Tag: Energy
Stevenson’s army, August 9
– Global warming is accelerating, IPCC says.
– Interagency meeting on “Havana Syndrome” finds more questions than answers.
– Senate glides toward infrastructure passage.
– Biden names critic to oversee NordStream2 deal.
Book note: I’ve just read the policy sections of Carter Malkasian’s book,The American War in Afghanistan. [He also has detailed chapters on US military operations.] My reaction:
Who lost Afghanistan? is the wrong question. It assumes agency, when few complex events are monocausal, and it seeks to assign blame, where responsibilities are widely shared. Better to ask, why did things turn out that way?
In his wide-ranging and detailed study of the conflict in Afghanistan during 2001-2021, The American War in Afghanistan [Oxford University Press],Carter Malkasian finds many moments of missed opportunities for peace and many questionable decisions that made things worse. A Pashto-speaking civilian working in Afghanistan who later served as a special assistant to CJCS General Dunford, Malkasian knows both American and Taliban officials as well as the territory and culture of Afghanistan.
The war brought benefits to many Afghans, but it also built resistance to outsiders that has long been a feature of Afghan history. “Afghanistan cleaved into an urban democracy and a rural Islamic order,” Malkasian writes. He mentions the impact of government incompetence and corruption and the role of Pakistan support for the Taliban, but ultimately concludes that the Taliban fighters had a greater willingness to kill and to be killed than their opponents. [He notes that one Taliban leader proudly sent his own son as a suicide bomber.]
“[T]he Taliban stood for what it meant to be Afghan.…Tainted by its alignment with the United States, the [Kabul] government had a much weaker claim to these values and thus a much harder time motivating supporters to go to the same lengths.”
Malkasian documents many consequential choices made by the Americans:
– refusing to allow any power sharing with the Taliban;
– failing to do much to build up the Afghan army and police during 2001-5 [in part of course, because of the U.S. turn to fight a war in Iraq];
– U.S. military tactics that killed many civilians and alienated others;
– overly optimistic U.S. generals that their ways would work;
– insufficient U.S. air strikes in 2014-15;
– ruptured relations with the Karzai government;
– mishandled peace talks in 2019-20 that rewarded the Taliban while leaving many crucial issues unsettled.
Maybe we need to revise the adage and conclude that defeat, not victory, has 100 fathers in this case.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | July 26 – August 1, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Past as Prologue: Revisiting Bernhard-Henri Levy’s 2002 Report on Afghanistan | July 26, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
In spring 2002, French philosopher and human rights activist Bernard-Henri Lévy traveled to an Afghanistan newly freed from Taliban control at the request of the French president to assess the conditions on the ground and determine how France could contribute to Afghanistan’s rebirth as a nation. In his subsequent report, Lévy pressed for France to take on a key role in areas ranging from strengthening the rule of law and women’s rights to helping to restore the country’s cultural heritage.
Much has changed over the past two decades and as the U.S. and its international partners prepare to withdraw militarily from Afghanistan, MEI is pleased to announce the launch of a new book, Past as Prologue: Revisiting Bernard-Henri Lévy’s 2002 Report on Afghanistan. The book includes Lévy’s original report (translated into English for the first time) along with a foreword by General (ret.) David Petraeus and an introductory essay by Dr. Marvin G. Weinbaum. Following remarks by General (ret). Petraeus and Lévy, a panel of experts will discuss Lévy’s 2002 report and what has happened in the years since. What was once hoped and envisioned for the country? What has actually happened on the ground over the past two decades? How are Lévy’s recommendations relevant in today’s context?
Speakers:
Gen. (ret.) David Petraeus
Former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan; former director, Central Intelligence Agency
Bernard-Henri Lévy
Philosopher, journalist, filmmaker, and public intellectual
H.E. Javid Ahmad,
Ambassador of Afghanistan to the United Arab Emirates; non-resident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Marvin Weinbaum,
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
- Transitioning to Non-Oil Economies in the Gulf: Successes, Failures, and the Path Forward | July 27, 2021 | 8:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
Economic diversification strategies to wean Gulf economies away from a dependence on hydrocarbon revenue have existed for decades. Ongoing state-led investments in strategic non-oil industries have produced varied results. Recent development initiatives involving culture, renewable energy, and technology-oriented industries appear promising; however, the return on investment is neither immediate nor guaranteed. Proceeds from the oil and gas sector continue to constitute the majority of public sector revenue in Gulf Arab states.
Are overlapping initiatives to develop non-oil industries in the region opportunities for cooperation or competition? With a steady rebound in oil prices since the oil price shocks of 2020, will oil- and gas-producing countries in the Gulf relax economic diversification efforts? Do protests in Oman signal a wider dissatisfaction with the fiscal adjustments implemented since 2020? What does this reveal about the rentier state theory and the nature of economic reform and development in the Gulf?
Speakers:
Talik Doshi
Visiting Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore
Kate Dourian
Non-resident Fellow, AGSIW; Contributing Editor, Middle East Economic Survey; Fellow, Energy Institute
Robert Mogielnicki
Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW
Clemens Chay
Research Fellow, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore
- Report Launch: Mapping the Human Rights Risks of Facial Recognition Technology | July 27, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | Register Here
Thanks to a decade of rapid progress in the field of computer vision, facial recognition technology (FRT) has become a commercial product available to almost any government or business in the world. Organizations ranging from law enforcement agencies to independent retail outlets are beginning to integrate FRT into their operations. Proponents hope that facial recognition may support public safety initiatives and improve access to services, but the risk of errors and abuse mean that FRT deployments carry substantial risks to a variety of fundamental rights and freedoms. This is particularly true in the case of nations with weak rule of law.
Speakers:
Marti Flacks
Director and Senior Fellow, Human Rights Initiative
Amy K. Lehr
Senior Associate (non-resident), Human Rights Initiative
- Prospects for Peace and Security in Zimbabwe | July 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institution | Register Here
After 37 years of dictatorship, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe finally resigned on November 21, 2017. For many, his departure and Emmerson Mnangagwa’s rise signaled hope for the politically and economically devastated and once pariah state of Zimbabwe. Today, the increasing political violence and polarization, as well as economic emaciation serve to undermine the ruling administration and highlight the enduring legacies of Mugabe’s reign, even after his death on September 6, 2019.
On July 28, the Africa Security Initiative will host a discussion on U.S. policy toward Zimbabwe and future political course of action. Following the discussion, the panel will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
George F. Ward
Adjunct Senior Research Analyst, Institute for Defense Analyses
Michelle Gavin
Senior Fellow for Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Dew Mavhinga
Director, Southern Africa, Human Rights Watch
Piers Pigou
Senior Consultant, Southern Africa, International Crisis Group
Michael E. O’Hanlon (moderator)
Director of Research, Foreign Policy; Co-Director, Center for Security, Strategy and Technology, Africa Security Initiative; Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
- The Convention on Refugees at 70: A Conversation with Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield | July 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
On July 28th, the world will mark the 70th anniversary of the adoption of the United Nations’ 1951 Refugee Convention, a historic multilateral agreement that clarified the rights of refugees under international law and the obligation of host countries to provide for their protection. The principles enshrined in the Refugee Convention set precedents for the rights, repatriation, and resettlement of refugees that still resonate to this day.
However, these precedents are increasingly under strain amid a changing global context. Driven by violent conflict and insecurity, the world is facing a new displacement crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated displacement trends, pushing healthcare infrastructure to the brink and creating dire economic conditions as countries struggle to contain the virus. Meanwhile, climate change uprooted more than 30 million people—the highest figure in a decade.
Speakers:
Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
Lise Grande
President am CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
- How Modern CIOs Innovate for Impact | July 28, 2021 | 12:00 PM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Modern Chief Information Officers (CIOs) today drive transformation, connecting the dots between customers, and the tools and infrastructure needed to support them. Not only do they have legacy systems that needed stabilizing, but also, customer demands are accelerating, along with the pace of and changes in technology. In order to cope, modern CIOS will need to address concerns with a matrix of technology, people, and customer needs in mind.
Join us for a GeoTech Hour, co-hosted by David Bray and Jamie Holcombe discussing how to drive cultural change for enterprises and discuss what it is like to steer, lead, and shape IT and organizations in the federal realm.
Speakers:
Sally Grant
Vice President, Lucd AI
Nagesh Rao
Chief Information Officer, Bureau of Industry and Security, United States Department of Commerce
David Bray, PhD
Director, GeoTech Center, Atlantic Council
Jamie Holocombe
Chief Information Officer, United States Patent and Trademark Office
- Nuclear Security Policy in an Era of Strategic Competition | July 28, 2021 | 1:30 PM EST | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has relied on diplomacy and the maintenance of its nuclear enterprise as a means of strategic deterrence. However, 30 years later, Russia and China are pursuing the maintenance and modernization of their nuclear weapons and systems — and the current U.S. construct is ill-suited to this new, complex geopolitical environment.
The Congressional Nuclear Security Working Group, co-chaired by Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE) and Rep. Bill Foster (D-IL), is a bipartisan caucus dedicated to facilitating awareness and engagement on the urgent threats posed by the prospect of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. The caucus goals include strengthening nuclear safeguards, securing fissile material and preventing the misuse and spread of sensitive nuclear materials and technologies.
Speakers:
Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE)
U.S. Representative from Nebraska
Rep. Bill Foster (D-IL)
U.S. Representative from Illinois
Lise Grande, moderator
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Jordan’s Digital Future: A Conversation with Jordanian Minister of Digital Economy and Entrepreneurship | July 29, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Join the Middle East Program for a conversation with His Excellency Ahmad Hanandeh, Minister of Digital Economy and Entrepreneurship in Jordan, who will describe Jordan’s journey to becoming a regional tech leader, and strategy to using digital transformation as a means of recovering form the coronavirus pandemic.
Speakers:
Ahmad Hanandeh
Minister of Digital Economy and Entrepreneurship, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
- Unlocking the Potential of U.S. Offshore Wind | July 29, 2021 | 12:45 PM EST | The Bipartisan Policy Center | Register Here
Achieving domestic and international climate goals will require a dramatic expansion of energy production from zero-carbon resources. Offshore wind has an important role to play in that expansion and a robust domestic industry will create jobs, advance manufacturing and tap a growing global market. Realizing this potential, however, will not be easy for a host of reasons, some of which are common to the early large-scale deployment of most new energy technologies and some of which have to do with the unique characteristics and demands of offshore wind.
Speakers:
David J. Hayes
Special Assistant to the President for Climate Policy
Bobby Jindal
Former Governor of Louisiana
Bill White
Vice President, Offshore Wind, Avangrid
Lesley Jantarasami (moderator)
Managing Director, BPC Energy Program
- Is the U.S. Really Leading the World in Hypersonic Munitions? | July 29, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
Hypersonic weapons travel more than five times the speed of sound, enabling them to close on targets in ways that could significantly impact the next major armed conflict. Realizing their potential, Russia and China have well-developed programs and have likely fielded operational hypersonic weapons. In contrast, the U.S. has yet to complete testing on its first such munition.
Join Dr. Mark Lewis, one of America’s leading experts in this field, as he confronts the offensive potential, defensive challenges, and myths surrounding hypersonic munitions.
Speakers:
Dr. Mark Lewis
Executive Director, Emerging Technologies Institute, NDIA
John Venable
Senior Research Fellow for Defense Policy
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Peace Picks | July 12-16, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Views from the Hill: A Conversation with Rep. Tom Malinowski | July 12, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute is pleased to host Congressman Tom Malinowski in a conversation moderated by MEI Senior Vice President Gerald Feierstein. Congressman Malinowski will begin with remarks on the Biden administration’s approach to key Middle East challenges, including its efforts to elevate human rights into long-standing partnerships with Egypt and Saudi Arabia, how to jumpstart negotiations with Iran, and how to build on the recent normalizations with Israel.
How is Congress thinking about the new administration’s handoff with legacies of the Trump administration including blank checks on human rights, no-questions-asked weapons sales, and the Abraham Accords? How do the Biden administration’s commitments to prioritizing human rights stand up in the Middle East? What’s behind the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic engagements?
Speakers:
Rep. Tom Malinowski
US Congressman, 7th District of New Jersey
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feirstein (moderator)
Senior Vice President, MEI
- The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter | July 12, 2021 | 4:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Pulitzer-winning historian Bird (The Good Spy) discerns much positive achievement in Carter’s one-term presidency, including airline deregulation that made flying cheap; prescient energy policies that boosted domestic energy supplies and solar power; human rights initiatives…and the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement… Bird skillfully paints Carter as a mix of genuine idealism and “clear-eyed ruthlessness” behind a folksy facade, and shrewdly analyzes the forces of stagflation, deindustrialization, and U.S. imperial decline—capped by the Iran hostage crisis—that hobbled him. The result is a lucid, penetrating portrait that should spur reconsideration of Carter’s much-maligned presidency.
Speakers:
Kai Bird
Former Fellow; Director of the Leon Levy Center for Biography at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator)
Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen
Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University, Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association
- A Conversation with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | July 13, 2021 | 9:30 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
Director-General Okonjo-Iweala has been chosen to lead the WTO at one of the most challenging moments in the history of the institution. After navigating tariff disputes and trade wars in 2018 and 2019, the WTO is now at the center of helping restart the engine of global trade. As vaccination efforts continue, countries are looking to see how the WTO will address critical issues including vaccine nationalism and supply chain bottlenecks. For a historic moment, the member nations of the WTO made a historic selection. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala is the first woman and first African to lead the organization. Director-General Okonjo-Iweala will join the Council for a candid conversation on the WTO’s priorities and her vision for 2021 and beyond. What role should intellectual property play in promoting equitable vaccine distribution? How can citizens left behind by the forces of global trade over the past several decades be supported? These are just some of the many challenges facing the WTO.
Speakers:
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Director-General World Trade Organization
Frederick Kempe (moderator)
President and CEO, The Atlantic Council
- Book Launch: A Political Economy of Free Zones in Gulf Arab States | July 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
Free zones are common features of Gulf Arab states and their economies, but these trade and investment hubs are often understood only in a very narrow sense. Free zones sit at the nexus of some of the region’s most contentious political economy issues: foreign ownership, expatriate labor, and taxes and other commercial fees. Established entities like the Jebel Ali Free Zones have significantly improved Dubai’s commercial reputation, while nascent and aspirational megaprojects – from Saudi Arabia’s Neom to Kuwait’s Silk City – incorporate free zone characteristics. The UAE’s sprawling free zone system continues to expand, and newer leaders, such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Omani Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, appear committed to advance free zone-led development projects.
How have free zones around the Gulf contributed to economic diversification, the strengthening of the private sector, and employment creation? Are foreign ownership reforms, workforce nationalization initiatives, and new taxes and fees threatening to diminish incentives that free zones offer prospective investors? What role do free zones play in guarding against illicit financial flows? And how do free zones feature in diplomatic relations and the opening of new markets, from Israel to China?
Speakers:
Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman
President, AGSIW
Robert Mogielnicki
Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW
Ziad Daoud
Chief Middle East Economist, Bloomberg Economics
Sanam Vakil
Deputy Director and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program, Chatham House
- Building Faster to Achieve Net-Zero | July 13, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Bipartisan Policy Center | Register Here
Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires building clean infrastructure at a significantly faster pace than we are currently able to site, permit, and approve infrastructure projects. Absent dramatic improvement, important projects and new technologies will sit on the sidelines and achieving net-zero by 2050 will be impossible. The Bipartisan Policy Center’s Smarter, Cleaner, Faster Infrastructure Task Force released 23 federal policy recommendations to accelerate the deployment of clean infrastructure. Join us for a virtual discussion in this second of a joint event series with Aspen Institute’s Energy & Environment Program on building faster to decarbonize our economy.
Speakers:
Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL)
United States House of Representatives
Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND)
United States House of Representatives
Bobby Jindal
Former Governor of Louisiana
- Saudi Arabia: Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges | July 14, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its July 2021 Article IV Consultation. This webinar will address the report in the context of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Saudi economy and assess the government’s policy response. With lasting effects from the pandemic and lower oil prices through early 2021, fiscal pressure increased and heightened the pace of some economic reform. As the non-oil economy begins to recover, the Saudi government is faced with immediate policy challenges and the longer-term challenge of diversification away from oil reliance.
hat fiscal policy challenges has the volatility in the oil market created? How well are reforms meeting the need to generate more jobs for Saudi nationals in the private sector? How has the trajectory of foreign direct investment flows impacted the transformation of the Saudi economy?
Speakers:
Faris Al-Sulayman
Research fellow, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies; PhD Candidate, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tim Callen
Assistant director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy, MEI
- Tokyo and the Long Game for the Olympics | July 14, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Having postponed the Games by a year as a result of the global pandemic, Tokyo will be hosting the Summer Olympics later this month. Although the worst of the spread of COVID may appear to be over in some parts of the world, concerns about the risks of hosting the Games continue to persist. It has also led to discussions worldwide about the future of the Olympic Games and prospects for hosting massive sporting events. Join us for a discussion on how the Olympics have shaped the political dynamics within Japan, and the challenges as well as opportunities for Japan becoming the first country to host the Games during a pandemic.
Speakers:
Jules Boykoff
Professor and Politics and Government Chair, Pacific University
Heather Dichter
Associate Professor, De Montfort University School of Humanities
Yuhei Inoue
Reader, Sports Management, Manchester Metropolitan University Business School
Shihoko Goto (moderator)
Deputy Director for Geoeconomics and Senior Associate for Northeast Asia, Asia Program, The Wilson Center
- Cybersecurity on the Final Frontier: Protecting Our Critical Space Assets from Cyber Threats | July 14, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Our overwhelming reliance on space technology puts us in a precarious position. Like any other increasingly digitized critical infrastructure, satellites and other space-based assets are vulnerable to cyberattacks. These concerns are no longer merely hypothetical and, if not mitigated, could interfere with the space-enabled technology we take for granted in our day-to-day lives as well as national security and global economic development broadly.
This event will offer expert insights into understanding and navigating the increasingly contested cyber threat landscape in space, including threat vectors unique to a space cyber attack, and high-level drivers necessary for hardening our critical space systems.
Speakers:
Meg King
Director of the Science and Technology Innovation Program
Jamie M. Morin
Executive Director of the Center for Space Policy and Strategy, the Aerospace Corporation
Theresa Hitchens (moderator)
Space and Air Force Reporter, Breaking Defense
Brandon Bailey (panelist)
Cybersecurity Senior Project Leader, Cyber Assessments and Research Department, the Aerospace Corporation
Prashant Doshi (panelist)
Associate Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
Erin Miller
Executive Director, Space ISAC
Ryan Speelman
Principal Director, Cyber Security Subdivision, the Aerospace Corporation
- The Renewal of Transatlantic Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition | July 15, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | The Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the world enters a new era of strategic competition, the transatlantic community will need to work closely to drive a new global agenda and advance a rules-based international order. China has grown more confident, and Russia more aggressive. Authoritarianism is resurgent, while democracies face critical challenges both at home and abroad. The purpose of this event is to discuss ways that the United States, Europe, and Canada can advance shared priorities and revitalize the most powerful democratic community in modern history.
Speakers:
Amb. Paula Dobriansky
Vice Chair, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Erik Brattberg
Director of the Europe Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ben Haddad
Director of the Europe Center, Atlantic Council
Luiza ch. Savage
Executive Director of Editorial Initiatives at Politico and Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute
Sophia Gaston
Director, British Foreign Policy Group
Ash Jain
Senior Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Jonathan Berkshire Miller
Director & Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, Macdonald Laurier Institute
Bruce Jones
Director of the Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Ben Roswell
President and Research Director, Canadian International Council
Maureen Boyd
Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and Senior Fellow, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University
- Can a New U.N. Produce Peace in Yemen? | July 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
When Martin Griffiths, the outgoing United Nations special envoy to Yemen, gave his final briefing to the U.N. Security Council on June 15, he painted a “bleak picture” of stalled efforts to broker a cease-fire and initiate talks over ending the country’s 6-year civil war. Since former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appointed the U.N.’s first special representative to Yemen in 2011, the country has undergone a precipitous transformation, with successive envoys overseeing an unsuccessful political transition and the eruption of a civil war, with little progress toward peace.
With diplomatic circles now humming with speculation about who will replace Griffiths, what issues should be top of the new envoy’s agenda? How has the situation in Yemen changed since the appointment of the first U.N. envoy, and have mediation efforts kept pace with the evolution of the conflict? What lessons can be gleaned from the efforts of previous special envoys? And what recommendations can be made for the incoming envoy?
Speakers:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Non-Resident Fellow, Middle East Institute
Peter Salisbury
Senior Analyst, Yemen, Crisis Group
Gregory D. Johnsen
Former Member, U.N. Panel of Experts on Yemen
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Oil and gas have an important role to play in getting to net zero
The Global Energy Center at the Atlantic Council hosted The Role of Gas and Oil in Net-Zero on June 28 to discuss the role of hydrocarbons and international energy companies in reaching the goal of net-zero by 2050. In his opening remarks, the founding chairman, Richard Morningstar, emphasized the need for a public-private partnership to reach the goal in a timely manner. The speakers of the event were:
Ambassador Richard Morningstar
Founding Chairman, Global Energy Center Atlantic Council
Al Cook
Executive Vice President, Exploration and Production International Equinor
Juliana Garaizar
Vice President of Innovation, Greentown Labs
Greg Sharenow
Portfoli Manager, Real Assets, PIMCO
Helima Croft (moderator)
Managing and Global Head of Commodity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets; Board of Directors member, Global Energy Center Atlantic Council
In his keynote speech, Cook emphasized net-zero as the future of the energy industry. The means of producing energy must become more conscious of the resulting carbon emissions. 80% of the world’s energy is supplied by fossil fuels. This 80% must fall, despite the growing demand for coal – a demand expected to continue to rise through the upcoming decades.
Cook referenced the latest report by the International Energy Agency that suggested no new oil and gas projects globally after 2021. He believes this is essential, though it does not align with current government policies. Cook believes there must be a decrease by 50% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and energy companies must provide the 50% of people who lack access to electricity with renewable and affordable solutions. To accomplish these goals, Cook proposed three objectives for the energy industry:
- The amount of carbon dioxide produced with each barrel of oil must be decreased. On average, today the production of 1 barrel of oil produces 17-18 kg of carbon dioxide. Equinor has harnessed developing technology to decrease this to 8 kg of carbon dioxide per barrel. Equinor employs a combination of carbon capture and storage (with burial underground) and electrification of offshore operations to drastically decrease emissions.
- Energy production companies should reinvest revenues and capital in renewable energy. Cook suggested investment in offshore windfarms. Equinor is currently constructing the world’s largest offshore wind farm – Dogger Bank – off the UK coastline and partnering to build a windfarm off the shores of New York called Empire Wind, which will produce 15% of the renewable energy target set by the Biden Administration.
- At its current rate, renewable energy cannot immediately solve the world’s need for energy. Due to its combination of low intensity and intermittency, Cook emphasized the need to continue using fossil fuels. We must acknowledge the future demand for oil and gas and take this into account in future.
Reactions to the IEA Report: what do you take from the report? What is doable and what is necessary?
Cook emphasized the need for its severity. He claimed that for too long, too many reports have underestimated the importance of renewable energy. Fatty Burrel, the author of the IEA report, argues the world cannot wait until 2050 to reach these targets, the energy industry and its supporting governments must enact change today.
Garaizar and Sharenow echoed Cook’s response, stating this report is a wake-up call for investors as well as policy makers. While Sharenow argued the proposal is an aspiration, it will provide clarity and foster greater steps in building confidence for investors in renewable energy.
What are the policy changes that need to happen to enact change?
Sharenow argued for implementation of stricter carbon prices, taxes, and complementary policies to address carbon emissions. Carbon policies can be a positive tool for companies to redistribute their investments and provide incentive for future movement towards renewable energy. Sharenow also emphasized the need for collective action, as more opportunities can be offered to the world, especially those in areas without consistent access to electricity, if this pursuit is undertaken as a communal effort.
Garizar agreed with Sharenow and asserted the need for developing innovative business models to make up for the lack of political structure in some countries. Instead of promoting change within political systems, it is the responsibility of international energy companies to create and promote new models that accommodate differing political structures in promoting consistent and affordable access to renewable energy.
To conclude, Cook, reaffirmed his previous arguments, acknowledging the need for consistency and long-term policies to streamline the promotion of decreased carbon regulations around the world.
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Peace Picks | June 07-11, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Ultimate Authority: The Struggle for Islamic Institutions in the Arab World | June 08, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Carnegie’s Middle East Program convenes this seminar to mark the launch of its new edited volume which examines the interplay between religious establishments and governance in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco. Arab rulers are increasingly asserting control over Islamic institutions with administrative and coercive tools. These top-down policies are framed by authoritarian regimes as “reforms,” but are often calculated attempts to eliminate potential sources of dissent in ministries, seminaries, mosques, and other religious entities. At the other end of the spectrum, Islamic institutions in conflict-wracked Arab states have become prizes for competing factions to bolster their authority and popular support. Understanding these dynamics has important implications for countering violent extremism and resolving conflict, as well as appreciating evolving state-society relations across the Arab world.
Speakers:
Nathan J. Brown
Professor of political science and international affairs, George Washington University
Annelle Sheline
Research fellow in the Middle East program, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen
Journalist; non resident fellow, Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies
Laila Alrefaai
Writer and researcher specializing in religious affairs
Frederic Wehrey (moderator)
Senior fellow in the Middle East Program, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
2. International Relations and the Middle East: US, China, and Regional Powers | June 08, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
This event marks the launch of the sixth wave of the Arab Barometer. It will bring together experts from the US and Middle East alongside Michael Robbins, Director of Arab Barometer, to delve into the results as they pertain to regional rivalries, great power competition, and prospects for regional cooperation and conflict deescalation. How has a year of global lockdown and ongoing conflict shaped regional attitudes about conflict deescalation and the need for conflict resolution channels? How do Arabs see external powers such as China, Russia, and the US as playing a future role in their countries? Have new opportunities or challenges arisen in the last year?
Speakers:
May Darwich
Lecturer of International Relations of the Middle East, University of Birmingham
Michael Robbins
Director, Arab Barometer
Randa Slim
Senior fellow and director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues program, MEI
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein (moderator)
Senior vice president, MEI
3. Untapped Potential: Women, Leadership, and Water Diplomacy in the Middle East | June 09, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program and Middle East Program, with co-sponsor EcoPeace Middle East, organize this discussion on the inclusion of women in water leadership and diplomacy in the Middle East. A panel of experts will speak on the enhancement of regional diplomacy and a movement for inclusive resource decision-making. Women play a critical role in water resource management and decision-making at the community level. Yet, they are often absent from high-level water-related negotiations and agreements. By excluding women from the decision-making processes, the sustainability and effectiveness of these agreements—which are essential to broader peace and security—is undermined. What steps can country leaders and stakeholders take to ensure that women’s leadership is realized in water diplomacy?
Speakers:
Maysoon Al-Zoubi
International water and water diplomacy expert, Arab Dar Engineering Company
Natasha Carmi
Lead water specialist, Geneva Water Hub
Dalit Wolf Golan
Deputy Israel director and regional development director, EcoPeace Middle East
Martina Klimes
Advisor on water and peace, Stockholm International Water Institute
Merissa Khurma (introduction)
Program director of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Lauren Herzer Risi (moderator)
Project director of the environmental change and security program, Wilson Center
4. Iran’s presidential election: Domestic and international implications | June 09, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Chatham House | Register Here
The next presidential election in Iran set for 18 June 2021 takes place in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and worsening economic conditions due to fiscal mismanagement and sanctions imposed by the United States. It will also be held during ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran over the future the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also known as the Iran nuclear agreement. Against this backdrop voter turnout is expected to be a significant factor impacting the outcome of this election.
In this Chatham House seminar, experts discuss Iran’s political map ahead of the 18 June presidential election and the ballot’s regional and international implications.
Speakers:
Nazila Fathi
Independent journalist; Non-resident scholar, Middle East Institute
Kenneth Katzman
Senior analyst in Iran and Persian Gulf affairs, Congressional Research Service
Vali Nasr
Majid Kadduri Professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Non-resident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Raz Zimmt
Research fellow, Institute for National Security Studies
Sanam Vakil (moderator)
Deputy director and senior research fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
5. Sectarian Identities and the Rise of Nationalism in the Middle East | June 09, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
In recent years, there has been increasing promotion of nationalist identities over sectarian schisms. In Lebanon and Iraq, anger at the prominence of sectarian identities prompted the emergence of protest movements cutting across sectarian lines, united by chants such as “all of them means all of them.” In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought to promote a Saudi nationalism inclusive of previously marginalized Shia communities. In this joint AGSIW-SEPAD webinar, panelists will discuss these issues and more.
Speakers:
Geneive Abdo
Visiting fellow, AGSIW
Simon Mabon
Chair in international politics, Lancaster University; Director, Richardson Institute; Director of the sectarianism, proxies and de-sectarianisation project, AGSIW
Maha Yahya
Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Kristin Smith Diwan
Senior resident scholar, AGSI
6. Iran’s Arab Strategy and American Policy Options | June 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Since 1979, the foreign policy focus of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been disproportionately on the Arab World. It is also in the Arab World – in countries like Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen – where the United States and Iran have over the years competed for influence and often engaged in a zero-sum game contest for regional power. Meanwhile, the costs of Iran’s interventions in the Arab World are significant both in direct and indirect terms. Can Iran stay the course? What is the impact of Iran’s Arab policy on Arab countries? Finally, what policy challenges does Tehran’s commitment to maintaining a strong hand in the Arab World represent to Washington? MEI organizes this panel to discuss these issues.
Speakers:
Hanin Ghaddar
Friedmann fellow in the Geduld Program on Arab Politics, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Nader Uskowi
President, Sagewood Consulting; non-resident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Mohsen Sazegara
Iranian journalist and political activist
Alex Vatanka (moderator)
Director of the Iran Program, MEI
7. Migration in Perpetuity: Yemeni Voices from the Diaspora | June 10, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
the Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center hosts this panel exploring migration and relocation through the photography and art practice of three of the most exciting young Yemeni contemporary women artists practicing today; Shaima Al-Tamimi, Thana Faroq, and Yasmine Nasser Diaz, who are joined by the New York City-based Yemeni chef/storyteller Akram Said.
The exposition Migration in Perpetuity: Yemeni Voices from the Diaspora provides a rare exploration of a war-torn country, through the beautiful work of four vibrant Yemeni contemporary artists, as they navigate their complex relationship to the homeland and the tensions of growing up in diaspora.
Speakers:
Shaima Al-Tamimi
Artist
Thana Faroq
Artist
Yasmine Nasser Diaz
Artist
Akram Said
Artist
Lila Nazemian (moderator)
Independent curator; Special Projects Curator, ArteEas
8. Israeli Politics in the Post-Netanyahu Era | June 10, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
After four elections in two years, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, has agreed to form a broad-based, national unity government with Naftali Bennett’s far-right Yamina party, likely putting an end to the political stalemate of the last two years as well as the 12-year reign of Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history. Under the terms of the agreement, the ultra-nationalist Bennet will serve as premier for the first two years—assuming the coalition holds up that long—before handing the premiership to Lapid. The new “change government” includes an unprecedentedly diverse set of parties ranging from the pro-two state solution Meretz Party on the left to the pro-annexation Yamina on the far right, and will for the first time include an Arab party, Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List, in the ruling coalition.
How durable will the new coalition government be? What does a Naftali Bennett premiership mean for the future of a two-state solution and the Israeli occupation? How will Netanyahu deal with his new role as Israel’s opposition leader? MEI hosts this panel discussion to address these issues.
Speakers:
Thair Abu Rass
Ph.D. candidate at the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland
Dr. Shira Efron
Senior research fellow, Institute for National Security Studies; Special advisor on Israel, RAND Corporation; Adjunct scholar at the Modern War Institute, West Point
Paul Scham
Director of the Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies, University of Maryland; Professor of Israel Studies, University of Maryland; Non-resident fellow, MEI
Khaled Elgindy (moderator)
Senior fellow and director of the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
9. Report Launch: Shifting Gears: Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition | June 11, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council Global Energy Center marks the launch of its new report Shifting Gears: Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition. Driven largely by technological advancements and policies aimed at decarbonization, the prospect that oil demand will peak in the not-too-distant future has become a topic of debate in energy circles over the past several years. So-called “peak demand” would have significant geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences for oil-producing and importing nations alike. Shifting Gears examines major geopolitical questions related to the prospect of a peak in oil demand that include the likely redistribution of oil market share between major producers; the potential for failed states or material internal political instability in major oil-producing countries; and the geopolitical impact of peak demand on major oil-consuming nations.
Speakers:
Randolph Bell (opening remarks)
Director of the Global Energy Center and Richard Morningstar Chair for Global Energy Security, Atlantic Council
Robert Johnston (keynote and moderator)
Managing director of Energy, Climate, and Resource, Eurasia Group; Nonresident senior fellow at the Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
Håvard Halland
Senior economist, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Amy Myers Jaffe
Research professor and managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at the Fletcher School, Tufts University
10. Iran in an Emerging New World Order: A Book Talk with Ali Fathollah-Nejad | June 11, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
MEI hosts author Ali Fathollah-Nejad to discuss his new book, with Professor Anoush Ehteshami joining him on the panel as a discussant. Accounting for both domestic factional politics and the international balance of power, Ali Fatollah-Nejad’s book examines the drivers behind Iranian foreign policy since 9/11. He also examines Iran’s relations with non-Western great powers and offers a critique of the “Rouhani doctrine” and its economic and foreign-policy visions. What can we detect about Iranian geopolitical imaginations and what do we know about the competing visions of various foreign policy schools of thought in Iran? Why was Rouhani’s so-called neoliberal-inspired developmental model doomed to fail? Will the “Look to the East” political faction deepen Tehran’s pursuit of its interests in regards to ties to China in the post-Rouhani period? What does this all mean for American policy calculations vis-vis-Iran in the coming years?
Speakers:
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Political scientist, analyst, author; non-resident senior research fellow, Afro-Middle East Centre (AMEC)
Professor Anoush Ehteshami
Director for the Institute of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, Durham University
Alex Vatanka (moderator)
Director of the Iran Program, MEI
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Stevenson’s army, May 11
– Fred Kaplan explains the pipeine context.
– NYT reports on DarkSide.
– WSJ notes that TSA [!] not CISA is responsible for pipeline cybersecurity.
–Shots fired at Iranian boats.
– Open Secrets has new foreign lobbying data. Look at China’s.
– Politico says WH now requires approval of quotes in background briefings.
– Provocative article: WOTR writer says DOD is doing AI all wrong, shouldn’t be top-down.
– Former CIA official says IC shouldn’t do propaganda.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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