Tag: European Unioin
Geopolitics will take its revenge
One thing is clear this morning: Russian President Putin has chosen war as an instrument of national policy. He has been unequivocal: Ukraine is not a real state, it should not be allowed to choose its own allies, and Russian security interests require that it be under Moscow’s control. The blah-blah about genocide against Russian speakers is nonsense. There is no evidence for it. Putin is attacking Ukraine today because he wants to and can.
Fog of war means we need to await the outcome
Ukraine will be defending itself, without allies. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and other cities have been attacked. Civilians are streaming west to areas they hope will be relatively peaceful. It is hard to miss the analogy to Hitler’s March 1938 Anschluss against Austria, which Fiona Hill noted yesterday on NPR. Most Ukrainians will not welcome the Russians, but their army is far weaker than Russia’s. If the outcome the balance of forces decides the outcome, it will be in Moscow’s favor.
But will to fight and persistence are important factors as well. We just don’t know how strongly the Ukrainians will resist and how long that resistance will last. Putin has signaled that his forces will be brutal, but Ukrainians in the past have proven remarkably resilient, including against the Soviet-perpetrated Holodomor famine that Stalin imposed in the early 1930s. Some of the people fighting now will be descendants of Ukrainians who resisted collectivization then.
We are still in the fog of war and will need to wait to learn the outcome.
Western sanctions are vigorous but won’t have immediate effect
Europe, the UK, and the US are reacting with strong sanctions and in a far more unified way than many had expected just a few weeks ago. Russian banks, oligarchs, and the state will be cut off from Western funding. The Nordstream 2 pipeline to carry natural as from Russia to Germany is suspended if not defunct. The West will be blocking advanced technology from transfer to Moscow.
None of this will change Putin’s mind. He has already taken sanctions into account. Rarely do economic sanctions quickly change any autocrat’s mind about security issues. It is only when you negotiate relief from sanctions, not when you impose them, that you have any real hope of getting what you want. We are witnessing that in the Iran deal negotiations right now.
The world should be on alert
Russia’s irredentist war on Ukraine should alert everyone worldwide to the possibility other autocrats will seek to enlarge their borders, citing cultural affinity, historic claims, or humanitarian goals. In the post-Soviet space, that means all the former republics, but it also extends to the Balkans. There Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina need worry about Serb revanchism.
Moscow could also be thinking about going beyond Ukraine, if this initial invasion is successful. The Baltic members of NATO understand this perfectly well and did their best to arm Ukraine against Russia. They are also welcoming additional American and other NATO forces.
Farther afield, Taiwan needs to worry about China, whose claim to sovereignty over the island is stronger than Russia’s claims against Ukraine. Pakistan should worry about its Durrand Line border with Afghanistan, which even the American-supported governments in Kabul contested. India needs to worry about its longstanding border dispute with China. There are dozens of other border disputes in Asia that could be aggravated if one country or another decides to settle them by force.
The revenge of geopolitics
A geopolitical world in which military power decides issues of territorial control may eventually reach some sort of equilibrium, but it could take a long time. If things go well for Russia, it may be decades before the world settles down. But if things go well for Ukraine, the Russian Federation will be in big trouble. Its people won’t appreciate defeat and will try to change their government. Its many minorities will seek their own territorial control.
Geopolitics will take its revenge, one way or the other.
PS: The criminal falsely citing law:
The voice of reason, to which Putin will not listen:
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Changing of the guard: Montenegro and the US
Biljana Jovićević of Antenna M asked me some questions yesterday, prompted by a previous interview where I was cited as having praised Dritan Abazovic, the current deputy prime minister of Montenegro. I replied:
Q: Having in mind your respective field of expertise I am quite sure that you are familiar with the current political situation in Montenegro. Could you please be so kind to give us your assessment of new unfolding events in Montenegro in the last few months?
A: My sense is that pro-Russian and pro-Serbia forces dominate the new Montenegro government. Decision-making roles have gone predominantly to ethnonationalists, including in the security sector. The Serbian Orthodox Church is pleased and has reason to be. There is no sign of a technocratic government.
Q: In your recent statement for a Kosovo media you have said that you would like to see in Kosovo a civic option something like Montenegrin URA lead by now VP Dritan Abazović, but that is not possible because of the mostly ethnic segregation. Do you believe that URA and Mr. Abazović currently plays a constructive role in Montenegro society–which is seen by many now–as an enabler of the extreme right wing, clerical Government?
Q: I said I would like to see Kosovo with a civic option. The interviewer mentioned URA. I did not. URA has not fulfilled promises to insist on a truly technocratic government, to restrain ethnonationalist forces, and to bring minorities into the coalition. I don’t see URA as successful in fulfilling the role of a civic option.
A: Without any doubt Montenegro for a long time needed changes and reform, most of all to fight against corruption, nepotism and cronyism. But new right wing government, and let’s not forget with pro-Russian orientation–supported by URA, certainly is not an expert government. For the critics–what they show up until now is the same pattern of behavior as their predecessors regarding nepotism and cronyism. And apart from that they are in especially fast mode of implementing Serbian nationalist agenda in Montenegro. Do you believe that this kind of changes can bring Montenegro closer to the EU ?
A: No. Montenegro’s current course will slow its progress toward the EU as well as raise doubts within NATO whether Podgorica can be trusted.
Q: President -elect Biden, VP Harris and his administration will take the oath tomorrow–hopefully if the US manage to escape any dramatic or scary scenery. In that regard I have few more questions for you: having in mind the scale of a crisis that we are witnessing in the US and difficult job in front on Biden administration, when is it realistic to expect for them to become more engaged on Balkans and in which direction?
A: It will be months before the people concerned with the Balkans are put in place and the Europeans are consulted on the way forward. I would advise patience.
Q: Hardly that in this unprecedented time in the US Balkans can be among priorities, but Mr. Biden’s nominees for the State Department are people with great knowledge about this part of the world, so what should be their first steps on Balkans in your opinion?
A: I hope they will first consult with the Europeans and develop a common, agreed platform for the Balkans. When Brussels and Washington act in unison, good things happen. Biden will prefer that to Trump’s unilateralist approach.
Q: I had followed your hearing last month in the House committee for foreign relations, you were there with the Secretary Albright and with Mr. Bugajski and you offered recommendations for Balkans. Although focus was on Kosovo and Bosnia, much of the talk was about Serbia as well. But you had barely mentioned Montenegro and if I remember correctly only you mentioned that like in Bosnia and Kosovo–Serbia now trying to destabilize and Montenegro–but that was all. I was quite surprised.
A: I said on that occasion what I thought was most important: Belgrade is doing things to destabilize Montenegro. I have no problem with an opposition coming to power, but I would hope to see a pro-NATO, pro-EU government with the support of minorities.
Q: And in the and – after everything that has happened in the US in last four years (with impact on the whole world) and as we are approaching possible culmination with right wing white nationalist who are threatening with riot in all 50 states–what is your take about rising right wing parties and fringes groups all around world, their infiltrations in mainstream and consequence that we are facing? If the US is barely dealing with it, what can we expect in places like Balkans? How to fight back ?
A: We are all going to be called upon to defend democracy from right wing extremists and ethnonationalists who think they should be privileged to govern. The real possibility of alternation in power is essential to democracy, but if the alternation brings to power people who are anti-democratic, that is a big problem.
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