Tag: Ethiopia
A stronger American still fumbles
President Biden made a farewell appearance at the State Department yesterday. As a former Foreign Service officer, I’m of course delighted that he did this. It is especially important and timely because the Department now faces Donald Trump’s threat of loyalty tests and mass firings.
Biden’s understandably directed his remarks at justifying what his Administration has done on foreign policy. So how did he really do?
The bar was low
Certainly Biden can justifiably claim to have strengthened America’s alliances. The bar was low. Both in Europe and Asia the first Trump Administration had raised doubts. Allies could not depend on Washington’s commitment to fulfill its mutual defense obligations. Biden’s claim that compared to four years ago America is stronger because of renewed and expanded alliances is true. He is also correct in claiming he has not gone to war to make it happen.
The extraordinary strength of the American economy is an important dimension of this strength. Voters decided the election in part on the issue of inflation. But the Fed has largely tamed that and growth has been strong throughout. Manufacturing is booming, including vital semi-conductor production. Investment in non-carbon energy sources has soared. The defense industrial based is expanding.
Biden is also correct in asserting that America’s antagonists are worse off. Russia has failed to take Ukraine because of the US effort to gather support for Kyiv. Iran and its allies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria are weaker. Only the Houthis in Yemen are arguably stronger than four years ago.
China is facing serious domestic economic and demographic challenges. But I don’t know why Biden claims it will never surpass the US. On a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, it already has, though obviously per capita GDP in China remains much lower.
Some claims gloss over big problems
Biden is rightly proud that there is no longer war in Afghanistan, but he glosses over the chaotic withdrawal. He also doesn’t mention the failure of the Taliban to keep its commitments.
He vaunts progress on climate change, but without acknowledging that the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees centigrade will not be met.
Biden talks about infrastructure in Africa. But not about its turn away from democracy, civil wars in Sudan and Ethiopia, and the unresolved conflict in Libya.
He urges that Iran never be allowed to “fire” a nuclear weapon. That is a significant retreat from the position that Iran should never be allowed to have one.
Biden mentions the impending Hamas/Israel ceasefire. But he says nothing about Israel’s criminal conduct of the war in Gaza. Nor does he blame Israel’s right-wing government for the long delay in reaching a deal.
Biden’s legacy
At the end, Biden seeks to bequeath three priorities to Trump: artificial intelligence, climate change, and democracy. He no doubt knows that Trump isn’t going to take the advice on climate or democracy. He might on artificial intelligence, as his Silicon Valley tycoons will want him to.
Sad to say, Biden’s legacy will lie in other areas. Fearful of nuclear conflict with Russia, he failed to give Ukraine all the support it needs to defeat Russia. He was reluctant to rein in Israel for more than a year of the Gaza war. He failed to stop or reverse the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. America is stronger than it was four years ago, but it has not always used that strength to good advantage.
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Stevenson’s army, January 3
– US intelligence believes Hamas used al-Shifa hospital for command and hostages
– NYT reports pushback to State limits on Chinese Americans
– NYT explains concerns over Ethiopia-Somaliland deal
– CNN says US will keep base in Qatar for ten more years
– Chips War author says enforcement is lax
-FP has good list of conflicts to watch in 2024
– History lesson: compare now to 103 years ago [I also liked the Hochschild book]
– Use debaters for national security jobs [I like this idea, too]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– New Yorker says the Mongols had a great civilization
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Stevenson’s army, June 9
– How many wars are we in today? WH releases latest war powers report.
– Watson Institute at Brown criticizes defense spending.
– There’s a fight over sending troops to Haiti. US wants a UN force; author argues against it.
– Corruption leads US to cut aid to Ethiopia.
– Another Discord leak from WaPo: Saudi prince threatened severe economic pain on US
– Effort to label Wagner a terrorist group fails.
– FT has details of Iranian drones to Russia.
– NYT says satellites saw dam explosion.
– Florida man goes to jail for keeping classified documents. No, a different Florida man.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 3
– Lots of out-of-state money flowing in.
– Defense firms back election deniers.
-15% swing to GOP by white suburban women.
– In review of book mentioned by brownbag guest, George Packer notes political violence in US 1917-21.
– Politico suggests Biden shouldn’t have shunned Chinese ambassador.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 11
– NYT says Biden is angry at Saudi Arabia.
– WSJ says Saudis “defied US warnings” about oil production cuts.
– RAND analyst says Putin’s successor likely to continue Ukraine war.
– Carl Bildt has suggestions for countering nuclear threat.
– Eliot Cohen assesses the next phase of the war.
– NYT warns of wider war between Tigray and Ethiopia.
– Lawfare analyzes little known authorization for counter-terror funding.
– WaPo has parade of horribles if Trump is reelected.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 21
– Former head of the National Intelligence Council Greg Treverton warns a civil war is coming to the US.
– Manchin friend Steve Clemons explains the breakdown.
– US & UK helping Ukraine prepare for Russian cyber attack.
– NYT says drones tipped balance in Ethiopia war.
– Reuters says Chinese spies have infiltrated Taiwan military.
– Atlantic Council warns of 2022 problems.
I somehow missed this from Charlie yesterday:
– I’m surprised and puzzled by the Manchin statement on the administration’s domestic policy bill. Normally, experienced politicians keep their word. And it sure looked like Biden was treating the Senator gingerly, never pressuring him in public. But something led Manchin to break publicly — his own ambitions? something Schumer did? something Biden or his top aides have done? The WH statement is extraordinary. Nevertheless, Biden needs Manchin for other things, as do his colleagues, so I expect renewed talks after thingds cool down.
– Sen. Cruz got his vote promised and he let some nominees through. This is normal.
– FP has a story on how interns run Washington.
– NYT has a new story on how China manipulates Facebook and Twitter.
– Don’t forget to keep checking CRS for new reports. Here’s one on Use of Force in Cyberspace. And an update on State/Foreign Ops appropriations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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