Tag: Energy
Stevenson’s army, March 8
– Operational problems may prevent MiGs to Ukraine.
– Venezuela maybe can’t produce much more oil.
– How China is censoring war news
– Preparations for insurgency.
– Why Ukraine’s Internet is still up.
Mission creep: 27 national security expertspropose a “limited No-Fly Zone” to protect refugees. Signers include former Amb Taylor, Prof. Edelman, & former Amb Vershbow. [No, no, no; must avoid nuclear war.]
Eliot Cohen has his suggestions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 7
– NYT says US has approached Venezuela about buying oil.
– WaPO says US is planning in case there is a Ukrainian govt in exile.
– WSJ says Russians are recruiting Syrians for Ukraine war.
– K St Lobbyists for Russia out of luck.
– Politico has more on the interagency fight over trade policy
– A student told me of Treasury Oct 2021 report on sanctions policy.
– Amy Zegart analyzes effects of Ukraine info ops.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort
Russians are going to be a lot better off if their army fails in Ukraine than if it succeeds. Ukrainians as well. President Putin by contrast thinks he cannot survive failure. He is likely right. The invasion he thought would enable absorption of Ukraine and Belarus into an enlarged Russian Federation is a strategic failure. Most Ukrainians and Russians don’t want it. Putin may declare it, but reality will deny it.
The situation on the ground
That however makes little difference right now. The Russian army has overtaken, if not entirely taken, Kherson, near Ukraine’s southern coast. Kharkiv is under bombardment, as is Kyiv. The Russians are planning to surround both and demand surrender. Failing that, they will obliterate parts of these two largest cities in Ukraine. The picture is not good:
Ukrainian military and civilian resistance is still strong but faces overwhelming force. My guess is Putin will have to use it, making an eventual occupation even more difficult than it might otherwise have been.
The situation in the world
The international effort in support of Ukraine is going far better than the war. Sanctions have already begun to bite. The ruble is down. Interest rates are up. Russian hard currency reserves are mostly frozen. International companies are moving out. Russians may not yet have understood the consequences, but their standard of living is going to collapse.
Almost a million Ukrainians have fled, mostly to neighboring countries. The EU so far is welcoming them. The logistics of handling the crowds at the border are however daunting. Housing, feeding, and providing education and healthcare for the mainly women and children refugees will be more than daunting.
The situation in Russia
Russians have demonstrated against the war. Opposition leader Alexey Navalny has appealed on Twitter from his prison cell for more protests. How Russians react will be pivotal. If they blame Putin for their economic troubles and turn out by the millions in peaceful demonstrations, Ukraine might be saved sooner rather than later from Moscow’s designs. If the Russians blame the West and fail to demand withdrawal from Ukraine, Putin will be able to survive, at least for now.
Things will get harder
The West has proven remarkably unified and forceful in its reaction to Russian aggression. It won’t be easy to keep it that way. Europe is solid, because the threat is clear and immediate. The Americans so far are solid too, but higher gasoline prices and a slowed recovery could put Biden in a bind before the November election. The coordinated drawdown of petroleum reserves , in which 31 countries participated, was the right thing to do. But it did not have the immediate effect desired. Oil everywhere and natural gas prices in Europe are still spiking.
None of that changes the strategic picture. Putin has lost. The ambition to absorb Ukraine into a new Russian empire is unachievable. But the Ukrainians are also losing. Their country faces destruction, occupation, and repression. Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort.
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Stevenson’s army, February 22
– Fred Kaplan analyzes Putin’s revanchist address.
– WaPo says administration argues over whether this is an “invasion.”
– NYT has good tick tock on administration plans since last fall for major information operations to expose Russian plans.
– Germany has halted NordStream2.
– WaPo has background on the contested Donbas region.
– Here’s background on “Putin’s enabler.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 30
– DOD explained its new global posture review. WSJ notes planned base improvements in Guam and Australia. NYT notes indecision on Somalia. Former SAIS Prof Mara Karlin gave the briefing.
-WaPo describes administration debates over Ukraine.
– Axios reports German case against Nordstream2 sanctions
.– NYT reports revenge killings of Afghan security forces.
– NYT has new profile of NSA Jake Sullivan.
– Senate GOP blocks NDAA debate, demanding more amendments be considered.
– China threatens retaliation in case of Schumer amendment.
– WSJ’s Gerald Seib laments Congress putting party above its own institutions.
– CIA releases report on Trump’s relations with CIA.
– WaPo notes 4 GOP-dominated states are now paying people NOT to get vaccinated.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 25
– Happy Thanksgiving Day!
– FP says administration is lobbying hard against Nordstream 2 amendments to NDAA.
– McClatchy says Trump, frustrated with CIA, tried to get Pentagon to run covert ops against Iran.
– Josh Rogin sees foreign influences on US think tanks.
– VT prof says US think tanks promote interventionism.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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