Tag: Democracy and Rule of Law
A smooth landing after so much turbulence?
Travel has made me late to post on the election of Mohammed Morsi as Egypt’s president, so it is unlikely I’ll say anything you haven’t heard before. But maybe it will be useful if I explain why some like me who advocated a vote for Ahmed Shafiq is happy to see the election of Morsi.
I suggested voting for Shafiq when it looked as if the election of Morsi might give the Muslim Brotherhood a monopoly on institutional power in Egypt, as it already controlled the parliament. Shortly thereafter, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) used a Supreme Constitutional Court decision to close the parliament and arrogate legislative power to itself. So Morsi’s election is breaking the army’s monopoly on power, rather than Shafiq breaking the Brotherhood’s monopoly on power. The point is the same: Egypt is a deeply divided society getting ready to write a constitution. The broadest possible representation in power is what the country needs.
It would be hard to resist the joy some Egyptians are expressing at the election of Morsi, who has gone out of his way to reach out to the broadest possible spectrum of Egyptian society. He has even resigned from the Brotherhood and praised the army, underlining his intention to be the president of all Egyptians. Some will gripe that he can leave the Brotherhood but the Brotherhood doesn’t leave him. Others will doubt his sincerity in promising to treat women and Christians equally. Still others will worry that his promise to uphold international agreements won’t apply to the peace treaty with Israel, on which the Brotherhood has in the past advocated a referendum. There are enormous uncertainties surrounding Morsi.
The greatest of these is what powers he will actually exercise. Even former president Hosni Mubarak kept a parliament, which is nice to have around when you need legislation on controversial matters of no import to the army. Who would want to decide on the level of food subsidies in Egypt today? Or pension payments? Or female genital mutilation? Not the army for sure. It should be content to keep control of its own budget and economic enterprises while blocking any moves towards accountability for crimes committed under the Mubarak regime. I don’t think it will be long before we see the army unhappy with its legislative responsibilities, but it will be difficult to get rid of them. There is a strong likelihood that new legislative elections will bring another strong showing by the Islamist parties (the Brotherhood controlled 48 per cent of the seats after the last elections and the Salafists another quarter or so).
Meanwhile Morsi, has to put together a government, uncertain of its powers but confident of his own democratic legitimacy. It is not even clear where and how he will be sworn in, though I trust they’ll figure that one out. The SCAF will be overseeing the cabinet-formation process, and perhaps even vetoing particular names. One of Morsi’s lieutenants is saying
It will be a coalition government without an FJP [Freedom and Justice Party, the Muslim Brotherhood’s political party] majority and led by an independent figure.
That sounds smart to me. An Egyptian administrative court today threw out the arrest and detention powers that the army gave itself just a few days ago. If Morsi is patient and diligent, he may well find power on many issues gravitating in his direction, with the army content to protect its more immediate interests.
If that happens, I’ll be wondering again where the counterbalancing forces can be found. But Egypt has already been through a lot of turbulence. Dare I hope that, like my flight from Vienna today, things smooth out for a good landing?
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This week’s peace picks
Lots of good events in DC this week, several of them big all-day events. I’ll be away part of the week in Vienna–that’s my excuse for not going to everything. Write-ups for peacefare.net are, as always, welcome.
1. Unleashing the Nuclear Watchdog: Strengthening and Reform of the IAEA, Stimson, noon June 25
Event Details
On June 13, 2012, The Centre for International Governance Innovation released its long-awaited report, “Unleashing the Nuclear Watchdog: Strengthening and Reform of the IAEA.”
The report will be presented at an event on June 25 in Washington, DC, co-hosted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute North America (SIPRI North America). CIGI Senior Fellow Trevor Findlay, author of the report, will present the report’s findings. He will be introduced by Dr. Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, executive director, SIPRI North America.
The release of “Unleashing the Nuclear Watchdog: Strengthening and Reform of the IAEA” marks the culmination of a two-year research project that examined all aspects of the Agency’s mandate and operations ― from major programs on safeguards, safety, security and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy to governance, management and finance. The report makes multiple recommendations, both strategic and programmatic, for strengthening and reform of the Agency. The project was a joint undertaking of CIGI’s global security program and the Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance (CCTC) at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs (NPSIA) at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada.
Professor Findlay holds a joint fellowship with the International Security Program and the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He also holds the William and Jeanie Barton Chair in International Affairs at NPSIA and is director of the CCTC.
When & Where
SIPRI North America, Stimson Center
1111 19th Street NW
Twelfth Floor
Washington, DC 20036
3. Iran and the West: Oil, Sanctions, and Future Scenarios, SAIS room 500 BOB, 9-12:45 June 26
Room 500
1717 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC
| 9:00 – 9:15 | Light Breakfast |
| 9:15 – 9:30 | Welcoming RemarksAmbassador Andras Simonyi (Managing Director, SAIS CTR) |
| 9:30 – 11:00 | PANEL I Energy and Politics: Myths and Reality of a Complex InteractionSpeakers:
Claudia Castiglioni (Calouste Gulbenkian Fellow, SAIS CTR) Sara Vakhoshouri (President of SVB Energy International and former Advisor to Director of the National Iranian Oil Company International) Guy Caruso (Senior adviser in the Energy and National Security Program at CSIS, former administrator of the Energy Information Administration) Moderator: Robert J. Lieber (Department of Government and School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University) |
| 11:00 – 11:15 | Coffee |
| 11:15 – 12:45 | PANEL II The Future of Iran-West Relations: A Transatlantic PerspectiveSpeakers:
Michael Makovsky (Foreign Policy Director at the Bipartisan Policy Center) Abbas Maleki (Robert E. Wilhelm Fellow at Center for International Studies, MIT) Moderator: Suzanne Maloney (Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings Institution) |
4. Crisis Yemen: Going Where? City Club, 555 13th St NW, 10-noon June 26
June 26, 2012
Crisis Yemen: Going Where?
Ambassador Barbara Bodine, Lecturer and Director, Scholars in the Nation’s Service Initiative, Princeton University; and former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen
Mr. Gregory Johnsen, Ph.D. Candidate, Princeton University; author, Waq al-waq blog and The Last Refuge: Yemen, al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia; and former Fulbright and American Institute for Yemeni Studies Fellow in Yemen
Dr. Charles Schmitz, Associate Professor of Geography, Towson University; President, American Institute for Yemeni Studies; and former Fulbright and American Institute for Yemen Studies Fellow in Yemen
Mr. Robert Sharp, Associate Professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, U.S. Department of Defense/National Defense University
Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations; former Fulbright Fellow in the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen; and official observer for four of Yemen’s presidential and parliamentary elections
5. Armed Drones and Targeted Killing: International Norms, Unintended Consequences, and the Challenge of Non-Traditional Conflict, German Marshall Fund, 12:15- 2 pm June 26
| Date / Time |
Tuesday, June 26 / 12:15pm – 2:00pm Register with host
|
|---|---|
| Location |
German Marshall Fund 1744 R Street NW, Washington DC, 20009
|
| Speakers | Mark R. Jacobson, Sarah Holewinski, Mark V. Vlasic |
| Description | A discussion of the dilemmas posed by the use of RPVs, or “drones to include the implications for alliances, international norms, and their use outside of traditional armed conflict. The panel will also address the unique capability this new technology presents as well as the potential for unintended consequences and “blowback.”Speakers include Sarah Holewinski, Executive Director of CIVIC (Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict) who is preparing a report on drones with the Colombia Law School Human Rights Clinic and Mark Vlasic from Georgetown University and Madison Law & Strategy Group PLLC who has served at the World Bank and the Pentagon and has authored a legal analysis of Targeted Killing in the Georgetown Journal of International Law. The event will be moderated by Dr. Mark Jacobson, Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund and former Deputy NATO Representative in Afghanistan. |
6. Third Annual Conference on Turkey: Regional and Domestic Challenges for an Ascendant Turkey, National Press Club, 9-5 June 27
The Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies
in collaboration with the Institute of Turkish Studies present:
“Regional and Domestic Challenges for an Ascendant Turkey”
June 27th, 2012
9:00am-5:00pm
National Press Club
529 14th Street, NW 13th Floor
Washington, DC 20045
Conference Schedule:
8:45am – 9:00am: Registration
9:00am – 9:15am: Welcome
Ambassador Wendy J. Chamberlin, Middle East Institute
Gönül Tol, MEI’s Center for Turkish Studies
Ross Wilson, Institute of Turkish Studies
9:15am – 10:00am: Opening Keynote
Senator John McCain
United States Senate
10:00am – 10:30am: Keynote
Ömer Çelik
Deputy Chairman of the Justice and Development Party
10:30am – 10:45am: Coffee Break
10:45am – 12:15pm
Panel 1: Turkey’s Domestic Calculus: The Kurds, the Constitution, and the Presidential System Debate
Yalçın Akdoğan, Member of Parliament, Justice and Development Party
Ruşen Çakır, Turkish Daily Vatan
Michael Gunter, Tennessee Technological University
Levent Köker, Atilim University
Moderator: Michael Werz, Center for American Progress
12:15pm – 1:00pm: Lunch*
1:00pm – 1:45pm: Keynote
Ibrahim Kalın
Chief Adviser to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1:45pm – 3:15pm
Panel 2: Turkey, the EU, and the U.S.: Evolving Partnerships Post-Arab Spring
Brice de Schietere, Delegation of the European Union to the U.S.
Ambassador W. Robert Pearson, IREX
Ambassador Ross Wilson, Atlantic Council
Yaşar Yakış, Center for Strategic Communication, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs
Moderator: Sharon Wiener, Koç University
3:15pm – 3:30pm: Coffee Break
3:30pm – 5:00pm
Panel 3: Turkey’s Leadership Role in an Uncertain Middle East
Amr Darrag, Freedom and Justice Party, Egypt
Joost Hiltermann, International Crisis Group
Yigal Schleifer, Freelance Journalist
Robin Wright, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Moderator: Abderrahim Foukara, al-Jazeera
*Complimentary lunch will be available on a first come first served basis
Follow @CSIS for live updates
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program will host its second annual conference on Maritime Security in the South China Sea June 27-28, 2012.
The conference is a timely policy level discussion of the complex and important issues around the South China Sea. The program will take place a week before Secretary of State Clinton departs for the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Post-Ministerial Conference (PMC) in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
Assistant Secretary of State for Asia and the Pacific Kurt Campbell will deliver the keynote speech on Wednesday, June 27 and Senator Jim Webb (D-VA), chairman of the Senate’s Asia Pacific subcommittee, will present a keynote address on Thursday, June 28.
In addition, CSIS is pleased to have recruited a world-class group of experts from Asia and the United States to initiate the dialogue around five key themes:
- Recent developments in the South China Sea
- South China Sea in ASEAN-U.S.-China relations
- Assessment of the South China Sea in a changing regional landscape
- Role of international law in resolving and managing territorial disputes
- Policy recommendations to boost security and cooperation in the South China Sea
Continuing disputes suggest there is a great need and interest to explore security in the South China Sea. We have invited approximately 20 experts to make presentations and will invite senior officials, executives, academics, and members of the media to participate in the dialogue. The full conference agenda is available here.
Please click here to RSVP by Monday, June 25, 2012. When you RSVP you MUST include the panels you wish to attend.You must log on to register. If you do not have an account with CSIS you will need to create one. If you have any difficulties, please contact imisadmin@csis.org.
8. Libya, One Year Later, CATO, noon June 27
Noon (Luncheon to Follow)
Featuring Diederik Vandewalle, Adjunct Associate Professor of Business Administration and Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College; Jonathan Hutson, Director of Communications, Enough Project to End Genocide and Crimes against Humanity; Benjamin H. Friedman, Research Fellow in Defense and Homeland Security Studies, Cato Institute; moderated by Malou Innocent, Foreign Policy Analyst, Cato Institute.
The Cato Institute
1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
If you can’t make it to the Cato Institute, watch this event live online at www.cato.org/live and join the conversation on Twitter with the hashtag #CatoEvents. Also follow @CatoEvents on Twitter to get future event updates, live streams, and videos from the Cato Institute.
Some political commentators have called the Obama administration’s intervention last year in the Libyan civil war an “undeniable success” and one of “the greatest triumphs and signature moments in Barack Obama’s presidency.” One year later, however, Libya remains in crisis. Reports suggest that operatives linked to al Qaeda are active in Libya. Militias are detaining thousands of former regime loyalists and engaging in widespread torture. Instability remains rampant and has spilled into neighboring states. Moreover, President Obama’s unilateral decision to intervene contravened congressional war powers.
What do these troubling developments mean for the future of the UN’s “responsibility to protect”? Did the death of Muammar Qaddafi vindicate the intervention? Will Qaddafi’s example make other so-called rogue states less willing to relinquish their nuclear programs? Were political commentators premature in declaring NATO’s intervention a success? Please join us as leading scholars examine this under-appreciated and almost forgotten topic.
Cato events, unless otherwise noted, are free of charge. To register for this event, please fill out the form below and click submit or email events@cato.org, fax (202) 371-0841, or call (202) 789-5229 by noon, Tuesday, June 26, 2012. Please arrive early. Seating is limited and not guaranteed. News media inquiries only (no registrations), please call (202) 789-5200.
9. Sanctions on Iran: Implications for Energy Security, Brookings, 9-12:30 June 29
Next month, international economic pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran will intensify dramatically. Although Iran has been the target of various U.S. and multilateral sanctions throughout most of the past three decades, the latest measures are the most severe in history. These actions have been credited with reviving Iran’s interest in negotiations with the world, but they have yet to persuade Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and are creating new challenges for the international coalition that has sought to constrain Iran. They also pose new uncertainties for energy markets and the international economy at a precarious period in the global recovery and the U.S. presidential campaign.
On June 29, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a discussion assessing the wide-ranging implications of the Iran sanctions regime and consider the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue.
After each panel, participants will take audience questions.
Details
June 29, 2012
9:00 AM – 12:30 PM EDT
Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W.
For More Information
Brookings Office of Communications
events@brookings.edu
202.797.6105
Event Agenda
- 9:00Welcoming Remarks
- 9:15Panel One: Strategic and Energy Implications of Iran Sanctions
-
Moderator
-
-
-
- 10:45Break
- 11:00Panel Two: International Approaches to Iran Sanctions
-
Moderator
-
-
-
Tanvi Madan
Fellow
The Brookings Institution
-
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Playing chess with Mike Tyson
I might wish that were the name of William Dobson‘s book about how dictators are adjusting to contemporary pro-democracy rebellions, as the original text of this post said, but really it’s Dictatorship 2.0. I haven’t read it but intend to do so, as there was a lively discussion of it yesterday at the Carnegie Endowment with Karim Sadjadpour chairing, Dobson presenting, Otpor‘s Srdja Popovic and Marc Lynch commenting.
It is hard to be an old style dictator today, Dobson avers. Really only North Korea is left, as Burma has begun to adjust. The plug can’t be pulled on communications, which means dictators need to get savvy and use more subtle forms of repression: targeted tax inspections, contested but unfree and unfair elections (preferably with the opposition fragmented), control over television and the courts, big handouts to the populace. Dictatorships today do not aim for ideological monopolies but rather to prevent and disrupt mobilization.
Oppositions have to adjust as well. Srdja outlined the basics: they need unity, planning and nonviolent discipline. They must be indigenous. Internationals can help, mainly through education and help with communications. Protesters need to avoid confronting dictatorial regimes where they are strong and attack them where they are weak. You don’t challenge Mike Tyson to box; better to play chess with him. This means avoiding military action in Syria, for example, and focusing on the regime’s economic weakness. The contest is between opposition enthusiasm and the fear the regime seeks to impose. Humor and “dispersive” tactics that do not require mass assembly in the streets (work and traffic slowdowns, boycotts, graffiti, cartoons) are increasingly important in reducing fear.
Marc emphasized the sequence of events in the Arab awakening: Ben Ali’s flight from Tunisia made people elsewhere realize what was possible, Mubarak’s overthrow in Egypt made it seem inevitable, Libya and Yemen were far more difficult, a reversal that has continued in Syria, where the regime has substantial support from Alawites and Christians afraid of what will happen to them if the revolution succeeds. The tipping point comes when perception of a regime changes from its being merely bad to being immoral.
So who is next? Saudi Arabia and Jordan are in peril, Marc suggested. Bahrain is living on borrowed time. Srdja suggested Iran, which is moving backwards towards an old style dictatorship after the defeat of its Green Movement, can only be challenged successfully if the protesters learn from their mistakes. They need better leadership and a focus on the state’s inability to deliver services. China, Dobson said, has been good at pre-empting large protests. Burma may not be adjusting quickly enough to avoid an upheaval.
I didn’t hear mention of Russia, Cuba, Algeria, and lots of other places that might be candidates, but no one was trying to be comprehensive. Wherever they may be, dictatorships will adjust to what they see happening elsewhere and try to protect their monopoly on power from those who challenge it. Their opponents will also need to adjust. It is thus in both war and peace.
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This week’s peace picks
We are down to four-day weeks, but lots of interesting events anyway:
1. Egypt’s Elections: The End of the Revolution, or a New Beginning? Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, 9:30 June 18
A Conversation with Khairi Abaza, Steven Cook, John Hannah and Oren Kessler
Monday, June 18
9:30 am-11:00 am
Breakfast and registration will begin at 9:15 am
RSVP Below.
Egypt has reached an historical crossroads. The two presidential candidates, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik, present very different visions for Egypt. Shafik represents the old guard of the Mubarak era. Morsi represents the ascendant Muslim Brotherhood. In the wake of this momentous election, what direction will Egypt take? Why, after months of analysis, did scholars and Washington officials alike, incorrectly estimate the will of the Egyptian people? Will the elections lead to additional chaos and disorder, or will the results of this election bring closure and help Egypt move toward greater stability?
To assess these questions and others, FDD is pleased to host a breakfast conversation with:
Khairi Abaza, a scholar at FDD, noted for his focus on democratic reform in the Arab world, the spread of terrorism, and the influence of the media on politics. His columns appeared in various publications such as International Herald Tribune, The New Republic, Newsweek, Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, and The Weekly Standard. He is also a commentator on several American and international television stations such as Fox, BBC, France 24, Al-Jazeera and CBC. Before coming to Washington, Mr. Abaza worked for ten years in Egyptian politics. He served as a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee and secretary of the Cultural Committee of the Egyptian Wafd Party. Mr. Abaza recently returned from Egypt where he had an up close look at the unfolding developments. Read his full bio here.
Steven Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). He is an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy. Dr. Cook is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square and Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey. He has published widely in a variety of foreign policy journals, opinion magazines, and newspapers including Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, the Journal of Democracy, The Weekly Standard, Slate, The New Republic Online, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the International Herald Tribune, and Survival. Dr. Cook is also a frequent commentator on radio and television. He currently writes the blog, “From the Potomac to the Euphrates.” Prior to joining CFR, Dr. Cook was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution (2001–2002) and a Soref research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (1995–96).
John Hannah, who brings almost two decades of experience at the highest levels of U.S. foreign policy to his work as Senior Fellow at FDD. From 2001-2009, Mr. Hannah served as one of Vice President Dick Cheney’s most trusted aides on national security issues. He served as the Vice President’s deputy national security advisor for the Middle East, where he was intimately involved in U.S. policy toward Iraq, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, the peace process, and the global war on terrorism and later as the Vice President’s national security advisor, where he served as the Vice President’s top advisor on the full panoply of international issues from the Middle East to North Korea to Russia. Previously, Mr. Hannah worked as a senior advisor on the staff of Secretary of State Warren Christopher during the administration of President William J. Clinton, and as a senior member of Secretary of State James A. Baker’s Policy Planning Staff during the presidency of George H.W. Bush. Mr. Hannah writes and speaks widely on issues related to American foreign policy. His articles have appeared in such publications as the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Wall Street Journal. He blogs regularly at ForeignPolicy.com and National Review Online. Read his full bio here.
Oren Kessler, a Tel Aviv-based journalist covering Israel and the Middle East. Oren is the former Middle East affairs correspondent for The Jerusalem Post, and previously worked as an editor and translator at Haaretz. His articles have appeared in Foreign Policy, Middle East Quarterly, the Journal of International Security Affairs, Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs and other publications, and he is a frequent guest on international news programs discussing Israel and the Arab world. Oren holds an Hon. BA in History from the University of Toronto and an MA in Diplomacy and Conflict Studies from the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. Fluent in Hebrew and Spanish, he has studied literary and colloquial Arabic in the United States, the Diwaan center in Tel Aviv and Al-Quds University in East Jerusalem.
Open press coverage. Advance RSVP required. Camera setup at 8:30 am
Washington, DC 20036
Questions? Contact erin@defenddemocracy.org or 202.250.6144
2. Getting serious on Syria: Can we close the Assad era without opening a can of worms? AEI, 1-3 pm June 18
| Date / Time |
Monday, June 18 / 1:00pm Register with host
|
|---|---|
| Location |
American Enterprise Institute 1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
|
| Speakers | John Mccain, Ammar Abdulhamid, Brian Fishman, David Schenker, Lee Smith, Michael Rubin |
| Description | As the Syrian uprising approaches its sixteenth month, any remaining hope that Assad will end the bloodshed has evaporated. Neither international condemnation nor the dispatching of United Nations monitors has reduced violence in the country. Moreover, Russia and Iran continue to arm the regime. While U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has declared that the ‘Assad regime’s brutality against its own people must and will end,’ neither she nor the White House has outlined a strategy to meet that goal. While the Obama administration invoked a ‘Responsibility to Protect’ doctrine to justify military action in Libya, it has pointedly refused to do so in Syria. Do any options short of military force remain to end bloodshed in Syria? Is the Syrian opposition ready to govern, or would Assad’s fall unleash a sectarian and ethnic civil war? What would regime change in Syria mean for Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the U.S.? Join a panel of seasoned Syria experts as they debate these issues and more.Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will open the discussion with a keynote address.If you cannot attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.12:45 PMRegistration1:00 PMKeynote Address
John McCain, U.S. Senate (R-Ariz.) 1:30 PM Panelists: Ammar Abdulhamid, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Brian Fishman, New America Foundation David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Lee Smith, The Weekly Standard Moderator: Michael Rubin, AEI 3:00 PM Adjournment |
3. Threats to Nigeria’s Security:Boko Haram and Beyond, Jamestown Foundation at Carnegie Endowment, 9-12 June 19
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Root Conference Room
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
Registration
8:45 A.M. – 9:00 A.M.
***
Introduction
Glen E. Howard
President, The Jamestown Foundation
***
Panel One:
Domestic Factors of Instability in Nigeria
9:00 A.M. – 10:30 A.M.
Jacob Zenn
“Instability in Northern Nigeria: The View From The Ground”
Analyst for West African Affairs
The Jamestown Foundation
Dibussi Tande
“Beyond Boko Haram: The Rise of Militant Islam in Nigeria & Cameroon”
Journalist & Blogger on Nigerian Security Issues
Dr. Andrew McGregor
“Central African Militant Movements: The Northern Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon Nexus”
Editor in Chief, Global Terrorism Analysis
The Jamestown Foundation
Mark McNamee
“The Niger Delta & The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)”
Analyst, The Jamestown Foundation
Q & A
***
Coffee Break
10:30 A.M. – 10:45 A.M.
***
Panel Two:
Nigerian Security Issues and US-Nigeria Relations
10:45 A.M. – 12:00 A.M.
Lauren Ploch Blanchard
“US – Nigeria Relations and the United States Response to Boko Haram”
Specialist in African Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Carl LeVan
“The Political Basis for Demilitarization and Dialogue in Nigeria”
Assistant Professor of African Politics, American University
Colonel Gene McConville
“Will Nigeria Develop A Counter-Terrorism Policy?”
Senior Military Advisor, Africa Center For Strategic Studies
Ambassador Eunice Reddick
“U.S.-Nigeria Engagement on Regional Security”
Director of the Office of West African Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Q & A
***
Concluding Remarks:
12:15 P.M.
***
Participant Biographies
Lauren Ploch Blanchard
Mrs. Blanchard provides nonpartisan analysis on African political, military and diplomatic affairs, and on U.S. policy in the region, to Members of the United States Congress, congressional committees, and congressional staff. She has written extensively on security issues on the continent, and has testified before Congress on U.S. military engagement and counterterrorism efforts in Africa. Prior to joining CRS, she managed governance programs in East and Southern Africa. Previously, Mrs. Blanchard served as Legislative Assistant in the United States Senate. She holds a master’s degree in National Security Studies from Georgetown University and a bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Classical Studies, with a minor in African Studies, from the University of Florida. Her publications include: Africa Command: U.S. Strategic Interests and the Role of the U.S. Military in Africa; Piracy off the Horn of Africa; Countering Terrorism in East Africa: The U.S. Response; Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and Implications for U.S. Policy; and Nigeria: Issues for Congress; among others.
Carl LeVan
Carl LeVan is an Assistant Professor in the School of International Service at American University in Washington, D.C., where he is Africa Coordinator for Comparative and Regional studies. His articles on power-sharing in East Africa, democratization and civil society in Nigeria, the U.S. military’s Africa Command, and comparative authoritarianism have appeared in journals such as Governance, Africa Today, Democratization, Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, and Journal of African Elections. Prior to receiving his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California—San Diego, he worked as a legislative director on Capitol Hill, and then as the National Democratic Institute’s first Country Director in Nigeria. His research focuses on comparative political institutions, democratization, and political development. He recently finished a book manuscript on Nigerian government performance, and his new project (with the distinguished Latin Americanist, Todd Eisenstadt) explores the consequences of constitutional reform. He publishes the blog Development4Security at carllevan.com.
Colonel Gene McConville
U.S. Army Colonel Gene McConville joined the Africa Center in October 2010 for a three-year assignment as Senior Military Advisor, Academic Affairs. Colonel McConville oversees curriculum and program development in the area of International Crisis Response and Management. Prior to joining the Africa Center, Colonel McConville was a Staff Officer, International Security Assistance Force/U.S. Forces Afghanistan. Colonel McConville has significant experience in Africa having served as the Army Attaché to the Federal Republic of Nigeria from 1991-1994.
Andrew McGregor
Andrew McGregor is Director of Toronto-based Aberfoyle International Security and Managing Editor of the Jamestown Foundation’s Global Terrorism Analysis publications. He received a Ph.D. from the University of Toronto’s Department of Near and Middle Eastern Civilizations in 2000 and is a former Research Associate of the Canadian Institute of International Affairs. He has worked as a consultant to New Scotland Yard’s SO15 Counter Terrorism Command and provided expert witness for the UK’s Crown Prosecution Service. His latest book is A Military History of Modern Egypt, published by Praeger Security International in 2006. Dr. McGregor has written over 300 articles on international security issues for organizations including Jane’s Intelligence, the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Canadian Institute of Strategic Studies. He is the author of an archaeological history of Darfur published by Cambridge University in 2001 and provides frequent commentary on military and security issues for international newspapers, radio and television, including the New York Times, Financial Times, and the BBC.
Mark McNamee
Mark McNamee is an Intelligence Analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa at an international risk consulting firm in the Washington, D.C. region as well as a contract employee for the U.S. Army Combating Terrorism Center. He has an M.A. in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University (SAIS), with concentrations in Russian & Eurasian Studies and International Economics, and studied Russian in St. Petersburg, Russia for two years.
Eunice S. Reddick
Ms. Reddick is a career diplomat in the Senior Foreign Service, currently assigned to the State Department’s Africa bureau as Director of the Office of West African Affairs. She was appointed U.S. Ambassador to Gabon and Sao Tome and Principe from 2007-10. Prior to her current assignment, Eunice was Diplomat in Residence at Howard University. She has worked at U.S. embassies in Zimbabwe, Cote d’Ivoire, and China. During her more than 30 years of diplomatic service, she has also been assigned to the Bureaus of Population, Refugees and Migration Affairs; International Organization Affairs; East Asian and Pacific Affairs; and the Secretary’s Operations Center as Senior Watch Officer. She was awarded a Dean and Virginia Rusk Fellowship and spent a year at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University. Born and raised in New York City, Eunice received a BA in history and literature from New York University, and a Master’s degree in international affairs from Columbia University.
Dibussi Tande
Dibussi Tande is the leading Cameroonian blogger who publishes the award-winning blog, Scribbles from the Den. A former Associate Editor of Cameroon Life Magazine and Cameroon Today, Tande writes for a variety of print and online journals, and has contributed to a variety of publication such as the BBC’s Focus on Africa magazine, The Rhodes Journalism Review and Pambazuka, the authoritative pan-African electronic weekly newsletter. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Public Law from the University of Yaounde, and Masters Degrees in Political Science and Instructional Technology from Northeastern Illinois University and Northern Illinois University respectively. He recently published a book on politics and collective memory in Cameroon.
Dibussi Tande’s interests include the use of social media for political activism and social advocacy, the role of citizen journalism in Africa, and the rise of Radical Islam in West Africa with a focus on Cameroon and Nigeria.
Jacob Zenn
Jacob Zenn is an Analyst for West African and Central Asian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation and author of the upcoming book “Boko Haram in West Africa: Al Qaeda’s Next Frontier?,” which is based on his field research in Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger in May and June 2012. Mr. Zenn earned a J.D. from Georgetown Law as a Global Law Scholar and a Certificate in International Affairs from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Nanjing Center for Chinese-American Studies in Nanjing, China. At Georgetown Law he carried out a fellowship in Yemen sponsored by the American Society of International Law (ASIL) and Chadbourne & Parke LLP’s Middle-East North Africa Team during which time he also observed elections in Somaliland. Formerly a political risk consultant, he writes regularly for the Jamestown Foundation’s Militant Leadership Monitor and Terrorism Monitor publications focusing on Nigeria and Central Asia and contributes articles for Asia Times, SAIS Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst and the CTC Sentinel. Jacob has been a charter member of the National Language Service Corps since 2011 for Bahasa Indonesia, Mandarin Chinese and Arabic (MSA) and was a State Department Critical Language Scholar in Malang, Indonesia in 2011.
4. Arms racing in Asia? Who’s winning, who’s losing
1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036
(Two blocks from Farragut North Metro)
This year, Asian military spending is expected to exceed Europe’s military spending for the first time in history. Moreover, Asian nations are funding the development of significant new capabilities. China’s first aircraft carrier embarked on its maiden voyage last year; Japan announced its intention to acquire F-35s; and India tested a long-range missile capable of striking Beijing, China.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is implementing a new operational concept called AirSea Battle. What factors are propelling this widespread military modernization? What are the implications for the military balance in Asia? Is Asia in an arms race? At this AEI event, two expert panels will examine major trends in Asian military modernization to assess their impact on power dynamics in the region.
If you cannot attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.
9:15 AM
Registration
9:30 AM
Panel I: The Asia-Pacific Poles
Panelists:
Dan Blumenthal, AEI
Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings Institution
Chuck Jones, Lockheed Martin Corporation
Moderator:
Thomas Donnelly, AEI
10:30 AM
Question and Answer Session
10:45 AM
Panel II: U.S. Allies and Partners
Panelists:
Michael Auslin, AEI
Bruce Bechtol, Angelo State University
Michael Mazza, AEI
Mark Stokes, Project 2049 Institute
Moderator:
Gary J. Schmitt, AEI
11:45 AM
Question and Answer Session
12:00 PM
Adjournment
For more information, please contact Lara Crouch at lara.crouch@aei.org, 202.862.7160.
For media inquiries, please contact Véronique Rodman at vrodman@aei.org, 202.862.4871.
5. Israeli National Security Strategy in the Expanded Coalition, 3:30-5 pm June 19
Also available in العربية
A Conversation with Shaul Mofaz, vice prime minister of Israel
Watch live streaming video from washingtoninstitute at livestream.com
Shaul Mofaz’s victory in the Kadima primary election and subsequent decision to bring his party into the governing coalition sent shockwaves through Israel, changing the dynamics of regional politics. To discuss his strategy for security and peace, and ways in which the expanded coalition can promote these goals, The Washington Institute invited Lt. Gen. (res.) Shaul Mofaz to address a late-afternoon Policy Forum on June 19, 2012, from 3:30 to 5:00 p.m. EDT.
Shaul Mofaz is vice prime minister of Israel, minister without portfolio, and head of the Kadima Party. Previously the deputy prime minister, he has also served as minister of defense and, in his distinguished military career, as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. He is a former military fellow at The Washington Institute.
Request an invitation to attend this event.
Watch live via webcast here Tuesday, June 19, 2012, from 3:30-5:00 p.m. EDT.
6. Afghanistan after NATO: An Afghan Perspective on Security and Development, 4:30-6 pm June 19
with
Albert Santoli (Moderator)
Founder and President of Asia America Initiative
General Hillaluddin Hilal
Member of the Afghanistan Parliament
General Ahmad Rahmani
CEO, IBEX Corporation, Afghanistan
Amb. Omar Samad
Former Afghan Ambassador to Canada
Qasim Tarin
Co-Founder and Chairman, Afghan Business Network
President and CEO, Electro Imaging Systems
Javid Ahmad (Invited)
Program Coordinator, German Marshall Fund’s Asia program
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
4:30 PM
The Institute of World Politics
1521 16th Street NW
Washington, DC 20036
Please RSVP to kbridges@iwp.edu.
NATO is now concluding a costly presence in Afghanistan, and the withdrawal of troops is gradually being conducted. The country, however, will remain a critical platform for international peace and stability for many decades to come. A resurgent Taliban would create a haven to inspire and train local and international terrorist groups. The production of opium would continuously fuel instability, crime, and corruption across Central Asia, the Balkans, Russia, and parts of Western Europe. Rivalries for influence and competition over Afghanistan’s natural resources could intensify competition between Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and India. Endemic humanitarian crises for the Afghan people could be unbearable.
We often hear the opinions of commentators from the West. But what is the perspective of Afghan citizens who have devoted their lives to the freedom and rebuilding of their homeland? What will Afghanistan, the region, and the world look like in 2014-2015? Inside of Afghanistan, what type of post-occupation regime will take shape? What will be the influence or interference of Afghanistan’s neighbors? Can the narcotics trade be curtailed? Can civil war supported by Afghanistan’s neighbors be avoided? What effective options do the West, and above all, the Afghan people, still have?
Important components to peace and development are not only credible politics and economic development, but also effective transportation and logistical systems. Without road or air access into Afghanistan through Pakistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (under Russian influence or control), can a stable economy be built and sustained? Can humanitarian stability involving food and basic human needs for survival be achieved? Can struggling communities or a cohesive government be defended from attacks by well-supplied radicals? We will seek perspective on these questions from a panel of knowledgeable Afghan leaders who are dedicated in the fields of politics, economics, humanitarian issues, logistics and security.
This event is co-sponsored by The Institute of World Politics and Asia America Initiative.
Speakers
General Hillaluddin Hilal
General Hilal is a Member of the Afghanistan Parliament representing Baghlan Proivince from 2005 to present. He served as a former Deputy Minister of Interior for Security from 2003-05 and a former senior advisor to the legendary Afghan Freedom Fighter Ahmad Shah Massoud during the resistance war against the Taliban/Pakistan from 1998-2001. He was a three-star General in the Afghan Air Force, and was senior advisor to the Defense Minister of Tajikistan and during the mediation between President Rahmanov and Abdullah Nuri, leader of the strongest opposition group. From 1996-98, he was Minister of Transportation, Avaiation and Tourism. From 1993-95, General Hilal was Commandant of Afghanistan’s Northern Border Force.
General Ahmad Rahmani
General Rahmani is CEO of IBEX Corp in Afghanistan which provides security, air and ground transportation for international organizations, including NATO and UN agencies, and secure warehousing, logistics support, transportation and humanitarian assistance to Afghan refugees. He was Transportation Minster of Afghanistan during 1992-1997 under the transitional post-Soviet government. He was a General in the Afghanistan Air Force until retiring from the military in 2000.
Amb. Omar Samad
Amb. Omar Samad served as Afghanistan’s Ambassador to France from June 2009 to July 2011, while also accredited to Monaco. He served as Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Canada (2004-2009) and non-resident Afghan Ambassador to the Republic of Chile. From 2001 to 2004, he was the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kabul in capacity of Director General. He is currently a Senior Expert on Afghanistan at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC.
Born in Kabul in 1961 and son of a diplomat, he attended primary and secondary schooling in Kabul, Paris and London. Compelled to leave Afghanistan in 1979 following the Communist coup d’état, he settled in the United States, where he helped promote the cause of freedom and democracy in Afghanistan. For several years, Mr. Samad worked in the field of information technology, while pursuing a second career in media. In 1996, after achieving an MA at the Fletcher School, he launched Azadi Afghan Radio and website as part of the Afghanistan Information Center based in Virginia. He returned to Afghanistan in December 2001 and joined the Foreign Ministry. For many years, he has been a contributor and commentator for the international media, including CNN, the BBC, Al Jazeera and others. Most of his writings are published on the Foreign Policy blog.
Qasim Tarin
Qasim Tarin is the co-founder and Chairman of the Afghan Business Network and the President and CEO of Electro Imaging Systems. He is also the interim President of the Afghan-American Chamber of Commerce, Northern California Chapter. He has worked with large corporations such as Toshiba America, IBM, Cannon USA, Xerox Corporation, Hewlett Packard, and Ricoh Corporation USA. He is a member of Rotary International and the CEO Alliance Group.
Javid Ahmad (Invited)
Javid Ahmad is a Program Coordinator with German Marshall Fund’s Asia program where he works on a range of initiatives, including the India Forum, workshops on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Young Strategist Forum, Global Swing States, and the Brussels Forum. Prior to joining GMF, Ahmad worked in the Political and Legislative Section of the Embassy of Afghanistan and the Public Affairs Office of Voice of America. He previously worked for the Welfare Association for the Development of Afghanistan (WADAN) in Kabul and served as an International Elections Observer during Afghanistan’s Parliamentary Elections. Ahmad has been published in the Christian Science Monitor, The National Interest, Newsweek’s Daily Beast, The Diplomat and is also a regular contributor to Foreign Policy magazine’s AfPak Channel.
Albert Santoli, Panel Moderator
Al Santoli is Founder and President of Asia America Initiative, an international NGO dedicated to grassroots development, intercultural reconciliation, terror deterrence and peace building. From 1997-2001, he coordinated the only American program of non-governmental assistance to the anti-Taliban resistance in Afghanistan during the Taliban/al Qaeda reign of terror, while working as a foreign policy advisor in the US House of Representatives. His AAI Development for Peace project in Muslim Mindanao received a rare Philippines Presidential Citation for peace mediation and deterring terrorism in one of the most impoverished and conflict-plagued regions of Asia. He is a New York Times best selling author of military history and a long-time associate of the Institute of World Politics. In 1982, he was among the first international journalist to write for a major publication about the Soviet use of bio-chemical weapons in Afghanistan.
7. Dictatorship 2.0: Modern Authoritarian Regimes, Carnegie Endowment, 12:30-2 pm June 20
William Dobson, Srdja Popovic, Marc Lynch, Karim Sadjadpour
Register to attend
Amid the Arab Spring uprisings, the global war between freedom and repression is often perceived as a battle that pits tech-savvy, globalized democrats against out-of-touch, dim-witted dictatorships. In his acclaimed new book The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy, William Dobson, Slate politics and foreign affairs editor, takes us behind the scenes in both camps, and explores how authoritarian regimes are increasingly employing twenty-first century techniques to protect the twentieth century status quo.
Srdja Popovic, founder and leader of the Serbian student movement that brought down the Milosovic regime, will discuss how “people power” can prevail, and George Washington University professor Marc Lynch will discuss these dynamics in the context of today’s Middle East. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour will moderate.
8. When Iran Gets the Bomb: What Will It Do? What Will Others Do? What Will Be the Costs?, Hudson Institute, 9:30 am-12:30 pm June 21
As the world debates whether a steep price should be paid to stop prospects of an Iranian nuclear weapon, there remains little understanding of what consequences might flow from Iran’s possession of such weapons.
Hudson Institute will host a conference to analyze a world in which first Iran, and then some of Iran’s neighbors, become nuclear weapons states. The conference does not seek to prejudge whether Iran will be stopped from reaching its nuclear goals, but to explore in greater depth the kinds of problems that the free world may encounter over time if Iran is not stopped. This discussion may help illuminate the costs of failure and show how the United States can prepare for a world that includes a nuclear-armed Iran.
The conference will consist of two sessions held between 9:30 AM and 12:30 PM. They will be conducted in an interactive workshop fashion. The first session will discuss a world in which Iran has a small nuclear arsenal, and the second session will discuss a poly-nuclear Middle East.
Panelists:
Husain Haqqani, Boston University
Ali Alfoneh, American Enterprise Institute
David Wurmser, Delphi Global Analysis
Samantha Ravich, Former Deputy National Security Advisor, Office of the Vice President
Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique
Lee Smith, The Weekly Standard
Christopher Ford, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
The sessions will be moderated by Hudson Institute Senior Vice President Lewis Libby and Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Hillel Fradkin.
Betsy and Walter Stern
Conference Center
Hudson Institute
1015 15th St, NW,
6th Floor
Washington, DC 20005
This event will be streamed online here: http://www.hudson.org/watchlive.
Questions can be submitted via Twitter: @HudsonInstitute.
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Measuring peace
It is hard for me to know what to make of the Global Peace Index (GPI), the 2012 version of which was presented at CSIS this morning by Michael Shank of the Institute for Economics and Peace. I was originally trained as a scientist (through a master’s degree in physical chemistry at the University of Chicago). I take measurement and numbers seriously, which means I am skeptical of hodge-podge agglomerations of numbers based on implicit models not well articulated.
It is difficult to reduce a lot of things to numbers, and when you do the results aren’t always interesting. Thus it is with aspects of the GPI. Western Europe is the most peaceful region, followed by North America as well as Central and Eastern Europe. Asia Pacific comes in fourth. Latin America fifth. The laggards are sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Duh.
The individual country numbers and the changes from last year aren’t any more interesting: sure the Arab Spring pushed the MENA numbers down a bit. Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq and Democratic Republic of the Congo are at the bottom of the heap. Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe moved in the more peaceful direction. Syria, Egypt and Tunisia went the other way.
This suggests one big problem with the GPI. It counts countries undergoing revolutions as less peaceful, even if the overall direction from the perspective of their inhabitants may be positive. And it perceives the end of war in Sri Lanka and the power-sharing arrangement in Zimbabwe as positive developments, despite the real possibility that they are merely prelude to new violence.
The GPI has a big problem with the United States, which it ranks as middling in peacefulness because of its large military expenditures and arms exports. But as Lawrence Wilkerson pointed out during the presentation, these are a necessary concomitant of any country with global security responsibilities. If you play the role of world policeman, whether wisely or unwisely, you are going to need the power projection capabilities required as well as well-equipped allies. And some of the things you do are likely to contribute positively to peace. Emily Cadei, speaking from a Congressional perspective, confirmed that America’s politicians certainly do not see defense expenditure or arms exports as negative for American security.
Far more interesting than the country and regional numbers are the twenty-year trends and correlations for components of the GPI, which itself is remarkably unchanged in each region except the Middle East and North Africa since 2007, when it was first calculated. Military expenditures as a percentage of GDP are down everywhere except the United States, battle-related deaths are generally down too, with the notable exceptions of the Balkans in the 1990s, the Rwandan genocide and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
Where things really get interesting, as pointed out by Anne-Marie Slaughter in her introduction, is in correlation trends. To avoid getting it wrong, let me quote:
Both the Corruption Perception Index and per capita GDP have a similar looking relationship with the Global Peace Index. There appears to be a ‘tipping point’ for countries with a score of around 2 on the GPI. This meant that at a score of 2 on the peace index, small positive changes in peace had large positive impacts on corruption or per capital GDP. Similarly once past the score of 2 on the GPI small negative changes in corruption or per capita GDP were associated with large decreases in peace.
The data likewise confirms the relative peacefulness of full democracies. Of course these are correlations that confirm our fondest beliefs. There are still big questions about the direction and mechanism of causality.
New this year is the Positive Peace Index (PPI), whicch is intended to measure attitudes, institutions and structures that determine capacity to create and maintain a peaceful society. It is based on factors like well-functioning government, sound business environment, equitable distribution of resources, acceptance of the rights of others, good relations with neighbors, free flow of information, high levels of education and low levels of corruption. The difference between GPI and PPI is the “peace gap”:
A surplus means that the institutions, structures and attidudes of the country can support a higher level of peace than is being experienced, while the inverse, a deficit, signifies that the country may be fragile due to weaker than expected institutional capacity.
This is where the U.S. (as well as Israel and Bahrain) are shown to have more potential than they have realized. On the deficit side, there are relatively peaceful countries (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa) that seem to lack the institutions needed to manage “external shocks.” The PPI will presumably offer more interesting results in the future as trends emerge with time.
I’m not less skeptical of hodge-podge quantification than at breakfast this morning. But the GPI report is worth a look.
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This week’s peace picks
1. His Excellency Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations: Building and Sustaining Peace: The UN Role in Post-Conflict Situations, CSIS, 11-noon May 7
The Center for Strategic and International Studies Program on Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation (C3) invites you to a Statesmen’s Forum with
His Excellency Ban Ki-moon
Secretary-General of the United Nations
On
Building and Sustaining Peace: The UN Role in Post-Conflict Situations
Welcoming Remarks and Moderated by
Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski
Counselor and Trustee
CSIS
Monday, May 7, 11:00 a.m.–12:00 p.m.
B1 Conference Room
1800 K Street, NW, Washington DC 20006
This event will be webcast live and viewable on this webpage.
For questions or concerns, please contact statesmensforum@csis.org.
Ban Ki-moon is the eighth Secretary-General of the United Nations. His priorities have been to mobilize world leaders around a set of new global challenges, from climate change and economic upheaval to pandemics and increasing pressures involving food, energy, and water. He has sought to be a bridge builder, to give voice to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people, and to strengthen the organization itself. Mr. Ban took office on January 1, 2007. On June 21, 2011, he was unanimously reelected by the General Assembly and will continue to serve until December 31, 2016.
2. Decline of Armed Conflict: Will It Continue? Stimonson, 12:30-2 pm May 7
SIPRI North America, 1111 19th St. NW, 12th floor, Washington DC 20036
RSVP: Please click here.
There is a prevalent public perception that the world has become a more violent place. However, many leading experts agree that there has been a decline of violence and war since 1989. To expand upon these findings and explore their future implications, SIPRI North America will convene a roundtable discussion with two leading experts in the peace and conflict field.
The following key questions will be discussed by a panel of experts:
- What are the reasons behind the decline of armed conflict? And will the decline of armed conflict continue?
- What do we know about the nature and patterns of armed conflict?
- Should the definitions of armed conflict be adjusted?
- How does the Arab Spring fit into the paradigm of declining conflict?
- What role did and should the international community play in mitigating armed conflict?
Welcome: Dr. Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, Executive Director, SIPRI North America
Speakers:
- Dr. Sissela Bok, Board Member, SIPRI North America and Senior Visiting Fellow, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies (Moderator)
- Dr. Joshua S. Goldstein, Professor at the School of International Service, American University
- Dr. Peter Wallensteen, Dag Hammarskjöld Professor of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala Universit
*Light lunch and refreshments will be provided
If you have any questions, please contact Masha Keller at sipri-na@sipri.org
3. Thinking the Unthinkable: Potential Implications of Oil Disruption in Saudi Arabia, Heritage Foundation, noon-1:30 pm May 8
If an “Arab Spring” uprising completely disrupted Saudi oil production, the U.S. and the global economy would face a massive economic and strategic crisis. Russia and Iran as oil-producing states would likely exploit the crisis to increase their power around the world while undermining U.S. influence, especially in the Middle East. A crisis in Saudi Arabia would have drastic implications for the United States, its economy, and the whole world.
The U.S. must plan ahead and develop pro-active, multi-layered preventive and responsive strategies to deal with political threats to the security of oil supply. These would combine intelligence, military, and diplomatic tools as well as outline domestic steps the United States should take in such a crisis. Please join our distinguished panel of experts as they discuss strategic threats to oil supply; policy options available to the United States and to the oil consuming and producing states; and examine lessons learned from other Heritage Foundation energy crisis simulation exercises.
More About the Speakers
Ariel Cohen , Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Bruce Everett, Ph.D.
Adjunct Associate Professor of International Business, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Simon Henderson
Baker Fellow and Director, Gulf and Energy Policy Program, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Hosted By
4. The Consequences of Syria for Minorities in the Levant, Middle East Institute, noon-1 pm May 9
The Middle East Institute is proud to host journalist and author Jonathan C. Randal for a discussion about the impact of the conflict in Syria on neighboring Lebanon and its complicated religious and ethnic make-up. A tired joke among Lebanese asks why their much-battered country has been spared most of the turmoil that has attended the Arab Spring and its often violent ramifications elsewhere in the Middle East. The jest’s cynical answer: because Lebanon is automatically seeded for the finals. Such gallows humor reflects fears Lebanon will end up footing the bill whether the Alawite regime prevails in Damascus or succumbs to the largely Sunni Syrian opposition. Once again, the region’s minorities feel threatened by outsiders’ geostrategic considerations pitting Iran and its Syrian and Hezbollah allies against the United States. Europe, and the Gulf monarchies. Will the Syria conflict, like so many earlier Middle East conflicts, end up undermining, the role and status of the Levant’s Christian and other minority communities? Randal will draw from his many decades covering Lebanon for the Washington Post and from his book about Lebanon’s civil war, Going All the Way: Christian Warlords, Israeli Adventurers and the War in Lebanon (1983, Viking Press) which has been reissued by Just World Books with an all-new preface as The Tragedy of Lebanon: Christian Warlords, Israeli Adventurers and American Bunglers.
Speaker: Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS
Venue: IISS-US, 2121 K Street NW, Suite 801, Washington, DC 20037
Dr Dodge will discuss the future of Iraqi politics.
Dr Toby Dodge is Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He is also a Reader in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Dr Dodge has carried out extensive research in Iraq both before and after regime change, and has advised senior government officials on Iraq. He holds a PhD from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.
This meeting will be moderated by Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS-US and Corresponding Director, IISS-Middle East.
IISS-US events are for IISS members and direct invitees only. For more information, please contact events-washington@iiss.org or (202) 659-1490.
6. Will Democratic Governance Take Hold in the Middle East? IRI, 3-5 pm May 10
Agenda
9:00 am | Identifying the Hallmarks of 21st Century Conflict and How to Manage Conflict in Complex, Chaotic, and Fragile Environments
- Ambassador Rick Barton, Keynote Address
Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations - Robert Ricigliano, Introduction
Board Chair, Alliance for Peacebuilding - Richard Solomon
President, U.S. Institute of Peace - Melanie Greenberg
President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding - Pamela Aall
Provost, Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, U.S. Institute of Peace
10:00 am | Results of the USIP-funded Peacebuilding Mapping Project
- Elena McCollim
Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego - Necla Tschirgi
Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego - Jeffrey Helsing, Discussant
Dean of Curriculum, Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, U.S. Institute of Peace
11:20 am | How Other Fields Manage Complexity — And What Peacebuilding Can Learn From Them
- Bernard Amadei
Founder, Engineers without Borders - Simon Twigger
Department of Physiology, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee - Daniel Chiu
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Office of the Secretary of Defense - Timothy Ehlinger
Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee - Sheldon Himelfarb, Moderator
Director, Center of Innovation: Science, Technology and Peacebuilding,
U.S. Institute of Peace
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