Tag: European Union
Sit tight, unite, and prepare for opportunity in Russia
I missed the start last night, but Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group rebel forces are still moving toward Moscow from Rostov-on-Don today. They made it half way so far, to somewhere past Voronezh. That itself is amazing. Why hasn’t the Russian air force torn the Wagner column to pieces?
The outcome is uncertain
The outcome is however entirely uncertain. The insurrection could still fizzle. It could suffer catastrophic defeat. Wagner could become mired in a stalemate. Or it could succeed in chasing Putin from the Kremlin. Chechen forces are said to be getting ready to stop their progress toward Moscow. But those forces also have reason to be unhappy with Putin, so will they do the necessary for him?
Nor should we regard Prigozhin’s Wagner forces as heroes. They have fought, tortured, and robbed in Syria and several countries in Africa (Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and Sudan). They participated in the Trump-encouraged hacking of the US presidential election in 2016. Prigozhin is no more of a democrat than Putin. Maybe less.
Insurrection could have consequences, even if it fails
But this insurrection, even if ultimately unsuccessful, will have consequences if it lasts more than a day or two. Putin’s hold on power will look tenuous. Russian troops in Ukraine, already demoralized, may hesitate to follow orders from a military command fighting Russians on the outskirts of Moscow. Some might even join the rebellion.
Ukraine’s army will be emboldened and press its counteroffensive harder. Distracted, the Russian army command could make serious mistakes, of either commission or omission. Fighting on two fronts is never easy, but if one is your home front it is likely to get priority.
Belarus could rise against President Lukashenko, who lacks electoral legitimacy. Constituent republics of the Russian Federation might do likewise. Russia might “rupture.” Moscow could find itself fighting not just with Prigozhin but also with half a dozen other rebellious forces.
Sit tight
The West (read the EU, UK, and US) have little direct say in this situation. Brussels, London, and Washington will want to be cautious, lest they give Russians cause to unite. They will also worry that Putin, his back to the wall and his life at risk, could take desperate measures, like use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine or even against his enemies inside Russia. Until now, that has seemed unlikely, but the man is frightened and may have few other cards to play.
China, India, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, and other countries that Putin has courted may try to come to his rescue, mainly by providing markets for Russian oil. Except for China, their means are limited. Beijing is more likely to wait until it sees the outcome, which will necessarily be a weakened Russia more dependent on Chinese largesse.
Prepare
A Russia without Putin would be an opportunity for the West. If the rebellion succeeds, a united Western front in dealing with Prigozhin will be vital. He is no more principled than Putin. Steering a post-Putin Russia towards complete withdrawal from Ukraine and encouaging emergence of something resembling democracy there will be a major diplomatic challenge. Now is the time to prepare for it.
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Back to the future with the past in mind
This post will be “inside baseball,” so those who don’t care about the Balkans or are tired of talking about the region’s problems are hereby forewarned.
In addition to the current brouhaha over where the mayors of four northern Kosovo municipalities should sit, Washington and Brussels are pressing Pristina hard to start negotiation with Belgrade on proposed Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASMM). The Americans and Europeans point to the 2013 Brussels agreement that introduced this innovation. They insist it is a legal obligation and want Pristina to prioritize it.
No unilateral commitment
Memories are short in the US and EU. They should go back and read the 2013 agreement. It involved a quid pro quo, not a unilateral commitment. It obliges Kosovo to create an ASMM, in exchange for the extension of Kosovo’s constitutional order, in particular its judicial system and police, to northern Kosovo, where three Serb-majority municipalites lie.
The fourth and most substantial one, Mitrovica, is Serb-majority now, but only because the Serbs have prevented Albanians and others from returning to their homes north of the Ibar River since 1999. Any serious extension of the Kosovo constitutional order to the north would allow all the displaced people to return to their homes.
The Kosovo parliament approved the 2013 agreement and Serbia’s did not. That undermines the argument that it is morally binding on Pristina. I’m no lawyer, so let’s assume it is legally, even if not morally, binding. Where do we stand on extension of the Kosovo constitutional order to the north?
The quid pro quo isn’t working
Nowhere is the right answer. Serbia has maintained its control of the four northern municipalities. It uses a combination of clandestine security forces and cooperating criminal organizations. It refused to accept Kosovo’s decision to insist on Kosovo license plates in the north. That was after the expiration of an agreement that temporarily allowed Serbian license plates. Belgrade instructed the Serb police and judges to leave Kosovo’s institutions.
The Serbs of the north boycotted the recent municipal elections on orders from President Vucic, which his minions enforced with intimidation. The few citizens who turned out elected the non-Serb mayors. Rent-a-mob rioters have prevented three of them from entering the offices Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti insists they should occupy.
This reminds me of Kosovo during the period of Serbian rule in the 1990s. Then Albanians boycotted elections, but they also accepted the consequences, which were severe. Serbia appointed Serb mayors for Albanian-majority communities and ejected Albanians from their jobs in the supposedly autonomous province. The Albanians ran their own unofficial school and health systems for almost 10 years.
The chicken and egg
There is as usual a chicken and egg problem. You can ask who started the downward spiral, but you’ll never get an agreed answer. All that really counts is that things are bad and getting worse.
Serbia mobilized its army and deployed it closer to the boundary/border, a military threat that violates the February agreement on normalization of relations.
Serbian police have detained three Kosovo policemen, claiming they were on Serbian territory but providing no evidence. Belgrade has refused thus far to release them, despite a KFOR request. Even if they did wander into Serbia, which is possible but unlikely, why would Belgrade not repatriate them as speedily as possible? Or were they snatched from Kosovo territory, like the American Albanian Bytyqi brothers Serbian police murdered after the 1999 war?
One sided diplomacy won’t work
The EU and US are making things worse. The American ambassador in Belgrade declared Kurti not a partner, while praising President Vucic just a few days after his agents had attacked NATO troops in the north. Even the State Department thought this strange. Deputy Assistant Secretary Gabe Escobar corrected the bizarre statement. NATO maintained its commitment to a military exercise with Serbia while canceling one with Kosovo.
The Europeans are fond of citing the 16 member states that have arrangements like the ASMM for numerical minorities. But in each and every one of those cases the neighboring country recognizes the hosting state. If Serbia were to recognize Kosovo, the ASMM would surely be less threatening to Pristina.
The EU has been sending detailed unilateral demands telling Prime Minister Kurti he has to withdraw his police from a territory they are entitled to be present in. Even if you think he made a mistake to try to install the mayors in the municipal buildings, you might want to show some understanding for his view that the Kosovo state has an obligation to enforce the rule of law as provided for in the 2013 agreement you are citing, or appreciation for his willingness to hold new elections in the north provided the Serbs will participate.
Back to the future
The 2013 Pristina/Belgrade agreement has real virtues in 2023. But they are not limited to the ASMM. The US and EU need to remember all its provisions, not just the ones that suit Belgrade.
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Stevenson’s army, June 21
-D Brief explains Somali requests for US military help
– EU considers a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine
– Congress may not save the A10s
– Democrats criticize GOP cuts in international spending
-Modi discusses relations with US
– WSJ reports Chinese tech workers in Cuba
– WaPo has its story on US-Iranian talks
– NYT hits Senate for nomination delays
-Axios notes loww congressional productivity because of messaging bills
– Media hit for paying more attention to Titanic tourists than dying migrants.
– Noah Smith raises doubts about Chinese economic strength.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Road to nowhere in Montenegro
Miodrag Vlahović, former Montengrin Minister of Foreign Affairs and former ambassador to US, is now president of the Montengrin Helsinki Committee. He writes:
Early parliamentary elections in Montenegro attracted the lowest turnout ever (56%). They have not brought major surprises. The populist movement “Europe Now!” gained seats in parliament, as expected. It won only a thin majority (24 MPs to 21) over the “Together” coalition led by former President Djukanović’s DPS. That creates additional uncertainities and confusion in an already compromised and disrupted political situation.
Government formation faces challenges
One thing seems clear: no coalition is possible between the two largest parliamentary groups. Milojko Spajić will almost certainly be given the mandate to form the the next government. He excludes any possibility of forming a cabinet with DPS.
Spajić also rejects a coalition with incumbent “technical” Prime Minister Abazović’s URA Movement, which won 12.5% and 11 seats (together with “Democratic Montenegro”). The bitter feud between the two is based on still unproven accusations of illegal election funding by a South Korean crypto-currency trader, now under investigation. The outcome of that proceeding may be harmful both for Spajić and Abazović. It has already become an important – if not the most important – feature of post-election Montenegro.
The pro-Serbian, pro-Russian For the Future of Montenegro coalition won 14.7% and 13, which puts them in a vital position despite a big decline from the previous election.
The country is not in good shape
Parliamentary elections in August 2020 expelled DPS from the majority. Despite much pro-EU rhetoric, the results since have been poor. Two annual EU Commission reports on Montenegrin progress have shown regression, despite EU Commissioner for Enlargement Varhelyi’s effort to support the populists who took power. In the meantime, the two anti-DPS governments have caused dissaray in all segments of social, economic, and political life, with clear signs of influence coming from Belgrade and Moscow.
The last barrier against collapse remains Montenegro’s NATO membership. Even that was significantly compromised by intentional disruption of important activities of Agency for National Security against the Serbian/Russian spy network in the country. Abazović has overseen constant, debilitating purges there.
Spajić promotes a wishful thinking economic program, “Europe Now 2.0.” But even he acknowledges the country is on the brink of financial implosion. “No salaries for public servants after September,” he has stated bluntly. But that has not prevented him from promising increases in salaries and pensions while announcing elimination of the state Pension Fund! Those voters who supported Spajić as well as two other coalitions close to Serbian President Vučić ignore the risk of economic crisis. They count on promises of miraculous progress by a new government empowered soon.
They may find themselves utterly surprised. Neither Spajić nor Jakov Milatović, the vice-president of “Europe Now!” and newly elected President, can guarantee political harmony even within their own political ranks. Milatović remains close not only to Serbian President Vučić, but also to Abazović. That complicates Spajić’sposition.
The internationals
The Western diplomatic community in Podgorica prefers stability underwritten by a stable qualified majority in the Parliament. They ignore the perils of participation by pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties, despite their anti-NATO and de facto anti-EU standings. The problem will be how to include the ethnic minority parties (Bosniak, Albanian, and Croatian) in the new government. Western diplomats may intend to politely order them to join.
Both Abazović and Milatović, together with other leaders of the projected majority, support the Serbian proposal for “Open Balkans,” which the US backs. Spajić is unlike to oppose it if he wants to become prime minister.
So, the proverb has been confirmed: “once you enter the wrong train – all the stations are the wrong ones.” Montenegro entered the wrong train in August 2020. Insisting on continuing the journey does not ensure but rather endangers Montenegrin political stability and economic viability. It is a destructive and detrimental project. The next station may have the name “Grave Consequences.” The names of other “stations” would not be good even to mention here…
The return from the road to nowhere will be long and painful. The later it comes, the worse it will be.
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Fewer sticks, more carrots
Distinguished members of the Albanian American community have sent a stern letter to Secretary of State Blinken. It criticizes the Biden Administration’s one-sided approach to current disputes between Kosovo and Serbia. The US (and EU) have generally sided with Belgrade. They have also threatened Pristina with sanctions if it doesn’t quickly comply with Washington and Brussels demands.
A justified protest…
The protest letter is in my view fully justified. Serbia is aiming to demonstrate and maintain control over the Serb-majority communities in northern Kosovo. This was its goal in over-reacting to Kosovo’s effort to insist on Kosovo license plates in the north. It was the goal in instructing northern Kosovo officials to resign their positions. And it was the goal in getting the Serb population to boycott the elections called to replace them. It is also Belgrade’s goal in pursuing, with strong EU and US support, an Association of Serb Majority Municipalities (ASMM) with executive powers.
Washington and Brussels have backed Serbia hoping to get Belgrade to reorient itself towards the West and away from Moscow. Belgrade’s allowing shipment of arms to Ukraine has reinforced this hope. But there is no sign that President Vucic is prepared to weaken his ties to Moscow and Beijing. To the contrary, he has continued to refuse to align with EU sanctions on Russia (and with many other aspects of EU foreign policy). He maintains an open door for military cooperation with Russia as well as Chinese security technology and investment.
…but more is needed
Kosovo is a sincere friend of the US and EU, not only because of the 1999 NATO intervention that saved its population from ethnic cleansing and war crimes but also because it is a serious democracy. Pristina has no option to turn to Russia or China. Prime Minister Kurti has refused EU and US demands he believes would limit the country’s sovereignty and threaten its territorial integrity. But he needs Western support for Kosovo to survive and thrive.
He also needs greater acceptance by the Serbs in northern Kosovo. He has been relatively successful, building on accomplishments of his predecessors, in getting acceptance by the Serbs who live south of the Ibar river. But in the north, which is contiguous with Serbia, Belgrade’s security services and their allied organized crime networks still prevail. Kurti has been trying to break their control by enforcing Kosovo law in the north, but so far his efforts do not appear to have succeeded.
Fewer sticks, more carrots
The US and EU are threatening sanctions against Kosovo. Kurti is using the police to try to seat mayors elected despite a Serb boycott. These sticks are working. They appear to have stiffened resistance.
Kurti, the US, and the EU should all try a few more carrots.
The Prime Minister needs to show the Serbs in northern Kosovo what they can gain either by allowing the mayors to take their rightful places or by holding new elections. He should propose a statute for the ASM, without executive powers. The US and EU need to show Kurti what he can gain by beginning negotiations on the ASMM. I imagine, for example, that a sincere apology for the Milosevic regime’s homicidal repression in the 1990s and an offer to negotiate compensation, especially for the women raped by Serbian security forces, would go a long way.
Less appeasement
Brussels and Washington have used only carrots with Belgrade. They incongruously praise him as someone who has turned Serbia westward. They avoid any criticism of high-level corruption and autocratic behavior in Serbia. The US only whispers opposition to his mobilization and deployment of the Serbian army on the border with Kosovo, resorts to inappropriately citing “both sides” in criticizing Serb rioters against KFOR troops, and provides ample political and economic support. Vucic pockets the carrots and continues his courtships with Moscow and Beijing. It is high time for appeasement to end.
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End threats to use military force!
Genc Pollo, former minister and member of parliament in Albania, writes from Tirana:
For the third time in the last two years Serbia last week put her armed forces on alert and has deployed them to the border with Kosovo. Apart from infantry and armor, fighter jets have been flying along Kosovo’s airspace.
Belgrade the arsonist
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has verbosely explained on each occasion that his military was ready to intervene in neighboring Kosovo to prevent the suffering of the Serbian community there. In the first two instances, the Kosovo authorities were attempting to get Kosovo Serbs in the north to use Kosovo plates rather than Serbian ones.
In the third and current instance, the Kosovo police were escorting four newly elected mayors into their offices. The Serb majority in the northern municipalities had boycotted the mayoral elections so the elected mayors had a different ethnic background. Furthermore the election was caused by the resignations of the incumbent mayors last December. Both the resignations and the election boycott happened at the behest of Belgrade.
The real problem is the threat to use military force
Such local crises are not a threat to Serbia. Nor are they a violation of Serb rights that should elicit a such a military response by Kosovo’s northern neighbor. The real problem is that the Serbian President threatens his smaller neighbor with the use of military force.
The 1945 UN Charter signatories vowed to “suppress aggression” and to “refrain…from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state”. Stronger and more detailed language permeates the OSCE agreements of which Serbia is also a party.
The EU and US make it worse
Perhaps the most alarming development isn’t Vucic’s bravado but the Western response to it. The EU and the US, who are facilitating a “normalization process” between the two Balkan states, have not condemned in clear terms this breach of international law. Instead they have spoken softly of concern while simultaneously chastising Kosovo for the deployment of her police force on her own territory. According to press reports, US and European officials have quietly asked Vucic to withdraw his units.
Some are tempted to say that Serbia is merely gesticulating for domestic consumption. Belgrade knows it cannot match KFOR, the NATO-led troops stationed in Kosovo. That might be true. But this didn’t hinder Belgrade from instigating riot in northern Kosovo to violently attack deployed KFOR units, including with firearms. Dozens of hospitalized soldiers, some in critical condition, were the consequence. NATO had to send in reinforcements.
End appeasement
History teaches us that many past wars were deemed impossible until they broke out, in some cases unintentionally.
It would be in the West’s best interest to end appeasement of the would-be aggressor and to ensure that the threat of using military force is unacceptable, especially by states claiming to want to join the European Union.
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