Tag: Egypt
Diminishing returns
Secretary Kerry is getting a lot of ink today for his meetings in Egypt. He is pushing hard for the economic moves that will make available $4.8 billion from the International Monetary Fund.
Here is what April 6 Movement leader Ahmed Maher, who did not meet with the Secretary, had to say:
Because Eng. Ahmed Maher (the founder and the leader of April 6 movement) couldn’t met with Secretary Kerry yesterday, and didn’t listen to him, also to any representative from youth movements in the meeting, so we send this points to deliver our message
1. April 6 Movement supported Morsi in the presidential election after his promises to all revolutionary movements and political figures about compromise and constitutions and collation government and electoral law
And now we received a lot of criticism from the people for supporting Morsi
April 6 movement helping provide Morsi’s margin on victory (51%)
2. Violence v. Police Reform
April 6 movement demands its members stick to non-violent protest tactics.
US sold 140,000 rounds of teargas to Egypt to be used against us. Shouldn’t the US point out how that money could be better spent on improving the economy? How does this help?
MOI must stop retaliating: They shoot unarmed protestors. They throw rocks from the tops of buildings (attempted murder). This brings more protesters.
Torture, children in prison, beatings, sexual assault, disappearances.
Police: No justice. No accountability. No DIGNITY. Morsi needs to understand that when the police strip and beat a man on live TV it drives more people to the streets.
Every Egyptian with a smart phone is both a journalist and human rights watchdog.
Morsi must reign in the police and security forces. Minister of Interior was appointed by Morsi – blaming Mubarak won’t work.
3. Anti-NGO Law
Morsi’s on words as FJP Chair, December 2011:
“… The FJP supports immediate lifting of restrictions on the establishment and registration of NGOs, so interested groups can work legally and transparently…indeed, Egypt needs the support of NGOs especially in the areas of human development, education, technology transfer and public administration.”
Hypocrisy: Human Rights NGOs fought Mubarak for rights of M[uslim] B[rotherhood] prisoners
Hypocrisy: Human Rights Watch fighting for rights of MB detained in UAE
Hypocrisy: Morsi wants foreign investment, but they deny foreign investment in NGOs.
Hypocrisy: The largest illegal, unregistered NGO in Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood
And also Hypocrisy: US abandoned its own NGO workers in Egypt – 13 Egyptians on trial again March 6
This anti-NGO law is designed to shut us down.
4. Elections
Are they constitutional? Courts struck down parts of the law; Shura never went back to the courts. Why can’t Morsi make sure the law is legal before we spend millions on another election that may be thrown out? Would not that make sense?
International Election Observers (NGOs). The anti-NGO law would prevent them from being in Egypt. In 2011 they raided two of the certified Election Observer NGOs and charged them with felonies.
Rising prices, bad economy, torture, arrests, fatwas, broken promises, NGO crackdown, bad election laws… how well do you think elections will go?
April 6 Youth Movement will not stop until we have bread, freedom and social justice… and DIGNITY.
– US must make human rights THE priority.
– Relations must be more than just Israel… human rights & dignity leads to stability leads to democracy… peace depends on this.
– The agenda must not be only regional security — it must be a DIGNITY agenda.
Two things strike me. First, the April 6 statement completely ignores the economic situation, which is what Kerry has focused on. The Egyptian economy is going down the tubes, which is a real threat to the welfare of most of the population. It is not wise for April 6 to completely ignore issues that will preoccupy most Egyptians.
Second, the April 6 focus on human rights is not mistaken. President Morsi has taken an authoritarian turn. The security forces are misbehaving (as they did under Hosni Mubarak), nongovernmental organizations are under pressure and conditions for the parliamentary elections scheduled to start in April are non-ideal (though an American NGO is recruiting international election observers, contrary to the April 6 statement).
April 6 obviously thinks the Secretary is soft-pedaling human rights because of concern about Egypt’s commitment to the peace treaty with Israel. They may well be correct. But there is no fundamental incompatibility between the rights-focused agenda April 6 wants and the economy-focused agenda the Secretary is pushing. It is a shame they did not meet and talk this out. These two ships should not have passed in the night.
The deeper issue is that there are a lot of people in Egypt who believe the reforms the IMF requires will put the burden of economic adjustment in Egypt on the poor. Dignity requires not only respect for human rights but also a measure of social justice. Morsi may well follow Mubarak’s example not only in political repression but also in economic policy.
That said, the big political issue is whether the Egyptian opposition will participate in the spring elections. The National Salvation Front, which unites a good part of the more liberal opposition in Egypt, has announced a boycott. This is a serious error, as it will exclude them from the parliament for the next five years. If they want human rights and social justice, the Egyptian opposition will need to find better ways to express themselves than street demonstrations, which have reached the point of diminishing returns. Even a small number of parliamentary seats could give them substantial influence.
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Peace Picks: February 25 to March 1
A relatively quiet but high quality week:
1. Al Qaeda in the United States
Date and Time: February 26 2013, 10-11 am
Address: Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
B1 Conference Center
Speakers: Michael Hayden, Robin Simcox, Stephanie Sanok
Description: In recent years, several individuals from a wide variety of backgrounds have attempted to attack the United States on behalf of al-Qaeda. These individuals have defied easy categorization, creating challenges for intelligence, law enforcement, and other agencies tasked with countering their activities. However, with the publication of ‘Al-Qaeda in the United States’, the Henry Jackson Society seeks to provide new insights into the al-Qaeda movement and its U.S. operations by rigorously analyzing those involved or affiliated with the organization. Please join CSIS and the Henry Jackson Society on February 26 for an on-the-record discussion of this new report and the nature of al-Qaeda-related terrorism in the United States.
Register for this event here: http://csis.org/event/al-qaeda-united-states
2. The United States, India and Pakistan: To the Brink and Back
Date and Time: February 26, 2013, 2-3 pm
Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC
Speaker: Bruce Riedel
Description: India and Pakistan are among the most important countries in the 21st century. The two nations share a common heritage, but their relationship remains tenuous. The nuclear rivals have waged four wars against each other and have gone to the brink of war several times. While India is already the world’s largest democracy and will soon become the planet’s most populous nation, Pakistan has a troubled history of military coups and dictators, and has harbored terrorists such as Osama bin Laden. In his new book, Avoiding Armageddon: America, India and Pakistan to the Brink and Back (Brookings, 2013), Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel, director of Brookings Intelligence Project, clearly explains the challenge and importance of successfully managing America’s affairs with these two emerging powers while navigating their toxic relationship.
Based on extensive research and his experience advising four U.S. presidents on the region, Riedel reviews the history of American diplomacy in South Asia, the conflicts that have flared in recent years and the prospects for future crisis. Riedel provides an in-depth look at the Mumbai terrorist attack in 2008—the worst terrorist outrage since 9/11—and concludes with authoritative analysis on what the future is likely to hold for the United States and South Asia, offering concrete recommendations for Washington’s policymakers.
On February 26, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host an event marking the release of Avoiding Armageddon. Bruce Riedel will discuss the history and future of U.S. relations with India and Pakistan and options for avoiding future conflagration in the region. Senior Fellow Tamara Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks, and Tina Brown, editor-in-chief of The Daily Beast and Newsweek, will lead the discussion.
3. Democrats, Liberals, the Left and the Arab-Israeli Conflict
Date and Time: February 27 2013, 12 pm.
Address: Georgetown University
37 St NW and O St NW, Washington, DC
Edward B. Bunn, S.J. Intercultural Center CCAS Boardroom, 241
Speaker: Jonathan Rynhold
Description: Prof. Jonathan Rynhold (George Washington University) will present his analysis of the various grand strategies of Democrats, Liberals, and the Left towards the Middle East, as well as elite discourse and public attitudes towards the conflict. He explains the trend towards increasing criticism of Israel and increasing preference for a neutral approach to the conflict. Prof. Rynhold argues this is not simply to do with changes in Israeli policy but deeper changes within the Democratic Party and among liberals in their attitudes to foreign policy and politics in general.
Register for this event here: http://events.georgetown.edu/events/index.cfm?Action=View&CalendarID=349&EventID=101111
4. The Resistible Rise of Islamists?
Date and Time: February 27 2013, 12-1:30 pm
Address: Woodrow Wilson Center
1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Moushira Khattab and Marina Ottaway
Description: Some call it the Islamist winter while others talk of revolution betrayed. Neither claim portrays accurately what is happening in Arab countries in the throes of popular uprisings and rapid political change. The rise of Islamist parties in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings took most by surprise, including in some cases the Islamist parties themselves, which were more successful than they dared to hope. Coupled with the disarray of the secular opposition, the success of Islamist parties augurs poorly for democracy, because a strong, competitive opposition is the only guarantee against the emergence of a new authoritarianism.
Register for this event here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-resistible-rise-the-islamists
5. Economic Effects of the Arab Spring: Policy Failures and Mounting Challenges
Date and Time: February 28 2013, 12-1 pm.
Address: Middle East Institute
1761 N Street
Speakers: Dr. Zubair Iqbal and Dr. Lorenzo L. Perez
Description: The Middle East Institute is proud to host economists Dr. Zubair Iqbal and Dr. LorenzoPérez for an examination of the economic impact of the upheavals affecting Arab Spring countries, including Egypt and Tunisia. Since the 2011 uprisings, growth in the MENA region has slowed, inequality worsened, and unemployment increased, thus weakening the popular support needed for new governments to introduce difficult, but necessary, economic reforms. The speakers will address the reasons for the inadequate reforms taken by these new governments and the economic consequences of an unchanged policy environment. By focusing on developments in Egypt, they will highlight the economic challenges posed by recent events, strategies to address them and what role the international community can play in helping stabilize Arab economies.
Register for this event here: https://www.mei.edu/civicrm/event/register?id=300&reset=1
6. No One Saw It Coming: Civil Resistance, the Arab Spring and the Conflicts That Will Shape the Future
Date and Time: February 28, 5:30 pm
Address: Johns Hopkins/SAIS, 1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC
Speaker: Peter Ackerman, Founding Chair, International Center for Nonviolent Conflict
Register here.
7. The 2013 Annual Kuwait Chair Lecture: US Military Intervention in Iraq: Cost and Consequences
Date and Time: February 28 2013, 6:30-7:45 pm
Address: Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052
Harry Harding Auditorium
Speaker: Ambassador Edward W. (Skip) Gnehm Jr.
Description: Ambassador Edward W. (Skip) Gnehm, Jr., Kuwait Professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Affairs, GW
The final convoy of U.S. combat forces withdrew from Iraq in December 2011, but the U.S. military intervention produced transformative effects that continue to reverberate in Iraq and throughout the region. On the 10 year anniversary of the U.S. intervention, Ambassador Gnehm will reflect on the costs and consequences of that action on the U.S., Iraq, specifically, and the Middle East, more broadly.
Register for this event here: https://docs.google.com/a/aucegypt.edu/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dEJIbXNYazRvODZyakN2aGJTNEFkUFE6MQ
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Peace Picks: February 11-15
Mid-winter is a good time to be indoors with the policy wonks:
1. Elections and Politics in North Africa—A Panel Discussion
Date and Time: February 11 / 12:00pm – 2:00pm
Address: Elliott School of International Affairs
1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052
Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Ellen Lust, Lindsay Benstead, Matthew Buehler, Marc Lynch
Description: Three leading political scientists will discuss elections in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt.
Register for this event here: https://docs.google.com/a/aucegypt.edu/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dGRVSlNPbG1QNUtfX3djYzg4cW9reXc6MQ
2. The Role of Azerbaijan’s Post-Conflict Narrative in Limiting Refugees’ and IDPs’ Integration into Mainstream Society
Date and Time: February 11 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm
Address: Woodrow Wilson Center
1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speaker: Jennifer S. Wistrand
Description: Nagorno Karabakh is often referred to as one of the former Soviet Union’s “frozen conflicts” with little explanation of how the conflict “froze” or might “thaw.” Jennifer S. Wistrand, Title VIII-Supported Research Scholar, Kennan Institute draws upon twenty-two months of ethnographic fieldwork conducted in Azerbaijan, shedding light on some of the socio-cultural factors impeding both the peaceful resolution of the status of the region on a geopolitical level and the “successful” integration of Azerbaijan’s refugees and IDPs into mainstream society. Particular attention will be paid to the long-term socio-economic and mental health consequences of not resolving the status quo, especially for refugee and IDP youth.
Register for this event here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-role-azerbaijan’s-post-conflict-national-narrative-limiting-refugees’-and-idps’
3. Training for War and Fragile Peace
Date and Time: February 12 / 2:00pm – 3:30pm
Address: Reserve Officers Association
1 Constitution Ave NE Washington, DC
Speakers: Bob Feidler, Paul Hughes, Ferdinand Irizarry II, Lauren Van Metre
Description: With the U.S. Army taking on an advising and mentoring role in Afghanistan as Afghan security forces take the lead, U.S. troops are taking on fundamentally different missions than those for which they were trained. How can we best prepare the military for these operations in fragile states? Should the military do security force assistance differently in fragile states as opposed to developing states? Please join the Reserve Officers Association and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) for a program that will explore new education and training approaches used to help U.S. troops better prepare for these complex operating environments. Brigadier General Ferdinand Irizarry II, deputy commanding general of the U.S. Army’s John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School, will provide an inside look into how the military is adapting their training to prepare for the new mission in places like Afghanistan. Dr. Lauren Van Metre, dean of students in USIP’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding, will discuss USIP’s efforts to help the military address these challenges. Having recently been called on to work with a unit of the 101st Airborne that will deploy to Afghanistan to develop a specialized education program, Dr. Van Metre will talk about programs with the military, which emphasize USIP’s conflict management work at the community level with an in-depth understanding of the local Afghan context.
Register for this event here: http://www.usip.org/events/training-war-and-fragile-peace
4. Deterring Hezbollah: Lessons from Israel’s 30-Year War
Date and Time: February 13 / 12:00pm
Address: Georgetown University
37 St NW and O St NW, Washington, DC
Copley Hall Copley Formal Lounge
Description: Israel and the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah have been at war for 30 years. Over the course of those three decades, Israel has relied on deterrence as a central strategy in coping with the Hezbollah threat. Has this strategy succeeded? What is the future of the Islamist-Israeli Conflict as Islamists gain power throughout the Middle East? What lessons can be drawn from the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict for states engaged in asymmetric warfare in the 21st Century?
Register for this event here: http://events.georgetown.edu/events/index.cfm?Action=View&CalendarID=349&EventID=101269
5. Evaluating Legal and Political Reform in Burma
Date and Time: February 13 / 3:30pm – 5:00pm
Address: Heritage Foundation
214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, D.C. 20002
Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Frank Jannuzi, Tom Malinowski, Jared Genser
Description: The ongoing war between the Burmese government and Kachin is a stark reminder that reforms in Burma are far from complete. How exactly is Burma doing in its political reform process? American officials and key figures in Congress have stressed that reform there is not irreversible. What are the prospects for reform continuing and becoming institutionalized? What are the prospects for backtracking? And is the U.S. policy of broad engagement properly calibrated and flexible enough to respond appropriately to set backs? Does Congress still have a role in setting policy? Our eminently qualified panelists will address these questions and many more as they evaluate political and legal reform in Burma.
Register for this event here: http://www.heritage.org/events/2013/02/burma
6. Schieffer Series: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama’s Second Term
Date and Time: February 13 / 5:30pm – 6:30pm
Address: Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Bob Schieffer, David Ignatius, Thomas L. Friedman, Margaret Brennan
Description: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and TCU’s Schieffer School of Journalism invite you to the next session of The CSIS-Schieffer Series Dialogues
Register for this event here: http://csis.org/event/schieffer-series-foreign-policy-challenges-president-obamas-second-term
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Copts at risk
With the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power, the fate of Egypt’s non-Muslim minorities, especially the substantial Coptic minority, is uncertain. This week the Institute of World Politics discussed “The Rise of Islamists: The Challenges to Egypt’s Copts.” Samuel Tadros and Nina Shea discussed discrimination against Copts in pre-revolutionary and post-revolutionary Egypt as well as the future perils, as manifested by the experiences of other religious minorities in the region.
Samuel Tadros, Research Fellow at the Center for Religious Freedom of the Hudson Institute, is an Egyptian Copt. He focused on the situation within Egypt, where in the Mubarak era the interaction of four factors ensured discrimination against Copts:
- the Egyptian state, while claiming to protect minorities, treated the Copts as a collective rather than as equal citizens;
- the Islamists viewed Copts as a challenge to Egyptian identity;
- the Egyptian religious establishment;
- society at large.
Post-revolution, exclusion from positions of authority in the police, the army, and intelligence service has continued. New factors include collapse of the state, which has removed constraints on anti-Copt behavior, the rise of emboldened Islamists, the filing in court of blasphemy cases, and an increase in attacks on Christians. The country’s new constitution, with its many loopholes and Sharia-based limitations to freedoms, will make religious minorities worse off than before. Tadros concluded his discussion:
It is not Christians as individuals who are being attacked. It is any manifestation of Christianity.
Nina Shea, Director of the Center for Religious Freedom of the Hudson Institute, focused her attention on discrimination against religious minorities and sectarian-related violence in the region. The situation is not just a human rights issue but also a security issue. The Islamists could pose additional security threats to the region if members of Al Qaeda find a place among radical Salafis. Shea also said:
If Copts disappear, the region will be Islamized for the first time in history.
In her view, it is the responsibility of the US government to ensure the well-being of religious minorities. It should halt its military aid to Egypt until it can ensure that no massacres like the Maspero killing of Christian protestors by the military forces in 2011 will occur again. Shea thought there might be systematic violence against the Copts, suggesting that another Iraq may develop in Egypt and that the Copts might even “disappear.” Any sectarian strife in Egypt would destabilize the country and have spill-over effects throughout an already turbulent region. Tadros thought that genocide would not occur but that mass emigration may take place. A Coptic exodus would undermine pluralism in the Middle East.
It went unremarked, but is important to note, that the Islamists are not only a threat to the Coptic community. They also represent a threat to Muslims who have different interpretations of Islam or seek to incorporate Islamic norms with non-Islamic ones. Egypt’s Islamists seek to monopolize the right of interpreting and defining what is and what is not Islamic. Their rise is not only a threat to a certain community or group of Egyptians, but rather to Egyptian identity as developed over more than 7,000 years of history.
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Peace picks this week
1. The Nuclear Issue: Why is Iran Negotiating?
Date and Time: January 28, 9 am-11 pm
Address: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Michael Adler, Bijan Khajehpour, and Alireza Nader
Description: Three top experts in the field will discuss Iran’s domestic, foreign policy, and nuclear challenges.
Register for this event here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-nuclear-issue-why-iran-negotiating
2. America’s Quest for Arab-Israeli Peace: POSTPONED
Date and Time: January 28, 11 am-1 pm
Address: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Daniel Kurtzer, William Quandt, Shibley Telhami, and Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen
Description: As President Barack Obama is sworn in for his second term, and in the wake of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reelection, many warn that time is running out for the two-state solution. On the occasion of its publication, David Ignatius will join three of the authors of ‘The Peace Puzzle: America’s Quest for Arab-Israeli Peace’ and USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen to discuss their own views on whether and why that door is closing, and what the next Obama administration can do to keep it open. ’The Peace Puzzle’ was written by Daniel C. Kurtzer, Scott B. Lasensky, William B. Quandt, Steven L. Spiegel, and Shibley Z. Telhami and co-published by USIP Press and Cornell University Press. It offers a uniquely objective account and assessment of the American role in the peace process over the last two decades, concluding with 11 recommendations for the next administration to strengthen its role in resolving the conflict. While the tone of the book remains optimistic, the authors question whether the ‘determined, persistent, creative, and wise’ American diplomacy and leadership that have ushered in breakthroughs in the past can be recaptured and whether the lessons learned from two decades of failures will be embraced. Please join us for this discussion with David Ignatius on the prospects for a breakthrough in the peace process and the lessons offered in ‘The Peace Puzzle.’
Register for this event: http://www.usip.org/events/americas-quest-arab-israeli-peace
This event will be webcast live beginning at 11:00am on January 28, 2013 at www.usip.org/webcast.
3. The Rise of Islamists: Challenges to Egypt’s Copts
Date and Time: January 28, 4:30pm – 6:00pm
Address: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW Washington, DC
Speakers: Nina Shea (Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Religious Freedom Hudson Institute) and Samuel Tadros (Research Fellow, Center for Religious Freedom Hudson Institute)
Description: This event is sponsored by IWP’s Center for Culture and Security. An international human-rights lawyer for over thirty years, Nina Shea joined Hudson Institute as a Senior Fellow in November 2006, where she directs the Center for Religious Freedom. Shea has served as a Commissioner on the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom for 13 years. Her many writings include widely-acclaimed reports on Saudi Arabia’s curriculum of hatred and the book Silenced: How Apostasy & Blasphemy Codes are Choking Freedom Worldwide (Oxford University Press, 2011). She co-authored the forthcoming book, Persecuted: The Global Assault on Christians (Thomas Nelson, March 2013). Samuel Tadros is a Research Fellow at Hudson Institute’s Center for Religious Freedom and a Professorial Lecturer at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. Prior to joining Hudson in 2011, Tadros was a Senior Partner at the Egyptian Union of Liberal Youth, an organization that aims to spread the ideas of classical liberalism in Egypt. His many articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, National Review, World Affairs, and the Weekly Standard. He is the author of the forthcoming book: Motherland Lost: The Egyptian and Coptic Quest for Modernity.
Register for this event here: http://iwp.edu/events/detail/the-rise-of-islamists-challenges-to-egypts-copts
4. Legal and Political Reforms in Saudi Arabia
Date and Time: January 29, 12:00 to 1:00 pm
Address: Middle East Institute, Boardman Room 1761 N Street, NW, Washington D.C. 20036
Speaker: Dr. Joseph A. Kéchichian
Moderator: Kate Seelye
Description: At a time when many wonder how the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will adapt to challenging regional crises, confront exacerbating internal problems, and manage sensitive ties with leading world powers, Riyadh is on the docket to also ensure a smooth royal succession. Critics of the Kingdom’s reform policies allege that Riyadh is ill-suited to face the massive social, economic and political challenges it faces, some even anticipating its total collapse. Joseph A. Kéchichian argues, however, that serious reforms are under way, including changes in the judicial sector, a genuine “National Dialogue,” and an inclination within the royal family to expand the boundaries of political debate. Kéchichian will also examine relations between the Al Sa’ud and the conservative clerical establishment, and offer an assessment of the legacy of King ‘Abdallah bin ‘Abdul ‘Aziz as prospects for a passing of power to a new generation become clearer.
Register for this event here: https://www.mei.edu/civicrm/event/info?reset=1&id=295
5. Al Qaeda Country: Why Mali is Important
Date and Time: January 29, 2013 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM
Address: Lindner Family Commons, Room 602 1957 E Street, NW
Speakers: Peter Chilson (Associate Professor of English, Washington State University ) and David Rain (Associate Professor of Geography and International Affairs, George Washington University)
Description: Prizewinning author Peter Chilson is one of the few Westerners to travel to the Mali conflict zone. There he found a hazy dividing line between the demoralized remnants of the former regime in the south and the new statelet in the north – Azawad – formed when a rebellion by the country’s ethnic Tuareg minority as commandeered by jihadi fighters. In this inaugural lecture of the African Research and Policy Group of the Institute for Global and International Studies, Chilson will lay out the lines of conflicting interest in Mali as some of the world’s great forces take notice. He is the author of the recent book, We Never Knew Exactly Where: Dispatches from the Lost Country of Mali.
Register for this event here: https://docs.google.com/a/aucegypt.edu/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dGQ3bHk0eW5SSHNDSzRpUHdrQ0tieUE6MQ
6. Should the United States Save Syria?
Date and Time: January 30, 5:00pm – 6:30pm
Address: The U.S. Navy Memorial Burke Theater
701 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Robert Kagan (Brookings Institution), Leon Wieseltier (The New Republic), Joshua Landis (University of Oklahoma), Aaron David Miller (The Wilson Center)
Moderator: Elise Labott (CNN)
Description: In the best American tradition of open inquiry, spirited discussion and practical action, the McCain Institute is introducing a series of structured, reasoned foreign policy debates aimed at developing practical policy options. The debates will include seasoned experts and practitioners of varying affiliations and perspectives. They will be distinctly non-partisan, aiming to look forward at future policy choices, not to look backward to criticize. Audience participation is strenuously encouraged.
Register for this event here: http://mccaininstitute.org/events/mccain-debate-and-decision-series2
7. After the Jordan Elections: Challenges Ahead for the Hashemite Kingdom
Date and Time: February 1, 12:00-1:00 pm
Address: Middle East Institute, Boardman Room 1761 N Street, NW, Washington D.C. 20036
Speakers: Leslie Campbell and Danya Greenfield
Moderator: Kate Seelye
Description: The Middle East Institute is proud to host Leslie Campbell, senior associate and regional director for the Middle East, and Danya Greenfield, deputy director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council, for an assessment of the Jordanian elections and an examination of the political challenges ahead for Jordan’s King Abdullah II. Both Campbell and Greenfield monitored the parliamentary elections on January 23rd and return to Washington from Amman with fresh insights about the implications of Jordan’s democratic reform efforts and the pressures faced by King Abdullah II as he seeks to address growing frustration with his rule.
Register for this event here: After the Jordan Elections: Challenges Ahead for the Hashemite Kingdom | Middle East Institute.
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Egypt off course, again
Unrest in Egypt on the January 25 second anniversary of the revolution that overthrew Hosni Mubarak was easy to predict. Many who supported the revolution are disappointed with the results, the economy is in a tailspin and President Morsi is proving himself more autocrat than democrat. But what happened Saturday is nuts.
Friday the protests were pretty much as expected: large and marred by clashes with the security forces. Saturday was far worse, especially in Port Said. A judge (sitting in Cairo) sentenced 21 of its al Masri football fans to death for an incident last February in which 74 people died in a clash with fans of Cairo’s al Ahli. The rioting Saturday in Port Said took at least two dozen more lives. Unrest is continuing this morning. The soccer clubs and their fans are protagonists in both the Egyptian revolution and tensions between the periphery and Cairo.
Egypt’s secularist/liberal National Salvation Front is now threatening to boycott elections unless five demands are met:
- A neutral investigation of the violence.
- Immediate amendment of the constitution.
- Formation of a new “national salvation” government.
- An end to President Morsi’s attacks on the judiciary.
- Clear legal status for the Muslim Brotherhood.
These may all be perfectly reasonable things to ask for, but to link participation in the elections to their immediate fulfillment is not. The April parliamentary elections, to quote myself, are
the secularist liberals’ last, best chance of gaining political traction for the next four years. If they fail, as seems likely, Egypt will experiment with a constitution that leaves a lot of room for Islamist maneuvering in a society that is more interested in economic results than theocratic correctness.
With failure likely, it is understandable that the opposition might prefer to sit out the elections, but it would be unwise. Even a relatively small minority position in parliament will provide a channel through which to counter Morsi’s worst instincts. Trying to do so exclusively through street demonstrations won’t work for long. Egyptians are tired of disorder and want a return to stability. Morsi will have little problem repressing an extra-parliamentary opposition if he aligns himself with the “party of the couch” (aka the silent majority) in imposing law and order. Most Egyptians don’t want, and can’t afford, continuing disorder.
The National Defense Council is calling for a “national dialogue” and considering a curfew. Morsi has more than once tried to convene national dialogues (in place of any meaningful change of direction), which the opposition generally boycotts. This time there is a suggestion that neutral figures will do the convening. Are there any left? Egypt is now thoroughly polarized along many different axes: religious/secular, Muslim Brotherhood/Salafists, center/periphery, revolution/old regime remnants, young/old, rich/poor, Muslim/non-Muslim, urban/rural. Not to mention al Ahli/al Masri.
If dialogue fails, as it has repeatedly in the past, Morsi will no doubt try to use the security forces to impose order. That may succeed, but the outcome is far less likely to be democratic.
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