Tag: Elections
Stevenson’s army, May 2
– NYT sued for release of Trump’s less restrictive guidance on drone attacks and finally succeeded. The actual document is here.
– NYT reports on secret talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
– AP reports North Korea warnings to US.
– Smithsonian historian argues that banning liquor sales on election day, requring permits
for rallies, and even secret ballot boxes were elite efforts to limit votes by the poor.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | October 12 – October 16, 2020
1. What Do Africans Think About the Continent’s Future? | October 13, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:10 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
New data from Afrobarometer’s latest round of public attitude surveys provide important guideposts for U.S. policymakers and Africa analysts. Findings from 18 countries offer insights on Africans’ aspirations for sovereignty, self-sufficiency, and democratic and accountable governance—as well their inclination toward open borders and free trade rather than protectionism. They also reveal a continued preference for the United States over China as a development model, their rejection of “debt diplomacy,” and their belief that English, rather than Chinese, remains the international language of the continent’s future.
These findings come amid wide recognition that progress on democratic governance in Africa has stalled, with many African governments falling back to authoritarian practices. The effectiveness of U.S. policy has been questioned as a result, and analysts have argued that U.S. policy toward Africa needs to be updated and revitalized. This is especially true in the context of a global pandemic that has undermined African economies and livelihoods, raised threats to governance and the rule of law, and revealed the potential global implications of access to health services.
Join USIP and Afrobarometer for a first look at Afrobarometer’s latest survey research and results, as well as a discussion on how the data can help guide U.S. government policy in Africa and provide key insights for policymakers on trends and potential threats to peace and security in Africa.
Speakers:
Ambassador Johnnie Carson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. E. Gyimah-Boadi: Interim CEO, Afrobarometer
Dr. Carolyn Logan: Director of Analysis, Afrobarometer; Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Michigan State University
Josephine Appiah-Nyamekye Sanny: Regional Communications Coordinator/Anglophone West Africa, Afrobarometer and Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Susan Stigant, moderator: Director, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace
2. COVID-19 and the Futures of Conflict in the Middle East | October 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Ongoing analysis in the Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Strategic Foresight Initiative is examining scenarios of what conflict in the region could look like in 2025 based on different combinations of factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic. MEI is pleased to bring together experts to pose two important questions: What signals do we see of the pandemic’s impacts affecting foreign policy and conflict behaviors of key actors in the region? How are long standing social dynamics in the region being affected by the pandemic and in turn influencing conflict dynamics?
Speakers:
Alexandra Clare: Co-founder and CEO, Re:Coded
Nancy Ezzeddine: Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute
Ross Harrison: Senior Fellow and Director of Research, MEI
Steven Kenney, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI; founder and principal, Foresight Vector LLC
3. The Impact of COVID-19 on Local Peacebuilding in the Middle East | October 14, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The outbreak of COVID-19 in conflict zones was regarded by many as an opportunity for peace. But today, the stark reality in many conflict zones has shown that the opportunity may have been missed. Cease-fires are being ignored, and the politics of the pandemic have enabled conflict and violence rather than deterred them. The past few months have shown that while the COVID-19 health crisis will eventually subside, its economic, social, and political implications will unfortunately outlive it. In the face of these challenges, how are local peacebuilding efforts in the Middle East coping with the far-reaching effects of the pandemic in both the short- and long-term?
Join USIP and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) for a panel discussion featuring peacebuilding experts and practitioners from the Middle East. The online conversation will look at the implications of COVID-19 on peacebuilding at the local level in three particular Middle Eastern contexts—Yemen, Syria, and Iraq—as well as how regional and international actors should engage in the Middle East to support local peace actors as they try to preserve the gains they’ve made over the past few years.
Speakers:
Dr. Elie Abouaoun, opening remarks: Director of Middle East and North Africa Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Sultan Barakat: Founding Director, Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies
Dr. Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, opening remarks: Director of Politics and Governance, ODI
Mrs. Nadwa Al-Dawsari: Non-resident Fellow, The Middle East Institute
Mrs. Noor Qais: Program Officer, Sanad for Peacebuilding, Iraq
Dr. Sherine Taraboulsi-McCarthy, moderator: Interim Senior Research Fellow, The Politics and Governance Program (ODI)
4. Conversation on a ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control | October 14, 2020 | 11:30 AM—12:30 PM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
The last remaining U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreement, New START, is rapidly approaching its end. President Trump seeks a new agreement that includes China and covers all nuclear warheads. But is this approach feasible? If not, what provisions should be included in a successor to New START?
Please join us for a conversation with James Acton and Pranay Vaddi from Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, as they share insights from their new report: “A ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control: Enhancing Security Through Cooperation.” They will be joined by Alexei Arbatov, and Rose Gottemoeller as moderator.
Speakers:
James M. Acton: Jessica T. Mathews Chair and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program; senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Pranay Vaddi: Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Alexey Arbatov: Head of the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
Rose Gottemoeller: Distinguished Lecturer at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. Previously served as deputy secretary general of NATO.
5. Obstacles to a Free and Fair Presidential Election in Syria | October 14, 2020 | 16:00—17:30 EEST | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Syrian presidential elections are scheduled for 2021. President Bashar al-Assad and his close confidants have said that they will go ahead with the elections without a new constitution and irrespective of whether they meet the standards of the political process outlined in Security Council Resolution 2254.
Holding a fair presidential election would require many legislative changes, and new mechanisms to allow internally displaced persons and refugees to vote en masse. Adding to the complications at a practical level are the opaque and questionable voter rolls and a lack of appropriate voting procedures. Additionally, the political and security environment inside Syria would need to change significantly. Voters would need to feel that the election process is safe, fair, and legitimate. These conditions do not presently exist and achieving them requires far more than minor amendments to the electoral law and voting mechanisms. There is also a need to consider the role of elections as part of a successful peace or transition process. Legitimizing elections prematurely would likely do more harm than good.
What precisely would a fair election in Syria look like? What are the voting options available for those residing outside Syria? What are the practical tasks and timelines required for achieving a free and fair election in Syria—decoupled from arbitrary timelines? Join us on Wednesday, October 14 from 4:00–5:30 p.m. Beirut (3:00-4:30 p.m. CEST) to discuss the upcoming presidential election in Syria. The discussion will be held on Zoom in English with simultaneous interpretation to Arabic. To join, please register for the event here.
Speakers:
Assaad Al-Achi: executive director of Baytna Syria.
Sead Alihodzic: senior programme manager with the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Dima Moussa: member of the Syrian Opposition Coalition.
Vladimir Pran: senior technical adviser for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.
Emma Beals: senior advisor at the European Institute of Peace and is an independent consultant focused on Syria.
6. Why Denouncing White Supremacy Creates Safety, Security, and Racial Equity | October 14, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
During the first presidential debate, President Donald Trump avoided an explicit denouncement of white supremacists and instead asked them to “stand down and stand by.” These remarks were reminiscent of his statement after the deadly 2017 white supremacist rally in Charlottesville when he said that there were “very fine people on both sides.” Racist rhetoric from government officials, including calls to incite voter intimidation and promote civil unrest, are sadly not unprecedented in American history. In fact, the increasing use of social media among white supremacists for hate speech, along with the racial and ethnic tribalization surfacing over the last few years, have stifled the country’s attempts to combat racism and systemic inequalities.
While white supremacist groups are finding a geopolitical landscape that has grown more supportive of their rhetoric and activities, Black Americans are also exercising resistance and resilience in light of recent alarming statements. Like the historic civil rights movement, Black Lives Matter has drawn Americans to grapple with contemporary nationalism. America is now in fragile times that deserve the attention of federal, state, and local policies to confront white supremacy and other historical vestiges standing in the way of racial healing and reconciliation.
On October 14, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a conversation on the roots of white supremacy, the impact of racist rhetoric during critical moments in history, and how Black Americans, as well as other people of color, have responded and continue to respond. Panelists will also offer policy recommendations for how the country can promote racial empathy and redress the symptoms of power, race, and privilege, which will be critical issues facing the next administration.
Speakers:
Nicol Turner Lee, moderator: Senior Fellow – Governance StudiesDirector – Center for Technology Innovation
John Allen: President – The Brookings Institution
Keisha N. Blain: Associate Professor of History – University of Pittsburgh2020-2021 Fellow, Carr Center for Human Rights Policy – Harvard University
Fredrick C. Harris: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Darrell M. West: Vice President and Director – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation
7. Examining the EU-Iran-US Triangle | October 15, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Since the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement in May 2018, France, Germany and the UK (the E3 countries) have been under pressure from both Washington and Tehran. The Trump administration has tried unsuccessfully to gain E3 support for its sanctions-based maximum pressure policy, including the extension of the arms embargo on Iran resulting in tensions at the UN Security Council. Tehran has been pressuring the bloc for economic aid and sanctions relief while lobbying the E3 to save the JCPOA and defend Iranian interests. Within Iran, leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei have been particularly critical of the E3 and called for Iran to build stronger ties with more dependable states like China.
Frustrated by Tehran’s destabilising regional activities and escalation of its uranium enrichment program and Washington’s unilateral approach, the E3 has maintained unity on its JCPOA strategy. It has not however been able to provide meaningful political and economic solutions, resolve differences between Tehran and Washington, or address the many outstanding bilateral issues on the table.
In this webinar, organized by the Middle East Institute and Chatham House’s MENA Programme, speakers will discuss and unpack the triangular challenges and opportunities for Washington, Tehran, and the E3 and consider how the US presidential election might impact dynamics going forward.
Speakers:
Clément Therme: Post-doctoral research fellow, Nuclear Knowledges Program, Sciences Po; research associate, School for Advanced Studies in Social Sciences
Sanam Vakil: Deputy director and senior research fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Azadeh Zamirirad: Deputy head, Middle East and Africa Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Alex Vatanka, moderator: Director, Iran Program, Middle East institute
8. Lessons for Afghanistan from Colombia’s Peace Process | October 15, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Formal talks are underway between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban to end over four decades of violent conflict and instability. At this vital phase of the Afghan peace process, it’s important to draw lessons from recent negotiated settlements. The comprehensive settlement between the Colombian government and the FARC has become one of the most widely recognized examples of how a comprehensive peace process can address the root causes of violence and result in a political settlement. While the Colombian and Afghan conflicts are distinct in many ways, Colombia is an important reference point that could provide some valuable insights and an imperfect roadmap for Afghanistan.
There isn’t a single standard model for negotiations—but analyzing historical processes, understanding their application, and identifying opportunities to adapt to specific contexts can serve countries who seek to resolve and transform seemingly intractable conflicts.
Join USIP and the Embassy of Afghanistan for a discussion on important lessons from the Havana Process with the FARC, highlighting both the successes and shortcomings of the negotiation and its implementation. This is the first discussion in an ongoing series launched by the Embassy of Afghanistan that examines peace processes around the world. Panelists will explore the importance of political consensus building, how to address continued violence, the role of neighboring countries and third-party facilitators, among other pressing issues.
Speakers:
Scott Worden, welcoming remarks: Director of Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
Her Excellency Roya Rahmani: Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to the United States
Bernard W. Aronson: Founder and Managing Partner, ACON Investments. Former U.S. Special Envoy to the Colombian Peace Process
Humberto de la Calle: Former Colombian Government Chief Negotiator, Former Vice President of Colombia
Sergio Jaramillo: Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace. Former Colombian High Commissioner for Peace
Dag Nylander: Director, Section for Peace and Reconciliation, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Former Norwegian Special Envoy to the Colombia
Alejo Vargas Velásquez: Director of the Center on the Peace Process, Vice Dean on Research, Faculty of Law, Political and Social Sciences, National University
Belquis Ahmadi, moderator: Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace
Paula Garcia-Tufro, moderator: Project Director, U.S. Institute of Peace
9. Russia and China: Common interests and rivalry in South Caucasus and Central Asia | October 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Russia’s recent Kavkaz 2020 military exercises have demonstrated the scale and scalability of Russian military capabilities in the broader Caspian region. A number of other states, including China and Iran, also took part in Kavkaz 2020, which was an impressive show of military force. The recent renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan have underlined the fluid power politics of the region where Moscow’s once dominant position is under question.
Is such multilateral military cooperation a signal of a genuine deepening of Russian-Chinese understanding and cooperation in this part of the world that Moscow has for so long considered to be its “near abroad”? What is the nature of the Russian-Chinese relationship overall in and around the Caspian region; what are the areas of complementarity and how much of the joint Russian-Chinese efforts are aimed at countering American and other Western interests?
Speakers:
Mark Galeotti: Non-resident scholar, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Bruce Pannier: Senior Central Asia correspondent, RFE/RL; editor, Qishloq Ovozi blog
Niva Yau: Resident researcher, OSCE Academy in Bishkek; fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Alex Vatanka, moderator: Director, Iran Program; senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
10. Russia’s War in Donbas: Ripe for a Resolution? | October 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
More than six years after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, there is little evident movement toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The implementation of a package of measures dubbed the “Minsk II” process—which calls for a cease-fire, troop withdrawal, the return of border control to Kyiv, and local elections—is bogged down. Both Ukraine and the international community are looking for new solutions that would bring about a long-awaited peace.
Join USIP and prominent experts and policymakers for a discussion on possible solutions for resolving the ongoing conflict. The event will look at the current status of peace negotiations, as well as what a settlement might look like, the war’s political and social consequences and how COVID-19 has exacerbated its effects, and how regional dynamics—including instability in neighboring Belarus—have the potential to influence Ukraine’s security situation.
Speakers:
Ambassador William B. Taylor: Vice President, Office of Strategic Stability and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
George Kent: Deputy Assistant Secretary, European and Eurasian Bureau, U.S. State Department (to be confirmed)
Orysia Lutsevych: Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House
Oleksii Reznikov: Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine
Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko : Ambassador, Embassy of Ukraine to the United States
Donald Jensen, moderator: Director, Office of Strategic Stability and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Peace Picks | September 21 – September 25, 2020
1. Global China: Examining China’s Approach to Global Governance and Norms | September 21, 2020 | 9:30 – 10:45 AM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Over the last several years, the world has seen China taking on more responsibility and power in international institutions. China’s growing activism has provided a glimpse into its ambitions to assert a greater role for itself on matters of global governance. China’s growing activism also has raised key questions about the scale of Beijing’s ambitions and the tools it would be willing to use to advance them.
On September 21, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a webinar to address these and other questions concerning China’s evolving approach to international institutions, rules, and norms. The event will launch the next tranche of Brookings papers released as part of its series “Global China: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World.” From human rights to energy to trade, these papers present a range of arguments for observers of China and policymakers to consider as they evaluate China’s role on the international stage.
Viewers can submit questions by emailing events@brookings.edu or by joining the conversation on Twitter with #GlobalChina.
Speakers:
Jeffrey Feltman: John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy – Foreign Policy
Lindsey W. Ford: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Sophie Richardson: China Director – Human Rights Watch
David O. Shullman: Senior Advisor – International Republican InstituteAdjunct Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security
Patrick W. Quirk: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
2. Reporting on 2020: Free Press, Disinformation, and Election Integrity | September 21, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
A free and independent press is essential to open societies and functioning democracies. As elections draw nearer in the United States, media is navigating how to provide the public with the facts in an information environment unlike any before. The coming months will include an election with increased vote-by-mail due to the ongoing pandemic, the continued attempts of foreign adversaries to interfere in the elections, political operatives undermining the credibility of journalism, misinformation — and more malicious disinformation — about all of it.
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab on Monday, September 21 from 1:00-2:00pm ET for a discussion with leading journalists and editors on their role in the integrity of the upcoming election. We will speak with these expert journalists and editors, experienced in covering national security, technology, and elections, on their approach to delivering fact-based news to sustain an informed public, as well as avoiding the amplification of disinformation in a landscape rife with it.
Speakers:
Andy Carvin: Resident Senior Fellow, Digital Forensics Research Lab
Stacy-Marie Ishmael: Editorial Director, Texas Tribune
Ellen Nakashima: National Security Reporter, Washington Post
Brandy Zadrozny: Reporter, NBC News
3. Ecological Threats to Peace | September 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Global warming, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels are already adversely affecting food and water security throughout the world—leaving the least resilient countries with an increased risk of political instability, social fragmentation, and economic collapse. A more accurate measurement of levels of exposure to tomorrow’s ecological threats is key to helping these countries maintain peace today and can enable others to better prepare and adapt for the future.
The new Ecological Threat Register (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, synthesizes and visualizes data on environmental indicators to estimate which countries, regions, and areas are most vulnerable to environment-induced conflict. In particular, the ETR underscores that 141 countries are vulnerable to ecological threats, and that approximately 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by ecological disasters in the next 30 years.
Join USIP and the Institute for Economics and Peace for a look at the inaugural Ecological Threat Register, as experts explore the nexus between conflict and climate change and consider strategies for boosting resilience to climate-induced insecurity. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #EcoThreat2020.
Speakers:
Sagal Abshir: Non-Resident Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University
Michael Collins: Executive Director, Institute for Economics & Peace
Dr. Joseph Hewitt: Vice President for Policy, Learning and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Catherine-Lune Grayson: Policy Advisor, International Committee of the Red Cross
Tyler Beckelman: Director, International Partnerships, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. Whither the Middle East: More Conflict or New Peace? | September 23, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Lebanon is in chaos as it struggles to rebuild politically and physically. Tensions between Iran and the United States are again mounting over access to arms and their rivalry in the region, with fears of a showdown this fall. Syria is nearing a decade of war, with no imminent prospects of peace or reconciliation. ISIS still has an estimated 10,000 fighters menacing Iraq and Syria. Yet, amid these volatile times, Israel and the U.A.E. signed the first peace agreement in more than a quarter century. Where is the Middle East headed—toward more conflict or new peace?
Speakers:
Merissa Khurma: Program Manager, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars
Daniel Kurtzer: Former Ambassador to Israel and Egypt; Professor of Middle East Policy Studies at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Vali Nasr: Former Dean and Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Robin Wright: USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow; Journalist and Author
5. The Perils of Polarization in Southeast Asia | September 23, 2020 | 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Rising levels of political polarization are hurting democracy in many Southeast Asian countries. The coronavirus pandemic is only ratcheting up political pressures further. Drawing on a new Carnegie Endowment report, “Political Polarization in South and Southeast Asia: Old Divisions, New Dangers,” this event will examine two critical cases—Indonesia and Thailand—to gain a regional understanding of why polarization is increasing, its political effects, and how political and civic actors can take steps to address it.
This event is being held in collaboration with Freedom House.
Speakers:
Thomas Carothers: Senior Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is a leading authority on international support for democracy, human rights, governance, the rule of law, and civil society.
Janjira Sombatpoonsiri: Associate Fellow at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies and researcher at the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.
David Timberman: Director for Asia programs at Freedom House.
Eve Warburton: Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore.
6. COVID-19 and Cease-fires: What Have We Learned? | September 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
In March, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called for a global cease-fire to combat the spread of COVID-19. Though initially dismissed as unrealistic, the secretary-general’s call was surprisingly well-received: Nearly 70 countries, hundreds of nongovernmental organizations, and eminent persons joined in repeating the call for a humanitarian pause to address the growing pandemic. In response, several conflict parties announced unilateral cease-fires, including the National Democratic Front in the Philippines, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the National Liberation Army in Colombia. Two months later, the U.N. Security Council adopted resolution 2532, calling on conflict parties across the world to support a 90-day humanitarian cease-fire.
However, since then, it has been challenging for any bilateral or multilateral cease-fires related to the pandemic to materialize, despite the spread of COVID-19 to numerous conflict zones, including Yemen and Syria.
Join USIP for a timely discussion on the strategies needed to pursue effective cease-fires in conflict zones. Drawing from recent reports, including the recent USIP publication “Searching for COVID-19 Cease-fires: Conflict Zone Impacts, Needs, and Opportunities,” panelists will consider the correlation between political willpower and conflict resolution, how the secretary-general’s cease-fire appeal was perceived on the ground in conflict zones, and whether international pressure could make a difference in advancing the secretary-general’s call.
Speakers:
Roxaneh Bazergan: Senior Political Affairs Officer and Team Leader, Mediation Support Unit, U.N. Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs
Christine Bell: Professor of Constitutional Law and Assistant Principal, The University of Edinburgh School of Law
Ashish Pradhan: Senior Analyst, U.N. Advocacy and Research, International Crisis Group
Tyler Thompson: Senior Expert, Negotiations and Peace Process Support, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Security at the Maritime Edge | September 24, 2020 | 10:45 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
No global supply chain is independent of maritime transport and most are existentially dependent on it. In fact, greater than 90% of all global trade tonnage is transported by sea. While vulnerabilities in widely used software or control systems are a concern, the greater source of risk is systemic inadequacies in the public-private partnership for maritime cybersecurity and shortfalls of both capacity and coordination amongst critical stakeholders across the global security community. The lifeblood of global energy networks runs through the ocean. The cybersecurity of systems, from offshore renewable energy, to fossil fuel transport to major transshipment hubs, to floating production, storage, and offloading vessels, is an increasingly significant factor in the security of energy system as a whole.
To begin a conversation towards a strategy to address these issues, the Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative under the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security invites you to join us for a virtual discussion, “Security at the Maritime Edge” on Thursday, September 24th from 10:45am-12:00pm. The event will feature opening remarks from Rear Admiral Mark H. “Buz” Buzby (USN, Ret.), Maritime Administrator for the U.S. Department of Transportation and a panel moderated by Captain Jason Tama, Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard and featuring Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America; Dr. Xavier Bellekens, Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications, University of Strathclyde; Captain Alex Soukhanov, Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber; Mr. Kevin Stine, Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce; and Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar, Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Please join this conversation via the web application Zoom, which is accessible through your web browser, the Zoom desktop or mobile app, and by phone. If you wish to join the question and answer period, you must join by app or web. Register below receive further information on how to join the virtual audience.
Speakers:
Captain Jason Tama: Commander, Sector New York; Captain of the Port of New York and New Jersey, United States Coast Guard
Ms. Kathy J. Metcalf: President and Chief Executive Officer, Chamber of Shipping of America
Dr. Xavier Bellekens: Lecturer and Chancellor’s Fellow, Institute for Signals, Sensors, and Communications,University of Strathclyde
Captain Alex Soukhanov: Managing Director & Master Mariner, Moran Cyber
Ms. Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar: Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Mr. Kevin Stine: Chief of the Applied Cybersecurity Division, NIST U.S. Department of Commerce
8. The Catholic Church and Peacebuilding | September 24, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
For decades, the Catholic Church has served as a mediator in high-level negotiation efforts involving governments and nonviolent movements vying for human rights, democracy, and peace. With its deep connections to communities, institutional ties to governments, and global diplomatic status, the Catholic Church is uniquely positioned to help grassroots activists and peacebuilders collectively vocalize grievances and key demands while providing guidance and managing relationships with national and local governments. While this dual role has not been formally codified and varies based on context, it has implications for the Church’s ability to support people power movements, peace processes, and conflict prevention efforts globally.
The Church is able to advance peace globally by building strategic and tactical bridges between grassroots nonviolent action and peacebuilding actors, as well as investing in their development and capacity building. But this role is not without challenges. Can the Church serve as an effective mediator while openly denouncing human rights violations and government crackdowns against nonviolent activists? Is it possible for different Church actors to effectively assume different roles in the context of popular movements for peace and democracy? What does this look like practically and what can we learn from past cases?
Join USIP for an event that will explore how and where the Catholic Church is able—or has the potential—to effectively support peace processes and people power movements by operating at the grassroots, engaging at the formal level, and liaising in between. The speakers will share anecdotes and stories from their rich experiences, offering an opportunity to discuss current perspectives around violence prevention and conflict transformation in the Catholic Church.
Speakers:
Bishop Robert W. McElroy: Bishop of San Diego, Roman Catholic Diocese of San Diego
Scott Appleby: Marilyn Keough Dean, Professor of History, University of Notre Dame
Sergio Cabrales: Nicaraguan Fulbright Scholar and Graduate Student, University of Pittsburgh
Marie Dennis: Senior Advisor, Pax Christi International
Maria Stephan: Director, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
9. U.S. and the Middle East: Lessons from the Obama and Trump Administrations | September 24, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The U.S. administration that takes office in January 2021 will formulate policies toward the Middle East and North Africa amid rising great power competition, a shifting energy landscape, and a diminished public appetite for military interventions. What lessons can be learned from the experiences of the two previous administrations? Re-Engaging the Middle East, a new book of essays edited by Dafna Rand and Andrew Miller, takes up this question across a range of countries and thematic issues.
Join us on Thursday, September 24, for a panel discussion that will bring together former Obama and Trump administration officials alongside experts from the MENA region. Together, they will take a critical look at U.S. policies under both presidents with a view toward recommendations for the next administration.
Speakers:
Alexander Bick: research scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He served as Syria director at the National Security Council and on the policy planning staff under Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton and John Kerry.
Joyce Karam: Washington correspondent for the National and has covered American politics extensively since 2004, with a focus on U.S. policy towards the Middle East.
Mick Mulroy: Senior for National Security and Defense Policy at the Middle East Institute. He served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under Secretaries of Defense James Mattis and Mark Esper.
Dafna Rand: Served as deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s policy planning staff, and on the staff of the National Security Council.
Marwan Muasher: Vice President for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East.
10. The Fallout of the War in Syria | September 25, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:15 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Syrian conflict has been devastating both within the country and outside its borders. Neighboring Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq have all suffered from disproportionate social and economic impacts as well as a decrease in GDP. Trade and tourism have taken a hit, while poverty rates have increased and labor market conditions have deteriorated. Yet, the regional interdependence that has led to such negative impacts may also hold the answer to addressing these challenges. A regional approach could unlock creative solutions that ultimately bring stability and even prosperity.
Join USIP for an in-depth presentation and discussion of the World Bank’s new publication, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria.” The panel will include the report’s lead author as well as regional experts who will provide insight on the economic and social effects that the Syrian conflict has had on its neighbors.
Speakers:
Saroj Kumar Jha: Regional Director of the Mashreq Department, World Bank
Harun Onder: Senior Economist, World Bank; Lead Author, “The Fallout of War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria”
Randa Slim: Senior Fellow and Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute
Natasha Hall: Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor for Syria, Middle East, and North Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Peace Picks | July 13 – July 17, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- COVID-19 in the Middle East: An Opportunity to Improve Public Health? | July 13, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed fault lines in public health systems in the Middle East, where public health institutions vary widely. In Gulf states, citizens receive high quality health care, but the same is not true of foreign worker populations. Middle income countries in the region offer good health services to those who can afford them, while those who cannot have less or no access. In countries like Yemen and in Syria’s worn torn towns, nothing resembling a functioning health system, public or private, exists. The difficulty of supplying health services to refugees and displaced persons presents yet more difficulties. All this is not new, but the COVID crisis has afforded an opportunity to examine how access to health care plays out in a crisis. More importantly, the crisis can help guide domestic policymakers and international partners toward immediate and longer-term actions to improve public health delivery and prepare for the next crisis.
The Rafik Hariri Center and the United Nations Development Program’s Regional Bureau for Arab States are pleased to co-host a virtual discussion with experts who will not only discuss why the response to the pandemic has met with varying degrees of success, but will also address how policymakers and other stakeholders can better confront public health challenges of all kinds.
Speakers:
Dr. Adel Abdellatif: Deputy Regional Director, Regional Bureau for Arab States, United Nations Development Program
Dr. Lina AbiRafeh: Executive Director, Arab Institute for Women
Dr. Ali Mokdad: Director of Middle Eastern Initiatives and Professor of Global Health, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington - The United States, Russia, and China in the Time of Pandemic | July 13, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
The United States’ unipolar moment in the world—if it ever truly existed—is long gone. Instead the United States confronts a rising China and resentful Russia, both determined to check, if not roll back, U.S. influence regionally and globally. The pandemic will reinforce these trends and likely usher in a period of even greater competition and tension.
How should the United States respond to overt and covert challenges from Moscow and Beijing? And how important is growing strategic China-Russia cooperation on economic and security in this equation? Competition and tension seem all but inevitable, pushed forward by the domestic drivers of foreign policy. But are there prospects for détente or even meaningful episodic cooperation between the United States, China, and Russia on the issues that divide them?
Speakers:
Evan A Feigenbaum: Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Eugene Rumer: Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment
Susan Thornton: Senior Fellow, Yale Law School
Aaron David Miller: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment - COVID-19’s Economic Impact on Women | July 13, 2020 | 4:00 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
COVID-19 is a crisis like no other – and it is having a calamitous effect on women’s economic well-being. Please join the Atlantic Council for a conversation on how the coronavirus is disproportionately impacting women’s earning and income and worsening economic inequality around the world. Our experts will look at how COVID-19 is devastating women’s employment and entrepreneurship, as well exacerbating workplace and household challenges such as education, wage gaps, informality, childcare and domestic violence. During the panel the experts will discuss how policy options or business practices could mitigate these adverse consequences and promote greater gender equality as nations recover and rebuild.
Speakers:
Gina E. Wood (Welcoming Remarks): Vice President, Foundational & Institutional Giving, Atlantic Council
Raj Kumar (Moderator): President & Editor-in-Chief, Devex
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador-at-Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Dr. Nicole Goldin: Senior Fellow, Global Business & Economics PRogram, Atlantic Council
Henriette Kolb: Head, Gender Secretariat, International Finance Corporation, World Bank - Status and Priorities for Lebanon’s Political Transition | July 14, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Lebanon is on the brink of collapse due to its domestic economic and political crises, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Another failed state in the Middle East would negatively impact strategic US interests. Lebanon requires a thorough reorientation towards stability and renewed socio-economic sustainability, which entails fundamental domestic reforms and targeted international support led by the US. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) are pleased to co-host the public launch of a joint policy paper, Recommendations for a Sustainable Bilateral Relationship.
What are the strategic interests the US has in Lebanon’s stability, and how can the US support Lebanese prosperity? Is the Lebanese government’s new financial recovery plan sufficient for the US to initiate support for the government? In what ways can the US best support a strong future for Lebanon?
Speakers:
Ambassador Edward Gabriel (Co-Moderator): President & CEO, American Task Force for Lebanon
Paul Salem (Co-Moderator): President, Middle East Institute
Jean AbiNader: Policy Director, American Task Force for Lebanon
Congressman Darin LaHood: U.S. House of Representatives, Illinois’ 18th District
Paul Raphael: Founding Chair, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor to the Vice President of Middle East & Africa, United States Institute of Peace - Election Integrity & Security in the Era of COVID-19 | July 17, 2020 | 2:00 – 4:15 PM EST | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The threats that disinformation and foreign interference in U.S. elections pose are not new phenomena. In 2016, Russian interference exposed critical vulnerabilities in the United States’ digital election infrastructure, and its information operations sowed political divisions across America. Now, modifications to democratic processes due to the coronavirus pandemic make the task of safeguarding the integrity and security of the 2020 presidential election even more crucial.
How will inevitable adjustments to voting practices, due to COVID-19, affect the security of U.S. elections? What measures should we pursue to dissuade our adversaries from attempting to interfere? Are we adequately prepared to counter new tactics, techniques, and procedures they might employ? And what can the federal government do to ensure that every state and county has the means to conduct a fair and secure election?
Speakers:
Keynote
Christopher C. Krebs: Director, Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency, U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Panel 1: Safeguarding Election Security
Fiona Hill (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings Institution
David Becker: Executive Director, Center for Election Innovation & Research, Brookings Institution
Mark Harvey: Former Special Assistant to the President & Senior Director for Resilience Policy, National Security Council
Susan Hennessey: Senior Fellow, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution
Panel 2: Adapting to New Disinformation Tactics
Chris Meserole (Moderator): Deputy Director, Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, Brookings Institution
David Agranovich: Global Threat Disruption Lead, Facebook
Alina Polyakova: President & CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, Brookings Institution
Laura Rosenberger: Senior Fellow & Director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Gavin Wilde: Senior Analyst, Department of Defense
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Iranian parliamentary “elections”
February 21 marked the 11th Iranian parliamentary election. The Wilson Center hosted an event After Parliamentary Elections: Iran’s Political Future on February 26 with a panel of scholars to interpret the aftermath . Robin Wright, a USIP-Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow served as the moderator, with panel participation from Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, Ariane Tabatabai, Visiting Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Kenneth Katzman, Specialist on Middle East Affairs at the Congressional Research Service.
Wright stated the facts that led it to be considered the “most rigged Iranian election in history”:
- 90 sitting members of parliament were disqualified for reelection,
- only 19 reformists won seats (down from 121 in the 2016 elections),
- conservatives and hardliners won 221 of the 290 seats, comprising 76% of parliament, compared to 29% in 2016.
- voter turnout was poor due to dissatisfaction with the government about the downing of the Ukrainian plane and the public health threat of coronavirus.
Significance of this Parliament
Vaez cautioned against interpreting these election results as unprecedented. In 2004, the Guardian Council used similar tactics to disqualify 80 members of the parliament and paved the road to Ahmadinejad’s election in 2005. Tabatabai noted that the hardline win comes at a time of lower voter turnout, illustrating the widening gap between the population and the regime.
Vaez speculates that the push for a government-selected parliament is due to the Supreme Leader’s desire to conduct structural reforms. It would be more challenging to introduce constitutional reforms with a parliament ideologically opposed.
Katzman emphasized that the regime is by no means on its back feet. Is continuing its aggressive, confident stance. He pointed to the steps officials took to fix the election as an example of their resounding confidence. He pointed to Lebanon and Iraq as examples where political protests have resulted in resignations and government concessions. This has not occurred in Iran despite popular dissatisfaction with the leadership.
Militarization of Politics
Tabatabai and Vaez both noted that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) made monumental gains in this election. The next speaker of the parliament could be a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Tabatabai thinks the Guards aim centralize and reassert power. Katzman noted the increased ability for the IRGC to influence and project power in the region with more parliamentary support.
Vaez noted that Parliament, Majles, does not play a monumental role in foreign policy , but it can impeach members of the cabinet and withhold approval, leading to a lame duck presidency.
Presidential Elections : Impact of US Election on Iran
Vaez suggests that the election of a hardline president in 2021 depends mainly on two factors,
- The new elected Parliament’s performance and
- the 2020 elections in the United States.
If there is a US president whom the Iranian government believes it can negotiate with, Vaez doubts that Iran will elect someone like Ahmadinejad. The panelists emphasized the close knit nature of these two elections and the monumental global impacts they will have.
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Stevenson’s army, December 7
Remember Pearl Harbor! [A Daily Beast article debunks the revisionists.]
NDAA deal seems done. Nondefense issues part of the package, along with Space Force. [Post magazine has enthusiastic support of Space Force from a formerly skeptical reporter.
2020 election calendar — save it. Normally you can;t get into Politico Pro [$5K/yr] but they let us download the calendar.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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