Tag: Economy
Stevenson’s army, October 29
DNI went beyond agreed language in saying Iranian election interference was to damage Trump.
Do the president and Justice Kavanaugh realize that their election day ballot deadline could prevent military ballots from being counted?
Insider Trump critic, “Anonymous,” has outed himself.
WSJ says US states face depression-level revenue crisis.
WaPo say administration has regularly attacked the civil service.
SAIS Prof Ed Joseph says Trump “lost the Balkans”
Breaking Defense says Congress has evaded earmark ban with Buy American provisions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Any functioning adult would be better
We can never know exactly what Hillary Clinton would have done had she won 3.5 years ago, but let us count the ways the United States could have been better off if just about any normal functioning adult–Republican or Democratic–had become president:
- Well over 150,000 Americans would not have succumbed to Covid19, the epidemic would have receded faster, the economy would have reopened months faster and far safer, the US would be leading the world’s economic recovery instead of dragging it down, and the US debt would be trillions less.
- Millions of now unemployed people would have jobs, and no one would risk losing the health insurance and coverage for preexisting conditions available under Obamacare.
- The Paris Climate Accord would be more effective in limiting greenhouse gases that have contributed to this summer’s record number and intensity of storms in the Atlantic and the unprecedented wildfires in California, causing many billions of dollars of losses.
- The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership might have been concluded, with real advantages for US producers rather than the marginal replacement for NAFTA and the trade war with China that has damaged US agriculture, manufacturers, and consumers.
- Iran would still be a year from having enough fissile material to make a nuclear weapon and negotiation of the follow-on to the nuclear deal would be in progress, including on missiles and regional issues.
- The Voting Rights Act might have been revived in response to the Black Lives Matter protests, along with legislation curbing police abuse, and there would be no discussion of imaginary anarchy in American cities or use of the military against peaceful protests.
- The US would still have the confidence and support of its European allies and China would still be observing the agreement it reached with the Obama administration on commercial hacking.
- Russia would be showing some respect instead of owning the President of the United States, whom it only needs to quote to make its points.
- There would still be hope for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine and a possibility of curbing the North Korean nuclear program, which has instead inaugurated a missile possibly capable of hitting the US with multiple nuclear warheads.
Of course lots of things would not likely be different: we might still be outside the Trans Pacific Partnership looking in, Maduro might still be president of Argentina, Syria, Yemen, and Libya would still be catastrophic, and the Saudi Crown Prince might still have ordered the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, though MbS would not have been shielded from accountability by the US President.
The United States would be in a far stronger position under any functioning adult, Democratic or Republican, than it is under the false flag of “Make America Great Again.” For anyone interested in foreign policy, that is all you really need to know while filling out your ballot at home and popping it into the mail, provided the US Postal Service doesn’t follow President Trump’s instructions to ensure it doesn’t arrive on time.
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Peace Picks | July 13 – July 17, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- COVID-19 in the Middle East: An Opportunity to Improve Public Health? | July 13, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed fault lines in public health systems in the Middle East, where public health institutions vary widely. In Gulf states, citizens receive high quality health care, but the same is not true of foreign worker populations. Middle income countries in the region offer good health services to those who can afford them, while those who cannot have less or no access. In countries like Yemen and in Syria’s worn torn towns, nothing resembling a functioning health system, public or private, exists. The difficulty of supplying health services to refugees and displaced persons presents yet more difficulties. All this is not new, but the COVID crisis has afforded an opportunity to examine how access to health care plays out in a crisis. More importantly, the crisis can help guide domestic policymakers and international partners toward immediate and longer-term actions to improve public health delivery and prepare for the next crisis.
The Rafik Hariri Center and the United Nations Development Program’s Regional Bureau for Arab States are pleased to co-host a virtual discussion with experts who will not only discuss why the response to the pandemic has met with varying degrees of success, but will also address how policymakers and other stakeholders can better confront public health challenges of all kinds.
Speakers:
Dr. Adel Abdellatif: Deputy Regional Director, Regional Bureau for Arab States, United Nations Development Program
Dr. Lina AbiRafeh: Executive Director, Arab Institute for Women
Dr. Ali Mokdad: Director of Middle Eastern Initiatives and Professor of Global Health, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington - The United States, Russia, and China in the Time of Pandemic | July 13, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The United States’ unipolar moment in the world—if it ever truly existed—is long gone. Instead the United States confronts a rising China and resentful Russia, both determined to check, if not roll back, U.S. influence regionally and globally. The pandemic will reinforce these trends and likely usher in a period of even greater competition and tension.
How should the United States respond to overt and covert challenges from Moscow and Beijing? And how important is growing strategic China-Russia cooperation on economic and security in this equation? Competition and tension seem all but inevitable, pushed forward by the domestic drivers of foreign policy. But are there prospects for détente or even meaningful episodic cooperation between the United States, China, and Russia on the issues that divide them?
Speakers:
Evan A Feigenbaum: Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Eugene Rumer: Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment
Susan Thornton: Senior Fellow, Yale Law School
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment - COVID-19’s Economic Impact on Women | July 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
COVID-19 is a crisis like no other – and it is having a calamitous effect on women’s economic well-being. Please join the Atlantic Council for a conversation on how the coronavirus is disproportionately impacting women’s earning and income and worsening economic inequality around the world. Our experts will look at how COVID-19 is devastating women’s employment and entrepreneurship, as well exacerbating workplace and household challenges such as education, wage gaps, informality, childcare and domestic violence. During the panel the experts will discuss how policy options or business practices could mitigate these adverse consequences and promote greater gender equality as nations recover and rebuild.
Speakers:
Gina E. Wood (Welcoming Remarks): Vice President, Foundational & Institutional Giving, Atlantic Council
Raj Kumar (Moderator): President & Editor-in-Chief, Devex
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Nicole Goldin: Senior Fellow, Global Business & Economics PRogram, Atlantic Council
Henriette Kolb: Head, Gender Secretariat, International Finance Corporation, World Bank - Status and Priorities for Lebanon’s Political Transition | July 14, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon is on the brink of collapse due to its domestic economic and political crises, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Another failed state in the Middle East would negatively impact strategic US interests. Lebanon requires a thorough reorientation towards stability and renewed socio-economic sustainability, which entails fundamental domestic reforms and targeted international support led by the US. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) are pleased to co-host the public launch of a joint policy paper, Recommendations for a Sustainable Bilateral Relationship.
What are the strategic interests the US has in Lebanon’s stability, and how can the US support Lebanese prosperity? Is the Lebanese government’s new financial recovery plan sufficient for the US to initiate support for the government? In what ways can the US best support a strong future for Lebanon?
Speakers:
Ambassador Edward Gabriel (Co-Moderator): President & CEO, American Task Force for Lebanon
Paul Salem (Co-Moderator): President, Middle East Institute
Jean AbiNader: Policy Director, American Task Force for Lebanon
Congressman Darin LaHood: U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’ 18th District
Paul Raphael: Founding Chair, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East & Africa, United States Institute of Peace - Election Integrity & Security in the Era of COVID-19 | July 17, 2020 | 2:00 – 4:15 PM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The threats that disinformation and foreign interference in U.S. elections pose are not new phenomena. In 2016, Russian interference exposed critical vulnerabilities in the United States’ digital election infrastructure, and its information operations sowed political divisions across America. Now, modifications to democratic processes due to the coronavirus pandemic make the task of safeguarding the integrity and security of the 2020 presidential election even more crucial.
How will inevitable adjustments to voting practices, due to COVID-19, affect the security of U.S. elections? What measures should we pursue to dissuade our adversaries from attempting to interfere? Are we adequately prepared to counter new tactics, techniques, and procedures they might employ? And what can the federal government do to ensure that every state and county has the means to conduct a fair and secure election?
Speakers:
Keynote
Christopher C. Krebs: Director, Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Panel 1: Safeguarding Election Security
Fiona Hill (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution
David Becker: Executive Director, Center for Election Innovation & Research, Brookings Institution
Mark Harvey: Former Special Assistant to the President & Senior Director for Resilience Policy, National Security Council
Susan Hennessey: Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Panel 2: Adapting to New Disinformation Tactics
Chris Meserole (Moderator): Deputy Director, Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, Brookings Institution
David Agranovich: Global Threat Disruption Lead, Facebook
Alina Polyakova: President & CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, Brookings Institution
Laura Rosenberger: Senior Fellow & Director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Gavin Wilde: Senior Analyst, Department of Defense
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CCP’s challenges in COVID-19
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to expand its influence around the world. On April 17, Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on “Meeting the Challenge of the Chinese Communist Party During and After COVID-19.” The discussion featured four speakers:
Eric Brown: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Patrick Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair and Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Lewis Libby: Senior Vice President, Hudson Institute, moderated
Current Context
Lee said that the CCP is promoting its decisive and effective response in contrast to America’s chaotic efforts. The masks, ventilators, and doctors that China has sent around the world are meant to show that China is saving the world, while democracy in the US is floundering. He believes that China will return to a powerful position because of its strong national capabilities.
One of the challenges that China is encountering, however, is the lockdown in neighboring states, which prevents them from absorbing China’s excess supplies. In the long term, China needs continued access to external markets, capital, and innovation. Lee points out that Europe is considering toughening its industrial polices against China.
Brown indicated that the US thought cooperation with China throughout the 1990s would let the CCP relinquish some control. The CCP, however, was not prepared for further liberalization. After the 2008 financial crisis, the party re-asserted more control over economic, political, and ideological discussions. President Xi attempted to turn China against the US, causing deterioration in US-China relations and leading to limited market access.
Adding that the pandemic could trigger a change in CCP tactics because the criticism of the one-party system has deepened, Brown noted that people have been thinking about a fundamental change in the CCP regime. The regime, hence, could redouble its police state buildup and become more aggressive.
Is China winning?
Cronin believes that the pandemic crisis should neither lead us to count America out, nor assume China’s peaceful rise, for three reasons:
- US retrenchment from the Pacific is not irreparable. It will, however, accelerate the disentanglement of US supply chains and high-tech innovation sources. Meanwhile, China is not filling the gap due to its internal troubles and its poor track record of trust and transparency.
- The CCP is adaptable and agile, characteristics the US has underestimated. The Covid-19 crisis, nevertheless, could be a Chernobyl moment for Xi’s leadership.
- The US and its allies are in a competition with China. Their strategies can include both preventing the rise of the hegemon and finding cooperation based on reciprocity in contrast to China’s narratives.
What can the US do?
Lee and Brown both agreed that the US can either restrict China’s access to the international market or block its transactions in US dollars. The US also needs to coordinate with Europe. Additionally, American universities should restrict Chinese students’ participation in joint projects with strategic implications. Brown added that the pandemic forces US political leaders to face the choice between national security and international financial markets. The best arrangement should cover both national security concerns and economic concerns.
Here’s the video for this panel discussion:
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Stevenson’s army, April 25
– Here in the United States the picture is historically grim.
– But don’t forget the millions abroad who depend on remittances.
-It doesn’t help when cronyism matters so much.
-GOP operatives say go after China.
-Meanwhile, CNAS has an excellent analysis of comparative US & Chinese economic tools and vulnerabilities. I’ve never seen anything as clear and helpful as the charts on pp 20-21 and 33-34.
Take care; it’s not just the Social Security crowd in danger.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks| April 18- April 25
Public Health Surveillance, Al bias, and Risks to Privacy in the Fight against COVID-19 | April 21, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
To help fight COVID-19, U.S. tech companies have recently announced efforts to leverage public health surveillance, including tracking the spread of the coronavirus using Bluetooth-enabled devices. China, South Korea, and Israel are already engaged in some form of citizen tracking to mitigate and reduce their infection rates. Artificial intelligence (AI) and other digital tools have the capability to capture biometrics, location data, and other indicators of infection. Given these existing and potential uses of AI, what are the privacy implications for the collection of such health data? Which groups are at risk of unintended and potentially discriminatory outcomes? How transparent will these systems be?
Speakers:
Alex Engler: Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Michelle Richardson: Director, Privacy and Data Project, Center for Democracy and Technology
Nicol Turner Lee (Moderator): Fellow, Governance Studies, Center for Technology Innovation
LGBTQ+ Movements in the Middle East: Navigating Political Unrest and Global Pandemic | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Acceptance of the LGBTQ+ community is low
across the Middle East, and LGBTQ+ individuals face a number of unique
challenges due to their identity. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to
host a virtual panel which will seek to explore the ways in which these
communities have organized in the Middle East in order to raise visibility and
advocate for greater rights, and how these efforts are under attack across the
region. Panelists will discuss the impacts that governments, laws, and society
have on the lives of LGBTQ+ people, and the ways in which grassroots
organizations and initiatives strive to support this community in the face of
backlash and the challenges of navigating the COVID-19 pandemic.
What are the major challenges LGBTQ+ people face in the
Middle East? In what ways have LGBTQ+ rights been integrated into broader
social and political movements in countries like Lebanon and Iraq? How
has COVID-19 impacted important advocacy work, and how are activists and
organizations adapting to continue to protect these communities? Is there any
hope for future protection of LGBTQ+ people in the wake of regional and global
crises?
Speakers:
Amir Ashour: Founder and executive director, IraQueer
Roula Seghaier: Executive Member, Masaha: Accessible Feminist Knowledge
Rasha Younes: Researcher, LGBT rights program, Human Rights Watch
Antoun Issa (Moderator): Non-resident scholar, MEI
The Oil Market and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the Arab World | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 and the plunging oil prices on the economic outlook in the Arab world, including how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting economies in the region in the short and long-term, the implications of the recent price wars on Gulf economies, and the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting.
Speakers:
Garbis Iradian: Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, Institution of International Finance
Bessma Momani: Interim Assistant Vice-President of International Relations and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
The Path to Intra-Afghan Talks | April 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Since the signing of the landmark U.S.-Taliban agreement on February 29, efforts to reach the next phase in the Afghanistan peace process have faced numerous obstacles, both old and new. Comprehensive Intra-Afghan negotiations, originally planned to begin within 10 days of the U.S.-Taliban agreement, have yet to occur—delayed by disagreements over the presidential election results, prisoner releases, and now the spread of coronavirus in Afghanistan and the region. One hopeful sign, however, was the announcement of a politically and ethnically inclusive negotiation team to represent the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in talks with the Taliban.
The 21-member delegation will be led by former Minister Masoom Stanekzai and includes five women. Now that a team has been formed, negotiators will need to plan their strategy for the intra-Afghan talks and develop negotiating positions on key substantive issues—including political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and the future of human rights protections and democracy in Afghanistan.
Speakers:
Masoom Stanekzai: Head of the Afghan Government Negotiation Team; former Chief of the National Directorate of Security
Habiba Sarabi: Afghan Government Negotiation Team Member; Deputy Chair, Afghanistan High Peace Council
Alexander Thier: Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Founder of Triple Helix Consulting
Ambassador Richard Olson (Moderator): Senior Advisor, USIP; former US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Andrew Wilder (Welcoming remarks): Vice President, Asia Center, USIP
COVID-19: Implications for peace and security in the Middle East | April 22, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
The Brookings Doha Center is pleased to invite you to a webinar discussion on the implications of Covid-19 for regional peace and security. What are the short and long-term implications of the pandemic for regional security? How can regional and international powers mitigate the fallout from the pandemic? Will the crisis expand and intensify existing conflicts or could it become a rallying call for conflict resolution? How can vulnerable communities be protected? These questions, and others, will be addressed by a distinguished panel of experts.
Speakers:
Tanya Gilly-Khailany: Director, SEED
Frederic Wehrey: Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Galip Dalay: Nonresident Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Ranj Alaaldin (Moderator): Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Pakistan’s Coronavirus Crisis: Impact and Solutions | April 23, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In addition to the severe human cost, the COVID-19 crisis has forced Pakistan’s already suffering economy to a grinding halt. Social distancing policies, necessary to stop the spread of the virus, have sent the global economy reeling, paralyzed the informal economy, and left Pakistan’s most vulnerable without income and sustenance. Meanwhile, despite a $7.5 billion relief package, both central and provincial governments have struggled to respond as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise daily. As the situation stands, much more will be needed for Pakistan to effectively address the crisis.
Speakers:
Cyril Almeida: Visiting Senior Expert, USIP
Khurram Hussain: Business Editor, Dawn Newspaper
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Deputy Director, South Asia, Stimson Center
Uzair Younus: Nonresident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Tamanna Salikuddin (Moderator): Director, South Asia, USIP
Economic Shocks of COVID-19: What Next for the Caspian Basin and South Caucasus? | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The economic toll of COVID-19 around the world has been significant and the impact of this crisis will reverberate for the next few years. Iran is among the hardest hit economies but the fallout is also already felt among Iran’s immediate neighboring states, including the countries of South Caucasus and the Caspian Basin. With US sanctions severely limiting its international trade, Tehran has in recent years banked on trade with immediate neighbors as a stopgap remedy to its economic needs. This policy of prioritizing trade and other economic ties with immediate neighbors is now under seven more pressure due to COVID-19. While Iran is expected to experience a sharp economic contraction in 2020, the economic growth forecasts have also been cut in neighboring Caucasus states, requiring swift and decisive action from leaders and international partners.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) will bring together a panel of experts to explore the economic impacts of COVID-19 on Iran, the South Caucasus and the question of regional economic cooperation and integration. Besides looking at what has driven Iran’s neighborhood policy in recent years, and how it is in danger of crumbling due to COVID-19 restrictions, the panel will focus on the specific case of the energy sector where regional integration was moving ahead albeit slowly. Meanwhile, the role played by third-parties – including Russia and the US – will also be tackled by the panelists as they reflect on Iran-South Caucasus economic connections.
Speakers:
Aleksi Aleksishvili: Chairman and CEO, Policy and Management Consulting Group
Rauf Mammadov: Resident scholar on energy policy, MEI
Suzanne Maloney: Interim vice president and director, Foreign Policy program, Brookings Institution
The Middle East on Lockdown: The Impact of COVID-19 on Regional Economies | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Wilson Center | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has driven most of the world to shut borders, close businesses, and impose lockdowns on citizen movement to mitigate the spread of the novel virus. In the Middle East and North Africa, many countries shuttered businesses and banned public gatherings accompanied by strict curfews enforced by police or national militaries. Oil and Gas producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE injected billions into their economies to ease the economic fallout. However, resource-scarce countries already suffering from economic fragility also took measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises which make up the backbone of their private sectors. With the world heading into a deep recession, the economic future of the region is indeed dire. This will likely reignite political tensions that are temporarily subdued by the lockdown and will drive a renew wave of unrest across the region.
Speakers:
David Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Middle East Specialist and Former Washington Post Correspondent
Ibrahim Saif: CEO of Jordan Strategy Forum
Bessma Momani: Assistant Vice President of International Relations at University of Waterloo
Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives
A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East? | April 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Join THO on Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 11AM EST for a webinar on “A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East?“.
Speakers:
William F. Wechsler: Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Benjamin H. Friedman: Senior Fellow and Defense Scholar, Defense Priorities Lecturer, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amb. Selcuk Unal: Director General for Syria, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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