Tag: Democracy and Rule of Law
Americans, welcome to the 4th Reich!
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, writes:
I hope I am wrong. But if Trump and his acolytes implement even 1/3 of the promises and projects he has set forth in Project 2025 and otherwise supported, the USA, as we knew it, will become a dying ember. He will sacrifice our honor, pride and principles on his transactional altar.
His isolationist foreign policy will relegate the US to a bit player to be ignored or pushed around.
Ukraine and Taiwan abandoned
Ukraine and Taiwan will be the first victims of his failure to stay resolute.
Imagine The Greatest Generation refusing to come to protect the sovereignty of European and Asian nations during World War II. Our nation would not have risen to the pinnacle of its success and power had our forefathers not accepted their responsibilities. They would have been guilty of sacrificing the lives of tens of millions of people due to sheer cowardice.
The ripple effect
Failure to back Ukraine and Taiwan will lead to further Russian encroachments. These will include Moldova, Georgia, and the Baltics. They will also affect Central Europe as well as Chinese control over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Our EU and Asian allies will lose all confidence in our nation. He will unchain Israel. The reaction by the surrounding countries will fan the flames of a regional conflict. Trump’s transactional approach will bring about another Balkan conflict leading to a Greater Serbia aligned with Russia.
Russia rescued
Putin and gang are breathing a huge sigh of relief. They are congratulating themselves for their flood of misinformation and disinformation pushing voters toward Trump. What a reversal of fortunes, just as Putin and Russia were facing economic and political disaster.
Some might welcome an end to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. But remember, that the Russia violated the terms of the Minsk Agreements of 2014-2015. Putin used that agreement as a temporary pause to relaunch his second invasion of Ukraine in 2021. Any future agreement would allow Russia to rebuild to attack not only Ukraine but also Moldova and Georgia.
The domestic agenda: (in)justice
For those more interested in Trump’s domestic agenda, read the provisions of Project 2025, which outlines his plans. They essentially would undermine the foundations of our democracy and economy.
– Perhaps the most venal proposal is to replace professional civil servants in the government with party hacks. This is the case in Russia, China, Hungary, and other authoritarian regimes. Trump will use executive authority to impose personnel in the Departments of Justice, State, and Defense as well as the FBI and National Security Agency. There will no longer be any professional objectivity. He will sacrifice to party loyalty, reminiscent of German Nazis and Russian/Chinese Communist Party control.
– Trump will use such control to persecute anyone who opposes him. These are the people he calls the “enemy within,” an oft used Nazi tactic in the 1930s and 1940s. He would go after Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, General Milley, and others. His likely pick for US Attorney General has already suggested that New York State Attorney General Trish James be sent to prison.
Trump is likely to replace Supreme Court Justice Thomas with Eileen Cannon, a judge for the District Court of Florida. She slow walked and created obstacles to Trump’s prosecution for illegal possession of classified documents. Trump may be able to walk away from his 34 cases of felony fraud as we as the charges of sexual assault. Equal justice before the law does not seem to apply to Trump.
Trump has said he will pardon those found guilty of federal crimes associated with the January 6 riot, which he fomented.
The domestic agenda: the economy
– The economy was one of the major reasons for Harris’ defeat, though the US economy out-performed all other major industrialized nations after the epidemic. The public focused however on short term inflation issues rather than the longer term picture.
The Trump economic policy will bring pain to all Americans. His tariffs will make you pay $2600 more per year for consumer goods. Not to mention the impact on our national debt.
The domestic agenda: immigration
If that doesn’t kill our economy, then his plan for mass deportations will. The immediate cost is some $80-250 billion a year, not to mention destroying labor required for agricultural fields, hospital care, and other lower level jobs. These folks also contribute to your Social Security. These costs, plus Trump tax cuts, will add trillions to the national budget and debt. How will he pay for it? Watch health, social security and education come under the hatchet! If you thought Covid was bad, wait until RFK Jr becomes Secretary of Health.
– Beware the presence of the “eminence grise” Elon Musk, whom Trump is expected to make his efficiency czar. Of course, efficiencies can and should be sought. However, with the fox in charge of the chicken coop, expect the Department of Education to be a victim, as well as Health and Welfare and Social Social Security.
– Directly related is my concern about the rise of plutocracy and the new oligarchs. Usually, we think of Russian oligarchs and their outsize influence on national politics. The Supreme Court ruling, Citizens United, empowered the ultra wealthy by allowing unlimited money to go into Political Action Committees. This directly undermines the principle of one person, one vote. With few exceptions, the oligarchs drive economic decisions without due concern to the average citizen. Musk now censors opinions on X that don’t match his views. With the high tariffs on China, his Tesla stocks will sky rocket.
The domestic agenda: society and environment
– Women, minorities and youth will be relegated to second class citizens. Women have fought back and won some abortion case issues in some states. Yet the misogyny and racism of MAGA will grow and The Handmaiden’s Tale might not be just an apocalyptic story.
– Let us not forget the environment. Trump will reverse whatever progress we have made. Air, land and water pollution will get worse, affecting our health and that of the rest of the world.
Angrier and more aggressive
Of course, I could be wrong. Trump might listen to his better angels. He might negotiate peace agreements in the Middle East and Balkans. He might actually compromise on some domestic issues and be inclusive of others.
But forgive me, if I doubt it. The doubts are based on his previous performance, which relied on divide and rule, attacking “others,” and undermining the rule of law and foundations of our government. He has gotten angrier, more aggressive, and more racist.
I, therefore conclude with a line from the Monk TV series. I may be wrong, but I don’t think so.
There will be buyer’s remorse. Americans, welcome to the Fourth Reich!
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Wrong and wrong, maybe wrong again?
I could of course be wrong again. But that’s the gloomy picture I am seeing on the day after an election gone wrong.
I was 100% wrong about the outcome of this election. I expected Harris to win the battleground states. She lost them. I expected her to win the popular vote by a wide margin. It’s not yet clear, but it appears she lost it.
I should have known better
I spent the last week in deep red Hall County, Georgia, doing “voter protection” for the Georgia Democratic Party. That entails monitoring paper ballot processing as well as helping adjudicate ambiguously marked ballots. I also duplicated a few dozen so that the scanner can read them. This is done in cooperation with Republicans and County election officials. Yesterday I was a poll watcher in a precinct whose voters include both a retirement community and mostly Mexican immigrants. The electoral mechanism both in the county government center and at the polling place was professional, efficient, and thus boring.
The demographics were more interesting. Hall is a county of more than 42,000 people that depends heavily on two industries. Chickens are first. Medicine is second. Both industries use large numbers of Mexican immigrants. There are not many native-born Americans feeding and slaughtering the chickens or tending the bed pans. Nor I imagine would you get on well doing construction, another thriving sector, if you didn’t speak Spanish.
By the time I got to the polling center yesterday about 11 am the early rush was over. Mid-day belonged mainly to the retirees, many of whom looked like they were patrons of the medical center. The late afternoon saw a rush of mostly younger Mexican Americans. A young US-born Mexican American poll worker provided translation whenever needed. I observed no tension of any sort between the two demographics. The mostly retired poll workers were impeccably correct and helpful to the immigrants, all of whom were US citizens. I hope they all recognized the symbiosis between the two communities.
My precinct voted more than 60% for Trump. Symbiosis doesn’t extend to the ballot box. I have no doubt about where most of the Trump and Harris votes came from.
It’s identity politics
Trump has found a way to make voting for him a question of identity. His racist dog whistles were vital to his first election. His macho man displays are vital to this second, as they shifted male votes in his direction. I find both difficult to understand, as I don’t regard white, male identity as anything more than an arbitrary classification. You could just as well call me short and old, with much more physical evidence to back the claim. I’m not proud of being white, male, short, or old.
I am proud of being an American. To me, that means having lots of individual rights and collective responsibilities. During my lifetime, I have seen the rights expanded. Younger people, Blacks, Latinos, women, and LGBTQ Americans now enjoy far more freedom than they did in my 1950s childhood. It seems to me the responsibility of white males to adjust to those changes. “All men are created equal” is not ambiguous (even if it should now read “all people”). “Make America Great Again” is a slogan that appeals to those who want to return to segregated, male-dominated, heterosexual America. I don’t share that aspiration.
I expect Trump to try to fulfill many of his promises. He made them to cater to interest groups that own him. He will try to deport large numbers of undocumented immigrants and end asylum. As President, Trump will impose more tariffs, raising the cost of living and inducing retaliation by other countries. He will fire large numbers of civil servants. His allies in Congress will try to end abortion country-wide and repeal Obamacare. They will give more tax relief to the rich and burden the middle class. Trump will welcome cryptocurrencies and try to manipulate the Federal Reserve, undermining monetary stability. His Supreme Court nominees will be people prepared to adjust their jurisprudence to his policy preferences.
I could be wrong again
As bad as I think the re-election of Trump is for America, I fear it is worse for the world. Trump will do at least some of what he has promised. We will see an end to American support for Ukraine and surrender of part of it to Putin. That will encourage Russia to try again in Moldova or the Baltics. He will withdraw American troops from South Korea and Japan, encouraging them to get their own nuclear weapons.
The Balkans, which concern many of my readers, will not be top priority. But Trump’s re-election will encourage ethnonationalists throughout the region. If Ukraine is partitioned, why shouldn’t Serbia to try to capture northern Kosovo and Republika Srpska? Why shouldn’t Kosovo join Albania? Washington might even help. War will be a real possibility. Ethnic cleansing and state collapse will follow. All the while, the Trump family will be benefiting financially from Jared Kushner’s Saudi-financed investments in Serbia and Albania.
In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will get Trump’s full support. The new Trump Administration will not restrain Israel in Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon. Trump will likely encourage military confrontation with Iran. That is the only option left to deter Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Trump will try to get the Saudis to recognize Israel. They will string him along. It remains to be seen whether they will accept Netanyahu’s “less than a state” for Palestine. That proposition is essentially the continuation of the status quo: one state with unequal rights. It is what many call “apartheid.”
I could of course be wrong again. But this is the gloomy picture I am seeing on the day after an election gone wrong.
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The horse race Harris will win
Yesterday’s final Atlanta rally for Kamala Harris was as expected: enthusiastic, loud, and crowded. We couldn’t get to the section designated for voter protection workers. But we had a decent spot that we lost when Ms S fainted. If you are out in the sun for a couple of hours, drink water!
The impression she makes
I don’t know who the celebrities were who preceded the Vice President. Not my world. But Senators Ossoff and Warnock both spoke well. They know how to slice and dice thoughts into little bits that allow time for absorption and applause. And they both have good reason to hope that Georgia will go blue, as it did for them.
Harris is different. She adopts a more conversational tone. No shouting long vowels into the microphone. Her sentence structure is more elaborate. She leaves less time for the crowd to react. Harris is amiable and approachable more than authoritative. She wants your vote and lets you know it.
The horse race is still close
The press is emphasizing the closeness of the race. “Battle to the Wire in Swing States” headlines the New York Times. The Economist polling averages show a narrowing race.
But Harris has clearly improved on Biden’s odds. The Economist still shows her in the lead in the popular vote, though not in the Electoral College. Late deciders are mostly going to Harris. Women, who favor Harris by double digits, are voting early in higher numbers than men. The Democrats have a much more extensive get out the vote campaign than the Republicans. A reputed Iowa pollster shows Harris in the lead there. No one had thought it would go blue.
That’s encouraging, but I am appalled that it is still this close. Trump, as the New York Times made clear in 110 words today, is unqualified. He will be a disaster in a second term. Harris will certainly not be a disaster. She is steady, sensible, and serious. I like that.
Out on a limb
I am going to out on a limb here. Harris will certainly win the popular vote. California and New York, where Trump is anathema with many voters, guarantee that. In the Electoral College, I think Harris has a chance to win most of the known “swing” or “battleground” states. In the Times/Siena polling, she is already leading (within the margin of error) in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied while in Arizona Trump leads.
But all the polling depends on estimate of who will actually vote. That doesn’t take into account the enthusiasm factor that gets people to the polls. Will more Americans in the swing states bother voting for a candidate who behaves like Trump? Will religious people who say they share Trump’s values vote for rapist Jeffrey Epstein’s BFF?
It’s all about turnout now
The problem is that Trump voters won’t hear any bad news about him. That includes the tapes describing their hero’s sexual exploits, which include underage girls and his best friends’ wives. Fox News isn’t going to cover that. The New York Times hasn’t yet either. The video above isn’t running on network TV. I’m not even sure it would be permitted.
Trump will of course contest any election he doesn’t win. That is a story for another day. But the best antidote to his “rigged” election claims is a landslide victory in the Electoral College. That would make the post-election quarreling easier for Harris.
Now it’s all about turnout. Persuading time is over. The campaign that gets its voters to the poll wins. I think Harris has the edge there. But we’ll have to wait and see.
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Georgia in contrast: red and blue
I spent yesterday afternoon monitoring opening and scanning of paper absentee, overseas, and military ballots in Hall County, Georgia. Hall is just north of Fulton (Atlanta), where I spent the last two weeks as a roving (outside) poll watcher. Hall is a deep red county, whereas Fulton is deep blue.
The process is good
I did not get to talk with many voters in Hall. The process I observed there started with slitting open the envelopes containing paper ballots, their removal from the “secrecy” sleeves, tearing off of the tabs that contain inventory numbers connected to particular voters, shuffling so that ballots cannot be traced to individuals, and scanning into the election system computer. Some ballots can’t be scanned and are separated out for later human scrutiny. Friday I’ll be on a panel adjudicating what to do those. Some ballots are not clearly marked, contain write-ins, or are printed on plain paper. Military units can send in the those on plain paper. The last are received from military units.
Throughout, the election workers keep careful track of the number of ballots and envelopes. Discrepancies happen. Sometimes two ballots arrive in the same envelope, or none. They don’t open the envelopes until the day they process them. Three workers oversee the scanning. They process all the ballots from opened envelopes the same day.
It would be hard to find fault with the process. Or with the attitude of the election workers. They seek to make cheating impossible.
So why is Hall County red?
Of course I don’t really know why Hall County is red. My few interactions with people there were entirely friendly. The folks at the Waffle House made me a fine steak and bacon sandwich. There were a few very large Trump signs and American flags. Some signs promised a Trump victory would lower taxes. I doubt anyone in Hall County is rich enough to gain from the tax cuts Trump will try to make. The main industry in Hall is chickens. Many of the workers are immigrants.
I asked one Harris-supporting resident about why people in Hall County support Trump. She thought it was crime. A few spectacular murders, especially the first at the University of Georgia since 1983, have generated fear. An undocumented immigrant is on trial for that one.
There is little a President can do about crime. Local authorities run most police forces, courts, and prisons. But Trump’s conflation of crime with immigration has gained traction. Never mind that immigrants don’t commit more crimes than native born Americans. Or that Hall County was red well before the February University of Georgia murder.
It’s about identity
My own conclusion is that people vote Trump more because of identity than policy. Hall County will gain little if Trump wins and deports immigrants. To the contrary, it will wreck the county’s chicken industry. The fear of immigrant crime is not based in the facts. It is based in the feeling that immigrants are not like us. They speak a different language, have different customs, and likely vote for Harris. That’s enough to make white men like a four-flushing liar. Go figure.
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Four more bad reasons to vote Trump
I somehow managed yesterday in citing ten reasons to vote for Trump to skip an obvious one: immigration. It merited mention, not least because it a very bad reason to be voting for Trump.
We need the labor
The United States needs more immigrants, not fewer. The tight labor market is driving up wages and productivity. That is welcome after many years that they lagged the increase in returns to capital. Incomes have been rising faster than prices since the epidemic. But there are limits. The US fertility rate (average number of children per woman over a lifetime) is down to 1.6. This is insufficient to sustain a stable population size. The resulting aging of the population increases the demands on Social Security and Medicare while decreasing their revenue streams.
Immigration can help to alleviate these problems. Immigrants to the US are younger on average and have more children than people born in the US. They help to pay the bills of those reaching retirement age, also relieving labor market pressure.
We need the entrepreneurs and executives
Immigrants are also disproportionately entrepreneurs. They do not on the whole take jobs from native-born Americans but create jobs for everyone:
…immigrants act more as “job creators” than “job takers” and play outsized roles in US high-growth entrepreneurship.
This is important, as US economic growth depends heavily on new, small companies. And small companies grow. Immigrants founded nearly 45% of the Fortune 500.
It is of course also true that immigrants play important roles in managing major corporations. The tech sector is rife with immigrant executives. Eighty per cent of privately held billion dollar companies have immigrants in a senior role. The American economy today depends on immigrant managers.
Getting rid of them isn’t possible
The Obama and Biden Administrations focused deportation on people who posed security risks. The Trump Administration did not have clear priorities. Biden has removed (often by expulsion rather than deportation) many more immigrants than Trump did.
That doesn’t mean Trump isn’t going to try to do what he said he would do. He has pledged to round up and expel millions. Trump’s effort would cost many billions and involve hiring ten thousand new immigration officials.
Even beginning that process will unleash chaos in the American economy, further tighten the labor market. It will also discourage immigration that we need for the purposes cited above. Trump’s election will slam down an economy that is landing softly.
There is a bipartisan solution already drafted that Trump won’t support
Republicans and Democrats have already agreed to a bipartisan immigration bill. Trump blocked its approval in the Congress. But the new Congress can revive the plan and pass it. Harris has pledged to sign it.
If elected, Trump will need to insist on something “better.” He is unlikely to get it if the Democrats control one of the Houses. Only Harris guarantees that immigration will be dealt with quickly on a bipartisan basis in the new Congress.
I could go on. World population growth is also slowing markedly. There soon won’t be as many people wanting to immigrate anywhere than there once were. Trump’s anti-immigrant efforts will encourage people to go elsewhere. That will not be good for a country that depends heavily on immigrant labor, entrepreneurs, and executives. We’d be well-advised to forget Trump’s grandiose plans and grab the bipartisan solution.
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Ten reasons to vote for Trump, nine refuted
Meidas+ has saved me the trouble. It lists 200 reasons not to vote for Donald Trump. I suppose it wouldn’t be all that hard to get to 300. It is hard for me to understand why any patriotic American–or even a non-patriotic one–would vote him.
Ten reasons to vote for Trump
So let’s consider the options:
- You are a diehard Republican who has never voted for a Democrat.
- Trump will be better for the economy than Harris.
- Trump will keep the US out of war.
- You want the Federal government cut back.
- You want abortion restricted.
- LGBTQ and trans people are not your thing. Or you don’t want your children learning about such things in school.
- You don’t like what the Israelis are doing in Gaza and Lebanon.
- The US should stop supporting Ukraine and start getting friendly with Putin.
- The US should stand up to China.
- You don’t want a Black, Asian woman as President.
Even diehards are voting for Harris
Harris can’t please diehard Republicans on the policy issues, but they are voting for her anyway. Liz Cheney and her father are not alone. Many Republicans see that Trump is not planning to sustain American democracy but to dismantle it. His former White House chief of staff and his Chair of the Joint Chiefs have both labeled him an autocrat. Actually, they said “fascist.” You don’t have to be a never Trumper to vote against someone who does not accept election results unless he wins.
Pulling the Democratic lever is not all that hard. I pull Republican levers whenever I am unhappy with the Democratic candidate. You can do the right thing too.
It’s the economy, stupid
It is, and America’s economy is bigger and better than ever. The Economist calls it “the envy of the world.” Growth has recovered faster from the epidemic downturn than other developed economies. Manufacturing is up sharply. The Biden Administration has presided over the creation of a record number of jobs. The stock market has continued its rise.
The spoiler is inflation, which peaked in the first two years of the Biden Administration. Since then, it has been declining. It is now approaching the Fed’s 2% goal. No one is happy paying more for food and housing, but wages have more than kept up with inflation. Most people, on average, are not worse off.
Trump’s proposed tariffs will resuscitate inflation and tank growth. They do not need Congressional approval. Affected industries will challenge them in court, but in the meanwhile they will be collected. American consumers will pay for them. Other countries will retaliate. The tariffs spell disaster for the American and world economies.
War no more?
The Trump campaign claims to have suffered no terrorist attacks and kept the US out of war 2016/20. But that isn’t true. Trump ordered strikes in Syria and Iraq, killed Iran’s Qassem Suleimani, and presided during several terrorist attacks inside the US. He also rightly provided lethal assistance to Ukraine that the Obama Administration had denied.
Trump negotiated the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan but left too few soldiers to cover the evacuation of Afghans. He promised total withdrawal of US troops from Syria, but then he left some there.
Bloated government?
The Federal government grew more under Biden (6%) than under Trump (3.7%). But Trump claims now that he can fire many thousands of Federal employees and increase efficiency. He certainly didn’t prove that in 2016/20. The notion that Elon Musk will help him do it is laughable. Musk eviscerated Twitter and is still losing lots of money. Recovering rocket bodies and improving efficiency are not the same thing.
Trump’s intention is to fire civil servants and replace them with servile Trumpkins who do his will, despite the law. He has made no secret of this. Do you really want decades of experience to be replaced with loyalty to a 79-year-old fascist?
Abortion is the Republicans’ Achilles heel
I am not pro-abortion. I don’t know anyone who is. Nor do you need be if you vote for Harris. But banning abortion, as many Republican states have done, gives government responsibility for a decision that belongs with individual women.
Trump is right that the Supreme Court has sent the issue back to the states. There the Democrats are repeatedly winning the argument whenever it is posed in a referendum. Any Republican who wants to see her/his party in power should be wondering whether the issue is politically toxic.
Dislike of LGBTQ and trans people
You don’t want your kids to learn about these things? Guess what: you won’t be capable of stopping them. There is nothing new under the sun. The Ancient Greeks knew all about non-heterosexual preferences. Sure, you might “protect” your children for a few years. But sooner or later they will know what you know, and maybe more.
Anyway, decisions on what schools teach are mostly made at the local level. Keep it there. Why vote for a candidate who claims kids are getting operated on at school without parental consent? Is that the untruth you want your children learning?
Gaza and Lebanon: blank check for Netanyahu
I don’t like what the Israeli government is doing in Gaza and Lebanon either. This is something on which American Jews, American Arabs, Israeli Jews, Lebanese, and Palestinians all agree. At least two-thirds of all these groups want a ceasefire and exchange of hostages/prisoners in Gaza. That would bring with it a ceasefire on the Israel/Lebanon border.
Things will get much worse in the Middle East if Trump is elected. He gave the Israelis everything they asked for when he was President. He’ll do it again if re-elected. I’m not sure what Harris will do, but it won’t be a blank check.
Ukraine won’t be the end of it
Trump has made it clear he will give Putin whatever he wants in Ukraine. That, he thinks, will end the war. If that is what you want, please do vote Republican.
But it won’t end the war. Putin will go after whatever part of Ukraine he doesn’t get, and then Moldova. Poland and the Baltic states will be at risk. He won’t stop until he is stopped. Trump won’t do it. Harris will.
Xi cleaned Trump’s clock
The same is true for China. Trump doesn’t want to defend American allies in Asia. That’s why he has suggested Japan and South Korea get their own nuclear weapons. Why not Taiwan and Philippines as well? Do you really think the world would be better off with another four nuclear powers? America would be safer?
As for trade, Trump negotiated an agreement with China. Beijing did not implement it. The result has been massive agricultural subsidies to American farmers, to compensate them for lost markets due to Chinese retaliation. The Trump tariffs will bring more retaliation and more subsidies to injured industries.
You don’t want a Black, Asian, woman as President
I’m not going to quarrel with this one. If you don’t want a smart, well-educated Black and Asian woman as President, vote for the crude grifter and felon. You are the company you keep.
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