Tag: European Union
Neither nothingburger nor whopper
The 30-day fighting pause agreed today between Ukraine and the US is not a nothingburger. But it isn’t a whopper either. More like a quarter-burger.
No pause is a pause until both warring parties have agreed. I imagine the Americans have good reason to hope the Russians will sign on. But it isn’t a real agreement until they do.
What else did they say?
The Ukrainians offered fulsome gratitude to President Trump, the US Congress, and Americans for their assistance. Trump and Vance had complained they hadn’t thanked the US enough.
The US says it is lifting the pause on intelligence sharing and military assistance. Administration officials are claiming neither entirely stopped.
Some Ukrainian humanitarian priorities are cited: exchange of prisoners, release of civilians, and return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children. These are not new items, and there has been sporadic progress in the past. But for Kyiv they are important.
The Americans and Ukrainians agreed to name negotiating teams for discussions aimed at an enduring peace and Ukrainian long-term security. The Ukrainians want the Europeans involved in the negotiations.
Presidents Trump and Zelensky agreed to conclude a comprehensive critical minerals agreement. This is presumably like the one they didn’t sign at the White House 10 days ago. It is supposed to expand Ukraine’s economy and “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.”
What’s missing?
I don’t see anything objectionable in this statement. But it leaves out a lot. It makes no mention of Russia’s continuing occupation of Ukrainian territory. It neglects the need for security guarantees beyond the minerals agreement, which is insufficient. The statement says nothing about Russian aggression and responsibility for compensation. It does not assert American support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. It leaves the Americans free to continue excluding the Europeans from the negotiations.
Of course the parties can cover all these issues in the future. But their neglect here tells you how far the US has gone in tilting towards support for Moscow. Nothing in this statement should cause any concern there. If Putin rejects the ceasefire offer, it will betray his lack of interest, not anything in this document.
What next?
If Moscow agrees, we’ll get a 30-day pause. Both sides will try to rearm, consolidate, redeploy, resupply, and prepare for more. I imagine it will be done initially without the trappings of a real ceasefire. It can be built out in subsequent iterations if both sides agree.
The critical question is whether the Americans are really going to continue intel sharing and military assistance. They may start using them to force the Ukrainians’ hand, switching on and off on a daily or weekly basis. The Russians would no doubt take advantage of that on the battlefield, as they have in recent days.
If Trump really wants success, he’ll use any Russian hesitation to tighten the sanctions on Moscow. The Russian economy is in deep difficulty.
Tightening sanctions might have a salutary effect on Putin’s willingness to deal. But Putin has weathered them so far. And Trump shows no signs of taking advantage of the opportunity, even though he has mentioned it in public.
This agreement between the US and Ukraine may not stop the war between Russia and Ukraine. But let’s hope it stops the war between Washington and Kyiv.
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Proving the opposite of what he intends
President Dodik is trying to assert de facto independence of Republika Srpska (RS). That is the 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina he controls. He is doing this to escape arrest and removal from office after his conviction by a Bosnian court last month. Dodik was found guilty of defying both the Bosnian Constitutional Court and decisions of the international community’s High Representative. He compounded that violation Friday with new laws. They nullify the powers of the country’s judiciary, police, and intelligence services in Republika Srpska.
So far so good
NATO, the EU, and the Americans have reacted appropriately. NATO Secretary General Rutte is in Sarajevo today reasserting the Alliance commitment to the Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Europeans are sending 400 more peacekeepers, bringing the total to 1100. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tweeted:
The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.
All this is good.
More needs doing
But more could easily be done. I would like the peacekeepers to go to Brcko. It is the northeastern Bosnian town that was the center of gravity of the 1990s war. It will be the center of gravity of any new conflict as well. Without it, the RS cannot secede.
I also hope the NATO troops can, once the Constitutional Court nullifies his new laws, provide support to arrest Dodik. It would be a mistake to allow him to escape accountability. If he flees to Moscow or Hungary, that would be second best.
Dodik’s support
The Russians are supporting Dodik, as is Hungary’s russophile Prime Minister Orban. Moscow finances Dodik and objects to High Representative decisions. It sees RS as akin to the Russian-occupied oblasts of Ukraine. Orban has reportedly sent special forces to extract Dodik from RS if need be.
Serbian President Vucic has met with Dodik and provided rhetorical support, but he won’t want to RS independence. That would put him in a difficult position. The EU would want him not to recognize. His own electorate would want him not only to recognize but then also to annex the RS. If he does, Dodik will become a rival in Belgrade.
It is unclear how much support Dodik has within Bosnia. Even in RS, many people think he is going too far to protect himself, not its majority Serb population. His opposition will not enthusiastically welcome his arrest, but they won’t complain too much. He has dominated RS politics for almost two decades. Is “dovoljno” the right word?
The future of the RS
Dodik’s defiance is making it clear Bosnia can’t progress if RS continues to defy its courts, laws, and police. The ultimate solution lies in constitutional reform, which is difficult. In the meanwhile, progress on security, human rights, and political reform is possible. The right direction for the country as a whole is more individual rights and less group rights. That is what the European Court of Human Rights has ordered. Group rights to identify candidates as well as veto legislative and executive action empower ethnic nationalist politicians like Dodik. They make serious preparation for European Union membership impossible.
Dodik is, ironically, proving the opposite of what he intends. He is trying to show that the RS should be unconstrained by law and order. What he is really showing is that an unconstrained RS is a barrier to Bosnia’s functionality and EU future. It is time Dodik pays the price of his own criminal acts.
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Americans deserve better but may not get it
Trump and Zelensky were doing fine yesterday:
Zelensky had several times challenged Trump. Europeans, Zelensky said, had provided more aid than the US and it did not have to be paid back. He noted Putin’s record of violating agreements, as well as his torture of prisoners and theft of Ukrainian children. Trump was taking it, even though it made him visiblyu uncomfortable.
The culprit was Vance
Things went south about 39:50, when JD Vance chimed in about the virtues of diplomacy rather than force. Zelensky responded “what kind of diplomacy?” But things only went off the rails when Vance then called Zelensky disrespectful. He had not been disrespectful, though he was clearly annoyed that the VP was chiming in. It was Vance who was being disrespectful.
Quarreling at that point was unwise. Zelensky should have said “we’ll have to disagree about the prospects for successful diplomacy.” Or “I agree about diplomacy, but it has to be backed by strength.” Or “diplomacy with security guarantees makes sense to me.” But give the man a break: he was exhausted and tired of these Russian dupes.
Why did Vance do it?
There are several possible explanations for why Vance made the false claim that Zelensky was disrespectful:
- They had met privately in advance of this public session. I had the sense there was already bad blood between them. Maybe it just flowed out.
- Trump and Vance may have agreed that the President would play good cop while the VP played bad cop.
- Vance may have decided the meeting was going too well and that his minders in Moscow would not be pleased.
- Trump and Vance may have (rightly) decided the agreement Zelensky was about to sign was a nothing burger.
Whatever the cause, it was, as Tom Nichols put it in The Atlantic, an ambush. Zelensky was not at fault.
Humpty dumpty
The question now is whether Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again. I doubt it. It was not just this meeting that went badly. Trump’s entire initiative for peace in Ukraine is cockeyed. He is trying to wean Russia from China and make Moscow a friend of the US. That isn’t going to happen. Putin knows his country is nothing without Chinese backing. He certainly won’t trade it for the uncertainties of US support.
But there is no telling with Trump. He is a bad negotiator. He concedes things up front that he needn’t concede. Trump holds back on things that need to be clear up front. He reverses himself even on issues he has said are vital. The European backing for Zelensky should make an honest US president wonder if he has got this right. But of course Trump despises the Euros. And he isn’t honest
America will shrink
That leaves us with a giant split in the NATO Alliance. Trump is aligned with Russia. The Europeans align with Ukraine. But will the Euros get their act together to fill in for the US aid Trump will cancel? If they don’t Putin will win this war. Then after a few years of rearmament he will start a new one in Moldova, then Poland or the Baltics.
America will have shrunk to a Western Hemisphere power pining after Panama and Greenland. And complaining to Mexico and Canada about the drugs Americans are abusing. Washington will be unable and unwilling to defend its allies in either Europe or Asia. Our economy will be noncompetitive due to tariff protection. The society will return to its tradition of white robber baron supremacy. Americans deserve better but may not get it.
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Who should decide Bosnia’s fate?
I am delighted to see Milorad Dodik, president of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska (RS), held accountable. A Bosnian court convicted him Wednesday for his refusal to implement decisions of the international community’s High Representative.
But let’s not celebrate too much. Some of us remember how war criminal Radovan Karadzic behaved after the war in Bosnia. He continued to govern in the RS even though barred from office. Only when he went underground to escape capture did he lose control.
Dodik can pay a fine to escape the one-year prison sentence. The six-year ban on holding office will prove meaningless unless his loyalists are removed from power.
Is the bear a paper tiger?
That said, Dodik, known as the “Bosnian bear,” has so far been unable to rouse his supporters to outright rebellion. His threats of secession are proving hollow.
Serbian President Vucic will make a show of backing Dodik, but Belgrade doesn’t want the RS to secede. That would put Vucic in a tight spot. If he recognizes an independent RS, the European Union will be unhappy. If he doesn’t, his own ethnic nationalist constituency will be unhappy. Better for him if Dodik remains non grata and unable to compete politically. Vucic isn’t the first Serbian president to fear competition in Belgrade from a Bosnian Serb nationalist.
Only time will tell, but Dodik could be a paper tiger.
The self-licking ice cream cone
That won’t solve Bosnia’s problems. They are rooted in a stubbornly unreformed constitution the US and EU imposed at Dayton in 1995. It ended the war at the cost of functional governance. Changing that will require a new configuration of Bosnian politicians willing to risk the disapproval of ethnic nationalists. That configuration is difficult to produce because the constitution favors the election of ethnic nationalists. It’s a self-licking ice cream cone.
Dodik is only one mainstay of this self-perpetuating system. Croat nationalist Dragan Covic is another. He is still in place. Dodik’s plight will frighten Covic and make him an even harder line ethnic nationalist. He wants a “third entity” in Bosnia and is currying Moscow’s favor to get it.
Bosniak politicians also play the ethnic nationalist game. But they are more divided than either the Serbs or the Croats. They are also less fearful of a one-person/one-vote system. Their numerical majority gives them more confidence they can defend their vital interests.
The reforms needed
The needed reforms are no secret. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly said what Bosnia needs to do for EU membership. Jasmin Mujanovic has analyzed the options. Ismet Fatih Cancar has has outlined a route to Dayton 2.0, including NATO membership. But political leadership in these directions has been lacking.
Also lacking is international pressure in the right directions. The Biden Administration chose to appease Vucic and allowed the HiRep to coddle Covic. Jared Kushner’s business interests in Belgrade compromise the new Trump Administration from the start. Trump himself is an ethnic nationalist. If he agrees to partition of Ukraine, even temporarily, all bets are off for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So the fate of Bosnia is where it should be: with its citizens. The conviction of Dodik can help, but far more is needed.
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Deal, no deal, ceasefire, peace agreement?
Ukrainian President Zelensky will meet Friday with President Trump to sign a minerals agreement the Americans have been insisting on. The Financial Times reports:
The final version of the agreement, dated February 25 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine.
The $500 billion demand has disappeared. No security guarantees are included. The US stake in the fund is unspecified.
Deal, or no deal?
It is hard to know what to think about this, as it all depends on the details and on implementation. It is certainly not common practice for countries providing support to insist on repayment. But Trump is Trump. Personally, I wouldn’t sign anything he offers, but Zelensky is in a difficult spot. I hope he knows what he is doing.
The bigger question is whether this will bring Trump around to supporting Ukraine rather than Russia. I doubt it. Moscow will offer to match any terms Zelensky signs for minerals at least in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Trump won’t resist. Two deals of this sort will solidify partition.
What now?
Trump will continue to insist on peace talks. He desperately wants credit for ending the war. He has already given President Putin most of what Moscow wants. Trump is ready to accept Russian occupation of the territory it controls inside Ukraine. He has blamed Ukraine for the war. And he no doubt wants to end the shipment of arms to what he regards as the losing side.
Ukraine can do without the arms, at least for the next year or so. President Biden shipped ample supplies. The more important question is whether the US is prepared to continue providing intelligence. That is vital to Ukraine’s targeting. Also important to Ukraine is the use of Elon Musk’s StarLink satellite network, which it uses for military communications.
Trump’s reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine makes the Europeans more important than ever. If they step up their military supplies, Ukraine has a chance to outlast Russia in the current war of attrition. If they don’t, Kyiv’s manpower shortage will become ever more visible and relevant. Ukraine needs both Europe’s arms and its economic and financial support.
What about peace?
If Trump continues to insist, a ceasefire is a real possibility. Both Ukraine and Russia need a respite, during which they will resupply and reorganize for renewed fighting. The Europeans are saying they are prepared to observe a ceasefire. But the confrontation line is 600 miles long, with forces on both sides stronger than any the Europeans will deploy. The experience of monitoring a much shorter confrontation line in southern Lebanon does not bode well.
Neither Kyiv nor Moscow seems to me prepared to compromise on their basic war aims. Russia wants to limit Ukraine’s sovereign choices, like joining NATO. Ukraine wants Russia out of all of its territory, including Crimea. There may be a mutually hurting stalemate, but there is no mutually enticing way out. A ceasefire will give both sides time to contemplate whether one exists, but they certainly haven’t defined one yet.
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The hour of Europe really has arrived
The three-year anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has come and gone, with lots of fanfare. But nothing more discordant than the US vote in the General Assembly. Washington voted with Moscow and its friends against a resolution condemning the invasion. For the Trump Administration, calling an invasion aggression was just too much.
The real estate mogul views war
Trump has upended US policy on Ukraine. He has blamed Kyiv for the Russian invasion and asked for repayment of US aid. The Americans are talking with Russia about an end to the war without Ukrainians or Europeans in the room.
But none of that is the worst. The core problem is not procedural or rhetorical. It is the solution Trump will favor. He sees the war as a fight over territory, which he will propose to divide. Russia will keep whatever it has conquered and Ukraine will get the rest. This is a real estate mogul’s view of war. He takes a similar view of Gaza. It’s about territory for him. Get rid of the people and rebuild to Israel’s specifications, which means no Palestinians.
I need hardly mention that he is treating Panama, Canada, and Greenland with the same territorial eye.
It’s about sovereignty, not territory
But Ukraine is not about territory. Nor are Panama, Canada, and Greenland. Or even Gaza. In all these places the real issue is sovereignty, not territory. The Canada proposition is an obvious bad joke. It has already caused Canadians to look more to the UK and Europe for their future security. They are correct to do so.
But Panama and Greenland have good reason to fear Trump’s intentions. Neither is strong enough on its own to resist. The 1989 American invasion of Panama is forgotten in America, but it is living memory in Panama. Greenland has no military, and Denmark has a tiny one (16,000 total). Pituffik Space Base, until recently Thule Air Base, has fewer than 1000 Americans and contractors. If the US wanted to expand it, Denmark would no doubt have tried to cooperate. The Danes would also welcome US investment in mineral exploration and exploitation in Greenland. But Trump’s insistence on buying the island, and threatening that otherwise he’ll take it by force, will generate resistance. Denmark is small, but sovereign.
Sovereignty isn’t divisible, but it is shareable
The problem with sovereignty is that it isn’t divisible. But it is shareable. The European Union is a case of shared sovereignty. Its currency, the euro, belongs to no single member state. Likewise its common market and its rules for the circulation of people, capital, and services.
The Minsk I and II agreements that Moscow and Kyiv negotiated, but never implemented, entailed shared sovereignty. Let’s leave aside who would have benefited most and who was responsible for their non-implementation. They would have required Kyiv to devolve authority. That would have given Moscow a good deal of say in the governance of Russian speakers in Donbas. But it would have left the rest of Ukraine unconstrained.
Putin wants it all
For Putin, Ukraine is not about territory. He will accept a ceasefire. But he will not respect a serious solution that leaves even part of Ukraine as a sovereign state. That would mean Kyiv can make its own choices, like joining NATO, or developing nuclear weapons. Russia wouldn’t like that.
I still have some hope that Europe will step into the gap the US is leaving. The Europeans have more at risk. They have also paid more to date:
If Europe comes up with the $700 billion rumored, that would give Ukraine the means to outlast Putin. It would also give Europe the clout to counterbalance the US. Those are two desirable outcomes, under current circumstances.
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