Tag: Economy
Stevenson’s army, March 25
CNN says he has been preparing for today’s [1315] news conference the way most presidents have done — reading briefing materials and practicing some answers.
He also has been using Sen. Coons as a “shadow secretary of state.“
And he has been woefully delayed in making national security nominations.
China has been sanctioning US allies.
Vox has background on the debt ceiling, which looms over US on August 1.
NSA warned of Soviet activities in Cuba months before 1962 missile crisis.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | March 21 – March 25, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Defense Project Series: Ending the War in Afghanistan- a discussion with counter-terror expert David Kilcullen | March 22, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Dave Kilcullen: Lieutenant Colonel, Australian Army Reserves
Dave Kilcullen, strategist/scholar/author, discusses the war in Afghanistan, the Taliban and ISIS, and how the United States and its allies might help Afghanistan forge a future of hope and promise vice a return to the dark days of the 1990s. With the agreed deadline for American withdrawal from Afghanistan looming on 1 May and Taliban attacks ramping up, President Biden is faced with a difficult policy decision to stay in the war or leave. Join Bill Rapp as he moderates this important discussion with the famed counter-terror expert.
2. Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq | March 22, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Center | Register Here
Speakers
Amb. Feisal Al-Istrabadi: Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East
Dr. Abbas Kadhim: Director, Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Dr. Oula Kadhum: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Birmingham
Dr. Marsin Alshamary (moderator): Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The Brookings Institute
The Atlantic Council hosts a discussion surrounding the upcoming report, Iraqi Diaspora Mobilization and the Future Development of Iraq. Authored by Dr. Oula Kadhum, postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Birmingham, the paper explores Iraqi diaspora mobilization before and after the 2003 invasion and fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein, looking at ways in which members of the diaspora have sought to help in the rebuilding of their country of origin, at both the elite and grassroots levels, as well as investigating changes over time. The discussion will touch on the paper’s key recommendations, considering the obstacles that have hindered diaspora mobilization, beyond the ethno-sectarian system.
3. The Politics of Mass Violence in the Middle East | March 22, 2021 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Laura Robson: Professor of History, Penn State University
Laila Parsons: McGill University
Ussama Makdisi: Rice University
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator): Director, History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen (moderator): Professor of History, The George Washington University
4. In a Consequential Year for Iraq, What’s Next? | March 23, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Lise Grande: President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Matthew Tueller: Ambassador of the United States to Iraq
Ambassador Fareed Yasseen: Ambassador of Iraq to the United States
Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman: Kurdistan Regional Government Representative to the United States
Sarhang Hamasaeed (moderator): Director, Middle East Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
As Iraq marks the 18th anniversary of the 2003 U.S.-led war that set in motion consequential changes, the country is eyeing what a Biden administration might bring while the country prepares for national elections in October. Meanwhile, His Holiness Pope Francis made a historic visit to Iraq earlier this month and injected much needed messages of hope, coexistence, and peace into an environment dominated by frustrations with the pandemic and its financial consequences, public grievances with governance, continued U.S.-Iran tensions and attacks on coalition forces, and the ongoing threat of ISIS. Join USIP for a discussion of key developments in Iraq and the outlook for U.S.-Iraq relations under the Biden administration. The panel will share their insights on the Pope’s first-ever visit to Iraq, examine the country’s current challenges, and explore areas where policymakers and the international community can support Iraq.
5. Women’s gains in Afghanistan: Leadership and peace | March 23, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Minister Hasina Safi: Acting Minister for Women’s Affairs, Government of Afghanistan
Fatima Gailani: Member, Afghan Negotiating Team
Lt. Colonel Natalie Trogus: Former Advisor, Afghan Ministry of Defense
Ambassador Paula Dobriansky (moderator): Vice Chair, Scowcroft Center for Strategy & Security, Atlantic Council
For Afghanistan to rebuild and for peace to be sustainable, the country will require a diversity of ideas, experiences, leadership, and action — from all of its people — to move forward. Such progress is impossible without the dedicated, long-term involvement of women, which allows for shifts in both long-held beliefs and practices, including those of the Taliban. This will ultimately allow peace to be not only enduring, but create a shared vision of Afghanistan’s future that puts Afghan women at the center. Join the Atlantic Council for a conversation on how Afghan women and their US partners have worked to improve women’s leadership opportunities in Afghanistan, what these improvements mean for Afghan women, and the critical role women play in Afghanistan’s aspirations for long-term peace.
6. Africa’s Global Reset: Foreign Relations in a Post-Pandemic Era | March 23, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Speakers
Andrew Alli: Partner and Group CEO, SouthBridge; former CEO of Africa Finance Corporation
Akunna Cook: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Bogolo Kenewendo: Former Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry of Botswana; Non-Resident Fellow, Center for Global Development
Ambassador Koji Yonetani: Assistant Minister for African Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan
Judd Devermont (moderator): Director, Africa Program
The Covid-19 pandemic is dramatically changing relationships between African governments and external partners, creating opportunities for a reset in relations and a recommitment to strategic issues. Longstanding grievances stemming from African countries’ status in international affairs, racism against their citizens abroad, and the zero-sum premise of global power competition have reached a boiling point. The pandemic is prompting regional governments to demand more equitable vaccine distribution, debt relief, and targeted investment in key economic sectors. It’s time to pause and identify the trends reshaping the region as well as implications for African governments and their foreign partners. Join the CSIS Africa Program on March 23, 2021, for a virtual livestream event examining the state of Africa’s foreign ties and key strategic issues to watch for, including Covid-19 recovery, debt relief, anti-discrimination, democratization, and climate change.
7. Anti-Coercion Instrument: How can Europe best protect itself from economic coercion? | March 23, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Colin Brown: Head of Unit, Legal Affairs/Dispute settlement (trade, sustainable development and investment), European Commission
Sven Simon: MEP; Member of International Trade Committee, European Parliament
Marie-Pierre Vedrenne: MEP; Vice-Chair of International Trade Committee, European Parliament
Jonathan Hackenbroich (moderator): Head of Task Force for Strengthening Europe against Economic Coercion, ECFR
The European Council on Foreign Relations is delighted to invite you to our webinar on how Europe can strengthen itself against economic coercion. Powerful countries revert to economic blackmail to change European foreign, economic, or financial policy. China has threatened Germany and Sweden with dire economic consequences over excluding Huawei from their 5G networks. Russia is looking into expanding its sanction toolkit. Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan called for boycotting French products over a speech by Emmanuel Macron. Under Donald Trump, the US used various measures of economic coercion, even directly against allies. Now, Europe needs to rebuild strong transatlantic relations especially around economic statecraft.
8. Unmasking Influence Operators: What Are Best Practices for Attribution? | March 25, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Marianna Spring: Disinformation and social media reporter, BBC
Elise Thomas: OSINT analyst, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue
Emerson T. Brooking: Resident senior fellow, Digital Forensic Lab, Atlantic Council
Olgo Belogolova: Policy manager for influence operations, Facebook
A growing community of researchers are investigating influence operations, but research standards for conducting investigations are not widely shared. This event will explore one of the thorniest investigative challenges – identifying who is behind an influence operation.
9. Defending democracy against its adversaries | March 26, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Leader of Democratic Belarus
Bob Dean: Senior research fellow, Clingendael Institute
Kara McDonald: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, US Department of State
Gerard Steeghs: Director, Multilateral Organizations and Human Rights, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of the Netherlands
Thomas Wright: Director, Center on the US and Europe, Brookings Institution
Constanze Stellenmüller (moderator): Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution
Liberal democracy — representation, the rule of law, and human rights — is the foundation of the trans-Atlantic alliance and a rules-based international order. The Biden administration has placed democracy at the heart of its policy agenda; in the words of its March 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, “Democracy is essential to meeting all the challenges of our changing world.” Yet democracy is under threat worldwide from populists and rising authoritarian powers. Still, civil societies continue to fight for their rights. In Belarus, a pro-democracy movement led by teacher-turned-presidential-candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is bravely protesting the fraudulent August 2020 election, despite violent repression by the government of Alexander Lukashenko. Brookings will host Tsikhanouskaya for a keynote address that examines democracy and human rights in Belarus.
10. ‘The Last Shah’: A book event with Ray Takeyh | March 26, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
Speakers
Ray Takeyh: Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Eric Edelman: Counselor, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Kenneth M. Pollack: Resident Scholar, AEI
Colin Dueck (moderator): Visiting Scholar, AEI
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Privilege needs to recognize itself and compensate
America marked the one-year anniversary of the COVID-19 epidemic last week. It was part memorial to the more than 500,000 who have died due to the negligence, ignorance, and egotism of President Trump. It was also part celebration of the rapid ramping up of vaccinations and the prospect of a return to normality by sometime in the late summer or early fall. President Biden has already demonstrated an ability to get good things done with a minimum of fuss, including a $1.9 trillion package intended not only to confront the virus but also to revive the economy.
It may be too much, but better that than too little. It will take some time to move some of that quantity of money through our various bureaucracies and into productive hands. But the initial $1400 payments to taxpayers went out already this weekend and the $300/week plus up of unemployment insurance should move fast too, but a lot of the rest cannot and should not be done quickly. It will require applications from businesses and states. Transparency and accountability will be important to ensuring that it reaches the correct destinations. Nothing could hurt the image of the Democrats-only stimulus more than a few boondoggles at taxpayer expense.
While we wait for the recovery, reflection on the past year is in order. The US failed miserably to stop COVID-19 early, which would have required a serious commitment to testing and contact tracing that the President was incapable of. Trump deserves credit for moving quickly to fund multiple vaccine projects, three of which have already come to arms. He was completely inept however at encouraging mitigation measures (masks, social distancing) and developing a serious plan for administering vaccine. That happened only after Biden took over. His administration has demonstrated impressive capability to increase production and distribution, down to the last mile and even inch.
That said, distribution of the vaccine is following the inverse of distribution of the disease, which has affected black and brown people disproportionately. They have contracted COVID-19 and died from it more than whites, but they are still not getting their proportionate share of vaccinations. There could be no clearer indication of how deeply ingrained in our institutions prejudice is. Georgia is managing to get vaccine to rural white communities while Atlanta black neighborhoods are short on supply. Sounds a bit like the distribution of polling places. Tell me there is no systemic discrimination.
A lot of people like me have enjoyed relatively few deprivations from the epidemic. I’ve been able to continue my usual reading, writing, and teaching from home. It’s not the same as enjoying the stimulation of students and colleagues downtown, but it isn’t all that far off. My wife and I have been walking 6-7 miles per day and have lost a few pounds. Groceries all get delivered. I’ve been in a store no more than half a dozen times in the past year, but I lack for nothing. Brown and black people who need the work bring me everything my bank account can afford.
It is an enormous privilege to quarantine as we have, without giving up professional life or income. All of us who have done it owe those who made it possible a big debt. I’d have thought a minimum wage of $15/hour wouldn’t be too much to pay, but our well-heeled Congress thought differently. I have no doubt but that the support to families with children contained in the latest stimulus package is likewise justified. The Republicans in Congress objected to that too, concerned it might enable some single mothers with four kids to stay home to do the vital work of raising kids rather than work.
Right now our biggest problem is climbing out of the recession and ensuring the benefits aren’t reserved for the relatively rich white people, of which I happen to be one. Privilege needs to recognize itself and compensate. That goes for America as a whole too. As we exit this tunnel, we need to help the rest of the world get out of it too.
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Stevenson’s army, March 9
– NYT tells more about the CIA base in Niger.
– Afghan broadcaster says government angry about proposed peace deal, has text here.
– Dan Drezner grades Biden’s NSS, is critical of foreign economic policy statements.
– New Yorker reports views of CJCS General Milley.
– TNSR reports poll of military, finds support for exceptionalism.
– Bit of history: Atlantic tells how House did away with its filibuster.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 3
– The Hill says FBI Director Wray hinted at forthcoming sanctions for the Solar Winds hack, saying they would be joint, public-private, and sequenced.
-The administration and EU announced sanctions on Russia in the Navalny case.
-David Ignatius is unhappy with the Khashoggi sanctions. The administration’s fallback position is planned sanctions against people who punish journalists or dissidents.
– David Von Drehle says Biden should accept defeat in Afghanistan and pull out.
– Dan Drezner says economic statecraft is changing.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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One more problem in Lebanon, but now may not be the time to solve it
Samin Mirfakhrai, a first-year Conflict Management student at SAIS, writes:
The Carnegie Middle East Center February 19 held a discussion of inequality in Lebanon. Panelists were:
- Lydia Assouad, El-Erian Fellow, Carnegie Middle East Center; PhD Candidate, Paris School of Economics
- Haneen Sayed, Human Development Specialist, World Bank Group
- Toufic Gaspard, Former Senior Economic Advisor to the Lebanese Minister of Finance; Advisor, IMF
- Gregg Carlstrom as moderator, Middle East Correspondent, The Economist
Key Points
Income and wealth inequality have been a cornerstone of the Lebanese economy for decades; the existing disparity has grown more extreme since 2005. The political elite have long upheld a system rooted in clientelist institutions and policies. The political culture has exacerbated economic inequalities to benefit the ruling elite and forego creating opportunities in upward mobility for the middle and lower classes.
The state of the political economy is dire. Without the proper reforms, financial collapse is imminent. Within the scope of fiscal policy, implementing a general and progressive income tax, increasing top marginal tax rates, and instituting an annual wealth tax are recommended to increase the national revenue.
Economic reform must be coupled with political form. Long-term programs that increase human development, continue economic subsidies, and offer cash assistance can lower inequality rates, yet the financing needed for such measures is unavailable. Panelists agree that real change cannot be achieved without political reform.
Figures
The richest 10 percent of the population hold approximately 70 percent of total wealth in the country.
Extreme poverty in Lebanon has nearly doubled since 2012.
The lower poverty line, classified as anyone who cannot provide their daily caloric needs, is at 22 percent.
The Human Capital Index in 2018 was 0.52, meaning a child born in Lebanon can expect to be 52 percent as productive as he/she could be upon reaching the age of 18.
Summary
This event was organized around Lydia Assouad’s research on economic equality in Lebanon. Her recent paper for the Carnegie Middle East Center entitled “Lebanon’s Political Economy: From Predatory to Self-Devouring” focuses on assessing income and wealth inequality at the apex of several converging crises. Income inequality has been a ubiquitous aspect of Lebanon’s socioeconomic sphere since the state was formally established in 1943. While it isrecognized that inequality has persisted since the decades before Lebanon’s civil war erupted in 1975, data is lacking.
Inequality has grown more severe as the country faces various crises that have combined to beget a serious humanitarian crisis. In 2019, a massive protest movement responded to decades of policies that have sustained and exacerbated levels of economic inequality that are considered some of the highest in the world. Since then, a number of events, including a protracted banking crisis, coronavirus, and the Beirut port explosion, have compounded on a dire situation.
Assouad’s research first tackled the dearth of data on economic inequality in Lebanon. There is little data available on the phenomena prior to 2005, the year Syrian forces left Lebanon after nearly three decades of occupation. The data since then is incomplete. Her novel methods of collecting micro-fiscal data allowed Assouad to delve into the nature of inequality in the country and deliver a sober message that economic amelioration must be coupled with political reform. The political elite are often the country’s wealthiest individuals, who continue to take part in kleptocratic and corrupt practices lacking in political accountability and integrity.
Assouad’s recommendations emphasize the need for tax reform in order to generate government revenue. Specifically, she advocates a progressive income tax that would combine all sources of income as one, instead of considering them separately. Additionally, an exceptional wealth tax of 10% on billionaires would collect approximately 2-3% of the national income.
Panelist Gaspard criticized Assouad’s focus on tax reform, suggesting that a progressive tax would not be feasible for a developing economy like Lebanon’s because fiscal management and administrative systems are underdeveloped. He further expanded that while fiscal policy has caused the collapse of the exchange rate, it is monetary policy that brought the collapse of the banking system. Attendees also questioned the ability to tax a wider base when public trust in institutions is so low.
All panelists agreed that economic reform would need to be coupled with massive political change in order to reverse Lebanon’s collapse, but major reforms are difficult during stability, let alone during the country’s current crisis. Such changes require strong leadership, political consensus, public engagement, and tough measures—a combination not to be found in Lebanon today.
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