Tag: gaza
Stevenson’s army, December 19
– US sets up a Red Sea task force
–Germany deploys troops abroad
– Election interference by several countries
– Reuters forecasts Trump foreign policy
– GOP voters support law-breaking
– Gaza hurts Biden with voters
– 118th Congress hasn’t done much
WaPo has new interactive showing DC area flood risks
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A Palestinian state yes, recognition now no
A bad idea is making the rounds in discussions of the Gaza war. People I respect are recommending that the United States formally recognize a Palestinian state.
I support the idea of a Palestinian state. But now is not the time for the US to recognize one. Doing so could have catastrophic consequences for President Biden in the 2024 election. Those who want to see him re-elected should lay off this premature idea and focus instead on a ceasefire.
The alleged diplomatic advantages are spurious
It is true that 139 other states have recognized Palestine. But that has made little difference. None of those recognitions has contributed an iota to the welfare of Palestinians or incentivized Israel to negotiate seriously. Nor would US recognition. It would however strain relations with Israel and reduce American leverage on Prime Minister Netanyahu. Even Israelis who want an early end to the Gaza war would not understand American recognition while Gaza is in chaos and the West Bank in nascent rebellion.
American recognition would not, as alleged, convince Palestinians “that the United States is finally matching its talk of peace with meaningful action.” So long Washington continues to veto UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire in addition to shipping massive amounts of arms to Israel, Palestinians will rightly perceive that America is supporting their adversary.
US recognition is not required to name an ambassador to deal directly with the Palestinians. Washington had such an ambassador to the Palestinians for decades before President Trump closed the consulate in Jerusalem that housed him. The US should name an envoy and station her in East Jerusalem.
Most Palestinans would not welcome a US effort to bolster the PA. Especially in the West Bank, where the PA has ruled for a long time without any democratic legitimacy. There Palestinians would regard US recognition as helping a decrepit and corrupt entity. Seventy-five per cent of West Bankers support Hamas control of Gaza (twice the percentage of Gazans!). Many Gazans would regard US recognition of the PA under current conditions as laughable, if any are still capable of laughing.
The domestic political consequences could be severe
Support for Israeli military action in the US was only 50% in November. Younger people, people of color, and Democrats are less supportive. A lot of Americans would support a ceasefire, but there is no evidence they would care much about diplomatic recognition.
Moreover, the post-war situation in Gaza will be challenging. Vast amounts of aid will be required even as Hamas remnants continue to create chaos. No one no one will be able to suppress the disorder entirely. If the PA is unable to handle Gaza–and there is no reason to believe it can–then Washington will have put its recognition chip on a losing proposition. Biden, whose approval numbers are low and declining, would not benefit from the perception he had erred. Recognition could provide the Republicans with a forceful critique and sway independents, now evenly split on the Gaza war, in the wrong direction.
The right approach is to await better conditions
Recognition should wait until after the war, renewal of the Palestinian Authority as a democratic entity, a return of relative calm to the West Bank, and relief of the inevitable suffering in Gaza. Once order is restored, recognition should be on the table, but not before. We can hope that by then Israelis will have chased Prime Minister Netanyahu from office and installed a government ready to deal with the renewed PA. That would open the door to recognition without opening the door to Donald Trump.
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Stevenson’s army, December 15
– US “officials” are making clear to the media that the Biden administration wants Israel to reduce the intensity and shorten the duration of its operations in Gaza. Here’s NYT version. And from WSJ. And from Axios. Israel seems to be resisting.
– CNN reports a DNI assessment — later confirmed by WaPo — that almost half Israeli air attacks have been with “dumb” bombs.
– Bulwark has detailed analysis of US views on Gaza war.
– Despite earlier reports of a work-around, Hungary vetoed additional EU aid to Ukraine at this time.
– NYT reports harsh Ukraine recruiting tactics
– AP explains the various US pots of money for Ukraine
On other issues– FP blasts Biden policy toward Venezuela.
– FP analyzes China’s actions in SCS
– National Security Archive releases collection on Carter Administration
-NYT has ticktock on SCOTUS on Dobbs decision
FYI, today is Bill of Rights Day, celebrating 1791 ratification of first ten amendments to the Constitution.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 13
– The Zelensky visit produced no breakthrough on Ukraine aid in DC. But FT says EU is looking for technical tricks to get around Orban veto of new aid.
– Politico reports declassified intelligence on Russian losses
– In private meeting with fundraisers, Biden sharply criticized Israel, referred to “indiscriminate bombing.”
– WSJ says Israel is flooding Gaza tunnels.
– In print edition, WaPo has long articles on problems in Ukraine offensive and many pages on the Discord leaks
– House China committee urges legal changes forcing higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Here’s the report.
– Politico says Trump wants deal with North Korea letting it keep nuclear weapons
– FYI, WH sent Congress latest war powers report
– Senate voted against forcing US troops from Syria.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 10
– NYT recounts how Israel agreed to Qatar’s financial support to Hamas in Gaza for years
– Mort Halperin recounts Kissinger’s lies to him. [Full disclosure: Halperin was my junior year tutor and later my boss in Policy Planning at State]
– State uses emergency authority to bypass Congress on weapons sale to Israel
– WSJ has background information on Hamas leader
– Kevin Drum explains the generational division over Israel
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 9
-Economist says Netanyahu isn’t the real leader of the war cabinet
– US & Guyana are conducting joint military exercises.
– Greece and Turkey make nice.
– NYT says Europe fears NATO withdrawal by Trump
– WSJ says Israel has plotted grid for Gaza
-Politico has a report on the meeting pressuring Tuberville
– SAIS’ James Mann has a piece about the myths Kissinger created about himself
– Two recent CRS reports: on FY2024 State/Foreign Ops appropriations and a big background report on IEEPA
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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