Tag: Georgia
Trump likes incompetence and chaos
Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, the projected Secretary of State and National Security Advisor respectively, are fig leaves. Trump proposed them first to hide the ugly reality that followed.
Lowering the bar
His aim is to name people who will make him seem normal. This is difficult. He is a rapist and convicted felon who improperly stored classified material and imperiled US security. As President, Trump cozied up to Putin and incited a riot against the 2020 election result. He ran his businesses in ways that infringed on legal requirements and drove them into bankruptcy.
In this context, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Matt Gaetz fit well.
Gabbard, the nominee for Director of National Intelligence, is also a Putin sycophant and flak for Syrian President Assad.
Hegseth, the Fox News nominee for Defense Secretary, is a Christian nationalist and womanizer. He has no visible qualifications for the job except service in the Army as a major. The US Army has more than 16,000 of those.
Kennedy, nominated to lead Health and Human Services, is a flake. His “Make America Healthy Again” website doesn’t bother with discussion of the issues he is interested in. It goes straight to selling swag. In his bio, it highlights his environmental activism, entirely out of tune with Trump. But he is an anti-vaccine activist as well, claiming that all he wants is good scientific data. But he ignores the excellent scientific data already available on vaccines.
Matt Gaetz has sex with underage women, some of whom he pays for the privilege. His nomination for Attorney General was worthy of Trump. Sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein claimed Trump made a sport of sleeping with his friends’ wives. Gaetz has now withdrawn his name. Maybe Trump will give him a position that doesn’t need confirmation.
Normally when a nomination doesn’t succeed a president will pick someone less prone to controversy. I suppose the choice of Pam Bondi, former Florida Attorney General, might be seen that way. But she is ethically challenged and may not stand up well under intense scrutiny.
Exaggerating what he can do
While lowering the bar for personnel, Trump is also boasting about the incredible things he will achieve. He aims to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. His billionaire friends will cut trillions in government expenditure. He will end the Ukraine war in 24 hours.
Much of this is not going to happen. Here too Trump is setting a bar. While on personnel he sets it low, on policy he sets it high. The moves he favors on immigrants and government expenditure will generate thousands of lawsuits. The stimulus to the legal profession will be unprecedented.
The result will be chaos, something Trump enjoys. He will use it to claim extraordinary powers for the presidency. He disdains democracy and seeks unfettered power. The current Supreme Court majority, which has already given him immunity from prosecution for official acts, will back him wholeheartedly.
Encouraging international chaos
On the foreign policy front, it is harder to predict the outcome. But let’s try.
If Trump ends military aid, Kyiv will have to negotiate an unsatisfactory outcome with Moscow. The result will be partition. Russia will keep most of the territory it occupies now. The Europeans will have to patrol a demilitarized zone. And rump Ukraine will face a prolonged period of instability as the Russians wage hybrid warfare against Kyiv.
Irredentist ambitions will explode worldwide. Serbia will aim to gain territory in the Balkans. China will continue its expansion in the East and South China Seas, and set its sights on Taiwan. Russia will try for Moldova and Georgia. India and Pakistan may go at it over Kashmir. Israel will annex whatever it wants of the West Bank and Gaza.
There are about 150 outstanding border disputes worldwide. Even if only a handful get worse, the international community will have a hard time managing them.
The President can impose tariffs without Congressional approval. They will re-ignite inflation in the US and have a devastating effect on the US and world economies. That will cause the Fed to slow the decline of interest rates, or maybe raise them again. Other countries will retaliate against US goods, slowing the US economy further. Even without the tariffs, the US expansion that started with Obama
A difficult four years
Trump will relish this chaos as well. But it is not good for the United States, which can barely manage one serious crisis at a time.
The current US expansion started during Obama’s presidency, in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Except for the COVID-19 recession Trump aggravated with an inept response to the epidemic, it has continued unabated since. Even without Trump’s chaos, the expansion would be unlikely to last much longer.
We are in for a difficult four years. Tighten you seat belt.
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Americans, welcome to the 4th Reich!
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, writes:
I hope I am wrong. But if Trump and his acolytes implement even 1/3 of the promises and projects he has set forth in Project 2025 and otherwise supported, the USA, as we knew it, will become a dying ember. He will sacrifice our honor, pride and principles on his transactional altar.
His isolationist foreign policy will relegate the US to a bit player to be ignored or pushed around.
Ukraine and Taiwan abandoned
Ukraine and Taiwan will be the first victims of his failure to stay resolute.
Imagine The Greatest Generation refusing to come to protect the sovereignty of European and Asian nations during World War II. Our nation would not have risen to the pinnacle of its success and power had our forefathers not accepted their responsibilities. They would have been guilty of sacrificing the lives of tens of millions of people due to sheer cowardice.
The ripple effect
Failure to back Ukraine and Taiwan will lead to further Russian encroachments. These will include Moldova, Georgia, and the Baltics. They will also affect Central Europe as well as Chinese control over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Our EU and Asian allies will lose all confidence in our nation. He will unchain Israel. The reaction by the surrounding countries will fan the flames of a regional conflict. Trump’s transactional approach will bring about another Balkan conflict leading to a Greater Serbia aligned with Russia.
Russia rescued
Putin and gang are breathing a huge sigh of relief. They are congratulating themselves for their flood of misinformation and disinformation pushing voters toward Trump. What a reversal of fortunes, just as Putin and Russia were facing economic and political disaster.
Some might welcome an end to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. But remember, that the Russia violated the terms of the Minsk Agreements of 2014-2015. Putin used that agreement as a temporary pause to relaunch his second invasion of Ukraine in 2021. Any future agreement would allow Russia to rebuild to attack not only Ukraine but also Moldova and Georgia.
The domestic agenda: (in)justice
For those more interested in Trump’s domestic agenda, read the provisions of Project 2025, which outlines his plans. They essentially would undermine the foundations of our democracy and economy.
– Perhaps the most venal proposal is to replace professional civil servants in the government with party hacks. This is the case in Russia, China, Hungary, and other authoritarian regimes. Trump will use executive authority to impose personnel in the Departments of Justice, State, and Defense as well as the FBI and National Security Agency. There will no longer be any professional objectivity. He will sacrifice to party loyalty, reminiscent of German Nazis and Russian/Chinese Communist Party control.
– Trump will use such control to persecute anyone who opposes him. These are the people he calls the “enemy within,” an oft used Nazi tactic in the 1930s and 1940s. He would go after Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, General Milley, and others. His likely pick for US Attorney General has already suggested that New York State Attorney General Trish James be sent to prison.
Trump is likely to replace Supreme Court Justice Thomas with Eileen Cannon, a judge for the District Court of Florida. She slow walked and created obstacles to Trump’s prosecution for illegal possession of classified documents. Trump may be able to walk away from his 34 cases of felony fraud as we as the charges of sexual assault. Equal justice before the law does not seem to apply to Trump.
Trump has said he will pardon those found guilty of federal crimes associated with the January 6 riot, which he fomented.
The domestic agenda: the economy
– The economy was one of the major reasons for Harris’ defeat, though the US economy out-performed all other major industrialized nations after the epidemic. The public focused however on short term inflation issues rather than the longer term picture.
The Trump economic policy will bring pain to all Americans. His tariffs will make you pay $2600 more per year for consumer goods. Not to mention the impact on our national debt.
The domestic agenda: immigration
If that doesn’t kill our economy, then his plan for mass deportations will. The immediate cost is some $80-250 billion a year, not to mention destroying labor required for agricultural fields, hospital care, and other lower level jobs. These folks also contribute to your Social Security. These costs, plus Trump tax cuts, will add trillions to the national budget and debt. How will he pay for it? Watch health, social security and education come under the hatchet! If you thought Covid was bad, wait until RFK Jr becomes Secretary of Health.
– Beware the presence of the “eminence grise” Elon Musk, whom Trump is expected to make his efficiency czar. Of course, efficiencies can and should be sought. However, with the fox in charge of the chicken coop, expect the Department of Education to be a victim, as well as Health and Welfare and Social Social Security.
– Directly related is my concern about the rise of plutocracy and the new oligarchs. Usually, we think of Russian oligarchs and their outsize influence on national politics. The Supreme Court ruling, Citizens United, empowered the ultra wealthy by allowing unlimited money to go into Political Action Committees. This directly undermines the principle of one person, one vote. With few exceptions, the oligarchs drive economic decisions without due concern to the average citizen. Musk now censors opinions on X that don’t match his views. With the high tariffs on China, his Tesla stocks will sky rocket.
The domestic agenda: society and environment
– Women, minorities and youth will be relegated to second class citizens. Women have fought back and won some abortion case issues in some states. Yet the misogyny and racism of MAGA will grow and The Handmaiden’s Tale might not be just an apocalyptic story.
– Let us not forget the environment. Trump will reverse whatever progress we have made. Air, land and water pollution will get worse, affecting our health and that of the rest of the world.
Angrier and more aggressive
Of course, I could be wrong. Trump might listen to his better angels. He might negotiate peace agreements in the Middle East and Balkans. He might actually compromise on some domestic issues and be inclusive of others.
But forgive me, if I doubt it. The doubts are based on his previous performance, which relied on divide and rule, attacking “others,” and undermining the rule of law and foundations of our government. He has gotten angrier, more aggressive, and more racist.
I, therefore conclude with a line from the Monk TV series. I may be wrong, but I don’t think so.
There will be buyer’s remorse. Americans, welcome to the Fourth Reich!
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Putin’s ugly war of choice
Today the de facto authorities in the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine are ordering the mass evacuation of civilians to Russia. Supposedly in response to the threat of a Ukrainian attack, this is classic self-cleansing. Its purpose is to create a free-fire zone without a friendly civilian population and to cast the adversary as an ethnic cleanser.
Putin is determined
President Putin appears determined to use force once again in Ukraine. He succeeded eight years ago in the occupation and annexation of Crimea as well as his use of Russian and proxy forces to establish rebel zones in Donbas. Why not try again? With luck, Ukrainian resistance might collapse altogether and allow Moscow to set up a puppet government in Kyiv. More likely, Russian forces will succeed in extending their area of control along the Sea of Azov, perhaps going as far as Crimea.
In the meanwhile, NATO will be reinforcing its forces in the eastern-most member states, something Russia says it doesn’t want. They will also be trying to decide on the sanctions required to respond to Russian aggression. Putin is betting the Alliance will split on that issue and reduce the sanctions to the lowest common denominator. Net result: a NATO military presence that doesn’t really threaten Russia and a falling out among Russia’s adversaries.
Europe whole and free in smithereens
Once the smoke clears, the idea of “Europe whole and free” will be in smithereens. A new curtain will have descended. It won’t be made of iron. On one side will be Lukashenko, the Russian proxies in Moldova and Georgia, Armenia and the central Asian ‘stans. On the other side will be NATO and EU members. Others will either need to choose which sphere of influence they wish to align with or reinvigorate the idea of non-alignment that Serbia and others already champion.
NATO expansion is still possible
It is anyone’s guess how many people will be killed in Putin’s effort to convince the Americans that Ukraine can’t be allowed to decide whether it wants to join NATO. Putin already knows that Ukrainian membership is impossible now and for the foreseeable future, because all of NATO’s 30 member states would need to approve. I doubt even a majority would favor Ukraine’s accession at this point.
But that doesn’t mean NATO won’t expand. Russian behavior in the Baltic and aggression in Ukraine is already well on the way to convincing Sweden and Finland that NATO membership would be a good idea. Both are well-equipped and trained. But neither has the means to defend itself on its own. The NATO door may well be open to both well-ordered and consolidated democracies.
Net results
Putin has succeeded in getting America’s attention and reasserting Russia’s claim to superpower status. The invasion may well split the Alliance on the issue of sanctions. Ukraine will be divided at best and subjugated at worst. But NATO forces will be far stronger and closer to Russia after this war than before it. Moscow will be saddled with an enormous reconstruction burden as well as sanctions.
The biggest known unknown is how Russians will react. This war will belie Putin’s claim of brotherhood with Ukrainians and undermine the Russian economy. Moscow has tried hard to hide the body bags coming back from its military ventures in Syria and Libya. But Russians are not supportive of war in Ukraine and hiding the body bags may be much harder in a ground war of these dimensions. A Russian told me long ago: “We support our czars until we don’t. Then we get rid of them quickly.” Putin’s ugly war of choice could be ugly not only for Ukraine and NATO, but also for him.
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Make Putin watch his back
Alexander Vindman is the former National Security Council official who gave vital incriminating testimony in Trump’s first impeachment. He blew the whistle on the President’s phone call with President Zelensky of Ukraine, in which Trump sought dirt on then candidate Joe Biden. Now a doctoral student at SAIS, Vindman has interesting, if discouraging, things to say about Russian intentions with respect to Ukraine:
Not a lot of good options in Ukraine
Vindman believes Russia is likely to invade Ukraine, with the aim of keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence and making it a failed state, one that cannot offer a democratic model for those who want to escape Moscow’s tentacles. Sanctions he thinks won’t have much more impact than in the past, because Russia has hardened its economy against them. In addition, Putin controls a $620 billion sovereign wealth fund, and China will help cushion the blow.
The best military hope lies in NATO countries. The US could station more troops in NATO countries near Ukraine. They, especially those on the eastern front that Russia threatens, could in turn train the Ukrainians and perhaps deploy troops and equipment to help the Ukrainian army defend against attack.
But Putin is vulnerable elsewhere
Vindman ignores Putin’s vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine. One of these was dramatically apparent in Kazakhstan over the last few days, when protesters challenged President Tokayev. The protests quickly turned violent. Tokayev sought Russian help to protect vital installations and ordered his forces to shoot to kill.
The Russians did not send a big force–supposedly only 2500 troops–but Putin is also saddled with defending his annexation of Crimea, besieged Belarusan President Lukashenko, secessionist provinces in Georgia, and the homicidal Syrian President Assad, not to mention maintaining Russian forces in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The Russians are also active through proxy forces in Libya and the Central African Republic. They are building bases in half a dozen African countries. Russian empire-building is reaching further than even Moscow’s Soviet-era ambitions.
A crisis in any one of these places could bring a halt to Putin’s ambitions in Ukraine.
Including at home
Putin is also vulnerable at home. While he has acquired de facto autocratic powers, he is less popular than once he was. Corruption is his Achilles heel. The Kremlin has murdered one potential rival and poisoned, then imprisoned, another. A free and fair election could well do Putin in, so he won’t allow that. He also faces local ethnic and religious minority resistance to his increasingly nationalist and chauvinist rule.
If the Americans want to protect Ukraine, they will need not only to beef up its defenses and undermine Russia’s economy, but also figure out how to exploit Putin’s political and military vulnerabilities beyond Ukraine.
Make Putin watch his back.
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Want to make an impression? Send the airborne
Last month’s threat by Serb political boss Milorad Dodik is fading into the holiday mist. No one who watches Bosnian poitics should relax. He has made it clear his goal is de facto secession of Republika Srpska. This regional entity’s authority extends to 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territory.
Dodik is moving small step by small step. Each time he slices the salami to get closer to what he wants. Last month the RS National Assembly convened to begin planning for withdrawal starting in six months from Bosnia’s security, justice, and taxation institutions. These were all established in the aftermath of the 1992-95 war that ended in the Dayton peace agreements. American efforts “to walk Bosnia back from the cliff” at least made Dodik stop at the edge.
The plan is to eviscerate the minimal Bosnian state
He is unlikely to step much farther back or to declare independence. Dodik’s plan is to eviscerate the Bosnian state, minimal though it is. He wants the RS to withdraw from Sarajevo’s vital institutions under a veil of legislative approval. He would then be all-powerful and unaccountable in his own fief. Failing that, he wants his threat of secession to prevent any further strengthening of Sarajevo governance.
Russia will support Dodik’s moves and try to protect him. Moscow is already denying the authority of the High Representative in Bosnia, who is responsible for civilian implementation of the Dayton agreements. Serbian President Vucic will be more circumspect, as he fears EU and US disapproval. But his minions, including Interior Minister Vulin, cheer more openly. The RS is an important component of what they call the “Serbian world.” That would be a Greater Serbian state incorporating neighboring Serb populations.
The ethnic authoritarian paladin
Dodik is the embodiment of the ethnic authoritarian ideal. He started political life as a relative moderate in the Bosnian context. But he has become a denier of crimes (including genocide) the RS committed during the 1990s war. He is now a champion of Serb exceptionalism, a subservient puppet of Moscow, and a deeply corrupted pocketer of ill-gotten gains. The Dayton agreements divide the Bosnian pie along ethnic lines. That reduces political competition and incentivizes predatory behavior. Most people in Washington and Brussels understand that Dodik is irredeemable. So their diplomats work hard instead to get Serbian President Vucic to restrain him, offering mostly carrots and few sticks.
That is no longer working as well as once it did. Like his genocidaire predecesssor Radovan Karadzic, Dodik regards himself as a political competitor to Vucic in Belgrade, not just a provincial party chief in Banja Luka. The time is coming for a showdown between these Serb paladins.
Vucic is unquestionably more powerful, but Dodik is more useful to the Russians. They would regard de facto RS secession as a useful precedent and bargaining chip for breakaway provinces in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Moscow would also enjoy derailing a Western triumph of the 1990s unipolar moment: the negotiated end of the Bosnian war.
What is to be done?
Dodik is making it impossible for the US and EU to continue ignoring his moves towards de facto independence. The question is: what can they do about it? Next time he slices the salami, how should they react?
First, the EU and US need to nullify any decisions in the RS Assembly that contradict the Dayton accords and subsequent decisions of the High Representative. This the HiRep can do with the stroke of a pen. But then what? How do his decisions get enforced?
Once upon a time, the HiRep would not have hesitated to remove Dodik from office. But is that any longer feasible? Another possibility is his arrest for insurrection against the Bosnian state, of which he is blatantly guilty. But Bosnia’s prosecutors seem unwilling and likely incapable of doing that.
The US and EU will need to act
If nothing can be done inside Bosnia, then the burden falls to Washington, Brussels, and European capitals (if the EU fails to act jointly). They will need to levy punishing sanctions on Dodik personally, all members of the RS Assembly who vote for withdrawal from Bosnian institutions, and the RS institutionally, including an end to all World Bank and IMF as well as bilateral assistance and access to international financial markets. If the RS has de facto seceded from Bosnia, it shoud not benefit from grants or loans available to its sovereign. It would be rank hypocrisy to allow any international financiing or official development assistance to reach the RS.
There are other possible moves. Brussels and Washington could shut down RS representational offices. The international military presence, EUFOR, could move troops to the vital northeast town of Brcko while the UK and US deploy NATO troops there, to prevent any effort by either Sarajevo or Banja Luka to seize it. Want to make an impression? The British and Americans could arrive in the hundreds by parachute outside Banja Luka, in a NATO training exercise.
Dodik and any other politicians supporting de facto secession could be barred from Sarajevo and any requirements for Serb approval of Bosnian government actions there could be abrogated. Any funding for the RS from Sarajevo could stop. Bosnia could revert to its pre-war constitution, or devise a new one that erases the RS as well as the Federation and its cantons, relying on municipalities for local governance.
Dodik should not be ignored
This is an illustrative, not an exhaustive, list of options, not recommendations. The main point is that Brussels and Washington should no longer downplay or ignore Dodik’s moves. If they do, patriotic Bosnians, who were the main victims of the 1992-95 war, will take matters into their own hands, seizing Brcko before Dodik does.
That too, would mark a failure of Dayton, but one that would preserve the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as its multi-ethnicity. For anyone thinking democracy is a preferable system of government, it would be better than secession by genocide-denying political and ideological successors to Radovan Karadzic, bent on ethnic authoritarian rule with Moscow’s support and on creation of Milosevic’s Greater Serbia.
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Getting back to the nuclear deal is the best option, the sooner the better
Iran is arguably already a threshold nuclear state. American withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka Iran nuclear deal) in 2018 has allowed Tehran to enrich uranium to 20%, develop more advanced centrifuges, and likely make other technological process. It is now well within one year of being able to fabricate a nuclear weapon. What difference does that make?
Not much, yet. Possession of nuclear weapons is not a major factor in today’s geopolitics, because they are unusable. As Richard Burt put it a decade ago:
The currency of power has changed from [nuclear] military power to economic, technological competitiveness.
http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1230/the-new-geopolitics-why-nuclear-weapons-no-longer-serve-us-interests
Israel’s growing power in the Middle East is not due to its nuclear weapons, which represent a guarantee of its existence rather than a means of projecting power. Arab states are now cozying up to Israel because of its economic and technological prowess, built on top of its military strength. Nuclear weapons have given Pakistan a means of deterring a conventional Indian invasion but have not made Pakistan India’s equal even within South Asia. India is by far the greater economic and technological power. Russia’s resurgence as a great power is not based on its nuclear weapons, which Moscow possessed in the 1990s when it was an economic basket case, but rather on its economic recovery and willingness to project conventional military force into Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria as well as hybrid warfare in the Balkans, Belarus, and elsewhere.
Nuclear weapons are still important for deterrence, but they do little more than guarantee mutual destruction.
So what’s wrong with Iran getting nuclear weapons, or the technology to make and deliver them within a few months time? The answer lies in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, not in Israel. Iran becoming a threshold nuclear state will inspire, if it has not already, its regional rivals to do likewise. Both President Erdogan and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have both said as much. I’d guess Turkey is technologically capable on its own. Saudi Arabia may need to buy experts and technology abroad, but it is capable of doing so. Once four countries in the Middle East go nuclear, the risks of intentional or accidental nuclear warfare rise exponentially.
Bilateral deterrence works reasonably well, judging by experience not only with the Soviet Union/Russia and the United States but also with India and Pakistan, India and China, as well as China and the US. Multilateral deterrence poses much more complex issues, especially with countries that lack second strike capabilities and are geographically proximate. Preparation for launch of Iranian missiles that might (or might not) carry nuclear weapons could trigger responses not only from Israel, which in its submarines has second strike capability, but also from Turkey or Saudi Arabia, depending on the crisis du jour. Miscalculation is a key factor in war. The odds of a mistake are much higher the more countries are involved.
The question remains: can the world manage with Iran as a nuclear-threshold or even a nuclear country? The answer is yes, at least for a while, but that circumstance will not be in Iran’s favor. If it fails to negotiate a return to the JCPOA, the US will tighten its economic sanctions and apply them with more vigor. Israel will continue its “dirty war” of cyber attacks and assassinations of Iranian scientists. Europe and the UK will go along with the Americans, as their financial institutions and companies have too much to lose by displeasing Washington. Moscow won’t want Iran to go nuclear, but its companies may well be prepared to surreptiously help Tehran evade sanctions. Beijing may do likewise, as it has much to gain from acquiring Iranian oil at sanctions-induced relatively cheap prices.
The negotiations on return to the JCPOA adjourned Friday without progress and bitter words from both Washington and Tehran. Failure of the negotiations, whose aim is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state, will thus aggravate East/West tensions and vastly complicate US relations with both Russia and China, which won’t take kindly to the tightening of sanctions. Iran’s economy, already well on the way to ruin, will deteriorate further. Israel will find its dirty war progressively more difficult and less effective as the Iranians learn how to counter it. Washington will want try to restrain Ankara and Riyadh from acquiring all the technology needed for nuclear weapons but will find it increasingly difficult to do so.
Getting back to the nuclear deal is the best option. The sooner the better.
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