Tag: Hamas
Stevenson’s army, December 20
– The Senate left town for the year, but cleared military nominations first.
– Here’s the Colorado Supreme Court decision barring Trump from the primary ballot
– CNBC says crypto PACs have a lot of money
– Dan Drezner sees incentives for political games over foreign policy
– Politico discusses Trump attacks on civil service
– WSJ says Hamas is planning postwar governance
– Paul Musgrave defends academic freedom by citing the margarine battle in Iowa
– New York magazine tells of Kissinger’s post-government business and partying
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 18
– Netanyahu brags that he has blocked a Palestinian state.
– Semafor says US is considering attacks on Houthis.
– WSJ says US & Israel knew of Hamas funding but didn’t act.
– David Ignatius reports on the West Bank.
– Critics see problems in DOD drone program
-New NDAA includes provision requiring congressional action to pull out of NATO. [I sympathize with the intent but am unsure of its legality.]
– Lawyers urge SIOP for economic conflict with China
– Atlantic notes history of changing Supreme Court jurisdiction over cases
– On the 250 anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, Smithsonian has history.
Semafor editor suggests these newsletters for following China: Flagship Senior Editor Prashant Rao recommended Sinocism, The Wire China, ChinaTalk, and WSJ China for all your in-depth China-watching needs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, Decemberr 15
– Former SAIS prof Mara Karlin, stepping down at DOD
– WaPo reports Chinese cyber attacks on US infrastructure
– NYT says US & Ukraine are working on a new strategy
– Economist has valuable report on Indian military, including strategy, organization, deployments, and civil-military tensions
– NBC says promised US-Chinese military hotline still hasn’t been started
– New NDAA, expected to pass this week, will allow some military program starts despite normal CR blocks
– French analyst explains internal Hamas debates–
And this from Legistorm:
Time to hand out those holiday bonuses: The average House personal office is on track to end the year with more than $360,000 left in its annual operating budget.
The average House personal office used just 61% of its office budget in the first nine months of the year, according to a LegiStorm analysis. That puts each office on pace to use 81% of its budget by the year’s end, leaving close to $363,000 unspent per office.
The personal average office ended 2022 with 10% of its budget left unspent, or more than $176,000.
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Stevenson’s army, December 10
– NYT recounts how Israel agreed to Qatar’s financial support to Hamas in Gaza for years
– Mort Halperin recounts Kissinger’s lies to him. [Full disclosure: Halperin was my junior year tutor and later my boss in Policy Planning at State]
– State uses emergency authority to bypass Congress on weapons sale to Israel
– WSJ has background information on Hamas leader
– Kevin Drum explains the generational division over Israel
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 1
– NYT says Israeli intelligence got 40-page Hamas attack plan a year ago but dismissed it as “aspirational.”
– Brown University institute says US has counter-terrorism efforts in 78 countries.
-WSJ reports on Israeli plans to get Hamas fighters.
– Avoid a BRAC – what lawmakers want to protect.
– House votes to freeze Iran funds.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
– Carnegie paper discusses legal conditions on aid to Israel
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Friends don’t let friends commit mass murder
Let’s leave aside whether the Israeli campaign in Gaza has constituted genocide. That depends on its government’s intentions. There are genocidal implications of what some Israelis, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have said. But we are far from the kind of evidence on intent that would be required for an indictment at the International Criminal Court. Nevermind a conviction. Let’s leave that question for after the war.
Is it worth it?
The immediate effects of the Israeli bombing are appalling. It has displaced at least half the population. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, which operates under the authority of Hamas, on the order of 15,000 people are dead. Forty per cent are said to be children. Gaza is densely populated. Half its population is under 18. So the Israelis are hitting fewer children than if they were shooting randomly, but not by all that much.
The number of Hamas fighters killed in Gaza is not known. It is likely not much more than the 1500 killed inside Israel during the counterattack October 7 and thereafter. The question is whether killing 10 or even 5 civilians for each Hamas fighter is reasonable. Proportionality between military action and result is an important criterion in the laws of war. So too is necessity. Is there no way other than what the Israelis are doing to destroy Hamas? I’ve addressed that question previously.
Next could be worse
If the fighting restarts after the current pause, we can expect worse. Much of Gaza’s civilian population has sought refuge in the south, as Israel advised. Those displaced will already be short of resources. The civilian population will be more concentrated and exposed, many living in the open rather than in buildings. Intensified bombing in the south will quickly kill more. It will also destroy much of the remaining civilian infrastructure.
Hamas will have taken refuge in its tunnels. Hitting them in the north is one of the reasons for the devastating destruction there, with perhaps half the buildings destroyed. Repeating that destruction in the south will be catastrophic.
Some Israelis hope the Gazans will flee to Egypt, which is resisting their entry. Egypt already hosts an extraordinary number of refugees. But even if Cairo opens the door, the result will be an influx into northern Sinai, which borders Israel. Extremists there are already rife. Would it really help to increase their recruiting potential and risk an assault in southern Israel?
Still worse after the fighting stops
The impact of war continues after the fighting ends. At some point, the Israelis will decide they have done enough. But that won’t end the effects of what they will have done. Disease, hunger, and radicalization will haunt the end of the Gaza war. All will be worse the longer the fighting lasts.
The international community knows how to deal with disease and hunger. It will flood Gaza with assistance of those sorts once the fighting stops, provided the Israelis permit it.
But we know little about avoiding radicalization, which even Netanyahu has acknowledged is a risk.
What is to be done?
Gaza is not going anywhere. It will remain a threat to Israel. That is a good reason not to completely alienate its population, which wasn’t fond of Hamas before October 7.
While President Biden has been jawboning the Israelis to target better and reduce civilian casualties, his diplomatic approach has not been effective. Some in Congress are suggesting imposing conditions on US aid to Israel. That proposition isn’t going to pass in either the House or the Senate. But the proposal may still boost those in Israel who think Netanyahu has gone too far. Friends don’t let friends commit mass murder.
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