Tag: gaza
Stevenson’s army, November 5
Exactly one year before the big federal elections —
– WaPo suggests both House and Senate might flip control.
– NYT polls look bad for Biden in battleground states. Here’s more analysis.
– WSJ says US & Israel divided over Gaza goals
– NYT says US offered ideas to reduce civilian casualties
– NYT sees rift in Ukrainian leadership
– WaPO says Putin had good October
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Pie in the sky is no “day after” solution
Tom Warrick, a respected former colleague at the State Department, has offered a thoughtful formula for the “day after” in Gaza. But it is also an impossible formula far from the reality of what is likely to happen.
Before turning to Tom’s specific points, we need to imagine what kind of international presence will be required in Gaza after this war to secure the peace, assuming Israel succeeds in defeating Hamas. Experience suggests this will be a “heavy peace enforcement” mission for a population around 2.5 million. That would require upwards of 30,000 international troops and 4000 police, the latter Arabic-speaking. In addition it will need 7500 Gazan military and 5500 Gazan police. I know nowhere you could get even a fraction of that personnel. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank has fewer than 10,000 police.
Corruption
First priority, Tom says, is to end Hamas culture of economic corruption. But what he refers to as “culture” is in fact Hamas’ authoritarian rule in Gaza. Like other authoritarians, Hamas used the resources of the state to maintain monopolistic control. Any new leadership taking over will want to preserve that system, not destroy it. The root-and-branch reforms Tom advocates would be at best the outcome of a decade-long international presence.
Listening
Most of us who have been involved in international interventions think we should have listened more to “ordinary” people. But it is not easy to do. Assessing what the locals really want is inherently difficult in a post-war environment, when people will often tell you only what they think you want to hear. And what they want most–food, shelter, jobs, and a “normal” life are often top of the list–may be difficult to provide. Most certainly won’t be talking about public integrity and civil service hiring.
Educational curriculum
No question. This needs changing as Gaza education inculcates not only hatred of Israel but of Jews, with whom Gazans are going to need to get along if peace is to last. But the non-Gazan “experts” Tom thinks can do this will find it impossible to reconcile his aim of “lasting coexistence” with the view of the world of the Gazans who have suffered through this and previous wars. The US tried to use “experts” to reform the history curriculum in Iraq. It failed. What the experts want will clash with Gazan experience.
A democratic constitution
I agree with Tom that “Israel needs to demonstrate that it is committed to a two-state solution.” But that doesn’t mean the Gazans are going to write the kind of democratic constitution he wants. Sure Gazans want their own state, but they have no reason to believe that peace or democracy will get them there. They need only look at the Palestinian Authority to conclude the opposite.
Economic rebuilding
The resources to rebuild the economy could well become available, mainly from the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are the prime candidates. We are talking a few tens of billions of dollars, which is chicken feed if the political will exists. But the Gulfies won’t ante up unless they can sell what they do as leading to the Palestinian state the Israelis are unlikely to permit, at least in the immediate post-war period.
Border security
Tom suggests “Israel will want to ensure for at least three decades, as unobtrusively as possible, that neither Iran not anyone else has the ability to smuggle into Gaza the means of waging war.” If this were possible, the Israelis would already have done it. They are no long able even to prevent the smuggling of small arms into the West Bank. There they control not only the borders but also occupy essentially the entire territory.
Bottom line
Hope is not a plan. Nor is despair, but it seems to me more justified at present than hope. Pie in the sky is no “day after” solution.
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Stevenson’s army, November 1
– WaPo says House GOP Israel bill will add $90 billion to the debt over 10 years.
– Yale prof warns against bombing Mexico
– Consistent with War Powers law and past precedent, Biden informed Congress of the recent US attacks in Iraq and Syria.
– I’ve often told the story that LBJ asked a prospective White House counsel if he was “a Yes lawyer or a No lawyer.” NYT says Trump would want only Yes lawyers in a new administration.
– SecState Blinken expects a “revitalized Palestinian Authority” will rule postwar Gaza.
Trade-offs [from D Brief]
Chinese-drone ban gains pace: Later today, bipartisan members of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party plan to introduce the American Security Drone Act of 2023, the latest attempt to stop the U.S. government from buying drones built in China and other countries labeled as national security threats. It follows several failed attempts to extend the current ban on DOD purchases of Chinese drones to the rest of the government, including a companion to a Senate bill that was re-introduced in February after failing to pass in 2021.
Here’s a case for such a ban, from former INDOPACOM ops director Mark Montgomery, now with FDD. Essentially, he argues at D1, Chinese-made drones could spy on U.S. citizens and infrastructure.
Here’s a case against it, from drone expert Faine Greenwood, writing at Foreign Policy. The FP piece is paywalled, but she limns it here: “There’s one big, fat problem: there is no non-Chinese consumer drone company that does what DJI does. Much less does it at such a low price-point, which is a vital consideration for the vast swaths of modern drone users who don’t have unlimited cash to throw around. And building a DJI-killer is a lot harder than you might assume: although a number of Western competitors tried to knock DJI off the pedestal over the last decade, they all failed…Eventually, they largely stopped trying. This is also why both Ukrainians and Russians are continuing to chew through vast quantities of DJI drones on the battlefield, despite massive misgivings about their reliance on Chinese tech.”
DOD’s current bans: The Pentagon stopped buying drones from China’s DJI in 2017, and most off-the-shelf drones in 2018; that same year, Congress generally but not totally forbade the military to buy any Chinese-made drones.
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A difficult choice and an easy one
The questions of a “humanitarian pause” and an Israeli invasion of Gaza are often discussed separately. They are related.
No invasion means more bombing
We have to assume that Israel will not let Hamas off the hook. At a minimum, Israel is trying to destroy Hamas’ military capability. That can only be done by military means. If you want to see a “humanitarian pause,” the bombing will stop, but that increases from the Israeli perspective the need to go into Gaza to hunt Hamasniks. If you want Israel to stay out of Gaza, the bombing will have to continue and even intensify.
My own preference would be for the Israelis to stay out of Gaza. Urban warfare is difficult and deadly even without an extensive network of tunnels. Once in, the Israelis will likely find they will need to stay, unless they are prepared to see something like Hamas (or worse) return. The invasion, plus an occupation of a decade or more, will kill a lot more Israelis and Palestinians than the bombing.
An Israeli invasion of Gaza is also likely to trigger a wider regional war. Hizbollah in Lebanon, various Iranian proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen are capable of launching thousands of missiles at Israel. If the Israelis can’t handle that, they will turn to the United States to help out. Intense American attacks on Iranian proxies could trigger war with Iran. That scenario is a nightmare to be avoided, even if some hawks in the US might welcome it.
Of course there is an option for no bombing and no invasion. But that won’t satisfy popular opinion inside Israel. Nor would it help Prime Minister Netanyahu stay in power. He is responsible for the intelligence and preparedness failures that allows Hamas to do what it did. As soon as the military action stops, political accountability will begin. He will try to postpone that day.
Stop the abuse
The easy choice is on the West Bank. There the Israeli army and ultra-religious settlers have been harassing and killing Palestinians with impunity, not only since October 7. That behavior infuriates Palestinians and Arabs everywhere. From Israel’s own perspective, this is counterproductive. It could also be dangerous. The dog that hasn’t barked is Israel’s own Arab Palestinian population.
Here too Netanyahu is the fly in the ointment. He has been unwilling to reign in the extremists of his own coalition. Nor has the broadening of that coalition with a few opposition politicians compelled him to do so. The Americans are speaking up against Israeli behavior on the West Bank, but so far with little effect. They need to make it stick.
Get ahead of the political curve
At the moment, the Israelis are both intensifying the bombing and entering Gaza at will, without however yet trying to hold territory there. But humanitarian conditions are deteriorating rapidly and clearly require at least a bombing pause. Israel should combine that with a clear statement of restraint in the West Bank and a promise to deal with legitimate Palestinian aspirations once the fighting is over. But of course that would not help Netanyahu, so it is unlikely to happen.
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Stevenson’s army, October 27
– Senate defeated measure requiring US troop withdrawal from Niger.
– More on efforts to get around Tuberville holds
– House GOP are blocking PEPFAR funds
– National Review editor says GOP doesn’t really want to be in charge
– Public approval of Congress drops to 13%
– WaPo’s Josh Rogin quotes HFAC Chair saying US lacks legal authorization to fight Iranian-backed militias.
– NYT says Israeli government divided on invading Gaza
– Foreign Affairs reports on Gaza opinion on Hamas.
– WOTR writers reconsider views on infantry tactics
-Politico reports Arizona-Florida tomato war
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Law, escalation, planning
I get a lot of messages from the Jewish organization J Street, which I support. I thought this one might be informative to those who wonder what liberal American Jews are thinking (I’ve inserted the headings, because my software likes them):
Daniel,
The entire J Street community has been profoundly, deeply and often personally affected by the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7. In an unspeakably painful moment, we’ve rallied together to support each other and to support communities on the ground.
In this exceedingly dark hour, we’ve been deeply moved by the support from President Biden and leaders across the political spectrum.
When the President visited Israel last week, he delivered a strong, heartfelt and meaningful show of support for Israelis at a time of immense national grief and trauma. His visit and his words were warmly received by Israelis and by the American Jewish community.
In the days and weeks since Hamas’ heinous attack, J Street has strongly supported Israel’s right to defend its citizens in accordance with international law and to bring the perpetrators to justice.
Hostages and Gaza civilians
The hostages remain at the forefront of our concerns, and we urge accelerated efforts by the international community to ensure their safe and speedy return. Images of families filled with relief as the first hostages were released have provided a rare glimpse of hope in an otherwise dismal moment.
We’ve also borne witness to immense destruction and suffering in Gaza. Families desperate to find shelter from air strikes, cut off from access to food, water, medicine and electricity. We are deeply concerned by the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe developing for its civilian population, and are pressing for American leadership to save lives and prevent further suffering.
The days ahead pose challenging decisions for Israel and for the United States. There aren’t easy answers, or fully satisfactory ones.
However, we must recognize that decisions made now – in the heat of the reaction to this horrific terror attack – will impact the safety and security of Israelis, Palestinians, the Middle East and the world for decades to come.
Below are considerations in the near-term regarding Israel’s response. In a few days, I’ll share more thoughts about the longer term.
Ground invasion
Undoubtedly, for days now, you’ve been seeing the same blaring headlines that I have: “Ground Invasion Imminent.”
The Biden administration – wisely, I believe – has reportedly been stressing caution and patience. We know that whatever course of action Israel takes next will have significant ramifications for the safety of hostages in Gaza, potential escalation on other fronts and, of course, the safety and wellbeing of Palestinian civilians.
Many with direct experience making tough decisions in such situations have written wise commentaries in recent days urging caution and thoughtfulness, reflecting on the US experiences during the “War on Terror”: Former President Barack Obama. Israel’s most senior retired military commanders. Members of Congress with direct experience in Iraq like Seth Moulton and others.
As journalist Zack Beauchamp recently wrote in Vox: As a true friend of Israel, the United States should help Israel “make the right choice where America made the wrong one.”
So, what does that look like?
Abide by international law
First: As President Obama wrote this week, every conceivable effort must be made to avoid civilian casualties, support humanitarian assistance, and fully abide by international law.
“Upholding these values is important for its own sake, because it is morally just and reflects our belief in the inherent value of every human life,” the former president wrote. “Upholding these values is also vital for building alliances and shaping international opinion – all of which are critical for Israel’s long-term security.”
Inflicting unnecessary suffering on civilians in Gaza is morally wrong and deeply upsetting. Many of the scenes that we have seen from Gaza so far – of residential buildings and city blocks destroyed, of entire families killed, of hospitals barely functioning without sufficient electricity, medicine or water – are horrifying to all of us. The prospect that the toll taken on civilians could grow even worse going forward under an intensified military operation is heartrending.
We also know, from America’s own experience, that continued devastation and suffering in Gaza will also weaken support for Israel when it needs it most.
Humanitarian surge
J Street strongly supports diplomatic efforts to protect civilians and deliver a much-needed “humanitarian surge” – including unimpeded humanitarian corridors, turning water and electricity back on, designating safe zones and heeding the advice of aid agencies.
We agree with Secretary of State Blinken, who told the UN Security Council this week that “humanitarian pauses must be considered” for purposes of protecting civilians, ensuring them access to vital aid and helping them get out of harm’s way.
As President Obama noted, the Netanyahu government’s decision to cut off food, water and electricity to a captive civilian population is wrong on its face and threatens to backfire – not only worsening the growing humanitarian crisis, but eroding regional and global support for Israel while playing into the hands of its enemies.
The appalling rhetoric from senior Israeli leaders who have called for “bombing without distinction,” “destruction rather than accuracy” or even that the children of Gaza have “brought this upon themselves” must also be forcefully rejected.
Given that many members of the current Israeli government have consistently promoted extremist and incendiary rhetoric, ideology and policy during their tenure, a strong tempering influence from the United States is vitally important.
As President Biden has made clear: The civilians of Gaza are not responsible for the actions of Hamas and must not be made to pay the price for their crimes.
Prevent a conflict spiral
Second: We must be clear-eyed that wars – once started – can be difficult to contain. Every effort must be made by the US government and all parties concerned to prevent the conflict from spiraling.
No matter how well planned, a large-scale invasion risks triggering a spiral of escalation that could lead to a multi-front war: Gaza in the south, Hezbollah in the north and explosive violence in the occupied West Bank. Other regional actors could be drawn in. Most unhelpfully, we hear right-wing forces in the United States – determined not to learn the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan – continuing to press for escalation with Iran.
The United States is rightly working urgently to prevent and deter regional escalation. We strongly support those diplomatic and other efforts.
J Street has also urged Israeli authorities to do more to stop a brutal and reprehensible surge in settler and military violence against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank – including over 120 violent settler attacks and 28 children killed – which risk triggering further chaos.
This is the moment for the United States to make clear that it expects Israel to intercede to prevent settler attacks against civilians, to ensure that live ammunition is not used against civilian protesters and to ensure security forces do not participate in revenge attacks against civilians.
Plan for the day after
Third: As former Marine and current Congressman Seth Moulton wrote for CNN: “The lesson America quickly learned in Iraq and Afghanistan was that you have to have a plan for the day after.”
If the Israeli military “simply kill a lot of Hamas terrorists and leave Gaza a smoldering mess,” he wrote, “they’ll have the same problem they do today” – and may succeed only in radicalizing more terrorists. It’s a lesson we learned painfully with both the insurgency in Iraq that metastasized as ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
“Nobody wants to see five-year-old Palestinian kids killed in the crossfire with Hamas, especially if their deaths only recruit more terrorists,” Moulton wrote. “And nobody wants to see five-year-old Israeli kids dying, in the same forever war, 20 years from today.”
The United States – as Israel’s central security partner – can and must use our influence to guide Israel’s leaders toward sober judgments, to protect the safety and freedoms of Israelis and Palestinians and to chart a better course forward.
What is the alternative?
In the view of many experts, the short-term tactical goal for Israel’s military should be a focused, targeted counterterrorism operation aimed squarely at the Hamas leadership and fighters responsible for the October 7 attack. Such an operation would aim to incapacitate Hamas, bring the perpetrators to justice and minimize civilian and IDF casualties by limiting the scope of ground operations.
In the next few days, I will share further specific thoughts on what the President could do to articulate a vision for the future that is realistic, principled and strategic.
As Israel grapples with ongoing grief and trauma, hostages remain in captivity, Israeli soldiers prepare for a possible ground operation and those with loved ones in Gaza remain terrified for their safety, our shared pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy voice is more important than ever in shaping the United States’ response.
We’ll continue to support and listen to each other as we share perspectives and ideas, striving for grace and respect. We’ll continue working to support communities on the ground in Israel and our pro-peace, pro-democracy allies in the region.
And we’ll continue to bring expert voices, nuanced analysis and considered policy recommendations to leaders in Washington.
A better future is still possible. J Street will continue to dedicate ourselves to the hard work necessary to get there.
Please, don’t hesitate to respond with your thoughts or questions.
Yours,
Jeremy Ben-Ami
President, J Street
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