Tag: Egypt
This week’s peace picks
There are many interesting events this week to shake us out of our tryptophan-induced post-holiday slumber.
1. The Pathway to Peace in the Middle East Begins with President Obama, Monday November 26, 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Aaron David Miller, William Quandt, Daniel C. Kurtzer
What used to be the measuring stick for a president’s foreign policy legacy – bringing Palestinians and Israeli leaders together to negotiate a lasting peace – has in recent years been largely ignored, overshadowed by the imposing threat of a nuclear Iran and for the first time rarely garnering a mention on the presidential campaign trail.
The outbreak of renewed violence in recent days underscores the pressing need to urgently refocus on reaching a negotiated settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian issue. In his second term, President Obama should actively reengage in efforts to broker peace in the Middle East through a two-state solution that allows Israelis and Palestinians to live side by side in peace and security.
It is clear that leaders in the region will not take the initiative to restart a serious peace process. President Obama should therefore focus the resources available to him to actively reengage in efforts to broker peace in the Middle East through a two-state solution that allows Israelis and Palestinians to live side by side in peace and security.
Join the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace for a discussion with former U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer, former Jordanian deputy prime minister and foreign minister Marwan Muasher, former National Security Council official William Quandt, and former U.S. peace negotiator Aaron David Miller.
The forum will take a close look at Pathways to Peace: America and the Arab-Israeli Conflict, a collection of policy essays edited by Ambassador Kurtzer that brings together the world’s leading practitioners and scholars to counter the status quo and make a serious effort to advance Palestinian-Israeli peace. The book argues that a pathway to peace is within reach and that sustained American leadership is what is needed to help “regional leaders bridge their differences.”
Register for this event here.
2. Ambassador Dennis Ross and U.S. Policy in the Middle East in the Next Administration, Monday November 26, 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM, American University School of International Service
Venue: American University School of International Service, intersection of Nebraska Avenue NW and New Mexico Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20016, The Abramson Family Founders Room
Speakers: Dennis Ross, James Goldgeier
Join us for the fall semester Dean’s discussion with guest, Ambassador Dennis Ross. Dean Goldgeier and Ambassador Ross discuss U.S. Policy in the Middle East in the next U.S. administration. Ambassador Dennis Ross is the Ziegler Distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Ross served as a counselor from 2001-2009 and rejoined the Institute in December 2011 after serving two years as special assistant to President Obama as well as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and a year as special advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, focusing on Iran. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping U.S. involvement in the Middle East peace process and dealing directly with the parties in negotiations. Ambassador Ross serves on the SIS Dean’s Council.
Register for this event here.
3. The Price of Greatness: the Next Four Years of U.S. Foreign Policy, Tuesday November 27, 8:00 AM – 3:45 PM, Newseum
Venue: Newseum, 555 Pennsylvania Avennue NW, Washington, DC 20001, use the Freedom Forum entrance on 6th Street between Pennsylvania Avenue and C Street
Speakers: Jamie M. Fly, Jon Kyl, William Kristol, Kim Beazley, Jose L. Cuisia Jr., Nirupama Rao, J. Randy Forbes, Bernard-Henri Levi, John McCain, Robert Kagan, Joe Lieberman, Kelly Ayotte, Shin Dong-Hyuk, Christian Caryl, Adam Kinzinger, Tom Cotton, Dan Senor
In the next four years, the United States will face a wide array of international challenges. Iran continues to progress toward a nuclear weapons capability, China is expanding its military and economic power, and uncertainty over the outcome of the Arab Spring persists. These challenges will require substantial American leadership and a willingness to confront the looming budgetary crisis that underpins our involvement in the world.
Full schedule for this event here.
Register for this event here.
4. Center for Peacemaking Practice Lunch: the Ethics of Practice, Tuesday November 27, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speaker: Lisa Shaw
Do you learn from your own engagement in conflict? Are you interested in sharing you practical experience with others, or learning more about practical engagement in conflict? Come and join the Center for Peacemaking Practice for our bi-weekly Practitioner Lunches. Lunches are open to anyone interested in attending, regardless of experience!
RSVP for this event to cppgmu@gmu.edu.
5. Less is Better: Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers, Tuesday November 27, 3:30 PM – 6:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: James M. Acton, Malcolm Chalmers, Joan Rohlfing
Current prospects for likely future nuclear reductions remain limited to the long-standing bilateral U.S.-Russia framework. However, consideration must be given to multilateral nuclear restraint as well as the arsenals of the United States and Russia. In his recent paper Less Is Better: Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers, funded by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Malcolm Chalmers explores the steps that other nuclear-armed states would need to take to enable progress to low numbers. Are binding numerical limits required soon or should they be a more distant long-term goal? What steps are feasible in the short term? What can be done to build trust among key actors?
Please join the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program and the Nuclear Threat Initiative for a discussion of the paper’s key findings with a reception to follow. Joan Rohlfing will deliver opening remarks. James Acton will moderate.
Register for this event here. (http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/forms/?fa=registration&event=3866)
6. Civilians and Modern War: Armed Conflict and the Ideology of Violence, Tuesday November 27, 7:15 PM – 9:15 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Daniel Rothbart, Karina Korostelina, Mohammed Cherkaoui
Join Us for Food – and a Lively Discussion! This book explores the issue of civilian devastation in modern warfare, focusing on the complex processes that effectively establish civilians’ identity in times of war.
Civilians and Modern War provides a critical overview of the plight of civilians in war, examining the political and normative underpinnings of the decisions, actions, policies, and practices of major sectors of war. In sixteen chapters the contributors seek to undermine the ‘tunnelling effect’ of the militaristic framework regarding the experiences of noncombatants.
Underpinning the physicality of war’s tumult are structural forces that create landscapes of civilian vulnerability. Such forces operate in four sectors of modern warfare: nationalistic ideology, state-sponsored militaries, global media, and international institutions. Each sector promotes its own constructions of civilian identity in relation to militant combatants: constructions that prove lethal to the civilian noncombatant who lacks political power and decision-making capacity with regards to their own survival.
RSVP for this event to carevent@gmu.edu.
7. WJP Rule of Law Index 2012 Special Presentation, Wednesday November 28, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, Newseum
Venue: Newseum, 555 Pennsylvania Avennue NW, Washington, DC 20001, Knight Studio, 3rd Floor, use the Freedom Forum entrance on 6th Street between Pennsylvania Avenue and C Street
On Wednesday, November 28, the WJP Rule of Law Index 2012 report covering 97 countries and jurisdictions, representing over 90 percent of the world’s population, will be released at an event in Washington, D.C.
The WJP Rule of Law Index® is an assessment tool that offers a comprehensive picture of adherence to the rule of law. The 2012 report is the third in an annual series and includes, for the first time, a total of 97 countries and jurisdictions.
The Index and its findings have been referenced in major global media, including The Economist, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and El País; stimulated discussions and actions on the rule of law in countries around the world; and been cited by heads of state and chief justices, as supporting evidence of the need to advance rule of law reforms in their countries.
The report is a product of five years of intensive development, testing, and vetting – including interviewing 97,000 members of the general public and more than 2,500 experts in the following 97 countries.
RSVP for this event to ruleoflawindex@wjpnet.org.
8. Homeland Security: a Look Back and Ahead, Wednesday November 28, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM, George Washington University
Venue: The George Washington University, 805 21st Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Jack Morton Auditorium
Speakers: Joseph Lieberman, Steven Knapp, Frank Cilluffo, Rick “Ozzie” Nelson
Please join HSPI and CSIS for a discussion featuring Senator Joseph Lieberman, Chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. During his distinguished Senate career, Senator Lieberman has been at the forefront of a range of national and homeland security issues and challenges. He championed legislation creating the Department of Homeland Security, and has played a leadership role on counterterrorism policy and efforts to increase U.S. investment in defense and transform our armed forces to better meet the threats of the 21st century. Senator Lieberman will look back and ahead, addressing key past events as well as homeland security challenges for the future.
Register for this event here.
9. Department of Homeland Security at 10: Past, Present, and Future, Wednesday November 28, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Open Society Foundations
Venue: Open Society Foundations, 1730 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20006S,
Speakers: Stephen Vladeck, Michael German, Seth Grossman, Jamil Jaffer, Wendy Patten
On November 25, 2002, then President George W. Bush signed the Homeland Security Act, which established the Department of Homeland Security and called for the largest federal government reorganization since the creation of the Department of Defense in 1947. On Wednesday, November 28, join the American Constitution Society for Law and Policy and the Open Society Foundations for a panel discussion covering a decade of DHS accomplishments, successes, failures, and controversies, as well as suggested national security policies looking forward. A light lunch will be served at 11:45.
Register for this event here.
10. The Future of U.S.-Egyptian Relations: Engagement without Illusions, Wednesday November 28, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Venue: The Washington Institute, 1828 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 1050, Stern Library and Conference Room
Speakers: Vin Weber, Gregory Craig
As the Gaza conflict underscores, today’s Egypt — with its first-ever civilian president, Islamist leader Muhammad Morsi — is a very different country from the one with which successive U.S. administrations built a strategic partnership for more than thirty years. Fundamental change in Egypt mandates an equally fundamental reassessment of the bilateral relationship. In a report by the bipartisan Task Force on the Future of U.S.-Egypt Relations, two veteran foreign policy practitioners examine the profound yet uncertain change in Cairo since the heady days of Tahrir Square and offer specific recommendations to the Obama administration on how to secure U.S. interests with the “new Egypt.” To discuss these issues, The Washington Institute cordially invites you to a Policy Forum luncheon with Vin Weber and Gregory B. Craig.
Register for this event here.
11. Fortress Israel, Wednesday November 28, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speakers: Patrick Tyler, Peter Bergen
As footage of rocket attacks in Israel and Gaza once again fill television screens around world, we are reminded of how flammable the Israeli/Palestinian issue remains today. Former New York Times Chief Correspondent Patrick Tyler argues in his new book, Fortress Israel, that the pervasive influence of Israel’s military establishment has overwhelmed every competing institution, especially those devoted to diplomacy and negotiation. As a result, political leaders find themselves with few diplomatic options in the long term struggle with the Arabs. Tyler laments that the handful of Israeli leaders who have set peace as a strategic objective have failed or, as in the case of Yitzhak Rabin, were killed by extremists.
On November 28, the New America Foundation will host Tyler for a conversation about Fortress Israel, and the Israeli military officials who have created and sustained their nation’s highly martial culture.
Register for this event here.
12. The Future of the Pakistan-U.S. Relationship Between Now and 2014, Wednesday November 28, 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Sajit Ghandi, Simbal Khan, Michael Phelan, Moeed Yusuf
As we approach the 2014 transition in Afghanistan, the role of regional neighbors in contributing to and/or undermining transition processes becomes more important than ever before. Pakistan’s outlook regarding the “end game” in Afghanistan, and the dynamics of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship, remain crucial in this regard. The steadily deteriorating Pakistan-U.S. relationship during the past two years has been very detrimental to the collaboration needed for both sides to come up with a more convergent vision for the “end game” in Afghanistan. The state of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship over the next two years will be a critical factor in determining Pakistan’s role in the 2014 transition in Afghanistan. Both sides must improve ties despite a deep lack of trust and the negative political and public opinion they face in each other’s capitals.
Please join USIP for a panel discussion on the near to medium term future of the Pakistan-U.S. relationship. Panelists will examine whether the U.S. outlook towards Pakistan is likely to change in President Obama’s second term and if so, how? What will be the pros and cons of the likely policy shift? What are the expectations from both sides going forward?
Register for this event here.
13. Book Talk: the Soldier and the Changing State, Wednesday November 28, 2:30 PM – 5:00 PM, National Defense University
Venue: National Defense University, 300 5th Avenue SW, Fort Lesley J. McNair, Washington, DC 20319, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119
Speakers: Zoltan Barany, Dennis Blair, Samuel Worthington
Discussion of book The Soldier and the Changing State: Building Democratic Armies in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas by Professor Zoltan Barany, University of Texas, Austin. Hosted by the Center for Complex Operations at the National Defense University
RSVP for this event to mark.ducasse.ctr@ndu.edu.
14. The Changing Strategic Environment in the Middle East, Wednesday November 28, 6:00 PM, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service
Venue: Georgetown University, 37th and O Street NW, Washington, DC 20007, Healy Hall
Speaker: Dan Schueftan
Dr. Dan Schueftan is the Director of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa, a Senior Lecturer at the School of Political Sciences there and at the Israel Defense Forces National Defense College. He is the Aaron and Cecile Goldman Visiting Professor in the Department of Government during the 2012-2013 academic year.
Register for this event here.
15. Gender and Genocide: Masculinity, Femininity & the Potentials of GBV as an Early Warning Indicator of Genocide, Wednesday November 28, 6:30 PM – 9:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Elizabeth Mount, Kate O’Hare, Andrea Bartoli, Leslie Dwyer, Tetsushi Ogata
This conversation plans to go beyond discussions of sexual violence, exploring gender as a central element which foments and justifies genocide. Furthermore, gender neutral frameworks fail to identify distinguishing types of violence characteristic of early stages of genocide. Conceptualizing gender as a central defining component of genocide offers told useful for developing an early warning system.
Register for this event here.
16. Israel’s Right to Defend Itself: Implications for Regional Security and U.S. Interests, Thursday November 29, 7:30 AM, Rayburn House Office Building
Venue: The House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2170 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515
Speaker: Elliott Abrams
17. Dissertation Defense: Displacement of the Kashmiri Pandits: Dynamics of Policies and Perspectives of Policymakers, Thursday November 29, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Sudha Rajput, Karina Korostelina, Kevin Avruch, Carlos Sluzki
The magnitude of the social phenomenon of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) is a daunting humanitarian challenge with twenty-five million people currently in displacement. Based on the premise that the displacement of over 250,000 Kashmiri Pandits from the Kashmir Valley, beginning in 1989, had ruptured the very fabric of this community, this study investigates the impact of positions and perspectives of the policyholders, the host community and the IDPs and scrutinizes the resulting three-way dynamic. Through semi-structured field-based interviews with high level officials, the business leaders of the host communities and the IDPs living in a myriad of camps, this study unfolds the many political, social, cultural and psychological dimensions of this displacement.
The findings reveal that the policymaking process is a direct function of the perception of the policymakers about the IDPs and their mindset about the reasons for their displacement. In addition, the official positions and labels preclude long-term solutions for those internally displaced and spillover into the IDP/Host dynamic. The ambiguous narratives meant to favor the elite, have the potential to empower the IDPs, which negates the policy impact. Armed with an understanding of the key variables that shape the policymaking process and the IDP/Host dynamic, the findings are key to policy formulation and societal reforms. The study identifies specific roles for the international community as well as the national governments in addressing and in the handling of internal displacement and empowers the Conflict Resolution practitioners with tools to perform an accurate diagnostics of the displaced communities worldwide.
18. The Battle for Syria, Friday November 30, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium
Speaker: Radwan Ziadeh
Radwan Ziadeh, executive director of the Washington-based Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies, will discuss this topic and provide insights on the recent events in Syria.
RSVP for this event to menaclub.sais@gmail.com.
19. Nuclear Policy Talks: Etel Solingen on Sanctions, Statecraft, and Nonproliferation, Friday November 30, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speaker: Etel Solingen
Etel Solingen, Chancellor’s Professor of Political Science, UC Irvine. Dr. Solingen will speak on her new book, Sanctions, Statecraft, and Nonproliferation.
Register for this event here.
20. Inside Syria, Friday November 30, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speakers: Janine di Giovanni, Peter Bergen
By some estimates, the violent conflict wracking Syria has taken almost 40,000 lives since it began in March 2011. The world has been able to experience a portion of the horror alongside Syrian civilians through the footage and images of the fighting that have poured out of the country, though few Western journalists have been able to cover the war first-hand.
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program for a discussion with award-winning war reporter Janine Di Giovanni about her experiences inside Syria. Di Giovanni, whose on-the-ground reporting on the war was recently featured in The New York Times, Granta and Newsweek, is a contributing editor at Vanity Fair, has won five major journalistic awards, was one of the only reporters to witness the fall of Grozny, Chechnya, and has written five books, the last of which recently won Memoir of the Year in Britain. She currently lives in Paris and served as the President of the Jury of the Prix Bayeux for War Reporters in 2010.
Register for this event here.
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Off course
I’m no friend of Mohammed Morsi. I once even advocated voting for Mubarak crony Ahmed Shafiq, in order to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) from monopolizing Egypt’s elected institutions (that was before the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces* dissolved the MB-dominated lower house of parliament). But the notion that Egypt would be better off if street demonstrators overthrow him now is unconvincing. The Egyptian revolution is already off course. What it needs is a steady hand at the tiller, pointing in the right direction.
Admittedly it is hard to picture Morsi being the right guy to skipper the Egyptian ship of state. He is no George Washington, refusing to be crowned king. He is much more likely to point Egypt in the direction of renewed autocracy (of the Islamist variety) than to get it back on course toward democracy. That’s where the street demonstrations are vital: they need to be nonviolent and disciplined efforts to correct Morsi’s navigation. Their aim should not be to overthrow Morsi but to ensure that Egypt gets a decent constitution and goes to elections as soon as possbile in a climate that is democratic and pluralist.
Morsi assumed more autocratic powers this week mainly to counter the risk that the judiciary would block his interest in making Egypt a more Islamist state than it has been in the past. The performance of the judiciary has been so erratic and unreliable that its threat is uncertain, but it is still an important counterweight to Morsi’s exercise of power lies (and he knows it). Egypt has lots of smart lawyers. They need to work overtime in the next few months to ensure that Morsi is unable to put in place a political system that makes the MB a permanent fixture in power. One of the many ironies of the current situation is that the draft constitution under preparation is, as Nathan Brown puts it, not all that “problematic.” It will be a struggle to keep it that way now that Morsi has unlimited power.
While I ran into a bit of criticism on Twitter yesterday for suggesting it, the internationals (including the United States) also have a role to play. They should play it behind the scenes, making clear to anyone who will listen that correct treatment of women and minorities in the new Egypt is a sine qua non of international assistance. The notion that outsiders have nothing to say in the matter because they so long supported Hosni Mubarak is unconvincing to me. American and European influence may be marginal, but important decisions are made at the margin. Support for moderates who share American ideals should not be optional. It may be a long-term investment, but one worth making.
While no doubt Morsi has gained political weight internationally with his successful mediation of the latest Hamas/Israel conflagration, he remains vulnerable in many ways. Egypt’s economy is in serious trouble. Its people are poor and restive. Extremists in Sinai are challenging not only Israel’s security but also Egypt’s authority. The Egyptian army is a threat to no one. Iran and Turkey are becoming the main regional powers, leaving Egypt out of the equation while they fight a proxy war in Syria.
While my blogging colleagues never tire of announcing that American influence in the Middle East is coming to an end, that is not how I see it. Any leader of Egypt needs the United States to continue to provide military assistance, to help restore Egypt to its regional role and to ensure it gets the money it needs from the international financial institutions. There is a price for this kind of help: first and foremost in maintaining the peace agreement with Israel, but also in keeping Egypt to a democratic course. Egyptians will play the primary role, but internationals can help.
*PS: This was an error. It was the judiciary that dissolved the lower house, during the period of SCAF domination of the revolution.
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Pharaonic Islam
A day after cooperating with the United States in achieving a shaky ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s President Morsi arrogated to himself essentially absolute authority. You have to wonder: did he mention this in his several phone calls with President Obama in recent days, or in his conversations with Secretary of State Clinton? His new constitutional decrees do many things that amount to one big thing: the president is omnipotent. The courts cannot challenge him or the remaining legislative bodies (the Shura council and the constituent assembly), which are under Muslim Brotherhood domination. Morsi had already given himself the legislative powers of the lower house of Parliament, dissolved by military decree.
There is a good deal of “I told you so” tweeting back and forth in my feed. None of that matters much. The question is whether Morsi’s assumption of dictatorial powers really matters to the United States and if so what should we do about it?
We lived with an allied but autocratic Egypt for more or less 40 years, first under Anwar Sadat and later under Hosni Mubarak. The difference is that Morsi will be an Islamist autocrat, not a secularist one. And he has hijacked a revolution that appeared at least at times headed in the direction the United States would certainly have preferred: a modern, pluralist democracy. The Muslim Brotherhood from which Morsi emerged is neither modernist nor democratic (nor pluralist).
Morsi’s assumption of autocratic powers puts the Obama administration in an awkward situation. It needs Egypt not only to help with the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel but also to maintain the peace treaty with Israel and fight growing extremism on the border of Israel in the Sinai Peninsula. Trying to condition U.S. aid to Egypt on internal political liberalization could put at risk Egypt’s cooperation on international priorities concerning not just Israel but also Iran, Syria and other Middle East challenges.
Egypt however is not in a strong position. On economic questions, it has been falling into line with International Monetary Fund and World Bank requirements, because it needs their money to survive the economic downturn that has accompanied the revolution and is likely to persist for some time, especially in light of Europe’s recession. Aid does not flow readily from international financial institutions without American support.
Washington should use what leverage it has to push Morsi in the right direction, in particular in formulating Egypt’s new constitution. This is the vital issue: if it protects individual rights, including for women and minorities, there is some hope that the “spirit” of Egypt’s revolution (as understood by the youthful secularists who precipitated it) can be preserved, if only through painstaking efforts in court. If however the constitution installs Sharia and provides only limited opportunities for individuals to protect their rights through the courts, we are in for a long, dark period of Pharaonic Islam. That won’t be good for the United States, Israel or Egypt’s own people.
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Easier said than done
Hillary Clinton is on her way from Cambodia to Jerusalem. This is precisely the opposite direction from the one President Obama intends for American foreign policy: his announced intention is to pivot American attention from the Middle East to Asia. His visit to Asia just a few days after re-election was meant to underline that message.
The current Middle East crisis is over Gaza, where rocket launches against Israeli targets have precipitated a ferocious response, so far mainly from the air (though there have also been sea and land artillery barrages). Israel has mobilized ground forces, which appear ready for a land incursion into Gaza. Hamas, which governs Gaza (but does not necessarily launch all the rockets), has attracted support from Turkey, Qatar and Egypt, which is seeking to mediate a ceasefire.
This is a pretty clear cut case of the urgent taking priority over the important. Even in the Middle East, there are things going on that are more important to vital U.S. interests than the highly regrettable Hamas/Israel conflagration. The civil war in Syria above all requires more attention than it has gotten, even if Obama’s hesitancy to get more deeply involved is understandable when you look at the array of unappealing options available. Iran’s nuclear program continues to produce 20% enriched uranium. If diplomacy does not produce an end to its nuclear weapons ambitions in the next few months, military action by both the U.S. and Israel becomes likely. The fight against al Qaeda in Yemen isn’t working well–the drone war seems to produce more terrorists than it kills. Let’s not even mention the sometimes faltering revolutions in Tunisia and Libya, or the apparent extremist takeover of northern Mali.
Whatever. For the moment Gaza is at the top of America’s to do list. The immediate problem is a ceasefire, but Ehud Yaari argues that a broader arrangement is really what is needed. This would entail high-level political agreements between Egypt and Israel on blocking arms smuggling to Hamas, clamping down on extremists in Sinai and opening the border crossing between Egypt and Gaza to both trade and people.
The problem with these ideas is that they tie Hamas-governed Gaza more closely to Egypt and loosen its already attenuated ties to the West Bank, where the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) governs. If there is any sense at all in Israel’s right-wing efforts to block Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution the rest of the world favors, it lies precisely in a scheme to separate Gaza and the West Bank, returning the former to Egypt’s suzerainity and the West Bank to Jordan.
But that does not mean Yaari’s ideas are bad, only that what I take to be their unintended consequences should not be allowed to block Palestinian unity. It is an added irony that the main obstacle at the moment is the Palestinians themselves, who have not managed to reconstitute a united polity despite many efforts to do so. It will be interesting to see if the Israeli air attacks sharpen the differences between Gaza and the West Bank or narrow them. Palestinian unity, like the pivot to Asia, is easier said than done.
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The Gaza war in regional context
While the news media is mainly focused on the exchanges of rocket and air attacks between Israel and Gaza, my guess is that the broader regional picture will be decisive in determining the course and outcome of this latest outbreak of war in the Middle East. Here is a rundown of that broader picture:
1. Egypt: Cairo is trying to broker a ceasefire, with rhetorical support from the Arab League, but the Egyptian Prime Minister’s visit to Gaza Friday made it clear that the Muslim Brotherhood-led government will be more sympathetic to Hamas than Hosni Mubarak. Still, Egypt is in a tight spot: continuation of the war will attract militants to Gaza and the Sinai as well as send an already weak Egyptian economy into a tailspin. While Hamas has roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, a democratic regime in Egypt has to worry that Egypt’s citizens, sympathetic as they are to the plight of the Palestinians, will not want to sacrifice too much on their behalf. A ceasefire could restore Egypt’s role as a key regional player.
2. Syria: There has already been an exchange of artillery fire between the Syrian regime and Israel, something that hasn’t happened in a long time. Bashar al Asad may well look to military action on the Golan front in an effort to rally his remaining support and try to divert attention from his war against the Syrian revolution, now more than a year and a half old. The Syrian army won’t have a lot of spare capacity to challenge Israel, but it won’t want to be left out of the fight if the war continues.
3. Jordan: The protest movement against the rule of King Abdullah has intensified. The monarchy will not want to divert security forces to a fight against Israel, with which it maintains good if not warm relations. If the protests are successful, the king will be weakened further. A more constitutional monarchy might well be less friendly to Israel, but still unwilling to risk conflict.
4. Hizbollah: On the Lebanese front, Hizbollah is the main military force. It is already heavily engaged fighting against the revolution in Syria, but it could presumably make Israel’s situation more difficult by joining in the rocket barrage. Its record fighting Israeli ground forces is significantly better than Hamas’, so the Israelis would hesitate to engage on both fronts. But Hizbollah will be reluctant to aid Hamas, which has fallen out with the Syrian regime Hizbollah is supporting.
5. Gulf Cooperation Council: The Saudis and the other GCC states have not generally engaged directly against Israel, but the visit last week of the Emir of Qatar to Gaza (and his promise of financing) suggest that they may play a behind the scenes role bankrolling Hamas and others willing to challenge Israel. This could significantly attenuate the quiet but growing accommodation between Israel and the Sunni Arab world.
6. Turkey: Turkey and Israel seemed headed for rapprochement that would cure the 2010 rift over the Israeli attack on a Turkish aid flotilla headed for Gaza. This now seems much less likely. Turkey’s Islamist government will have to give at least verbal support to Hamas and hesitate to appear to paper over its differences with Tel Aviv.
7. Iran: Many of the larger rockets in Hamas’ arsenal come from Iran, which must be enjoying watching the Israelis engage in Gaza rather than carrying out the threat to destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities. Iran will no doubt provide Hamas, Hizbollah and Syria as much assistance as it can spare in its sanctions-weakened state, hoping to keep the Israelis preoccupied.
8. The wider Arab world: Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Yemen and Sudan all have their own problems that preclude more than rhetorical engagement in the Palestinian cause. Marc Lynch notes that mobilization in the Arab world so far is limited but could well intensify. The Arab street, which presumably has a louder voice today than before the Arab awakening, is certainly sympathetic to the Palestinians. And it is far more likely to support Hamas’ more aggressive military approach to Israel than the Palestine Liberation Organization’s diplomatic push for membership for membership in the United Nations.
Bottom line: Egypt likely has the decisive role in determining whether this war remains, like the one in 2008/9, a bilateral affair or turns into a wider conflict with more permanent consequences. But Iran, Hizbollah, and Turkey are also important players. If Israeli ground action lines up all the regional forces in favor of Hamas, the unintended consequences could be dramatic.
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Stay tuned
With Hamas rockets striking near Jerusalem and Israel bombing Gaza and mobilizing ground forces, it looks as if another Gaza war is in the offing. It is hard to understand how this will benefit either Palestinians or Israelis, but I credit foreignpolicy.com with trying to provide answers. On the Israeli side, the answer comes in an interview with former general Shlomo Brom, who sees the answer in deterrence:
What I mean by deterrence is manifesting to Hamas and other armed groups that the costs they will pay much outweigh the benefits that they are deriving from the launch of these rockets. And for that, you need from time to time a Cast Lead Operation.
Cast Lead was the name of the last Gaza ground invasion, in the winter of 2008/9.
On the Hamas side, the answers come from Hussein Ibish:
The [rocket] attacks are part of the case for the transfer of paramount leadership away from the exiles and to the Hamas political and military leadership in Gaza, which portrays itself as doing the ruling and the fighting.
He adds:
If the PLO goes forward with its initiative at the United Nations [to push for membership] and Israel and the West react with significant punitive measures, Hamas is better positioned than ever to be the direct political beneficiary. Indeed, it will never have been closer to its cherished aim of seizing control of the Palestinian national movement — and possibly even the PLO itself — from its secular nationalist rivals.
So what we’ve got here is an Israeli need to restore credible deterrence in the lead-up to a January 22 election and a Hamas Gaza interest in gaining political ground, vis-a-vis both its own “external” leadership and the PLO.
War rarely goes according to plan. The current situation in nearby parts of the Middle East is so fluid and volatile–especially in Egypt, Syria and Jordan–that it is easy to anticipate that there will be unexpected consequences. Already we’ve seen two supposed taboos–against rocket attacks on Jerusalem and against Syria firing into Israel–violated. There may be a lot more surprises in store, not only for Israelis and Palestinians but also for Americans and Europeans. Stay tuned.
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