Tag: Egypt

The difference between Jews

Posted in Daniel Serwer, Uncategorized - April 15, 2016 - 1 Comment

I spent an hour today with two really smart guys: Dov Waxman of Northeastern University and Ilan Peleg of Lafayette College. The occasion was a Middle East Institute event we hosted at SAIS on Dov’s newly published book, Trouble in the Tribe: The American Jewish Conflict over Israel. I can’t review it, because I haven’t read it yet, but the two professors certainly gave me a good deal to think about.

I confess I was uncomfortable with the book’s title. I don’t regard myself as a member of a tribe but rather as an individual who has chosen to be what my parents were: Jews and Americans. Many years ago a co-worker referred to the Jewish owner of the factory we worked in as my Landsmann. That grates to this day. Of course I share with at least some Jews many things: history, culture, beliefs, norms, and support for the state of Israel. But I also share those things with many non-Jews. And I differ from many Jews on some of those things. I am not indifferent to the religious connection, just not willing to prioritize it over everything else and assume a familial tie to someone I had never met.

This turned out to be one of Dov’s main points: many American Jews, especially the millennial generation (of which I am definitively not a member), feel the way I do. We prioritize liberal values rather than ethnic connections. In so doing, we are increasingly at odds with an Israel that has returned to its 19th century roots as a Jewish national movement, especially but not only under Benyamin Netanyahu’s leadership. We want to see Palestinians treated in accordance with liberal values as equals endowed with inalienable rights. Bernie Sanders expressed this view last night in the debate with Hillary Clinton.

So why, I asked, do so many American politicians, like Clinton, support Israel so unconditionally? Even Barack Obama has been assiduous, more so than his predecessors, in protecting Israel from undesired UN Security Council resolutions. Part of the answer is that they get vital support and money from doing so. I’m not going to be able to match Sheldon Adelson as a political donor, but in addition I wouldn’t prioritize Israel as my top issue. He will. Passion counts and most of it is on the side of those who want unconditional support for Israel as the Jewish state. They don’t much care about how Palestinians are treated.

They even deny that they exist, saying they are really just Jordanians. If anyone argues that with you, tell them to talk with a Jordanian and ask what Jews who lived in the Holy Land were called before Israeli independence in the 1948. The answer will shock: they were called Palestinians, albeit Jewish rather than Arab ones. The term “Arab Jew” then applied to the many Jews whose native language was Arabic. Today many use the Hebrew term: Mizrahi Jews, which includes Jews from other than Arab countries.

More important is that Christians, in particular evangelicals, have lined up solidly in more or less unconditional support of Israel. Bernie of course doesn’t have to worry about them, because they will never support him. He is much more interested in that millennial generation, including the young New York Jews he wants to vote for him on Tuesday. So he grabbed the third rail of American politics with both hands and seems to have survived the immediate shock, though I won’t be surprised if Clinton beats him in New York on Tuesday.

Apart from the domestic political issues arising from the palpable split in the American Jewish community, there are potentially serious foreign policy issues. Ilan pointed to the split between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu over the Iranian nuclear deal and Dov mentioned Israeli opposition to the American role in the fall of Egyptian President Mubarak in 2011. On the Iranian nuclear deal, it seems to me the split is already partly healed: Netanyahu has become a cheerleader for strict implementation, since that is manifestly in Israel’s interest.

But the healing is only partial, because the President is inclined to allow at least a partial return of Iran to something more like its traditional role in the region (in exchange for postponement of its nuclear ambitions) while Netanyahu is increasingly aligned with the Sunni Arab states in actively resisting that. He has also begun to imitate some of their less liberal practices in cracking down on Israeli civil society and making life hard for those who speak out against excessive use of force against Palestinians. That really offends my liberal sensibilities.

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Peace Picks April 11-15

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - April 10, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Egypt’s Former Foreign Minister on Regional Statecraft and Domestic Reform | Tuesday, April 12th | 12:00-1:30 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host Nabil Fahmy, former foreign minister of Egypt, for a discussion about Egypt’s political and socioeconomic challenges and its role in regional politics and stability. Egypt’s government is under pressure to deliver economic development, good governance, and increased security in light of growing terrorist threats. These challenges come amid growing regional tensions- from the conflict in Syria to the war in Yemen. How can the state better meet its domestic objectives and how can Egypt play an effective role in brokering greater Middle East stability?
  1. The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Obama Doctrine | Tuesday, April 12th | 1:00-3:30 | Middle East Policy Council | Email info@mepc.org to RSVP | Our panel will address Jeffrey Goldberg‘s essay, “The Obama Doctrine,” and how it impacts U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Please RSVP promptly for limited space. Speakers include James F. Jeffrey, Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, Alireza Nader, Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation, and Fahad Nazer, Senior Political Analyst, JTG, Inc. and Non-Resident Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. The moderator will be Richard Schmierer, Former Ambassador to Oman and Chairman of the Board of Directors, Middle East Policy Council.
  1. The Fourth Annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture: The Politics of Memory in East Asia | Tuesday, April 12th | 4:00-6:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The seventieth anniversary of the end of World War II last year brought another round of contentious memory politics in East Asia. Despite the seeming sameness of the debates, in fact the practices and norms of public memory have substantially altered since the end of the war, creating what speaker Carol Gluck calls a “global memory culture.” Changes in the law, politics, society, criteria of knowledge, and concepts of responsibility have transformed our understanding of what it means to do justice to the past.  How then do these changes relate to the politics of memory in East Asia today? Carol Gluck, George Sansom Professor of History at Columbia University, will speak.
  1. Outlook for Security and Integration of Albania and the Western Balkans | Wednesday, April 13th | 9:30-11:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Since the collapse of the communist regime more than two decades ago, Albania has undergone significant political, economic, and social reforms. Albania became a NATO member in 2009, a European Union (EU) candidate country in 2014, and signed a declaration of strategic partnership with the United States in 2015. Given the increasingly fragmented climate among EU member states over Europe’s capacity to overcome current challenges, the EU’s enlargement agenda has lost momentum. Meanwhile, instability in the Western Balkans has been fueled by unprecedented waves of refugees, and political and economic uncertainty to the South and East. As Prime Minister, H.E. Edi Rama plays a significant role in directing the path for Albania in EU accession negotiations and regional cooperation, particularly through the Berlin Process framework of annual summits in the Western Balkans. In his visit to Washington, DC, Prime Minister Rama will address Albania’s security priorities and goals for the NATO Warsaw Summit, and provide views on Albania’s reform progress.
  1. Supporting Tunisia’s Imperiled Transition | Thursday, April 14th | 8:30-12:15 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Tunisia remains the Arab Awakening’s last best hope. Its political transition is as remarkable as it is fragile—imperiled by both security challenges and significant socioeconomic obstacles. Join us for a discussion of how Tunisia and its international partners can forge a new and more constructive dynamic and reverse the country’s recent troubling trajectory. This event will launch a new Carnegie report entitled Between Peril and Promise: A New Framework for Partnership With Tunisia. Panels and panelists may be found here.
  1. Turkey, its neighborhood, and the international order | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Increasingly, there are concerns about the direction of Turkey’s politics, economy, security, and foreign policy. Debate is growing about the Turkish economy’s vibrancy, and its commitment to democratic norms is being questioned. Moreover, against the backdrop of the chaos in the region, its ability to maintain peace and order is hindered. These difficulties coincide with a larger trend in which the global economy remains fragile, European integration is fracturing, and international governance seems under duress. The spill-over from the conflicts in Syria and Iraq has precipitated a refugee crisis of historic scale, testing the resolve, unity, and values of the West. Will these challenges prove pivotal in reshaping the international system? Will these trials ultimately compel the West to formulate an effective collective response? Will Turkey prove to be an asset or a liability for regional security and order? On April 14, the Turkey Project of the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will host a discussion to assess Turkey’s strategic orientation amid the ever-changing international order. Panelists will include Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Bruce Jones, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan of the University of Maryland, and Francis Riccardone of the Atlantic Council. Cansen Başaran-Symes, president of the Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSİAD) will make introductory remarks. Turkey Project Director and TÜSİAD Senior Fellow Kemal Kirişci will moderate the discussion. After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience.
  1. From ISIS to Declining Oil Prices: Qubad Talabani on the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Challenges | Thursday, April 14th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Opening remarks will be made by Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace. H.E. Qubad Talabani, Deputy Prime Minister, Kurdistan Regional Government, will speak. Henri J. Barkey, Director, Middle East Program, Wilson Center, will moderate. Please join us on April 14 for a discussion with Qubad Talabani, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG). Long an island of stability in a Middle East marked by conflict, the Kurdish region of Iraq now faces a perfect storm. Its finances have been severely affected by the dramatic decline in the price of oil, its main source of revenue. The KRG also faces a constitutional crisis because President Masoud Barzani’s term has ended without the Kurdish political parties finding a definitive way forward or agreement on succession. And the KRG’s Peshmerga military force is engaged with the United States and its allies in an extended offensive to rout the self-declared Islamic State extremist group and liberate the nearby city of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest. Amidst all of this, President Barzani also has indicated that the KRG will hold a referendum in 2016 on whether the region should seek independence from Iraq.
  1. A New Economic Growth Strategy for Pakistan: A Conversation with Pakistani Finance Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar | Thursday, April 14th | 2:30-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | When Pakistan’s current government took office in June 2013, the economy was under tremendous stress. Nearly three years later, estimates suggest that the economy could achieve 4.5 percent GDP growth in fiscal year 2015-16, which would be the highest rate in eight years. Inflation and interest rates have decreased, tax revenues have grown, and the fiscal deficit has shrunk. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves have crossed $20 billion for the first time in history. Meanwhile, the government recently had a successful 10th review from the International Monetary Fund. At the same time, however, the government confronts political, security, and energy challenges that have hindered a full economic recovery. At this event, His Excellency Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s finance minister, will unveil a new two-year strategy to place Pakistan’s economic growth on par with that of other emerging economies in South Asia. He will also speak about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan’s current security situation.
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It’s about democracy, not the Brotherhood

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - March 20, 2016 - 0 Comment

On Thursday, the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy (CSID) presented ‘The Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act? Implications for Egypt and the Region.” Ebrahim Rasool, former South African Ambassador to the US, Nader Hashemi, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver, Neil Hicks, Director of Human Rights Promotion at Human Rights First, and Radwan Masmoudi, Founder and President of CSID, gave their thoughts on how this Congressional bill would affect Egypt and the region.

The Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act passed the House Judiciary Committee on February 24. It calls on the State Department to label the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. If it does not do so, the State Department will need to provide sufficient evidence to indicate why it believes the Muslim Brotherhood is not a terrorist organization. This bill is intended to support Egyptian President Sisi, who ousted democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood President Morsi and has tried to reimpose military order and autocracy.

Rasool believes that this bill will increase tensions in the Middle East. Quelling political dissent and labeling certain groups as terrorists will cause extremism to rise. The US needs to understand this and distinguish between Islamists and extremists.

Hashemi believes that the misguided bill is a gift to ISIS and Al Qaeda. It gives these groups the opportunity to exploit turmoil. The US may see a dictatorship as the lesser evil because it seems to provide stability. But if dictatorship had been stable, it would not have collapsed in the first place. Authoritarian regimes are so fragile that they collapse quickly when there are mass popular protests. A dictatorship only appears stable if it is able to ensure both prosperity and repression. Dictatorships merely create conditions for future, more intense chaos.

Hashemi further argued that Egypt is becoming another breeding ground for Islamic extremism. When the opposition to the Arab Spring came in full force, the promise of peaceful change ended and led to more extremism and violence in the region. Radical Islam thrives as a result of repressive regimes. In the 22 months since Sisi came to power, 700 terrorist attacks have been conducted. Only 90 attacks occurred in the 22 months prior to Sisi. Only two options exist in Egypt today, to be silent or join a revolutionary group that has a voice. Most young people in Egypt do not like ISIS, but they refuse to accept life under tyrants any longer.

Hicks agreed that the Muslim Brotherhood Act is misguided and contributes to more instability in the Middle East. Some Muslim Brotherhood members have been involved in violent activities, but others have participated in non-violent electoral processes. Tunisia exemplifies the non-violent faction of the Muslim Brotherhood. Hicks believes the US has clear interests in Islamists dedicated to nonviolent political activities. As human rights violations and poor governance under the Sisi administration continue, instability increases and harms the US and its allies.

Masmoudi said he disagrees with many of the Muslim Brotherhood’s policies, but that in no way justifies the Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act. When a group makes mistakes, they should pay at the ballot box, not by taking away their human rights. His purpose in arguing against the US Congress decision to label the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group is to defend democracy, not the Muslim Brotherhood. Democracy must be inclusive, which involves the Muslim Brotherhood’s participation.

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Peace picks March 14-18

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - March 14, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Director’s Forum: A Conversation with H.E. Moshe Ya’alon, Minister of Defense of the State of Israel | Monday, March 14th | 9:00-10:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Israel sits in a turbulent and chaotic region. Never has the Middle East been as unstable and challenging: a rising Iran; meltdown in Syria; an impasse in the Palestinian issue; Russian intervention and the rise of ISIS. How does Israel prioritize these challenges? And more importantly, what is Israel’s strategy for dealing with them? Join us for what promises to be a fascinating conversation and discussion of these and other issues with Israel’s Minister of Defense.
  1. Legal Restrictions on Thought and Expression in Pakistan, Egypt, Thailand, and Bahrain | Monday, March 14th | 12:00-2:00 | National Endowment for Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In a number of countries, counter-terrorism, blasphemy, sedition and similar laws are increasingly used to restrict free inquiry and expression, resulting in a shrinking academic and societal space for dialogue. Wrongful prosecutions under these laws not only threaten the well-being of targeted individuals, but undermine the quality of academic work and public discourse and deny everyone in society the benefits of expert knowledge, scientific and creative progress, and free expression. These laws are often defended as reasonable restrictions on violent or anti-social conduct or as appropriate expressions of national or cultural prerogatives. In practice they are used to restrict thought, punish expression, and intimidate individuals and society generally. Panelists from Pakistan, Egypt, Bahrain, and Thailand will discuss how these laws affect their work and research.
  1. Autocracies Failed and Unfailed: Limited Strategies for State Building | Tuesday, March 15th | 8:30-10:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The paper, written by the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations Stephen D. Krasner, and featuring a foreword by Ambassador James B. Cunningham, argues that successful democratization attempts depend mostly on the interests of local elites. To address this “fundamental challenge” Krasner outlines the three elements of “good enough governance” that contribute to a relatively successful democratization effort: 1) security; 2) better service provision; and 3) economic growth.The Atlantic Council Strategy Papers series is designed to enrich the public debate and build consensus on the great strategic challenges of our time, as well as to help shape strategic thinking in US and allied governments, the private and nonprofit sectors, and the global media. The event will feature opening remarks from Dr. Peter Ackerman, Managing Director of Rockport Capital.
  2. From Homs to Hamburg: Refugee movements from Syria to Europe and beyond | Tuesday, March 15th | 10:15-11:15 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As the Syrian civil war enters its sixth year, the associated massive flow of refugees into neighboring countries and onward into Europe continues to overwhelm the international refugee system. As the UNHCR prepares to host a ministerial-level meeting on mechanisms for admitting refugees, the international community urgently needs to coordinate assistance to major host countries, as well as generate creative options for legal channels of migration. On Tuesday March 15, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi to discuss recent developments in the refugee crisis and ways for the international community to equitably share responsibilities in addressing the crisis. Bruce Jones, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks, and Robert McKenzie, visiting fellow for the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World, will moderate the conversation. Following the conversation, Grandi will take questions from the audience. This event is the latest in a series of Brookings events focusing on the Syrian refugee crisis and the U.S. and international community’s responses to it.
  3. The Inner Workings of ISIS | Tuesday, March 15th | 12:30-2:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security for a public discussion with a panel of experts focusing on the inner workings of the Islamic State (ISIS) and how the US-led anti-ISIS coalition can translate this understanding into military success against the group. The Islamic State (ISIS) initially seized the international spotlight by capturing territory spanning western Iraq and eastern Syria, instilling fear in its opponents and administering brutal rule over civilian populations under its control. Over time, ISIS has inspired and carried out attacks from San Bernardino to Paris to the Maghreb and Sinai, becoming a challenge of global proportions. ISIS continues to hold territory, carry out attacks in Iraq and Syria, and brutalize the people living under its rule even as the group faces increasing pressure from the US-led international coalition formed to degrade and destroy it. As the Iraqi government gears up for a US-supported campaign to retake the city of Mosul, how can states translate their understanding of ISIS and its ideology into military successes? How can the US and its partners disrupt the image the group presents online through social media and lessen its appeal to potential recruits? The event will feature Michael Weiss, co-author of the book ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror, as well as Martin Chulov of The Guardian and ISIS cyber researcher Jade Parker of TAPSTRI.
  4. A Conversation with South American Chiefs of Mission | Wednesday, March 16th | 8:45-10:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Join us as we discuss President Obama’s upcoming trip to Latin America as well as key political and economic developments in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay and what they mean for U.S. policy in the hemisphere. Our expert panel includes: Alex Lee Deputy Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs, U.S. Department of State, the Honorable Liliana Ayalde, U.S. Ambassador to Brazil, the Honorable Mike Hammer, U.S. Ambassador to Chile, and Bradley Freden, Chargé d’Affaires, Montevideo, Uruguay. The event will be moderated by Cynthia J. Arnson, Director, Latin American Program at the Wilson Center and Paulo Sotero, Director, Brazil Institute at the Wilson Center.
  5. Divided They Fall: Social Atomization in Putin’s Russia | Wednesday, March 16th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The marginalization of NGOs and political groups is a feature of many authoritarian regimes. In Russia, this is compounded by atomized social bonds and civil society dysfunction even absent government interference. Drawing on her research within Russian communities, Anna Arutunyan will look at how these patterns of interaction impact agency and politics in modern civil society. Anna Arutunyan, a Moscow-based journalist and writer will speak.
  6. U.S.-Colombia Relations: A Conversation with U.S. Ambassador to Colombia, Kevin Whitaker | Wednesday, March 16th | 11:15-12:15 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On March 16, Foreign Policy at Brookings’ Latin America Initiative will host U.S. Ambassador to Colombia Kevin Whitaker who will offer an assessment of the state of U.S.-Colombia relations and the prospects for a successful peace accord between the Colombian government and the FARC. Vice president and director of Foreign Policy Bruce Jones will provide introductory remarks. Senior Fellow Harold Trinkunas will moderate the discussion. Kevin Whitaker was confirmed as Ambassador to Colombia in April 2014. He has previously served as deputy assistant secretary of state for South America, as well as deputy chief of mission in Venezuela and diplomatic posts in Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Following initial remarks and the opening discussion, Ambassador Whitaker will take audience questions.
  7.  The Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act of 2015? Implications for Egypt and the Region | Thursday, March 17th | 12:00-2:00 | Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Amb. Ibrahim Rasool (former Amb. of South Africa), Prof. Nader Hashemi (Univ. of Denver) and Dr. Radwan Masmoudi, President of CSID, will make three short presentations, followed by Q&A, on the dangers and implications of this bill on the democratization process in Egypt and in the region. As you know, this bill is moving forward very quietly, but quickly, in congress, and has already been approved by the House Judiciary Committee (in a 17-10 vote along partisan lines). The Congressional hearing was extraordinarily brief. As two members of the committee pointed out, it completely ignored the usual process of expert testimony from the State Department, intelligence agencies and Middle East and terrorism experts. We, as scholars and strong believers and activists for democracy in the region, think that this bill – if adopted – will have extremely bad repercussions on stability and democracy in the region, on relations between the US and the Muslim World, and will further radicalize millions of young Muslims, in Egypt and in the region, who are seeking to have a role and a voice in shaping the future of their country.
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The Islamic State is the easy problem

Posted in Daniel Serwer - March 9, 2016 - 0 Comment

While the Obama Administration is leaking profusely plans for military intervention in Libya against the Islamic State, I spent a good part of yesterday with people worrying about what to do there beyond killing extremists. It is all too obvious that an air war without a political solution that mobilizes Libyans against the extremists could leave the country even more destabilized than it already is.

It is not so clear what to do about that. A political solution is on the table, but its implementation is stalled, perhaps permanently. Even if the diplomats succeed in their current efforts to get the Government of National Accord (GNA) sworn in, its move to Tripoli poses big security problems, as the capital is in the hands of 15 or more militias loyal to one of the country’s two separate legislative bodies.

Planning for a peacekeeping/stabilization mission is ongoing with the Europeans, including the British, French and Italians. The Americans won’t contribute ground troops but rather “enablers” like ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance to the civilians among us) as well as whatever is needed (drones, aircraft, special forces) to attack ISIS.

There is a wide range of views on what kind of stabilization mission is desirable or possible. Some think a light footprint limited to Tripoli, or even limited to protecting the GNA and foreign embassies, will suffice and arouse little Libyan xenophobia, provided the strategic communications are adequate. Others note that experience elsewhere would require upwards of 70,000 international peacekeepers in a country the size of Libya requiring peace enforcement. A small force unable or unwilling to protect the Libyan population might arouse more resentment and resistance, not less. At the very least, major routes, cantonments of weapons, borders and oil facilities will need protection, either by internationals or Libyans.

Any stabilization force will require a GNA request, Arab League endorsement and a United Nations Security Council mandate. It will need to be able to supply and defend itself, including from Islamic State and other extremist and criminal attacks. Those are tall orders.

But Libya also has some characteristics that make peacekeeping relatively easy: it is close to Europe, has good ports and a long coastline, it is mostly flat and desert, with few places for spoilers to hide, other than urban areas. The population is mostly Arab (there are Berbers as well–remember the Barbary pirates) and overwhelmingly Sunni. The country’s immediate neighbors–Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria–are all anxious to end the instability and block the Islamic State from establishing a safe haven in Libya, though they don’t necessarily agree on how to do that.

Beyond getting the GNA up and running, what to do about the militias in Libya is the most difficult governance problem. The Finance Ministry, which still functions, has been paying many of them. Others, especially in the south and west, have already gone into private sector, running smuggling and other illicit businesses. Past efforts to build a united Libyan security force by training people outside the country failed miserably. Next time around it will have to be done in Libya. Many of the militiamen will need to be disarmed and demobilized, but there is little in the way of an economy to integrate them into. It is vital to remember that the militias are linked to local patronage networks, which need to be mobilized in favor of stabilization, not against it.

While the US and others have the tools needed to kill extremists, it is not at all clear that we have what is needed to help the Libyans sort out their differences and begin to govern in ways that will deny safe haven to the Islamic State, which already controls the central coastal town of Sirte. We suffer from PDD: paradigm deficit disorder. A hundred T.E. Lawrences prepared to deploy with the militias and help sort out their differences might suffice. But where would we get the 100 Arabic speakers with deep knowledge of the Libyan human terrain? We have all but forgotten whatever we learned about such things in Iraq and Afghanistan, erased because the administration was determined not to get involved again in statebuilding in the Middle East.

The Islamic State is the easy part of the problem. The hard part is figuring out how Libya will be stabilized and governed once it is gone.

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Peace picks March 7-11

Posted in Ceighley Cribb - March 7, 2016 - 0 Comment
  1. Women in the Peace Process: Making Peace Last in Colombia | Women have played groundbreaking roles in Colombia’s peace process between the government and the country’s largest rebel group, the FARC. With a peace agreement in sight and on the occasion of International Women’s Day, join the U.S. Institute of Peace on March 8 for a briefing on the status of women in peace processes, with a focus on the Colombia case. The discussion is co-sponsored by USIP’s Colombia Peace Forum and the Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum. The panelists will discuss the United Nations Security Council Resolutions that have called for engaging women in peace processes as a matter of international security, and the long-term efforts to broaden and support initiatives by women and other sectors of civil society as the key to the sustainability of peace. A 30-minute video, “Women Mediating in Colombia,” will document a USIP-supported project to strengthen the capacities of Colombia’s women as mediators. Participants include Carla Koppell, Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation, U.S. Institute of Peace, Kathleen Kuehnast, Senior Gender Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace, and Virginia M. Bouvier, Senior Advisor for Peace Processes, U.S. Institute of Peace.
  2. How Can Societies Control Corruption? The European Experience | Tuesday, March 8th | 10:00-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | In recent years, the EU has made an unprecedented effort to transform its periphery by exporting values such as rule of law, democracy and good governance. The experience is discussed as part of the criticism to the global anticorruption approach in Alina Mungiu-Pippidi‘s book, A Quest for Good Governance: How Societies Develop Control of Corruption. Mungiu-Pippidi, who works as a governance expert for the European Union institutions has also been an active promoter of civil society work in her native Romania, the Balkans and Ukraine. The talk will review the few successes around the world and will compare them with the EU attempt to change old members, new members and neighborhood countries. This event is being organized in cooperation with the Ratiu Family Charitable Foundation.
  3. Pathways to Resilience: Evidence From Africa on Links Between Conflict Management and Resilience to Food Security Shocks | Tuesday, March 8th | 3:00-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Household food security is gravely affected by economic and climate-related shocks. A series of new research studies conducted by Mercy Corps in the Horn of Africa, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria argue that strengthening conflict management systems helps build resilience to those shocks. On March 8, Daniel Alemu, Chief of Party for Mercy Corps’ ‘Communities Helping Their Environment and Land by Bridging Interests’ program, and Jon Kurtz, Mercy Corps director of research and learning, will present the findings of the research and what it means for development and humanitarian policy. Following their presentations, experts on conflict, development, food security, and resilience will share their thoughts on the implications for cross-sectoral programming and efforts to bolster resilience in climate-affected areas. Other speakers include Ed Carr, Director of the International Development, Community, and Environment Department at Clark University, Roger-Mark De Souza, Wilson Center Director of Population, Environmental Security, and Resilience, Sharon Morris, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, and Joan Whelan, U.S. Agency for International Development Senior Policy and Learning Officer.
  4. Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire | Wednesday, March 9th | 3:00-4:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Agnia Grigas’s book, Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire, examines how—for more than two decades—Moscow has consistently used its compatriots in bordering nations for its territorial ambitions. Demonstrating how this policy has been implemented in Ukraine and Georgia, Grigas provides cutting-edge analysis of the nature of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy and compatriot protection to warn that Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, and others are also at risk.
  5. Looking Forward: A Conversation with Kazakhstan’s Secretary of State | Thursday, March 10th | 10:30-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Over the past 25 years, Kazakhstan has made hard-earned progress, rising from the poverty and chaos of sudden independence to become a middle-income nation. President Nazarbayev recently introduced a strategic vision for its long-term development, “Kazakhstan 2050,” outlining the key reforms necessary for Kazakhstan to become globally competitive. Please join us for a conversation with Kazakhstan’s Secretary of State Gulshara Abdykalikova and Deputy Foreign Minister Yerzhan Ashikbayev to discuss the road ahead. Secretary Abdykalikova also serves as Chairwoman of the National Commission for Women’s Affairs and Family and Demographics Policy, and will discuss the importance of facilitating women’s empowerment and leadership in order for Kazakhstan to realize its ambitious social and economic goals.
  6. Japan’s Energy Priorities and Policies in the MENA Region | Thursday, March 10th | 10:30-12:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Nearly 90 percent of Japan’s imported oil comes from the Middle East, a region where protracted conflicts cause continued turmoil. Through its private sector, Japan’s extensive financial assistance to the region, and its 2016 role as a nonpermanent member on the UN Security Council, Japan’s strategic interests and resulting policies will continue to be important factors in global energy markets and international relations. On March 10, 2016, the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Global Energy Center will bring together Japanese scholars and practitioners alongside US analysts to discuss Japanese energy priorities and policies in the Middle East. These experts will discuss how the Middle Eastern landscape impacts Japan’s energy policies, and how Japanese policies in turn impact the region. Dr. Ken Koyama specializes in economic and political analysis of the world oil market. Dr. Sara Vakhshouri is the Founder and President of SVB Energy International, a strategic energy consulting firm. Dr. Yasuyuki Matsunaga specializes in politics and democratization in Iran, and is an expert in post-Iran nuclear deal implications. Dr. Kota Suechika is a Professor at the College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University and specializes in regional security including the global concerns posed by the Syrian crisis. Ambassador Frederic Hof specializes in the conflict in Syria. Mr. Masataka Okano previously served in the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, the Russian Division, and the Korea Division and specializes in political affairs, particularly US relations with Japan, East Asia, South East Asia, and South Asia. He will make opening remarks. Ambassador Richard L. Morningstar is a former Ambassador to the Republic of Azerbaijan and Secretary of State Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy. He will make opening remarks
  7. Egypt: Sex, Rights, Politics, and US Foreign Policy with Scott Long | Thursday, March 10th | 5:00-7:00 | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Since the 2013 coup, Egypt has seen massive and spreading human rights violations, part of a counterrevolution stretching across the Middle East. LGBTI Egyptians have been among the victims. Egypt today keeps more people imprisoned for their gender expression or for same-sex sexual conduct than any other country in the world. Why? Why has a panic over sexuality and gender become a tool of the counterrevolution, and how do these abuses relate to other state crimes in Sisi’s repressive Egypt? This talk will also examine the role of the Obama administration in supporting the Sisi regime, and the contradictions in its declared support for LGBTI rights globally. Presentations will be followed by a Q&A session.
  8. The Future of Peacekeeping in Africa: Lessons from Ghana | Peacekeeping missions today face some of the most complex environments in their history. President Obama in September 2015 reaffirmed U.S. support for United Nations peace operations and directed a range of actions to strengthen them for a new era. Ghana, with its long history of contributing to peacekeeping and with soldiers in 12 of 16 U.N. missions, provides lessons in effective training, policymaking and non-violent conflict resolution. Understanding the political, operations and conflict environment is key to successful peacekeeping. That’s a priority for the United States, which provides almost 30 percent of the annual peacekeeping budget and, in 2014, pledged $110 million a year for three to five years to build the capacity of the continent’s militaries for rapidly deploying peacekeepers in response to emerging conflict. Ghana, the eighth-largest contributor to U.N. peacekeeping operations, has significant troops in Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lebanon, Liberia, South Sudan and Côte d’Ivoire.  It also has supported missions of the Economic Community of West African States and the African Union. The panelists include Colonel Emmanuel Kotia, chief instructor and academic programs coordinator at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre in Ghana, and author of the new book, “Ghana Armed Forces in Lebanon and Liberia Peace Operations.” He has more than 28 years of service with the Ghana Armed Forces and served at critical junctures with the peace operations in Lebanon and Liberia.
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