Tag: Democracy and Rule of Law
A Balkans agenda for the lame duck
We are entering the final stretch before the US election. That means a lame duck period for lower priority parts of the world like the Balkans until January 20. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump is likely to say anything about the region before November 5. Even after Inauguration Day it will be some time before the new administration focuses on the Balkans.
We can guess their views
Harris’ views on the Balkans are unknown. But she has spent a career prosecuting criminals and defending equal rights. That likely tells you something about her attitude toward corruption and ethnonationalism. Trump is a corrupt white supremacist who tried to partition Kosovo while in the White House. If elected, he will no doubt empower Ric Grenell or his doppelganger to try again in Kosovo and Bosnia. Serbia has leverage on Trump. Jared Kushner has been looking for investment opportunities there.
What should the people at the State Department and in the White House do in this lame duck period? They should seek to correct the mistakes of the last three years, which have produced mainly diplomatic failure in the Balkans. The Biden Administration mistakenly focused on creating a statutory Association of Serb Majority Municipalities in Kosovo. In Bosnia, it rightly sought to disempower ethnonationalist politicians, but it succeeded mainly with Bosniaks. Those priorities condemned Biden’s Balkan policies to strategic defeat. They also alienated Kosovars and Bosniaks, America’s best friends in the region.
Here are a few ideas to correct course. Assuming that Harris will be elected, as I fondly hope, these thoughts aim to reduce the sway of ethnic nationalism. They would also increase the functionality of governance in still-fragile Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Some ideas
- Consult with Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti on a joint plan to establish beyond doubt his country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This should include an end to Belgrade intimidation of Serbs who join Kosovo security institutions and wider international recognition.
- Adopt as the official US stance conditional support for a nongovernmental Association of Serb Majority Municipalities. The municipalities themselves should form this Association consistent with the Kosovo constitution. The conditions should include Belgrade fulfillment of its obligations under the agreement in which Pristina agreed to the Association.
- Tell Belgrade publicly that it needs to produce accountability for the Serbian government malfeasance of last year. That includes the kidnapping of Kosovo police, rioting against KFOR, and the Banjska terrorist plot.
- Stop the bad-mouthing of Serbian environmentalists who oppose the Rio Tinto lithium plant. Start publicly criticizing corruption and growing autocracy in Belgrade.
- End the Bosnia High Representative’s intervention to reverse the European Court of Human Rights ruling in the Kovacevic case. The ECHR ruling promises a big step in reducing ethnic nationalist control of state institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Develop criminal charges in the US against the leading Serb and Croat advocates (Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic) of ethnonational division in Bosnia.
There are some tall orders in this list. But the failure of three years of misguided US and EU diplomatic efforts suggests a dramatic turn is needed.
The resistance will be strong
Serbia’s President Vucic is committed to the “Serbian world” goal of governing Serbs in neighboring countries. He has succeeded in Montenegro. The government in Podgorica is under Serbia’s thumb. In Bosnia and Kosovo, only de facto partition can deliver success to Serbia. Belgrade will resist all the above moves, as will their proxies in the neighboring countries.
Belgrade is at risk of falling irreversibly under the influence of Russia and China. The US needs to counter that influence with sticks as well as carrots. The carrots only appeasement approach has failed. Here is the result:
The Americans will be far more effective at all of this if the EU and UK will act in tandem. The UK will likely follow a strong US lead. The EU may not follow right away, That makes another task for the lame duck interval: getting Brussels on board.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Trump is out of gas but keeps farting
Donald Trump’s performance last Tuesday night in the debate with Kamala Harris was pitiful. He has been griping ever since about the moderators, but most of the country knows the truth. Trump was unable to hold his own while Harris established her credentials as a worthy contestant for the presidency. Whether you agree with her policy proposals or not, she looked, acted, and spoke like a president. He did not.
It isn’t over yet
But there are still more than seven weeks to the election. Battered, Trump will now fight back harder and dirtier than ever. The Republican Party will do everything it can in the battleground states to limit voting by minorities, citizens born in other countries, and younger people. It will try to hinder vote counting in big cities and cast doubt on the outcome in any state that produces only a narrow margin for Harris.
The Democrats are prepared for this onslaught and will counter the Republicans in court, both before and after the election. Both parties seem to be hard at work registering new voters. But just the confusion of claims and counterclaims will create problems, including a media frenzy.
Some of this could work against Trump. Even the Republican governor has said the claims about illegal immigrants eating pet cats and dogs in an Ohio town are untrue:
But Trump and Vance are not saying things like this because they think them true. Vance has admitted he is prepared to “create” stories he thinks represent the interests of his constituents:
What Vance and Trump are trying to do is attract attention and subtract from Harris’ momentum, using racist tropes. That is having some success. Half of America is now thinking about immigration rather than Trump’s felony convictions or Harris’ economic proposals.
Harris is proving wise
Harris did challenge the pets story, but she does not challenge all of Trump’s falsehoods or defend the Biden Administration at every opportunity. According to CNN, he told 33 lies (“false claims”) during the less than 45 minutes he spoke during the debate. It would have been impossible to take them all on. If she had, it would have looked as if he set the agenda, not her.
I regretted that she did not counter his assertion that immigrants are committing a lot of crimes, though she no doubt knows they commit fewer per capita than people born in the US. I also regret that she failed to respond to the first question in the debate: are Americans better off than four years ago? She should have. Unemployment, growth, energy exports and many other parameters are dramatically improved since January 2021.
Harris’ virtues
But Harris is persistent and tireless in claiming to serve the American people. That is what some of us want to hear. We don’t hear it from Trump. He disowns responsibility for any failures, even claiming he did nothing to encourage the January 6 attack on The Capitol that he spent weeks inciting. Trump claims to be the best president ever and that Biden is the worst. He claims he can fix everything and Biden could fix nothing. Anyone even vaguely familiar with the Biden legislative accomplishments compared to Trump’s knows that isn’t true. Harris certainly does.
I attended a Harris fundraiser Saturday here in DC. She seemed to me, at a distance of 150 feet or so, to be genuine and sincere.
She is animated, vigorous, and coherent. I can’t say that about her opponent. Trump played golf a lot while president. He is still doing it during the campaign. He offers little more than tariffs on everything, replacing the Federal civil service with his cronies, and concessions to Putin and other dictators. Trump is out of gas but still farting.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
How to champion a great cause
Photo via Pexels
Nicole Rubin of https://insureabilities.com/writes:
In an era where voices can be amplified through various platforms, taking meaningful action in your community for the causes you believe in has never been more accessible. Whether you’re looking to influence policy, engage in direct action, or leverage digital tools, your involvement can create significant change. This guide, courtesy of Peacefare, will walk you through several impactful strategies to champion your cause effectively.
Participate in Marches or Public Demonstrations
One of the most visible and compelling ways to support a cause is by participating in marches or public demonstrations. These gatherings not only show solidarity for a cause but also attract media attention, helping to raise awareness on a larger scale. By organizing or joining these events, you can connect with like-minded individuals, learn more about the issues at hand, and amplify the message you care about. Remember, there’s strength in numbers, and your presence can contribute to that power.
Start a Petition to Demand Action from Policymakers
Starting a petition is a strategic way to demand action from policymakers. This approach allows you to clearly articulate your demands and gather support from the community. Thanks to digital tools, creating and signing petitions have become more streamlined. Using e-signatures, you can efficiently collect signatures and manage your campaign. Once your petition has gained sufficient traction, you can present it to local representatives or use it to influence public opinion, thereby pushing for the changes you wish to see.
Attend Local Government Meetings
Local government meetings are where crucial decisions about your community are made. Attending these meetings provides a platform to voice your concerns and influence local policies directly. Speaking out on issues that matter to you can also enlighten others in your community who might be unaware of the cause. Engaging with local officials and making informed, passionate appeals can lead to practical changes at the municipal or county level.
Organize a Service Project
Organizing a service project is a practical and engaging way to support your cause. Whether it involves a clean-up day, a fundraising event, or a community workshop, such projects address immediate needs while fostering community spirit and cooperation. When planning a project, it’s important to identify and focus on the most pressing needs related to your cause. Engaging community members to participate promotes a sense of ownership and direct involvement, which can lead to sustained support and enthusiasm for future initiatives.
Use Social Media to Raise Awareness
Social media serves as a formidable tool for raising awareness and mobilizing support for your cause. By crafting compelling content and actively engaging with your audience, you can propagate your message across vast networks. Platforms like Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook are ideal for sharing stories, updates, and calls to action. Effective social media campaigns not only attract supporters and sway public opinion but also have the potential to capture the attention of key decision-makers, significantly amplifying the impact of your advocacy efforts.
Taking action in your community requires commitment and creativity. By employing these strategies, you can champion the causes you care about and foster change. Whether it’s through direct action, digital advocacy, or professional commitment like nursing, your efforts play a crucial role in shaping a better future for your community. Engage passionately, act strategically, and watch as your community transforms through the power of your advocacy.
Peacefare is here to spread and encourage peace. If you have any questions, feel free to post a reply!
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Read this to not be surprised
A few challenges today to the accepted wisdom:
- Iran and its allies will not necessarily attack Israel with missiles and drones.
- Whatever they do may not come soon.
- The prisoner exchange with Russia was a good thing, but it will have bad consequences.
- The American election outcome isn’t as uncertain as the current polling suggests.
The impending Iranian attack may not be what you think
I have no inside information, but I won’t be surprised if Iran chooses something other than an air raid to attack Israel. While such a raid could do a lot of damage if it gets past Israeli defenses, it would not be a mirror image of the Israeli attack that killed Ismail Haniyeh. It would also likely cause a lot of civilian casualties, including among the 18% of Israel’s population that is Muslim.
The Iranians may instead try to kill a Israeli high-ranking target. Assassinating a negotiator or general in Jerusalem would create real fear among Israelis. But it would not give much reason for the US to join in a strike against Iran, which is what Prime Minister Netanyahu wants.
In the meanwhile, the Iranians are enjoying the massive and expensive deployment of American assets as well as the mobilization strain on the Israelis. Without striking, Tehran is forcing its enemies to run up their bills and exhaust their soldiers and sailors. The longer Iran waits, the higher the costs.
Exchanging prisoners creates a moral hazard
The exchange of prisoners last week between Russia and various Western states has to be counted a good thing. It freed a lot of innocent people.
But it also freed some dreadful criminals, including a Russian assassin. That will have the unfortunate effect of encouraging President Putin to take more hostages that he can exchange for still more Russian miscreants. I’ve been to Moscow three times (1974, 1994, and 2014), so twice when it was the capital of the Soviet Union. I would not go again now. While the risk to any individual American might be small, Putin’s Russia is more likely to arbitrarily arrest Americans than the Soviets.
Russia isn’t the only country I would hesitate to visit these days. China also poses much greater risks than in the past. Iran specializes in incarcerating mainly Iranian Americans. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Yemen, Afghanistan, Egypt, and Mozambique also hold Americans for less than good reasons. Something like 40 Americans are still unjustly held abroad, despite significant successes.
It goes without saying that Americans traveling abroad should take care to follow the local laws. But even if you do, there is an increasing likelihood of unjust detention. I wouldn’t visit Russia, China, or Iran today without some guarantees, which would not be easy to get. I even hesitate to go to Serbia, which I visited more than a few times during the Milosevic regime. But President Vucic is a student of President Putin. And Vucic knows who I am and what I write.
Harris is winning
The past two weeks have exhibited a remarkable outpouring of pro-Harris sentiment in the American electorate. She is beating Trump in national polls, and has drawn even in battleground states. The horse race isn’t over until November, but if she can keep rising in the polls, Trump is done.
I expect Harris to own this month. She will pick a good vice presidential candidate, likely today. All six candidates are far more experienced and more moderate than J.D. Vance, Trump’s big mistake. The Democratic Convention August 19-22 in Chicago will display a unified and mobilized party determined to win, even if the risk of unruly pro-Palestinian demonstrations is real.
A lot depends on whether the economy is landing hard or soft from the COVID-19 recovery. But I am still hoping the Fed will get it somewhere near right, despite yesterday’s big stock market retreat.
The outcome of an American election is happily unpredictable. But Harris can win. I’ll do my best to try to make that come true. I’m inclined to relocate to Atlanta, where I have a house down the street from my older son’s family, for much of October. I’ll volunteer to get the vote out and ensure proper election administration. I vote in DC, not Georgia, but more than 90% of DC will vote for Harris. Georgia is one of the battlegrounds. That’s where I would like to be.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Tunisia gets one more chance
I know Tunisia is not in the headlines, but this statement by presidential candidates struck me. They are trying to preserve what little is left of democratic norms created during the “Arab spring,” which originated in Tunisia. I wish them well, but current President Saied is not making it easy.
Our country will be undergoing an upcoming election in Tunisia during the month of October of this year, and violations have multiplied, affecting most serious candidates who are entitled to compete in the elections. These candidates are faced with restrictions with the aim of excluding them in order to clear the way for a specific candidate, which is affecting the very credibility of the process.
In light of this situation, which undermines the simplest elements of fair competition, the undersigned figures affirm that, while they may compete in the electoral process, they share common national and democratic values, as well as respect for the people as the ultimate decision-makers in choosing their representatives, and commitment to ensuring the integrity of these elections as a fundamental condition for their success. Furthermore, we emphasize the following points:
1: We denounce the arbitrary and security harassment and restrictions that have targeted many of those involved in the electoral campaigns while collecting voluntary endorsements, to the extent of arresting many election coordinators and snatching the endorsements they held. We hold the Minister of the Interior and the Secretary of State for Security responsible for this lack of neutrality and we demand the release of the detainees and the return of the endorsements that were confiscated.
2: We stress that depriving candidates running for elections of their right to obtain a criminal record card, which is essential to run for office, is a violation of a constitutional right. This practice allows for the Ministry of Interior to interfere in the electoral process and exploit the state’s agencies in an illegal manner which contradicts the most basic requirements of political and civil rights. We further stress that it could have been possible for the electoral commission to request this card directly from the Ministry of Interior to avoid such deviation and abuses.
3: We call for the immediate issuance of a Card No. 3 to all candidates and remind that deprivation of civil and political rights can only occur through a final and supplementary judicial ruling, which does not apply to the candidates.
4: We hold the electoral commission, which announced full jurisdiction over this process, responsible for complicating the procedures and conditions, contrary to the applicable texts and electoral law, in addition to the serious violations recorded and the suspicious silence that accompanied them in the past days despite the cries of alarm and denunciation raised by many candidates. It considers that this unjustified silence from the commission amounts to collusion with a hidden agenda aimed at turning the electoral race into a farce and a crime against the Tunisian people.
5: We call on the electoral commission to extend the period for collecting endorsements, in respect of the electoral calendar, considering that the provision of endorsements to candidates did not effectively begin until July 10. The commission must also ensure the freedom of citizens to endorse any candidate while respecting their personal data, away from intimidation and coercion.
6: All Tunisian media outlets are urged to fulfill their role in informing and discussing electoral programs and organizing debates among candidates in a spirit of objectivity, fairness, and equal opportunities. Public media, funded by taxpayers’ money, is required to move away from being a presidential media organ by opening platforms both centrally and regionally in an atmosphere of freedom, independence, and equality, while respecting professional ethics and the public’s right to access reliable information pertaining to all candidates.
7: The administrative court is called upon to fulfill its historical role in light of the deliberate absence of the constitutional court, in order to avoid any unilateral interpretations of the constitution and the applicable laws that may align with the desires of some to exclude most serious candidates in favor of a specific candidate.
8: We call on the Tunisian judiciary to uphold justice and fairness and to operate with independence without any political pressure, and to allow individuals imprisoned in political cases their constitutional right to run for elections. We emphasize that the Tunisian people alone have the authority to exclude any candidate from the race, and this should be done through the ballot boxes.
9: We call for the neutralization of the administration and the prohibition of using state institutions in general, and particularly the posts of mayors, local officials, and governors, to gather endorsements for a specific candidate and to be utilized in any electoral campaign.
10: We call on the military and security institutions to fulfill their national duties and maintain neutrality in all matters surrounding the electoral process, in order to ensure the protection of ballot boxes from any possible manipulation, that is provided that the objective conditions for conducting fair multiparty elections are met, in which everyone can compete freely and without restrictions.
Finally, we urge the Tunisian people to exercise their citizenship and constitutional rights in endorsing and voting for any candidate they deem worthy, in freedom to choose the next president of the country, thus blocking attempts to drain the electoral scene and impose guardianship and exclusion to pave the way for a single candidate. We insist that democratic elections are the only means capable of extricating the country from its political crisis and resolving conflicts based on programs and ideas, rather than on defamation and exclusion.
We further stress that if there is a lack of minimum respect for the basic conditions for fair competition, and if there is a tendency to use official institutions to directly and blatantly influence the nomination process or future stages of the electoral process, while ensuring equality in dealing with all competitors, then we fear that the elections may turn into a mere formal play lacking any credibility, which we refuse to be a part of. This compels us to keep all civic options open to ensure the protection of the electoral process from any deviations it might encounter.
Long live Tunisia, free and proud.
Signatures:
Safi Said
Dhakir Lahidheb
Abdellatif Mekki
Imed Daimi
Ghazi Chaouachi
Kamel Akrout
Lotfi Mraihi
Mourad Massoudi
Nizar Chaari
Neji Jelloul
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Trump is in trouble for now
Less than a week after President Biden withdrew from the race, Donald Trump is in trouble. Vice President Harris has momentum. His best move lately was a round with pro golfer Bryson DeChambeau. I doubt that grabs a lot of middle class voters. She is dancing all over the internet and mobilizing the Democratic base in battleground states. The latest poll shows she has erased Trump’s margin over Biden.
Trump’s problems
Trump’s campaign was entirely geared towards running against an aging Joe Biden. His incessant complaints about the Biden family and the President’s cognitive abilities had gotten some traction. Biden was still a point or two from Trump in national polling, but he was lagging in most of the battlegrounds.
Trump’s attacks against Harris are not landing outside his base. Calling her an extremist and a liar just isn’t working well with either the mainstream media or independents. What are her extremist views? What is she lying about? The country seems tired of Trump, who is now the brunt of remarks about age. At 78, he is almost 20 years older than Harris and only three younger than Biden. He commits many verbal faux pas and delivers lengthy, rambling, incoherent speeches.
He also makes his assault on democracy explicit:
Trump chose as a running mate a relative unknown first-term senator, JD Vance, who has bizarre views on many topics. Just for starters, he wants people with children to get more votes. Trump is already showing regrets for that pick.
Harris’ pluses
Harris has come out of the gate remarkably fast. Within days, she gained the votes needed for nomination at the Democratic convention in Chicago next month. Her candidacy has raised a mountain of money from both small and big donors. “We’re not going back” is her pitch, a clever reference to Trump’s chaotic term in the presidency. She is aggressively campaigning and also considering her own VP pick. It would be hard for her to go wrong. The Democratic lineup has half a dozen highly qualified officials from swing states.
Biden was trailing but still far from defeat. Harris appears to have inherited his support. She is also gaining with independents and those who might have voted for third party candidates. Her support among women and younger voters is better than Biden’s.
Harris in her remarks after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu proved adept. Without shifting away from Biden’s support for Israel’s right to defend itself, she forcefully emphasized her sympathy with ordinary Palestinians and the need to end the Gaza war. “I will not be silenced,” she vowed. Netanyahu will do everything he can to help Trump. But Harris will have taken an important step in healing the rift within her own party and in regaining Arab and Muslim American votes in Michigan and other battlegrounds.
Towards the goal
There are still more than 100 days to the election November 5. But for now Harris has the ball and is moving it fast to the goal line. Expect Trump to react with all the lies and dirty tricks he can muster. He will continue to call her a liar and extremist. He’ll have doubts about her eligibility to run, as she is the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India. His campaign will resurrect controversial positions she took in the past. Trump is trying to get out of the debate with her. Who knows what else he’ll pull. But if she can hold on to the ball, a goal is inevitable.
RSS - Posts
