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Coupkoo

With the army’s seizure of power today, Egypt has swerved again in a revolutionary trajectory that has already passed through too many phases and directions to recall.  I had imagined that the army, opposition and Muslim Brotherhood might reach a last-minute agreement.  It was not to be.  President Morsi is apparently in military custody.

No matter how distasteful and incompetent the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood, I find it hard to celebrate a military coup, popular though it may be.  The Egyptian army took over when Hosni Mubarak fell in February 2011 and made a hash of governing for the next 16 months, until Morsi was inaugurated a year ago.  He was correct in claiming legitimacy derived from democratic election.  But he lost popular support as security, the economy and social conditions deteriorated.  He also failed to maintain his initial truce with the army, which was reportedly offended in particular by his advocacy of jihad by Egyptians against Syria’s Bashar al Asad. Read more

Egypt is in play

The Guardian this morning reports:

Morsi offered a series of concessions in a four-hour meeting with General Abdul Fatah al-Sisi on Tuesday, a Muslim Brotherhood source told the Guardian’s David Hearst.

All the concession were rejected, the source said. David writes:

With the caveat that this is information which can not be cross-checked with the other parties to the discussion, my understanding is that President Morsi offered the following political concessions:

The formation of a national government representing all parties

The formation of a neutral committee to change the constitution

A call on the constitutional council to speed up the law on parliamentary elections.

A new attorney general (he has already gone)

Obliques hints that if a plan was put to him to hold a referendum on his presidency, he would agree to it.

This package was rejected.

There are key differences between the opposition and Morsi on the way forward. The opposition now insists that Morsi has first to resign; that the constitution and the upper house of parliament are suspended; that revolutionary courts are established; and that a presidential council be established pending fresh elections.

The exchange shows where a political compromise may lie if the principle of not toppling a democratically elected president is upheld.

The key issue here is Morsi’s resignation.  He intends to hold on to his position as the democratically elected and legitimate president.  Some of those who want to see democracy in Egypt agree that his removal by the military or street demonstrations would be a terrible precedent. Read more

Tick tock

The 48-hour Egyptian army ultimatum expires tomorrow .  The military seems to have no intention of removing President Morsi, which would generate a destabilizing Muslim Brotherhood backlash.  Instead the army says failure of the politicians to reach an agreement would require the military to impose a road map for future elections, presumably including an early presidential poll.  This would be a soft coup.  A good part of Morsi’s opposition would welcome an army-imposed road map so long as they could expect it to lead to the end of his presidency.  The Cairo stock market rise yesterday suggests the idea is popular also in the business community. Read more

Ultimatum

In an extraordinary move, the Egyptian army today gave President Morsi a supposedly final warning:

The Armed Forces put everyone on notice that if the demands of the people are not realized in the given time period [48 hours], it will be obliged by its patriotic and historic responsibilities and by its respect for the demands of the great Egyptian people to announce a road map for the future and the steps for overseeing its implementation, with participation of all patriotic and sincere parties and movements — including the youth, who set off the glorious revolution and continue to do so — without excluding anyone.

Ten ministers and several other officials are said to have offered resignations. Read more

Befuddled

Yesterday’s giant demonstrations against Egypt’s President Morsi sent him an unequivocal message:  “leave.”  Security forces and violence were mostly absent, though my Twitterfeed suggests there was sexual violence in Tahrir.  Several Muslim Brotherhood/Freedom and Justice Party facilities were attacked, some with deadly consequences.  But the day went about as well as anyone could have hoped.

Now what?  Morsi shows no sign of departing.  It is not clear who would take over if he did.  The army seems unwilling.  It did a lousy job when it took over after Hosni Mubarak’s fall.  So far as I can tell, there is no vice president under the current constitution, which provides: Read more