Tag: European Union
Big fish caught in Serbia, lots of questions unanswered
Yes: the US Treasury has sanctioned Aleksandar Vulin, the head of Serbia’s Security Intelligence Agency, former Defense and Interior Minister, and bestie to President Vucic. His misdeeds, according to the US, include drug and arms trafficking as well as facilitating malign Russian influence. This is a big step. I heartily welcome it.
Questions
Then come the questions. Why wasn’t this done earlier? The world has known about Vulin’s misdeeds for years. The US did not just discover that Vulin has been trafficking in drugs and arms. Maybe he trafficked in the wrong directions recently? His subservience to Russian objectives is also well known. Did he send some weapons to Russia, to compensate for the much-ballyhooed Serbian munitions going to Ukraine?
Vulin is, among other things, the leading advocate for “the Serbian world.” That is a concept hard to distinguish from Greater Serbia, Milosevic’s aim in the wars in Croatia and Bosnia. It is also an analogue to “the Russian world,” the banner under which Putin is trying to carve out parts of Ukraine. President Vucic has avoided associating himself too closely with the concept, though he has pursued it in practice in Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro.
That raises the question of whether Vucic knew about the sanctions move before they happened. Did he object? Did he welcome them as a way of dissociating himself from someone who had become a liability in dealing with the Americans and the Europeans? And how will he react now that it is done? Will he fire Vulin or keep him on? Or will he shifted elsewhere to keep him out of the way until the time comes for resurrection?
No answers yet
I can’t answer any of these questions yet. The Americans aren’t likely to comment on the timing of this move. But an enterprising journalist might get them to link a bit more derogatory information. Vucic is unlikely to fire Vulin outright, unless he has reason to believe that Vulin, like Yevgeny Prigozhin, was planning to contest his hold on power. If Vulin is kept on, it will be a clear sign of where Vucic stands: not with the West. If he is shunted off someplace, the signal may remain ambiguous.
We’ll need to wait and see how things shake out.
What if Vucic turns westward?
This moment is an opportunity for Vucic. If he really wants to turn westward and embrace Serbia’s European prospect, he could use the occasion of US sanctions on Vulin to good effect. That would mean not only firing him but expelling the extensive Russian intelligence service presence in Serbia, aligning Serbia with EU sanctions on Russia, closing Moscow’s supposedly humaniarian base near Nis, ending support for Serbia’s agents inside Kosovo and Montenegro, and disowning Milorad Dodik’s efforts to separate Republika Srpska from the authority of Sarajevo’s institutions.
Vucic could also mend democracy in Serbia. That would entail freeing the media from government domination, respecting the independence of the judiciary, restraining the police, favoring gun control, and encouraging freedom of expression and association. Not to mention moving quickly to implement the acquis communautaire requirements for EU admission.
First to applaud
I’ll be the first to applaud if anything like that happens. But it won’t. Whatever happened with Vulin, Serbia’s broader turn westward still seems far off.
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Is bankrupting Republika Srpska a good idea?
Republika Srpska (RS) President Dodik has for years sliced the salami thin piece by thin piece. He is getting his sub-national entity, the 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territory that is majority Serb, closer to independence. With Russian backing, he is now taking bigger slices. The RS Assembly has passed a law that invalidates the authority of the Bosnian Constitutional Court on his entity’s territory. He has also declared his intention to hold a referendum on independence before the end of the year.
Ethnonationalism is the creed
I take these moves seriously. Elections in Republika Srpska are neither free nor fair. But there is no reason to doubt that Dodik has more than majority support there. He can’t go on promising independence forever. He needs to try to deliver at some point.
The popular appeal of independence to the people who live in the RS is mainly ethnonationalist. The RS conducted an ethnonationalist war against the Bosnian state in 1992-95, including the Srebrenica genocide and other instances of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Dayton peace agreements preserved the RS and gave it, despite its criminal history, international validity as a subnational entity and a great deal of autonomy. Many people who live in the RS view it as protecting them from retaliation.
Dodik was not personally involved in the atrocities of the Bosnian war, so far as I know. At the time, he was an opposition member of the RS Assembly seen in the West as a relative moderate. But that does not diminish his present willingness to exploit ethnonationalist passions for political purposes. Since his campaign for the Bosnian presidency in 2006, he has made himself the leading nationalist voice in the RS.
But Dodik is not only interested in satisfying the ethnonationalist craving for security from revenge by those the RS once displaced, imprisoned, tortured, and killed. He has two other interests to tend.
Dodik’s other interests: impunity
The first is to keep himself out of the hands of any legal system, domestic or foreign, that will hold him accountable for corrupt practices. When it imposed sanctions on Dodik in 2022, the US Treasury alleged:
“Dodik is also being designated pursuant to E.O. 14033 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having directly or indirectly engaged in, corruption related to the Western Balkans. Specifically, he has established a patronage network in BiH from which he and his associates benefit. As one example of his corrupt actions, Dodik has provided government contracts and monopolies in the RS directly to close business associates. With his corrupt proceeds, Dodik has engaged in bribery and additional corrupt activities to further his personal interests at the expense of citizens in the RS.”
The Treasury also alleged that, using a company (ATV) he personally controls,
“Dodik has awarded ATV-related contracts directly to members of his family, which he has used as yet another avenue for corruption. He has funneled money directly from public companies to ATV for corrupt purposes. Dodik has substantially increased funding for ATV in recent years and engaged in malign social media influence campaigns through ATV to publish content that advances his political and personal goals.”
I too would want impunity, had I been credibly accused of these things. Too bad the Europeans haven’t followed the US lead on sanctions.
Dodik’s other interests: state property
The second Dodik interest is to ensure that state property in the RS is at his disposal. The RS is heavily indebted, to the tune of over $2 billion. A big slice of this amount, perhaps more than one-quarter, needs to be repaid or refinanced this year. State property is now the main collateral Dodik can pledge to creditors. Everything else is already hocked to the max. While the Finance Minister claims the debt is only 38% relative to GDP, RS officials are scrounging in Beijing for financing.
The US Embassy in Sarajevo has made its position on state property eminently clear:
“State property belongs to the state, and a state-level law is required to regulate it. This is not a matter of opinion; it is a constitutional and legal fact.”
Only saying it, however, won’t make it so.
Separating the court system could solve both problems for Dodik
These two interests, impunity and debt, are why Dodik, while pressing for independence, is trying first to block the Bosnian court system from the RS, whose Assembly passed the “Law on the Non-Enforcement of Decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina.” The international community High Representative has annulled that law, but it is unclear how he will enforce the annulment. Dodik will seek instead to force the HiRep into a negotiation on the state property issue. Once that happens, Dodik can hope for half a loaf.
That makes me wonder. Is refusing to negotiate and forcing the RS into bankruptcy a good idea? Won’t the debtor and the creditors cry for the Sarajevo, the central (in local terms the “state”) government, to intervene? The Chinese presumably won’t be interested in RS secession and would likely want central government intervention. The Russians, who are also creditors, might be interested in secession, but in current circumstances they would be unlikely to pick up the tab associated with bankruptcy. So why not let the RS go bankrupt and start the negotiation there?
I’ll welcome submissions to peacefare.net that argue the contrary case.
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Montenegro: north by northeast
Miodrag Vlahović, former Montengrin Minister of Foreign Affairs and former ambassador to US, is now president of the Montengrin Helsinki Committee. He writes:
Newly-elected President of Montenegro, Jakov Milatović, has chosen Belgrade for his first bilateral visit after assuming the office. This comes as no surprise.
Confirming the obvious
Milatović considers President Vučić’s Serbia as Montenegro’s principal and privileged partner. For Milatović, Serbia is “more than a neighbor.”
He even dared to explain recently to the Viennese Standard the similarities between Austrians and Germans, on one side, and Montenegrins and Serbs, on the other. This remark provoked comments that a certain Austrian national-socialist politician with similar ideas in 1930s and 1940s ended his life in the “Fuhrerbunker.”
Milatovic’s trip to Serbia will come on July 10. This raises the question whether he will attend the anniversary commemoration of Srebrenica Genocide the next day. That remains an undeniable “litmus-test” for any Montenegrin official.
Milatović intends to continue the policies that have characterized two governments in Montenegro after its August 2020 elections, which brought the opposition to power. He will mouth EU rhetoric and claim Euro-Atlantic orientation. But this is mere lip-service. Co-operation and more with Serbia is his real interest and objective.
EU slowdown
In the meantime, Brussels officials continue to issue direct warnings that Montenegro’s EU-agenda goes nowhere. The slow down and stagnation is turning into regression.
Technical Prime Minister Abazović and his allies – formal and informal – pay no attention to messages from EU Commission. Even worse: they ridicule the entire process. They ignore efforts of the EU member states to remind the Montenegrins that the EU doors are still open but that the EU cannot remain interested in accession if there is not even minimal willingness of Montenegro’s political leadership to engage.
In the latest among numerous scandals, Brussels decided no Montenegrin request for EU funds was serious enough for acceptance. This provoked a tragi-comic confusion in the ranks of technical government, as responsible officials were not even sure whether they have applied for funds!
The sudden death of Open Balkans
The Vučić-Rama “Open Balkans” project that some in Montenegro favored has come to sudden death with a simple statement of Albanian Prime Minsister Rama. He nonchalantly declared that “Open Balkans” has “fulfilled its role” and that the Berlin Process – favored by most EU countries and Germany specifically – is now the needed and desirable framework for regional co-operation.
This death notice has ruined President Milatović’s ambitions for his Belgrade trip. Without Albania, the regional initiative has left only Serbia and North Macedonia on board. With Open Balkans kaputt, the Belgrade talks betweem Serbian host and Montenegrin guest have lost any significance beyond Serbian domination over political and social processes in Montenegro.
The Belgrade and Moscow connection
That is still significant. Vučić controls a large chunk of Montenegrin politics. Milatović is his new principal ally, or, better, executer. Signs of that liaison are already present. It is reported that the President has strongly advocated participation of pro-Serbian/pro-Russian parties in the new Montenegrin government, likely to be formed under the leadership of the president of his own party (Europe Now).
The EU and QUINT ambassadors have shown no support for inclusion of anti-NATO and pro-Russian/Serbian forces in the new Cabinet. But Montenegro is now moving North (towards Serbia) and Northeast (towards Russia), instead of West. This will lengthen its already long journey to European institutions and European Union.
This mistaken path will continue until Montenegrin voters understand the difference between populist rhetoric and serious policies. That lesson may be unpleasant to learn. And the moment seems distant.
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Something to chew on while I vacation
I am going to try to take the next few days off in rural Wisconsin, but here are a few remarks I made to the Balkans press today:
Bosnia
Q: Dzeilana Pecanin of VoA asked about Srpska Assembly’s announcement that they do not recognize Bosnian Constitutional Court any longer or any of its decisions/laws.
A: The Americans and Europeans are saying the right things, but they aren’t doing anything against Dodik’s unconstitutional usurpation of authority. He is moving slice by slice towards de facto RS independence. That can’t be countered with words. Only actions at this point count. There are none.
Kosovo
Besnik Velija of Gazeta Express asked several questions about the ongoing situation in relations with the US, especially in light of the letter to the White House from 8 US senators, that asks for measures if there will be no de-escalation.
Q: Do you think that now in the US there is a broad, bipartisan opinion that Kosovo’s position is wrong and that the situation should be de-escalated?
A: Yes, I do think there is a consensus on de-escalation. Continuation of the current situation risks worse.
I do not however think that Belgrade and Pristina are equally responsible for the current situation. It originated in the Serb boycott of municipal elections and continued with violent demonstrations against the presence of Kosovo police on Kosovo territory as well as the kidnapping of Kosovo police on Kosovo territory.
Q: Is this an indicator that Kurti should reflect?
A: I’m sure the Prime Minister is aware of American concerns. I’m sure President Vucic is as well, but Washington and Brussels are not sending Belgrade the same strong messages they are sending to Pristina. That is a serious mistake.
Q: How do you see Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s frequent meetings with Brits? For two years he visited Great Britain 3 times and met two times with Foreign Secretary. Without depreciation of it as an alliance, but should Kurti focus more on the alliance with Washington and relations with Brussels, since Kosovo’s aspiration is EU membership?
A: I don’t mind his talking to the Brits. But he should also be thinking about repairing relations with the EU and US.
The Albanian gambit
Q: I want to get your comment also on the idea of Albanian PM Edi Rama for a High-Level conference, in which Kosovo and Serbia leaders will be closed in a meeting and they should not be allowed to get out without an agreement. Do you see it as possible and can it be helpful based on actual circumstances?
A: I might agree with Edi Rama that the problem lies at the top. But I don’t know anyone who could force them into a summit of that sort and keep them there. Besides, Vucic has made clear that it doesn’t matter what he agrees. He is prepared to denounce an agreement as soon as he leaves the meeting. Washington and Brussels don’t even complain when he does that.
I think it is clear there is no agreement right now on “normalization,” much less on mutual recognition. I’d like the top leaders to agree to go back to negotiating agreements on issues that make a difference to their peoples’ lives. Those negotiations before 2013 were far more successful (though some remain unimplemented) than the negotiations since 2013.
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So it fizzled. When will the next time come?
Yesterday’s insurrection and impending coup is today’s fizzle. Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to turn the Wagner troops around while he expatriates himself to Belarus. Ostensibly he and Putin reached an agreement, with Belarus’ President Lukashenko mediating, to avoid bloodshed. The Wagnerites get amnesty. Putin gets to stay in the Kremlin.
Question marks
I suppose it could be that simple. After all, if you are a Russian patriot, civil war is not appetizing. But there are still lots of question marks. Why did Prigozhin light the fuse? Why did he decide to abandon the effort? Did he fail to get support he thought would be forthcoming from others? Why did Russian forces not attack the Wagner column? What did Putin agree to do in exchange for the standdown?
Then there are the longer-term questions. Can Prigozhin really be safe in Minsk? Will this incident weaken Putin’s hold on power? If you are a Wagner fighter do you really believe there will be no retaliation? Are you willing to stick with an enterprise that apparently lost the contest? How will this incident affect the extensive Wagner operations in Africa and Syria? How do you feel if you are a Russian soldier on the front lines in Ukraine? What about ordinary Russian citizens? Does Chinese President Xi think Putin is a reliable partner?
Cracks are showing
Prigozhin for weeks has been complaining loudly about Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff Gerasimov. Prigozhin accuses them of incompetence, failure to supply Wagner’s forces, and even an attack on his men. Neither Shoigu nor Gerasimov has been seen for a few days. Putin appeared to come down hard on their side in the pissing match with Prigozhin, but it is also possible he has agreed to sack them, but we’ll have to wait and see.
In any event, the Wagner fizzle suggests Putin’s hold on power is not quite as tight as many imagine. Prigozhin can’t be the only discontent almost a year and a half into a war that has gained Russia little and cost a lot. The crackdown that is sure to follow the Wagner non-coup could widen the fissures in the ruling elite. But there is still little sign of popular willingness to challenge the Kremlin.
Keep the popcorn for next time
Some will worry that Putin falling could bring chaos to a nuclear-weapons state. Or put those weapons into the hands of someone like Prigozhin. Those are legimate concerns, but there is little the West can do about them. The US, UK, and Europe are bystanders who can do little more than keep up their support for Ukraine and hope that somehow Moscow decides to cut its losses and leave. In the meanwhile, it was a good show while it lasted. If you haven’t finished your popcorn, hold on to it. Next time might not be far off.
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Sit tight, unite, and prepare for opportunity in Russia
I missed the start last night, but Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group rebel forces are still moving toward Moscow from Rostov-on-Don today. They made it half way so far, to somewhere past Voronezh. That itself is amazing. Why hasn’t the Russian air force torn the Wagner column to pieces?
The outcome is uncertain
The outcome is however entirely uncertain. The insurrection could still fizzle. It could suffer catastrophic defeat. Wagner could become mired in a stalemate. Or it could succeed in chasing Putin from the Kremlin. Chechen forces are said to be getting ready to stop their progress toward Moscow. But those forces also have reason to be unhappy with Putin, so will they do the necessary for him?
Nor should we regard Prigozhin’s Wagner forces as heroes. They have fought, tortured, and robbed in Syria and several countries in Africa (Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Sudan). They participated in the Trump-encouraged hacking of the US presidential election in 2016. Prigozhin is no more of a democrat than Putin. Maybe less.
Insurrection could have consequences, even if it fails
But this insurrection, even if ultimately unsuccessful, will have consequences if it lasts more than a day or two. Putin’s hold on power will look tenuous. Russian troops in Ukraine, already demoralized, may hesitate to follow orders from a military command fighting Russians on the outskirts of Moscow. Some might even join the rebellion.
Ukraine’s army will be emboldened and press its counteroffensive harder. Distracted, the Russian army command could make serious mistakes, of either commission or omission. Fighting on two fronts is never easy, but if one is your home front it is likely to get priority.
Belarus could rise against President Lukashenko, who lacks electoral legitimacy. Constituent republics of the Russian Federation might do likewise. Russia might “rupture.” Moscow could find itself fighting not just with Prigozhin but also with half a dozen other rebellious forces.
Sit tight
The West (read the EU, UK, and US) have little direct say in this situation. Brussels, London, and Washington will want to be cautious, lest they give Russians cause to unite. They will also worry that Putin, his back to the wall and his life at risk, could take desperate measures, like use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine or even against his enemies inside Russia. Until now, that has seemed unlikely, but the man is frightened and may have few other cards to play.
China, India, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and other countries that Putin has courted may try to come to his rescue, mainly by providing markets for Russian oil. Except for China, their means are limited. Beijing is more likely to wait until it sees the outcome, which will necessarily be a weakened Russia more dependent on Chinese largesse.
Prepare
A Russia without Putin would be an opportunity for the West. If the rebellion succeeds, a united Western front in dealing with Prigozhin will be vital. He is no more principled than Putin. Steering a post-Putin Russia towards complete withdrawal from Ukraine and encouaging emergence of something resembling democracy there will be a major diplomatic challenge. Now is the time to prepare for it.
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