Tag: European Union
Even good resolutions don’t suffice
The Libya Security Council resolution no. 1973 that passed this evening looks very good to me, though I confess I failed to notice that the arms embargo applied to the rebels when the last one passed (and I don’t think this one fixes that problem). I guess the Egyptians are fixing it. I would also note that a cease-fire in place really favors Gaddafi’s forces, but I have my doubts it will take effect any time soon.
The important thing is that this resolution authorizes all necessary means, short of an occupation, to protect civilians. It also tightens the arms embargo as well as the financial and other sanctions. It passed, with five abstentions, including China, Russia, Brazil, India and Germany. That is a remarkable achievement, and my hat is off to US Permanent Representative Ambassador Susan Rice.
The key thing now is implementation. The Srebrenica UNSC resolution (no. 819 of 1993) looked pretty good to a lot of people too, and its purpose was remarkably similar to this one: to protect civilians from murderous thugs. But Colum Lynch listed it last year as among the 10 worse UN Security Council resolutions ever.
The difference, if there is to be one, has to come from implementation. The problem with the resolution declaring Srebrenica a “safe area” was not the objective–it was the lack of ways and means to achieve the objective. When the U.S. did eventually seek to protect the UN safe areas in Bosnia by bombing the Serb forces in response to an attack on Sarajevo, it quickly shifted the tide of war and led to a very rapid advance by the Croat and Bosniak forces.
Precious little has been said so far about implementation of no. 1973. There are rumors the French will begin acting tonight, but there are also rumors that NATO is not yet ready. Some Arab countries are said to be willing to participate in military action, but that is not confirmed. It is not clear whether the U.S. will participate, or whether it will do so in stand-off fashion with cruise missiles and the like.
So the Benghazis do well to celebrate, but this fight isn’t over yet, and its outcome is still very much in doubt.
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Bad gets worse
Think things couldn’t get worse? Think again:
- One or more of Japan’s nuclear plants now looks sure to melt down, with at least one breaching the reactor containment vessel and spewing radioactive material. How much attention do we think Arab revolutions will get after that happens?
- Gaddafi’s forces are at the outskirts of Benghazi. We can hope that the rebels will succeed in cutting his now long supply lines, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
- The crackdown has gotten brutal in Bahrain, with the Saudi and UAE forces seeming to remain in the background guarding the royals while the King’s forces enforce martial law with tanks and machine guns.
- Yemen is at least as bad, with firing on demonstrators and no sign of serious negotiations yet.
Yes, they are still discussing a no fly zone at the Security Council, thus preventing anything else meaningful from getting through that august body.
Also notable: the European Union, freshly equipped with reforms that were supposed to unify its foreign policy, has rarely sounded less coherent or less effective: UK and France want a no fly zone, Germany doesn’t and Italy does and doesn’t.
Nor are the Americans sounding much more coherent and effective. Still in listening mode, which means not ready to do anything.
Don’t forget: Egypt votes on constitutional amendments Saturday. If they approve, a good deal of the old regime can hope to survive; if they don’t, things will again be up in the air. I might vote for up in the air, but I don’t live in Cairo.
I know you all prefer it when I post those funny videos, but this morning is hard to take lightly. I’ll look for some this afternoon.
PS: I should have mentioned it earlier but forgot: one of the consequences of Saudi/UAE intervention in Bahrain is a sharp rise in sectarian tensions, reflected in statements by Iraq’s Prime Minister Maliki and Grand Ayatollah Sistani but also felt in Iran. That does not bode well.
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Cheerier news
Here is video of a demonstration today in Damascus. It cheered me up a bit:
I spent August 2008 in Damascus studying Arabic at the university. No political activity back then, but the discontent of the general population was easy to find. You just needed to talk to someone. They were not prepared to express unhappiness with the President but enjoyed telling even a foreigner how much they disliked the people around him. They also wanted peace with Israel, better relations with the U.S. and a lot of foreign investment, all of which they viewed as part of a necessary, maybe regrettable, package.
And here is French philosopher Henri Bernard Levy with a strikingly graphic metaphor for the relationship between European governments and dictators in the Middle East. Best not to play this one while the boss is around:
It is going to be hard to beat that for political comment of the day.
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Doom and gloom
A world that was looking hopeful two weeks ago has taken a sharp turn southwards:
- The earthquake in Japan has not only caused upwards of 10,000 deaths and untold destruction, it has also put in doubt nuclear programs worldwide, not to mention what the prospect of further radiation leaks will do to stock markets today and the economic recovery in the future.
- Counter revolution is on the march in Libya, Bahrain and Yemen–in all three countries repression is winning the day, with the help of hesitation in Europe and the U.S. and Saudi and UAE security forces in Manama.
- Egypt votes in a constitutional referendum Saturday to either approve amendments prepared behind closed doors that would leave its regime largely intact, or disapprove, sending the country into uncertainty once again.
- Violence in Sudan is rising, with local south/south conflicts and tension in Abyei overshadowed for the moment by the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement claim that the north is planning a coup intended to prevent independence in July.
- Iran is succeeding in repressing its Green Movement opposition and in neutering anyone else who might dare to challenge President Ahmedinejad.
- Kurdish and Arab leaders in Iraq are competing to see who can claim Kirkuk is their Jerusalem most convincingly, while their respective military forces face off in the contested town.
It is telling that today’s testimony in Congress by General Petraeus on the situation in Afghanistan, which is expected to be relatively upbeat, is the only good news, though experienced wags will see it as just the latest in a long string of turning points in a war that has never turned.
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Counter revolution advances, not only in Libya
With the U.S. and Europe hesitating to take action against Gaddafi, the counter-revolution is in full swing, not only in Libya. The Saudis have prevented any sizable demonstrations and have sent military forces into Bahrain to reinforce its effort to repress the demonstrations, which yesterday focused on Manama’s financial district. In Yemen, seven were killed over the weekend and many more injured as the government used deadly force against university demonstrators. Demonstrators and local doctors are also claiming that some sort of illegal poison gas was used:
In Libya, Gaddafi’s forces have taken Brega and are headed east towards Benghazi. The once hopeful rebellion appears headed for defeat, if not oblivion. The past several days of inaction have had serious consequences, as Tripoli has used its unchallenged air force and superior fire power to force the rebels out of several key positions. Libyan forces are now approaching Adjabiya. Their long supply lines now represent the last, best hope of the rebellion to prevent the fall of Benghazi.
Will these reversals encourage conservative forces in Tunisia and Egypt to hold on to what positions they can, or even strike back to counter changes already in progress? Are the reversals temporary setbacks, or are we witnessing the end of the (early) Arab spring? Will the protesters find ways of reviving their efforts? Will the regimes turn their backs on protester aspirations or look for ways to offer more meaningful reforms? Lots of questions, few answers.
PS: Little did I know when I wrote this that Jackson Diehl had already asked similar questions, with a somewhat more pessimistic spin, in this morning’s Washington Post.
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Time to make history
President Obama yesterday declared Gaddafi to be “on the wrong side of history.” By this he presumably means that in the long-term Gaddafi is finished. The trouble is it does not look as if the Colonel is finished anytime soon. History can be a long time in the future.
Things are moving, slowly. The Arab League is meeting today to discuss a no-fly zone over Libya. The head of the Libyan Interim National Transitional Council, who now has the honor of a substantial price on his head offered by Gaddafi, has called for a sea blockade as well. The Americans, belatedly in my view, have announced that they will establish liaison with the Council. The president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy, made a strong statement calling for Gaddafi to step down but did not call explicitly for a no-fly zone and in fact offered no indication of concrete steps the EU is taking to force Gaddafi out. NATO is reportedly studying military options. But the African Union has issued a fence-sitting declaration that excludes military intervention.
Gaddafi has said he will turn Libya into another Vietnam. In a perverse sense, he has already done that, with his forces playing the unfortunate role of the Americans in Vietnam. But the Americans held on for a long time in Vietnam, and Gaddafi may do likewise in Libya. He knows, as does Washington, that no one is even thinking about putting American boots on the ground. The Iraq/Afghanistan Syndrome is much in evidence, with Defense Secretary Gates making it clear he does not want to take military action against Gaddafi.
The issue now is how to keep the rebellion alive while we all deliberate. Humanitarian assistance to the rebel-held areas is becoming urgent, as supplies there are dwindling. A shift in the military balance is also important. Gaddafi’s forces have taken Zawiya in the west and likely also Ras Lanuf towards the east. Superior fire power and organization are giving Tripoli important advantages. We can all hope that the Libyans will handle this situation on their own, or that the Arab League or EU will rescue the rebellion.
But in our heart of hearts, we know that international leadership lies with the Americans. When did Europe or the Arab League ever take decisive action? Everyone is waiting for President Obama to make history in the present, without waiting for it to happen in the future. He has a lot of options. The time has come to choose the ones he wants to pursue.
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