Tag: Germany
Europe needs to unify and toughen up, fast
Yes, the US is trying to exclude Europe from an issue of vital European interest. No, it is not the first time.
Why Washington excludes Europe
My personal familiarity with this apparently undiplomatic behavior dates from the Dayton agreements that end the Bosnian war. The Europeans were present, but excluded from the key decisions. Holbooke was convinced that they would only complicate things and slow the negotiations. So he ordered Bob Gallucci to get them involved in an endless discussion of the international police force. Should it have executive authority, as the Americans wanted, or not, as the European insisted?
The tactic worked. Only the Germans, who worked bilaterally with the Americans without EU cover, had any impact at Dayton. Holbrooke encouraged Bonn, to prevent a united European consensus against him. The other Europeans had no significant role. The British and French complained bitterly without effect. But they and the rest of the EU were left holding the bag–they paid for much of the reconstruction.
Something similar had happened a few years earlier in the reunification of Germany. The Americans agreed to a 2+4 (two Germanies plus the four occupying powers) format for the diplomacy. But Washington then prevented most important issues from getting on the 2+4 agenda. The format was a fig leaf for US and (West) German decisions.
I’m sure there are many other examples.
The Ukraine negotiations
The Americans are trying the same trick now in the Ukraine negotiations. They intend to work directly with the Russians, excluding not only the UK and EU but also Ukraine. Washington wants to avoid the complications and delays dealing with them would cause. It again intends to leave the Europeans holding the bag. They will be expected not only to pay for the reconstruction but also to field peacekeepers.
The Americans have already made one big mistake. They have telegraphed what they are up to. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s scolded the Europeans at NATO. President Trump’s undertook his talk with Russian President Putin without consultation with allies. The Russian and American Foreign Ministers are meeting this week in Riyadh. Vice President Vance’s offensive talk at the Munich Security Conference told the Europeans all they needed to know.
The US is moving to conclude the Ukraine war on Moscow’s terms. That means surrendering Ukrainian territory for peace. The Americans want, as they have for several presidencies, to pivot away from the defense of Europe. They are also playing to their domestic audience, some of which is Russophilic and anti-European.
What the Europeans need to do now
Amply alerted, the Europeans are reacting quicker than usual. Key states are meeting in Paris today to plan what to do. Here is what I would suggest:
- They agree to monitor a peace settlement only if it in principle preserves Ukraine’s pre-2014 sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- They supply Ukraine with all the weapons and intelligence it needs to win, substituting for any shortfalls from the US.
- Europeans should examine any agreement reached without their presence on its merits, but with prejudice.
- They deploy trainers and technicians to Ukraine to help with both military and civilian tasks.
The Americans won’t like this. They may even try something like what Holbrooke did: convince a big country like Germany or Poland to cooperate bilaterally. That would block a European consensus. But so long as Europe continues to insist on point 1 above, they won’t be stuck with a bad deal.
Trump is different
The difference between Holbrooke’s exclusion of the Europeans and Trump’s is significant. President Clinton, Holbrooke’s boss, backed the NATO alliance and was sympathetic to the EU, which then included the UK. After Dayton, there was no need for a continuing rift between Europe and the US. The agreements reached accorded with European preferences. The rift ended quickly and Europe carried a big burden post-war.
The same won’t happen with Trump. He is unsympathetic to alliances in general, NATO in particular, and the EU most of all. The Americans are pushing for an agreement that will encourage future Russian aggression. If Europe is going to punch at least its weight in future trans-Atlantic issues, it needs to unify and toughen up, fast.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 19
– US sets up a Red Sea task force
–Germany deploys troops abroad
– Election interference by several countries
– Reuters forecasts Trump foreign policy
– GOP voters support law-breaking
– Gaza hurts Biden with voters
– 118th Congress hasn’t done much
WaPo has new interactive showing DC area flood risks
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, October 9
Of the many commentaries about the conflict, these so far stood out to me:
Tom Friedman in NYT
David Ignatius in WaPo
Reuters report on Hamas deceptions
Although Iran denies it and the US can’t confirm it, Hamas bragged to WSJ that Iran had helped plot the Gaza attacks.
In other news, the House Appropriations chairman says the cuts promised by McCarthy are off the table now that he has been deposed.
And note the strength of AfD in the German elections.
Better late than never,I wanted to note that USGLC put out a good comparison of House & Senate versions of the State-Foreign Ops bill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
With balance and proportionality for all
I don’t know why this fine letter from the chairs of the US, German, and UK legislative foreign relations committees appears in the Kyiv Post before other outlets, but what it suggests would be a good restart in the right direction:
Miroslav Lajčák
Special Representative to the Western Balkans
European Union
Gabriel Escobar
Special Representative to the Western Balkans
United States Department of State
The Lord Peach GBE KCB DL
Special Envoy to the Western Balkans
House of Lords
Your Excellencies,
We write to raise our concerns over the current policy of the EU, U.S. and UK towards Serbia–Kosovo relations. We believe that recent events and crises have highlighted flaws within our collective approach and would request it is reconsidered.
Whilst our focus must remain on the normalisation of relations and continued Euro-Atlantic pathway for both Serbia and Kosovo, the recent unrest requires all parties to renew focus on de-escalation and deterrence.
The boycott of the Municipal elections by Kosovan Serbs on 23rd April, subsequent attack on KFOR soldiers on 29th May and arbitrary detention of Kosovan police officers by Serbian authorities on 14th June all point toward a rapidly deteriorating situation which not only threatens the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue, but regional peace itself. Recent discoveries of arms caches in northern Kosovo and reports of continued weapons smuggling across the Serbia-Kosovo border highlight the risks of further escalations.
Kosovo is a sovereign country and functioning democracy. This fact should form the basis for our
collective policy towards the current crisis. Attempts to disrupt democratic elections in Kosovo by Serbia must be criticised publicly as foreign interference with tangible measures implemented to hold them accountable if they continue to undermine free and fair elections. This will help to facilitate future elections with full participation from all communities present in the northern Municipalities. We must exercise deterrence diplomacy if the current crisis is to be resolved, the EU-facilitated dialogue is to yield positive results, and the implementation of the Ohrid Agreement is respectfully adhered to.
We are asking for balance and proportionality to return in dealing with Kosovo and Serbia.
Kosovo has faced significant repercussions following the efforts by Mayors to enter their offices in Northern Kosovo. Kosovo must coordinate with KFOR in the future to prevent escalations. But the lack of pressure placed on Serbia following the arbitrary detention of three Kosovan police officers and failure to hold to account those responsible for attacks on KFOR highlights the current lack of even-handedness in addressing such flash points.
We do note the recent sanctioning by the US Government of Aleksandar Vulin, head of the Serbian Security and Information Agency (BIA).
The current approach is not working. We would ask that the international community learns from our past and ensure we do not adopt a Belgrade-centred policy for the Balkans. We also ask that you consider adopting a policy of deterrence diplomacy to prevent further aggravation of the security and political situation in the north of Kosovo, with balance and proportionality guiding any statements and any punishments or sanctions issued and that those who do up-hold the rule of law and democracy are not scolded.
Signed,
Senator Bob Menendez
Chair
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
United States Senate
United States of America
Michael Roth
Chair
Committee on Foreign Affairs
Bundestag
Germany
Alicia Kearns MP
Chair
Foreign Affairs Committee
House of Commons
United Kingdom
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, July 11
– NYT sees Biden playing the long game to restore balance in US-China relations
– WaPo tells how Biden at al. got Erdogan to agree to admit Sweden to NATO
– US today said Turkey would get F16s [It’s curious that the Biden people aren’t — yet — claiming credit which they probably deserve.]
– SAIS Prof Mary Sarotte says German model won’t work for Ukraine in NATO
– Ed Luttwak also has an analysis of the Ukraine war.
– House Rules Committee is deciding which of 1400 amendments will be allowed for House NDAA debate. DOD weighs in with SAP [statement of administration policy] on items already in the bill.
– I was struck by Peter Beinart’s discussion of Israel’s long term options, and especially by Finance Minister Smotrich’s 2017 master plan as well as his recent comments.
– I was dismayed by the Gallup poll showing a further deep drop in US confidence in higher education.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, July 7
– The Biden Administration is trying to get around the Constitution’s delegation of trade powers to Congress by making deals and then asking Congress to approve.
– And the House seems willing to oblige, by passing a law allowing it.
– BTW, USMCA hasn’t worked as promised [The story is truncated because neither I nor SAIS wants to pay $5000+ per year for Politico Pro]
– The Supreme Court is making law behind the scenes with its Shadow Docket.
– And news coverage of the Court misses key developments.
– CFR members are backchanneling with Russia
– GOP does want to send US troops into Mexico.
– Walter Pincus sees culture wars in the US military
-DOD wants to block Chinese & Russian influence over academia.
– Tel Aviv police chief charges political interference.
– Germany cuts all but defense.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
