Tag: Democracy and Rule of Law
The sun is not setting on the US
Pantelis Ionomou asked “has the sunset of the West begun?” My own answer to this question is “no.” But that requires some explication.
The problem is real
There is no doubt but that electoral autocracies are rising while liberal democracies are declining:
The question is whether this trend will continue, where, and for how long.
2024 will see an unusual number of elections, including in big countries. Two merit particular attention: the US presidential and Congressional contests and India’s parliamentary election. The Economist rates both as “flawed democracies,” though India’s is more flawed than America’s.
Prime Minister Modi is favored to win another parliamentary majority, perhaps with a reduced number of seats. The big question is whether he will use a new mandate to further restrict Indian democracy. I wouldn’t bet against that. Modi has turned many of India’s Hindus against its massive Muslim population, the largest Muslim minority in any country on earth.
The US is particularly important
In the US, polling suggests that former President Donald Trump has a good chance of returning to the White House. As in India, the odds are he would use a second term to do additional damage to American democracy. Trump has pledged to use the Justice Department against political opponents and fire large numbers of experienced and law-abiding civil servants. He has even claimed in court absolute immunity for actions taken as president, including assassination of a political opponent. He has also avowed the intention to use dictatorial powers on “day 1” to close the border and drill, presumably for oil and gas:
The question is whether Trump will win in November against Joe Biden.
It will be tight
I doubt it. He will certainly not win the popular vote, which he lost by 7 million in 2020. It is hard to imagine any New Yorker or Californian who voted for Biden last time around who will turn out to vote for Trump this time. But one of America’s democratic flaws is its presidential election procedures. Its 18th-century constitution gives the presidency to someone who wins a majority of votes in the Electoral College, regardless of the popular vote. There it is state “electors” who determine the outcome.
Each state gets a number of electors equivalent to its number of members in Congress (plus three for the District of Columbia, which is not a state). This indirect system favors smaller states since all states (but not the District) have two members of the upper house, regardless of population. It enables a candidate with strong support in less populous states to win.
Trump has that going for him. Without it, the Republicans would be permanently out of power, or forced to change their politics. They have lost the popular vote in all but one election (2004) since 1992.
The 2024 election will come down to a contest in only a handful of states. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are particularly competitive. Polling shows Biden trailing Trump in the first two, as well as in the Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona “battlegrounds.” If this polling pans out, Biden is toast.
But don’t count Biden out
So why do I think the US will not continue in that direction? Polling is notoriously unreliable this far out from an election. Many of the current polls are showing improbable shifts of minorities away from Biden, whose record on their issues is far better than Trump’s. They may be signaling unhappinesss with being taken for granted, but in the polling booth I don’t know many traditional Democrats who will make the mistake of voting against their own interests.
Muslim Americans are particularly important in Michigan. All the Arabs I know (none of whom are in Michigan I should note) are deeply disappointed in Biden’s unqualified support for Israel’s war on Gaza. Ditto my Bosnian Muslim friends with his policies both in Gaza and in the Balkans. But they will in November face a choice between Biden, who has at least tried to moderate Israel’s approach and steer it towards saving Palestinian lives and establishing a Palestinian state, and a profoundly Islamophobic, race-baiting Trump. Last time around, Trump completely abandoned Palestinian concerns, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, and gave Prime Minister Netanyahu far more unqualified support than Biden has done.
The polling is also showing a surprising shift of Black voters to Trump, but women are heading in the other direction. This is despite record low unemployment among Blacks and a narrowing of the gap with whites. Biden has appointed an unusual number of Black judges and other officials, as well as an unprecedented number of women. Young people would like a younger candidate than Biden. But Trump is only a few years younger. He is also more addled than Biden:
Trump’s white supremacist and anti-abortion advocacy may not loom large today. But any decent electoral campaign on Biden’s part will remind the electorate of both.
Trump will be a crook and Biden’s economy will look good
I hardly need even mention the many criminal indictments and civil cases against Trump, some of which will result in ignominous outcomes for him before November. He will likely be a convicted felon by then. He will also have lost control of many of his businesses. That won’t deprive him of his base, which is oblivious to his wrongdoing and convinced he is being persecuted, but it will repulse some independents and encourage at least as much turnout among Democrats as among Trumpistas.
The Republicans are pursuing Biden’s son Hunter, but they haven’t really pinned anything unknown on him. Nor have they connected their allegations to the President.
The continuing strength of the American economy, which is going uncredited to Biden among much of the citizenry, has been a problem for him. It has caused high inflation, increased interest rates and home prices, and pushed up gasoline prices. But many of these important consumer issues will be in the rear-view mirror by November. Another ten months should bring inflation close to the Fed’s 2 per cent target, enabling reduction of interest rates. Gasoline prices are not likely to rise much as the economy softens a bit. US energy production is higher than ever and gasoline prices are falling. Interest rates appear to have peaked and consumer confidence last month jumped.
Bottom line
Absent any big surprises between now and November, Biden is far more likely to be gaining than losing against Trump in the key states. I can’t be sure it will suffice. But I am more hopeful than discouraged. The sun is not setting on the West, at least not in the US.
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Stevenson’s army, December 19
– US sets up a Red Sea task force
–Germany deploys troops abroad
– Election interference by several countries
– Reuters forecasts Trump foreign policy
– GOP voters support law-breaking
– Gaza hurts Biden with voters
– 118th Congress hasn’t done much
WaPo has new interactive showing DC area flood risks
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Pie in the sky is no “day after” solution
Tom Warrick, a respected former colleague at the State Department, has offered a thoughtful formula for the “day after” in Gaza. But it is also an impossible formula far from the reality of what is likely to happen.
Before turning to Tom’s specific points, we need to imagine what kind of international presence will be required in Gaza after this war to secure the peace, assuming Israel succeeds in defeating Hamas. Experience suggests this will be a “heavy peace enforcement” mission for a population around 2.5 million. That would require upwards of 30,000 international troops and 4000 police, the latter Arabic-speaking. In addition it will need 7500 Gazan military and 5500 Gazan police. I know nowhere you could get even a fraction of that personnel. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank has fewer than 10,000 police.
Corruption
First priority, Tom says, is to end Hamas culture of economic corruption. But what he refers to as “culture” is in fact Hamas’ authoritarian rule in Gaza. Like other authoritarians, Hamas used the resources of the state to maintain monopolistic control. Any new leadership taking over will want to preserve that system, not destroy it. The root-and-branch reforms Tom advocates would be at best the outcome of a decade-long international presence.
Listening
Most of us who have been involved in international interventions think we should have listened more to “ordinary” people. But it is not easy to do. Assessing what the locals really want is inherently difficult in a post-war environment, when people will often tell you only what they think you want to hear. And what they want most–food, shelter, jobs, and a “normal” life are often top of the list–may be difficult to provide. Most certainly won’t be talking about public integrity and civil service hiring.
Educational curriculum
No question. This needs changing as Gaza education inculcates not only hatred of Israel but of Jews, with whom Gazans are going to need to get along if peace is to last. But the non-Gazan “experts” Tom thinks can do this will find it impossible to reconcile his aim of “lasting coexistence” with the view of the world of the Gazans who have suffered through this and previous wars. The US tried to use “experts” to reform the history curriculum in Iraq. It failed. What the experts want will clash with Gazan experience.
A democratic constitution
I agree with Tom that “Israel needs to demonstrate that it is committed to a two-state solution.” But that doesn’t mean the Gazans are going to write the kind of democratic constitution he wants. Sure Gazans want their own state, but they have no reason to believe that peace or democracy will get them there. They need only look at the Palestinian Authority to conclude the opposite.
Economic rebuilding
The resources to rebuild the economy could well become available, mainly from the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are the prime candidates. We are talking a few tens of billions of dollars, which is chicken feed if the political will exists. But the Gulfies won’t ante up unless they can sell what they do as leading to the Palestinian state the Israelis are unlikely to permit, at least in the immediate post-war period.
Border security
Tom suggests “Israel will want to ensure for at least three decades, as unobtrusively as possible, that neither Iran not anyone else has the ability to smuggle into Gaza the means of waging war.” If this were possible, the Israelis would already have done it. They are no long able even to prevent the smuggling of small arms into the West Bank. There they control not only the borders but also occupy essentially the entire territory.
Bottom line
Hope is not a plan. Nor is despair, but it seems to me more justified at present than hope. Pie in the sky is no “day after” solution.
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Stevenson’s army, October 25
– US public support for political violence is rising. Here’s the survey.
– Confidence in the media is dropping.
– WSJ says arms are flooding into West Bank.
– Fred Kaplan says US democracy promotion helped Hamas.
– US intelligence concludes Israel not responsible for hospital attack.
– Mike Johnson is latest speaker nominee, notable for lead role in brief to SCOTUS supporting Trump election charges, also has opposed Ukraine aid.
– Johnson circulated a program showing completion of appropriations bills in winter 2024.
– On 61st anniversary of Cuban missile crisis Lawfare notes Congress had authorized force. [As I did in my chart showing authorizations of force since 1789]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 5
– Walter Pincus describes GOP maneuvering on defense appropriations.
– Quincy Institute says 80% of retired 4 star officers go into defense industry.
– RollCall details big changes House made to defense budget request.
– UNSC is sending Kenyan police — not military — to Haiti
– Fred Kaplan says Philippines stood up to China
– David Andelman analyzes recent foreign elections
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 5
– Latest Alabama redistricting map ruled unconstitutional.-
– Service Secretaries hit Tuberville holds
– DOD divided over US troop levels in Europe
– NIU prof notes how Goldwater Nichols law made CJCS a key diplomat
– Dan Drezner notes that foreigners are planning in case of a Trump reelection
– Democracy experts tells how foreigners improved on the US Constitution
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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