recording of the event below:
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Peace Picks | August 30-September 3, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Grim Prospects for Women and Girls in Afghanistan | Aug 31, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Heritage Foundation| Register Here
As the world watched Afghanistan fall to the Taliban in a matter of weeks, one point was clear: the lives of Afghan women and girls would forever be changed. Over the last twenty years, women and girls made tremendous gains by going to school, holding political office, and entering the working world. Hard-won freedoms became a part of everyday life, and Afghan women were actively enjoying them.
With the Taliban back in power, many of these gains will likely be lost. So, what can be done now to safeguard the rights of Afghan women and girls? Join the Heritage Foundation as a distinguished panel of experts tackles the scale of the problem and realistic actions that the United States and the international community can take to mitigate the damage.
Speakers:
Lisa Curtis
Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security
Heela Najibullah
Conflict and Peace Researcher
Author of “Reconciliation and Social Healing in Afghanistan”
Amb. Roya Rahmani
Former Ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States
Nicole Robinson (moderator)
Research Associate, Allison Center for Foreign Policy, The Heritage Foundation
2. #GermanyVotes – One month to go: The 2021 German elections and their implications | Sep 1, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
This event kicks off the Europe Center’s #GermanyVotes: The Superwahljahr Series, a collection of virtual and hybrid events focusing on Germany’s upcoming federal elections. Germans head to the polls on September 26 to pick a new government at a crucial moment in German politics. The elections will mark more than the usual electoral turnover as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down after sixteen years at the helm of Europe’s largest political and economic power.
The panel will discuss what changes a new government and leadership in Berlin will bring about for Germany, Europe, and the transatlantic alliance. Against the backdrop of a still-new US administration, global crises including the impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the COVID-19 pandemic, and new challenges to the country’s economic model, what new vision will a future German government and chancellor forge for Germany and its place in the world?
Speakers:
Tyson Barker
Head, Technology and Global Affairs Program, German Council on Foreign Relations
Constanze Stelzenmüller
Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe; Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and trans-Atlantic Relations, Brookings Institution
Ines Pohl (moderator)
Washington Bureau Chief, Deutsche Welle
- The 9/11 Attacks from a Historical Perspective | Sep 2, 2021 | 7:45 AM EST | Royal United Services Institute | Register Here
The attacks by the Al Qaeda terrorist organisation on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon, on 11 September 2001 were cataclysmic in totally changing the global strategic environment. This event will commemorate the 20th anniversary.
Speakers:
Prof. Peter Neumann
Professor of Security Studies, Department of War Studies, King’s College London; Senior Associate Fellow, RUSI
Suzanne Raine
Trustee, RUSI
Sir John Scarlett KCMG OBE
Distinguished Fellow, RUSI; Former Chief, MI6
- Tunisia – What Now? | Sep 2, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here
Tunisia, the lone democracy remaining from the Arab Spring, is at a crossroads. The Covid-19 pandemic devastated an already struggling economy, while the political system has grown increasingly ineffectual. Last month, Tunisia’s president Kais Saied suspended the parliament, sacked the prime minister, and significantly increased his own power for 30 days, and on August 23 he extended those moves indefinitely.
What does the future hold for Tunisia? What can the United States and its allies, who together have invested billions of dollars in the Tunisian democratic experiment, do to support Tunisia in its crisis?
Speakers:
Congressman David Price (D-NC)
Chairman, House Democracy Partnership; Member, House Appropriations Subcommittee on State Foreign Operations, and Related Programs
Bowman Cutter
Chairman, the Tunisian Enterprise Fund
Mohamed Malouche
Chairman, Tunisian American Young Professionals
Lobna Jeribi
Founder and President, Solidar Tunisia
Shawna Bader-Blau
Executive Director, Solidarity Center
Jon B. Alterman
Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program, CSIS
Marti Flacks
Director and Senior Fellow, Human Rights Initiative, CSIS
5. Climate Change: Entry Point for Regional Peace in the Middle East | Sep 2, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Clingendael Institute | Register Here
Climate change is hitting the Middle East region hard with unbearable temperatures, water scarcity, desertification and saltwater intrusion undermining local food production. After the recent eruption of violence the need to address underlying stresses of grievances of people living in the region is mentioned as a factor that deserves extra attention. Whereas conflicts over identity and history are hard to overcome, it may still be possible to enter into renewed dialogues over how to build resilience against climate change and use renewables to enhance the level of energy security that could be used for air conditioning and water desalination. In a region prone to tensions, climate change is a common enemy that people in the region are facing.
By using practical examples, this online event will consider how a focus on climate adaptation and mitigation could be used as an entry point for bringing together people that otherwise might hardly talk to each other. What can they gain from entering into a dialogue over better management and distribution of scarce natural resources, and may this also foster a more general spirit of mutual understanding?
Speakers:
Yana Abu Taleb
Director, EcoPeace Middle East – Jordan
Rene van Nes
Head, Division of Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support, European External Action Service
Prof. Alon Tal
Member, Knesset
Dr. Shaddad Attili
Advisor ranking Minister, Negotiations Support Department, PLO
Louise van Schaik (moderator)
Head, EU & Global Affairs Unit, the Clingendael Institute
Tobias von Lossow (Q&A)
Research Fellow, the Clingendael Institute
6. Syria Today: How Assad “Won” beyond the Military | Sep 2, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to announce a panel discussion featuring contributors to The Middle East Journal’s 2021 Spring and Summer Issues. As the civil war in Syria endures after a decade of conflict, Bashar al-Assad continues to pursue his consolidation of authority and regime legitimization. Aside from military tactics, Assad has diversified his approach to this pursuit through a number of tactics, including swaying influential social and religious leaders to support state security measures and depending on foreign aid to support the reconstruction of the country. A panel of journal contributors will join to discuss these broader themes featured in their articles and delve deeper into the internal workings of the Syrian regime.
Speakers:
Rahaf Aldoughli
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Lecturer, Middle East and North African Studies, Lancaster University
Guy Burton
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Visiting Fellow, LSE Middle East Centre
Eric Lob
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University
Emma Beals (moderator)
Non-resident scholar, MEI
7. Prospects for US-Iran Relations under Raisi | Sep 2, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
The Iranian Studies Unit of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and Arab Center Washington DC invite you to a lecture by Dr. Vali Nasr on the prospects for US-Iran relations under the Ebrahim Raisi and Joe Biden Administrations. Dr. Nasr is the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.
Speakers:
Vali Nasr (speaker)
Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Khalil E. Jahshan (moderator)
Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
Mehran Kamrava (moderator)
Chair, Iranian Studies Unit, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
8. Learning the Lessons of Afghanistan | Sep 2, 2021 | 7:00 PM EST | Institute for Policy Studies | Register Here
IPS’ Fellow, Phyllis Bennis will be featured in a webinar series, presented by Massachusetts Peace Action. A forum of three deeply knowledgeable speakers who will give their response to these themes and their suggested lessons.
Speakers:
Kathy Kelly
Nonviolent activist
Phyllis Bennis
Middle East Politics Specialist, Institute for Policy Studies
Chris Velazquez
Afghanistan War veteran; Digital Director, Veterans for Peace
Will Hopkins (moderator)
New Hampshire Peace Action
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Stevenson’s army, August 12
– Belarus rejected US proposed ambassador.
– China punished Lithuania over Taiwan.
– FP assesses problems in Afghanistan’s forces.
– FWIW: Here’s the Trump-Taliban peace agreement.
-CBO says debt limit likely to be reached in Oct or Nov
– Data for redistricting to be released today.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 11
– Lured by the prospect of an August recess, the Senate approved the infrastructure package and, after only 14 hours of votes, and 47 amendments, approved the budget resolution intended to pave the way for a filibuster-proof reconciliation bill.
-WaPo reports an intelligence assessment says Kabul could be overrun in 6-12 months. The reporters give no hints of their sources, but I would note that Senators got a secret briefing on Afghanistan on Monday.
– Politico reports that the administration has made a major effort to fill Senior Executive Service positions across government.
– Meanwhile, Senator Cruz [R-TX] still blocks many State Dept nominations because of his opposition to the administration’s NordStream2 policy. [Here’s a CRS report from June, shortly before the Biden-Merkel deal on the project.]
– Nobody blocked former SAIS Prof Mara Karlin, who was confirmed yesterday.
– Biden’s promised “Summit of Democracies” is now set for December.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | August 2-6, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Restoring a federal governance system in Sudan | Aug 2, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | Chatham House | Register Here
The signing of the Juba Peace Agreement in October 2020, and a constitutional decree issued in March 2021 by the Chairman of the Sovereign Council, are both significant markers towards the restoration of a federal governance system in Sudan. Establishing a decentralized system of governance that bridges the development gap between the centre and the regions is a significant challenge. But it is hoped that the genuine devolution of power will support peace-building, result in more equitable distribution of wealth and resources, and amplify local priorities in Sudan’s regions.
At this event, panellists will discuss the implementation of a new federal governance architecture in Sudan, the establishment of structures that will ensure more equitable development across the country and priorities for local governance.
Speakers:
Hon. Adeeb Yousif
Governor of Central Darfur, Republic of Sudan
Anwar Elhaj
Researcher and Political Analyst
Dr. Mona Mohamed Taha Ayoub
Lecturer, Institute of Public Administration and Federalism, University of Khartoum
Dr. Louise Walker
Chargé d’Affaires, British Embassy in Sudan
Ahmed Soliman (Chair)
Research Fellow at the Africa Programme, Chatham House
- Turkey-Israel relations in a changing geopolitical landscape | Aug 4, 2021 | 8:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Relations between Turkey and Israel have been historically low since a diplomatic rift in 2010, characterized by an atmosphere of mutual distrust and punctuated by recurring crises. Historically, as the United States’ two closest allies in the region, Turkey and Israel had enjoyed a close strategic relationship. Now, with changing regional dynamics in the form of the Abraham Accords, mutual concerns about the Syrian War and Iran’s role in the region, and the recent change in Israel’s government present new opportunities and environments for the two countries to engage in dialogue.
This panel will discuss the outlook for the relation between these two regional powers.
Speakers:
Jonathan H. Ferziger
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Former Bloomberg Middle East Correspondent
Amb. Mithat Rende
Former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Turkey to the OECD
Prof. Brenda Shaffer
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
Amb. Matthew J. Bryza (moderator)
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council IN TURKEY, Global Energy Center & Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Defne Arslan (welcoming remarks)
Director, Atlantic Council IN TURKEY, Atlantic Council
- Enhancing security in the Black Sea: The future of security cooperation | Aug 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Since Moscow launched its war on Ukraine in 2014, NATO has taken substantial steps to bolster security for its eastern members, particularly with a stronger presence in the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania. The NATO approach to security in the Baltic Sea has been comprehensive, as all NATO members in the region and other states recognize the dangers posed by a revisionist Kremlin. But NATO efforts along the southern flank, in the Black Sea region, are not as far along.
This panel will discuss NATO’s role in the Black Sea region and what security cooperation among these states will look like in the future.
Speakers:
Leah Scheunemann (welcoming remarks)
Deputy Director, Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Alton Buland
Director, South and Central Europe, US Department of Defense
Dr. Can Kasapoğlu
Director of Security and Defense Research, The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM)
Ambassador Elena Poptodorova
Vice President, Atlantic Club of Bulgaria
Dr. Harlan Ullman
Senior Advisor, Atlantic Council; Chairman, The Killowen Group
Irina Zidaru
Director General for Strategic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania
Amb. John Herbst (moderator)
Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
- Why Tunisia’s democratic transition still matters? | Aug 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Chatham House | Register Here
Late on Sunday 25 July 2021, the 64th anniversary of the proclamation of the Tunisian Republic, the Tunisian president, Kais Saied declared he will assume the executive power in country, dismissing the government of the Prime Minster Hichem Mechichi and suspending the parliament. He also declared the suspension of the legal immunity of parliament members and taking control of the general prosecutor’s office.
Struggle over powers and mandates has been characteristic of the Tunisian political system over the past decade. Since the eruption of the Tunisian revolution in 2011, significant political progress towards democracy has been achieved. However, over the past year, Tunisia has witnessed disagreements over cabinet reshuffles and control of the security forces, complicating the efforts to handle a recent fierce COVID-19 wave, structural economic hardship and a looming fiscal crisis. Are the shaky political progress and the sluggish economic progress a threat to the nascent democratic transition in Tunisia? Or are the ongoing developments part of Tunisia’s democratization process?
The webinar will explore the factors that paved the way to the dramatic moment of the evening of 25 July 2021, assess the options for Tunisia’s democratic transition, and why this transition is still relevant in the first place.
Speakers:
Dr Laryssa Chomiak
Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Fadil Aliriza
Editor In Chief, Meshkal
Prof Daniel Brumberg
Director of Democracy and Governance Studies, Georgetown University; Non-resident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Aymen Bessalah
Advocacy and Policy Analyst, Al Bawsala
Dr Lina Khatib (moderator)
Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
- A New Transatlantic Policy Approach Towards the Western Balkans | Aug 4, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here
As the Biden administration pledges to work closely with its European allies, new policy approaches, development tools, and dialogue mechanisms to revitalize transatlantic policy across the region are essential as these countries grapple with weak institutions, endemic corruption, democratic backsliding, and are increasingly influenced by strategic competition.
The panel will engage in an in-depth regional conversation that explores German policy toward the region and how the U.S. and Germany and the EU can achieve better policy outcomes in the Western Balkans.
Speakers:
MdB Peter Beyer
Coordinator of Transatlantic Cooperation, German Federal Foreign Office; Western Balkans Rapporteur, German Parliament
James O’Brien
Vice Chair, Albright Stonebridge Group
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic & Director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Paul Linnarz (opening remarks)
Director, Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung Office USA
- Tunisia’s Constitutional Crisis and Yearning for Democracy in Northwest Africa | Aug 5, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
On July 25, 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied fired the prime minister and suspended Parliament in what some have called a coup. The move followed nationwide protests demanding the premier’s resignation and the dissolution of the parliament as the coronavirus outbreak pushed the healthcare system to collapse and worsened economic conditions.
In light of these developments in Tunisia, site of the Arab Spring’s only democratic success story, Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the status of democratization in Northwest Africa, specifically focusing on Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, and Morocco. Panelists will discuss the implications of President Saied’s move and its constitutionality, the state of democratization in the region and the impact of events in Tunisia, the role and interventions by regional powers like Egypt and Gulf countries, and policy recommendation to support democratic processes and governance reform across Northwest Africa.
Speakers:
Yasmina Abouzzohour
Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Khaoula Ben Gayesse
Tunisian Journalist
Dalia Ghanem Yazbeck
Resident Scholar, Carnegie Middle East Center
- Pakistan’s National Security Outlook: A Conversation with Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf | Aug 5, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Since the country’s founding, Pakistan’s national security priorities have been largely defined by the realities of its geopolitical neighborhood. Now, with escalating violence in Afghanistan, intensifying competition between the United States and China, limited hopes for rapprochement with India, and the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan’s neighborhood is evolving — and Pakistan’s national security approach will have to evolve with it.
This discussion with Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf will look at what these developments mean for Pakistan’s national security outlook towards its neighbors and its relationship with the United States, as well as how the pandemic impacts Pakistan’s security and economic policy.
Speakers:
Dr. Moeed Yusuf
National Security Advisor, Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Hon. Stephen J. Hadley (moderator)
Chair of the Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Reversal of the progress for women and the press in Afghanistan is imminent
Nearly two decades ago, Bernard-Henri Lévy spent a month in Afghanistan shortly after Taliban rule had been removed and wrote an extensive report for the French government. In it he outlined the challenges, but more importantly the opportunities now available for modernizing and improving the lives of Afghans. Now, with the Western presence in Afghanistan drawing to a close, Lévy is publishing a book reflecting on the report and the years that followed. With an introduction by former US General David Petraeus, Lévy assesses the successes and mistakes that occurred in Afghanistan, and reflects on the threats facing it now that renewed Taliban rule seems imminent.
The Middle East Institute organized a seminar July 26 with Lévy, Petraeus and two discussants to discuss the origins of the report and to assess the last twenty years in Afghanistan. The panel agreed that much has been achieved in women’s rights, civil society, and the free press, but that all of these achievements will be reversed as the Taliban returns to power.
The speakers were:
Gen. (ret.) David Petraeus
Former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan;
former director
Central Intelligence Agency
Bernard-Henri Lévy
Philosopher, journalist, filmmaker, and public intellectual
Javid Ahmad
Ambassador of Afghanistan to the United Arab Emirates;
non-resident senior fellow
Atlantic Council
Marvin Weinbaum (moderator)
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies
MEI
Paul Salem (introduction)
President
MEI
Lévy’s report 20 years on
Lévy gave a behind the scenes insight into the origins of his remarkable 2002 assignment. “Even in France”, he emphasized, it isn’t normal for a philosopher to be tasked with making a report such as this. It came to be because Lévy had met with Afghan guerilla leader and later Minister of Defense Massoud several times since the 1980s, and had arranged for him to meet French president Chirac in 2001. Massoud was defending the Panjshir Valley from the Taliban at the time. At the last moment, Chirac decided not to meet with Massoud, and he instead met with the French Foreign Minister and spoke to the European Parliament. He warned of the ties between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and of their growing plans against the West. Five months later, Massoud was assassinated and two days later the 9/11 attacks on the United States took place. After victory against the Taliban was achieved, Chirac called on Lévy to write his report and outline how France could participate in building of a new Afghanistan. According to Lévy, this was partially due to his disappointment over failing to meet with Massoud before his death.
In the report, Lévy aimed to encourage France to take up an active role. In his introduction, Petraeus summarized the contents of the report. Its core recommendations were two-fold:
- Build a centralized state with institutions such as an army, a police force, and public agencies in order to counter the rule of warlords.
- Circumvent ‘stubborn mullahs’ by forming a sort of ‘Black Hussar’ corps made up of teachers, doctors, civil engineers, and other educated citizens. These should be sent out to the most remote provinces to spread republican values at the grassroots level.
Petraeus reflected that it is difficult to assess to what extent France followed Lévy‘s recommendations because the war effort in Afghanistan became entirely US-led, particularly by the time Petraeus took command in 2010. Nonetheless, his report tells us a great deal about what might have been done by both France and the US.
Missed opportunities and mistakes
All panelists agreed that the occupation of Afghanistan generated many mistakes. Lévy even went so far as to say they’re innumerable and decided to forgo naming them, focusing instead on the now threatened achievements, mentioned below. Ambassador Javid Ahmad did elaborate on two key dependencies established by the US that Afghanistan has been unable to shake to this day.
- A reliance on ‘warlords’. Ahmad emphasized that this is a broad term that today indicates most of the country’s organized crime, kleptocratic governance, and terrorist financing. In the early days, these warlords and power brokers were seen as the only option for effective governance in Afghanistan. This established an entrenched, toxic, kleptocratic power dynamic which is similar to the situation in the 1990s.
- Reliance on Pakistan. Ahmad considers this the core of the failure of the mission in Afghanistan. The US has failed to identify Pakistan as either a ‘fickle friend’ or even a ‘clever enemy’. Pakistani activity in Afghanistan consists of a large military force of which the Taliban are one part. It amounts to an effective invasion. Pakistan today doesn’t seek a political settlement. Instead, it aims for a military settlement that recognizes Taliban gains and then builds a political settlement.
Other minor mistakes include starting the training of Afghan forces late and focusing on quantity rather than quality. Additionally, Afghan forces were loosely modeled after the US forces, which rely heavily on air force. However, Afghanistan barely had an air force, and therefore became even more reliant on the United States for success.
Petraeus recognized several of these issues. The US effort failed in combating the Taliban efficiently. The enemy lacked urgency. It had sanctuary in Pakistan. There is a reason that the Taliban leadership is known as the Quetta Shura, not to mention the Peshawar Shura (named for cities in Pakistan). Petraeus describes this as the most challenging issue in the country. The US effort also lagged in resources because of the drain of Iraq. Only in 2010 did Afghanistan receive the appropriate resources.
Achievements
The panel all agreed that there have been many significant successes in Afghanistan. Petraeus emphasized that the original mission was to eliminate Al Qaeda’s sanctuary in Afghanistan, which succeeded. Afterwards, the continued presence was partially aimed at preventing a return of that sanctuary, which was also successful.
Along with Lévy and Weinbaum, he emphasized the many civil advancements. Women’s rights and education improved massively, as did the spread of modern technology, healthcare, and infrastructure. Lévy is particularly struck by the strength of the Afghan press, particularly TOLOnews. He praised the brave journalists that use a freedom of speech and investigation that would have been unimaginable previously.
Imminent reversal
The key issue that kept returning, however, was that all of these achievements are now likely to be reversed at a rapid pace. The Western withdrawal from Afghanistan has already led to Taliban victories. The panel feared that much worse is to come. Petraeus lamented that America must learn that “endless wars do not end with a withdrawal or drawdown of American involvement.” In Afghanistan the fight is worsening. When fighting Islamic extremism, it is impossible to win in a traditional military sense. Instead, you need to keep pressure on even after the enemy is entirely destroyed. Petraeus therefore argued for a “sustained, sustainable position.” He believes that such a position had been achieved in recent years, and that the U.S. “will come to regret our decision to draw down our forces.” He fears “it will usher back in very violent civil war which will lead to millions of refugees, terrible loss of lives and bloodshed targeting those that helped us during our time in the country, and other challenges.”
Ahmad observed that Afghans tend to be optimistic about the achievements of the last decades. They see Afghanistan as a glass half-full. However, they fear that the glass half-full won’t matter if we’re going to throw the glass away as the Taliban advance. Lévy considers the withdrawal a betrayal by America and the West in general of its allies in Afghanistan. “The progress was considerable. The task well-achieved was huge. We were on the good road. We decided to erase all that and to quit.”
Watch the recording of the event here:
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