Tag: Democracy and Rule of Law

This week’s peace picks

1. His Excellency Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations:  Building and Sustaining Peace: The UN Role in Post-Conflict Situations, CSIS, 11-noon May 7

His Excellency Ban Ki-moon Secretary-General of the United Nations

The Center for Strategic and International Studies Program on Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation (C3) invites you to a Statesmen’s Forum with

His Excellency Ban Ki-moon
Secretary-General of the United Nations

On

Building and Sustaining Peace: The UN Role in Post-Conflict Situations

Welcoming Remarks and Moderated by

Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski
Counselor and Trustee
CSIS

Monday, May 7, 11:00 a.m.–12:00 p.m.
B1 Conference Room
1800 K Street, NW, Washington DC 20006

This event will be webcast live and viewable on this webpage.

For questions or concerns, please contact statesmensforum@csis.org.

Ban Ki-moon is the eighth Secretary-General of the United Nations. His priorities have been to mobilize world leaders around a set of new global challenges, from climate change and economic upheaval to pandemics and increasing pressures involving food, energy, and water. He has sought to be a bridge builder, to give voice to the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people, and to strengthen the organization itself. Mr. Ban took office on January 1, 2007. On June 21, 2011, he was unanimously reelected by the General Assembly and will continue to serve until December 31, 2016.

2.  Decline of Armed Conflict: Will It Continue? Stimonson, 12:30-2 pm May 7

SIPRI North America hosts a conversation about the causes and future implications of the recent decline in armed conflict

 SIPRI North America, 1111 19th St. NW, 12th floor, Washington DC 20036

RSVP: Please click here.

There is a prevalent public perception that the world has become a more violent place. However, many leading experts agree that there has been a decline of violence and war since 1989. To expand upon these findings and explore their future implications, SIPRI North America will convene a roundtable discussion with two leading experts in the peace and conflict field.

The following key questions will be discussed by a panel of experts:

  •  What are the reasons behind the decline of armed conflict? And will the decline of armed conflict continue?
  • What do we know about the nature and patterns of armed conflict?
  • Should the definitions of armed conflict be adjusted?
  • How does the Arab Spring fit into the paradigm of declining conflict?
  • What role did and should the international community play in mitigating armed conflict?

Welcome: Dr. Chantal de Jonge Oudraat, Executive Director, SIPRI North America

Speakers:

  • Dr. Sissela Bok, Board Member, SIPRI North America and Senior Visiting Fellow, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies (Moderator)
  • Dr. Joshua S. Goldstein, Professor at the School of International Service, American University
  • Dr. Peter Wallensteen, Dag Hammarskjöld Professor of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala Universit

*Light lunch and refreshments will be provided

If you have any questions, please contact Masha Keller at sipri-na@sipri.org

3. Thinking the Unthinkable: Potential Implications of Oil Disruption in Saudi Arabia,  Heritage Foundation, noon-1:30 pm May 8

If an “Arab Spring” uprising completely disrupted Saudi oil production, the U.S. and the global economy would face a massive economic and strategic crisis. Russia and Iran as oil-producing states would likely exploit the crisis to increase their power around the world while undermining U.S. influence, especially in the Middle East. A crisis in Saudi Arabia would have drastic implications for the United States, its economy, and the whole world.

The U.S. must plan ahead and develop pro-active, multi-layered preventive and responsive strategies to deal with political threats to the security of oil supply. These would combine intelligence, military, and diplomatic tools as well as outline domestic steps the United States should take in such a crisis. Please join our distinguished panel of experts as they discuss strategic threats to oil supply; policy options available to the United States and to the oil consuming and producing states; and examine lessons learned from other Heritage Foundation energy crisis simulation exercises.

More About the Speakers

Ariel Cohen , Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, The Heritage Foundation

Bruce Everett, Ph.D.
Adjunct Associate Professor of International Business, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

Simon Henderson
Baker Fellow and Director, Gulf and Energy Policy Program, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Hosted By

David W. Kreutzer, Ph.D. David W. Kreutzer, Ph.D.Research Fellow in Energy Economics and Climate Change Read More

4.  The Consequences of Syria for Minorities in the Levant, Middle East Institute, noon-1 pm May 9

 

Location:

1761 N Street, NW

The Middle East Institute is proud to host journalist and author Jonathan C. Randal for a discussion about the impact of the conflict in Syria on neighboring Lebanon and its complicated religious and ethnic make-up.  A tired joke among Lebanese asks why their much-battered country has been spared most of the turmoil that has attended the Arab Spring and its often violent  ramifications elsewhere in the Middle East. The jest’s cynical answer: because Lebanon is automatically seeded for the finals.  Such gallows humor reflects fears Lebanon will end up footing the bill whether the Alawite regime prevails in Damascus or succumbs to the largely Sunni Syrian opposition. Once again, the region’s minorities feel threatened by outsiders’ geostrategic considerations pitting Iran and its Syrian and Hezbollah allies against the United States. Europe, and the Gulf monarchies. Will the Syria conflict, like so many earlier Middle East conflicts, end up undermining, the role and status of the Levant’s Christian and other minority communities? Randal will draw from his many decades covering Lebanon for the Washington Post and from his book about Lebanon’s civil war, Going All the Way: Christian Warlords, Israeli Adventurers and the War in Lebanon (1983, Viking Press) which has been reissued by Just World Books with an all-new preface as The Tragedy of Lebanon: Christian Warlords, Israeli Adventurers and American Bunglers.

 Bio: Jonathan C. Randal  began his long and distinguished career in journalism in Paris in 1957 as a stringer for United Press and Agence France-Presse.  He spent the next 40 plus years working as foreign correspondent for the Paris Herald, TIME,  The New York Times and for the Washington Post (from 1969 through 1998), where as senior foreign correspondent he reported from numerous war zones and covered conflict in sub-Saharan Africa,  Indochina, Eastern Europe  and the Middle East, including in Iran and Lebanon. He is the author of Going All the Way: Christian Warlords, Israeli Adventurers and the War in Lebanon (1983); After Such Knowledge, What Forgiveness? My Encounters With Kurdistan (1997); and Osama, The Making of a Terrorist (2004).
Register
5. Iraq: Caught Between Dictatorship and Civil War, IISS, 2-3 pm May 9
© AFP/Getty Images

Speaker: Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS

Venue: IISS-US, 2121 K Street NW, Suite 801, Washington, DC        20037

Dr Dodge will discuss the future of Iraqi politics.

Dr Toby Dodge is Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He is also a Reader in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Dr Dodge has carried out extensive research in Iraq both before and after regime change, and has advised senior government officials on Iraq. He holds a PhD from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London.

This meeting will be moderated by Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director, IISS-US and Corresponding Director, IISS-Middle East.

IISS-US events are for IISS members and direct invitees only. For more information, please contact events-washington@iiss.org or (202) 659-1490.

6. Will Democratic Governance Take Hold in the Middle East? IRI, 3-5 pm May 10

As democratic transitions continue in the Arab world, it is important to draw on the lessons in democratic governance from other countries in the region.  In Iraq, an increasingly accountable government has emerged in recent years, while Jordan’s mayors and municipalities have become more accountable to citizens but lack the financial and administrative independence from the government to advance true accountability and transparency.  The International Republican Institute (IRI) will host a discussion on the successes and challenges facing these countries and others, as well as implications of these efforts for the future of the Arab Spring.
For perspectives on the challenges and opportunities affecting the implementation of democratic governance in the Middle East, you are invited to attend IRI’s Democratic Governance Speakers Series, featuring a conversation with:
Marwan Muasher, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former senior official in the Jordanian government, who will address the state of democratic governance in the region;
Michele Dunne, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, who will discuss the current political situation and the lessons to be learned from the democratic transitions taking place; and
Khaled Huneifat, former mayor of Tafileh, Jordan, who will speak to the Jordanian experience in democratic governance.
Olin L. Wethington, Founder and Chairman of Wethington LLC and member of the Board of Directors of IRI will moderate the discussion.
7.  Peacebuilding 2.0: Managing Complexity and Working Across Silos, USIP, 9-12:15 May 11Peace as a concept is nearly universal in its appeal. Yet, despite the resources dedicated to its pursuit, stable peace remains elusive. There are complex and uncontrollable reasons for violent conflict, but the very system in which we operate contributes to the failure of reaching sustainable peace. Complex conflicts require solutions that are holistic, non-linear, and cumulative, rather than individual and disconnected. Peace is not possible if we continue to operate in a series of uncoordinated interventions.Instead, a systematic approach to peace requires the intentional linking of peacebuilding programs with efforts in democracy-building, human rights, health, education, development, and private sector initiatives. A wide range of actors, from development specialists to educators to national security experts, is increasingly aware of the need to build more holistic, non-linear, and synergistic, whole-of-community approaches, and is seeking to connect the silos.Please join us for a morning of discussions ranging from managing conflict in complex environments to lessons learned from USIP-funded projects. These special sessions, hosted at the United States Institute of Peace, are part of the 2012 Alliance for Peacebuilding’s Annual Conference and are free and open to the public. The Annual Conference will focus on new models for peacebuilding that works across disciplines in chaotic, fragile environments.

Agenda

9:00 am | Identifying the Hallmarks of 21st Century Conflict and How to Manage Conflict in Complex, Chaotic, and Fragile Environments

  • Ambassador Rick Barton, Keynote Address
    Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations
  • Robert Ricigliano, Introduction
    Board Chair, Alliance for Peacebuilding
  • Richard Solomon
    President, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Melanie Greenberg
    President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
  • Pamela Aall
    Provost, Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, U.S. Institute of Peace

10:00 am | Results of the USIP-funded Peacebuilding Mapping Project

  • Elena McCollim
    Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego
  • Necla Tschirgi
    Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego
  • Jeffrey Helsing, Discussant
    Dean of Curriculum, Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, U.S. Institute of Peace

11:20 am | How Other Fields Manage Complexity — And What Peacebuilding Can Learn From Them

  • Bernard Amadei
    Founder, Engineers without Borders
  • Simon Twigger
    Department of Physiology, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
  • Daniel Chiu
    Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Office of the Secretary of Defense
  • Timothy Ehlinger
    Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
  • Sheldon Himelfarb, Moderator
    Director, Center of Innovation: Science, Technology and Peacebuilding,
    U.S. Institute of Peace
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The coming week’s peace picks

Too  much this week, and most of it happening Wednesday:

1.  Are economic sanctions the key to resolving the nuclear dispute? CSIS, February 27, 6-8 pm.

The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) is pleased to invite you to a debate on the recent sanctions imposed on Iran. These sanctions target Iran’s banking sector and are widely believed to have had significant effects not just on Iran’s ability to acquire materials for its nuclear program, but also its energy sector and economy as a whole. Although many agree that Iranian development of a nuclear weapon would have serious security implications for the Middle East, questions about whether or not this is truly Iran’s intent and what the United States should do about it remain hotly contested. Does diplomacy still offer a means of resolving this issue and, if so, are the economic sanctions being passed on Iran making a diplomatic solution harder or easier to achieve?

Two highly distinguished scholars will come to CSIS to present opposing views on this issue and debate the policy of sanctioning Iran on its merits. The debate will feature:

Dr. Suzanne Maloney,

Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution

and

Mr. Michael Rubin,

Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute

Dr. Maloney will present her argument that sanctioning Iran has become counterproductive and that the U.S. “cannot hope to bargain with a country whose economy it is trying to disrupt and destroy.” Mr. Rubin will take the opposing view that “only overwhelming pain” will convince the Iranian leadership to cooperate fully with the IAEA.

A cocktail reception with appetizers will begin at 6:00pm and the debate will commence at 6:30pm. 

RSVP to David Slungaard at dslungaard@csis.org.

Webast: For those that cannot attend, the debate will live streamed. A link to the webcast will posted on this page on the day of the debate.

This event is the 13th installment of PONI’s ongoing Live Debate Series, which is an extension of the PONI Debates the Issues blog. The objective of the series is to provide a forum for in-depth exploration of the arguments on both sides of key nuclear policy issues. Please join us for what promises to be an exciting debate on a crucial issue of concern for the nonproliferation community, international security analysts, and regional specialists focusing on the Middle East.

2. Policing Iraq, USIP, February 29, 9:30-11:30 am

Under Saddam Hussein, a complex web of intelligence and security institutions protected the regime and repressed the Iraqi people.  Underfunded and mismanaged, the Iraqi police were least among those institutions and unprepared to secure the streets when Coalition Forces arrived in 2003 and disbanded the rest of the security apparatus.  Iraq’s police forces have made important strides, and some 400,000 Iraqi police have been trained and stationed across the country.  However, with the U.S. drawdown in Iraq, the future of the Iraqi police and U.S. police assistance is uncertain.

On February 29, the United States Institute of Peace and the Institute for the Study of War will co-host a panel of distinguished experts who will discuss the history of the Iraqi police and the U.S. police assistance program in Iraq.  This public event will introduce a new USIP Special Report by Robert Perito on “The Iraq Federal Police: U.S. Police Building under Fire.”

Speakers

  • General Jim Dubik (U.S. Army, ret.), Panelist
    Senior Fellow, Institute for the Study of War
    Former Commander, Multi National Security Transition Command-Iraq
  • Dr. Austin Long, Panelist
    Assistant Professor, Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs
  • Ginger Cruz, Panelist
    Former Deputy Inspector General, Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR)
  • Robert Perito, Moderator
    Director, Security Sector Governance Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
    Author, USIP Special Report, “The Iraq Federal Police: U.S. Police Building under Fire
  • Tara Sonenshine, Introduction
    Executive Vice President, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Marisa Cochrane Sullivan,Introduction
    Deputy Director, Institute for the Study of War

3. Webs of Conflict and Pathways to Peace in the Horn of Africa: A New Approach? Woodrow Wilson Center, 6th floor auditorium, February 29, 10-11:30 am

The Horn of Africa is one of the world’s most conflicted regions, experiencing over 200 armed conflicts since 1990. In recent months, the region has been afflicted with drought, famine, refugee migrations and military confrontations. All of these dynamics have catapulted the Horn of Africa upwards on the priority list for US policymakers.

In response to this on-going crisis, the Wilson Center’s Project on Leadership and Building State Capacity established a Horn of Africa Steering Committee in 2010 that focused on developing a regional US policy framework for the Horn. A conflict mapping report that analyses the major patterns, cross-cutting issues, and interrelationships in the Horn’s ongoing armed conflicts was subsequently commissioned, as well as a set of recommendations for US policy in the region going forward.

On February 29, 2012, the Leadership Project, in partnership with Alliance for Peacebuilding and Institute for Horn of Africa Studies and Analysis (IHASA) The overall objective of the recommendations publication is to employ a conflict resolution-oriented approach to a US regional framework for the Horn, including the need to promote good governance, increase human security (not just state or regime security), strengthen regional cooperation, and boost economic development and regional economic integration.

This event will be taking place at the Woodrow Wilson Center in the 6th Floor Auditorium on February 29th from 10:00am-11:30am.  Please RSVP to leadership@wilsoncenter.org.

Program Agenda

Scene-Setter

Paul Williams, Associate Professor, George Washington University

Discussants

Akwe Amosu, Director, Africa Advocacy, Open Society Institute (Invited)

Chic Dambach, Chief of Staff, Congressman John Garamendi, CA

Raja Jandhyala, Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Africa, US Agency for International Development

Ambassador David Shinn, Former Ambassador to Ethiopia and Professor, George Washington University

Location:

6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center
4.  Iran and Israel: The Politics of War, Brookings,  February 29, 10:30 am- 12 noon
Israel and Iran have already been trading covert punches and the overheated rhetoric on both sides raises the potential for further escalation. While much has been said about Israeli military options, cautions from the Obama administration, and the Iranian response, the role of internal politics in both countries is typically left out of the discussion. How do domestic political concerns inside Israel and Iran shape their relationship and the chance of war? Does Israel’s perception of the Iranian threat put it at odds with Washington?

Event Information

When

Wednesday, February 29, 2012
10:30 AM to 12:00 PM

Where

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map

Contact: Brookings Office of Communications

Email: events@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

Register Now

Participants

Panelists

Suzanne Maloney

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

Natan B. Sachs

Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

Shibley Telhami

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

5. Presidential Elections in Russia – What’s Next?, Carnegie Endowment, February 29, 12:30-2 pm

Dmitri Trenin, James F. Collins

Register to attend

With Russia’s presidential election less than a month away, Vladimir Putin is facing the most serious challenge since the establishment of his “power vertical.” Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets across Russia, undeterred by plunging winter temperatures. Moscow is also facing challenges abroad—its recent veto of the United Nations Security Council resolution condemning the Syrian regime has threatened its relations with much of the Arab world, and the U.S.-Russia “reset” appears stuck in neutral.

Dmitri Trenin and Ambassador James F. Collins will discuss how Russia’s presidential elections will influence its policies.
6. China’s International Energy Strategies: Global and Regional Implications, Elliott School (Lindner Family Commons) February 29, 12:30-1:45 pm

Philip Andrews-Speed, Fellow, Transatlantic Academy, the German Marshall Fund of the United States; Associate Fellow, Chatham House

Discussant: Llewelyn Hughes, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, GW

China is now a major player in the international energy arena. Imports of all forms of energy are increasing; national energy companies are investing around the world; and the government is active in different forms of energy diplomacy. These behaviors are driven by a range of interests from within and outside China. The external political consequences are rather greater than the economic ones, and vary around the world. China is a key player, along with Japan, in the progress of energy cooperation in East Asia.

RSVP at: http://go.gwu.edu/ASFeb29

Sponsored by Sigur Center for Asian Studies

7.   Assessing U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities Amidst Economic Challenges:  The Foreign Relations Budget for Fiscal Year 2013, 2172 Rayburn, February 29, 1:30 pm

Full Committee

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Chairman

You are respectfully requested to attend the following open hearing of the Full Committee to be held in Room 2172 of the Rayburn House Office Building.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012
1:30 PM
Room 2172 of the Rayburn House Office Building

The Honorable Hillary Rodham Clinton
Secretary of State
U.S. Department of State

8.  To What Extent Is Iran a Threat to Israel?  1055 Thomas Jefferson Street NW, Suite M100 February 29, 4-6 pm

9.   Measuring and Combating Corruption in the 21st Century, SAIS Rome building rm 200, March 2, 12:30-2 pm

Hosted By: International Development Program
Time: 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM
Location: Room 200, The Rome Building

Summary: Nathaniel Heller, co-founder and executive director of Global Integrity, will discuss this topic. For more information and to RSVP, contact developmentroundtable@jhu.edu.

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From rebellion to revolution

The Irmgard Coninx Stiftung at the Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung is circulating this notice for scholars, activists and journalists:

16th Berlin Roundtables on Transnationality, October 17 – 20, 2012

From Rebellion to Revolution: Dynamics of Political Change Submission deadline is June 30, 2012.

Based on an international essay competition, we will invite approximately 45 applicants to discuss their research, concerns and agendas with peers and prominent scholars in Berlin. The competition is open to students and scholars (max. up to 5 years after Ph.D.), journalists and activists interested in revolutionary processes (e.g. government agencies, NGOs).

The Irmgard Coninx Foundation will cover travel to and accommodation in Berlin.

Conference papers can address but are not limited to the following topics:

– dynamics of political/system change

– democratization and human rights in revolutionary processes

– violence

– mass mobilization

– (new) media and revolution today

– role of elites and elite competition/coalitions

– role of military and police forces

– economic and political reasons for rebellion and their course

– cultural and religious factors influencing revolutions

– demographic and social background of revolutions

– foreign military and humanitarian intervention

– revolution/rebellion as analytical and normative concept

Discussions will take place in three workshops chaired by Wolfgang Merkel (Humbold-Universität zu Berlin/WZB), Christoph Stefes (University of Colorado Denver/WZB), Jeff Goodwin (New York University) and Sonja Hegasy (Zentrum Moderner Orient).

The conference will be accompanied by evening lectures by Nancy Fraser (The New School for Social Research) and Amr Hamzawy (requested, University of Cairo/Freedom Egypt Party).

Conference participants are eligible to apply for one of up to three three-month fellowships to be used for research in Berlin at the WZB.

For further information on the conference and the background paper:

http://www.irmgard-coninx-stiftung.de/revolutions.html

Tags :

This is called retrenchment

We all anticipated this State of the Union speech would not focus on international issues, but here is my short list of more important things not mentioned or glossed over:

  • West Bank settlements (or Palestinians)
  • North Korea
  • Euro crisis
  • Africa or Latin America (not even Cuba),
  • Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, virtually no Egypt, Tunisia or Yemen
  • China (except as an unfair competitor)
  • Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, India or even Russia (except as an emerging market)
  • Pakistan (except as an Al Qaeda haven)
  • Strait of Hormuz

That’s a pretty spectacular list, even without noting the absence of NATO, Japan, allies, Europe, the UN…

A few notable items that were mentioned:

  • Strong on regime change in Syria (putting Assad in the same sentence with Qaddafi could have implications) and on exporting democracy and free markets in general
  • Positive about peaceful resolution of the dispute with Iran over nuclear weapons, while keeping all options on the table
  • Trade agreements with South Korea, Panama and Colombia
  • Burma as the hope of the Pacific!

Of course the President also mentioned withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, security cooperation with Israel, blows delivered against Al Qaeda, and the troops (no mention of civilians serving abroad this time around I’m afraid).

If this is a prelude to the campaign, as rightly it should be, it presages an ever more economically focused foreign policy, with security issues narrowed to a few top priorities and little focus on diplomacy except on a few specific issues.  This is a vision for restoring American economic strength at home, not increasing–or perhaps even maintaining–its commitments abroad.  This is called retrenchment.

PS:  I should have mentioned that Richard Haas calls it “restoration.”  That’s a more positive word, but the substance is the same.

 

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Governing well is the best revenge

I was asked to speak on a panel this afternoon (2-3 pm) about the evolution of democracy in the Balkans at the AID Democracy and Governance conference at George Washington University.  Here are my instructions from the organizers, and the notes I plan to use, though I confess I often depart from them:

Balkans Democracy

 GWU, 12 December 2011

 Organizers’ instructions:  We will be looking for your views on the common challenges and opportunities for democratization within your designated sub-region. What have been the obstacles or inhibitors of democratization?  To what extent does the ‘neighborhood’ itself influence possibilities for political liberalization?  What are realistic goals and/or scenarios for improvement on democracy and governance in the near to medium term? Are there region-specific approaches that should be considered? What might assistance efforts and democracy, human rights and governance programs do to address key challenges in this sub-region?

1.  Looked at in a 20-year time frame, democracy in the Balkans has to be judged as a success.

2.  In 1991, Slovenia and Croatia were at war, Bosnia was close, Serbia was a somewhat liberal autocracy, Montenegro and Kosovo were under Milosevic’s thumb, Macedonia was shaky, Albania was just emerging from a miserable dictatorship, Romania and Bulgaria were not much better off.

3.  Let me count the ways things have improved:  four of these countries are EU members or about to be, five are members of NATO (two more are qualified).

4.  Two use the Euro, at least two others have their own currency pegged to the Euro.

5.  Only Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia remain in a kind of uncertain transition phase, even if Albania, Romania and Bulgaria continue to have problems meeting European expectations.

6.  How did this happen?  The big obstacles to democracy disappeared:  Tudjman succumbed to natural causes, Milosevic to an election, Ceausescu to execution, the Bulgarian communist regime to a series of see-saw elections.

7.  The neighborhood was unquestionably a big influence:  Slovenia set out with determination to become an EU member, European and American assistance to Montenegro had a big influence inside Serbia, international intervention worked somewhat well in Bosnia and Kosovo, the Christmas warning and UNPREDEP gave Macedonia the breathing space it needed, Italian assistance saved Albania more than once.

8.  Above all:  the prospect of membership in NATO and the EU, while sometimes too weak to overcome domestic political strife, has proven a magnet that never entirely stops working, even if it at times seems inadequate.

9.  The remaining problems can be solved:  Bosnia needs constitutional reform, Serbia needs to acknowledge the loss of Kosovo, Kosovo needs treat its Serbs and other minorities well and reintegrate the north in a cooperative effort with Belgrade.

10.  There is no reason why all those who want to be NATO members should not be within five years.

11.  For the EU, it will take longer:  Montenegro in less than 5 years, Serbia and Albania in 5-10 years, Kosovo in 15 and Bosnia in 10 years from whenever it fixes its constitution.

12. The best assistance efforts can do now is to support civil society, in particular watchdog functions.

13.  However long it takes, whatever the obstacles and disappointments, governing well is the best revenge.

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Next week’s “peace picks”

1. Looking to the Future of Pakistan

With each passing day, Pakistan becomes an even more crucial player in world affairs. Home of the world’s second largest Muslim population, epicenter of the global jihad, location of perhaps the planet’s most dangerous borderlands, and armed with nuclear weapons, this South Asian nation will go a long way toward determining what the world looks like ten years from now.

Event Information

When

Monday, December 05, 2011
2:00 PM to 4:00 PM

Where

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map

Email: events@brookings.edu

Phone: 202.797.6105

Register Now

RELATED CONTENT

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Stephen P. Cohen
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February 16, 2004

Save to My PortfolioArmageddon in Islamabad

Bruce Riedel
The National Interest
July/August 2009

Save to My PortfolioThe Pakistan Time Bomb

Stephen P. Cohen
The Washington Post
July 3, 2007

More Related Content »

On December 5, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host the launch of The Future of Pakistan(Brookings Institution Press, 2011), which evaluates several scenarios for how the country will develop and evolve in the near future. A team of 17 experts from Pakistan, the United States, Europe and India, led by Brookings Senior Fellow Stephen P. Cohen, contributed chapters to the book, looking at pieces of the Pakistan puzzle. Several of the authors will join other Pakistan experts on two panels to examine the issues, relevant actors and their motivations, different outcomes they might produce, and what it all means for Pakistanis, Indians, the United States, and the entire world.After each panel, participants will take audience questions
Participants

2:00 PM — Opening Remarks

Stephen P. Cohen

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, 21st Century Defense Initiative

2:10 PM — Panel 1 – Paradoxical Pakistan

Moderator: Teresita C. Schaffer

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, 21st Century Defense Initiative

C. Christine Fair

Assistant Professor
Georgetown University

William Milam

Senior Scholar
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Shuja Nawaz

Director, South Asia Center
The Atlantic Council

Moeed Yusuf

South Asia Adviser
U.S. Institute of Peace

3:10 PM — Panel 2 – Pakistan: Where To?

Moderator: John R. Schmidt

Professorial Lecturer
The George Washington University

Pamela Constable

Staff Writer
The Washington Post

Bruce Riedel

Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy

Marvin Weinbaum

Scholar-in-Residence
Middle East Institute

Joshua T. White

Ph.D. Candidate
Johns Hopkins University, SAIS

2. Which Way Forward for Egypt?

Wednesday, December 7, 2011 – 12:15pm – 1:45pm

New America Foundation

1899 L Street NW Suite 400

Washington, DC 20036

Egypt’s first parliamentary elections since the ouster of Hosni Mubarak began on November 28th. The vote for the People’s Assembly will stretch over six weeks into January 2012.

An outpouring of enthusiastic voters has for the moment raised a note of optimism in Egypt. Yet following days of mass protest over the military’s continued rule, state violence, and deepening political and social polarization, it appears that Egypt’s transition will be long and rocky.

Join us for a conversation co-hosted by the Egyptian American Rule of Law Association about the election’s impact, transitional prospects, and implications for the wider MENA region and U.S. foreign policy.

A light lunch will be served.

Participants

Featured Speakers
Randa Fahmy
Vice President, Egyptian American Rule of Law Association

Nathan Brown
Professor, Political Science & International Affairs, George Washington University
Nonresident Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Michael Wahid Hanna
Fellow, The Century Foundation (will have just returned from Egypt)

Moderator
Leila Hilal
Co-Director, Middle East Task Force
New America Foundation

3. Islamist Terrorism and Democracy in the Middle East

A Book Launch for a USIP-funded study by Katerina Dalacoura

Wednesday, December 7 from 3:00-4:30

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Choate Room
1779 Massachusetts Avenue Northwest
Washington, DC 20036

The putative relationship between political repression and terrorism remains a matter of active debate in scholarly and policymaking circles.  Based on investigations into individual Islamist movements and the political environments in which they operate, this study assesses whether the emergence of Islamist terrorism is linked to the absence of political participation and repression.

The U.S. Institute of Peace is pleased to sponsor an in-depth discussion with Dalacoura centered on her recently-published work.

Funded by a grant from USIP, the volume draws on a series of case studies that include al Qa’eda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Groupe Islamique Armé, Gamaa Islamiyya, the Jordanian and Egyptian Muslim Brotherhoods, the Tunisian Nahda Movement, the Turkish Justice and Development Party, and Iranian Islamist movements.

“Drawing on her deep knowledge of Middle East politics, Dalacoura powerfully challenges past assumptions about a simple link between democratic deficits and the spread of Islamist terrorism,” said Thomas Carothers of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Conceptually rigorous, empirically rich, incisive and searching, this is a major study.”

Speakers

  • Daniel Brumberg, Chair
    U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Katerina Dalacoura, Author
    London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Dafna Rand
    Department of State
  • Eric Goldstein
    Human Rights Watch

4.  The Arab Spring:  Implications for US Policy and Interests

A publication launch and discussion featuring

Middle East Institute scholars:

Allen Keiswetter

Principal Coordinator and Author
with

Charles Dunne
Amb. Art Hughes

Amb. Molly Williamson

Thursday, December 8, 2011

12:00pm-1:30pm

SEIU Building, Room 2600

2nd Floor

1800 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036

*Please note that this event is not being held at MEI. An ID is required for entrance into the building.*

The Middle East Institute is proud to present its first ever policy paper produced exclusively by MEI scholars.  Entitled “The Arab Spring: Implications for US Policy and Interests,” it draws upon the broad expertise of 25 Middle East Institute scholars to examine the impact of this year’s popular uprisings in the Arab world on a variety of sectors and issues, including oil and energy, Iran, the peace process, and democratization and reform.  The paper is based on a series of roundtable discussions amongst MEI scholars in response to the historic and unprecedented changes taking place in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and beyond, and offers and offers insights and recommendations for US policymakers recalibrating America’s approach to the Middle East.  Please join us for the launch of this MEI featured publication and a discussion with principal coordinator and author Allen Keiswetter and contributors Amb. Molly Williamson, Amb. Art Hughes, and Charles Dunne.  You can read the full paper in advance of the event here.

TO RSVP for this event, please click here.
5.  Getting Rights…Right: How Companies are Implementing the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights

Thursday, December 8, 2011
9:00 AM – 4:30 PM

Grand Ballroom, 3rd Floor
Marvin Center, 800 21st Street, NW

To mark International Human Rights Day 2011, George Washington University, the UN Global Compact US Network, and the US Institute of Peace will host a one day conference on the Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. These principles, approved by the UN Human Rights Council in June, are designed to help business monitor its human rights impact. These guidelines clarified both the human rights responsibilities of states and firms and made them clear and actionable. Our speakers, representing business, civil society, the US Government, and academia, will focus on practical approaches to implementing the Guiding Principles (the GPs).

9:00-9:10 – Welcoming Remarks
Stephen C. Smith, Professor of Economics and International Affairs; Director, Institute for International Economic Policy, GW

Dave Berdish, Manager of Sustainable Business Development, Ford Motor Company

9:10-9:45 – “Why Firms Should Advance Human Rights: Manpower’s Approach”
David Arkless, President, Corporate and Government Affairs, ManpowerGroup

9:45-11:15 – Panel 1 – “Addressing the Problems of Slavery and Human Trafficking”
Brenda Schultz, Manager of Responsible Business, Carlson Hotels Worldwide Samir Goswami, Director of Corporate Responsibility, Rule of Law, Lexis Nexis

Jean Baderscheider, Vice President, Global Procurement, Exxon Mobil

Indika Samarawickreme, Executive Director, Free the Slaves

Moderator:
Pamela Passman, President and CEO, CREATe

11:15-11:30 – Coffee Break

11:30-1:00 – Panel 2 – “How Business Should Operate in Conflict Zones”
Bennett Freeman, Senior Vice President for Social research and Policy, Calvert Group

Charlotte Wolff, Corporate Responsibility Manager, Arcellor Mittal

Olav Ljosne, Regional Director of Communications, Africa, Shell Corporation

Moderator:
Raymond Gilpin, Director, Center for Sustainable Economies, U.S. Institute of Peace

1:00-2:15 – Luncheon Keynote
Ursula Wynhoven, General Counsel, UN Global Compact

Gerald Pachoud, Senior Advisor to the Assistant Secretary General, UN and former Senior Advisor, Special Representative on Business and Human Rights

2:15-3:45 – Panel 3: General Implementation of the Guiding Principles Is it difficult to get buy in? Is it costly? What recommendations or roadblocks have you found?
Mark Nordstrom, Senior Labor & Employment Counsel, General Electric

Dave Berdish, Manager of Sustainable Business

Brenda Erskine, Director of Stakeholder and Community Relationships, Suncor

Meg Roggensack, Senior Advisor for Business and Human Rights, Human Rights First

Moderator:
Susan Aaronson, Associate Research Professor of International Affairs, GW

3:45-4:30 – General Discussion: What should policymakers do to encourage adoption of the GPs?

RSVP at: http://tiny.cc/guidingprinciples

Sponsored by Institute for International Economic Policy, U.S. Institute for Peace, U.N. Global Compact, and the U.S. Network

6.  The Valley’s Edge: A Year with the Pashtuns in the Heartland of the Taliban

Start: Friday, December 9, 2011 4:30 PM
End:   Friday, December 9, 2011 6:00
You are cordially invited to a book lecture with author Daniel R. Green for his new book
The Valley’s Edge: A Year with the Pashtuns in the Heartland of the Taliban Friday, December 9
4:30 PMThe Institute of World Politics
1521 16th Street NW
Washington, DC 20036
Please RSVP to kbridges@iwp.edu.This event is sponsored by IWP’s Center for Culture and Security.

About the author

Daniel R. Green is a Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is pursuing a PhD in political science at the George Washington University. For his work in Afghanistan in 2005-2006, he received the U.S. Department of State’s Superior Honor Award, the U.S. Army’s Superior Civilian Honor Award, and a personal letter of commendation from then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Peter Pace. He has also received the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Exceptional Public Service Award and in 2007 served with the U.S. military in Fallujah, Iraq. He lives in Washington, D.C.

About the book

In this gripping, firsthand account, Daniel Green tells the story of U.S. efforts to oust the Taliban insurgency from the desolate southern Afghan province of Uruzgan. Nestled between the Hindu Kush mountains and the sprawling wasteland of the Margow and Khash Deserts, Uruzgan is a microcosm of U.S. efforts to prevent Afghanistan from falling to the Taliban insurgency and Islamic radicalism.

Green, who served in Uruzgan from 2005 to 2006 as a U.S. Department of State political adviser to a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), reveals how unrealistic expectations, a superficial understanding of the Afghans, and a lack of resources contributed to the Taliban’s resurgence in the area. He discusses the PRT’s good-governance efforts, its reconstruction and development projects, the violence of the insurgency, and the PRT’s attempts to manage its complex relationship with the local warlord cum governor of the province.

Upon returning to Afghanistan in 2009 with the U.S. military and while working at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul until 2010, Green discovered that although many improvements had been made since he had last served in the country, the problems he had experienced in Uruzgan continued despite the transition from the Bush administration to the Obama administration.

 

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