Tag: Gulf states
Surprise!
Yes, the “leave” vote surprised me. I expected economic rationality and political equanimity to prevail over distaste for immigrants and flag-waving England firsters. Identity politics has triumphed once again. Let it be a lesson to me.
The immediate economic implications are already clear: a sharp fall in the British pound, a sell-off in stock markets worldwide, an even shakier euro, and more than likely renewed recession in Europe as well as a sharp slowdown elsewhere. The US may be the exception for a while, as many people will seek safe haven in the dollar, but that will drive it up, weaken exports, and slow already slow growth. Uncertainty will persist: Scotland will proceed with a second referendum, Wales may follow suit, and Catalonia will try to do so. Will the Netherlands or France put the EU to a vote?
What about the Balkans and Middle East, where my attention is focused?
In the Balkans, both the immediate and longer term effects are dire. The region is heavily dependent on European trade and investment, which are going to be hit hard right away. But perhaps more important will be the political impact. Balkanites (that’s what I call people who live in the Balkans) have already been finding it hard to believe in their European prospects, which seem farther away than they did five years ago. Now they would be fools not to doubt the willingness of Europe minus UK to accommodate their membership.
These doubts will open the door to increased Russian influence, not only in the Balkans but also in Ukraine. No one gains more politically than Putin does from the UK referendum: it weakens his antagonists in the UK and the EU, makes his annexation of Crimea and occupation of southeastern Ukraine look more acceptable, and validates his ethnic nationalism. The vodka should be flowing freely at the Kremlin today. It will also flow into the Balkans. Putin will no doubt intensify his efforts in Serbia, in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska and in Macedonia to wean Slavs from their EU and NATO dreams.
The Middle East is a harder call. There are a lot of wealthy Gulf sheikhs with money and property in Britain. They won’t like seeing the pound collapse, and some may already be so strapped by low oil prices that they panic and get out. But my guess is that most will hang on. Slowed world economic growth will however crimp oil prices once again, after their recent rise to $50 and change. So the future of Gulf money in Britain is likely dimmer than it was in the past.
Britain’s role in the Middle East may also change. It has been a major European contributor to intervention not only in Iraq but also in Libya and Syria. A more inward-looking and reduced Britain is not going to have the same resources and will to underwrite such efforts.
Britain will of course raise its barriers to Middle Eastern immigrants, but it hasn’t been taking many of them in any event. The main focus of resentment has been against East Europeans and the threat of immigration from the Balkans. Young Albanians, Serbs, Bosniaks and Macedonians are going to lose both education and job opportunities that many have been enjoying in recent years.
Ironically, one of the many problems that need to be resolved during the two-year negotiation to implement Brexit, will be Brits abroad living in the rest of Europe, who number 1.2 million. Three million people from other EU countries live in the UK. If no accommodation is reached to allow these people to stay, we could see a massive population movement with unpredictable implications. Even if they are allowed to stay, this kind of migration is finished. The next British government will have to do everything it can to prevent foreigners from reaching its soon to be diminished shores.
Net net: Brexit is bad news for the UK, the EU, the US, the Balkans and the Middle East. It is good news for Vladimir Putin. My friends and I will not be celebrating.
PS: It took a couple of days, but John Oliver did a great, if pretty gross, explainer:
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The trouble still brewing
Yesterday’s discussion at SAIS of Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil : Policy Adjustment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries raised serious issues. Oil prices are now expected to remain “lower longer,” as IMF deputy managing director Min Zhu put it. While contributing to global growth, the price decline is posing serious economic and governance challenges to the rentier states of the region and their relatively poor dependent cousins.
The 2014 oil price decline resulted from three main factors: increased production of tight oil and gas, slackening demand (especially due to economic slowdown in China and Russia) and increased efficiency. While prices have risen sharply from their lows early this year, the IMF expects them to remain well below their previous peak, with only gradual increases over the next five years or so to around $75 per barrel.
Some efficiency gains have already been erased, as oil prices have risen from their lows at the sharpest rate ever, even if they are still far off their peak. The shale revolution is not going away, even if many less productive wells have been shut. But larger ones are still producing. Much of the shut-in capacity will return as prices rise again.
This puts the oil producers in a difficult and long-lasting bind. The immediate impact was on their foreign exchange rate reserves, which are down dramatically. Growth is slowing. Budgets are being cut. The oil producers cannot continue to subsidize food and energy prices as well as avoid taxing their populations.
Sharply cutting their budgets however will not be a sufficient policy response, especially as it will have growth-reducing effects like limiting bank credit. The oil producers will need to undertake structural reforms to generate private sector growth that has heretofore been lacking. This is basically a good thing. Low oil prices will force producers to do what they’ve known for a long time they should have been doing, including cutting government jobs, reorienting it towards revenue collection rather than distribution and privatizing bloated state-owned enterprises.
But it is still difficult to picture how the oil producers will generate sufficient jobs to meet the needs of their bulging youth populations. If they somehow manage it, the social contract that has enabled the often non-democratic regimes to claim legitimacy will need revision, with citizens receiving less and asked to provide much more. Governing institutions will be under enormous strain as they try t o learn to collect taxes even as they reduce public services. Legitimacy will be in question. This is a recipe for trouble.
The fiscal squeeze will affect not only the oil producers themselves but also the states of the region to which they provide support, either in the form of aid or remittances. The eventual political consequences could be dramatic not only for the Gulf but also for Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan and others. We have not seen the end of consequences “longer lower” will generate.
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Peace Picks June 6-10
- A Transatlantic Strategy for a Democratic Tunisia | Tuesday, June 7th | 9:00-10:30 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Atlantic Council on June 7 at 9:00 a.m. for a discussion featuring US and European officials and a panel of experts on assistance to Tunisia and the way forward for a new transatlantic strategy. Five years after Tunisia’s revolution, democratic and economic reforms have stalled. Following the revolution, the United States, the European Union, and EU member states – namely France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – substantially boosted assistance to Tunisia. But simply increasing support has not proven to be effective. In a new report titled, A Transatlantic Strategy for a Democratic Tunisia, authors Frances G. Burwell, Amy Hawthorne, Karim Mezran, and Elissa Miller present a new way forward for western engagement with Tunisia that makes clear the country’s priority status in the transatlantic agenda as it moves away from the immediate post-revolutionary period. The speakers will discuss the challenges facing Tunisia in the areas of economic development, security, and democratic development, and what steps the United States, the European Union, and key EU member states can take to help Tunisia meet these challenges and achieve greater stability and democracy. Paige Alexander leads the Bureau for the Middle East at the US Agency for International Development, where she oversees the efforts of USAID missions and development programs in countries across the region. Nicholas Westcott manages the Middle East and North Africa at the European External Action Service. Andrea Gamba focuses on Tunisia at the International Monetary Fund. Amy Hawthorne directs research at the Project on Middle East Democracy and focuses on Arab political reform and democracy promotion. Karim Mezran specializes in North African affairs at the Atlantic Council, specifically Tunisia and Libya. Frances G. Burwell concentrates on the European Union, US-EU relations, and a range of transatlantic economic, political, and defense issues at the Atlantic Council.
- Taiwan’s 2016 election and prospects for the Tsai administration | Wednesday, June 8th | 9:00-12:15 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | On May 20, 2016, Taiwan inaugurated its first female president, Tsai Ing-wen. Along with the executive office, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) gained a majority in the Legislative Yuan for the first time. The challenges facing the new administration, which President Tsai laid out in her inauguration address, are vast and complex ranging from pension reforms, environmental protection and unemployment concerns to regional economic integration and cross-Strait stability. On June 8, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings and the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) will co-host a conference on the future of Taiwan under the Tsai administration. Panelists will present papers on how the 2016 elections impact domestic politics, cross-Strait relations and Taiwan’s external strategy, and what the elections mean for Tsai’s social and economic policy reform agenda and Taiwan’s aspirations for a greater role in international space. Orbis, FPRI’s journal of world affairs, will publish a special Taiwan issue with the conference papers. Following each discussion, panelists will take audience questions. Panelists may be found here.
- The Future of NATO Enlargement and New Frontiers in European Security | Wednesday, June 8th | 11:30-1:00 | Atlantic Council | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Recent events in Europe’s east and rising tensions with Russia have resurrected the debate of whether NATO enlargement is provocative or stabilizing. While NATO enlargement has boasted historic success stories, such as Poland and the Baltic States becoming strong and stable democratic allies. But Russia has designated Alliance enlargement as a threat to its national security. In Europe’s challenging new security environment, NATO took a bold step forward to sustain its open door policy by announcing Montenegro’s membership accession, paving the way for the Balkan country to become the Alliance’s 29th member. With Montenegro poised to potentially join NATO, the Atlantic Council is convening leading experts to discuss the Alliance’s future appetite for enlargement, the political implications of NATO expansion, and what it means for NATO’s frontiers in the south and east. Speakers may be found here.
- Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil | Wednesday, June 8th | 12:00-2:00 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The recent, dramatic decline in global oil prices substantially altered the economic context and growth prospects for oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. Ambitious fiscal consolidation measures are being implemented, but budget balances may continue to deteriorate given the sharp drop in oil revenue. This presents both an opportunity and an impetus to revise energy subsidies and make deep structural reforms to support jobs and growth and facilitate economic diversification. The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and The Middle East Institute (MEI) are pleased to host senior IMF officialsMin Zhuand Martin Sommer for a presentation on the policy adjustments undertaken by regional oil-exporters and the future prospects for their economies. Dr. John Lipsky (SAIS) will moderate an expert panel discussion following the presentation.
- Irreversible Damage: Civilian Harm in Modern Conflict | Wednesday, June 8th | 1:00-2:00 | U.S. Institute of Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | U.S. forces and their allies abroad have underestimated the irreversible damage done to their missions when they kill or harm civilians, says a new report by combat veteran and strategist Christopher Kolenda and human rights researcher Rachel Reid. Yet military forces can make changes to dramatically reduce civilian casualties-and did so in Afghanistan-without undermining their own force protection or ceding military advantage. Tragically, this hard-won lesson is often lost, as in the disastrous U.S. airstrike on an Afghan hospital that killed 42 people in October. Reid led research work for Human Rights Watch amid the Afghan war after years of reporting from the country for the BBC. Kolenda commanded airborne troops in Afghanistan and later helped shape U.S. strategy there and at the Pentagon. The authors interviewed more than 40 senior U.S. and Afghan officials as part of their study examining the complex relationships among civilian harm, force protection and U.S. strategic interests in Afghanistan. In that war, civilian harm by Afghan and international forces fueled the growth of the Taliban insurgency, and undermined the legitimacy of the international mission and Afghan government. In 2008, international forces were responsible for 39 percent of civilian fatalities. Major reforms by U.S. forces reduced that to 9 percent by 2012. The lessons about the irreversible damage of civilian harm have not been fully understood or institutionalized. U.S. partners fighting the Taliban, ISIS, and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula are inflicting high rates of civilian casualties with weapons and support from the United States, yet they seem no closer to success. The tragedy of the October U.S. airstrikes on the hospital in Kunduz run by Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), showed that without consistent leadership attention, resources and training, hard-learned lessons can be lost relatively rapidly. In their report, published June 7 by the Open Society Foundations, the authors outline recommendations to promote civilian protection in ways that protect soldiers and advance U.S. interests.
- Engaging the Arts for a Vibrant, International Ukraine | Wednesday, June 8th | 3:00-4:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Jamala’s victory at the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest reminded the Ukrainian political class of the critical role arts and culture play in foreign relations and their unique ability to promote national interests. Ukraine’s culture holds tremendous potential to counteract what many perceive as a growing “Ukraine fatigue” in the West. To what extent do Ukraine’s political and economic elites grasp this possibility and have a strategy? The speakers will discuss how to develop Ukraine’s “soft power” in light of existing economic constraints and informational challenges. Speakers include Hanna Hopko, Member of Parliament and Head of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, and Kateryna Smagliy, Director of the Kennan Institute in Ukraine. The panel will be followed by a reception celebrating the exhibition of Victor Sydorenko‘s photos, statues, and video works.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: IMF Regional Economic Outlook | Thursday, June 9th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | After an extended period of strong economic growth, many sub-Saharan African countries have been hit by multiple shocks – the sharp decline in commodity prices, tighter financing conditions and a severe drought in southern and eastern Africa. Growth fell in 2015 to its lowest level in some 15 years and is expected to slow further to 3 percent in 2016. The growth performance, however, differs across countries, with most oil importers faring reasonably well. On June 9, IMF African Department Director Antoinette Sayeh will present the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, which argues that the region’s medium-term prospects remain favorable but that many countries urgently need to reset their policies to reinvigorate growth and realize this potential. To this end, she will elaborate on how countries should both adjust their macroeconomic policies in the short run, and refocus policies to facilitate structural transformation and export diversification, so as to strengthen resilience and boost growth. After the presentation, Steven Radelet, Georgetown University Professor, and Amadou Sy, Director of the Africa Growth Initiative, will join Dr. Sayeh for a panel discussion moderated by Reed Kramer, Co-founder and CEO of AllAfrica Global Media. Afterward, questions will be taken from the audience.
- Brazil Under Acting President Michel Temer | Thursday, June 9th | 10:30-12:30 | Wilson Center | The uneven start of the administration of acting President Michel Temer, following the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff by the House of Representatives and her suspension by the Senate, confirmed the complexity of the governability crisis that has and will continue to reverberate in Brazil for some time. During Temer’s first two weeks in office, two of his ministers were forced to resign after revelations of their alleged involvement in efforts to derail federal investigations into bribery schemes at state oil company Petrobras. The corruption probe has continued to enjoy widespread public support. The new government managed to approve a new 2016 budget deficit target in Congress – the first step in a difficult reform agenda meant to restore investor and consumer confidence, and ease the crisis later this year. The announcement of a new more pragmatic foreign policy, a shift away from the alliances between the Workers’ Party and its Bolivarian partners in South and Central America, encouraged Washington to express its sympathy for the constitutional process that led to Rousseff’s ouster. This has culminated in the US administration appointing a veteran career diplomat, Peter Michael McKinley, as the new US ambassador for Brazil. On June 9, with the Senate preparing to start Rousseff’s impeachment trial, the Brazil Institute will convene a panel of experts to take stock of the crisis and its possible developments. The discussion will start with an assessment of the economic outlook and the release of a survey conducted by Ideia Inteligencia on public sentiment regarding Temer’s interim government, the impeachment trial and the anti-corruption investigations. Speakers may be found here.
- Islamic exceptionalism: How the struggle over Islam is reshaping the world | Thursday, June 9th | 5:30-8:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | With the rise of ISIS and a growing terrorist threat in the West, unprecedented attention has focused on Islam, which despite being the world’s fastest growing religion, is also one of the most misunderstood. In his new book “Islamic Exceptionalism: How the Struggle over Islam is Reshaping the World” (St. Martin’s Press, 2016), Senior Fellow Shadi Hamid offers a novel and provocative argument on how Islam is, in fact, “exceptional” in how it relates to politics, with profound implications for how we understand the future of the Middle East. Hamid argues for a new understanding of how Islam and Islamism shape politics by examining different modes of reckoning with the problem of religion and state, including the terrifying—and alarmingly successful—example of ISIS. On June 9, Shadi Hamid, Isaiah Berlin, Senior Fellow in Culture and Policy, and Leon Wieseltier will discuss the unresolved questions of religion’s role in public life and whether Islam can—or should—be reformed or secularized. After the discussion, Hamid will take audience questions.
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Peace picks May 31-June 3
- The Iran nuclear deal: Prelude to proliferation in the Middle East? | Tuesday, May 31st | 9:30-11:00 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) adopted by Iran and the P5+1 partners in July 2015 was an effort not only to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but also to avert a nuclear arms competition in the Middle East. But uncertainties surrounding the future of the Iran nuclear deal, including the question of what Iran will do when key JCPOA restrictions on its nuclear program expire after 15 years, could provide incentives for some of its neighbors to keep their nuclear options open. In their Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Series monograph, “The Iran Nuclear Deal: Prelude to Proliferation in the Middle East?,” Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew assess the current status of the JCPOA and explore the likelihood that, in the wake of the agreement, regional countries will pursue their own nuclear weapons programs or at least latent nuclear weapons capabilities. Drawing on interviews with senior government officials and non-government experts from the region, they focus in depth on the possible motivations and capabilities of Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates for pursuing nuclear weapons. The monograph also offers recommendations for policies to reinforce the JCPOA and reduce the likelihood that countries of the region will seek nuclear weapons. On May 31, the Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative will host a panel to discuss the impact of the JCPOA on prospects for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Brookings Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Foreign Policy Suzanne Maloney will serve as moderator. Panelists include H.E. Yousef Al Otaiba, ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to the United States; Derek Chollet, counselor and senior advisor for security and defense policy at the German Marshall Fund; Brookings Senior Fellow Robert Einhorn; and Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Richard Nephew. Following the discussion, panelists will take questions from the audience.
- East Asia on the Brink? The Impact of the Arms Trade and Nationalism on Regional Security | Tuesday, May 31st | 10:00-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Rapidly rising military expenditures, entrenched regional rivalries, intractable territorial disputes, and a surge in nationalism across East Asia today have often been compared with Europe on the eve of World War I. Prospects for heightened regional tensions certainly remain high, which will force the United States to adjust its own strategy as a Pacific power. Join us for a discussion on the newly emerging security agenda in East Asia to assess how rising nationalism in China, Japan, and South Korea is complicating U.S. alliance management. The dynamics of the arms trade in East Asia and how U.S. policies on arms exports may be inadvertently undermining other aspects of U.S. strategy for the region will also be analyzed. Speakers include Thomas U. Berger, Wilson Center Fellow, and Jonathan Caverley, Wilson Center Fellow.
- The Rise of Gulf Arab Cities | Tuesday, May 31st | 2:00-3:15 | Middle East Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host Emirati commentator and MEI non-resident scholar Sultan al Qassemi for a discussion about the growing role of Gulf Arab cities. Qassemi argues that cities like Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha are eclipsing the Arab world’s traditional centers of power and culture, positioning themselves as global hubs, driven by investment in energy, finance, education, culture, and transportation. How is their growing political and cultural clout shaping regional dynamics and what impact is their influence having on long-standing alliances?
- President Obama in Hanoi: Vietnam-U.S.-China Relations in Transition | Wednesday, June 1st | 3:30-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | President Obama visited Vietnam in late May of 2016, against the backdrop of growing uncertainty in the South China Sea. Vietnam-China relations are steeped in 2,000 years of shared culture and deep distrust. Like its Southeast Asian neighbors, Hanoi must balance its relationship with China and the United States with increasing care. It is a party to the Trans Pacific Partnership, but is also a founding member of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. While Vietnam values its economic relationship with the PRC, it prefers an enhanced American regional security role to the prospect of Chinese military dominance. Please join us for an assessment of President Obama’s Vietnam trip and a discussion of how Vietnam’s response to Chinese and American competition and cooperation in the region will affect the American rebalance. This event is part of the Wilson Center’s Weighing the Rebalance Series, a joint effort of the Asia Program and the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. Sandy Pho, Program Associate, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, will moderate. Speakers include Hung M. Nguyen, Nonresident Senior Associate, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Marvin Ott, Wilson Center Senior Scholar, and Yun Sun, Senior Associate, Henry L. Stimson Center.
- CNAS Book Launch—“The Mirror Test” by Kael Weston | Wednesday, June 1st | 5:30-7:30 | Center on New American Security | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) invites you to attend the book launch for The Mirror Test, a new memoir by Kael Weston, who served seven years in Iraq and Afghanistan with the US Department of State. CNAS will host a panel discussion on the issues raised in The Mirror Test, including how America is viewed in the world, how the nation views itself, and the difficult intersection between diplomacy and combat in a war zone.The panel will also include Thomas Pickering, former US Ambassador to the UN and Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, and S. Rebecca Zimmerman, Associate Policy Analyst at the Rand Corporation focusing on U.S. and international special operations. The event will be moderated by Phillip Carter, CNAS Senior Fellow.
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Peace Picks April 25-29
- The security situation in Ethiopia and how it relates to the broader region | Monday, April 25th | 10:00-11:30 | Brookings | REGISTER TO ATTEND | As Africa’s oldest independent country, Ethiopia has a history that is unique in the continent. The country has faced its share of conflict, including a protracted civil war from 1974 through 1991. A land-locked location in Eastern Africa, the country has also been witness to climate catastrophes—including the drought that killed a half a million people in the 1980s and the threat of a new drought today. Despite being one of Africa’s poorest countries, Ethiopia has experienced significant economic growth since the end of the civil war, and a majority of its population is literate. In addition, Ethiopia is a crucial U.S. security partner, particularly when it comes to counterterrorism, in a region plagued by threats. On April 25, the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will host a discussion examining the security situation in Ethiopia, in broader political, economic, and regional context. Panelists will include Abye Assefa of St. Lawrence University and Terrence Lyons of George Mason University. Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, will moderate. Following discussion, the panelists will take audience questions.
- A Rage for Order | Tuesday, April 26th | 9:30-11:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | A Rage for Order is a narrative account of the Arab Spring’s unraveling, from the euphoric protests of Tahrir Square in 2011 to the televised atrocities of ISIS four years later. It is a story that takes place across five different countries and many characters, but all are united by a single arc: the collapse of political authority in the Arab world, and the unveiling of social conflicts—of tribe, of class, of religion—that had lain mostly dormant during the decades of dictatorship. The book narrates these spiraling crises through the eyes of a group of people who looked to the 2011 uprisings as a liberation, only to see their own lives torn apart in the aftermath. The author is Robert Worth, Contributing Writer at the New York Times Magazine and former Public Policy Fellow, Wilson Center. Discussants include Hannah Allam, Middle East Bureau Chief, McClatchy Newspapers, and Joseph Sassoon, Associate Professor, Georgetown University, and former Fellow, Wilson Center.
- The Future of the Russo-Turkish Relationship with Congressman Gerry Connolly | Tuesday, April 26th | 12:00-1:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | When Russia annexed Crimea, the balance of power in the Black Sea region shifted, leading to escalating tensions between Russia and Turkey. The Kremlin’s intervention in Syria and operations along the Turkish border triggered Ankara’s shootdown of a Russian fighter jet. Today, relations between Russia and Turkey are at an all-time low. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to reduce operations in Syria may once again transform foreign policy for the two states. Congressman Gerry Connolly and the panel will discuss the future of the Russo-Turkish relationship and implications of recent events on security in the region, NATO, and US policy. We hope you can join us for this important and timely discussion. Other panelists may be found here.
- The Changing Role of Egypt’s Private Sector | The Federal Budget and Appropriations: Democracy and Human Rights in the Middle East | Tuesday, April 26th | 1:30-3:00 | Project on Middle East Democracy | REGISTER TO ATTEND | POMED is pleased to invite you to the release event for our publication, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2017: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East and North Africa.” This annual report, authored by POMED’s Executive Director Stephen McInerney and Deputy Director for Policy Cole Bockenfeld, provides a detailed analysis of U.S. funding and other support for democracy and governance in the Middle East over the past year and proposed assistance for the coming Fiscal Year. As the Obama Administration draws to a close with the Middle East experiencing widespread violent conflict and resurgent authoritarianism, speakers will reflect on the report’s key findings and on President Obama’s approach to supporting democracy and human rights in the region over the past seven years. How have the Obama administration and Congress responded, through aid and diplomacy, to the dramatic changes in the region since 2011? How has the United States reacted to Tunisia’s democratic transition, Libya’s struggle to establish a unity government, and Egypt’s dramatic regression on human rights? What are the most significant trends in U.S. funding for democracy and human rights in the Middle East? Speakers include Hisham Melham, columnist for Al Arabiya, Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, Stephen McInerney, Executive Director of POMED, and Cole Bockenfeld, Deputy Director for Policy at POMED.
- The Key to Nuclear Restraint | Thursday, April 28th | 3:30-5:00 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Why have some nations acquired nuclear weapons while others have refrained? In this seminar, Dr. Thomas Jonter will analyze Sweden’s Cold War plans to acquire nuclear weapons and explore why some states choose restraint. Sweden’s leadership nearly chose develop a nuclear weapon in the 1960s, but instead steered their country to become one of the most recognized actors in the disarmament movement. Drawing on recently declassified documents from Sweden and the United States, Jonter will present a comprehensive analysis of the Swedish nuclear weapons program—and why it was abandoned. Speakers include Thomas Jonter, Director of the Stockholm University Graduate School of International Studies, and Christian F. Ostermann, Director of the History and Public Policy Program.
- Special Event on Human Rights in Iran: Iranian Revolutionary Justice Film Screening and Panel Discussion | Thursday, May 12th| 6:00-9:00 | Bahai’s of the United States and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | May 14, 2016 marks the eighth anniversary of the imprisonment of seven Bahá’í leaders in Iran. Join us for a screening of the new BBC Persian documentary film Iranian Revolutionary Justice, which includes never-before-seen footage of the secret trial of eight Bahá’í leaders in Iran in the 1980s – all of whom were executed following the trial. The screening will be followed by a panel discussion with experts on human rights in Iran. Panelists include Salim Nakhjavani, University of the Witwatersrand; former prosecutor at Khmer Rouge tribunal Dokhi Fassihian, Freedom House, and Roxana Saberi (invited), author of Between Two Worlds: My Life and Captivity in Iran. The moderator will be Geneive Abdo, Atlantic Council.
- 5th Annual Transatlantic Symposium on the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy | Friday, April 29th | 9:00-3:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join us on Friday, April 29 from 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. for the 5th Annual Symposium on the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). This EU/US flagship security and defense symposium is organized by the Delegation of the European Union to the United States, in partnership with the Atlantic Council. The Symposium will take place at the United States Institute of Peace located at 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC. We are delighted to announce that Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, Minister of Defense of the Netherlands will launch the 5th edition of the annual Symposium on the EU’s Common Security & Defense Policy (CSDP). The Minister will be joined by a number of other high-level military and civilian speakers from the EU, the United States, and NATO. Topics to be addressed this year include: New Threats and Challenges to European Security, Crisis Management in the EU’s Neighborhood, and Technology Capabilities and Readiness: The Way Forward. The agenda may be found here.
- After Hub-and-Spoke: US Hegemony in a New Gulf Security Order | Friday, April 29th | 9:30-11:00 | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Regional transformation and chaos resulting from the Arab uprisings, the rise of the Islamic State (or ISIS) in the Middle East and beyond, shifting US global priorities, and the increasing influence of outside powers in the Gulf have created a new geopolitical context for the United States’ commitment to the security of the Gulf. How will the region’s new strategic trends and security dynamics impact US interests, priorities, and future force posture? Does this changing strategic environment herald a new approach to Gulf security that looks beyond a US-controlled hub-and-spoke model toward a new, multilateral approach? How can the United States best minimize risks and capitalize on the heightened engagement of European allies in the Gulf? Please join the Atlantic Council on Friday, April 29 from 9:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. for a discussion of a new report by Brent Scowcroft Center Senior Fellow Bilal Saab, entitled After Hub-and-Spoke: US Hegemony in a New Gulf Security Order and a debate on US global defense posture in the next decade and how it might affect future US designs in the region. Other panelists may be found here.
- Women’s Leadership in Conservation and Peace | Friday, April 29th | 9:30-11:30 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Women often play a critical but under-realized role in peace, prosperity, and the management of natural resources. Join us in a discussion of the cross-cutting benefits when women are leaders in natural resource management and conservation, with access to jobs and political participation. Panelists will explore current and emerging trends in programming to further empower women in conservation and peacebuilding. This event is cosponsored by Conservation International and the Wilson Center’s Women in Public Service Project. Speakers include Mayesha Alam, Associate Director, Georgetown Institute for Women Peace and Security, Georgetown University, Eleanor Blomstrom, Program Director, Head of Office, Women’s Environment and Development Organization, Roger-Mark De Souza, Director of Population, Environmental Security, and Resilience, Wilson Center, Melanie Greenberg, CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding, Milagros Sandoval, Manager, Environmental Policy, Conservation International.
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Fight and muddle
It took longer than anticipated, but it appears now that the cessation of hostilities in Syria is ending, mainly due to regime attacks on relatively moderate opposition forces in the center of the country. Fighting has also erupted in the far northeast, where Kurdish and regime forces had long divided the turf between them but are now going after each other.
The opposition’s High Negotiation Council has been leaving the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva, disappointed that in the minimal progress on humanitarian access and release of detainees, as well as the regime’s refusal to discuss political transition. I suspect they stayed long enough to avoid any American backlash, but we’ll have to wait and see. Technical level talks on some issues are said to be proceeding.
On the regime side, President Assad is feeling strong in the aftermath of Russia’s fall offensive, which succeeded in preventing the opposition from reaching the Alawite heartland it was aiming for. Both Moscow and Tehran have now doubled down on their support for Assad. No matter how often they deny being wedded to him, neither Russia nor Iran can hope for a successor regime even half as friendly to their interests as he has been. They know they are cooked in the long term if Syria becomes even remotely democratic, as the substantial Sunni majority will no doubt remember what they’ve done and seek eventually to exclude them from any substantial influence in the country.
What this amounts to for the US is a short term loss even if it can hope for a long term gain. The cessation of hostilities worked mainly by reducing Russian and regime attacks, which this fall were responsible for most of the violence, and freed the relatively moderate opposition to do what the Americans have long wanted them to do: attack the Islamic State (ISIS). They were somewhat successful, especially in northern Syria but also in the south. That was good news for Washington. So too were the demonstrations that broke out in some cities against Jabhat al Nusra, Syria’s Qaeda affiliate.
Now the big question is whether the Americans have done what is normally done during a cessation of hostilities: prepared its Syrian allies for the renewal of violence. If the relatively moderate opposition has been strengthened, it will be difficult for the regime to make further progress or even hold the territory the Russian offensive helped it to gain. Particularly important is whether the opposition has acquired antiaircraft weapons, which could tilt the military balance against the regime even if the still active Russians remain relatively unscathed. The regime uses vulnerable helicopters to drop so-called “barrel bombs,” which devastate civilian areas.
The situation in the region remains tense and confused. Turkey continues to be more concerned with countering the Syrian Kurds (as well as their own) than with fighting the Islamic State. Saudi Arabia still seems more focused on its support for what it considers the legitimate government in Yemen rather than support for the Syrian opposition or the fight against ISIS. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu took the opportunity of a cabinet meeting held on the Golan Heights to declare that they would never be returned to Syria, thus undermining the rapprochement between Israel and the Sunni Arab states even more than Israel’s growing cooperation with Russia.
President Obama remains determined to minimize American exposure in Syria and the Middle East generally, even as he beefs up aid and advising to both Baghdad’s security forces and the Kurdish peshmerga in Iraq, where the jabber about an impending assault on Mosul belies the shortcomings of the Iraqi army. If his meeting with Gulf states this week produced a new approach in Syria or Iraq, it has not yet become apparent. Washington seems resigned to muddling through until the January end of this administration, when more likely than not Hillary Clinton will begin to serve Obama’s third term. She will then have to decide whether to follow through on her pledges to take greater risks in Syria not only against ISIS but also against Assad by imposing a no-fly zone over part of the country.
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