Tag: Foreign Policy
Trump’s cabinet of horrors
What wasn’t clear yesterday is today. Donald Trump’s national security and foreign policy appointments will be more like his extremist immigration nominees than like yesterday’s headliners. Marco Rubio at State and Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor are the only arguably sane appointments. They are the adults in the room, which means they won’t last. The others are right-wing crackpots. They’ll be around for four years.
The intel community
Intelligence gets the worst of it. The highly partisan John Ratcliffe as CIA director was a preview, not an anomaly. Tulsi Gabbard will become Director of National Intelligence, overseeing the (is it still 17?) intelligence agencies. Once a Democratic member of Congress, she is now a born again Trump Republican and Putin apologist. She is flaky and capricious.
It is difficult to picture either of these people telling Trump something he doesn’t want to hear. Which is what intel chiefs often need to do.
Diplomacy
In addition to Rubio, diplomacy gets Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador. A member of Congress from New York State, she is an avowed opponent of the UN. She will strongly oppose continued assistance to Palestinians.
Evangelical pro-Israel enthusiast Mike Huckabee will serve as ambassador in Jerusalem. A former Governor of Arkansas, he will provide strong support to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. He will also encourage those in Netanyahu’s coalition who want to annex the West Bank and Gaza.
Homeland Security
Kristi Noem, Governor of North Dakota who proudly shot a dog and a goat she “hated,” will run this mega-department. You can read about some of her other “batshit” moments here. She is a Trump enthusiast of course.
Defense
Pete Hegseth, a National Guard major, gets the Defense Department. The blatantly unqualified Fox News talking head opposes women and LGBTQ people in the military. He sports Christian tattoos, including “Deus vult” (God wills it). That is pretty much the equivalent of “insha’allah,” an expression Arabs use many times per day. But unlike the Arabic phrase, which everyone uses, the Latin one is used mainly by right-wing extremists, including neo-Nazis. Trump has charged Hegseth with getting rid of any generals who have promoted diversity, equity and inclusion.
SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson says Trump has declared war on the Pentagon.
Attorney General
Republican Congress Member Matt Gaetz will head the Department of Justice. The list of ethics charges against him is long. He will not just kill any cases the Justice Department is pursuing against Trump. He will also protect other Trumpkins while pursuing charges against Democrats.
What is this?
This is a cabinet of horrors. Its distinguishing characteristics are unquestioning loyalty to Donald Trump, right-wing devotion, and profound lack of experience and competence. What could go wrong?
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Immigration is clear, national security not
Trump’s appointments so far merit a first look. What do they suggest about the direction of the next Administration?
Deportation is for real
The appointments of Steven Miller as deputy chief of staff, Tom Homan as “border czar” (a White House appointment?), and Kristi Noem as Homeland Security Secretary send a clear message. They suggest that Trump is doubling down on deportation of undocumented immigrants. He proposes to start with those who have criminal convictions, in the US or abroad. But is a small percentage of the targeted population. Any convicted in the US are deported upon release. US Border Patrol has arrested about 17000 “criminal noncitizens” so far this year.
Focus on immigrant criminals was an election-year gimmick. Trump is really after the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US who are not criminals. He wants to use the US Army to support that effort, which is estimated to cost more than $300 billion. Crime rates in this undocumented immigrant population are lower than among American-born citizens.
The disruption to the US economy, especially in some of the areas that voted most heavily for Trump, is likely. Especially if Homan follows through on threats to conduct workplace raids and deport whole families, massive economic damage will ensue.
Foreign policy is unclear
The signals on foreign policy are less clear. The named National Security Advisor, Michael Waltz, is a former Green Beret and China hawk. He is called a Ukraine skeptic, but that is vague. Would he advise against continued assistance to Ukraine in current circumstances? Or would he want it augmented to ensure a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms?
The nominee for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is similarly ambiguous. He favors a negotiated end to the war that maintains Ukrainian sovereignty. It is not clear what that means, though the Kyiv Post assumes it means concession of some territory to Russia in exchange for peace. Rubio is also an Iran hawk who favored the disastrous 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. That diplomatic malpractice resulted in Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state today.
The alternatives to Waltz and Rubio, even though both have become Trump sycophants, could have been worse. Former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is a nut job. Ric Grenell, a former Trump ambassador in Berlin and momentarily Director of National Intelligence, is a grifting dimwit. Grenell may still be in the running for a high position at State or elsewhere, so no one should assume yet that he is out of the running completely. He never had the stature to be Secretary of State, but that would not have prevented Trump from nominating him. He has strong business ties to Jared Kushner. That could be his trump card.
Defense: even more unclear
Trump hasn’t named a Secretary of Defense yet.* If it is to be Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, fans in Kosovo will cheer. The Kosovo Security Force collaboration with the Iowa National Guard has been consistently fruitful. It has also spun off academic, government, and commercial cooperation.
But there are lots of other candidates according to Fox News, including Grenell. Whoever gets the job will face enormous challenges. Defense of US interests abroad requires that Washington remain committed to NATO and other alliances in the Pacific. Trump has continued to be more critical of allies than of Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin has denied Trump urged the Russian President to show restraint in Ukraine. That could suggest the beginning of some strain between Trump and Putin, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
A bit better than last time around, but not for Gaza and Lebanon
Trump’s appointments so far have all been loyalists, to him personally and to election denial. But they are also people who are arguably more suitable than some of his previous choices. He is getting through the process quickly and cleanly. There are lots of rumors, but little hesitation or confusion. Trump chief of staff Wiles is doing her job well.
In late breaking news, former Arkansas Governor Huckabee will be ambassador to Israel. That confirms what sensible people knew. Trump will back Netanyahu 100%. Not because of the Jews, who voted overwhelmingly for Harris, but because of the Christian Evangelicals. The wars in Gaza and Lebanon will end only when Netanyahu wants them to. Trump will back Netanyahu even more than Biden did.
*After I published this, Trump announced a Fox News talking head, Pete Hegseth, as his pick for Defense. I know nothing about him but what I read on Wikipedia. I respect his military service, but he hardly seems even close to the qualifications required of a Defense Secretary. And lobbying for pardons for convicted war criminals is disqualifying. He is certainly far below Joni Ernst in stature. Trump’s nominee to head the CIA, is John Ratcliffe. He had trouble winning Senate confirmation as Director of National Intelligence in the first Trump administration. Ratcliffe is notable for his lack of professional intelligence qualifications and partisan posturing.
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Hopeful v hopeless: guess who won
Last night’s presidential debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris conformed to expectations. An ill-tempered Trump lied, rambled, and indulged in conspiracy theories. A smiling and bemused Harris projected herself as an agent of change and optimism. She was amiable and hopeful. He was threatening and hopeless. That’s what really counts.
Policy doesn’t count, but it is still worth considering
The economy: advantage Harris
On the economy, Trump promises little more than steep tariffs on everything, which a president can impose without Congressional approval, and extension of the tax cuts passed in 2017 for the (very) rich. Neither proposition should be attractive to 90% of Americans. He continues to insist that other countries will pay the tariffs, but they will also raise prices whenever they can to recoup whatever they pay. In addition, they will retaliate against US exports. So MAGA means higher prices and loss of market share abroad. Little to celebrate there.
Harris is flogging tax breaks for small business, families, and home construction. Not all of what she proposes makes good sense, and she has not said how she will pay for them. But her proposals respond to what most Americans are concerned about. All of what she wants would have to pass in Congress, which means there is at least a chance to get it right. Even if the Democrats were to gain control of both Houses, it would be difficult to hold together their majorities for proposals that don’t make sense.
Immigration: advantage Harris
This is Trump’s strong suit, but he played his hand poorly. He repeatedly claimed that immigrants are increasing the crime rate in the US. He even claimed that crime is down in Venezuela and other countries because all the criminals are being sent to the US. Harris didn’t respond forcefully on these points. I suppose she was wary of championing immigration. But crime is down in the US and it is not down in Venezuela and other migrant-exporting countries.
Harris hit a solid note with her response. She rightfully claimed Trump had blocked a bipartisan immigration bill that would have sharply increased the number of agents on the border. She did not say what a lot of us know: America needs immigrants. The labor market is tight and immigrants are prolific entrepreneurs who found a large number of new, small companies.
Foreign policy: advantage Harris
Trump was at pains to claim that he got NATO countries to ante up and that the world loves him. But America’s allies have been increasing military expenditures at least as fast under Biden. Trump repeated his claim that he would end the Ukraine war by negotiation before he even took office. The only way he could do that is by signaling lack of support for Ukraine. Trump was only able to cite Hungary’s would-be dictator, Viktor Orban, as a leader who appreciates him. Of course Putin, Xi, and Kim are also in that camp, but they are even less to Trump’s credit.
Harris cited Trump’s love affairs with those miscreants, as well as with the Taliban, as evidence of his failure to align the US with its democratic friends and allies. Even more important is that he failed to get anything worthwhile from his dreadful friends. Harris was effective in parrying Trump’s criticism of the Afghanistan withdrawal, which he had negotiated before Biden won the 2020 election.
Next
I expect the polls to show a visible jump for Harris in the next couple of weeks. She demonstrated at the debate a demeanor, temperament, and acuity that contrasted sharply with Trump’s. He looked and played the part of a tired incumbent. His ideas, insofar as he had any, were stale. Taylor Swift got it right. Kamala Harris will be the next President. That will give the Republicans time to end their romance with a crooked flim-flam man.
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Step aside, please
I signed on yesterday to this appeal to President Biden to step aside with colleagues from the national security/foreign policy community:
Dear Mr. President:
We write as former U.S. officials who have strongly supported your presidency and your
initiatives to strengthen U.S. foreign and national security policy. We have welcomed the
measures you have taken to promote U.S. alliances in Europe, Asia, and the Americas; to
manage relations with great powers; and to address global issues such as climate change. These
initiatives have been built on your decades-long record of support for responsible U.S.
international engagement.
We also strongly endorse your urgent call for civility in the public debate, the critical importance
of which was underscored by the recent assassination attempt on former President Trump and the
tragic loss of life in Butler, Pennsylvania. Reasoned debate is essential to America’s democracy
and global leadership, which you have long championed.
With the deepest appreciation for your many decades of inspired leadership, we strongly believe
that ongoing concerns surrounding your continued candidacy and the growing likelihood of an
electoral college victory for Donald Trump put your national security accomplishments – and our
country and your legacy – at an unacceptable level of risk. Donald Trump’s vision, approach,
and expressed intentions concerning our nation’s security are in fundamental conflict with the
values and principles for which you have stood. We also are keenly aware of the comments you
made in March 2020, in which you indicated that you viewed yourself as “a bridge” to “an entire
generation of leaders” who represent the country’s future.
We strongly believe that now is the time to pass the mantle of leadership, and we respectfully
urge you to do so.
With deepest appreciation,
Gordan Adams
Former Associate Director for National Security Programs, Office of Management and Budget,
1993-1998
J. Brian Atwood
Former Under Secretary of State, former Administrator, USAID
Rick Barton
Former Assistant Secretary of State
James Keough Bishop
U.S Ambassador (Ret)
Robert Boorstin
Former NSC Senior Director
Ralph L. Boyce, Jr.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia (2001-2004) and Thailand (2004-2008)
Peter Bradford
Former Commissioner, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Kenneth Brill
Former U.S. Ambassador
Rosa Brooks
Former Counselor to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy
Scott Busby
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and former Director, National Security Council staff
Piper Campbell
Former U.S. Ambassador
Wendy J. Chamberlin
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Richard Christenson
Former Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassies in South Korea and Japan
Richard A Clarke
Former National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism
Steven Coffey
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights, Democracy, and Labor
Geoffrey Cowan
Former Director, Voice of America
Chester A. Crocker
Former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Peter Eicher
Former Deputy U.S. Representative to the UN Human Rights Commission.
Mark Fitzpatrick,
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Non-Proliferation (Acting)
Bennett Freeman
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor
Peter W Galbraith
Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia
Anthony W. Gambino
Former USAID Mission Director to the DR Congo
Larry Garber
Former Deputy Assistant Administrator, USAID
Jonathan S. Gration
Former U.S. Ambassador to Kenya
Holly Hammonds
Former Senior Director for International Economic Affairs, National Security and National
Economic Councils
William C Harrop
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Robert Herman
Former Member, U.S. State Department Policy Planning Staff
Paul Hughes
Former Deputy Director, Humanitarian Assistance and Anti-Landmine Policy, OASD (SOLIC),
Office of Secretary of Defense, and retired US Army Colonel
Karl F. Inderfurth
former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs (1997-2001)
Thomas C. Krajeski
Former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen and to Bahrain
Anthony Lake
Former National Security Advisor
David Lambertson
U.S. Ambassador (Ret)
Claudio A. Lilienfeld
Former Deputy Assistant U.S. Trade Representative
Frank Loy
Former Undersecretary of State
Jamie Metzl
Former National Security Council staff, 1997-1999, Senior Coordinator for International Public
Information, U.S. State Department, 1999-2001
Diane Orentlicher
Former Deputy for War Crimes Issues, U.S. Department of State
Susan W. O’Sullivan
Former Asia Director, State Department Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
Maria Otero
Former Undersecretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy and Human Rights
Ted Piccone
Former Associate Director, Policy Planning, U.S. Department of State, and former Director,
National Security Council staff
Charles L. Pritchard, Sr.
Former Ambassador and Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea;
Former Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Senior Director,
Asian Affairs, NSC
Susan Reichle
Senior Foreign Service officer (Ret), Counselor USAID (Ret)
Peter F. Romero
Former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of State
Barnett R. Rubin
Former Senior Advisor to the Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (2009-2013)
David Sandalow
Former Under Secretary of Energy, former Assistant Secretary of State and former Senior
Director, National Security Council
Teresita C. Schaffer
Former U.S. Ambassador to Sri Lanka, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Near
East and South Asia
Eric Schwartz
Former Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration and former NSC
Senior Director
Tod Sedgwick
Former U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia
Daniel Serwer
Former Special Envoy, U.S. Department of State
John Shattuck
Former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Rights, and Labor and former Ambassador
to the Czech Republic
David B. Shear
Former Assistant Secretary of Defense
Derek Shearer
Former U.S. Ambassador to Finland
Tara Sonenshine
Former Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs
Daniel Spiegel
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva
Richard W. Teare
Former Ambassador to Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu
Richard Wilcox
Former Director, Multilateral and Humanitarian Affairs, National Security Council
E. Ashley Wills
Former Ambassador to Sri Lanka and The Maldives
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Stevenson’s army, February 6
– Senate compromise looks dead
– GOP doesn’t like pandemic treaty
– Orban’s party delays vote
– Mattis secretly advised UAE
– Fred Kaplan analyzes Biden policy
– Politico asks if Blinken is too nice
Prof questions drawing “lessons” from history [Never mind, you still have to do the reading]
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 25
– Slovakia makes a U-turn to support Ukraine
– Orban now seems willing to let Sweden join NATO
– McConnell backs away from Ukraine + border bill
– Biden pressures Congress on F16s for Turkey
– All but 2 Senate Democrats cosponsor amendment calling for 2 state solution. Here’s the text
– SFRC approves bill to use Russian assets for Ukraine
-Here’s the text of the Kaine et al letter on war powers for Houthi attacks
– RollCall reports 2023 lobbying expenses. Note how little was foreign policy related.
And read this delightful interview with Sen. Angus King [Ind-Maine] about when he was a young Senate staffer. Times have changed.
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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