Tag: France
Peace Picks | June 14-20, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Carnegie Connects: What Will the New Israeli Change Coalition Actually Change? | June 14, 2021 | 2:00 PM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
If the inauguration of a new Israeli government—the first in over a decade without Benjamin Netanyahu—takes place this Sunday, it raises a series of questions that bear consequentially on the politics of Israel, the conflict with Palestinians, relations with key Arab states, and the Iran nuclear accord. What will the new coalition government, comprised of eight parties across the political spectrum but led by a new, right-wing prime minister, mean for the future of Israel? How will this new government address heightened tension with Palestinians following the most recent Israeli-Palestinian confrontation in Jerusalem and Gaza? And what does the new coalition portend for relations with the Biden administration, U.S. Congress, and the American Jewish community?
Speakers:
Anshel Pfeffer
Senior writer for Haaretz, Israel correspondent for the Economist, author of Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu
Natan Sachs
Director, Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy
Tal Schneider
Political Correspondent, the Times of Israel
Aaron David Miller
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Iran’s 2021 Presidential Elections: The Final End of the Reform Movement? | June 15, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Register Here
Iran holds presidential elections on 18 June. The entire process is carefully organized. From seven carefully vetted men who were allowed in the race to presidential debates that are entirely devoid of any serious policy discussion, this is an election that has by all accounts failed to excite the Iranian voters. Key policy challenges, including the role of Iran’s foreign policy in resulting in sanctions and dire economic conditions, are largely left unaddressed.
To many observers, this election is also the final nail in the coffin of the reform movement and the idea that gradual political change in the Islamic Republic is possible. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is delighted to host three prominent Iranian observers to discuss this election process and its implications.
Speakers:
Ali Afshari
Iranian Political Analyst and Activist
Nazenin Ansari
Managing Editor, Kayhan London
Negar Mortazavi
Journalist and political analyst
Alex Vatanka
Director, Iran Program, MEI
- Covid-19 in the Middle East: Regional Impact and Future Recovery | June 15, 2021 | 10:30 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to hold the second event in a four-part series in cooperation with Arab Barometer, on the occasion of the publication of Arab Barometer’s findings from the sixth wave of its surveys. This most recent poll was conducted in the wake of the outbreak of Covid-19, and assessed regional perspectives on the impact of the pandemic on public health, domestic conditions, vulnerable populations, and the way the region sees the outside world.
The second panel will bring together experts from the US and Middle East alongside Salma Al-Shami, senior research specialist with the Arab Barometer, to discuss the findings as they relate to the impact of Covid-19 and the prospects for long term recovery. How has Covid-19 impacted the region and what vulnerabilities remain? What are the respondent’s perceptions of how their governments addressed the crisis? What does localized and regional recovery look like in conjunction with other ongoing crises?
Speakers:
Yasmina Abuzzuhour
Visiting fellow, Brookings-Doha
Salma Al-Shami
Senior research specialist, Arab Barometer
Shala Al-Kli
Non-resident scholar, MEI; Deputy regional director, Mercy Corps
Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy, MEI
- The Art of War in an Age of Peace | June 15, 2021 | 11:15 AM EST | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As President Joe Biden and his team settle into their new jobs, how should they view the national security challenges facing the United States? And what should U.S. national security policy seek to achieve? Four months into the new administration, it is no longer enough to be the antidote to former President Donald Trump’s unilateralism; a more forward-looking and visionary foreign policy framework is needed. In his new book, “The Art of War in an Age of Peace: U.S. Grand Strategy and Resolute Restraint,” Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon argues that the United States should be resolute in its commitment to defend its core territories, populations, polities, and the economies of its allies, as well as the free and open skies and oceans on which the global economy depends. However, America also needs to show restraint, avoiding costly mistakes that could lead to escalation with great power rivals — such as expanding NATO to include new members — while relying instead on asymmetric defense and deterrence, including economic and military tools to preserve the international order.
Speakers:
Michele Flournoy
Chair, Board of Directors, Center for a New American Security; Co-Founder and Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors; Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Director of Research, Foreign Policy; Co-Director, Center for Security, Strategy and Technology, Africa Security Initiative; Senior fellow, Foreign Policy Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Helene Cooper (moderator)
Pentagon Correspondent, The New York Times
- Viennese Waltz: How Can the U.S. Balance its Priorities with Gulf Arab Concerns as it Engages Iran? | June 16 | 10:00 AM EST | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
U.S.-Iranian relations seem poised on a knife’s edge, primarily in the indirect negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear agreement.
Where do the talks stand? What are the prospects of an agreement, and what sticking points and pitfalls remain between the parties? If the agreement is revived, how much can be accomplished in 2022, particularly considering the rapidly expiring sunset provisions and Iran’s progress on centrifuges and other critical technology? If the agreement is restored on a compliance-for-compliance basis, is there any serious prospect of additional understandings, particularly that address non-nuclear concerns such as Iran’s missile development program and regional network of violent nonstate actors? Will U.S. regional partners in the Gulf influence the negotiations? Could progress between Washington and Tehran help to promote more robust dialogue between Iran and Gulf Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates?
Speakers:
Thomas L. Friedman
Columnist, New York Times
Suzanne Maloney
Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution
Ambassador Frank G. Wisner
Chair of the Board, AGSIW
Hussein Ibish (moderator)
Senior Resident Scholar
- Secularism & Islam in France | June 16, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Wilson Center | Register Here
Laïcité or secularism is a key part of the French political fabric but also causing friction and divisions – especially with Muslim communities. A new “Islamist separatism” bill, which would further expand on the separation of church and state, is currently being passed through the French parliament. It would prohibit any civil servant or contractor for the public sector from wearing religious symbols. Although the bill does not explicitly mention Islam as such, many fear that it could unfairly target and further alienate Muslims in France.
Is secularism in its current form still working in France? What can be done to guarantee the separation of church and state, but also protect religious freedoms and religious minorities? How do legitimate security concerns, and the debate about political Islam and freedom of speech heighten tensions?
Speakers:
Amel Boubekeur
Sociologist, EHESS (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales)
Steven Philip Kramer
Global Fellow ; Professor of National Security Studies, Eisenhower School, National Defense University
Hakim El Karoui
Senior Fellow, Institut Montaigne; Senior Partner & Paris Office Head, Brunswick
William Drozdiak (moderator)
Global Fellow; Author “The Last President of Europe: Emmanuel Macron’s Race to Revive France and Save the World.”
- Human Rights Violations in Black Sea Occupied Territories | June 16, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Middle East institute | Register Here
Human rights violations in illegally-annexed Crimea and the occupied territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have become a constant element of Russian aggression in the Black Sea region. In both cases, unlawful killings and detentions, enforced disappearances, abductions, and torture are some of the most flagrant human rights violations that Russian and de facto authorities are committing. Additionally, Russian and de facto authorities in occupied territories have also developed targeted policies against the local population, such as borderization in Georgia and militarization and passportization in Ukraine. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, rights in the occupied territories have worsened, and authorities have further restricted freedom of movement, access to education and healthcare, freedom of religion, and workers’ ability to secure a livelihood.
What are the similarities between the human rights violations of Russian and de facto authorities in occupied territories across the Black Sea region? How has the pandemic impacted the human rights situation in the occupied territories of Georgia and Ukraine? What are the next steps in improving the human rights situation in these territories and deterring Russian aggression?
Speakers:
Maria Tomak
Coordinator, Media Initiative for Human Rights, Ukraine
Ann Tsurtsumia-Zurabashvili
Project manager, East-West Management Institute (EWMI), Advancing CSO Capacities and Engaging Society for Sustainability (ACCESS), Georgia
Iulia Joja (moderator)
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- Preventing Catastrophe in Afghanistan | June 16, 2021 | 3:00 PM EST | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
On April 14th, President Biden announced a complete U.S. troop withdrawal by September 11, 2021, with a peace conference between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban initially set for April 24th in Istanbul, Turkey. However, the peace conference has been postponed indefinitely due to the Taliban reneging. As of April 2021, civilian casualties in Afghanistan have increased by 29 percent as compared to April 2020, with significant increases in woman and child casualties.
As the U.S. withdrawal develops, the economic, political, and human rights future of Afghanistan remains uncertain. These issues in Afghanistan also play into United States interests in the surrounding region, including in human rights, development, and political and economic stability. One school of thought argues that ending U.S. military presence accelerates a real dialogue amongst the parties in Afghanistan. Another posits that a U.S. withdrawal will result in the collapse of development, human rights, and economic progress, specifically gains in social, political and women’s rights issues made in the last 20 years. A current and future challenge will be in determining what role the United States can and should play in Afghanistan following a military withdrawal and what pathways remain for a resolution of the regional conflict.
Speakers:
Earl Anthony Wayne
Senior Advisor, Project on Prosperity and Development
Annie Pforzheimer
Senior Associate, Project on Prosperity and Development
Richard Olson
Senior Associate, Project on Prosperity and Development
Daniel F. Runde
Senior Vice President; William A. Schreyer Chair and Director, Project on Prosperity and Development
- Digital Occupation: The Implications of Media Moderation in Palestine | June 17, 2021 | 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the international community has further opened its eyes to the dangerous patterns of censorship and discrimination against Palestinians and Palestinian narratives online, particularly on social media platforms, many have called for legislative reform, policy changes at the company level, and more attention to the needs and concerns of Palestinians on the part of stakeholders in the technology industry. While some limited partnerships and reforms have made progress on this issue, there is still an enormous gulf in the area of policy responses to the problem of online discrimination against Palestinians.
What are some of the implications of this phenomenon? How might it impact movements for Palestinian rights, and broader international attention to the Israel-Palestine question? What are some potential policy steps – both for social media and technology companies, governments and states, and other civil society groups and stakeholders – that might start to address this challenge in a more systematic way? This panel will explore the policy responses to this complex issue and hope to draw attention to some concrete policy reforms for the future.
Speakers:
Radhika Sainath
Senior staff attorney, Palestine Legal
Mona Shtaya
Local advocacy manager, 7amleh
Ashraf Zeitoon
Advisor and investor; former director of public policy, Middle East, Turkey & Africa, Netflix; former head of policy, Middle East and North Africa, Facebook
Eliza Campell (moderator)
Associate director, Impact and Innovation, MEI
- President Jimmy Carter and the Middle East: Reexamining his legacy forty years later | June 17, 11:00 AM EST | The Brookings Institute | Register Here
Beginning in 1977, Former president Jimmy Carter’s administration was one of the most consequential for American foreign policy in the Middle East. His determination to secure an Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty transformed the Arab-Israeli confrontation in many ways. During his presidency, the shah of Iran was replaced by Ayatollah Khomeini and the ensuing hostage crisis doomed Carter’s re-election. The Iran-Iraq war also began on his watch. In Afghanistan, Carter devised the strategy and alliances that defeated the Soviet Union and won the Cold War. However, Carter has been an outcast in American politics for four decades.
On June 17, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host award winning author Kai Bird for a discussion of the Carter administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East and Bird’s new book, “The Outlier: The Unfinished Presidency of Jimmy Carter,” which considers the triumphs and failures of the Carter presidency. Brookings Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel, whose career in the CIA began during the Carter administration, will join Bird for a discussion of the legacy of the Carter administration forty years later.
Speakers:
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; Director, The Intelligence Project
Kai Bird
Contributing Editor, The Nation; Executive Director and Distinguished lecturer, Leon Levy Center for Biography, City University of New York
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The future of the “French initiative” in Lebanon
The Middle East Institute (MEI) May 25 and 26 hosted the first two days of their inaugural Lebanon Policy Conference. In collaboration with the American Task Force on Lebanon and LIFE, this two-part series looks to tackle the urgency and potential paths for Lebanon’s current political, financial, and humanitarian crises. On Wednesday May 26, MEI hosted three events: The Future of US Policy Toward Lebanon: A Conversation with Senator Tim Kaine and Ambassador David Hale, Breaking the Lebanese Political Logjam, and Lebanon Amid Evolving Regional and International Dynamics. On Thursday May 27, MEI hosted two events: The Future of the “French Initiative”: A Conversation with Ambassador Pierre Duquesne, and The Final Countdown: How to Manage Lebanon’s Transformational Economic Crisis and Avert Total Collapse.
What is the future of the “French initiative” and how has the role of French and European diplomacy evolved in recent months? Ambassador Pierre Duquesne’s keynote speech for The Future of the “French Initiative” emphasized the need for international collaboration and pressure in continuing to promote the French initiative towards political reform in Lebanon. The speakers were:
Ambassador Pierre Duquesne
Ambassador in charge of Coordinating International Support to Lebanon, French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Charbel Abou Charaf (Moderator)
Partner, White & Castle LLP; Member, LIFE Advocate
LIFE Advocate Program:
Charaf explained that LIFE Advocates was created with regards to the unprecedented existential crisis currently taking place in Lebanon. The program aims to channel LIFE’s significant collective expert resources and goodwill to influence economic policymaking in Lebanon and support economic and financial development.
Background on the French initiative in Lebanon
Duquesne began his keynote speech discussing the primary initiatives launched by France and President Macron following the August 4, 2020 port explosion. While Macron advocated a French initiative to kick-start discussions to form a government, there has been no movement on that front. At present, the French initiative has shifted from promoting the formation of a new government at any cost to promoting a government dedicated to reforms. However, each roadmap released by Macron has been postponed due to the Lebanese political class.
Duquesne cited four reasons why the French initiative is still relevant:
- to increase confidence within the Lebanese polity in its ability to create and sustain a functioning government;
- to push the political class to act by supporting public opinion, suggesting action in the short term, and pushing the international community to participate;
- to sustain French efforts that have taken place throughout Macron’s four years in office;
- to promote the implementation of an IMF program to push reforms forward and treat the current banking crisis.
In his statement, Duquesne emphasized the relevance of Lebanese development, drawing attention to the need for methods and reforms to remain current and applicable. The French initiative’s fight against corruption was indispensable, but it would not be sufficient to establish a new and stable governing body.
Hezbollah as a key obstacle
The Lebanese people and government, according to Duquesne, have always promoted the dissociation of Lebanon from regional crises. Duquesne argued that if the country does not engage in dynamic reform then it may be the object of confrontation by regional actors. He claimed dissociation is essential for reforms and reforms can promote dissociation. In his discussion of Hezbollah, he emphasized the need to distinguish between the military and political wings of Hezbollah, clarifying the condemned nature of the militant wing while remembering the party’s political power. It is impossible to ignore Hezbollah, and it is essential to interact politically with the group. This is not to promote support for the organization, however. As Senator Tim Kaine explained in his statements on the future of US foreign policy towards Lebanon, Duquesne reiterated the need for the international community to support the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Concluding thoughts:
Duquesne concluded his statement with a call to action towards the international community. He reminded viewers that France granted 86 million euros last year and 60 million euros this year towards reconstruction and relief efforts. However, he also warned of indifference, emphasizing the risk of fatigue that comes from extended political unrest without significant change. However, in a conclusion to his talk, Duquesne quoted President Macron stating “Je ne vous laisserai pas” (I will not abandon you), a statement by Macron to the Lebanese people. Duquesne reminded participants and viewers that the international community is needed in handling and finding solutions to the current crises facing Lebanon.
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The Alliance needs its members to get tough
In advance of the upcoming NATO Leaders Meeting, it is a timely to discuss the Alliance as a political forum and its future cohesion. NATO’s strength and resilience derive from Allies’ shared committment to the values and spirit of the Washington Treaty, namely the principles of democracy, individual liberty, the rule of law, and the development of peaceful international relations. As NATO grapples with a challenging security environment, it must also confront erosion of democratic norms within some member countries, which undermines NATO unity. On April 27, 2021, The Center for Strategic and International Studies convened a panel to discuss prospects for NATO cohesion in light of a changing strategic environment. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Ambassador Muriel Domenach: Permanent Representative of France to NATO
MdB Omid Nouripour: Foreign Policy Spokesperson for the German Green party.
Rachel Ellehuus (Moderator): Deputy Director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program
Heather A. Conley (Introductory Remarks): Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic
Values and Principles Define NATO
One consistent theme of the panel was the centrality of democratic values and ideals for defining the character of the NATO alliance. Ambassador Domenach noted that a lack of ideological and political cohesion across NATO member countries is a detriment to Alliance structure. The increasing failure to agree on basic norms of good governance and democratic rule intensifies tension and undermines meaningful cooperation. Moreover, the failure to agree on basic values undermines the material ability of NATO and its member nations to engage in its core functions of deterrence and defense in two ways. First, ideological rifts are particularly significant in the context of NATO’s organizational structure, which requires unified decision-making. When any one country can block actions by the group, schisms within the group become increasingly problematic. Second, lack of ideological cohesion in NATO undermines credibility because it decreases the likelihood that NATO will be able to act decisively against its enemies.
Nouripour similarly argued that ideological divisions among NATO members has material implications for security. He pointed to Turkey’s current attempts to play the US and Russia off of one another. The most significant manifestation of this strategy of straddling with ideological opponents has been the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. However, Ankara has recently discovered that the black boxes in the S-400 will not allow them to target Russian planes. In essence, then, a NATO ally has ceded its air defense sovereignty to Russia.
Ellehuus pointed out, however, that NATO has not always relied on, or succeeded based on, ideological uniformity. In fact, at the outset NATO included members such as Portugal that did not at the time share the same democratic values as many of the other members. She argued that this might indicate that value cohesion is not necessarily crucial for NATO. However, both Nouripour and Domenach agreed that ideological cohesion is more critical now than it was in the early days of NATO. Nouripour argued that democratic backsliding and the rise of disinformation campaigns and other attempts to actively weaken democracies dictates that a stronger emphasis be placed on maintaining democratic values.
Compelling Good Behavior
One clear weakness of the NATO structure that emerged out of this panel’s discussion is the difficulty that the organization has in compelling good behavior from non-compliant member states. Domenach pointed to suggestions about creating a code of conduct or reviewing compliance with fundamental NATO values. Ellehuus similarly pointed to two proposed articles that would require NATO allies to 1) refrain from politically motivated blockages of NATO business, and 2) to report any interactions with third countries that might affect the security of allies.
However, she also acknowledged that these changes were highly unlikely to pass in any meaningful form, largely because non-compliant members can and most likely will veto any attempt to pass these measures. She also argued that the North Atlantic Council is a valuable forum through which to air disagreements and negotiate solutions. Recent attempts by the NATO Secretary-General have proven fruitful in this regard.
Nouripour disagreed with this assessment to some extent. While he agreed that NATO is unlikely to pass meaningful reforms that allow it to police the conduct of member states, he similarly found the prospect of the North Atlantic Council and the NATO Secretary-General negotiating compliance to be unlikely. Instead, he argued more in favor of direct bilateral and multilateral engagement to push for democratic values. Given the constraints of NATO as an organization, he believes that states acting on a national basis can perhaps create greater leverage with member countries. Ellehuus ultimately agreed that national power might be an effective mechanism through which to encourage compliance
Therefore, while NATO faces a variety of internal and external threats to its political and ideological cohesion, member states are stepping up in innovative ways to tackle the new threats of the 21st century.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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Stevenson’s army, February 10
– NYT says Israeli intelligence reports it would take 2 years for Iran to build nuclear weapons, given recent problems.
– Army Times sees great danger from drones. Defense One suggests ways to counter them.
– Politico says SecDef Austin is hiring talented civilians.
– Defense One urges rethinking our various national stockpiles.
-AEI analyst has good summary of US ideas about China.
– EU diplomat humiliated by Russians.
– NYT says many in France say American “woke leftism” threatens French culture & society.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | November 30 – December 4, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. France and Islam: Identity, Politics, and Geopolitics | November 30, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
France’s contentious policy on the public practice of Islam has struck multiple identity and political fault lines, not only in France or Europe, but also across the Muslim world. What was essentially a domestic French political debate has morphed into a global debate on relations between state and religion, liberalism and secularism, and the West and Islam/Muslim-majority countries. The intensifying controversy in France comes amid growing populist calls for limiting migration, especially from Muslim countries, and ongoing government initiatives that would deepen the securitization of Islam in the country. President Macron’s rhetoric has dovetailed with France’s foreign policy toward the Middle East’s ideological and geopolitical cleavages, ensuring the amplification of reactions abroad. While the public reaction in the Middle East has been largely uniform, official reactions have exposed existing divisions and conflicts on regional affairs.
The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend a webinar on France’s evolving policy on the public and political manifestations of Islam. Among other topics, the webinar will address the following questions: What are the domestic and foreign policy drivers of France’s new policy on Islam and Islamism? How is this policy shaping identity debates on Islam and Muslims in the West? What does this policy tell us about populism, nativism, and multiculturalism in France in particular and the West in general? And what will be the geopolitical implications of this new policy in the Middle East and the Muslim world?
Speakers:
Galip Dalay, moderator: Nonresident Fellow – Brookings Doha CenterRichard von Weizsäcker Fellow, Robert Bosch Academy
François Burgat: Senior Research Fellow – French National Centre for Scientific Research
Jocelyne Cesari: Visiting Professor of Religion, Violence, and Peacebuilding – Harvard Divinity School
Rim-Sarah Alouane: Ph.D candidate in Comparative Law – Université Toulouse
2. Taking Stock: Five Years of Russia’s Intervention in Syria | November 30, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 PM EST | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Russia’s military intervention in Syria in October 2015 changed the course of the civil war, saving the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Five years on, al-Assad is still in power and the country remains unstable. Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria and the United States’ withdrawal of troops in late 2019 have redesigned the geography of the conflict, while the EU has been largely absent from the diplomatic efforts to halt the war.
Speakers:
Marc Pierini: visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.
Jomana Qaddour: nonresident senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Program of the Atlantic Council, where she leads the Syria portfolio.
Dmitri Trenin: director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. Also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.
Frances Z. Brown: senior fellow with Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
3. Contested Waters: Flashpoints for Conflict in Asia | December 1, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
No modern states have ever declared war over water. In fact, nations dependent on shared water sources have collaborated far more frequently than they have clashed. Nevertheless, global surveys have counted over 40 hostile or militarized international actions over water—from riots to border skirmishes to larger battles—in the first six decades after World War II.
Join USIP for a virtual discussion on the future of water conflict and water diplomacy. Environmental peacebuilding experts and activists from Burma, India, and Pakistan will discuss the strategies they use to mitigate water conflict risks in their countries, as well as examine insights from a new USIP report, “Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies,” that may help develop early warning indicators for emerging water-based conflicts.
Speakers:
Tegan Blaine: Senior Advisor on Environment and Conflict, U.S. Institute of Peace
David Michel: Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; Author, “Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies”
Abdul Aijaz: Doctoral Candidate, Indiana University Bloomington
Amit Ranjan: Research Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore
Z Nang Raw: Director of Policy and Strategy, Nyein Foundation
Jumaina Siddiqui, moderator: Senior Program Officer for South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. U.S.-China Relations Under Biden: A Look Ahead | December 1, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While the recent election of Joe Biden likely signals a raft of domestic political changes, its impact on U.S.-China relations remains unclear. The Trump administration has remolded the relationship, which is now defined by confrontations over economic practices, emerging technologies, and security. There is also growing bipartisan support for pursuing a tougher approach to China, and the Justice, State, and Defense departments are increasingly prioritizing new initiatives to push back on Beijing. Will Biden maintain the confrontational tone and policies of his predecessor? Or will he devise an entirely different posture toward Beijing? The answers to these questions will not only have critical consequences for the two countries in question, but for the broader international community as well.
One month after the U.S. election, Paul Haenle will moderate a discussion with American and Chinese experts on how the Biden administration will approach China, as well as how Beijing is gearing up for the new U.S. president.
Speakers:
Paul Haenle: Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center based at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China
Evan A. Feigenbaum: Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Xie Tao: Professor of Political Science and Dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy, Beijing Foreign Studies University
5. Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World | December 2, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
With rapid technological change, shifting global demographics, and tectonic geopolitical shifts, the world faces an inflection point—where the choices that leaders make in the coming years will have profound implications for generations. In response to this moment, former Secretary of State George P. Shultz has organized a project at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution called Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging World to explore what these shifts mean for global democracy, economies, and security.
Join USIP and Stanford’s Hoover Institution for a timely conversation on the project’s findings and its implications for U.S. and international policy. The panel discussion will evaluate the major demographic, technological, and economic trends that are creating tectonic shifts in our geopolitical landscape and forcing a strategic rethink of governance strategies in the 21st century. In light of the challenges identified, panelists will also consider how the United States and others can harness these changes to usher in greater security and prosperity.
Agenda
2:00pm – 2:20pm | A Conversation with Secretary George P. Shultz
The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley: Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
Secretary George P. Shultz: Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
2:20pm – 3:20pm | Panel Discussion: Governance Strategies for the Emerging New World
Dr. Chester A. Crocker, moderator: James R. Schlesinger Professor of Strategic Studies, Georgetown University
Dr. Lucy Shapiro: Virginia and D. K. Ludwig Professor of Developmental Biology, Stanford University
Ambassador George Moose: Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. James P. Timbie: Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Dr. Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo: President, El Colegio de México
3:20pm – 3:30pm | Closing Remarks
Ambassador George Moose: Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
6. Venezuela’s Assembly Elections | December 3, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
On Sunday, December 6, 2020, Venezuela will hold elections to choose members of the National Assembly for five-year terms. Since 2015, Venezuela’s political opposition has held a majority in the Assembly, the body from which Juan Guaidó emerged as interim President in January 2019.
This December’s Assembly elections take place against a backdrop of acute restrictions on political freedoms under the regime of Nicolás Maduro. For example, to limit and undermine the National Assembly’s authority, the regime convened elections in 2017 for a parallel Constituent Assembly, elections condemned by over 40 countries in Latin America and around the world. In recent years, leading opposition figures have been summarily prohibited from offering their candidacy, and in 2020, the Venezuelan Supreme Court arbitrarily removed the leadership of opposition parties, substituting others appointed by the government.
Amidst these growing restrictions on democratic space, the opposition has decided not to participate in the December 6 elections, a decision supported by scores of countries who have recognized the interim presidency of Juan Guaidó.
What, then, do these elections mean for the political future of Venezuela? What future strategies are available to the opposition? Will citizens, exhausted by chronic shortages of basic goods and in the midst of a raging pandemic, show up to vote? What will a new Assembly mean for the political future of Juan Guaidó?
Speakers:
Michael Penfold: Abraham F. Lowenthal Public Policy Fellow; Professor of Political Science, Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA) Business and Public Policy School, Venezuela
Margarita Lopez Maya: Professor, Center for Development Studies (CENDES), Universidad Central de Venezuela
Beatriz Borges: Director, Center for Justice and Peace (CEPAZ)
Phil Gunson: Senior Analyst, Andes, International Crisis Group
Cynthia J. Arnson, moderator: Director, Latin American Program
7. What Challenges will the UN Pose for the Joe Biden Administration? | December 3, 2020 | 3:30 – 5:00 pM ET | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The incoming administration will confront a United Nations that increasingly serves as a theater for great-power competition, rather than the forum for global peace and understanding that its founders hoped to achieve. In addition, some of the greatest violators of human rights are on the UN’s Human Rights Council, while the World Health Organization stands accused of hampering the international COVID-19 response due to political pressures.
Please join AEI for an in-depth discussion on the key challenges the UN faces in an era of competition among the US, China, and Russia and how the Biden administration can strengthen the UN-US relationship.
Speakers:
Ivana Stradner, opening remarks: Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow, AEI
Sam Daws: Director, Project on UN Governance and Reform, University of Oxford
Hillel Neuer: Executive Director, UN Watch
Stewart M. Patrick: Director, International Institutions and Global Governance Program, Council on Foreign Relations
Danielle Pletka: Senior Fellow, AEI
John Yoo: Visiting Scholar, AEI
Kori Schake, moderator: Director, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI
8. Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics and Changing Role in the World | December 4, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
For the last two decades, discussions on Pakistan have centered around the U.S. war in Afghanistan and on Pakistan’s struggle with extremism, while its rich history, complex internal dynamics, and the aspirations of its citizens were largely excluded from the narrative. Nearly 20 years after 9/11, it is time for the United States to reexamine its relationship with, and understanding of, this complicated country.
On December 4, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a panel discussion taking a multifaceted look at this nation of 220 million people. The event will include a discussion on domestic issues, ranging from the human and women’s rights situation to Islamist politics and ethnic and religious insurgencies within the country. In addition, the conversation will focus on the implications of a Biden presidency for Pakistan, as well as the country’s changing role in the Greater Middle East and South Asia.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and TechnologyDirector – The Intelligence Project
Declan Walsh: Cairo Bureau Chief – New York Times
9. The U.S.-India Partnership: Looking Forward | December 4, 2020 | 8:30 – 9:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
The growth of the U.S.-India strategic partnership has been a significant achievement both in Washington and in New Delhi over the last two decades. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Laura Stone and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Reed Werner will review recent successes and identify future goals for the relationship. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.
Speakers:
Laura Stone: deputy assistant secretary of state for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Bhutan.
Reed Werner: deputy assistant secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia.
Ashley J. Tellis: Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
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The emerging tetrapolar mad world
Pantelis Ikonomou, former nuclear IAEA inspector, writes:
Nuclear weapons are a vital but latent dimension of the growing geopolitical competition. Nuclear capabilities continue to constitute a prime source of power in shaping global power relations amid dangerous non-nuclear conflicts and military confrontations. New power balances are forming.
The main emerging poles are two well-established ones, the United States and Russia, and two emerging ones, China and Europe (led by France as the EU’s last remaining nuclear power post-Brexit). The US and Russia have failed in efforts to engage China in new nuclear and ballistic missile agreements. France is trying to exercise leadership in Europe and the Mediterranean. French President Emmanuel Macron has offered to open a “strategic dialogue” with willing European states prepared to accept the central role of France. He pointed out that “Europe should reinforce its strategic autonomy in the face of growing global threats and stop relying solely on the United States and the Transtlantic Alliance for its defense”
Any excited system will sooner or later reach a state of equilibrium. A tetrapolar structure is emerging around the leading nuclear weapon states: the US, Russia, China and France. These four nuclear powers are flanked by others based on criteria of pragmatism and strategic necessity. The whole process is guided more by bilateral agreements than existing treaties and international institutions. The new tetrapolar world order appears as follows:
- Around the US superpower stand nuclear UK as well as Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and several European NATO states. The connecting force within this pole is American geopolitical primacy and its ambition to strategically control East and South Asia.
- Around Russia will stand India, several former Soviet states, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and sometimes Turkey and Egypt. This pole’s source of cohesion is nuclear deterrence against the Chinese threat, as well as geopolitical influence in the Middle East region.
- Around China are Pakistan, North Korea and the majority of the developing countries in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). In this nuclear pole the predominant parameter is China’s nuclear deterrence of its US, Russian, and Indian adversaries as well as Chinese economic, military and political assistance.
- France would be flanked by several southern European, Middle East and African states (and occasionally by Israel). The prevailing link in this alliance, besides historical and cultural references, is strategic influence on the wider region and security against a rising adversary, Islamic extremism.
Once a stable equilibrium is achieved, this new tetrapolar nuclear world order might allow the leading nuclear powers to realize the vast global threat they pose to humankind through their bilateral standoffs. Nuclear disarmament as requested by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT, Art. VI) and emphatically repeated by the international community in the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty of July 2017 should be a top priority. De-escalation of the current nuclear race and terminating weapons “modernization” ought to be the initial objectives of the world powers aiming eventually to complete and irreversible global nuclear disarmament.
The current nuclear threat to humanity arises from the suicidal so-called MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) nuclear strategy, It ought to be abolished. The threat of a nuclear apocalypse, whether by intent, accident, or miscalculation, will be at its highest level ever so long as MAD prevails in this tetrapolar world.
* This article draws on the author’s book “Global Nuclear Developments – Insights of a former IAEA nuclear inspector,” Springer, May 2020.
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