peacefare.net

The Balkans stalled

I gave this interview to Vijesti.ba this morning:

Q: Another attempt to break Bosnia’s long-running political deadlock and form a new state-level government has failed. Milorad Dodik said that September 5 is the deadline to resolve the dispute, according to an agreement that was signed by Dodik himself, Bakir Izetbegović, Dragan Čović. If they fail to meet the deadline, Dodik has threatened Republic of Srpska will pull out of agreements that allowed the formation of ethnically-mixed armed forces, the state court and the national police agency. What consequences could cause such Dodik’s intention?
A: Dodik is determined to undermine the Bosnian state. I’m not sure what “pulling out” would really mean in practice at this stage, when the institutions mentioned already exist, but he could certainly make it difficult for them to function effectively.

Q: Western Balkans countries do not seem to be making any progress as the time passes by – a Beograd-Priština dialogue is still deadlocked, Bosnia’s state-level government hasn’t still been formed… Do you think United States should increase their engagement in the Western Balkans countries? And if yes – in what context?
A: I think the US needs a policy before I can answer the question about increased engagement. If that policy includes ethnically-based land swaps in Kosovo, I would oppose increased engagement because it would destabilize Bosnia and Macedonia and give Putin a big present in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. If it includes determination to make Bosnia and Herzegovina a functional state that can qualify for EU membership, I would be in favor.

Q: Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić recently met with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York. What do you see as a main goal of such Vučić’s visit?
A: Vucic is sitting on two stools, or three if you count Beijing. He wants to keep the US convinced that he is part of the solution in the Balkans and not part of the problem.

Q: Vučić says Serbia can’t recognize Kosovo in the current circumstances – “They will never get my signature to give the Albanians everything and Serbia nothing.” What is your comment?

A: I’ve outlined in detail what I think Serbia can “get.” First and foremost is removal of a significant barrier to EU accession. The rest is gravy.