Tag: Economy
Stevenson’s army, August 8
– Gen. Milley almost resigned in anger at Trump, according to chapter in forthcoming book by Susan Glasser and Peter Baker.
– I’ve been in favor of industrial policy for technology development since helping to enact a program in the 1980s creating Sematech, a private-public consortium for semiconductor manufacturing. Economist Noah Baker mentions that background in analyzing the new CHIPS Act.
– WSJ says there is a draft text of a revived Iran nuclear deal.
– NYT explains dispute over Amnesty International report saying Ukraine endangers civilians.
– Politico says White House opposes new bipartisan bill on Taiwan.
– Chris Buckley [son of Wm F.] reviews new Dana Milbank book blaming Newt Gingrich for changing GOP into nasty culture warriors.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 28 and 29
-WaPo sees brighter Ukraine prospects.-
– Wagner forces said to be in front lines for Russia.
– US poll sees economic problems affecting support for Ukraine.
– WSJ quotes Ukraine complaints about not being able to attack in Russia.
– CHIPs bill now awaits Biden signature. Here are the details.
– NYT says China has made big advances in chips.
I missed this yesterday from Charlie:
– NYT’s Peter Baker suggests Xi is using foreign policy issues to distract from domestic problems.-
– Politico notes that Nancy Pelosi has always been a China hawk.
– WSJ sees Europe ready for long standoff with Russia.
– Politico & others see large neo-Nazi network in Europe & US
– Politico explains why Democrats agreed to big defense increases.
– RollCall reports threats to Hill interns.
– Big CHIPS bill passes Senate.
– Author rebuts critics of his argument that social media have weakened US democracy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 25
– Yale prof says Russian economy is hurting.
– Politico details fights over size of the Navy.
– Politico has more on AIPAC-related campaign involvement.
– Task & Purpose tells of new documentary with Afghan vets.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No sword dancing on treacherous terrain
President Biden’s op/ed in the Washington Post previews his visit next week to the Middle East. He will stop in Jerusalem, the West Bank, Jeddah (for a regional Arab meeting), and Riyadh. The piece has two audiences: the domestic one and the international one, especially in the Middle East but also in Europe and the Far East.
What the Americans want
There are four salient issues for Biden’s domestic audience: the Iran nuclear deal, support for Israel, oil prices, and human rights. America is split on the Iran nuclear deal. Half support Biden’s desire to re-enter it. The other half want to continue the so far unsuccessful effort to sanction Iran into submission, with the possibility of military action if that fails. On support for Israel’s security, there is overwhelming support. But Americans increasingly want accountability for Israeli abuses against Palestinians. Biden avoids that subject in the op/ed.
Most Americans want lower oil prices. Saudi Arabia has been reluctant to increase production, partly in retaliation for Biden’s criticism of human rights practices in the Kingdom, particularly the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That is not a dinnertime conversation topic in the US. But there are many informed voices calling for accountability beyond the minimum the Saudis have so far done.
What the world wants: nuclear deal and Iran’s regional power projection
The rest of the world has a somewhat different set of priorities: not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its regional power projection as well as oil prices. Beyond the US, there is little concern for Israel’s security or human rights, apart from the plight of the Palestinians.
Most of the world would like to see the Iran nuclear deal operating once again. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have not, despite the risks to them of war if Israel or the US seeks to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities. Biden should be aiming to understand their perspective better. My guess is they would be fine with re-entry into nuclear deal provided the US pushes back harder on Iran’s regional power projection.
That could mean doing more to weaken the Houthis in Yemen. It could also mean reducing Iran’s presence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies are major players. Strengthening the nascent regional air defense system (see video above) or even Saudi entry into the Ibrahimic accords are other possibilities.
What the world wants: oil prices and Palestinians
On oil prices, the Saudis may seek some assurances on the downside while the Americans push for increased production. Europe and the Far East will wish the Americans success. Russia, Iran, Iraq, and other major producers will want prices to remain above $100 per barrel. That is what they all need to balance their budgets. No American president can promise sustained high oil prices. But the US is now a net oil and gas exporter. A nod to stability in the oil market is not out of the question.
While Biden will visit the West Bank, he has so far done little more than restore aid to the Palestinians President Trump had zeroed out. The op/ed fails to mention the two-state solution or Israeli responsibility for human rights abuses against Palestinians. It doesn’t even mention the rumored intention to re-open the US consulate in Jerusalem. That had acted for decades before Trump as a de facto embassy to Palestine. We can only hope Biden will be more forthcoming on those issues during his trip.
Treacherous terrain
The Middle East is treacherous terrain for any American president. Trump blundered by sword dancing with the Saudis, both literally and figuratively. He also wrote the Israelis a blank check (including for their territorial ambitions) and ended support for the Palestinians. Biden won’t commit those mistakes. He will try to build on the Ibrahimic accords that Trump initiated, strengthen and unify Arab defenses against Iran, and reach some sort of accommodation on oil production and prices. Odds are the trip will not be a brilliant success, but the ambitions are at least more realistic than his predecessor’s.
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Stevenson’s army, July 1
FYI, I [Charlie Stevenson] have grandparent duty for much of the next few weeks and won’t be able to read and report on the news as often as usual.
Meanwhile. note that the Army has paused its rule allowing enlistment of kids without a high school degree.
Sen. Leahy’s hip surgery really complicates Democratic plans in the 50/50 Senate.
Sen. McConnell threatens to block action on the popular bipartisan America Competes Act if Democrats push a reconciliation bill.
Commerce plans to increase limits on technology exports.
Yesterday, Charlie posted this, while I was traveling, under the heading NATO and more:
– WaPo summarizes the meeting. Here’s the official communique and the new NATO Strategic Concept.
– Reuters says there’s a deal on Kaliningrad.
– Norway suffered a cyber attack.
-Former SASC staffer wants more for Pacific Deterrence Initiative.
– VA reform blocked by parochial Senators, WaPo says.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 26
– Gen Milley says time is not on Ukraine’s side.
– US will re-fill allies who ship to Ukraine.
– Reuters reports Finland and Sweden will seek to join NATO next month.
– Axios has Big Facts on defense spending worldwide.
– WSJ says Russia is hiding economic data.
– Yes, Macron won but big test in June in parliamentary elections.
– Also good news in Slovenia.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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