Tag: Egypt
Battlefield to conference room
Today’s US/EU/Russia/Ukraine Joint Diplomatic Statement aims to de-escalate a conflict that has been spiraling for weeks. The steps it proposes are straightforward:
All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The participants strongly condemned and rejected all expressions of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including anti-Semitism.
All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated.
Amnesty will be granted to protesters and to those who have left buildings and other public places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of capital crimes.
The Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE) is to provide monitors, as had been hoped in Crimea (but Russia did not permit it, preferring to annex the peninsula).
Like many diplomatic statements, this one is well-intentioned but riddled with ways to wriggle out. There will always be violence, intimidation or provocation on which one side can base its own violence intimidation or provocation against the other. Disarmament of armed groups generally requires a superior force to undertake the task. Which building and other seizures are illegal is in the eye of the beholder. Where are those who allegedly committed capital crimes to be tried and by whom?
Whether the statement is a turning point will depend on political will. It is difficult for me to imagine that President Putin is ready to de-escalate. He has been on a winning wicket both in Ukraine and in Syria. Why would he want to stop now? The statement presumably forestalls further EU and US sanctions, but he knows as well as everyone in the DC and Brussels press corps that agreement on those was going to be difficult. Ukrainian military and police action to counter Russian-sponsored takeovers in the east has so far failed. I suppose Putin knows even better than this morning’s New York Times that Russia’s economy was on the rocks even before the Ukraine crisis. It will get worse, but since when did Putin or Putinism worry about the economy? Oil prices around $100/barrel are all he has needed to get Russia up off its knees. Crisis helps keep the oil price up.
So I’ll be surprised if this agreement holds, or even begins to change the perilous direction Ukraine is heading in. But the statement includes an important bit that should not be ignored:
The announced constitutional process will be inclusive, transparent and accountable. It will include the immediate establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies, and allow for the consideration of public comments and proposed amendments.
The Ukraine crisis, like the Syrian one, is fundamentally a political crisis: it is more about perceptions of legitimacy and distribution of power than about who military balance or who speaks which language. We’ve seen in Libya, Egypt and Syria the results of failure to conduct an inclusive and transparent discussion of the kind of state their people want and how its leadership will be held accountable. It is very difficult to move from violence to the negotiating table unless one side is defeated or both sides recognize they will not gain from further violence. Tunisia and Yemen have done it, but they are the exceptions, not the rule.
The odds of successfully moving from the battlefield to the conference room in Ukraine are low. But that is the challenge our diplomats now face, along with the OSCE monitors. I can only wish them success, no matter how unlikely that may be.
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Peace Picks April 14 – 18
1. Terrorism, Party Politics, and the US: Expectations of the Upcoming Iraqi Elections
Monday, April 14 | 12:30 – 2pm
Room 517, SAIS (The Nitze Building), 1740 Massachusetts Ave NW
Ahmed Ali, Iraq research analyst and Iraq team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, and Judith Yaphe, adjunct professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, will discuss this topic.
For more information and to RSVP, send an email to: menaclub.sais@gmail.com
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Libya adrift
Wednesday’s lunchtime assessment of Libya sponsored by the Middle East Institute was one of those rare events: excellent, if gloomy, analysis by Charles Dunne (who moderated), Karim “the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming this way” Mezran on politics, and militiaman Fred Wehrey on security, followed by an equally excellent but wonderfully judicious set of policy recommendations for the US Government from David Mack.
The facts speak for themselves. Libya has been unable to establish the state’s monopoly on the legitimate means of violence, its parliament has been reduced to an Islamist rump, the elections for its constitution drafting committee saw minimal turnout and election of only 47 out of 60 members, its government was sacked after being unable to prevent export of pirated oil, the population lacks confidence in the institutions and the institutions lack legitimacy. What else could go wrong?
Karim Mezran managed a moment of sunshine with mention of the national dialogue, whose preparatory committee is now traveling around the country holding town hall meetings. It is searching for the missing link: a serious political compact. But its funding for the next phase is not guaranteed. Another ray of sunshine is last summer’s National Democratic Institute poll. Libyans want democracy. They just don’t know how to get there from here.
The obvious barrier is the militias, which were vital to fighting Qaddafi but have now taken on criminal and political roles. Fred Wehrey noted the Catch 22 security dilemma: the militias can’t be gotten rid of because the politicians are afraid doing so will leave them exposed, so other politicians up the ante, which makes the situation worse. The political institutions are bankrupt and state capacity at the national level is lacking. At the local level there are effective social contracts, mainly negotiated by the tribes, but this makes the situation even more complicated. Libya is many problems, not one.
Even the General Purpose Force of up to 28,000 troops now being trained by internationals is a problem. It is intended to protect the government, but politicians, militias and people are all frightened it will be used against them. The initial recruits were not properly vetted, there are problems of regional representation, and a political compact governing its use has not been reached. Many fear that General Sisi’s example in Egypt will be followed in Libya, returning the country to autocracy.
While acknowledging all these issues, David Mack soberly noted that Libya is not a big factor in world energy markets but rather a regional player with potential to become a major oil and gas producer to Europe, replacing Russian gas. Even in the Middle East, Washington is more concerned with the Israel/Palestine negotiations, the war Syria, and Egypt’s revolution gone awry, not to mention Ukraine and other issues farther afield. Libya has the potential to be a Somalia on the Mediterranean, but it can also be a prosperous country with a serious commitment to human rights. It has the resources to rebuild. What it needs is a bit of help getting on the right track.
The US needs to help where it can, David suggested, but keep a low profile and stay out of internal Libyan politics. Leading from behind is not a four letter word. In this situation, it is better to put good ideas through the UN than to offer them up wrapped in an American flag. Libyan backlash against foreign intervention, especially from the US, could be dramatic.
Still, the US has things it can and should offer. David favors private sector assistance, including an Overseas Private Investment Corporation agreement and strong Foreign Commercial Service representation. He also wants to see expanded educational collaboration with US universities, and possibly contractor help in building the Libyan armed forces and police. All this requires consular services in Tripoli for both Americans and Libyans.
David considers some additional options for fuller governmental engagement, especially on the security and counter-terrorism fronts, as well as an option for deferring to the Europeans. These he allows to fall away, leaving US policy largely in the hands of private sector actors for implementation. Some of us familiar with the difficulties of US contractors in other non-permissive environments may have our doubts that this is sufficient, but it is a rare and precious diplomat who so consciously and assiduously seeks to limit commitments to a country he has followed for decades, for our sake as well as theirs.
Libya is adrift. I might opt for one of David’s more forward-leaning options, but only keeping his warnings in mind.
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Egypt: new voices, untold stories
Tuesday morning the Atlantic Council hosted an event discussing the major issues facing Egypt today. The featured speakers were Sarah El-Sirgany (Nonresident fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and freelance journalist), Mohammad Tolba (Founder, Salafyo Costa), Basil Dabh (Journalist, Daliy News Egypt), and Mosa’ab El Shamy (Photojournalist). Mirette Mabrouk, Deputy Director for Regional Programs at the Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, moderated.
Sarah El-Sirgany said the current population in Egypt is about 90 million people. It is a diverse demographic. Looking at public polls, if presidential elections were held tomorrow, 51% of the population says it would vote for Al-Sisi and 45% is undecided. The fact that such a large percentage is undecided challenges the idea that public opinion is unified. Outside Cairo, politics is a lot less relevant. Egyptians living in rural areas are undecided. Generally they do not care as much about politics. When the Egyptian uprising began, the protestors’ slogan was, “The people want to bring down the regime.” Today, the people’s wants have been appropriated by government parties claiming to represent the Egyptian people.
Mohammad Tolba spoke about how those in power have disappointed and failed the Egyptian people in the past three years. Rural communities lack basic services and cannot meet their daily needs. In his opinion, going to the streets and protesting is no longer the way to bring about meaningful change. It is time to translate slogans and chants into concrete actions. The “real” Egypt needs to be empowered, not just the elite.
Mohammad founded Salafyo Costa in response to discrimination and negative stereotypes of Salafis. Currently there are 30,000 members. Salafyo Costa uses unorthodox methods to encourage interfaith dialogue. For example, through soccer matches between Salafis and Christians, Salafyo Costa promotes coexistence and mutual respect. The organization also sends teams of doctors with different religious backgrounds to provide humanitarian aid to marginalized communities.
Mibrette Mabrouk asked, what are the troubles photojournalists face today?
Mosa’ab El Shamy replied that the biggest challenge has been the rise in violence and imprisonment of journalists since June 2013. Since then, at least five photojournalists have been killed and two have been detained. Photojournalists are particularly at risk because they have to be at the forefront of events. They must always be braced for arrests. The challenges journalists face are not always limited to violence from the state. Violence is multifaceted and does not come from one side. Journalists spared by the police are likely to be targeted by protesters. Due to the level of violence and tension on the street, civilians are becoming more suspicious of photojournalists. In addition, Mosa’ab gets the sense that Egypt is no longer a hot topic. The international community has lost interest in the Egyptian uprising.
Nevertheless, Mosa’ab wants to document and increase awareness of events in Egypt. As an independent photojournalist, he feels like he can direct news through his photos.
Basil said that since 2011, there have been unprecedented crackdowns on journalists. Since Morsi’s overthrow, pro-Morsi media outlets have been shut down and have not returned. The past three years have been a constant battle of narratives. The mainstream media has generally fallen in line with the current government narrative. It is bolstered by conspiracy theories. Independent journalists do not fact-check. They accept what the government tells them. This is either because there is no way to verify the information or because it is too dangerous to do so.
Sarah pointed out that there is a growing movement of social media and citizen journalism. However, there are many issues concerning objectivity and fact checking. Many people are driven by personal beliefs and objectives rather than the truth.
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Peace Picks March 17 -21
There were a few cancellations and postponements today due to the weather. Nevertheless, here are our picks for DC events this week:
1. Peace and Stability in the Central African Republic
Tuesday, March 18 | 9:30 – 11am
Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium; 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
REGISTER TO ATTEND
Register for the live webcast
The Central African Republic has become one of the most challenging humanitarian, security and political crises on the African continent since the coup that unseated President Francois Bozizé one year ago. Violence along community and religious lines has claimed thousands of lives, and more than one million people remain displaced. Strong domestic and international efforts are needed to address the humanitarian and security crisis as well as restore state authority and consolidate peace in the country.
On March 18th, the Africa Growth Initiative (AGI) at the Brookings Institution will host a conversation with Archbishop Dieudonné Nzapalainga, Imam Omar Kabine Layama and Reverend Nicolas Guérékoyamé Gbangou, the Central African Republic’s highest-ranking Catholic, Muslim and Protestant leaders, respectively. Their work to prevent violence and promote interreligious tolerance has won national and international praise. AGI Senior Fellow Amadou Sy will moderate the discussion, which will include questions from the audience.
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Peace Picks March 3 –7
The weather prediction suggests a good deal of this may not happen, especially Monday and Tuesday, but here are our picks for DC events if that turns out to be a false alarm:
1. Growing Opposition to President Hassan Rouhani: Is the Honeymoon Ending?
Monday, March 3 | 9:30am – 11am
12th Floor, The Stimson Center; 1111 19th Street NW
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is seeing escalating public criticism from Iran’s conservative factions, once seemingly stifled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Will Rouhani’s presidency follow in the footsteps of the Mohammad Khatami era?
The Stimson Center and the Heinrich Boll Foundation North America invite you to join us for a discussion on the shifting internal political dynamics in Iran and how these events will shape the future of Iran’s relations with the West.
Panelists:
Mohammad Ayatollah Tabaar, Assistant Professor, Texas A&M University
Mehdi Arabshahi, Former President of the Office for Consolidating Unity, the largest student union for democracy and human rights in Iran
Moderator:
Geneive Abdo, Fellow, Stimson’s Middle East Program Read more
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