Tag: Gulf states
Good but…
The deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates on its face does good things. It prevents Israeli annexation of a big piece of the West Bank and will establish normal diplomatic relations and other ties between the two countries. Hard to object to any of that.
But in diplomacy the devil is in the details, especially the details of implementation. There are a lot of still unanswered questions. Is the bar on annexation permanent, or are the Israelis going to be able to threaten it over and over again in order to gain recognition by Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and maybe Qatar?* Or will those countries raise the ante and get further concessions for Palestinian interests in return for normalization?
On implementation, skepticism is in order. Egypt and Jordan have normal diplomatic relations with Israel, but their peace is not a uniformly warm one. Security cooperation is embraced, but economic and commercial relations are far from maximized. Even travel among the three countries presents serious bureaucratic barriers, not to mention the cultural inhibitions against Arabs going to Israel (and Israel’s Jews going to Arab countries).
There are three strong factors favoring UAE/Israel rapprochement.
First is Israeli security assistance. The UAE is concerned about homegrown Islamists, especially those affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. You only need sit for an hour in a business class lounge in Riyadh or Dubai to meet Israeli males with square jaws and muscular physiques, along with a group of nerds. When I asked one in Riyadh why there were so many Israelis in the lounge, he replied with an icy smile, “If I told you I would have to kill you.” My impression is that Israel has bought a lot of good will in the Gulf by helping its autocratic regimes to ensure that nothing like the Arab Spring can succeed there.
Second is a lack of bad blood at the personal level. While the UAE has recognized and support Palestine, there is no decades-long history of war with Israel and subsequent occupation, as there was with Jordan and Egypt. Nor is there a history of Jews being expelled from the Emirates, so far as I can tell. There has been a synagogue in Dubai for decades that is now officially recognized. Ordinary Emiratis may not like the deal, but mass dissent inside the UAE is unlikely, as both its citizens and non-citizens are under tight control. Your traffic ticket arrives by text message within minutes of a violation. Any negative reaction in the “Arab street” will not be in Dubai or Abu Dhabi.
Third is the common enemy: Iran. The Israelis will no doubt want and get intelligence and military cooperation with the UAE, which is conveniently located just on the other side of the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Israel will presumably be glad to provide missile defense and other high tech weaponry. The UAE was never going to be able to stand aside if war happens between Iran and Israel, so it makes sense for Abu Dhabi to get what it can to defend itself, especially after the Iranian attacks on its tankers in 2019.
The Palestinians are objecting vigorously to the UAE/Israel deal, because it rewards Israel for not doing something it should never have threatened to do and gains nothing substantial for Palestine. But the Arab world has mostly been ignoring the Palestinians lately. Certainly the Trump Administration will be uninterested in their complaints. The Palestinians will need to hope that the next Arab country to recognize Israel drives a harder bargain.
*PS: I failed to notice yesterday when drafting this that the Israelis have only suspended their annexation, which means they will try to sell that concession again to the next Arab country wanting to establish normal relations.
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Peace Picks | July 20-26, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Russian Influence Activities in Europe | July 20, 2020 | 12:00 PM- 12:45 PM | CSIS | Register Here
Please join CSIS for a conversation on Russia’s influence activities in the UK, Europe, and Europe’s southern neighborhood featuring Dame Karen Pierce DCMG, British Ambassador to the United States, and Luke Harding, foreign correspondent and investigative journalist for The Guardian, on the occasion of a newly released CSIS report on Russian and Chinese influence activities in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Introduced by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, and moderated by Rachel Ellehuus, CSIS Europe Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, this conversation will examine the objectives and tactics behind Russia’s influence activities in the UK, Europe, and beyond; discuss the activities which were and were not considered successful; and discuss steps that the United Kingdom has taken to be more resilient and less susceptible to Russian efforts at home and abroad.
Speakers:
Dame Karen Pierce DCMG: British Ambassador to the United States
Luke Harding: Foreign Correspondent, The Guardian
Rachel Ellehuus: Deputy Director, Europe Program
Heather A. Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program
- Sino-Indian Escalation: Blip or Lasting Strategic Shift? | July 21, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace |Register Here
Last month, Chinese and Indian troops came to blows in their deadliest border incident since 1967, culminating on June 15 with the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. The Indian and Chinese governments have remained largely silent on exactly what happened along the disputed boundary. The two countries appear to have stabilized the situation by starting a disengagement process, but unlike prior dustups, this unexpected and deadly turn could portend a lasting and significant strategic shift.
Join USIP for an expert panel on the Sino-Indian border clash and its implications for regional and global security. The discussion will examine whether this conflict signals an emboldened shift in China’s posture toward disputed borders elsewhere, how this rivalry affects existing India-Pakistan tensions and other border disputes, and what the implications are for the United States and its allies as they push back on perceived Chinese aggression.
Speakers:
Tanvi Madan: Senior Fellow, Project on International Order and Strategy and Director of the India Project, Brookings Institution
M. Taylor Fravel: Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Vikram J. Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Jacob Stokes (Moderator): Senior Policy Analyst, China Program, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
- One State, Two States, or None At All: Where Do Israelis and Palestinians Go From Here? | July 21, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
As Israelis and Palestinians confront the future, prospects for serious negotiations, or even a conflict-ending solution, look particularly grim. The prospects of a negotiated two-state solution are dwindling or already dead; the possibility of a bi-national state shimmers out in the distance like a desert mirage; and both the Trump peace plan and possible Israeli annexation offer either continued impasse or escalation.
Where do Israelis and Palestinians go from here? Join us as three veteran observers and practitioners of Israeli-Palestinian affairs assess the prospects for peace and the road ahead.
Speakers:
Shlomo Ben Ami: former foreign minister of Israel.
Nadeel Shaath: foreign minister of Palestine from 2003 to 2005, the former minister of Planning and International Cooperation, and a former member of Fateh Central Committee.
Tamara Cofman Wittes: senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, where she focuses on U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Aaron David Miller: senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.
- The Next Era of US-Pacific Islands Engagement | July 22, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In this Pacific Century, the United States is a Pacific nation that for three generations has anchored peace in this region of the world. The Pacific Islands include 24 jurisdictions ranging from independent states, to states linked to the United States and others through free association compacts, to territories and dependencies stretching throughout Polynesia, Micronesia, and Melanesia—from Rapa Nui to Palau, from Hawai’i to New Caledonia. As the world turns its attention to the Pacific Islands, these countries are coalescing around a shared regional identity and bringing their economic, political, and security concerns to the global stage.
How do the United States and our allies and partners continue longstanding mutual interests and values with the Pacific Islands in the face of accelerating development needs and challenges to regional peace and security, sovereignty, trade and freedom of navigation, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law?
Join USIP as we host two co-founders of the bipartisan Congressional Pacific Islands Caucus for a discussion that outlines these challenges and opportunities, as well as their proposals to coordinate the next era of the United States’ engagement in the Pacific.
Speakers:
Rep. Ed Case: U.S. Representative from Hawaii
Rep. Ted Yoho: U.S. Representative from Florida
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg: (Moderator): President, U.S. Institute of Peace
- US Policy Towards Syria after the Caesar Act | July 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Arab Center DC | Register Here
This webinar focuses on the substance and ramifications of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which was passed by both chambers of the US Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump in 2019. It went into effect on June 17, 2020. The discussion will provide details on the sanctions mandated by the act, an update on the implementation and targets of these sanctions, and the ensuing political and regional dynamics, including Russia’s reaction. The speakers will also address the next steps for the United States following the July 9, 2020 condemnation of Syria’s air force by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
Speakers:
Joel D. Rayburn: Deputy Assistant Secretary for Levant Affairs and Special Envoy for Syria, US Department of State
Radwan Ziadeh: Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Reema Abuhamdieh (Moderator): Presenter and Reporter, Al Araby Television Network
- Toward a Green Recovery in the Gulf States | July 23, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM | Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington| Register Here
As the Gulf Arab countries look to recover from the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, climate-related challenges loom large over their economic revival plans. While urgent in their own right, climate-related challenges are a slower moving threat compared to the immediacy of a global pandemic; nevertheless, the economic consequences of, and solutions to, both problems present many parallels. As with climate change, the coronavirus crisis further emphasizes the importance of regional economic diversification programs aimed at reducing oil dependence and highlights lower carbon, technology, and human capital-intensive businesses as the sectors that are most sustainable and resilient to economic shocks.
Is this a window of opportunity for Gulf leaders to drive diversification policies further and faster? Will shifts in consumer and industrial behaviors reorient economic policy toward sustainable development goals? Couldaccelerating investment in renewable energy underpin economic recovery, or will rising public debt, combined with significant capital outflows and reduced exports, make financing green investments a challenge?
Speakers:
Samantha Gross: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution
Aisha Al-Sarihi: Non-Resident Fellow, AGSIW
Rabia Ferroukhi: Director, Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre, International Renewable Energy Agency
Mari Luomi: Independent Expert, Sustainable Energy and Climate Policy
Grzegorz Peszko: Economist, World Bank
- Online Event: A Conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci | July 24, 2020 | 1:30 PM – 2:00 PM | CSIS | Watch Event Here
Please join the CSIS Global Health Policy Center on Friday, July 24 from 1:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. EDT for a conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health and member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force on Covid-19 in the United States. The United States is in the midst of a worsening crisis, with Covid-19 cases and deaths increasing in the Sun Belt, the West, and many other parts of the United States. This begs the question: what is the strategy for ensuring that the outbreak does not spiral out of control in the United States? How can the United States strengthen the basic public health capacities – test, trace, and isolate – needed to slow the spread? What federal, state, and local actions may be necessary to protect the American people and safely reopen businesses, schools, and sporting events?
In this CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security event, J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center, will discuss these difficult questions with Dr. Anthony Fauci. They will also discuss the development of a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine, including the status and promise of Operation Warp Speed.`
Speakers:
Anthony Fauci: Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health and a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force
J. Stephen Morrison: Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
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The Dating Game: Israel and the Gulf
In the last decade, the Gulf Arab states have grown steadily closer to Israel. Regional experts attribute this shift to changes in the strategic landscape, as well as shared antipathy toward Iran. Though collaboration was initially confined to the security sphere, it has expanded dramatically in recent years. On July 7, the Atlantic Council hosted an online event on this topic, entitled Israel’s Growing Ties with the Gulf Arab States. Speakers examined the potential for growth in the relationship, as well as some possible challenges. Their names and affiliations are listed below:
Dr. Gawdat Baghat: Professor of National Security Affairs, National Defense University
Jonathan H. Ferziger: Former Chief Political Reporter for Israeli & Palestinian Affairs, Bloomberg News
Ambassador Anne W. Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Ambassador Marc J. Sievers: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Why Israel?
After the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the local balance of power shifted. Once powerful regional actors Egypt, Iraq, and Syria stagnated or declined. In their place rose non-Arab states Iran, Turkey, and Israel. According to Baghat, the Arab Spring only made this shift more severe. After the Arab Spring, Gulf Arab states increasingly perceived Israel as a potential ally rather than an enemy. Israel was a wealthy state with an advanced economy, great civilian and military technology, and a common enemy. The Gulf Arab states eventually approached Israel out of a desire to collaborate on anti-Iran initiatives.
Baghat explains that many Arab leaders believe that “the road to Washington is paved through Jerusalem.” Opportunistic Gulf Arab states may have changed their tune on Israel to curry favor with the United States. Even so, it is highly unlikely that Israel’s proximity to the United States was the sole or even the most important reason for the establishment of these new relationships. Gulf-Israeli cooperation is more organic, genuine, and locally-driven than ever, argues Sievers.
Since the Gulf States began their engagement with Israel, the Palestine issue has been largely on the back burner. Ferziger remarked that the issue has been conveniently ignored.
Arab-Israeli Cooperation
At its outset, cooperation was confined to the security sphere. Today, however, cooperation is far more robust. Ferziger happily notes that the Gulf Arab states work closely with Israel on economic issues, medical research, and even religious initiatives.
Israel’s advanced economy and many start-ups make it an attractive partner for the oil-rich Gulf states. Indeed, Saudi and Emirati sovereign wealth funds frequently invest in Israeli companies. Moreover, many Arab companies have long-lasting relationships with their Israeli counterparts. Ferziger cites Dubai World Ports and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services as an example.
Further, COVID-19 provided a platform for more open commercial relations between the Gulf states and Israel. On July 3, Israel Aerospace Industries and the UAE’s Group 42 signed a collaboration agreement. The agreement outlined their commitment to jointly fighting COVID-19, focusing on medical research and security technology. This was a major step in Gulf-Israel relations. Though the UAE and Israel do not have formal diplomatic relations, Ferziger believes that this agreement could lead to formal partnerships in other fields.
Somewhat unexpectedly, Ferziger argues that religious ties have paved the way for improved relations between the Gulf and Israel. Dubai has an active Jewish community, and the UAE has commenced a number of interfaith initiatives. In Abu Dhabi, for example, the Higher Committee on Human Fraternity commissioned an interfaith complex. This complex, the Abrahamic Faith House, will house a mosque, church, and synagogue.
The above are merely three areas of collaboration between the Gulf states and Israel. They do not constitute an exhaustive list.
Potential Challenges
In Baghat’s eyes, one major flaw in the nature of the Gulf-Israel relationship is that it is elite-driven. Relationships exist at the governmental level, between members of Gulf royal families and Israeli leaders. This is particularly troublesome, Baghat argues, because it means that the relationship can be easily reversed. He believes that cultural exchange is essential to the growth and success of the Gulf-Israel relationship.
Patterson notes the generational divide among Gulf leaders. Rapprochement is championed by younger leaders like Mohammad Bin Salman. These younger leaders can be overruled by more established members of the ruling dynasty. The relationship may be less stable than it appears.
Other challenges to the Gulf-Israel relationship are more immediate. The speakers agreed that Israeli annexation on the West Bank could impact the growing relationship, though they remained divided on the extent of its impact. Ferziger, a Jerusalem-based journalist, minimized the prospect of annexation and, in so doing, implied that its effect would be limited. Conversely, Ambassadors Patterson and Sievers expressed serious concerns about West Bank annexation. If the Gulf Arab states were to passively accept Israeli annexation, they argued, relationships with Arab states like Jordan could be negatively impacted. Ultimately, this is all speculation; Israel has not yet annexed the West Bank, nor has it announced any concrete plans.
Here is the video of the event:
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The Arab world is vulnerable
The Arab world is facing a global coronavirus recession and the associated oil demand shock. On April 22, the Arab Center Washington DC hosted a panel discussion on “The Oil Market and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the Arab World.” The discussion featured three speakers:
Garbis Iradian: Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, Institute of International Finance
Bessma Momani: Interim Assistant Vice-President of International Relations and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC, moderated
The oil market and Arab states
Iradian stated that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement to cut crude oil production by 9.7 million barrels, but this agreement will not be enacted until May. West Texas Intermediate has crashed into negative territory. More than sufficient oil supply and limited storage capacity is causing oil companies to give out oil for free. Iradian expected oil prices for the second quarter of this year to bottom around $30. The prices for the second half of this year will depend on recovery of global economy, especially from the COVID-19 pandemic. But prices will remain low in the long-term.
Iradian mentioned that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait could cope with low oil prices for at least 2-3 years because their ratio of public debt to GDP is modest. These countries have large financial buffers, including official reserves and sovereign wealth funds that can finance their current deficits.
Algeria, Oman, Bahrain, and Iraq, however, are encountering greater risks. Oman’s and Bahrain’s ratio of public debt to their GDP is high. Neither has sufficient official reserves and sovereign wealth funds, so they are cutting spending and diversifying their economies. Low oil prices will create more incentives for some oil exporters to reform. Both Algeria and Iraq have provided stimulus packages to lend to SMEs at concessional terms.
Oil importers, such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Sudan could benefit a little from low oil prices. The economic contraction, however, will have a negative impact on them due to the decrease in tourism, remittances from the GCC, and investment.
A grim outlook
Momani is pessimistic about the current global liquidity crisis. The Middle East depends on multilateral organizations and official development assistance from the West. The West, however, doesn’t have the incentive to give financial resources to the Middle East. Although the Arab states have reserves, they will slowly dry up because the global economy will not recover in the short-term.
Momani believes that this is a semi-permanent situation that will induce restructuring in every sector. The decline in oil prices is problematic to many Arab states as they are dependent on oil exports. In Iraq, the cost production of crude oil is $5/barrel, and in Saudi Arabia the cost production is $10-15/ barrel. If low oil prices persist, it will lead to revenue shortfalls. Some Gulf states intend to diversify their economies, but tourism, airlines, and big sports events are all at a standstill.
Momani listed several more economic challenges that the Gulf faces:
- Most states without enormous reserves have low tax bases.
- The lack of social safety net means public health services are inequitably distributed between the rich and the masses.
- Guest workers in the Gulf face both unemployment and discrimination.
- The intergenerational family structure prevents Middle Eastern families from combating COVID-19 effectively.
- Universities in the Gulf, most of which are subsidized by Gulf states, are facing difficulties.
- The UAE, which depends on port infrastructure, will come to a standstill as the movement of goods and services between China and the Middle East halts.
- Oil exporters depend on US dollars but cannot print them, they are hostage to the US Federal Reserve and the Trump administration.
- The crisis could induce the collapse of small entrepreneurial sectors.
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Peace Picks| April 18- April 25
Public Health Surveillance, Al bias, and Risks to Privacy in the Fight against COVID-19 | April 21, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
To help fight COVID-19, U.S. tech companies have recently announced efforts to leverage public health surveillance, including tracking the spread of the coronavirus using Bluetooth-enabled devices. China, South Korea, and Israel are already engaged in some form of citizen tracking to mitigate and reduce their infection rates. Artificial intelligence (AI) and other digital tools have the capability to capture biometrics, location data, and other indicators of infection. Given these existing and potential uses of AI, what are the privacy implications for the collection of such health data? Which groups are at risk of unintended and potentially discriminatory outcomes? How transparent will these systems be?
Speakers:
Alex Engler: Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Michelle Richardson: Director, Privacy and Data Project, Center for Democracy and Technology
Nicol Turner Lee (Moderator): Fellow, Governance Studies, Center for Technology Innovation
LGBTQ+ Movements in the Middle East: Navigating Political Unrest and Global Pandemic | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Acceptance of the LGBTQ+ community is low
across the Middle East, and LGBTQ+ individuals face a number of unique
challenges due to their identity. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to
host a virtual panel which will seek to explore the ways in which these
communities have organized in the Middle East in order to raise visibility and
advocate for greater rights, and how these efforts are under attack across the
region. Panelists will discuss the impacts that governments, laws, and society
have on the lives of LGBTQ+ people, and the ways in which grassroots
organizations and initiatives strive to support this community in the face of
backlash and the challenges of navigating the COVID-19 pandemic.
What are the major challenges LGBTQ+ people face in the
Middle East? In what ways have LGBTQ+ rights been integrated into broader
social and political movements in countries like Lebanon and Iraq? How
has COVID-19 impacted important advocacy work, and how are activists and
organizations adapting to continue to protect these communities? Is there any
hope for future protection of LGBTQ+ people in the wake of regional and global
crises?
Speakers:
Amir Ashour: Founder and executive director, IraQueer
Roula Seghaier: Executive Member, Masaha: Accessible Feminist Knowledge
Rasha Younes: Researcher, LGBT rights program, Human Rights Watch
Antoun Issa (Moderator): Non-resident scholar, MEI
The Oil Market and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the Arab World | April 22, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here
Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 and the plunging oil prices on the economic outlook in the Arab world, including how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting economies in the region in the short and long-term, the implications of the recent price wars on Gulf economies, and the outcomes of the OPEC+ meeting.
Speakers:
Garbis Iradian: Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, Institution of International Finance
Bessma Momani: Interim Assistant Vice-President of International Relations and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC
The Path to Intra-Afghan Talks | April 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Since the signing of the landmark U.S.-Taliban agreement on February 29, efforts to reach the next phase in the Afghanistan peace process have faced numerous obstacles, both old and new. Comprehensive Intra-Afghan negotiations, originally planned to begin within 10 days of the U.S.-Taliban agreement, have yet to occur—delayed by disagreements over the presidential election results, prisoner releases, and now the spread of coronavirus in Afghanistan and the region. One hopeful sign, however, was the announcement of a politically and ethnically inclusive negotiation team to represent the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in talks with the Taliban.
The 21-member delegation will be led by former Minister Masoom Stanekzai and includes five women. Now that a team has been formed, negotiators will need to plan their strategy for the intra-Afghan talks and develop negotiating positions on key substantive issues—including political power-sharing, the role of Islam, and the future of human rights protections and democracy in Afghanistan.
Speakers:
Masoom Stanekzai: Head of the Afghan Government Negotiation Team; former Chief of the National Directorate of Security
Habiba Sarabi: Afghan Government Negotiation Team Member; Deputy Chair, Afghanistan High Peace Council
Alexander Thier: Senior Adviser, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Founder of Triple Helix Consulting
Ambassador Richard Olson (Moderator): Senior Advisor, USIP; former US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Andrew Wilder (Welcoming remarks): Vice President, Asia Center, USIP
COVID-19: Implications for peace and security in the Middle East | April 22, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookins Institution | Register Here
The Brookings Doha Center is pleased to invite you to a webinar discussion on the implications of Covid-19 for regional peace and security. What are the short and long-term implications of the pandemic for regional security? How can regional and international powers mitigate the fallout from the pandemic? Will the crisis expand and intensify existing conflicts or could it become a rallying call for conflict resolution? How can vulnerable communities be protected? These questions, and others, will be addressed by a distinguished panel of experts.
Speakers:
Tanya Gilly-Khailany: Director, SEED
Frederic Wehrey: Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Galip Dalay: Nonresident Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Ranj Alaaldin (Moderator): Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Pakistan’s Coronavirus Crisis: Impact and Solutions | April 23, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In addition to the severe human cost, the COVID-19 crisis has forced Pakistan’s already suffering economy to a grinding halt. Social distancing policies, necessary to stop the spread of the virus, have sent the global economy reeling, paralyzed the informal economy, and left Pakistan’s most vulnerable without income and sustenance. Meanwhile, despite a $7.5 billion relief package, both central and provincial governments have struggled to respond as the number of confirmed cases continues to rise daily. As the situation stands, much more will be needed for Pakistan to effectively address the crisis.
Speakers:
Cyril Almeida: Visiting Senior Expert, USIP
Khurram Hussain: Business Editor, Dawn Newspaper
Elizabeth Threlkeld: Deputy Director, South Asia, Stimson Center
Uzair Younus: Nonresident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Tamanna Salikuddin (Moderator): Director, South Asia, USIP
Economic Shocks of COVID-19: What Next for the Caspian Basin and South Caucasus? | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The economic toll of COVID-19 around the world has been significant and the impact of this crisis will reverberate for the next few years. Iran is among the hardest hit economies but the fallout is also already felt among Iran’s immediate neighboring states, including the countries of South Caucasus and the Caspian Basin. With US sanctions severely limiting its international trade, Tehran has in recent years banked on trade with immediate neighbors as a stopgap remedy to its economic needs. This policy of prioritizing trade and other economic ties with immediate neighbors is now under seven more pressure due to COVID-19. While Iran is expected to experience a sharp economic contraction in 2020, the economic growth forecasts have also been cut in neighboring Caucasus states, requiring swift and decisive action from leaders and international partners.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) will bring together a panel of experts to explore the economic impacts of COVID-19 on Iran, the South Caucasus and the question of regional economic cooperation and integration. Besides looking at what has driven Iran’s neighborhood policy in recent years, and how it is in danger of crumbling due to COVID-19 restrictions, the panel will focus on the specific case of the energy sector where regional integration was moving ahead albeit slowly. Meanwhile, the role played by third-parties – including Russia and the US – will also be tackled by the panelists as they reflect on Iran-South Caucasus economic connections.
Speakers:
Aleksi Aleksishvili: Chairman and CEO, Policy and Management Consulting Group
Rauf Mammadov: Resident scholar on energy policy, MEI
Suzanne Maloney: Interim vice president and director, Foreign Policy program, Brookings Institution
The Middle East on Lockdown: The Impact of COVID-19 on Regional Economies | April 23, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Wilson Center | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic has driven most of the world to shut borders, close businesses, and impose lockdowns on citizen movement to mitigate the spread of the novel virus. In the Middle East and North Africa, many countries shuttered businesses and banned public gatherings accompanied by strict curfews enforced by police or national militaries. Oil and Gas producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE injected billions into their economies to ease the economic fallout. However, resource-scarce countries already suffering from economic fragility also took measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises which make up the backbone of their private sectors. With the world heading into a deep recession, the economic future of the region is indeed dire. This will likely reignite political tensions that are temporarily subdued by the lockdown and will drive a renew wave of unrest across the region.
Speakers:
David Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Middle East Specialist and Former Washington Post Correspondent
Ibrahim Saif: CEO of Jordan Strategy Forum
Bessma Momani: Assistant Vice President of International Relations at University of Waterloo
Merissa Khurma (Moderator): Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives
A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East? | April 23, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Join THO on Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 11AM EST for a webinar on “A Changing World: What’s Next for the Middle East?“.
Speakers:
William F. Wechsler: Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Benjamin H. Friedman: Senior Fellow and Defense Scholar, Defense Priorities Lecturer, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs
Amb. Selcuk Unal: Director General for Syria, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs
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Gulf arms trade
While the US and Western Europe remain major suppliers in arms trade to Gulf states, other regional and global powers have strengthened their relationships with Gulf states as well. On March 25, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) hosted a panel discussion on “Gulf Security in a Multipolar World: New Defense Ties Reflect Competition for Influence.” The discussion featured five speakers:
Jon Alterman: Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Alexandra Kuimova: Research Assistant, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Shana Marshall: Associate Director at the Institute for Middle East Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs
Bilal Saab: Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program at the Middle East Institute
Pieter D. Wezeman: Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Emma Soubrier: Visiting Scholar, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, moderated
The West and the Gulf
Wezeman indicated that the US and Europe are major suppliers of weapons, training, technology, and manpower to Gulf states, especially to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Kuimova added that the US, the UK, France and Germany have increased their domination over the Gulf market from 2015 to 2019.
Saab emphasized that there is decreased regional confidence in US security commitment to its Gulf partners. He listed three major breakdowns in their partnership:
- Bush administration’s planning for a never executed attack on Iran
- Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran
- Trump administration’s assassination of Soleimani
The US never consulted on these major regional moves with its Gulf allies. But the US is desperate to sell arms to the Gulf, especially now that there is a power competition with Russia and China. Alterman believes nevertheless that the Gulf aims to maintain a close relationship with the US.
Intraregional Dynamics
Marshall stated that intraregional movement of arms has continued throughout Gulf history. The Gulf finances arms transfers from the US and Europe to non-Gulf monarchies and authoritarian republics, including Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon. There have also been smuggling and proliferation. Additionally, regional production forms a basis for intraregional trade. The GCC aims for domestic production for itself and its regional allies, loosening the West’s grip on regional arms and capital transfers. It also broadens the GCC’s geopolitical influence by increasing political and commercial activities. Marshall concluded that having its own indigenous defense industry for arms sales and transfer is an integral part of effectuating Gulf foreign policy.
Wezeman thinks that the development of arms industry shows a state’s desire to be a regional power with strategic independence. It’s difficult to be a self-sufficient arms industry due to the inability to produce all materials and technologies. State indigenous arms industries have to depend on their allies to some extent.
Other players
Wezeman stated that China and Russia have entered the Gulf market by offering niche products. They may play a bigger role in the future. Kuimova indicated they are among the top ten arms exporters in the world and have increased their interests in the Gulf through security collaboration and economic cooperation, including arms trade and investment. Although Gulf states haven’t placed any orders for S-400 missile system or the Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft with Russia yet, the number of Gulf states that receive China’s arms supplies has increased. Kuimova attributed Gulf states’ arms requests from China and Russia to three reasons:
- The Gulf lacks the domestic technological basis needed to design and produce advanced weapons.
- Western suppliers limit their weapons sales to the Gulf for political and humanitarian reasons. Russia and China request few such conditions.
- Duplication of sources allows the Gulf to benefit from competition in terms of prices and conditions.
Alterman stated that China is trying to have comprehensive strategic partnerships with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, and Egypt. While Russia is not a desirable alternative partner to the US in the region, China can be a supplement to the US. He listed China’s motivations as follows:
- The Chinese need to secure energy from the Middle East independently of the US.
- American hegemony isn’t in China’s interests. China’s rising profile in the Middle East can draw US attention away from the Western Pacific and put a wedge between the US, Europe, and China.
He emphasized that China focuses more on business than security. How China-Middle East relations will develop still remains an open question.
Here’s the video for this panel discussion:
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