Tag: Germany
Stevenson’s army, June 22
– While the national security adviser writes in WSJ that “no formal announcement has been made,” he then explains that US troops will leave Germany and why.
-NYT explains the lapses in vetting that allowed the Saudi pilot to kill in Pensacola.
— NYT also explains how Amb. Grenell seized control of Kosovo policy.
-Bolton blames many policies on “the split between Trump and Trump.”
–Bolton has more harsh words in ABC interview. Transcript here.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Xi/Bismarck
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson, of Stevenson’s Army fame, distributed this comment today. While I disagree in general on industrial policy, which is a trap we should allow the Chinese to fall into, R&D and protection of intellectual property are certainly important.
Stimulated by a student paper which I hope will eventually be published, I see that there are valuable ways of thinking about US-Chinese relations that go beyond our current focus on things like “the Thucydides Trap” or “a new Cold War.” One of the flaws in these popular analogies is that they quickly lead inexorably to self-fulfilling prophecies, the ill-fitting anti-Soviet playbook, or even nuclear war.
Other ways of looking at the US-Chinese competition include rivalries in Europe in the 18th and 19th centuries. The most optimistic and least applicable analogy is the peaceful British-American transition detailed in Kori Schake’s Safe Passage. Another example is the British-French rivalry following the Seven Years’ War in 1763. French officials consciously adopted a policy to “enfeeble” the British, first by strengthening their continental alliances and then by trying to dismember the British empire, starting with support for the American rebels. That worked – until the costs of that global war and other domestic problems triggered a revolution in Paris.
I’m especially intrigued by a third example: the British-German rivalry in the several decades before the First World War. I was aware of the military arms race between the two countries but needed reminding of the much greater breadth of the competition. Three Princeton economists show how Germany sought to leap ahead of Britain by promoting national technologies, using financial tools, blunt tariffs, and even massive infrastructure projects like the Berlin-to-Baghdad railway, which would have ended Berlin’s reliance on the Suez Canal. [A German geographer coined the “silk road” term.]
Consciously or not, China already seems to be copying Bismarckian Germany’s multi-pronged approach, competing with America in trade, technology, finance, and infrastructure, as well as alliances and weaponry. I worry that the United States has been narrowly focused on military capabilities and espionage, while giving insufficient attention to other technology matters and broader diplomatic and economic relations. My takeaway is that we need a deliberate industrial policy including large government R&D expenditures and targeted technology trade measures.
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How the UN serves US interests
The Center for Strategic and International Studies June 13 hosted a panel on “US Interest and Leadership in the United Nations” featuring Catherine Bertini, former Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme, and Bill Richardson, former Governor of New Mexico and former US Ambassador to the United Nations. Daniel F. Runde, Senior Vice President and William A. Schreyer Chair and Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development, moderated.
Asked why the US should keep investing in and care about the UN and what the UN does for the US, Bertini said the UN has a responsibility for peace and security. Given the US veto power in the Security Council, Washington has a lot of leverage to pursue American interests. Richardson made a case for multilateralism, saying the US needs international support to advance American goals. With rising populism and anti-institutionalism, bipartisan support is needed to maintain the UN, which surveys show a substantial number of Americans support.
Due to member states (the US included) not paying some or all of their dues, the UN is in a financial crisis. If the US doesn’t pay UN dues it loses leverage and sets a bad example for other nations, who also refuse to pay, causing more harm to US interests in the long run. An audience member pointed out that when the US paid its peacekeeping dues for 8 years straight reforms were made, many peacekeeping missions were completed successfully, and troops could be withdrawn with a solid exit strategy.
Runde asked if the UN is a vehicle for burden sharing, which Bertini affirmed. Washington pays 22% of regular dues and 28% of peacekeeping operations. The peacekeeping operations are vital and decided on by the Security Council. The benefit for the US is that the troops on the ground are not Americans. It would cost the US eight times as much if they were all American soldiers.
Runde listed several common critiques of the UN such as anti-Israel moves, corruption, the human rights commission, and millions of dollars in unpaid parking tickets by UN officials in New York. Richardson said the answer is not to focus on the negatives but to work on marketing and politics, especially aimed at the younger generations. Changing the system right away isn’t going to work, therefore the focus should be on the positives instead of individually rebutting each critique.
Bertini agreed, saying that while some critiques are valid they are only a small piece of the picture. The UN also saves the lives of children, helps feed people, and protects refugees. The UN is also involved in many things such as food safety, copyright law, and postal rules that many people never think about but are part of the international social order.
Richardson also pointed out that UN sanctions brought North Korea to the negotiating table and that the UN World Food Program remains an important humanitarian link that could lead North Korea to reform. Called upon from the audience by Runde, former State Department official Pat Kennedy mentioned that issues such as unpaid parking tickets in New York are often overstated in tabloid media.
Richardson suggested that both a lack of US public understanding of the UN and a perception around the world that Washington dominates the P5 cause lack of support for the UN. He suggests the UN needs more women and people from underrepresented regions in leadership positions at the same time as an updated selection and transition process to ensure that qualified people are hired. Bertini agrees that currently support for transition from one official to another is lacking. Richardson also suggests expanding the Security Council to include Germany and Japan as permanent members without veto power and revamping the rotation system for the regional spots on the UNSC.
Her is a full video of the event:
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Peace Picks May 27-June 2
- The Role of Parliament in Today’s Britain|Tuesday, May 28th|9:45am-11:15am|Brookings Institution|Falk Auditorium 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
On May 28, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow for a discussion of Parliament’s role in politics and policy at a pivotal time for one of the United States’ closest allies. The past year has seen a series of extraordinary developments in British politics, with the House of Commons at the center of it all. Following repeated parliamentary defeats for the government’s Brexit agreement with the European Union, the country’s scheduled departure from the EU has been delayed until October 31 and elections for the European Parliament will be held on May 23.
Brookings President John R. Allen will introduce Speaker Bercow. Following the speaker’s remarks, Thomas Wright, director of Brookings’s Center on the United States and Europe, will moderate a conversation with Bercow and Amanda Sloat, Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe. Questions from the audience will follow the discussion.
This event is part of the Brookings – Robert Bosch Foundation Transatlantic Initiative, which aims to build up and expand resilient networks and trans-Atlantic activities to analyze and work on issues concerning trans-Atlantic relations and social cohesion in Europe and the United States.
2. The Arms Control Landscape|Wednesday, May 29th|8:45am-11:00am|Hudson Institute|1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004|Register Here
Hudson Institute will host the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, Jr., for a discussion on Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons. Lt. Gen. Ashley will provide keynote remarks and engage in a discussion with Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah Heinrichs. This will be followed by a panel of senior government officials who will discuss the global landscape for arms control.
Speakers:
Lt. Gen. Robert P. Ashley, Jr., Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Dr. James H. Anderson, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities, U.S. Department of Defense
Tim Morrison, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Biodefense, National Security Council (NSC)
Thomas DiNanno, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense Policy, Emerging Threats, And Outreach, Bureau Of Arms Control, Verification And Compliance, U.S. Department of State
3. A Conversation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dunford|Wednesday, May 29th| 10:30am-11:30am |Brookings Institution|Saul/Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC| Register Here
During his distinguished tenure as 19th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—the nation’s highest-ranking military officer—General Joseph Dunford has been a key force at the center of America’s defense policy. He has helped redirect U.S. strategic attention to the challenges posed by great power competition, while also remaining vigilant against threats from the Korean Peninsula to the Persian Gulf and broader Middle East, and addressing rapidly evolving military technologies as well as other challenges.
On May 29, Brookings will host General Dunford for a discussion with on the national security landscape facing America, the state of the nation’s armed forces, and key defense choices for the future, moderated by Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon.
Questions from the audience will follow their conversation.
4. EU Elections 2019: The Future of the European Project|Wednesday, May 29th |12:00pm-2:00pm|Atlantic Council|1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council on Wednesday, May 29, 2019, from 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. for a conversation on “EU Elections 2019: The Future of the European Project.”
In the wake of the 2019 EU elections, the Future Europe Initiative will host a number of experts to discuss their insights on the results. They will provide analysis on the election results, the outcome on individual nations and regions within the EU, and the impact on Europe and the European project as a whole.
Mr. Antoine Ripoll, the Representative of the EU Parliament in Washington, DC, will provide opening remarks with Dr. Frances G. Burwell, Distinguished Fellow with the Future Europe Initiative at the Atlantic Council, moderating the conversation.
Additional speakers will include Dr. Emiliano Alessandri of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Dr. Célia Belin of The Brookings Institution, Ms. Katerina Sokou of Kathimerini and SKAI TV, and Mr. Bart Oosterveld of the Atlantic Council.
To share the perspective on the ground, Mr. Jeremy Cliffe of the Economist and Ms. Sophia Besch of the Centre for European Reform will join us via webcast from Brussels and Berlin respectively.
5. A New Opening for Peace in Ukraine?|Wednesday, May 29th|2:00pm-4:00pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036| Register Here
After five years of war, the conflict in Ukraine is effectively stalemated. Join Carnegie for a timely conversation on whether the arrival of a new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, can help break the deadlock. How should the Trump administration and its European allies respond to this new political reality and continued provocative Russian actions in eastern Ukraine?
U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Amb. Kurt Volker will deliver a keynote address, followed by a panel discussion with leading experts and former government officials.
Travel for participants in this event was made possible with the support of the Embassies of Lithuania and Poland.
Panelists:
Charles Kupchan, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and Professor of international affairs at Georgetown University
Marek Menkiszak, Head of the Russia Department at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, Poland.
Oxana Shevel, Associate Professor in Political Science, Tufts University
Amb. Petras Vaitienkūnasis, former Foreign Minister of Lithuania and Ambassador to Ukraine (2010 to 2014), Adviser to the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council
Moderator:
Andrew S. Weiss, James Family chair and Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
6. Russia’s Resurgence in the Middle East: How does US Policy Meet the Challenge?|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm|Atlantic Council||1030 15thSt NW, 12thFloor, Washington, DC 20005|Register Here
Russia is once again a major player in the Middle East. Moscow has notably backed the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while it has a growing footprint in Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf. Russia’s return to the region has posed significant challenges for transatlantic policymaking in this era of renewed great-power competition. The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security will bring together a panel of experts to discuss Russia’s growing role in the region and its economic, political, and security implications. This event is intended to qualify as a widely-attended gathering under the Executive Branch and Congressional gift rules.
Introduced by:
William F. Wechsler, Director, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Keynote address by:
Kathryn Wheelbarger, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, US Department of Defense
Panelists:
Mark N. Katz, Professor, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University
Becca Wasser, Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation
7. How to Advance Inclusive Peace Processes: Mobilizing Men as Partners for Women, Peace and Security|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm-3:30pm|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
Efforts to develop more inclusive peace processes are making progress. Yet, 20 years after the passage of U.N. Security Resolution 1325 on women, peace, and security, very few women are currently part of formal peace processes. This gap is exemplified by the recent struggles of Afghan women to be included in peace talks and U.N. reports that showed between 1990 and 2017, women constituted only 2 percent of mediators, 8 percent of negotiators, and 5 percent of witnesses and signatories in major peace processes. A new initiative from Our Secure Future, “Mobilizing Men as Partners for Women, Peace and Security,” seeks to remedy this by calling on men in gatekeeping positions throughout the defense, diplomacy, development, civil society, faith-based, and business sectors to commit to ensuring women are an equal part of peace processes and decision making.
Join the U.S. Institute of Peace for an event exploring how men in leadership positions are organizing as partners to identify, encourage, and mobilize collective voices in the support of women’s engagement in the pursuit of peace. By bringing global citizens more fully into this campaign, these stakeholders can step away from the sidelines of the women, peace, and security movement and more fully stand alongside—and empower—the women leading the effort. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #MobilizingMen4WPS.
Reception to follow.
Speakers
Sanam Naraghi-Anderlini, Founder and Executive Director, ICAN
Honorable Ed Royce, Former U.S. Representative from California
Ambassador Donald Steinberg, Fellow, Our Secure Future
Ambassador Steven McGann, Founder, The Stevenson Group
Ambassador Melanne Verveer, Executive Director, Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security
Ambassador Rick Barton, Co-director, Scholars in the Nation’s Service Initiative, Princeton University
Rosarie Tucci, moderator, Director, Inclusive Peace Processes, U.S. Institute of Peace
Sahana Dharmapuri, Director, Our Secure Future
Dean Peacock, Senior Advisor for Global Policy, Promundo
8. Line on Fire: India-Pakistan Violence and Escalation Dynamics|Thursday, May 30th|2:00pm-3:30pm|Carnegie Endowment for International Peace|1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Over the last decade, firing by Indian and Pakistani troops across the Line of Control in Kashmir increased dramatically, but did not escalate to general conflict. Meanwhile, the February 2019 terrorist attack in Pulwama sparked a sharp, albeit short, military confrontation between India and Pakistan that saw the first aerial combat between the two since 1971. What explains the patterns of violence along the Line of Control and what are the chances that conflict could escalate and involve nuclear weapons?
Join Carnegie for a conversation with Happymon Jacob on this question and more. In his new book Line on Fire: Ceasefire Violations and India-Pakistan Escalation Dynamics, Jacob analyzes new empirical data to examine the causes of India-Pakistan violence along the Kashmir border and the relationship with potential crisis escalation.
Panel:
Happymon Jacob, Associate professor of Disarmament Studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Tamanna Salikuddin, Senior Expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace
George Perkovich, Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, overseeing the Technology and International Affairs Program and Nuclear Policy Program.
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Peace picks, March 26 – April 1
- Will the Russians Meddle in Latin American Elections? | Monday, March 26 | 9:30am – 11:00am | Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) | Register here |
2018 will see presidential elections in several countries across Latin America, notably in Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela. This event will discuss Russia’s strategic interests in Latin America, including how the region should prepare for potential Russian meddling in upcoming presidential elections. Featuring Javier Lesaca (Visiting Scholar, School of Media and Public Affairs, GWU) and David Salvo (Resident Fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, GMF).
This event will be webcast live.
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- The New Geopolitics of Turkey and the West | Monday, March 26 | 10:30am – 12:00pm | Brookings Institution | Register here |
Turkey’s relations with the United States and the European Union are under significant strain, and they are likely to remain difficult ahead of Turkey’s parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for 2019. Ankara and Washington remain at loggerheads over the way forward in Syria; several EU member states have been calling for an end to the accession process; and Turkey’s domestic politics are raising further questions about Turkey’s place in the trans-Atlantic alliance. Yet, there is much at stake: Turkey is facing threats from terrorism, struggling to manage 3.5 million Syrian refugees, and dealing with the aftermath of a failed coup. Europe and the United States have shared interests in addressing regional challenges with Turkey, especially as Russia seeks to expand its influence in the region. So how should the West handle this important but challenging ally? Featuring Eric Edelman (Roger Hertog Distinguished Practitioner-in-Residence, SAIS), Kemal Kirişci (Director, The Turkey Project, Brookings), Amanda Sloat (Robert Bosch Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe), and Stephen F. Szabo (Senior Fellow, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies). Lisel Hintz (Assistant Professor of International Relations and European Studies, SAIS) will moderate the discussion.
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- US in a Post-ISIS Iraq and Syria: Realigning Allies and Constraining Adversaries | Monday, March 26 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm | Hudson Institute | Register here |
In the Post-ISIS Middle East, Iran, Bashar al-Assad, and Russia continue to pose challenges for the U.S. as the Trump Administration develops its policy for Iraq and Syria. Turkey’s expansion of its Syria operations has the U.S. and NATO allies concerned that Turkish actions in the region run counter to NATO goals. Additionally, cooperation between Russia and Iran continues to disrupt the balance of power in the region. Hudson Institute will host a panel to explore U.S. options to realign our allies with traditional NATO and U.S. positions, hold adversaries responsible for atrocities, and prevent security backsliding in the region. Featuring Hillel Fradkin (Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute), Michael Pregent (Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute), Jennifer Cafarella (Senior Intelligence Planner, Institute for the Study of War), and Dr. Nahro Zagros (Vice President, Soran University).
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- Addressing the Ongoing Humanitarian Crisis in Nigeria | Monday, March 26 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm | Brookings Institution | Register here |
Widespread violence has plagued Nigeria over the years, with an epicenter of activity in northeast parts of the country. Much of this violence is related to the Boko Haram insurgency, although other battles between ethnic groups have also intensified, largely over land and partly due to a growing drought. Despite some success by Nigerian security forces in tamping down violence, lives continue to be lost and communities displaced. All of this is ongoing as the country prepares to hold elections next year. Featuring Alexandra Lamarche (Advocate, Refugees International), Mark Yarnell (UN Liaison and Senior Advocate, Refugees International), and Vanda Felbab-Brown (Senior Fellow, Brookings). Michael O’Hanlon (Senior Fellow, Brookings) will moderate the conversation, while adding his own perspectives.
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- Russian Influence in Moldova | Monday, March 26 | 3:30pm – 5:00pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |
Since emerging from the Soviet Union as an independent country, the Republic of Moldova has faced various challenges. Moldova, together with Ukraine and Georgia, were “captive nations” of the former Soviet Union; today, the three countries are still affected by Russian interference. For Moldova, the autonomous region of Transnistria raises questions regarding the state’s path forward with various international bodies, and the Kremlin still has clear influence in Moldovan politics. With Moldovan parliamentary elections approaching this year, the stakes are high for Moldova’s future as a free, whole, and secure European state. Featuring Ambassador John Herbst (Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council), Dr. William Hill (Global Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Professor, National Defense University), Dumitru Mînzărari (State Secretary for Defense Policy and International Cooperation, Ministry of Defense, Republic of Moldova), and Agnieszka Gmys-Wiktor (Program Officer, National Endowment for Democracy). Mark Simakovsky (Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council and Vice President, Beacon Global Strategies) will moderate the discussion.
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- Elections in Tunisia and Hope for Democratic Reform | Thursday, March 29 | 10:00am – 11:30am | Middle East Institute | Register here |
Leading up to long-awaited municipal elections, Tunisia is at a crossroads. The beginning of 2018 saw widespread protests and social unrest in both cities and rural areas, as economic stagnation and unemployment continue to worsen. However, the vote currently set for May 6 signals an opportunity for Tunisian youth, women, and minorities to make their voices heard. How might the elections encourage confidence among Tunisians in a transparent democratic process? Could the results promote or undermine Tunisia’s fragile stability? How can the international community better support Tunisia and its government to address the rising social tensions? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host Ambassador Fayçal Gouia (Ambassador of Tunisia to the United States) and Elie Abouaoun (Director, Middle East and North Africa Programs, USIP) for a panel discussion to examine Tunisia’s political challenges—both local and national—ahead of the elections. Paul Salem (Senior Vice President for Policy Research and Programs, MEI) will moderate the discussion.
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- Securing Their Roles: Women in Constitution-Making | Thursday, March 29 | 10:00am – 11:30am | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register here |
Women’s participation in drafting constitutions leads to more equitable legal frameworks and socially inclusive reforms, laying the groundwork for sustainable peace. Yet new research from Inclusive Security reveals that while 75 conflict-affected countries oversaw significant reform processes between 1995-2015, only one in five constitutional drafters in these environments have been women. As actors from Syria, Libya, and other countries marked by violence are taking steps towards building new constitutions, USIP and Inclusive Security are convening a panel to draw out lessons for policymakers by discussing women’s roles in constitution-making, gender equality in constitutional provisions – including in relation to constitutions developed with an Islamic identity—and their implications for long-term, inclusive peace and security. Featuring Palwasha Kakar (Senior Program Officer, Religion and Inclusive Societies, USIP), Marie O’Reilly (Director of Research & Analysis, Inclusive Security), Amira Yahyaoui (Founder, Al Bawsala), and Jason Gluck (Policy Specialist, Political Dialogues and Constitutional Processes, UNDP). Carla Koppell (Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation, USIP) will moderate the discussion.
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- Ukraine’s Future Leaders on the Front-lines of Change | Thursday, March 29 | 4:00pm – 5:30pm | Atlantic Council | Register here |
In the four years since the end of the Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine has not answered its most important question: how will the country ensure democratic values in its future development? Much of Ukraine’s hope lies in its young leaders who will drive the country forward in the coming years. Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) has been fortunate to provide a year-long residency to some of these future leaders as part of the inaugural year of the Center’s Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program. This event will feature this year’s Ukrainian leaders Oleksandra Matviichuk (Chairwoman, Center for Civil Liberties), Dmytro Romanovych (Member, Reform Delivery Office of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine), and Olexandr Starodubtsev (Head, Public Procurement Regulation Department, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine). They will each discuss their own perspectives on opportunities and challenges to democracy and development in their home country, as well as objectives for strengthening public administration, civil society, and economic reforms upon their return to Ukraine With introductory remarks by Ambassador John Herbst (Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council) and a keynote address by Dr. Francis Fukuyama (Mosbacher Director, CDDRL, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University). Melinda Haring (Editor, UkraineAlert, Atlantic Council) will moderate the discussion.
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- After Syria: The United States, Russia, and the Future of Terrorism | Friday, March 29 | 10:00am -11:30am | Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with EastWest Institute | Register here |
The collapse of Islamic State control in Syria has been hailed in both Russia and the United States as a victory over terrorism. Both credit their country’s military involvement with victory. But the war that continues in Syria also lays bare Moscow and Washington’s conflicting definitions and approaches when it comes to terrorism, insurgency, and combat operations. Moreover, even if a path to stabilization in that country is found, America and Russia will continue to face terrorism and terrorists at home and abroad. The ways in which these two crucial countries respond as the threat evolves will shape both their own polities and the world as a whole. Featuring Dr. Kim Cragin (Senior Research Fellow for Counterterrorism, National Defense University), Dr. Ekaterina Stepanova (Director of the Peace and Conflict Studies Unit, Institute of World Economy and International Relations), Dr. Irina Zvyagelskaya (chief research fellow, Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies), and Dr. Seth Jones (Harold Brown Chair; Director, Transnational Threats Project; and Senior Adviser, International Security Program, CSIS). Dr. Olga Oliker (Senior Adviser and Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS) will moderate the discussion.
This event will be webcast live.
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Syrian refugees: beyond the numbers
Last week, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy explored the response of the international community to the Syrian refugee crisis in an event titled Beyond the Numbers: Inside the Syrian Refugee Crisis at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum. Cameron Hudson, director of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum led the discussion.
Asked about what might happen now, Bassam Barabandi, former Syrian diplomat and co-founder of People Demand Change, said Syrians will continue to leave if Assad and ISIS remain because they feel as though nothing in Syria will provide a future. Those that have left are in search of a long-term solution with opportunities, which explains why they are choosing Germany over Egypt even though Egypt is less dangerous to reach and shares a similar culture.
Philipp Ackermann, Deputy Chief of Mission at the German Embassy, was asked about Europe’s response to the crisis and if pressuring the regime is possible. Ackermann replied that Russia’s aggression has complicated the situation. We should pursue a diplomatic path, even though that will be difficult because a new future for Syria is not possible with Assad. German society has been very welcoming, and 40% of Germans have volunteered in some way. However, the mood is going to change once the pressures kick in. What is needed is a European system to manage the influx with a distribution key for how many each country will take in so that everyone shares the burden.
Asked about the refugees’ overall sentiment, Margaret Brennan, a diplomatic correspondent for CBS News, replied that those in camps do not feel as though they have escaped. Life in the camps is not filled with hope. Nor is it sustainable. Many are leaving the camps in search of a future. Sadly, it took a little boy face down on a beach for the world to notice and to bring the human aspect into this humanitarian crisis. Media attention skyrocketed
David Pollock, Kaufman Fellow at the Washington Institute, was asked “how can we shrink the gap between rhetoric and reality?” He responded that the reputation of the US has and continues to suffer from insufficient action. Washington has not been generous in resettling refugees or in pursuing an end to the conflict. Pollock thought a military solution is the only option even though it is risky, messy, and may have unintended consequences. Certainly two years ago military action would have been appropriate. Now it is more difficult.
Barabandi added that sending money is not a solution, but instead fuels the problem. The US lost a key opportunity to befriend the Syrian people as well as the greater Middle East. Now an important direction we should be taking is to improve education for Syrians.
The Gulf attracted two comments. Pollock said the US will never put pressure on the Gulf countries to take refugees. That would be unproductive. Where they can be of assistance is financial aid for Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and maybe Europe. Brennan suggested deciding through whom to funnel financial aid is a problem. A solution for the refugees will require an even spread of responsibilities.
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