Tag: Egypt
This week’s peace picks
I somehow managed to commit myself to three events this week, one off-the-record and two public: on Syria with Mona Yacoubian at the Center for National Policy (1 MA Ave), February 23, 12-1:15 and on Algeria (the same day!) 3-4:30 pm in BOB (1717 MA) 500 at SAIS. The week is a short one and therefore crowded with other interesting events:
1. Campaign 2012 Series – Election Cycle Foreign Policy with Heather Hurlburt, February 21, 6-7:30 PM
Campaign 2012 Series:
Election Cycle Foreign Policy with Heather Hurlburt
While the upcoming presidential election this year may be dominated by domestic issues, foreign policy remains a critical factor in any election season. Every aspiring foreign policy leader needs to have the skills and savvy to navigate electoral politics. As we gear up for Election 2012, YPFP is reviving the popular Campaign Series from 2008 to give members the opportunity for spirited bi-partisan debate on both the role of foreign policy on the upcoming election, and the impact of the presidential contest on foreign policy.
In this election, Iran, Syria, and the new “Pacific Pivot” strategy have emerged front and center, while the endgame of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have begun to recede. Yet, nothing carries more influence than the economy, with most foreign policy questions being viewed through the lens of job creation or possible budget cuts for defense, diplomacy, and development.
Please join YPFP and our co-sponsor, America’s Impact, for the first installment of YPFP’s Campaign 2012 Series: a discussion about foreign policy in an election cycle with Heather Hurlburt, Executive Director of the National Security Network. Ms. Hurlburt, a veteran politico and frequent news commentator, will lead a discussion of these questions:
• How is the foreign policy landscape changing from 2008 to 2012?
• What do aspiring foreign policy leaders need to know about
presidential election cycles?
• What can we expect in this election and in the future?
• What role does U.S. politics play in the formation of U.S. foreign policy?
• How are other countries viewing the 2012 presidential election?
This will be the first event in a bi-partisan series that focuses on the foreign policy questions and challenges during the 2012 campaign cycle. Please join us for our next event in partnership with the Foreign Policy Initiative. Stay tuned for more details!
Before joining NSN, Hurlburt ran her own communications and strategy practice, working on global and political issues with political, entertainment, and educational leaders. From 1995-2001, Hurlburt served in the Clinton Administration as Special Assistant and Speechwriter to the President, speechwriter for Secretaries of State Albright and Christopher, and member of the State Department’s Policy Planning staff. She has also worked for the International Crisis Group, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Congressional Helsinki Commission. At the Helsinki Commission, she was a negotiating member of the US Delegation to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and participated extensively in election monitoring, democracy-building and post-conflict missions in Central and Eastern Europe. She appears frequently as a commentator in new and traditional media and is a regular guest on Robert Wright’s Blogging Heads TV. Her work has been published by the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, Guardian, POLITICO, New Republic and other outlets. Hurlburt holds a BA from Brown University, magna cum laude, and an MA from the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs.
About America’s Impact
America’s Impact is a nonprofit community of professionals dedicated to making U.S. foreign policy a domestic priority. By supporting Congressional candidates who embrace pragmatic U.S. engagement with the world, we hope to build a more prosperous and secure America. For
more information, visit www.americasimpact.org.
2. The Iranian Nuclear Dilemma: Risk of an Iraq Sequel? Rayburn B339, February 21, 10:45 am-noon
A panel discussion featuring:
Hans Blix
Former Director General of the IAEA
Colin Kahl
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East
Robert Kelley
Former Chief Inspector for the IAEA in Iraq
Moderator: Trita Parsi
President, National Iranian American Council
Tuesday, February 21st, 2012
Rayburn House Office Building B-339
10:45 AM-12:00 PM
Light lunch will be provided
Seating is limited, RSVP required: rsvp@niacouncil.org or (202) 386-6325
Less than a decade after allegations of Iraqi weapons programs pitted the Bush Administration, the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the international community in a high stakes drama that ended in a devastating conflict and occupation, war again appears on the horizon—this time with Iran. But while fears of an Iranian aspiration for nuclear weapons have heightened the threat of another disastrous war, the Iranian nuclear dilemma is far from unresolvable.
Dr. Hans Blix served as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency from 1981 to 1997. He was appointed to lead the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission from 2000 to 2003 and was at the center of IAEA inspection efforts in Iraq prior to the Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Dr. Colin Kahl served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East from 2009 to 2011, developing and implementing the U.S. Defense Department’s strategy regarding Iran. He recently published “Not Time to Attack Iran” in Foreign Affairs.
Robert Kelley served as a member of the IAEA Iraq Action Team in 2003 and was Chief Inspector for the IAEA in Iraq, South Africa, and Libya. He questioned the evidence presented in the November 2011 IAEA report on Iran, in a Bloomberg piece, “Nuclear Arms Charge Against Iran Is No Slam Dunk”.
Sponsored by the Ploughshares Fund
The views of the speakers are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Iranian American Council.
3. Inside Egypt — The Path Forward, Gallup 901 F Street NW, February 22, 9-10 am
Over the past year, Egyptians have experienced a historic revolution, a surge in optimism, and a series of political and economic successes and challenges. Gallup scientifically measured Egyptians’ attitudes and hopes about the country’s politics and economics multiple times throughout this crucial year in the country’s history.
Gallup will share the key findings from these surveys at an in-depth briefing on February 22, 2012, in Washington, D.C. Gallup Senior Analyst Mohamed Younis will present the latest research on Egyptians’ views on the following topics:
- the coming presidential election
- Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel
- the Arab Spring and events in Syria and Libya
- the Egyptian military’s involvement in national politics
- Egyptians’ preferred path to civilian rule
Inside Egypt: The Path Forward will take place Wednesday, February 22, 2012 from 9:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. at The Gallup Building at 901 F Street, NW, Washington, D.C. Please note that the entrance to The Gallup Building is on 9th Street. Gallup will provide light refreshments. While there is no cost to attend, registration is required. For more information, please contact Krista Volzke at 402.938.6001.
Event Registration
| Date | Location | Price | Register By | Status |
| February 22, 2012 | Washington, D.C. | Free | February 17, 2012 | Open |
3. The Changing Relationship between Civil Society and the Military, February 22, 12-1:30 pm
Where: Creative Associates, 5301 Wisconsin Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. (nearest metro: Friendship Heights)
Civil society organizations are taking on more active and crucial roles in both conflict and post-conflict environments to allow for local stakeholders to quickly build capacity for social services in the absence of civilian government authority, create the infrastructure needed to expedite economic activity, and serve as an important voice of local populace to military authorities.
How should our changing understanding of civil society influence how the U.S. military should interact with local CSOs? Can the military and civil society work together without blurring the lines between military and civilian operations? Some have argued that well-intended efforts by the military-civil society partnerships to rebuild schools and playgrounds or provide medical assistance risks militarizing civilian activities in the eyes of hostile forces.
How does the military currently determine which organizations are reliable social partners? How should these partnerships be funded? And how much assistance, guidance, or support should military authorities provide without undermining CSOs’ independence and credibility?
On February 22, SID-Washington’s Civil Society and Crisis, Conflict and Transition workgroups will cosponsor a brown bag lunch featuring Dr. Evelyn Farkas, Senior Advisor for Public-Private Partnerships to SACEUR, J.Randall Tift, Senior Advisor for World Vision, and Paul Miller, Foreign Aid Advisor, Catholic Relief Services, who will lead an open discussion of relationship building between military and civil society leaders in conflict environments. This is not intended to be a presentation of military policy but a collaborative exchange on how to improve conflict environment management methods by both sides.
Speakers:
J. Randall Tift, Senior Advisor, World Vision
Evelyn N. Farkas, Ph.D., Senior Advisor for Public-Private Relationships to the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR)
Paul Miller, Foreign Aid Advisor, Catholic Relief Services
Beverages and light snacks will be provided.
Take-out lunch options near Creative Associates:
Friendship Heights Metro, south exit: Booeymonger, Cosi’s.
Friendship Heights Metro, north exit (one block from Creative Associates): McDonalds and Subway in Mazza Galarie, Cheesecake Factory on Wisconsin Ave.
Location: Creative Associates, 5301 Wisconsin Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C.
For more information:
Moderated byBob Schieffer
Chief Washington Correspondent, CBS News;
Anchor, CBS News’ “Face the Nation”
Panelists:General James E. Cartwright, USMC (Ret.)
Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff;
Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies, CSISAdmiral William J. Fallon, USN (Ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Central Command
David Sanger
Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times;
Author, The InheritanceThursday, February 23rd, 2012,
5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.CSIS
1800 K St. NW,
Washington, DC 20006
Seating is limited. RSVP is required. Please RSVP (acceptances only) with your name and affiliation to schiefferseries@csis.org.
The TCU Schieffer School of Journalism and CSIS cosponsor a monthly series of dialogues hosted by award-winning journalist Bob Schieffer to discuss the most pressing foreign and domestic issues of the day.
5. The Arab Spring and International Law, February 23, GWU Law School, 12 noon
Event Information
Thursday, February 23, 2012, 12:00 PM
Jacob Burns Moot Courtroom, George Washington University Law School, Washington, D.C.
Event Link
The ABA Section of International Law, in co-sponsorship with the American Society of International Law and the George Washington University School of Law, presents the 2nd Annual “Live from the L”: The Office of the Legal Adviser,U.S. Department of State. This year”s discussion will focus on “The Arab Spring and International Law” and will be webcast. Speakers Include: Harold Hongju Koh Legal Adviser, U.S. Department of State Linda Jacobson Assistant Legal Adviser for African and Near Eastern Affairs Please Save the Date for this incredible event, Registration will follow in the near future.
Contact Information
Curry Wilson, Meeting Planner/Committee Programs
curry.wilson@americanbar.org
(202) 662-1672
6. The Battle for Power in Iran: Revolutionary Guard Corps vs. Clerics, Carnegie Endowment, February 24, 12:15-2 pm
| ContactJessica Bouletjboulet@ceip.org 202 939 2212 |
EVENT DETAILS
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DATE |
Friday, February 24, 2012 |
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TIME |
12:15 to 2:00 p.m. |
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LOCATION |
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |
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Mehrzad Boroujerdi, Mehdi Khalaji, Ali Alfoneh, and Karim Sadjadpour |
Is the Islamic Republic of Iran a theocratic regime led by clerics, or a military dictatorship ruled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? Ahead of the country’s March 2012 parliamentary elections, noted experts Mehrzad Boroujerdi of Syracuse University, Mehdi Khalaji of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Ali Alfoneh of the American Enterprise Institute will examine the evolving architecture of power in Tehran. Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour will moderate the discussion.
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Speakers
Mehrzad Boroujerdi is associate professor of political science at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, where he also serves as the founding director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program. He is also the editor of the forthcoming Mirror for the Muslim Prince: Islam and Theory of Statecraft (Syracuse University Press) and is a nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute.
Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, focusing on the politics of Iran and Shiite groups in the Middle East. Previously, Khalaji served on the editorial boards of two prominent Iranian periodicals, and he also worked for BBC Persian as a political analyst on Iranian affairs, later becoming a broadcaster for Radio Farda, the Persian-language service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Ali Alfoneh is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where his research focuses on civil-military relations in Iran with a special focus on the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in the Islamic Republic. He was previously a research fellow at the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College.
Moderator
Karim Sadjadpour is an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was previously an analyst with the International Crisis Group based in Tehran and Washington. He is the author of Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran’s Most Powerful Leader.
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Wising up
Two weeks ago, I was getting ready to write a post suggesting that Bashar al Assad would likely win his current contest with Syrian protesters. It looked as if they had made a definitive choice in favor of a violent uprising, one that the Syrian security forces are capable of defeating. The net result would have been a low-level insurgency, aka civil war, one that would lead to increasing sectarian separation and destabilization of neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq. That outcome–the worst of all possible worlds for the United States–is still possible.
But Friday’s 41 peaceful demonstrations in Damascus, a few of them large, suggest that the opposition has wised up. Rather than a force-on-force confrontation they are bound to lose, the protesters spread out their efforts and kept them non-violent. Such coordinated risings in the capital are far more important for gaining adherents and defying the regime than killing a few soldiers or even Shabiha (non-uniformed regime goons) would be. It has forced the regime today to rush its security forces into the capital to squelch the defiance and re-establish fear. With any luck, they’ll find nothing to repress, as the protesters will hopefully be ready to ignite efforts elsewhere.
This is smart revolution. Drawing lines around specific territory and trying to defend it would be dumb revolution, because it identifies precisely the territory that the regime has to attack to kill its enemies. It has shown no hesitancy to do that. Safe areas and humanitarian corridors are unsafe unless defended with adequate force, which no one has yet shown any sign of readiness to field.
Meanwhile on the diplomatic front, the Chinese are showing some signs of veto remorse, averring openly that they support the Arab League plan calling for Bashar al Assad to step aside and allow his vice president to take charge of a transition to democracy. I’d be the first to admit that a similar scheme is not looking so great in Yemen, where yesterday’s one-candidate election will presumably lead to Vice President Hadi’s takeover of power and initiation of some kind of transition. The problem in Yemen is that those sharing power do not include the protesters who initiated the revolution and who reject amnesty for former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The situation in Syria is different. There really is no question of amnesty for Bashar. The best he can hope for is exile in Iran, which backs him to the hilt. But he could just as well end up dead like Muammar Qaddafi or on trial like Hosni Mubarak, prospects that are presumably inspiring his murderous attempts to repress the demonstrations.
“Friends of Syria,” the international coalition in favor of the revolution, plans to meet Friday in Tunisia. This is a good occasion to reiterate support for the Arab League plan, tighten sanctions, press for greater unity among the Syrian opposition and reiterate support for nonviolent protest. It may also be a good opportunity to strategize about bringing China and even Russia into the fold. The Chinese seem halfway there. The Russians will need some guarantees on access to port facilities in Syria before signing on.
Meanwhile, watch those Iranian warships that traversed the Suez Canal yesterday. They have now docked at Tartus. If they deliver weapons or personnel to Syria, it would be a good moment for someone to intervene. That’s not trivial, since there is no arms embargo, but that’s why we’ve got all those clever lawyers in the State Department. I hope they are busy scribbling the decision memos.
PS: The Iranians claimed the ships docked, but the Pentagon says they never did. Maybe someone in Tehran understood the risk.
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This week’s “peace picks”
Loads of interesting events this week:
1. Georgian-South Ossetian Confidence Building Processes, Woodrow Wilson Center, 6th floor, February 6, noon- 1pm
Dr. Susan Allen Nan will discuss the Georgian-South Ossetian relationship, including insights from the 14 Georgian-South Ossetian confidence building workshops she has convened over the past three years, the most recent of which was in January. The series of unofficial dialogues catalyze other confidence building measures and complement the Geneva Talks official process.
Please note that seating for this event is available on a first come, first served basis. Please call on the day of the event to confirm. Please bring an identification card with a photograph (e.g. driver’s license, work ID, or university ID) as part of the building’s security procedures.
The Kennan Institute speaker series is made possible through the generous support of the Title VIII Program of the U.S. Department of State.
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Associate Professor of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University
by
Zbigniew Brzezinski
Former National Security Adviser and CSIS Counselor and Trustee
Willard Room, Willard InterContinental Hotel
1401 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Introduction by
John Hamre, CSIS
Remarks by
Zbigniew Brzezinski
Interviewed by
David Ignatius, The Washington Post
Book Signing
from 4:00 to 4:30 p.m.
-Books will be available for purchase-
This invitation is non-transferable. Seating is limited.
To RSVP please e-mail externalrelations@csis.org by Wednesday, February 2.
This book seeks to answer 4 questions:
What are the implications of the changing distribution of global power from West to East, and how is it being affected by the new reality of a politically awakened humanity? Why is America’s global appeal waning, how ominous are the symptoms of America’s domestic and international decline, and how did America waste the unique global opportunity offered by the peaceful end of the Cold War? What would be the likely geopolitical consequences if America did decline by 2025, and could China then assume America’s central role in world affairs? What ought to be a resurgent America’s major long-term geopolitical goals in order to shape a more vital and larger West and to engage cooperatively the emerging and dynamic new East? America, Zbigniew Brzezinski argues, must define and pursue a comprehensive and long-term geopolitical vision, a vision that is responsive to the challenges of the changing historical context. This book seeks to provide the strategic blueprint for that vision.
5. The Unfinished February 14 Uprising: What Next for Bahrain? Dirksen, 9:30-11 am February
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Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 106
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POMED DC Events Calendar
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alex.russell@pomed.org
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As the February 14th anniversary of the start of mass protests in Bahrain approaches, now is a critical time to analyze events over the past few months and discuss expectations for the coming weeks. With the release of the BICI report in late November, which detailed systematic human rights abuses and a government crackdown against peaceful protesters, the Government of Bahrain was tasked with a long list of reforms and recommendations. At this juncture, nearly two months after the release of the report, it is essential for the United States to debate the Kingdom’s reforms and how to move Bahrain forward on a path of democratic progress. Human rights groups continue to raise significant human rights concerns with respect to the situation on the ground. What are some of these concerns? What are the current realities on the ground in Bahrain? What are the strategies of the country’s political opposition parties and revolutionary youth movement, and how is the monarchy reacting? What are some expectations and challenges regarding the palace-led reform process? And, importantly, what constructive roles can the U.S. play in encouraging meaningful reform at this time? Please join us for a discussion of these issues with: Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) Elliott Abrams Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations Joost Hiltermann Deputy Program Director, Middle East and North Africa, International Crisis Group Colin Kahl Associate Professor, Georgetown University; Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security Moderator: Stephen McInerney Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy To RSVP: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dGFWVEU3dzBVNUtiTzFKYW5OVlZ3UXc6MQ This event is sponsored by the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), the National Security Network, and the Foreign Policy Initiative. For more information, visit: http://pomed.org/the-unfinished-february-14-uprising-what-next-for-bahrain-2/
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6. An Assessment of Iran’s Upcoming Parliamentary Elections, Woodrow Wilson Center, 12-1:15 pm February 9
with
Hosein Ghazian
and
Geneive Abdo
Location:
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Geneive Abdo //Director, Iran Program, The Century Foundation
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Visiting Scholar, Syracuse University
This event requires a ticket or RSVP
The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU) and the Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding
invite you to
One Year Later:
Has the Arab Spring Lived Up to Expectations?
A public panel featuring:
John L. Esposito
University Professor & Founding Director
ACMCU, Georgetown University
Heba Raouf
Associate Professor
Cairo University
Radwan Ziadeh
Fellow, Institute for Social Policy and Understanding
Senior Fellow, United States Institute of Peace
Moderated by:
Farid Senzai
Director of Research
Institute for Social Policy and Understanding
February 9, 2012 – 4:00-6:00 pm
Georgetown University Hotel & Conference Center | Salon H
One year has passed since protestors took to the streets across the Arab World. Join the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding and the Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding for an engaging panel on what progress has been made on the ground and where the revolution will go from here.
_______________________
John L. Esposito is University Professor, Professor of Religion and International Affairs and of Islamic Studies and Founding Director of the Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding at the Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Esposito specializes in Islam, political Islam from North Africa to Southeast Asia, and Religion and International Affairs. He is Editor-in-Chief of Oxford Islamic Studies Online and Series Editor: Oxford Library of Islamic Studies, Editor-in-Chief of the six-volume The Oxford Encyclopedia of the Islamic World, The Oxford Encyclopedia of the Modern Islamic World, The Oxford History of Islam (a Book-of-the-Month Club selection), The Oxford Dictionary of Islam, The Islamic World: Past and Present, and Oxford Islamic Studies Online. His more than forty five books include Islamophobia and the Challenge of Pluralism in the 21st Century, The Future of Islam, Who Speaks for Islam? What a Billion Muslims Really Think (with Dalia Mogahed), Unholy War: Terror in the Name of Islam (a Washington Post and Boston Globe best seller), The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality?, Islam and Politics, Political Islam: Radicalism, Revolution or Reform?, Islam and Democracy (with J. Voll). His writings have been translated into more than 35 languages, including Arabic, Turkish, Persian, Bahasa Indonesia, Urdu, European languages, Japanese and Chinese. A former President of the Middle East Studies Association of North America and of the American Council for the Study of Islamic Societies, Vice Chair of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy, and member of the World Economic Forum’s Council of 100 Leaders, he is currently Vice President (2012) and President Elect (2013) of the American Academy of Religion, a member of the E. C. European Network of Experts on De-Radicalisation and the board of C-1 World Dialogue and an ambassador for the UN Alliance of Civilizations. Esposito is recipient of the American Academy of Religion’s Martin E. Marty Award for the Public Understanding of Religion and of Pakistan’s Quaid-i-Azzam Award for Outstanding Contributions in Islamic Studies and the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University Award for Outstanding Teaching.
Heba Raouf Ezzat holds a Ph.D in political theory and has been teaching at Cairo University since 1987, and is also an affiliate professor the American University in Cairo (since 2006). She currently serves as Visiting Senior Fellow at the Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding. Her research, publications and activism is focused on comparative political theory, women in Islam, global civil society, new social movements and sociology of the virtual space. She is also a cofounder of Islamonline.net which is now Onislam.net, an academic advisor of many youth civil initiatives, the member of the Board of Trustees of Alexandria Trust for Education – London, and the Head of the Board of Trustees of the Republican Consent Foundation – Cairo. She was a research fellow at the University of Westminster (UK) (1995-1996), the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies (1998 and 2012), and the Center for Middle East Studies, University of California-Berkeley (2010). She recently participated in establishing the House of Wisdom, the first independent Egyptian Think Tank founded after the Egyptian revolution 2011.
Radwan Ziadeh is a Fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), a Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, and a Dubai Initiative associate at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is the founder and director of the Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies in Syria and co-founder and executive director of the Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C.
Farid Senzai is Director of Research at ISPU and Assistant Professor of Political Science at Santa Clara University. Dr. Senzai was previously a research associate at the Brookings Institution, where he studied U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East, and a research analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he worked on the Muslim Politics project. He served as a consultant for Oxford Analytica and the World Bank. Dr. Senzai is currently on the advisory board of The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life where he has contributed to several national and global surveys on Muslim attitudes. His recent co-authored book is Educating the Muslims of America (Oxford University Press, 2009). Dr. Senzai received a M.A. in international affairs from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in politics and international relations from Oxford University.
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Please RSVP here: http://arabspringispu.eventbrite.com/
For a map and directions to the GU Conference Center, please visit: http://www.acc-guhotelandconferencecenter.com/map-directions/
mem297@georgetown.edu
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Dr. John Hamre
President and CEO, CSISModerated by
Dr. Bulent Aliriza
Director and Senior Associate, CSIS Turkey ProjectCenter for Strategic and International Studies
B1 Conference Room
1800 K. St. NW, Washington, DC 20006
9. China, Pakistan and Afghanistan: Security and Trade, 12:30-2 pm, Rome Auditorium, SAIS
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This week’s peace picks
Far too much this week. I’ve pared it down, but not enough:
1. A Discussion on the Obama Administration’s National Security Policy, Center for American Progress, January 30, 12-1 pm
Streaming Video
About This Event
Please join the Center for American Progress for a discussion of the Obama administration’s national security policy and the new challenges we face around the world with Benjamin Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications. Neera Tanden, President of the Center for American Progress, will lead a session examining the first three years of the Obama administration’s record on foreign policy and looking ahead to the emerging national security challenges in 2012.
Distinguished Speaker:
Benjamin Rhodes, White House Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications
Moderator:
Neera Tanden, President of the Center for American Progress
A light lunch will be served at 11:30am.
Location
Center for American Progress
1333 H St. NW, 10th Floor
Washington, DC 20005
2. Briefing: Egypt One Year after the Revolution (AAI Event), 2168 Rayburn, January 31, noon-1 pm
A discussion hosted by the Arab American Institute featuring:
Ashraf Khalil – Journalist & Author, Liberation Square
Dr. James Zogby – President, Arab American Institute
Lunch will be served
Ashraf Khalil is a journalist and author of the recently-published book Liberation Square: The Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation. Ashraf has reported for numerous publications including the Los Angeles Times, The Times of London, and Foreign Policy, among others. Liberation Square has received excellent reviews. Foreign Policy listed Liberation Square in its 21 books to read in 2012. Salon calls it a “thrilling account of Egypts revolution” and Publishers Weekly says, “Khalils account is essential reading, evoking the urgency and vitality of the Arab springs Egyptian chapter.”
Dr. James Zogby is the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American community. Since 1985, Dr. Zogby and AAI have led Arab American efforts to secure political empowerment in the U.S. He is the author of Arab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters.
RSVP to Samer Araabi at saraabi@aaiusa.org or 202-652-4984
3. Nigeria on the Edge, Atlantic Council, January 31, 2-3:30 pm
The Atlantic Council’s Michael S. Ansari Africa Center is pleased to an invite you to a panel discussion, ‘Nigeria on the Edge’ on January 31. In recent weeks, the murder of almost three hundred Nigerians by the mysterious Boko Haram sect have begun to spark reprisal attacks, an alarming development that could signal a reprise of the deadly “ricochet riots” that haunted northern Nigeria through the 1990s. Boko Haram claims it is avenging Muslims killed by police brutality and communal violence, and its attacks have targeted both Christians and Muslim supporters of the Nigerian government. Whether the violence committed by Boko Haram is ultimately attributed to jihadis, disgruntled politicians, or criminal gangs – or is found to be a haphazard combination of the three – the group has emerged as a powerful disordering force, one that threatens the non-violent coexistence of Christian/Muslim and north/south populations in Nigeria.
The government, grappling with an ill-timed credibility crisis of its own making, has been unable to restore any sense of security to the nation. On the contrary, President Goodluck Jonathan’s sudden removal of a long-standing subsidy has abruptly doubled the price of fuel, sending shockwaves through Nigerian society. Days of panic-driven national strikes paralyzed the country, as thousands of cash-strapped Nigerians took to the streets, and the country’s primary oil union threatened to shut down output and plunge the economy further into chaos. Jonathan has managed to subdue the unrest – by partially backtracking on the subsidy, deploying soldiers against the crowds, and threatening to jail protestors – but will his inconsistency and show of force ultimately do more harm to his administration’s credibility than good?
How alarming is the crisis and what does it mean for Nigeria? In the words of Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka: “When you’ve got a situation where a bunch of people can go into a place of worship and open fire through the windows, you’ve reached a certain dismal watershed in the life of that nation.” The question is whether Nigeria, under President Goodluck Jonathan’s leadership, will manage to pull back from the brink, or descend further into regional, civil, and religious conflict.
A panel discussion featuring
Ambassador John Campbell
Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies
Council on Foreign Relations
Peter Lewis
Director, Africa Studies
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Phillip van Niekerk
Former Editor, Mail and Guardian
Managing Partner, Calabar Consulting
Moderated by
J. Peter Pham
Director, Michael S. Ansari Africa Center
Atlantic Council
| DATE: |
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
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| TIME: |
2:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m.
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| LOCATION: | Atlantic Council 1101 15th Street, NW, 11th Floor Washington, DC 20005 |
RSVP with name and affiliation (acceptances only) to africa@acus.org. Photo credit: Total-facts-about-nigeria.
Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
1957 E Street, NWJake Sullivan, Director of Policy Planning, U.S. Department of StateReception: 6:30-7:00 PM
Lecture: 7:00-8:00 PMRSVP at: http://go.gwu.edu/sullivanSponsored by the Security Policy Forumand the Elliott School of International Affairs5. Peace Corps 50th Anniversary: A Celebration of Service, CSIS, February 1, 10-11:30 am
6. Stopping the Clock on Iran’s Nuclear Development, 902 Hart Senate Office Building, February 1, 10-11 am
Featuring
Senator Dan Coats (R-IN)
Former Senator Chuck Robb (D-VA)
Co-Chair, BPC’s Iran Initiative
General (ret.) Chuck Wald
Co-Chair, BPC’s Iran Initiative
John Tanner
Vice Chairman, Prime Policy Group
Member, BPC’s Iran Initiative
Opening Remarks by
Michael Makovsky
Director, BPC’s National Security Project
7. Shifting Sands: The Future of the US-Egyptian Relationship, Center for National Policy, February 1, 12-1:15 pm
Gregory Aftandilian
Former Middle East analyst at the U.S. Department of State
Nathan Brown
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Michele Dunne
Atlantic Council
Paul Sullivan
National Defense University
With Islamist parties dominating the new parliament and the powers of the yet undetermined president uncertain, what changes can we expect in Egyptian foreign policy? Will the military continue to have an instrumental political role after it returns to the barracks post-June 2012? Join CNP President Scott Bates and an expert panel to discuss how Egypt’s new political map might affect the future of the US-Egyptian relationship.
Where
Center for National Policy
One Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Suite 333
Washington, DC 20001
202-682-1800
Map
Click here
8. North Korea After Kim Jong Il: The Future of Inter-Korean and US-DPRK Relation, Kenney Auditorium SAIS, February 1, 2-4 pm
Join us for a discussion about the future of North Korea under Kim Jong Un, and the policy implications for inter-Korea and and US-DPRK relations. Featuring:
Venerable Pomnyun Sunim
Chairman, Good Friends and the Peace Foundation
Dr. Alexandre Mansourov
Visiting Scholar, US-Korea Institute at SAIS
Feburary 1, 2012
Kenney Auditorium at SAIS
1740 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036
Venerable Pomnyun Sunim, a respected Buddhist monk and activist, is the chairman of The Peace Foundation in Seoul, which supports policy research and analysis aimed at Korean unification and humanitarian issues in North Korea. He concurrently serves as the chairman of Good Friends for Peace, Human Rights, and Refugee Issues, whose weekly publication “North Korea Today” provides detailed, up-to-date information about conditions on the ground in North Korea. Venerable Pomnyun is also chairman of the Join Together Society, an international relief agency with offices worldwide, including in North Korea. He has worked extensively to supply humanitarian aid to famine victims in North Korea and defend the human rights of North Korean refugees in China, and is a Zen master with the Seoul-based JungTo Society, which he originally established in 1988 to facilitate self-improvement through volunteerism. In recognition of his efforts, Venerable Pomnyun received the Ramon Magsaysay Award for Peace and International Understanding in September of 2002.
Dr. Alexandre Mansourov is a Visiting Scholar at the U.S.-Korea institute at SAIS, John Hopkins University, founding member of U.S. National Committee on North Korea, and Senior Associate of Nautilus Institute. He is a specialist in Northeast Asian security, politics, and economics, focusing primarily on the Korean Peninsula. Dr. Mansourov worked as Full Professor of Security Studies at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies from 2001 to 2007. Dr. Mansourov received his Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, New York. He edited three books, including A Turning Point: Democratic Consolidation in the ROK and Strategic Readjustment in the US-ROK Alliance (2005), Bytes and Bullets: Information Technology Revolution and National Security on the Korean Peninsula (2005), and The North Korean Nuclear Program: Security, Strategy, and New Perspectives from Russia (2000), as well as published numerous book chapters and academic articles on Korean and Northeast Asian affairs.
9. Burma’s Changing Political Landscape: A Conversation with Three Leading Activists, NED, February 2, 9:30 am-2 pm
Featuring remarks by
Zaganar, comedian, founder of Thee Lay Lee and the Multi-Colour Troupe and former political prisoner
Khin Than Myint, leading advocate for women’s rights and member of the National League for Democracy
Bauk Gyar, Kachin activist and member of the National Democratic Force political party
and a luncheon address by
Michael Posner, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
Thursday, February 2, 2012
9:30 a.m. – 2:00 p.m.
1025 F St, NW 8th Floor
Washington, DC 20004
RSVP via e-mail with name and affiliation by January 30.
About the Event:
Since it released Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest in November 2010, the Burmese government has embarked on a series of unprecedented and dramatic steps that appear to recognize both the need for political reform and the role of the political opposition in the process. Towards this end, the government allowed the National League for Democracy to register as a party and to contest in the upcoming by-elections; relaxed restrictions on the press; invited back exiles; suspended construction on a Chinese-financed dam; announced cease-fire deals with a number of ethnic nationality forces; and released hundreds of political prisoners, including 88 leaders Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, Shan leader Khun Htun Oo, and Saffron Revolution leader U Gambira.
The international community has responded accordingly – ASEAN awarded Burma the chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014; and the United States and the United Kingdom dispatched their top diplomats to the country for the first time in over 50 years.
To make sense of these developments, three civil society leaders from Burma will offer their perspectives on the changing political dynamics in the country. In addition, Michael Posner, Assistant Secretary for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor of the U.S. Department of State, will share the U.S. government’s perspective on developments in Burma.
Agenda:
9:30 – 10:00: Coffee and introductions
10:00 – 12:00: Conversation With Three Burmese Activists
- Zaganar
- Khin Than Myint
- Bauk Gyar
12:30 – 2:00: Luncheon Speaker: Michael Posner
About the Speakers:
Maung Thura, aka “Zarganar,” is widely considered to be the most popular comedian and satirist in Burma. Known for his sharp wit and criticism of the government, Zarganar is also a popular actor, director, and social activist. In September 2006, the government banned Zarganar from performing publicly or participating in any kind of entertainment-related work due to his pointed criticism of the regime. In the immediate aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in May 2008, Zarganar organized more than 200 volunteers to provide aid and assistance to victims of the devastating storm that killed an estimated 130,000 and left millions homeless. Zarganar provoked the regime by speaking to foreign media about the dire situation of millions of Burmese living in the devastated Irrawaddy delta region. For this, he was arrested in June and handed a 59-year sentence in November. He was released on October 11, 2011, as part of a mass amnesty of prisoners. Zarganar is the recipient of numerous international awards, including the Fund for Free Expression’s Lillian Hellman and Dashiel Hammett Award and PEN Canada’s One Humanity Award.
Khin Than Myint is a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD), teacher, and women’s rights activist. Khin Than Myint joined the NLD in 1995 and is a close associate of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. She is active in the NLD’s youth and women’s wings. Khin Than Myint was arrested in September 2000 for helping to arrange Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s visit to Mandalay. She was released from prison in January 2001.
Daw Bauk Gyar is a member of the National Democratic Force (NDF) and 
a founder of Vision of Peace. Daw Bauk Gyar is a Kachin activist dedicated to promoting peace and democracy in Burma particularly in Kachin State. Daw Bauk Gyar contested the 2010 general election in the Pha Kant Township Constituency in Kachin State as a member of the National Democratic Force but lost to a member of the regime-backed party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Daw Bauk Gyar filed a complaint with the Election Commission alleging fraud. Despite her experience in 2010, she is planning to once again run for a seat in the by-election, scheduled for April 1, 2012. Daw Bauk Gyar is also a co-founder of Vision of Peace, a group of ethnic leaders dedicated to working for a nationwide ceasefire and peaceful negotiations between the Burmese government and ethnic armed groups as well as combating illegal land confiscation by the authorities and private companies.
Michael H. Posner was sworn in as Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor on September 23, 2009. Prior to joining the State Department, Mr. Posner was the Executive Director and then President of Human Rights First. As its Executive Director he helped the organization earn a reputation for leadership in teh areas of refugee protection, advancing a rights-based approach to national security, challenging crimes against humanity, and combating discrimination. He has been a frequent public commentator on these and other issues, and has testified dozens of times before the U.S. Congress. In January 2006, Mr. Posner stepped down as Executive Director to become the President of Human Rights First, a position he held until his appointment as Assistant Secretary.
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Ambiguities in Egypt and Syria
It’s only two days since I attempted a summary of where things stand in the Arab world. Already things are changing. As one of my colleagues notes, that’s just the point: politics are going to be dynamic in the Arab world in the future. The decades of stasis are over.
In Egypt, large crowds are turning out today (the first anniversary of the revolution) to insist on transfer of power to the newly installed parliament. It looks as if the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) is going to have trouble holding on to as much power as it would like. Will the SCAF make the mistake of forcibly dispersing the demonstrators, or has it begun to understand that it needs to reduce its own visibility and delegate more authority to the popularly elected representatives of the people? The soldiers would be wise to let them take the rap for the lousy economy and political strife.
In Syria, developments are also ambiguous. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have yanked their human rights observers from the Arab League team, which is likely to eviscerate that effort, or at least de-fang it. The Syrian Foreign Minister is welcoming the observers back, which is not a good sign for their likely effectiveness without the GCC participants. That is a great irony: the GCC as the guardian of human rights?
At the same time, the Arab League is asking for the UN Security Council to act. The Assad regime, having rejected the Arab League plan for a peaceful transition, is buying lots of Russian trainer aircraft, a sale that directly contradicts Moscow’s indications that Syria has reached the end of its rope. While those aircraft will presumably not be delivered for some time, their sale would certainly be a political signal of Moscow’s support for Damascus.
It will be interesting to see how the Americans react if Syria begins to use its existing aircraft against the demonstrators. President Obama in last night’s State of the Union address paired Bashar al Assad with Muammar Qaddafi. Will their ends be similar? I have generally discounted the possibility of military action to protect the protesters, but if Assad starts using aircraft that could change the equation quickly.
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This is called retrenchment
We all anticipated this State of the Union speech would not focus on international issues, but here is my short list of more important things not mentioned or glossed over:
- West Bank settlements (or Palestinians)
- North Korea
- Euro crisis
- Africa or Latin America (not even Cuba),
- Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, virtually no Egypt, Tunisia or Yemen
- China (except as an unfair competitor)
- Turkey, Mexico, Brazil, India or even Russia (except as an emerging market)
- Pakistan (except as an Al Qaeda haven)
- Strait of Hormuz
That’s a pretty spectacular list, even without noting the absence of NATO, Japan, allies, Europe, the UN…
A few notable items that were mentioned:
- Strong on regime change in Syria (putting Assad in the same sentence with Qaddafi could have implications) and on exporting democracy and free markets in general
- Positive about peaceful resolution of the dispute with Iran over nuclear weapons, while keeping all options on the table
- Trade agreements with South Korea, Panama and Colombia
- Burma as the hope of the Pacific!
Of course the President also mentioned withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, security cooperation with Israel, blows delivered against Al Qaeda, and the troops (no mention of civilians serving abroad this time around I’m afraid).
If this is a prelude to the campaign, as rightly it should be, it presages an ever more economically focused foreign policy, with security issues narrowed to a few top priorities and little focus on diplomacy except on a few specific issues. This is a vision for restoring American economic strength at home, not increasing–or perhaps even maintaining–its commitments abroad. This is called retrenchment.
PS: I should have mentioned that Richard Haas calls it “restoration.” That’s a more positive word, but the substance is the same.
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