Tag: Elections
Good election, big challenges
On October 29 the Middle East Institute (MEI) and Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosted an event entitled “Observations from the Tunisian Election.” Tunisian Ambassador Fayçal Gouia delivered the opening remarks and participated in the panel discussion. Georgetown Professor and North Africa specialist William Lawrence moderated the discussion. Panelists included Jeffrey England, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the National Democratic Institute (NDI), Patricia Karam, Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa division of the International Republican Institute (IRI), Sarah Yerkes, Middle East Fellow at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, and Thomas Hill, senior program officer for North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).
England emphasized that the joint election observation undertaken by NDI and IRI demonstrated several positive aspects of the Tunisian election. Despite the fact that the July 25 death of former President Essebsi required the election to be held sooner than originally planned, it was peaceful and administered professionally. England also highlighted that the Parliamentary and Presidential debates that were held for the first time are evidence that the democratic system continues to mature. He noted that while there are lingering questions about turnout in the election, there was a larger pool of voters in both rounds than expected. England felt that because President Kais Saied does not belong to a political party he may be better able to hold the parties in Parliament to account.
Karam agreed that the election observation demonstrated several positive developments but noted that Tunisia should amend several aspects of its electoral framework prior to the next election, including campaign finance regulations, media rules, and the interaction between the judicial and electoral systems. Polling shows a crisis of confidence in politicians, growing dissatisfaction with the democratic experiment, and the sense that Tunisian political parties lack a clear vision for economic reform. This dissatisfaction is particularly deep among Tunisian youth, with preliminary data showing that youth turnout in the election may have been as low as 16%. Karam believes Tunisians voted for Saied because they prioritized stability in government, even if it comes with older, more conservative ideas.
Yerkes argued that while Saied received 70% of the votes, giving him a strong mandate, the incarceration of his opponent Karoui during the election was a significant flaw in the democratic process. She believes the election was unquestionably free but does not think it was fair. Karoui’s incarceration highlighted the need for Tunisia to implement a system for absentee voting. The electoral law allows prisoners to vote but there is currently no mechanism for them to do so, meaning that Karoui was unable to vote for himself.
Several panelists agreed that Tunisia’s economy was the key issue in this election and will play a key role in the future of its democracy. Gouia stated that job creation and delivering economic reform will be the first priority of the new administration. England asserted that while the electorate’s main concern was revolution in 2011 and identity in 2014, now people want to see results, particularly on economic issues. Hill argued that the Tunisian social contract has shifted so that graduates expect the government to create jobs for them rather than being entrepreneurial. England agreed, stating that the economic problems cannot be solved before the next election. He felt that the government should focus on developing a long-term plan to reform the economy and attempt to reframe the people’s expectations so that they understand that economic change will take time.
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Peace Picks | October 7 – 11
A Vision for the Future of Missile Defense | October 7, 2019 | 9:30 am – 12:00 pm | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The CSIS Missile Defense Project is pleased to welcome Vice Admiral Jon Hill, Director of the Missile Defense Agency, to speak on his vision and intent for the Agency. An industry panel will follow his remarks.
Event Schedule
9:30-10:30 Conversation between VADM Jon Hill and Dr. Tom Karako, Director, Missile Defense Project.
10:30-10:40 Coffee break
10:40-12:00 Panel discussion featuring Sarah
Reeves, Vice President of Missile Defense Programs, Lockheed Martin
Space, John Schumacher, Vice President, Washington Operations,
Aerojet Rocketdyne, Paul Smith, Vice President and Program
Director of GMD, Boeing, Dr. Mitch Stevison, Vice President,
Raytheon Missile Systems, and Brig. Gen. Kenn Todorov (USAF, ret.), Vice
President of Missile Defense Solutions, Northrop Grumman Corporation.
More than a Wallet: The Role of the Private Sector in Development | October 7, 2019 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The international community predominately sees the private sector as the answer to the gap in financing for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but what other roles can the private sector play in development? Large multinational corporations have been operating in some of the most fragile contexts for years and could offer technical assistance to NGOs and aid agencies. The private sector also supplies 9 out of 10 jobs in developing countries and can help encourage foreign direct investment. Development agencies could also learn from the private sector’s longstanding and resilient value chains throughout emerging markets. This event will explore these topics and feature representatives from the U.S. government, multinational corporations, SMEs, and development practitioners.
FEATURING
CEO, CollaborateUp
Senior Vice President, Middle East and North Africa, Chemonics International
Senior Advisor, mClinica
Private Sector Engagement Coordinator, USAID
New Strategic Visions and Power Competition in the Middle East |October 8, 2019 | 9:00 am | Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 | Register Here
In collaboration with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the conference will discuss new strategic visions and power competition in the Middle East. The event is organized within the framework of the fifth edition of MED – Rome Mediterranean Dialogues, which will take place later this year in Rome.
The growing power of China and the renewed assertiveness of Russia seem to be a prelude to a new phase of depreciation of Western impact on the rest of the world, if not the opening of a great competition for the redistribution of power and international status. In the context of this global reassessment, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, illustrated by the current collapse of the Middle Eastern order. The idea of a “Russian resurgence’” in the Middle East set against an American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike and warrants further examination of renewed power competition in the region.
We hope you will join us for this important event, which will also mark the release of a new collected volume, “The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition,” edited by Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli.
9:00 a.m. Introductory remarks
Amb. Giampiero Massolo
President
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
H.E. Armando Varicchio
Ambassador
Embassy of Italy to the United States
9:30 a.m. Update on current US strategy toward the region
Mr. David Schenker
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
10:15 a.m. Transatlantic foreign policy in the MENA region
Amb. Barbara Leaf
Senior Fellow
The Washington Institute
Dr. Haizam Amirah-Fernández
Senior Analyst
Elcano Royal Institute
Mr. William Wechsler
Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs
Atlantic Council
11:40 a.m. New policies for old actors: Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey
Dr. Jon Alterman
Director, Middle East Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Dr. Mark N. Katz
Nonresident Senior Fellow
Atlantic Council
Dr. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi
Research Fellow
Royal United Services Institute
Dr. Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies
Middle East Institute
1:00 p.m. Lunch Served
1:20 – 2:30 p.m. Keynote Address: A new strategic vision for the United States
Gen. Joseph Votel
Former Commander
US Central Command (CENTCOM)
Moderators
Dr. Karim Mezran
Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council
Dr. Arturo Varvelli
Senior Research Fellow and Co-Head, Middle East and North Africa Center
ISPI
The Global Challenge of Political Polarization | October 8, 2019 | 12:15 pm – 1:45 pm | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Political polarization is tearing at the seams of democracies around the world, from Bangladesh, Brazil, and India, to Poland, Turkey, and the United States. Why is polarization coming to a boil in so many different places at once? Is polarization similar everywhere or marked by substantial differences? How can severely divided democracies restore at least some national political consensus? Are there relevant lessons for the United States from polarized democracies elsewhere? Thomas Carothers will address these questions, drawing on the new book he has co-edited with Andrew O’Donohue, Democracies Divided: The Global Challenge of Political Polarization. Anne Applebaum, Naomi Hossain, and Sarah Yerkes will provide in-depth perspectives on key country cases.
THOMAS CAROTHERS
Thomas Carothers is senior vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In that capacity he oversees all of the research programs at Carnegie. He also directs the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program and carries out research and writing on democracy-related issues.
ANNE APPLEBAUM
Anne Applebaum is a columnist for the Washington Post and a Pulitzer-prize winning historian. She is also a senior fellow at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University.
NAOMI HOSSAIN
Naomi Hossain is a political sociologist at the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex, currently based at the Accountability Research Center at American University. She is the author of The Aid Lab: Understanding Bangladesh’s Unexpected Success.
SARAH YERKES
Sarah Yerkes is a fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.
CARLOS LOZADA
Carlos Lozada is the nonfiction book
critic of the Washington Post and a Carnegie Endowment visiting
scholar. He is also an adjunct professor of political journalism with the
University of Notre Dame’s Washington program.
Trade, Development, and Security: A Discussion on the Potential of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am | Middle East Institute, 1763 N St. NW Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host an event addressing the possibility of a US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement within the wider context of Egyptian development, economy, and security. A US-Egypt Free Trade Agreement has been under discussion, on and off, for the better part of two decades. A new report launched by MEI, “Trade, Reform and Revitalization: Towards a Free Trade Agreement,” finds that a free trade agreement would be mutually beneficial, but its success will depend on the adoption of the kind of reforms integral to the growth of Egypt’s economy. Without vibrant growth, powered by an active private sector, Egypt’s economy may falter, affecting its political and economic stability and security.
To address this topic, CEO of the AmCham Egypt Inc in
Egypt Hisham Fahmy will be accompanied by Deborah Lehr,
CEO of Basilinna, and Mirette F. Mabrouk, the director of MEI’s
Egypt Studies program. Ambassador Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s senior
Vice President, will moderate the discussion.
Belt and Road in Latin America: Where does the future lie? | October 9, 2019 | 9:00 am – 10:30 am| 1030 15th St NW 12th Floor, Washington DC, 20005 | Register Here
Over the past six years, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded across the globe, drawing varied reactions ranging from full-on support to deep-running skepticism. Latin America and the Caribbean, long considered peripheral to the BRI, is increasingly engaging with the initiative – 19 countries have already signed on. As BRI continues to evolve, what are some new areas and trends to watch? What are the implications of BRI for regional governments and the business community? In what ways could BRI affect the United States and its interests?
Join the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center on Wednesday, October 9, 2019, from 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. (EDT) for a high-level conversation on the BRI in Latin America and its implications for the region.
*Speakers to be Announced*
By, With, and Through: A Closer Look at CENTCOM’s Approach in the Middle East | October 10, 2019 | 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036 | Register Here
The effective prosecution of America’s new global priority of competing with China and Russia requires the reallocation of U.S. military resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere. This in turn places a higher premium on U.S. security cooperation with partners in the Middle East.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)’s “By, With, and Through” approach can help further the goals of security cooperation and specifically develop closer ties with partner forces in the region. But is it working? And if it isn’t, what are the main challenges both at home and abroad, and what will it take to generate better results?
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to convene a
panel of experts to reflect on this subject. Bilal Y. Saab, MEI’s Senior
Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program, will discuss some of
the key findings of an upcoming publication in the 2019 Fall issue of The
Washington Quarterly entitled, “Broken Partnerships: Can Washington
Get Security Cooperation Right?.” He will be joined by General Joseph
Votel, former CENTCOM Commander and currently a nonresident distinguished
senior fellow at MEI; Dana Stroul, senior fellow in The Washington
Institute’s Beth and David Geduld Program on Arab Politics; and Kenneth
Pollack, author of Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab
Military Effectiveness and a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute. The conversation will be moderated by Eric Schmitt of
the New York Times.
Elections, Peace Talks, and U.S. Policy: What’s Next for Afghanistan? | October 10, 2019 |1:00 pm — 2:30 pm | One Woodrow Wilson Plaza 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004 6th Floor, Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
Eighteen years after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan, the country is not only still at war—it is also in a state of flux. Its political future is uncertain, with the final results of a September 28 presidential election not expected until November. The fate of a fledgling peace and reconciliation process has been unclear since U.S. President Donald Trump called off talks with the Taliban. The direction of U.S. policy, and particularly the future American military presence, is also a major question. This event will take stock of Afghanistan’s various challenges amid so much uncertainty; discuss what we can expect to see in the coming weeks and months; and consider the best—and worst—ways forward for Kabul and Washington.
Speakers
Independent Consultant
Director, Center for Stability and Development, CNA Corporation
Journalist and TV Host, Voice of America
Senior Program Officer for Afghanistan, U.S. Institute of Peace
Social Activist and Co-Founder, Her Afghanistan
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Peace Picks July 22-July 28
1. Ground Truth Briefing: Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections|July 22, 2019|10:00am-11:00am|Wilson Center|1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
Ukraine will hold its parliamentary elections to the Supreme Rada on Sunday July 21. These elections will shape the course of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s policies and whether he will have a majority in the parliament to fulfill his ambitious agenda.
In this Ground Truth Briefing, experts will analyze the results of the parliamentary elections and discuss what they will mean for Ukraine and the Zelenskyy administration.
Speakers
Introduction:
Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Moderator:
William E. Pomeranz, Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
Speakers:
Mykhailo Minakov, Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog
Victor Andrusiv, Executive Director, Ukrainian Institute for the Future
Olena Lennon, Title VIII-Supported Short-Term Scholar, Adjunct Professor of Political Science and National Security, University of New Haven
2. Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation|July 22, 2019|12:00pm|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC|Register Here
At a time of rising tensions between the United States and Iran, various active opposition groups among Iran’s exiled communities, each with their own unique ideology, continue to bid for the position of powerful alternative to the Islamic Republic. Largely fragmented, these opposition groups and their figures have had limited success in posing a real challenge to Tehran’s establishment. The Islamic Republic, however, has continued to view them as an existential threat. To discuss the realities, perceptions, and impact of these groups, please join us for a panel discussion that will also mark the release of a new issue brief, “Beyond Control: Iran and its Opponents Locked in a Lopsided Confrontation.” The issue brief, written by Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow Borzou Daragahi, sketches out the landscape of the various major political opposition groups in Iran and addresses the question of why Iran perceives them as such a challenge.
The discussion will be held July 22, 2019 from 12:00 to 1:30 pm at the Atlantic Council. The event is open to press and on the record.
Introductory Remarks:
General James L. Jones, USMC (Ret.), Executive Chairman Emeritus, Chairman, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
A conversation with:
Borzou Daragahi, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Nader Uskowi, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Jonathan Winer, Scholar, Middle East Institute
Moderated by:
Suzanne Kianpour, Foreign Affairs & Political Journalist, BBC News
3. Employment and Reintegration for Returnees & At-Risk Populations in Afghanistan|July 23, 2019|9:00am-10:30am|Center for Strategic and International Studies|1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
A negotiated settlement may be the only solution to end the 18 years of war in Afghanistan. Though peace is possible, it feels like a distant hope. Afghans and others are cautiously talking about life after armed conflict, but a much-desired peace brings its own challenges. Chiefly among them is to address the livelihood needs of former fighters, some 2 million returned refugees, more than 2.5 million internally displaced persons, and many other vulnerable people.
The panel of distinguished experts will discuss challenges, options, and opportunities as Afghanistan attempts to address employment for these at-risk segments of the population. During the panel session, Dean Piedmont of Creative Associates will present a white paper on disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of former fighters in the country.
FEATURING
H.E. Roya Rahmani, Ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States
Dean Piedmont, Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration Expert, Creative Associates International
Earl Anthony Wayne, Former Deputy U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan
Rohullah Osmani, Visiting Scholar, Johns Hopkins University SAIS & ADB North America
Yesim Oruc, Deputy Director, UNDP Washington Office
Nitin Madhav, Acting Deputy Assistant Administrator, USAID Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs
4. America’s Highly Skilled Workforce, the Talent Pipeline, and H-1B Visas|July 23, 2019|10:00am-12:00pm|Wilson Center|1300 Pennsylvania NW, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
Shortages of highly skilled professionals are one of the most significant challenges for industries across the United States. Many observers believe that government and industry-led training initiatives, access to high-skilled foreign nationals, and robust STEM education programs can and should be part of the solution.
Please join the Wilson Center’s Asia Program and NASSCOM, along with the Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program, for a discussion on current talent challenges and how best to address them. The event will launch new reports produced by IHS Markit on H-1B visas and the global IT services industry; include expert analysis of the issues that companies are experiencing with the visa program; and feature exploration of industry and government workforce and STEM education initiatives.
Agenda
Welcome/Introductory Comments
Jane Harman, Director, President, and CEO, The Wilson Center
Opening Remarks
Ambassador Harsh Shringla, Indian Ambassador to the United States
Session 1: Presentation of IHS research findings
Karen Campbell, Associate Director—Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit
Michael Kugelman, Asia Program Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia, The Wilson Center (moderator)
Session 2: The H-1B Visa Program and Implications for the U.S. Economy
Stuart Anderson, Executive Director, National Foundation for American Policy
Jon Baselice, Executive Director, Immigration Policy, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Spencer Abraham, Former U.S. Energy Secretary and Senator (moderator)
Session 3: Industry and Government Training and STEM Education
Robin Fernkas, Acting Deputy Administrator, Office of Workforce Investment, Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department of Labor
Robin Wright, Director, Division of Undergraduate Education, Directorate for Education and Human Resources, National Science Foundation
Kapil Sharma, Vice President for Government and Public Affairs North America, Wipro
Elizabeth Newbury, Director, Serious Games Initiative, Science and Technology Innovation Program, The Wilson Center (moderator)
Closing Remarks
Debjani Ghosh, President, NASSCOM
5. Security and Foreign Policy in 2020: A Conversation with Washington Journalists|July 23, 2019|5:30pm-6:30pm|Center for Strategic and International Studies|1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Join the Center for Strategic and International Studies for a Smart Women, Smart Power conversation with four Washington-based journalists to discuss foreign policy and security issues in the 2020 campaign.
Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, Venezuela, global migration, and immigration are just a few of the international issues that have dominated the headlines this year, but just how much of a factor will they be in next year’s presidential election remains to be seen. The panel will also explore the potential impact of disinformation and malign influence efforts on media coverage of all campaign 2020 issues.
FEATURING
Helene Cooper, The New York Times
Susan B. Glasser, The New Yorker
Jennifer Griffin, FOX News Channel
Lara Seligman, Foreign Policy
6. 9thAnnual South China Sea Conference|July 24, 2019|9:00am-4:45pm|Center for Strategic and International Studies|1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Ninth Annual South China Sea Conference on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. This full-day conference will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of developments in the South China Sea over the past year and potential paths forward. Panels will address the state of play in the South China Sea, the history and historiography of disputes in the South China Sea, pathways for dispute management, and the global stakes related to the South China Sea.
9:00 a.m. Morning Keynote
9:45 a.m. State of Play in the South China Sea
Evan Laksmana, Senior Researcher, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta
Huong Le Thu, Senior Analyst, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Gregory B. Poling, Director, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative; Fellow, Southeast Asia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Liu Xiaobo, Associate Research Fellow; Director, World Navy Research Center, National Institute for South China Sea Studies
Moderator
Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
11:00 a.m. Coffee Break
11:15 a.m. How Did We Get Here? History and Historiography
Kavi Chongkittavorn, Senior Fellow,Institute of Security and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University
Bill Hayton, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Stein Tønnesson, Research Professor,Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Marites Vitug, Editor-at-Large, Rappler
Moderator
Amy Searight, Senior Adviser and Director, Southeast Asia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
12:30 p.m. Lunch Served
1:15 p.m. Lunch Keynote
Admiral Scott H. Swift, U.S. Navy (Ret.), Former Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet
2:00 p.m. Pathways for Dispute Management
Jay Batongbacal, Associate Professor; Director, Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, University of the Philippines
Lan Nguyen, Assistant Professor, Utrecht University School of Law
Prashanth Parameswara, Senior Editor,The Diplomat
Ian Storey, Senior Fellow, ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute
Moderator
Gregory Poling, Director, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and Fellow, Southeast Asia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
3:15 p.m. Coffee Break
3:30 p.m. Global Stakes
Pooja Bhatt, PhD Candidate, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Sarah Kirchberger, Researcher, Center for Asia-Pacific Strategy and Security, Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK)
Toshihiro Nakayama, Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University
Bec Strating
Senior Lecturer, Politics, La Trobe University; Asia Studies Visiting Fellow, East-West Center in Washington
Moderator
Michael J. Green
Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS; Director of Asian Studies, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
4:45 p.m. Adjourn
7. US-Japan-Australia Infrastructure Collaboration in the Indo-Pacific: Opportunities and Obstacles|July 25, 2019|10:30am-12:00pm|Stimson Center|1211 Connecticut Ave NW 8thFloor, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Infrastructure needs in developing Asia are vast: the Asian Development Bank estimates that $26 trillion is needed through 2030. Bridging this infrastructure gap will require significantly increased engagement and public spending from governments, assistance from donor governments and international financial institutions, and—most importantly—unlocking investment from the private sector. The Free and Open Indo-Pacific has a focus on supporting high-quality infrastructure as a sustainable and economical alternative to China’s Belt and Road state-driven investments, but FOIP goals and approaches differ significantly between the United States and its allies Japan and Australia.
How can these allies coordinate effectively to ensure a sustainable infrastructure future for the Indo-Pacific region? Deputy Head of Mission Katrina Cooper from the Australian Embassy will kick off the conversation with opening remarks. Emerging experts Dr. Huong Le, Courtney Weatherby, and Hiroshi Yasui will explore the context of FOIP infrastructure engagements from each country and discuss specific obstacles and opportunities to collaborate moving forward. The panel discussion will be moderated by Vice President for Policy Marc Mealy of the US – ASEAN Business Council and the discussion will be followed by a Q&A session. This event is part of the Building the Indo-Pacific series, which convenes thought-leaders from the US, ASEAN, and other Indo-Pacific countries to promote messaging around key FOIP infrastructure and development programs.
These experts include:
Marc Mealy, Senior Vice-President for Policy at the US-ASEAN Business Council (MODERATOR)
Katrina Cooper, Deputy Head of Mission from the Australian Embassy
Dr. Huong Le Thu, Senior Analyst, Australia Strategic Policy Institute
Courtney Weatherby, Research Analyst, Stimson Center Southeast Asia Program
Hiroshi Yasui, Infrastructure Finance Expert and Summer Intern Researcher at the Stimson Center
8. The Value of Our Veterans: A Conversation with Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) and Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH) on Reforming the VA|July 26, 2019|8:15am-10:00am|American Enterprise Institute|1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
The Department of Veterans’ Affairs (VA) is at the heart of the nation’s care for veterans. Yet despite its best intentions, the VA struggles to adequately equip veterans with resources that enable them to flourish after service. How can the VA better assist veterans reentering the workforce while also combating the damaging “broken veteran” narrative?
Please join AEI for a discussion with House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity Chairman Mike Levin (D-CA) and Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH), sponsors of the VET OPP Act, as they tackle this question. Following their remarks, an expert panel will explore how the VA can modernize its approach to veterans’ transition programs.
Agenda
8:00 AM Registration
8:15 AM Introduction:
Gary J. Schmitt, AEI
8:20 AM Remarks:
Mike Levin, Chairman of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity (D-CA)
8:30 AM Remarks:
Brad Wenstrup, US House of Representatives (R-OH)
8:40 AM Discussion:
Mike Levin, Chairman of the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity (D-CA)
Leo Shane, Military Times
Brad Wenstrup, US House of Representatives (R-OH)
8:55 AM Q&A
9:00 AM Panel discussion
Participants:
Rebecca Burgess, AEI
Cynthia L. Gilman, Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine
Mike Hutchings, Combined Arms
Rory Riley-Topping, Riley-Topping Consulting
Moderator:
Leo Shane, Military Times
9:45 AM Q&A
10:00 AM Adjournment
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Winds of change in Baghdad?
- Will Abadi win a majority?
With the Dawa Party split and no clear allies at his side, Haider al-Abadi’s future as Prime Minster is in doubt without a strong showing by his Victory Alliance at the ballot box. While an electoral win doesn’t necessarily mean taking the premiership (as happened to Ayad Allawi in 2010), the knives will be out for Abadi without a clear victory. - Will Maliki be eclipsed by Ameri?
Even if Abadi’s coalition wins a plurality as polling predicts, there is a second contest for leadership in Shiite politics. Nouri al-Maliki, once “Saddam of the Shiites,” has seen his position sharply decline since his ouster in 2014. Maliki is attempting his comeback at the head of a diminished State of Law Coalition, but his rise is challenged by the entry of militia leader Hadi al-Ameri into politics, who is contesting the position as Iran’s most stringent ally in Iraq. While the Ameri and his alliance of Shiite militias are certain to be a force to be reckoned with no matter the results, a poor showing for Maliki would complete his fall into irrelevance. - Will Hakim and Sadr’s rebranding pay dividends?
One of the more surprising developments in Iraqi politics has been attempts by Shiite leaders to break away from the sectarian narrative toward a reformist angle – a trend evident in ISCI head Ammar al-Hakim abandoning his former party (Iran’s old favorite) and Moqtada al-Sadr’s shock alliance with the (questionably relevant) Iraqi Communist Party. Expect this populist trend to continue if Hakim and Sadr prove it can sway voters. - Is this the debut of a Kurdish opposition?
The disastrous results of last year’s independence referendum, adding to dissatisfaction with runaway corruption in the Kurdistan Regional Government, have greatly damaged the reputation of Iraq’s top Kurdish parties. Tomorrow’s parliamentary elections feature the first test for the newly-formed Nishtiman (Homeland) List, a coalition of Kurdish parties seeking to challenge the traditional KDP-PUK duopoly in regional elections this September. Whether or not Nishtiman emerges with more seats over their rivals, a good performance might enable Baghdad to shut out the traditional Kurdish powers in forming a government. - Is the PUK done for?
Compounding their existing problems, the PUK is weakened by a lingering succession crisis in the wake of Jalal Talabani’s death last October, which led to PUK majordomo Barham Salih’s defection to form his own party. More so than the KDP, the PUK has been on a decline since 2014 – if their voters don’t show up tomorrow the PUK’s influence in Baghdad may be at an end. - Will small parties earn enough to gain influence?
With no existing coalition predicted to win an absolute majority, small parties – the kind that have never tasted political power in Baghdad – could play an outsized role in forming a government. With the prospects of a 2010-style grand Shiite coalition unlikely, small parties could emerge as kingmakers with the latitude to push government in novel directions. - Will turnout be down?
While Iraq is at peace since the defeat of ISIS, the devastation brought by the conflict remains. While Baghdad has designed a system to allow displaced persons to vote in their home elections at any polling station across the country, with an estimated two million people still displaced across Iraq it is unlikely that voter turnout will reach the 62% of previous elections. A reasonable turnout in formerly ISIS-held areas will show if Iraq’s Sunnis have faith in the system to deliver results. - Will violence be down?
With ISIS defeated as a military force, Baghdad’s stage-managing of elections without violence will show the extent of their victory over terrorism. Iraq has never seen parliamentary elections entirely free of terrorist attacks, so even low levels will be a telling sign. - Will there be accusations of fraud?
Since 2014, Baghdad adopted a system of electronic voting equipped with biometric detectors as a means to deter low-level voter fraud. While this may succeed in deterring simple forms of fraud, we will see if it lessens accusations thereof. The existence of vote-buying by prominent parties is widely understood, a fact which a losing party could use as an excuse to delegitimize results.
Ultimately, however, what we learn from the electoral results will be only half of the story – the real test will be in the government formation negotiations to follow. But tomorrow’s elections will set the stage for a new order in Baghdad, and potentially major developments for Iraqi democracy.
PS: For more context, here is the half-hour VoA Encounter show Dr. Daniel Serwer did with Bilal Wahab and Carol Castiel Thursday, before the election:
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Rocking the female Saudi vote
On Thursday, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) hosted a panel discussion, ‘Women and Elections in Saudi Arabia’, discussing the December 12 elections for municipal councils, which is the first time women in the Kingdom have been able both to stand as candidates and to vote.
The panel gave the listeners an intimate view from the local perspective, as it featured four Saudi women involved in activism, one of whom was elected last Saturday for the Jedda Municipal Council, Rasha Hefzi. The other participants were Hatoon al-Fassi, a professor at King Saud University and women’s rights activist; Nailah Attar, founder and president of Esteshariya Consultancy Office and Jedda coordinator of the Baladi Campaign; and Aziza Youssef, a retired computer science professor at KSU and women’s rights activist. Kristin Smith Diwan, senior resident scholar at AGSIW, moderated the discussion.
The Baladi campaign was started by female activists after women were excluded from the 2011 national elections. Al-Fassi discussed the slow process over the past ten years that women activists and, later, the Baladi campaign, went through to achieve the vote. Though it is still early and the municipal councils have no authority on a national scale, she pointed out that the vote nevertheless is a historical moment, in which women are for the first time recognized as full citizens. There was no legal framework regulating women’s exclusion from civil society and politics, so much of their work was testing the boundaries of what was allowed and reformulating their strategies to conform to those regulations that were gradually postulated, without antagonizing anyone. Baladi also undertook letter-writing campaigns and used social media and emails to raise awareness about the issue. Raising the possibility of the women’s vote in public discourse assisted in familiarizing it with Saudi citizens. Al-Fassi characterized it as a process of ‘reminding’ officials and the public that they were there and they wanted the vote.
Hefzi agreed that awareness about civic engagement is very low in Saudi Arabia. She faced a lot of obstacles in her campaign, especially since women’s visibility is still extremely limited. She also had to create a voter base from nothing and assist in the difficult process of getting supporters to register.
Attar also commented on the gradual process. In 2012, she said, there was a general call to citizens, without specifically prohibiting women, to attend municipal council meetings and participate. So she and an active group of women started showing up at meetings. At first, they were greeted with some hostility, and at that first meeting were separated from the men by a curtain. Yet each meeting got a little better, a little more integrated, and women’s participation became more accepted.
Youssef also recognized the elections’ importance, but she stands out for her decision to boycott them. She will not participate until women are given all their basic rights and treated as citizens fully equal to men. Women still cannot drive and require male guardianship in all aspects of their public life. Indeed, both al-Fassi and Youssef have participated in campaigns to lift the ban on women driving. Youssef nevertheless thinks the elections demonstrate the state’s changing relationship with its citizens, where the latter can prod the government and ask for something, and the state may respond.
Women’s civil society participation has been in an ambiguous space between legality and illegality. Panel participants noted the absence of legislation governing civil society in general, though Attar noted that technically women have been voting for years in elections for educational committees, chamber of commerce, and similar institutions. The participants agreed that the old trope of ‘Saudi Arabia isn’t ready yet’ for progress in women’s and human rights simply is not true, a point driven home by these elections and the several female candidates who were met with success.
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Peace picks, December 14-18
- Reflections on Global History in the 20th Century: Towards a New Vision for the 21st Century | Monday, December 14th | 2:00-5:00 | Center for Strategic & International Studies | RSVP to attend | Join us for a dialogue among leading scholars of global history on the legacies of the 20th Century and the prospects for developing a more stable and prosperous world order in the remainder of the 21st Century. On this 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, participants in a CSIS research project will summarize key findings from a series of workshops and papers to be published in an edited volume in 2016. Speakers include: Yuichi Hosoya, Professor, Keio University; Satoshi Ikeuchi, Associate Professor, University of Tokyo; Sebastian Conrad, Professor of History, Freie Universitat Berlin; William Inboden, Associate Professor, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas-Austin; Jian Chen, Hu Shih Professor of History for U.S.-China Relations, Cornell University; Cemil Aydin, Associate Professor of History, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill; and Michael J. Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS, and Chair in Modern and Contemporary Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy, Georgetown University. The event will conclude with a conversation with Zbigniew Brzezinski, moderated by John Hamre, President and CEO, CSIS.
- The Wisdom of a Grand Nuclear Bargain with Pakistan | Monday, December 14th | 3:30-5:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND |Earlier this year, various news outlets reported that the Obama administration was exploring a nuclear deal with Pakistan. The deal would work to better incorporate Pakistan into the global nuclear order, exchanging legitimacy for its accepting nuclear constraints. Many analysts believe Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program poses a substantial threat to international and South Asian security. One of four nuclear weapons states outside the normative and legal apparatus of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Pakistan is assessed to have the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world.The South Asia Center will convene a panel of experts including Dr. Toby Dalton, Co-Director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dr. Sameer Lalwani, Deputy Director of Stimson’s South Asia Program, and Dr. Gaurav Kampani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, to discuss policy options to address international concerns over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The discussion will be moderated by Dr. Bharath Gopalaswamy, Director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.
On Twitter? Follow @ACSouthAsia and use #ACPakistan. - Tajikistan’s Human Rights Crisis: Responses to Dushanbe’s Political Crackdown | Tuesday, December 15th | 10:00-12:00 | Freedom House | RSVP to Nigina Valentini with ‘Tajikistan Roundtable’ in the subject line | Tajikistan’s human rights situation has deteriorated precipitously over the past two years amid an ongoing crackdown on the freedoms of expression and religion, censorship of the internet, and aggressive attempts to jail all political opposition. Following violent skirmishes in September 2014 between Tajik government forces and alleged Islamist militants that made worldwide headlines, President Rahmon stepped up his campaign against the political opposition, ordering the closure of Central Asia’s only legally registered Islamic political party—the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT)—arresting at least 78 of its members, and declaring the IRPT a terrorist organization. At the same time, political opponents abroad, including from the opposition “Group 24,” have been faced with extraditions, kidnappings, enforced disappearances and even assassinations in Russia, Turkey, and other neighboring states. In addition, the crisis is expanding rapidly, with a mass exodus of political activists from the country, and arrests of lawyers, journalists, and others from civil society.The speakers will provide new, fresh research from the field on Tajikistan’s current human rights crisis. They will also offer recommendations for policy responses by the US government, EU, and other international partners. The round table will be led by representatives of Tajikistan’s embattled civil society as well as experts on the human rights, political, and religious context. They include: Catherine Cosman, senior policy analyst, U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom; Muhitdin Kabiri, Chairman of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan; Nate Schenkkan, Project Director Nations in Transit, Freedom House; Steve Swerdlow, esq., Central Asia researcher with Human Rights Watch; and Sobir Valiev, deputy head of Group 24, and deputy head of the Congress of Constructive Forces of Tajikistan.
- Turkey-Russia Conflict: What’s Next? | Tuesday, December 15th | 11:30-12:30 | Center on Global Interests | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The escalating tensions between Turkey and Russia—brought to a head with the Turkish downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber jet in late November—have exposed the competing objectives that presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin are pursuing in Syria. Since that incident Russia has adopted sanctions and restricted tourism to Turkey, while Moscow and Ankara have lobbied mutual accusations of collusion with the Islamic State. This is set against a historic backdrop of centuries of competition between the two states on the Eurasian stage.
With their ongoing disagreement over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, along with Russia’s recent move to punish those who deny the disputed genocide of Armenians during WWI, the latest tensions now threaten to spill over into the Caucasus. What motivates each side in the dispute, and where can we expect it to go in 2016? How do domestic politics play into each president’s posturing? And what implications would a protracted Russo-Turkish split have on Eurasian, and Transatlantic, security? CGI is pleased to invite you to a discussion on this timely topic. Speakers include Michael Cecire, Foreign Policy Research Institute; Kemal Kirişci, Brookings Institution; and Maria Snegovaya, Columbia University; Anya Schmemann, Council on Foreign Relations, will moderate.
This event will take place at Johns Hopkins’ SAIS, Rome Building, and is on the record. Join the discussion with @CGI_DC - Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War in the Nordic/Baltic Region | Tuesday, December 15th | 12:00-1:30 | Stimson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Northern Europe is currently experiencing escalating political and military tensions that are rekindling fears of war between Russia and NATO. Any such conflict would inherently include a risk of nuclear weapons use. The Stimson Center, partnered with Project High Hopes, is examining the results of such nuclear exchanges and, more importantly, developing initiatives to avoid such catastrophes. This event includes a briefing of Stimson’s new report, “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War in the Nordic/Baltic Region.” Participants include Barry Blechman, Co-Founder, Stimson Center; Alex Bolfrass, Stimson Nonresident Fellow, Managing Across Boundaries; and Laicie Heeley, Stimson Fellow, Budgeting for Foreign Affairs and Defense.
- Can South Sudan End Two Years of War? | Tuesday, December 15th | 12:30-2:00 | US Institute of Peace (on Facebook) | REGISTER TO PARTICIPATE | The peace agreement signed by South Sudanese government and opposition forces on August 26 promised to end nearly two years of brutal war. But fighting has continued, contributing to a delay in establishing a transitional government.The world’s youngest nation plunged into violence on December 15, 2013 during a power struggle, and soon ethnic rivalries dominated the conflict. Poor infrastructure, a severe economic crisis, and more than two million displaced people present significant challenges to implementing the peace process.USIP has designed this chat, via Facebook, to include South Sudanese citizens inside the country and abroad. Please join USIP experts and representatives from the Office of the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan as they offer analysis and take questions. You can also post questions in advance on USIP’s Facebook page or on Twitter (#SouthSudanUSIP). Participants include Ambassador Donald Booth, @SUSSESSS, U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, U.S. Department of State; Susan Stigant, @SusanStigant, Director of Africa Programs, USIP; and John Tanza @VOASouthSudan, South Sudan in Focus, Voice of America, who will moderate.
- Implementing the Iran Nuclear Deal: What’s Next? | Thursday, December 17th | 8:00-4:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Atlantic Council and The Iran Project invite you to a symposium on implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the historic agreement reached with Iran by the United States and other world powers earlier this year.The conference will examine how the implementation of this accord will impact the future of Iran’s nuclear program; the ways in which the lifting of sanctions will affect Iran’s economy and the US approach to implementation; and how implementation will impact US and Iranian bilateral and regional relations. The Conference will seek to develop a bipartisan approach to verification and the incentive dimensions of the implementation phase. Adam Szubin, Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, US Department of Treasury, will give the morning keynote address, and The Hon. Stephen Mull, Lead Coordinator for Iran Nuclear Implementation, US Department of State, will speak at lunch. Please see here for a full list of panels and participants.
- The Revolutionary Path to Reform for Ukraine’s National Police | Tuesday, December 15th | 4:00-5:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Among the many reforms underway in Ukraine, the effort to modernize the country’s police force stands out as a particular success. Ukraine’s police has had a reputation for corruption since Ukraine’s independence. Following the Euromaidan revolution, the Ministry of Internal Affairs with support from the US Department of State, replaced Kyiv’s police force in July 2015. Odesa and Lviv followed suit in August 2015 with plans to carry out similar reforms across Ukraine’s major cities. Since the reform began, 4,800 new police officers have joined the police force, and public support for the new police force remains high. The success of the police reforms signals that rapid and radical reforms are possible to achieve in a short time.The newly-appointed Chief of the Ukrainian National Police, Khatia Dekanoidze, played a critical role in launching Ukraine’s police reform. Ms. Dekanoidze will join the Atlantic Council to discuss her strategy to restructure, reform, and train the police force, as well as her plans to capitalize on the success and transform Ukraine’s police forces. Prior to her appointment, she served as an adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov, playing a critical role in launching Ukraine’s patrol police reform. John Herbst, Director at Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council, will moderate the conversation.
- Women and Elections in Saudi Arabia | Thursday, September 17th | 12:00-1:30 | Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On Saturday, December 12, women voted for the first time in Saudi Arabia’s municipal elections, with over 900 women running as candidates. This marks an opportunity to assess the advancement of women’s empowerment in Saudi Arabia.AGSIW Senior Resident Scholar Kristin Diwan will lead a discussion with Dr. Hatoon Al Fassi, a scholar, long-time women’s rights activist, and leader of the Baladi campaign pushing for women’s enfranchisement in the Kingdom, Dr. Rasha Hefzi (via Skype), Municipal Council candidate from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and Dr. Aziza Youssef, Professor of Computer Science at King Saud University and leading proponent of the women’s driving campaign in Saudi Arabia. They will discuss the political life and overall status of women in Saudi Arabia: What has been the experience of women candidates in the election and what challenges have they faced in their campaigns? How have women voters responded to the elections? Despite the newness of the democratic process in Saudi Arabia and the council’s short history and limited powers, is there potential for women to use the council as a platform to elevate their concerns?
- The Kremlin’s Actions in Syria: Origins, Timing, and Prospects | Friday, December 18th | 8:30-1:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The conference brings together a distinguished group of experts and opinion leaders from the United States, Russia, and the Middle East to engage in a strategic dialogue on the consequences of Russian intervention in Syria. The first panel will explore the evolution of the Syrian crisis and implications of Russia’s new policy, followed by a second panel discussion on the impact of Russia’s policy and its prospects. Please see here for a full list of speakers.
- India’s Security Interests in Southeast Asia | Friday, December 18th | 10:00-11:00 | Center for Strategic & International Studies | RSVP to attend | Join CSIS for a discussion featuring Jonah Blank, senior political scientist, RAND Corporation; and Vikram Singh, vice president for national security and international policy, Center for American Progress.
Blank will discuss the key findings of his recent report on India’s emerging partnerships in Southeast Asia, “Look East, Cross Black Waters,” and Singh will give his perspectives on the opportunities and challenges that India’s growing strategic interest in Southeast Asia will bring for the United States.
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