Tag: Hamas
When too much is not enough
Now that the initial exchange of prisoners appears to have succeeded, it is time to re-evaluate the situation in Gaza.
The Israelis have gotten themselves in a fix. Pursuing their war objective of wiping out Hamas is ending too many lives and wrecking too much property. If they continue, the odds of achieving stability after the war are small. They may not, as they claim, be targetting civilians, but they are hitting a lot of them. Their military efforts do not look either necessary or proportional to the objective. Those are important conditions for lawful behavior.
Stop and try something else
Even the Israelis have no idea how Gaza will be governed after the fighting stops. Prime Minister Netanyahu says Israel will take miitary responsibility for Gaza security. He says nothing coherent beyond “deradicalization” about civilian governance. We know what that means: a new version of the open-air prison with high walls. No one should believe that will work well. President Biden has explicitly rejected that option. He wants some sort of international administration as a transition to a Palestinian Authority takeover of responsibility. That is only slightly more promising.
The time has more than come for the Israelis to stop what they are doing and try something else. This could mean an extension of the current pause, but it may not mean a formal bilateral ceasefire agreed with Hamas. It could also mean a unilateral Israeli move intended to provide an opportunity to flood Gaza with humanitarian assistance. Israeli raids against identified concentrations of Hamas fighters might continue, but without the destruction of civilians and civilian infrastructure that remains.
The alternative
There is an alternative. The Israelis waited a long time to get Adolf Eichmann. They then wisely tried him publicly and convicted him in a court of law. They need to show similar strategic patience in dealing with Hamas. It will take years to identify and track down the Hamas commanders responsible for October 7. If they are terrorists, as Netanyahu claims, the right place for them is in court. A trial would have a more salutary effect on deradicalization than the extra-judicial killing the Israelis exercised against the 1972 Munich Olympics terrorists.
Continuing the hunt for Hamas fighters in current conditions in Gaza is madness. But it helps to keep Prime Minister Netanyahu in power. Once there is a prolonged pause in the fighting, the Israeli public will have an opportunity to demand his resignation. Israelis need to hold him accountable for the intelligence and military failures of October 7, as well as the conduct of the subsequent prisoner exchange negotiations and of the war. Not until Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition allies are defrocked will it be possible for the Israeli government to begin to restore its credibility both at home and abroad.
Tone it down at home too
Meanwhile, here in the United States we also need to lower the temperature. I have participated in two events at Johns Hopkins SAIS that were peaceful and thoughtful, if occasionally spirited, discussions of Gaza. But they were open only to our international affairs students, who quite rightly adopt analytical frames even when anger and other passions motivate them. And those discussions were a couple of weeks ago, before the Israeli move on Al Shifa Hospital that appears to have produced little evidence of Israeli allegations.
In the meanwhile, things have heated up on other US campuses, including even Johns Hopkins Medicine in Baltimore. The administration there has suspended a prominent physician for inappropriate remarks on social media. That is distressing. It used to be that most of us could encourage violence only in a limited circle of acquaintances. Now it can be done to thousands with a click on Twitter (the social media platform whose owner wants it called X and retweets anti-Semitic material).
We can hope things will cool off in the US Monday, after the Thanksiving holiday when most Americans try to be with close family and friends. It would be entirely out of keeping with the occasion to encourage hard feelings. We have a lot to be grateful for and good reason to recall those in both Israel and Palestine who have less.
Those who are saying they will never vote again for Joe Biden because of his support for Israel’s military action I hope will reconsider. Trump would take a much harder line. And for him “humanitarian” is a dirty word.
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Stevenson’s army, November 22
I thought this an interesting discussion of post-war “reconstruction” issues in Gaza, from Larry Garber and David Harden. It was originally posted on Americans for Peace Now.
– The Israeli government and Hamas have agreed to a limited truce and hostage exchange, and US officials appear to have given extensive background briefings. The Hill has a literal ticktock of the negotiations. NYT stresses political pressure on Biden.Politico reports the “secret cell” of planners. David Ignatius weighs in.
– Politico reports US provided data to try to prevent attacks on humanitarian sites.
– FT has poll showing US support for Israel much stronger than in other countries.
– Breaking Defense sees benefits in shift of Israel from EUCOM to CENTCOM.
– NYT tells of international efforts to limit autonomous drones.
– Poll shows declining US support for aid to Ukraine
On this 60th anniversary of the assassination of President Kennedy, WaPo remembers how people got the news.
And Happy Thanksgiving to all!
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 21
RollCall has the tentative Senate 2024 calendar — here
Senate voted to halt Azerbaijan aid.
Economist has story on Hamas financing.
CFR has links to background materials on international law and Gaza:
- What Is International Law?
- How Do Humanitarian Corridors, Cease-Fires, and Pauses Address Violence in Conflict?
- Summary of Resources on the Israel-Hamas War
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 16
– The Senate has formally insisted on a conference with the House on the NDAA instead of following the recent practice of reaching agreement informally. I’m not sure why the GOP wanted this, but one consequence is that a formal conference sets up a complex array of parliamentary moves in each house on amendments in disagreement and questions of scope — more than you need to know for class, but maybe fun to watch. One of the first steps may be instructing conferees. Another consequence is that final action is likely to be delayed because of the maneuvering and parliamentary requirements.
-SAIS Prof Chivvis has authored a thorough and valuable paper on The Role of Congress in US-Chinese relations.
-Politico’s China Watcher has a good summary of the Biden-Xi summit.
-CFR has good background on Biden’s IPEF, which fell short at the APEC meeting.
– WSJ says intercepts persuaded US intelligence of Hamas use of hospitals.
– WaPo says hostage deal looks promising.
-WaPo summarizes US opinion on Israel and Ukraine.
– Pew says 32% of Americans under 30 get their news from TikTok.
– NYT summarizes recent articles on Trump policy plans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 13
– The Hill looks at the budget fight as viewed by the House and by the Senate.
– Bloomberg says Netanyahu also faces a budget dilemma.
– WaPo details Hamas planning
– NYT contrasts Xi’s public statements in his first term with internal statements.
– WSJ reveals back channel maneuvers setting up Xi-Biden talks.
Charlie added these extras later:
– Matt Yglesias explains how the weakness of US political parties — and because the hyperpartisanship is negative rather than affective — prevents any significant challenges to Biden and Trump.
– Politico says US defense companies don’t like the Buy American requirements.
-Political scientists discuss possible occupation of Gaza.
-The history of human shield concerns goes back to the Franco-Prussian war and has been ideologically divisive ever since.
-Lawfare explains the formation of Israel’s wartime cabinet. [Historical note, when Churchill became prime minister in May 1940, he created and assumed the role of Minister of Defence, although there was no ministry of defence at the time.]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, Novemberr 10
– FT says Israel got warnings about Hamas.
– WaPo says Congress isn’t getting review of Israel aid
– US raises concerns about West Bank settlers
– House GOP still confused
– War Powers law has had good effect [a view I share]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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