Tag: Ethiopia
A big potential success at risk
The International Crisis Group, the Organization of the African Unity, and others are rightly focused on preventing a humanitarian disaster in Tigray, where Ethiopian forces are threatening to take the regional capital Mekelle from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Tens of thousands have already fled the Tigray Region into Sudan and many other civilians may suffer horribly if the regional capital is assaulted. Reports of atrocities by both sides are rife.
My students and I met last January with TPLF officials and party members during our 12-day study trip to Ethiopia, when we were focused on the full range of ethnic conflicts brewing not only in the far north but also in the Oromo and Amhara regions as well as in the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region. Ethiopia, a country of more than 80 different and often intermingled ethnic groups, has enormous potential for internal ethnic conflict:
But the current conflict, severe as it is and could become in Tigray, is not really about Tigray. It is about Addis Ababa and who holds power there. The TPLFers we met with made it absolutely clear that they did not regard Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Nobel-Prize winning Prime Minister, as legitimate. In the Tigrayan view, he had usurped power by taking control of the ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and then moving its resources to his own Progress Party without the required consultation with the Tigrayans, who had in the past dominated the leadership not only of the EPRDF but also the army and other key institutions.
In September the TPLF insisted on holding elections in the Tigray region despite Abiy Ahmed’s postponement of national elections due to the Covid-19 epidemic. Ninety-eight per cent voted for the TPLF. Then, according to the Prime Minister, the TPLF attacked Ethiopian government forces stationed in the region. The message was clear: the TPLF wanted to control its own region without interference or presence from the Addis Ababa government. It is not surprising Abiy Ahmed reacted to the challenge to his authority.
It is going to take more than a ceasefire and accommodation of some sort in the Tigray region to settle things down, though that is the vital first step. The Ethiopian government, which frames the whole matter as a law enforcement issue, wants to arrest and try the TPLF leadership. The TPLF, with overwhelming support in its own region, wants at least autonomy if not (constitutionally guaranteed) secession, though some Tigrayans might be bought off with power-sharing of some sort in Addis Ababa. Certainly the Tigrayan loss of power there is strongly felt, not least because Abiy Ahmed’s much-vaunted agreement to end Ethiopia’s hostilities with Eritrea requires Tigrayan forces to withdraw from territory they have occupied for more than 20 years.
Even if the Tigray conflict is resolved, Ethiopia faces half a dozen other internal conflicts that might and do lead to so far localized violence. And its dispute with Egypt over control of the Blue Nile remains unresolved. Ethiopia is filling the lake behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but at a rate that for now will not drastically affect the flow of the Nile downstream. With more than 100 million people, Ethiopia is the second largest in Africa. Its success would be a big contribution to stability in the Horn and prosperity in much of the continent. But the risks are real.
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Stevenson’s army, November 20
Look how bad aircraft readiness rates have been, as reported by GAO.
A think tank reports on Japanese efforts to influence US policies
FP says Ethiopia risks becoming the new Yugoslavia..
Kori Schake warns against an attack on Iran.
Politico says Senate Republicans may approve Biden cabinet.
AP report on NDAA negotiations misses key context. It correctly notes that the bill contains a 3% military pay raise, but that in fact is the only reason an authorization bill is necessary. [Permanent law would give a smaller raise.] It fails to note that a presidential veto because of base names would be no real problem. Every other time the NDAA has been vetoed, a revised version has been quickly passed, deleting the criticized provisions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 6
The news media are waiting to “call” the election in any of several states that would give Biden enough electoral votes for the presidency.
The Biden-Harris campaign has a transition website ready to launch.
Politico has a daily “transition playbook” for news.
Control of the Senate won’t be settled until Georgia votes on Jan. 5.
WSJ says Democratic efforts failed to win control of more state legislatures in advance of redistricting.
And it looks like civil war in Ethiopia.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Tenuous transitions
“The two most populous countries in the Horn of Africa—Ethiopia and Sudan—are both struggling with once-in-a-generation political transitions. Complicating these already tenuous transitions is a convergence of worrying trends, such as widespread food insecurity, severe pressure on public finances, ongoing or unresolved internal conflicts, large numbers of displaced persons, and now, the coronavirus pandemic. The fate of the transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan may determine the broader prospects for peace in the region for years to come.” On May 28, the United States Institute of Peace held an online discussion on the specific challenges facing the political transitions in these countries. The discussion was led by Aly Verjee and featured four speakers:
Manal Taha: Sudan Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Aaron Maasho: Independent Journalist
Emebet Getachew: Ethiopia County Program Manager, Life and Peace Institute
Aly Verjee (Moderator): Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Current Context
In opening remarks, Verjee underscored that moments of great promise and great peril characterize the current transitions of both Ethiopia and Sudan. Striking parallels in regard to internal tensions, inclusivity, economic and environmental pressures, and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic tie these nations together despite their differences.
Sudan
Taha believes that in order to make any real progress, the transitional government of Sudan must change its focus of reform within the capital of Khartoum to the regions in which the revolution began. Security reform, in particular, remains complicated in Darfur because of the presence of various armed groups. During the transition in Sudan, the voices of youth and women have remained underrepresented. This notable weakness of the transitional government can in part be attributed to the inherent patriarchal social structure of Sudanese society. To remedy this problem, Taha calls for further solidarity among Sudanese women across political and socio-economic lines.
Knopf highlighted that in the year since the Sudanese revolution took place and Omar al-Bashir was deposed, many citizens maintained unrealistic expectations for the pace of change within Sudan. The vast majority of Sudanese people sense opportunity for renewal, reinvigorating Sudanese cultural pride and patriotism that was tarnished from years of brutality by the al-Bashir regime. The establishment of the transitional arrangement in Sudan avoided the worst-case scenarios of state fragmentation or dramatic escalation of violence.
Ethiopia
Speaking on the election of Abiy Ahmed as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Maasho noted that a sense of optimism initially erupted across the country. Since then, Ethiopia has remained quite fragile and ravaged by ethnic tensions and rivalry. In the last three years, ethnic violence has led to the displacement of nearly three million people. Although the Ethiopian government has pressured displaced peoples to return to their communities, further eruptions of violence remain likely. Notably, Maasho believes that Covid-19 has generated a downward economic trajectory that will exacerbate tensions.
Getachew stresses that the government of Abiy Ahmed is trying to further consolidate its power and build institutions reflective of its own interests. The failure to establish checks and balances will result in authoritarianism. It remains too early to discern whether democracy has truly arrived in Ethiopia. In regard to the status of women, Getachew praised the appointment of women to various governmental positions. Although this may signal that Ethiopians are ready for women to hold key positions within society, one must remain skeptical of deeply entrenched ideas that have informed gender-based discrimination.
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Peace Picks | May 26 – 30
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- The IRGC Quds Force After Suleimani | May 26, 2020 | 9:30 AM | Arab Gulf States Institute | Register Here
The January 3 killing of Major General Qassim Suleimani, commander of the expeditionary Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, brought the Quds Force further to the forefront of the Islamic Republic’s “maximum resistance” campaign to counter the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. However, the new Quds Force leadership is not only inheriting a military organization stretched thin over a vast geographic area but also faces greater public hostility against the Islamic Republic and its allies in places like Iraq, the main arena of rivalry between the United States and Iran.
How is the killing of Suleimani likely to change Iran’s grand strategy and Quds Force operations in Iraq and beyond? Who is Ismail Qaani, the new commander of the Quds force, and how is he likely to approach these challenges and adapt his organization to the changed circumstances?
Speakers:
Hussein Ibish (Moderator): Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute
Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute
Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute
General Joseph L. Votel: U.S. Army (Ret.)
- Nuclear Deterrence with Russia and China: How are U.S. Course Corrections Needed? | May 26, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
As the United States shifts the focus of its foreign and defense policies toward great‐power competition, experts have paid more attention to Russian and Chinese nuclear force postures and strategies. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) paints a concerning picture of recent developments in both potential adversaries, noting the growth of arsenals and approaches to nuclear strategy that vex U.S. policymakers. The assessments and threat perceptions laid out in the NPR will drive U.S. nuclear strategy for the rest of the Trump administration and potentially beyond because they inform plans for U.S. nuclear modernization.
In the two years since the 2018 NPR’s release, the Trump administration has put its stamp on America’s approach to nuclear deterrence. The administration is clearly worried about the nuclear arsenals and strategies of Russia and China, and many of the NPR’s more controversial items, such as the low‐yield Trident warhead, are explicitly tied to nuclear developments in potential great‐power adversaries.
But has the United States accurately diagnosed the most important problems posed by other great powers? Is Washington designing the right solutions to these problems? What are the risks of misdiagnoses and/or wrong policy solutions? The COVID-19 pandemic has made finding answers to these questions all the more urgent. The economic fallout of the public health emergency will likely create strong budgetary pressures and subject the multidecade, $1 trillion–plus nuclear modernization plan to closer scrutiny.
Speakers:
Eric Gomez: Director of Defense Policy Studies, CATO Institute
Fiona Cunningham: Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University
Michael Kofman: Direction of the Russia Studies Program, CNA
Amy F. Woolf: Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress
- Democracy’s Defenders – American Diplomacy in the age of COVID-19 | May 26, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookings | Register Here
In his new book, “Democracy’s Defenders: U.S. Embassy Prague, the Fall of Communism in Czechoslovakia, and Its Aftermath,” Brookings Senior Fellow Norman Eisen examines the role of American diplomats in supporting the end of Communism three decades ago and promoting democratic values since.
On May 26, Governance Studies at Brookings and the Transatlantic Democracy Working Group will co-host a webinar to discuss themes in Eisen’s latest book. Panelists will explore the role of the foreign service in advancing American values abroad, what we can learn from the successes and failures of U.S. foreign policy in Central and Eastern Europe over the past three decades, and the lessons foreign policy holds for all those facing the challenges of transatlantic relations today. The talk will also focus on how American diplomacy and transatlantic democracy has responded to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Today many of those same Czechs and Slovaks are walking the identical boulevards, now wearing masks—does the U.S. still support them in this latest crisis?
Speakers:
Norman Eisen (Moderator) : Senior Fellow, Governance Studies
Alina Polyakova: Former Brookings Expert, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis
Jeff Gedmin: Editor-in-Chief of The American Interest, Senior Fellow-Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, Co-chair-Transatlantic Democracy Working Group
- Humanitarian Operations During COVID-19 : A Conversation with Michelle Nunn of CARE USA |May 26, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 4: 45PM | Center for Strategic & International Studies | Register Here
The spread of Covid-19 continues to dominate global attention. Governments are primarily focusing efforts on the domestic response to the virus. With 168 million people in need of humanitarian assistance globally, including 70 million forcibly displaced, understanding how the pandemic will impact the most vulnerable is vital to implementing an effective response. In this upcoming series, the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda will speak with leadership across humanitarian institutions about the challenges their organizations face during Covid-19. Our featured guests will give their insights on how the pandemic is changing the humanitarian landscape and the impact it has on the delivery of lifesaving assistance now and in the near future.
The Center for Strategic & International Studies is pleased to invite Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, for a discussion on CARE’s response to the pandemic and the challenges they foresee on the horizon. This conversation will look at what strategies have been implemented, with a particular focus on the gender and economic development impacts of the pandemic.
Speakers:
Michelle Nunn: President and CEO, CARE USA
Jacob Kurtzer: Interim Director and Senior, Humanitarian Agenda
Katherine Bliss: Senior Fellow, Global Health Policy Center
- Tenuous Transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan | May 28, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:45 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The two most populous countries in the Horn of Africa—Ethiopia and Sudan—are both struggling with once-in-a-generation political transitions. Complicating these already tenuous transitions is a convergence of worrying trends, such as widespread food insecurity, severe pressure on public finances, ongoing or unresolved internal conflicts, large numbers of displaced persons, and now, the coronavirus pandemic. The fate of the transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan may determine the broader prospects for peace in the region for years to come.
At this critical time in history for the Horn of Africa, join USIP and experts from Ethiopia and Sudan for a discussion on the specific challenges facing the political transitions in these two countries, as well as key parallels.
Speakers:
Aly Verjee (Moderator): Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Manal Taha: Sudan Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Aaron Maasho: Independent Journalist
Emebet Getachew: Ethiopia Country Program Manager, Life and Peace Institute
- Iran, Russia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan: Prospects and Potential Trajectories | May 28, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM |Middle East Institute| Register Here
As the United States continues to engage in peace talks with the Taliban, even as Washington considers its future military presence in Afghanistan, the country’s uncertain future provides an opportunity for regional power competition. Recent developments have laid the groundwork for coordination between Iran and Russia in this space, a cooperation which has implications for Iran’s rivalry with Pakistan. At stake in this interplay of regional interests are long-term geopolitical, military and economic interests that can be shaped for years to come.
How might Iran approach the divergent and common interests of Iran, Russia and Pakistan in Afghanistan? What are Iran’s priorities, and where might opportunities emerge for cooperation or conflict? How might Iran balance these competing interests, and what will be the impact on the ground in Afghanistan? The Middle East Institute is proud to host a group of experts to address these questions and more.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Foreign Policy program, The Brookings Institution
Fatemeh Aman: Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council
Kamran Bokhari: Director of analytical development, Center for Global Policy
Amin Tarzi: Director, Middle East studies, Marine Corps University
Alex Vatanka: (Moderator) Senior Fellow and Director, Iran program, Middle East Institute
- Jihadism at a crossroads | May 29, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Brookings | Register Here
Although jihadist groups have gripped the world’s attention for more than 20 years, today they are no longer in the spotlight. However, ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab remain active, and new groups have emerged. The movement as a whole is evolving, as is the threat it poses.
On May 29, the Center for Middle East Policy will host a virtual panel event to discuss the current status of jihadist groups. The panel will feature Thomas Hegghammer, senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment and author of the new book, “The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad.” Other panelists will include Tricia Bacon, assistant professor at American University, and Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Brookings Senior Fellow Daniel Byman will moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Daniel L. Byman (Moderator): Senior Fellow-Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow-Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy, Director- The Intelligence Project
Tricia Bacon: Professional Lecturer, School of Public Affairs, American University
Thomas Hegghammer: Senior Research Fellow-Norweigan Defence Research Establishment (FFI)
- Strained Cooperation or a Final Rupture? China – U.S. Relations Amidst a Global Pandemic | May 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The discourse surrounding Sino-US relations in the past decade has often been framed in the context of the “Thucydides Trap,” where conflict between a rising power (China) and the world’s incumbent power (America) is inevitable. The global pandemic has heightened international tensions and is testing global cooperation frameworks. This forum on Saturday, May 30, invites Dr. Adam Webb, Dr. David Arase and Dr. David Bulman to discuss how the global pandemic is impacting nternational relations.
Speakers:
Dr. Adam Webb: American Co-Director, Hopkins-Nanjing Center, Resident Professor of Political Science
Dr. David Arase: Resident Professor of International Politics, Hopkins- Nanjing Center
Dr. David Bulman: Jill McGovern and Steven Muller Assistant Professor of International Affairs and China Studies, Director of Pacific Community Initiative at Johns Hopkins University SAIS
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