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What happens in Ukraine won’t stay in Ukraine

Here are the speaking notes I prepared on the Balkans and Middle East for this noon’s event on “What’s Next for Russia, Ukraine, and the World?” It featured Johns Hopkins/SAIS faculty:

Balkans

1. American policy since the end of the Cold War has aimed at “Europe whole and free.” That isn’t going to happen so long as Putin or someone of his ilk rules Russia.
2. Serbia claims neutrality, but its current leadership advocates a “Serbian world” akin to Putin’s “Russian world.” Belgrade also refuses to sanction Moscow. De facto Serbia is siding with Russia.
3. That puts Bosnia, Kosovo, and NATO member Montenegro at risk from Serb irredentism.
4. The line between democracies and autocracies will therefore also be drawn through the Balkans unless Belgrade changes its inclinations.

Countering Russian ambitions and Moscow’s Serb proxies needs higher priority:

1. Deployment of an additional 500 EU troops to Bosnia is a good first step. But more are needed. The UK should augment that deployment. The US should beef up the military presence in Brcko and move some troops to northern Kosovo .
2. The EU should tell Serbia that continued adherence to neutrality in Ukraine will result in a halt to the EU accession process.
3. The US, UK, and EU should end bilateral and multilateral assistance to Republika Srpska and threaten likewise to Serbia.

Middle East

In the Middle East, the situation is more ambiguous. The interests at stake are less compelling and US policy more accepting of autocracy:

1. Syria backs Russia and Iran is attempting the Chinese straddle (for peace but against Ukrainian membership in NATO). Egypt, the UAE, and other small Gulf monarchies are ducking for cover. Saudi Arabia so far has decided to enjoy high oil prices.
2. Israel has backed Ukraine, but cautiously to avoid Russian retaliation against its interests in Syria and domestic political complications. Turkey has also backed Ukraine, less cautiously.
3. Ultimately, the Middle East will go with the flow. If Russia is successful, no one in the Middle East will refuse to maintain diplomatic relations with a puppet government in Kyiv.
4. OPEC+ will gain traction and Russian inroads in the Middle East will expand.
5. But if Russia fails, the Middle East countries, democracies and autocracies alike, will claim they supported Ukraine, even if OPEC+ suffers irreparable damage.