Tag: Egypt
Peace Picks February 24 – 28
1. Twitter Evolutions: The Changing Role of Social Media in War and Protest
Monday, February 24 | 9am – 1pm
U.S. Institute of Peace; 2301 Constitution Ave NW
In the early days of the Arab Spring, many hailed digital media as revolutionary tools for democracy and peace building. Three years later, as the region still struggles with authoritarian retrenchment and civil war, social media continues to play an important, if far more complex, role in ongoing events. Meanwhile, protest movements in parts of Europe – especially Turkey and Ukraine – are providing intriguing, and complicated, examples of digitally active protest movements and recalcitrant governments.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace on February 24th for two panel discussions on social media’s role in political protest and civil war across the Middle East and Europe.
The first panel will discuss the recently released Blogs & Bullets report, which examined mainstream media coverage, YouTube videos, and more than 40 million tweets over a two-year period to show the changing use and impact of media in the Syrian crisis. The second panel will explore the relationship between social media and the political crises in Egypt, Turkey, and Ukraine. This event is part of the ongoing Blogs & Bullets project, a partnership between USIP’s PeaceTech Initiative and George Washington University’s Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication.
Online viewers will be able to engage panelists and each other via a live Twitter discussion (#usipblogs).
Agenda:
9:00am to 9:10am | Introduction
Sheldon Himelfarb
Director of Media, Technology, and Peace building, U.S. Institute of Peace
9:10am to 10:30am | Panel I: Syria’s Socially Mediated Civil War
P.J. Crowley, Moderator
Professor of Practice, School of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs
Marc Lynch
Director, Institute for Middle East Studies, George Washington University
Sean Aday
Director, Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication, George Washington University
Deen Freelon
Assistant Professor of Communications Studies, American University
10:30am to 10:45am | Break
10:45am to 12:30pm | Panel II: New Media and Contentious Politics in Egypt, Ukraine and Turkey
P.J. Crowley, Moderator
Professor of Practice, School of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University. Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs
Adel Iskandar
Adjunct Instructor, Communication, Culture & Technology, Georgetown University
Joshua Tucker
Professor of Politics, New York University
Zeynep Tufecki
Assistant Professor, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
2. Corruption and Business in Russia: National Problem, Regional Solutions
Monday, February 24 | 9:15am – 12:00pm
5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
There is a perception that it is not possible to do business in Russia without engaging in corruption. While corruption in Russia is a fact of life, individual businesses are employing a range of strategies to reduce their exposure and give them access to international partners. The Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE) and the Kennan Institute present expert findings on this timely issue.
Jordan Gans-Morse, an assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University, will present his research on how non-oligarchic firms are surviving in an atmosphere of endemic corruption. The firms’ coping mechanisms and the means they use to settle business disputes shed light on the course of Russia’s future economic development. Based on extensive field research, Gans-Morse is at work on a book about law, property rights, and corruption in Russia. CIPE Moscow Program Officer Natalya L. Titova will speak on a CIPE initiative in Russia that is helping regional business to meet international anti-corruption standards in order to join international value chains.
During the discussion, the speakers will be joined on a panel by CIPE partners from St. Petersburg, Chelyabinsk and Kaliningrad where corruption is a significant barrier to attracting investment.
SPEAKERS
Marina Fitsak
Vice President, Kaliningrad Chamber of Commerce and Industry
Jordan Gans-Morse
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Northwestern University
Ludmila Karelina
Director General, International Institute of Organization Management, St. Petersburg
Oleg Moskovsky
Chelyabinsk business owner, expert on commercial risk and debt management
Natalya L. Titova
Program Officer, Moscow, Center for International Private Enterprise
3. Women in the New Arab Politics: A Conversation with Members of Parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia
Tuesday, February 25 | 10am – 11:30am
8th floor, National Democratic Institute; 455 Massachusetts Ave NW
Please join the National Democratic Institute and the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution for a discussion with members of parliament from Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. The MPs will discuss the evolving role of women in politics in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential means of enhancing the participation and leadership of women on the issues of economic development and inclusive growth in times of political transition.
The discussion will be moderated by Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and a senior fellow at Brookings. NDI director of women’s political participation Susan Markham will provide opening remarks.
4. US diplomacy with adversaries: Dancing with the devil, or how enemies become friends
Tuesday, February 25 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm
10th floor, Center for American Progress; 1333 H St NW
Please join the Center for American Progress and AEI for a discussion marking the release of “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes,” a new book by Michael Rubin. In the book, Rubin argues that US diplomacy with countries such as Iran and North Korea and groups such as the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hezbollah has significant risks.
The discussion will feature Charles Kupchan, author of the 2012 book “How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace.” In his book, Kupchan argues that diplomatic engagement with adversaries is essential for enhancing global stability and order.
The discussion is the continuation of a series of joint conversations between the Center for American Progress and AEI examining major national security issues in the coming years.
SPEAKERS
Panelists:
Charles Kupchan, Council on Foreign Relations
Michael Rubin, AEI
Moderator:
Brian Katulis, Center for American Progress
5. Civil Society in Afghanistan: Spark or Stumbling Block for Stability?
Tuesday, February 25 | 3 – 5pm
5th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
With international troops withdrawing from Afghanistan, Afghan efforts to promote security will increasingly be taking center stage. This event examines the extent to which Afghan nongovernment organizations (NGOs) can help achieve stability. Speakers will discuss the appropriate balance between state, market, and civil society in fostering stability in Afghanistan; assess the U.S. military’s civil society outreach and engagement efforts in Afghanistan; present findings on how Afghan NGOs are working to counter violent extremism and build peace; and examine how Afghan civil society is preparing for 2015, and how the United States can help.
There will be a live webcast of this event.
SPEAKERS
Clare Lockhart
Co-founder and director, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia
Mehreen Farooq
Senior fellow, World Organization for Resource Development and Education
Waleed Ziad
Director of South and Central Asia Programs, World Organization for Resource Development and Education
6. Surveillance Costs: The NSA’s Impact on the Economy, Information Security, and Internet Freedom
Tuesday, February 25 | 4 – 6:30pm
New America Foundation, 1899 L St NW
There’s a debate raging in DC and around the world about the extensive National Security Agency (NSA) surveillance programs that were first revealed this past summer–not only about whether the surveillance is consistent with constitutional and human rights, but also about the costs and the benefits of such mass surveillance. New America’s National Security Studies Program recently addressed the “benefits” question by releasing an in-depth research report demonstrating that the NSA programs have done little to prevent terrorism.
This event from New America’s Open Technology Institute (OTI) will look at the other side of the coin and examine the costs of the NSA programs. Such costs include not only the direct cost to the American taxpayer, but also the cost to the American Internet industry (by some estimates over $180 billion within the next few years), the cost to America’s foreign relations and its work to promote “Internet Freedom” globally, and finally, the cost to Internet security itself.
Join us for a lively discussion on these and other costs of surveillance, with representatives from the Internet industry and the Internet security community along with security policy experts from the left and right, moderated by a longtime legal advocate in the surveillance and privacy world and with an introduction from the US State Department’s former Director of Policy Planning, New America’s President & CEO Anne-Marie Slaughter.
SPEAKERS
Introduction:
Anne-Marie Slaughter
President & CEO, New America Foundation
Featured Speakers:
Daniel Castro
Senior Analyst, The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)
Mieke Eoyang
National Security Program Director, Third Way
Richard Fontaine
President, The Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Ross Schulman
Public Policy and Regulatory Counsel,
The Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA)
Micah Sherr
Assistant Professor of Computer Science, Georgetown University
Moderator:
Kevin Bankston
Policy Director, New America Foundation, Open Technology Institute
7. Ongoing Political Unrest in Bosnia: Drivers of Change and Future Implications
Sponsored by the George Washington University Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES) and the Advisory Council for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Tuesday, February 25 | 4 – 5pm
Voesar Conference Room, Suite 412; 1957 E St NW
Recent public protests have once again turned international attention to Bosnia and Herzegovina, the site of the 1992-1995 war that left 2 million people displaced and more than 100,000 killed. Almost twenty years after the war, Bosnians across the country have taken to the streets to demand an end to corruption and the ineffective system of governance that have paralyzed the state and robbed its citizens of economic prosperity and a brighter future. The panel will examine the path that led to this crisis, what lies ahead for the postwar state, including its prospects for EU and NATO membership, and broader implications for the region.
SPEAKERS
Nidžara Ahmetašević, Slobodna Bosna (via Skype)
Janusz Bugajski, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Jasmin Mujanović, Harriman Institute, Columbia University
Moderated by:
Sarah Wagner, George Washington University Deptartment of Anthropology
8. Modern Africa: A Symposium on Opportunities for Women in Energy and Water Access
Wednesday, February 26 | 8:30am – 1:30pm
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW
To register for this event, please email africa@csis.org
Please join us for a conference on women’s access to water and clean energy in Africa. Practitioners, thought leaders, experts, entrepreneurs, and policy makers will discuss and explore the opportunities in water-energy access in Africa, and give examples of successful policies and entrepreneurial ventures that are helping to increase women’s participation in, and contribution to, the water and energy sectors in Africa. The panel sessions will focus on removing barriers to women’s access to energy and water, and on harnessing opportunities at the water-energy access nexus through innovative social, impact, and for-profit investment models, and diaspora networks and platforms to establish business ventures and relationships that catalyze more investments.
Panel discussions will cover:
Women’s Access to Energy
Women’s Access to Water
Harnessing Opportunities to Increase Access to Energy and Water through Partnerships and Innovative Investment Models
The event will be webcast.
SPEAKERS
Pepukaye Bardouille, International Finance Corporation
Tim Boersma, The Brookings Institution
Jennifer Cooke, Africa Program, CSIS
Agnes Dasewicz, USAID, Power Africa
Alexander Dixon, The Aspen Institute
M. Eric V. Guichard, Homestrings Ltd
Maya Harris, U.S. Department of Energy
Rachel Ishofsky, InnoAfrica
Paula Jackson, American Association of Blacks in Energy
Dr. Lawrence Jones, Center for Sustainable Development in Africa
Richenda Van Leeuwen, U.N. Foundation
Katherine Lucey, Solar Sister
Radha Muthiah, Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves
Dr. Jacques Sebisaho, Amani Global Works
Frank Verrastro, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS
9. Rached Ghannouchi on Tunisia’s Democratic Transition
Wednesday, February 26 | 12pm – 1:30pm
Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW
Amid a series of setbacks for pluralism and citizen rights in the Middle East, Tunisia has again provided a positive example for the region. In a landmark step, the country’s Islamic and secular political forces reached agreement on a constitution that embraces equal rights and provides a foundation for Tunisia’s transition to democracy. But while progress has been made, the country still faces serious economic and political challenges, as well as simmering ideological tensions and the rise of radical Salafism.
Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder and president of Tunisia’s Ennahda Party, will give an address on what lies ahead for his country. Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher will moderate the discussion.
SPEAKERS
Rached Ghannouchi
Rached Ghannouchi co-founded the Ennahda Movement, an Islamist group that is currently Tunisia’s largest political party and the dominant participant in a coalition that has governed the country since the October 2011 elections. After spending more than two decades in exile for his political activism, Ghannouchi returned to Tunisia in January 2011 to participate in the country’s democratic transition. Widely recognized as one of the world’s most influential Islamic thinkers, he was named one of TIME’s one hundred most influential people in the world in 2012.
Marwan Muasher
Marwan Muasher is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan.
10. Egypt’s Economy: Addressing the Challenges Ahead
Wednesday, February 26 | 12 – 1:30pm
SEIU Conference Center, 1800 Massachusetts Ave NW
Three years after Egypt’s January 25 revolution, triggered in part by a demand for greater economic opportunity, Egypt’s economy remains fragile, with slowing GDP growth, declining foreign investment, and youth unemployment at levels that threaten ongoing social unrest. With presidential elections expected this spring, The Middle East Institute will host a discussion about the economic challenges and opportunities faced by Egypt’s future leadership and what more the international community can do to help encourage growth. The discussion will feature Shantayanan Devarajan, Chief Economist of the Middle East and North Africa Region at the World Bank, Ahmed Ghoneim, professor of economics at Cairo University, Zubair Iqbal, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, and Steve Lutes, director of Middle East Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. MEI vice president for policy and research Paul Salem will moderate the event.
11. Getting Beyond 2014 in Afghanistan
Friday, February 28 | 9am – 12:30pm
U.S. Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Ave NW
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace, Voice of America, and Alliance in Support of the Afghan People for this two panel public event that will examine the U.S.-Afghan relationship, both its history and its future potential.
Agenda:
9:00am to 9:15am | Welcome & Introduction
9:15am to 9:35am | Keynote Address
Ambassador James F. Dobbins (TBC)
Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, U.S. Department of State
9:35am to 10:50am | Afghanistan and the United States: The Long View
Clare Lockhart
Director and Founder, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia, U.S. Department of Defense
Alex Thier
Assistant to the Administrator, U.S. Agency for International Development
Dr. Andrew Wilder, Moderator
Vice President, Center for South and Central Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
10:50am to 11:05am | Coffee Break
11:05am to 12:30pm | The Future of Media in Afghanistan
(This session will be introduced by a short film produced by VOA)
Peter Bergen
Director, National Security Program, New America Foundation
Danish Karokhel
Director, Pajhwok Afghan News
Najib Sharifi
Director, Afghan Journalists Safety Committee/Afghan Voices
David Ensor
Director, Voice of America
12. North Korea after Jang Sung Taek and the Outlook for Inter-Korean Relations
Friday, February 28 | 3:30 – 5pm
6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
The purge and execution of Jang Sung Taek was caused by the combination of a struggle over economic interests and political power as well as shortcomings of the Military-first System. While it is too early to determine what the consequences of Jang’s execution are in terms of the political stability and future policy directions of the Kim Jong Un regime, this panel will explore some possibilities, particularly in terms of inter-Korean relations.
SPEAKERS
Jinwook Choi is a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), which he joined in 1993. He was formerly KINU’s acting President and President of the Korea Association for North Korean Studies (KANKS). Dr. Choi is currently a member of various policy advisory committees of the ROK government: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Unification, Korea Communications Commission, and the National Unification Advisory Group. His research interests include North Korean politics and unification policy. Dr. Choi received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of Cincinnati in 1992.
Hazel Smith is Professor and Director of Korean Studies at the University of Central Lancashire, UK. She was previously a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Professor of Humanitarianism and Security at Cranfield University, UK, a member of the Research Committee of the UK Economic and Social Research Council and an elected fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. Her core area of research is on the economics, society, politics and international relations of North Korea. She has researched the country for over twenty years and lived and worked in North Korea for nearly two years, on secondment to UNICEF and the World Food Programme.
James F. Person is the Senior Program Associate for the History and Public Policy Program and coordinator of the North Korea International Documentation Project. Person is co-editor of the NKIDP Working Paper Series and the History and Public Policy Program Critical Oral History Conference Series and has worked as a consultant on historical documentaries. He received his Ph.D. in Modern Korean History from The George Washington University
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Things are not going well
Things are not going well in many parts of the world:
- The Syrian peace talks ended at an impasse over the agenda. The regime wants to talk terrorism. The opposition wants to talk transition. The US is looking for options.
- Ukraine’s peaceful protests are ending in an explosion of violence. Russia is financing and encouraging the government. The US is ineffectually urging restraint.
- The UN has documented crimes against humanity in North Korea. No one has the foggiest notion what to do about a regime that has now starved, tortured and murdered its citizens for more than six decades.
- Egypt is heading back to military rule. The popular General Sisi is jailing both his Muslim Brotherhood and secularist oppositions. Terrorism is on an upswing.
- Libya’s parliament has decided to overstay its mandate. A new constitution-writing assembly will be chosen in elections tomorrow, but in the meanwhile violence is on the increase and oil production down.
- Yemen’s president has short-circuited the constitutional process altogether. He announced a Federal structure that divides the South, whose secessionists reject the idea.
- Afghanistan’s President Karzai is putting at risk relations with the US, because he is trying despite the odds to negotiate a political settlement with the Taliban.
- Nationalism is heating up in Japan, South Korea and China. Decades of peace in Asia are at risk as various countries spar over ocean expanse and the resources thought to lie underneath.
- Nuclear talks with Iran are facing an uphill slog. The interim agreement is being implemented, but prospects for a comprehensive and permanent solution are dim.
- Israel/Palestine negotiations on a framework agreement seem to be going nowhere. Israel is expanding settlements and increasing its demands. Palestine is still divided (between Gaza and the West Bank) and unable to deliver even if an agreement can be reached.
For the benefit of my Balkans readers, I’ll add: Read more
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Peace Picks February 10-14
1. Iran’s Tumultuous Revolution: 35 Years Later
Monday, February 10 | 11am – 12:30pm
6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center; 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW
Presented by The Middle East Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
PARTICIPANTS
Shaul Bakhash
Clarence J. Robinson: Professor of History, George Mason University
Mehdi Khalaji
Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
John Limbert
Distinguished Professor of International Affairs, United States Naval Academy
Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderator:
Haleh Esfandiari
Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
There will be a live webcast of this event.
2. Aghanistan Development Goals: 2014 and Beyond
Monday, February 10 | 12:15pm – 1:45pm
New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW Suite 400
The drawdown of American troops in Afghanistan, together with the forming of a new Government of Afghanistan following the upcoming elections scheduled for this April, will present new challenges for the United States in how it can most effectively deliver assistance in Afghanistan.
What are the challenges and how will the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) approach them? How will USAID build on the successes it has achieved over the past ten years? Furthermore, as USAID assistance transitions to longer-term development with a focus on health, education, gender, and economic growth led by agriculture, how will the agency continue to conduct effective oversight and monitoring in an ever evolving environment to ensure that U.S. taxpayers’ funds are used effectively?
One of the people that can help address those concerns is Donald “Larry” Sampler Jr., who was recently sworn in as the Assistant to the Administrator for USAID’s Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs, officially taking over responsibility for two countries with the largest USAID budgets. Mr. Sampler will make remarks regarding these issues, which will be followed by a panel discussion to explore these and other questions further. For the discussion, Mr. Sampler will be joined by the U.S. State Department’s Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Jarrett Blanc, who works on international partnership, reconciliation, and political transition issues.
The New America Foundation is pleased to host this dialogue about the U.S. government’s development goals in Afghanistan both in 2014, a year of many transitions in the country, and beyond.
PARTICIPANTS
Donald “Larry” Sampler, Jr.
Assistant to the Administrator, Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs, U.S. Agency for International Development
Jarrett Blanc
Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, U.S. Department of State
Moderator:
Omar Samad
Senior Central Asia Fellow, New America Foundation
Former Afghan Ambassador to Canada and France
There will be a live webcast of this event here.
3. Champions for Justice: Bahrain’s Prisoners of Conscience
Hosted by Americans for Democracy and Human Rights in Bahrain and Creative Peace Initiatives
Tuesday, February 11 | 11am – 1pm
Abramson Founders Room, SIS Building, American University; 4400 Massachusetts Ave NW
To RSVP, please e-mail events@adhrb.org
PARTICIPANTS
Moderator:
Dr. Jeff Bachman, SIS Professor and Director of Ethics, Peace, and Global Affairs Program
11 – 11:30am – Q&A segment featuring:
Matar Ebrahim Matar
Political activist, Former Opposition Leader and Member of the Bahraini Parliament
11:45 – 1pm – Panel featuring:
Joshh Colangelo-Bryan, Pro Bono Attorney for Imprisoned Human Rights Activist Nabeel Raja, Consultant for Human Rights Watch
Brian Dooley, Director of Human Rights Defenders Programs at Human Rights First
Dr. Shadi Mokhtari, SIS Professor focused on Human Rights, Middle East Politics, and Political Islam
4. Understanding the Continuing Violence in Iraq
Tuesday, February 11 | 12pm
Hayek Auditorium, Cato Institute; 1000 Massachusetts Ave NW
More than three years after the departure of U.S. combat troops from Iraq, a determined insurgency rages against the government led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Violence has claimed thousands of lives. Some question whether the Iraqi government can maintain control of several major cities, including Fallujah, the scene of some of the toughest fighting during the eight-year-long U.S. war in Iraq. Some of Maliki’s critics accuse him of stoking the unrest by refusing to make concessions to minority groups in Iraq, in particular Iraq’s Sunni Arab community. Others say that the prime minister should firmly reassert his authority by going after violent extremism and deterring others from supporting the insurgency. The panelists will consider several questions, including: What explains the continuing violence in Iraq? Can Iraq’s disparate communities unite behind a strong central government? And what role, if any, should the United States play?
PARTICIPANTS
Douglas Ollivant, Senior National Security Fellow, the New America Foundation
Harith Hasan, Author of Imagining the Nation: Nationalism, Sectarianism and Socio-political Conflict in Iraq
Christopher Preble, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute
Moderated by
Justin Logan, Director of Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute.
Watch this event online at http://www.cato.org/live
Luncheon to follow this event.
5. Achieving Greater Inclusion in post-Arab Spring Countries
Tuesday, February 11 | 2pm – 3:30pm
Saul/Zilkha Rooms, Brookings Institution; 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW
The Arab Spring was about political and economic inclusiveness. Three years later, the outcomes of the revolutions have been mixed. In Morocco, the king responded by revising the constitution, carrying out free parliamentary elections and letting the winning party form a new government. In Tunisia, political parties debated on a new constitution for nearly three years and now a neutral government has been appointed to supervise elections. Meanwhile, in Egypt, the struggle between Islamists and secular-nationalists has turned violent, weakening economic growth and increasing unemployment.
On February 11, Global Economy and Development at Brookings will host a discussion on inclusive growth in the post-Arab Spring countries. The discussion will be based on a series of papers on the political economy of the Arab transitions and efforts to foster inclusive growth in the region. The papers are authored by Brookings scholars and their colleagues from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and present case studies from Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia.
PARTICIPANTS
Kemal Derviş
Vice President and Director, Global Economy and Development and The Edward M. Bernstein Scholar
Hafez Ghanem
Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development
Daniela Gressani
Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia International Monetary Fund
Akihiko Koenuma
Director-General, Middle East and Europe Department Japan International Cooperation Agency
6. Inside Aleppo: New Tools for Understanding the Syrian Conflict
Thursday, February 13 | 8:30am – 9:30am
American Security Project, 1100 New York Ave NW
REGISTER by Wednesday, February 12th
The American Security Project will host Dr. David Kilcullen and Mr. Nate Rosenblatt of Caerus Associates who will provide a briefing on findings from what may be the most detailed, publicly available assessment of the ongoing conflict in Syria to date.
Findings will be based on four months of in-depth, time-series research from within Aleppo, Syria’s largest, most diverse, and most economically relevant city. Today, Aleppo is one of the most divided cities in the country. Tomorrow, its future may resemble that of other, large, non-capital cities in post-conflict Middle Eastern states such as Libya’s Benghazi or Iraq’s Mosul.
The presentation will examine research findings that suggest that while the national picture in Syria looks bleak, important insights gained at the city-level can help policymakers and scholars think of new ways of examining the trajectory of Syria’s conflict. In addition to findings specific to Syria, the presenters will be joined by Mr. Matt McNabb of First Mile Geo, who will discuss how innovative technologies can be leveraged for collecting, visualizing, and analyzing high-fidelity data from the first mile of conflict affected parts of the world.
Moderated by Stephen A. Cheney, Brigadier General USMC (Ret.)
Breakfast snacks and refreshments will be served at 8:00am
7. Soft Power in Countering Extremism from the Horn of Africa to the Western Sahel
Thursday, February 13 | 9am – 11am
Lindner Commons (Room 602), The Elliot School of International Affairs; 1957 E Sreett NW
The rise of radical Islamism and its ideological force have migrated from Somalia in the early 1990s westward through the northern part of Africa known as the Sahel. Crises related to religious extremism, including jihadism and the application of Shar’ia law, have spread rapidly from Somalia to Kenya and across the Sahel to Nigeria, Mali and Algeria with evidence of propagating radicalizing even diaspora populations living in the West.
The panelists, all experts in the role of communication and soft power in countering radicalization, will discuss and debate the strategic influence of Western powers, in particular the US and the UK, in changing the narrative toward stability, tolerance, and democratization.
About the Panelists
Sir Robert Fry is chairman of Albany Associates and former Deputy Commanding General of Coalition Forces in Iraq of the Royal Marines. He is involved in a number of boards and advisory roles to companies in the security and banking sectors throughout Europe, North America, and the Middle East. Currently, he is a visiting professor at Reading University and a visiting fellow at Oxford University.
Simon Haselock is co-founder and chief operating officer of Albany Associates. From 1995-96, he served as the NATO spokesman in Sarajevo and later as Media Commissioner in Kosovo. He went on to lead the Foreign and Commonwealth Office for Media Development in Iraq.
Alberto Fernandez is the coordinator of the Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications at the U.S. State Department. Previously, he served as U.S. ambassador to Equatorial Guinea and chargé d’affaires to Sudan. His other posts include senior level public diplomacy positions at the embassies in Afghanistan, Jordan, and Syria. A veteran of the U.S. Army, Fernandez speaks fluent Spanish and Arabic through his training at the Defense Language Institute.
Todd Haskell is the director for Press and Public Diplomacy in the Bureau of African Affairs at the State Department. Previously, he served as a Public Affairs Officer in Santo Domingo, Johannesburg, and Ouagadougou. Other overseas assignments include Pakistan, the Philippines, Israel, and Mexico. He is a graduate of Georgetown University.
8. A Mixed Picture: the Political and Economic Future of the Arab Transitions
Thursday, February 13 | 3:30pm – 5pm
12th Floor, Atlantic Council; 1030 15th Street NW
The last few tumultuous years in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen present a complex picture of progress and setbacks. Three years after Egyptians successfully toppled a thirty-year old dictatorship, there are fears of a return to military-backed rule. In contrast to the bleaker picture from Cairo, Tunisians have successfully navigated political deadlock and approved a new constitution. Yemenis have concluded an inclusive National Dialogue process, and Libyans are gearing up to elect a constitution-drafting body and initiate their own national dialogue. While there are significant challenges ahead and security issues are paramount, citizens of all four countries are unlikely to continue to tolerate the corruption, mismanagement, and exclusion that characterized the pre-revolution era. Given this dynamic, what are we likely to see in the next few years?
Lina Khatib will describe key political trends that will shape the next phase of these transitions and Mohsin Khan will discuss the economic state of affairs and how these economies will fare moving forward. Placing the Arab awakening within the global context, Ellen Laipson will compare the Arab transitions to other previous cases of political and social upheaval.
This event also marks the release of two major Hariri Center publications: Mohsin Khan‘s Issue Brief, “The Economic Consequences of the Arab Spring,” and a report on “The State of the Arab Transitions” by Mirette F. Mabrouk and Stefanie Hausheer.
PARTICIPANTS
Lina Khatib
Director
Carnegie Middle East Center
Ellen Laipson
President and CEO
Stimson Center
Mohsin Khan
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
Moderated by
Mirette F. Mabrouk
Deputy Director for Regional Programs, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
Please use the West Tower elevators when you arrive.
The event will be followed by a wine & cheese reception.
A live webcast of the event can be seen here.
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Peace Picks, February 3-7
Relatively few events this week, as the nation’s capital thaws from the deep freeze:
1. Peace and Stability in Afghanistan Post-2014: What Role for Regional Actors?
Tuesday, February 4 | 2pm – 3:30pm
Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor
The peaceful future of Afghanistan is intertwined with the peaceful future of the region even more so once the withdrawal of International Security Assistance Forces from Afghanistan will be completed by the end of 2014. The country’s direct and regional neighbors will have the honor and responsibility to support Afghanistan’s quest for independent, secure, and prosperous development.
In 2012, the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) established a network of policy groups in Afghanistan, Central Asia, India, and Pakistan for a regional project entitled “Envisioning a Secure and Independent Afghanistan Post 2014. Perspectives and Strategies for Constructive Conflict Resolution from the Neighborhood.”
SPEAKERS
Sarah Hees
Regional Coordinator Peace and Security Policy
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Mahmoud Saikal
Convener
Afghanistan Policy Group
Moderated by
Shuja Nawaz
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council
Khalid Aziz, Convener, Pakistan Policy Group; Ashok Mehta, Convener, India Policy Group; Sanat Kushkumbayev, Convener (Kazakhstan), Central Asia Policy Group; and Haron Amin, Facilitator, Afghanistan Policy Group will also join the discussion.
Please use the West Tower elevators when you arrive.
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L’état c’est le soldat
Georgetown University’s conference on Egypt and the Struggle for Democracy included a final panel discussion on “Restoration of Democracy and the Rule of Law in Egypt: The Roles of Pro-Democracy Groups and the International Community” featuring Abdul Mawgoud Dardery (former Freedom and Justice Party member of Parliament), Nathan Brown (George Washington University), Dalia Mogahed (CEO, Mogahed Consulting), and Emad Shahin (American Univesty in Cairo). Tamara Sonn (College of William & Mary) moderated.
Abdul Mawgoud Dardery: Egyptians have been suffering for decades living under a police state. In order to understand current events, it is crucial to understand the historical context. During the revolution, Egyptians were against Mubarak and also the entire system. On February 11, 2011, Mubarak fell, but the system did not.
The March 19 referendum was the first challenge to the revolution. It moved the country from a revolutionary mode to a reform agenda. The referendum put Egypt on the course of formal democracy, which is long and gradual. Some political actors thought siding with the military was an easier, faster way to move forward.
Morsi ruled with a nationally unified government, but the challenges it faced were tremendous. Forces of the old regime were still in place: the military, police, judiciary, and state bureaucracy. Some say Morsi failed. He was made to fail. In spite of this, Egyptians were pleased because they lived in a democracy where they were able to move and hold meetings freely. Read more
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The Cory Remsburg metaphor
The President’s State of the Union speech last night broke little new ground on foreign policy. He is pleased to be finishing two wars and will resist getting the United States involved in other open-ended conflicts. He may leave a few troops in Afghanistan to train Afghans and attack terrorists. Al Qaeda central is largely defeated but its franchises are spreading in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq and Mali. He will limit the use of drones, reform surveillance policies and get us off a permanent war footing. He wants to close Guantanamo, as always, and fix immigration, as always.
He will use diplomacy, especially in trying to block Iran verifiably from obtaining a nuclear weapons and in resolving the Israel/Palestine conflict, but also in destroying Syria’s chemical weapons capability. He will support the moderate Syrian opposition. He will veto new Iran sanctions in order to give diplomacy a chance to work, maintain the alliance with Europe, support democracy in Ukraine, development in Africa, and trade and investment across the Pacific. America is exceptional both because of what it does and because of its ideals.
The President didn’t mention Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Russia or Japan. He skipped North Korea too. His mother must have taught him that when you don’t have anything nice to say you shouldn’t say anything at all. Those countries might merit mention, but all have in one way or another been doing things that we prefer they not do. He mentioned China, but only as an economic rival, not a military one. He skipped the pivot to Asia as well as Latin America. For my Balkans readers: you are not even on his screen. Read more
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