Tag: Health
Peace Picks | October 5 – October 9, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Oil, Arms, Drones, and Regional Tensions: The Second Berlin Conference on Libya and Crafting a New Interim Government | October 5, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
With the War for Tripoli won in the late Spring by the defenders and a new mutually hurting stalemate taking hold around Jufra and Sirte over the course of the summer, the arena of Libya’s Wars of Post-Gaddafi Succession have shifted to cyberspace and the negotiating table. Amid a flurry of influence operations, attempts to manipulate media optics, and the Prime Minister pledging to go into retirement if a suitable successor is found, the last weeks of September witnessed a flurry of internationally-hosted mediation dialogues on Libya taking place in Morocco, Egypt, Geneva, and Russia. On October 5, a second virtual Berlin Conference is slated to tackle the interlocking issues of oil production, distribution of revenues, the arms embargo, mercenaries and the increasingly polarization among NATO allies with France and Greece on one side and Turkey on the other.
What are the possible trajectories of Libya’s conflict from here? What sort of entity might replace the GNA? What is the future of Libya’s economic system as new mechanisms for the distribution of oil revenues now being debated? How can international actors cooperate to prevent spoilers from scuppering progress?
Speakers:
Deborah Jones: Former US Ambassador to Libya
Wolfgang Pusztai: Former Austrian Military attache to Libya
Jason Pack: Founder, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI
Jonathan Winer, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI; former US Special Envoy to Libya
2. Foreign Policy and the 2020 Election: Implications for Europe | October 5, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:15 AM EDT | Brookings Institute| Register Here
With the 2020 election looming amidst a trend of U.S. disengagement with Europe, both the American presidency and the future of Europe are on the ballot in November. What are the implications of the presidential election for the trans-Atlantic relationship and for U.S. foreign policy toward Europe? Would a second Trump administration follow through on threats to abandon the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), leaving Europeans to their own devices on matters of security and defense? Would a Biden administration seek to rebuild bridges with its European partners, reverting even partially to a pre-Trump conception of America’s role in the world? And how would a geo-political Europe react to these changes?
On October 5, the Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) at Brookings will convene a panel discussion on the implications of the 2020 election for U.S. foreign policy, in particular toward Europe.
Speakers:
Célia Belin: Visiting Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
William A. Galston: Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Thomas Wright, moderator: Director – Center on the United States and EuropeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
3. Has Trumpian populism succeeded? | October 5, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The election of Donald Trump in 2016 brought a populist into the White House. With the president’s first term nearing completion, what is the verdict? Has populism been a force for good in economic policy during the Trump years? Will populism be a force for good in economic policy going forward? And what about populism on the political left?
University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan sees success, as described in his new book, “You’re Hired!: Untold Successes and Failures of a Populist President” (Republic Book Publishers, 2020). AEI economist Michael R. Strain has a different view, presented in his new book, “The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It)” (Templeton Press, 2020). Join them to discuss.
Speakers:
Casey Mulligan: Professor in Economics, University of Chicago
James Pethokoukis: DeWitt Wallace Fellow, AEI
Michael R. Strain: Director of Economic Policy Studies, AEI
4. What Does the Taliban Want? | October 6, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
Peace talks have begun between the Afghan government and the Taliban. One major question is how the Taliban, which is often vague about its goals beyond getting foreign troops out of Afghanistan, views key issues related to the peace process. This online-only event, organized by the Wilson Center’s Asia Program in partnership with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, will assess what we know–and don’t know–about the Taliban’s position on political systems, women’s rights, international terrorism, and its relationship with Pakistan; what this all may tell us about the Taliban’s future decisions and actions; and what the implications are for the peace process..
Speakers:
Ibraheem Bahiss: Independent Analyst
Malalai Bashir: Senior Journalist, Radio Azadi, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Afghan Service
Dr. Orzala Nemat: Director, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit
Rahimullah Yusufzai: Resident Editor, The News International
Abraham Denmark: Director, Asia Program
Michael Kugelman, moderator: Deputy Director and Senior Associate for South Asia
5. Online Event: Supporting Marginalized Groups amid Lebanon’s Cascading Crises | October 6, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Lebanon has been home to vulnerable communities for centuries, most recently becoming home to perhaps a million refugees fleeing the Syrian conflict. Now, as the country reels amid compounding economic, public health, and political crises, refugees join expatriate domestic workers and others among Lebanon’s most marginalized communities in facing heightened risk.
Sahar Atrache, Yasmin Kayali, and Banchi Yimer will join us for a discussion of the threats facing Lebanon’s most vulnerable communities, and what stakeholders can do to support and empower them. Throughout the event, participants are encouraged to submit questions to the guests and host, Jon B. Alterman, via the provided link.
Sahar Atrache is the senior advocate for the Middle East at Refugees International. Prior to joining Refugees International, Sahar was the senior advocacy officer at the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) and a senior analyst on the Middle East and North Africa at International Crisis Group.
Yasmin Kayali is the co-founder and CCO of Basmeh & Zeitooneh, a non-profit organization launched in 2012 that seeks to empower Syrians in exile to live lives of dignity. Basmeh & Zeitooneh designs and delivers effective relief, education, and livelihood and protection services to marginalized communities from six centers across Lebanon.
Banchi Yimer is a former domestic worker who lived in Lebanon for nearly a decade. Alongside fellow Ethiopian migrant workers, she founded Egna Legna (“Us for Ourselves”), a community-based organization working on migrant domestic workers’ issues and women’s issues in Lebanon and Ethiopia.
Speakers:
Sahar Atrache: Senior Advocate for the Middle East, Refugees International
Yasmin Kayali: Co-founder and CCO, Basmeh and Zeitooneh
Banchi Yimer: Founder and Director, Egna Legna
6. Public Opinion, Annexation, and Normalization: A 2020 Zogby Research Poll | October 7, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
In 2019 and 2020, Zogby Research Services polled in several Arab countries and Israel to assess attitudes on a number of topics related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Arab Peace Initiative, and the desirability of normalization before a final resolution of the conflict. The findings collected were surprising and instructive of a nuanced change in attitudes.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the polling data and the potential implications they have on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Speakers:
Khaled Elgindy: Director, Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman: President, Foundation for Middle East Peace
James Zogby: Managing director, Zogby Research Services; founder and president, Arab American Institute
Paul Salem, moderator: President, MEI
7. Ten Years of Pan-Arab Protests: Understanding the New Dynamics of Change | October 7, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
In 2019 and early 2020, the Middle East and North Africa witnessed widespread protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon, and Iraq marking a decade since the Arab uprisings started in 2010. As the COVID-19 pandemic spread, these movements largely subsided under strict, temporary lockdowns. However, the coronavirus exacerbated socioeconomic conditions and inequalities, thus provoking renewed street demonstrations in Lebanon and Iraq as well as other countries across the region such as Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan. As MENA governments grapple with the adverse economic impact of the pandemic and the deterioration of public services, more popular unrest is likely to erupt. In this timely discussion, former Wilson Fellow, analyst and journalist Rami Khouri, offers an in-depth comparative analysis of the 2019 protest movements in Algeria, Sudan, Lebanon and Iraq in dialogue with Middle East Program fellow Marina Ottaway and Bard College professor and Jadaliyya co-editor Ziad Abu Rish.
Speakers:
Rami Khouri: Former Public Policy Scholar; Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut, columnist, Agence Global Syndicate, USA, and The New Arab, London and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ziad Abu-Rish: Co-Director, MA Program in Human Rights and the Arts, Bard College; Co-Editor, Jadaliyya
Merissa Khurma, moderator: Program Manager, Middle East Program
8. From the Sidelines of Nagorno-Karabakh: Georgia, Russia, and Turkey | October 7, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has faced its largest eruption of fighting since a 1994 ceasefire partially brokered by the United States. Previous escalations between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces have been smothered within a few days. However, the current hostilities continue to escalate and the possibility of a large scale war between the two states is becoming more likely. Russia has historically supported Armenia while maintaining close relations with both former Soviet republics. On the other hand, Turkey has announced its unconditional support of Azerbaijan and appears to be ready to provide military capabilities to the Azeris. Georgia has always maintained close neighborly relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and now has expressed its willingness to facilitate a peaceful resolution.
What are the regional consequences of a full out war between Armenia and Azerbaijan? What role do Turkey, Russia, and Georgia play in the conflict? What are the factors that inhibit long-standing peace? Why does the conflict concern the United States?
Speakers:
Neil Hauer: Non-resident scholar, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
Victor Kipiani: Chair, Geocase
Maxim A. Suchkov: Non-resident scholar, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
Gonul Tol, moderator: Director of Turkey Program; senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
9. Lessons from Africa: Building Resilience through Community-Based Health Systems | October 8, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM EDT | Wilson Center | Register Here
COVID-19 has revealed shortcomings in the health systems of countries all over the world. In sub-Saharan Africa, the health crisis threatens to severely curtail already limited public health services and exacerbate fragility. Yet, despite immense hurdles, past crises have shown that innovative decision-making and locally-led interventions can go a long way in improving the resilience and responsiveness of health systems. Please join the Wilson Center, in partnership with the Population Institute, for a discussion with experts on the role of trust in enabling crisis response and how a more holistic approach to access to services in addition to healthcare, like girls’ education and maternal health, ultimately increases the resilience of at-risk communities.
Speakers:
Mohammed Abdulaziz: Head of Division, Disease Control and Prevention, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention
Uzma Alam, PhD: Researcher, Africa Institute for Health Policy Foundation; Senior Program Officer, Africa Academy of Sciences
Juliet Nabyonga-Orem, PhD: Team Lead, Health Financing and Investment, Universal Health Coverage/Life Course Cluster, World Health Organization
Dr. Raj Panjabi: CEO, Last Mile Health; Assistant Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School and the Division of Global Health Equity at Brigham & Women’s Hospital
Ambassador Deborah R. Malac: Former U.S. Ambassador to Uganda and former U.S. Ambassador to Liberia; Career Foreign Service Officer, U.S. Department of State; Senior Fellow, Population Institute
Sarah B. Barnes, moderator:Project Director, Maternal Health Initiative
10. Can Teaching Students Real Debate Reduce Political Polarization? | October 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the midst of a highly polarized election, with an already polarized electorate, it may seem there is little hope for bridging the deep divisions in American society.
Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Robert Litan argues that teaching middle school and high school students the principles of competitive debate will make for more informed citizens and voters. Litan’s new book, “Resolved: How Debate Can Revolutionize Education and Help Save our Democracy,” makes the case for teaching middle school and high school students how to have reasoned debates where the participants use evidence and reason to constructively engage in civil discourse.
On October 9, Litan will be joined by Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at Brookings, and Norman Ornstein, AEI resident scholar, to explore how the principles of competitive debate can improve students’ lifelong work skills while making them more informed and demanding voters, and whether an engaged electorate will in turn change the way political candidates campaign for the better, improving–and maybe even saving–our democracy.
Speakers:
Robert E. Litan: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Economic Studies
Norm Ornstein: Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute
Darrell M. West: Vice President and Director – Governance Studies, Senior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation
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Peace Picks | September 28 – October 2, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Political, Security, and Public Health Dimensions in the Horn of Africa | September 28, 2020 | 3:00 – 4:30 PM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
The Horn of Africa continues to face multiple challenges from persistent terrorism and militancy threats to significant global warming repercussions. A country of significant U.S. and international state-building and counterterrorism investments, Somalia continues to struggle with increasing al-Shabaab militancy, a security situation in which Ethiopia, Kenya, and other members of the African Union Mission in Somalia play important counterinsurgency roles. Yet Somalia and Ethiopia are also undergoing large and challenging political transitions. Ethiopia, too, faces the rise of escalating intra-ethnic tensions and political violence. The entire region has become a place of difficult competition among regional and great powers. Layered over these issues, the coronavirus pandemic has devastated local economies, exacerbating already high levels of poverty. Moreover, it has further destabilized fragile, fractious, and explosive political processes.
On September 28, the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will hold a panel discussion to explore these complex and overlapping issues. The panel will feature Director of Programmes of the United Nations University’s Centre for Policy Research Adam Day, Brookings Senior Fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown, United States Institute of Peace Senior Advisor Payton Knopf, Institute for Security Studies Senior Researcher Allan Ngari, and Brookings Nonresident Fellow Zach Vertin. Brookings Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon will moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Adam Day: Director of Programmes – Centre for Policy Research, United Nations University
Vanda Felbab-Brown: Co-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Payton Knopf: Senior Advisor – United States Institute of Peace
Allan Ngari: Senior Researcher, Complex Threats in Africa Programme – Institute for Security Studies
Zach Vertin: Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Michael E. O’Hanlon (moderator): Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
2. 2020 Election Integrity and Foreign Interference | September 29, 2020 | 3:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As part of our Interference 2020 effort, please join the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) on September 29 from 3:00 – 4:00 pm ET for a timely discussion of recent allegations of foreign interference in the 2020 election. The event will be opened by Craig Newmark, who has worked to uplift journalism in the face of disinformation, as well as connect efforts working to counter destabilizing foreign interference. The discussion will feature POLITICO’s Natasha Bertrand and David Sanger of the New York Times on their experience covering foreign interference ahead of the election and their process when assessing credibility of interference claims and attribution.
The DFRLab will also launch the Foreign Interference Attribution Tracker, an open-source database that captures allegations of foreign interference in U.S. elections. This event will offer a first look at the tool which is intended to build public attribution standards, provide an independent and reliable record of foreign interference in the 2020 election, serve as a resource for stakeholders about the evolving threat, and help to build public resilience against future efforts of foreign influence and disinformation.
Disinformation poses an existential threat to the future of American democracy. Nowhere is this more evident than in the question of foreign interference: a phenomenon which is heavily dependent on the spread of disinformation, yet which is also increasingly the subject of it. Over the past nine months, numerous U.S. officials, agencies, technology companies, and civil society organizations have identified instances of foreign disinformation campaigns and social media manipulation—often using drastically different standards of evidence to make their case.
We hope you will join us online and in the effort ahead of U.S. elections.
Speakers:
Craig Newmark: Founder: Craigslist, Craig Newmark Philanthropies
David Sanger: National Security Correspondent, New York Times
Natasha Bertrand: National Security Correspondent, POLITICO
Emerson Brooking: Resident Fellow, Digital Forensics Research Lab
Graham Brookie: Director and Managing Editor, Digital Forensics Research Lab
3. Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Presidential Election | September 30, 2020 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Please join the CSIS Transnational Threats Project and Defending Democratic Institutions Project on Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 1:30pm to discuss the domestic terrorism threat in the United States before, during, and after the 2020 presidential election. The panel will examine the domestic terrorism threat landscape; the role of security and law enforcement; the use and misuse of military force, including legal provisions governing violence mitigation; the spread of extremism on digital platforms; and the role of foreign actors.
Seth Jones, CSIS Harold Brown Chair and Director of the Transnational Threats Project and Suzanne Spaulding, Senior Adviser for Homeland Security to the International Security Program will be joined by Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Adviser to the RAND President, RAND as well as Cathy Lanier, Senior Vice President, Chief Security Officer, National Football League (NFL), and former Chief of Police, Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia.
Speakers:
Brian Michael Jenkins: Senior Adviser to the RAND President, RAND
Cathy Lanier: Senior Vice President, Chief Security Officer, National Football League (NFL); and former Chief of Police, Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia
4. Envisioning COVID-19’s Legacy on Global Stability and Security | September 30, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has taken lives, devastated the world economy, and threatened the fabric of politics around the world. As Henry Kissinger warned, “The coronavirus epidemic will forever alter the world order.” So what will a post-COVID-19 world order look like? In their new book, “COVID-19 and World Order” (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2020), AEI’s Hal Brands and Francis Gavin of Johns Hopkins University convened leading experts in policy, economics, governance, international security, medicine, and technology to consider the international aftermath of the pandemic.
Please join AEI’s Hal Brands, Kori Schake, and Colin Dueck for a panel discussion with Elizabeth Economy and Francis Gavin to examine COVID-19’s legacy on global stability and security.
Speakers:
Hal Brands: Resident Scholar, AEI
Elizabeth C. Economy: Senior Fellow for China Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Francis J. Gavin: Director of Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI
Colin Dueck: Visiting Scholar, AEI
5. The Future of US Policy in Afghanistan | September 30, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
Over the course of the past 19 years of war in Afghanistan, successive American presidents and presidential candidates have promised to make ending the war and bringing troops home a priority. While the U.S.-Taliban deal signed in February and the intra-Afghan peace talks that began earlier this month in Doha offer a path toward complete U.S. withdrawal, the talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government will be long and difficult and a successful deal between the two parties is far from guaranteed. Questions also remain regarding whether the Taliban did indeed cut off ties with al-Qaida, as outlined in the U.S.-Taliban deal.
On September 30, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a virtual event to assess political and security developments in Afghanistan, U.S. interests in the country, and foreign policy options for the next administration to pursue.
Viewers can submit questions via email to events@brookings.edu or via Twitter at #Policy2020.
Policy 2020 events aim to empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, non-partisan information so they can better understand the policy matters discussed in the 2020 election.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: Assistant Professor, School of Public Policy – David M. Rubenstein Fellow: Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Vanda Felbab-Brown: Co-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Michael O’Hanlon: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
6. Turning Black to Green | September 30, 2020 | 17:00—18:00 EEST (UTC+3) | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While September 2020 marks 100 years since the Proclamation of the State of Greater Lebanon, the country today is plagued by a myriad of crises. This may prove a critical inflection point for Lebanon as a whole. The Carnegie Middle East Center and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung are hosting a four-part series of panel discussions, which will look at where Lebanon stands on its Centennial, as well as the opportunities and challenges for the new century.
Lebanon is endowed with a rich and diverse national ecosystem, and has the potential and responsibility to fight pollution and deforestation, while investing in green spaces and clean energy. Moving forward, how can Lebanon ensure that the environment does not take a back seat in its national priorities, given the many other pressing issues facing the country today?
Join us on Tuesday, September 29 from 5:00-6:00 p.m. Beirut (GMT+3) for this fourth panel discussion on Lebanon’s environmental concerns and potential. The event will be held in English. Viewers may submit their questions via the Live Chat feature on YouTube during the livestream.
Speakers:
Ziad Abi Chaker: CEO of Cedar Environmental.
Marc Ayoub: research assistant with the Energy Policy and Security department at the American University of Beirut.
Nada Ghorayeb Zarour: former president of the Lebanese Green Party and the current head of its Arbitration Council.
Dalal Mawad: award-winning journalist and senior MENA video producer and correspondent with the Associated Press.
7. Regional Expansionism: Iran’s Militias in the Levant | October 1, 2020 | 1:00 PM EDT | Atlantic Council| Register Here
The United States’ policy towards Iran is one of the most contentious foreign policy issues currently dividing Democrats and Republicans in the 2020 election season. While containing Iran’s nuclear activity is a priority for both parties, it remains unclear how either one plans to deal with Iranian-backed militias, which remain a threat to lasting stability in the Middle East and a danger to America and its allies’ national security interests.
Speakers:
Joel Rayburn:Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Levant and Special Envoy for Syria, US Department of State
Michael B. Herzog: Milton Fine International Fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Ariane Tabatabai: Middle East Fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Hamdi Malik: Middle East Analyst; Contributor, Iran International TV; Al-Monitor
Navvar Saban: Conflict Analyst and Expert; Nonresident Researcher, Omran Center for Strategic Studies; Orsam Center
8. Election 2020 U.S. Foreign Policy Forum | October 1, 2020 | 3:00 PM EDT | Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Between the first and second presidential debates, please join us for a discussion of the foreign policy challenges awaiting the winner of the 2020 election and the critical issues for Americans to consider as they cast their vote this November.
This event is free and open to all. To register, please sign up on the Eventbrite page. Zoom access instructions will be emailed to registrants on the evening of Wednesday, September 30.
Speakers:
Reuben E. Brigety II: Vice-Chancellor and President, University of the South; Former U.S. Representative to the African Union and U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN Economic Commission for Africa (2013–2015)
Richard N. Haass: President, Council on Foreign Relations; Former Special Assistant to President George H.W. Bush (1989–1993)
Jami Miscik: CEO and Vice Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Inc.; Former Co-Chair, President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (2014–2017); Former Deputy Director of Intelligence, CIA (2002–2005)
Frances Fragos Townsend: Vice Chairman, General Counsel, and Chief Administration Officer, MacAndrews & Forbes Incorporated; Former Assistant to President George W. Bush for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and Chair, Homeland Security Council (2004–2008)
Juju Chang: Co-anchor, Nightline, ABC News
9. Overcoming Polarization in Ukraine | October 2, 2020 | 10:00 AM EDT | Atlantic Council| Register Here
Since Ukraine first gained independence in 1991, historical memory and national identity have been a point of contention and subject for manipulation. Thanks in good part to Kremlin aggression, a real sense of Ukrainian identity has emerged in the center and east of the country, too. Yet, the memory war that has characterized Ukraine for the past three decades has not disappeared. And it has been exacerbated by Kremlin disinformation campaigns. The Kremlin has inflamed controversy over historical narratives, weaponizing history in the unsuccessful effort to undermine Ukrainian statehood. A groundbreaking recent report by the London School of Economics and Political Science’s (LSE) Arena program, From ‘Memory Wars’ to a Common Future: Overcoming Polarisation in Ukraine, outlines the scope of challenges facing Ukraine’s information environment along with comprehensive recommendations for reducing societal polarization.
Speakers:
Anne Applebaum: Director, Arena, LSE
Natalia Gumenyuk: Co-founder, Public Interest Journalism Lab
Peter Pomerantsev: Visiting Senior Fellow, Institute of Global Affairs, LSE
Yevhen Hlibovytsky: Founder, ProMova
Ambassador John Herbst: Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
10. Disinformed Democracy: The Past, Present, and Future of Information Warfare | October 2, 2020 | 9:15 AM – 1:0 PM EDT | Brookings | Register Here
In 2016, Russian operatives waged an information war, including cyberattacks and inauthentic social media campaigns, designed to stoke political divisions and undermine the U.S. presidential election. Before they became front-page news, Russian influence operations had existed for decades. But in recent years, a range of domestic and international factors — in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere — have spotlighted the dangers of information manipulation campaigns, which now threaten the 2020 election. These drivers, alongside a rapidly evolving information technology and communications landscape, necessitate innovative policy ideas and a whole-of-society approach to protect democratic societies.
On October 2, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a virtual conference to examine the past, present, and future of disinformation and efforts to combat it. Following welcome remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Brookings Senior Fellow Fiona Hill and former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster will frame the event with a conversation on McMaster’s new book, “Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World.” Then, Hill and Brookings Fellow and Deputy Director of the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative Chris Meserole will moderate three panel discussions on the history of Russian influence operations leading up to 2016, the domestic factors that contribute to disinformation and other threats to democracy, and novel strategies for combatting information warfare in the future.
Speakers and Schedule:
Welcome remarks
John Allen: President – The Brookings Institution
Opening conversation: How disinformation threatens world order
H.R. McMaster: Former U.S. National Security Advisor, Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Panel 1: The road to Russian interference in 2016
Catherine Belton: Special Correspondent – Reuters
Arkady Ostrovsky: Russia and Eastern Europe Editor – The Economist
Thomas Rid: Professor of Strategic Studies – Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
David Shimer: Global Fellow – Woodrow Wilson International Center for ScholarsAssociate Fellow – Yale University
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and
Panel 2: Domestic drivers of disinformation
Renee DiResta: Research Manager – Stanford Internet Observatory
Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies
Kate Starbird: Associate Professor, Human Centered Design & Engineering – University of Washington
Chris Meserole: Deputy Director – Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, Fellow – Foreign Policy
Panel 3: Novel strategies for countering information warfare
Eileen Donahoe: Executive Director – Global Digital Policy Incubator, Stanford University; Former U.S. Ambassador – United Nations Human Rights Council
Thomas Kent: Adjunct Associate Professor of International and Public Affairs – Columbia University
Daniel Kimmage: Principal Deputy Coordinator, Global Engagement Center – U.S. Department of State
Teija Tiilikainen: Director – European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE)
Fiona Hill: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
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She’s terrible but can’t do much more harm
Lots of things are wrong with the nomination of a diehard originalist, anti-abortion activist, and Trump enthusiast to “replace” on the Supreme Court the justice who made women equal under the law in the United States. But I incline to the view that the damage Amy Coney Barrett can do is limited, even if she opts–as is likely–to make decisions that toe the conservative line. Here’s why:
- Abortion: If Barrett joins other conservatives on the Court in reversing Roe v Wade or allowing very strict limits on abortion, the issue will be then be decided by the states. Abortion is not going to become illegal throughout the country. Blue states will continue to legalize it. Some red states will severely restrict or prohibit it. If you live in a red state and don’t like that, wake up and vote.
- Obamacare: If she becomes the deciding vote against the constitutionality of the current system for providing health insurance to the uninsured, the Democrats will move swiftly to pass Medicare for All. Provided they gain control of both the House and Senate, which seems likely at the moment, the Republicans will have unintentionally done universal health care a big favor.
- Guns: It’s a bit hard for me to see how the gun lobby can make any gains over the already unconstrained availability of firearms. At some point, minorities and liberal whites will begin carrying guns to protect themselves from the Boogaloo Boys. Then the conservatives will think again about the need for gun safety. That’s not a pretty picture, but it is a realistic one.
- Immigration: Here too it is difficult to see how things can get much worse, in particular for refugees wanting resettlement in the US and immigrants seeking asylum from well-founded fears of persecution. The conditions in which people, especially children separated from their parents, are detained are already appalling. The failure of the Republicans to provide an option for undocumented children (DACA) brought to the US by their parents is inexcusable. The refusal of visas to Muslims and black people as well as restrictions on international students are going to wreck tourism and higher education in the US, even after Covid19 is under control. Lifting of temporary protected status for people who have been in the US for decades is simply cruel.
- Affirmative action: The Court has already made achieving diversity in college admissions and employment far more difficult than it should be, but it seems unlikely even a more conservative court will eliminate affirmative action entirely. Many companies and universities–especially the better ones–are wanting more diverse staff and student bodies. They will find the ways and means to get them or fall victim to the competition.
- Religious freedom: Barrett belongs to a Christian community, the People of Praise, who describe themselves as charismatic and ecumenical (as in Christian ecumenical). She is thought to have committed herself to its “covenant,” which has not to my knowledge been published. We can expect her to come down on the side of those who favor the rights of religious communities over the rights of individuals, for example by allowing them to deny abortion rights under their employee health plans. But the Court has already moved far in that direction. Her voice will be an added one to the conservative majority.
Barrett describes herself as an “originalist” in the mold of her mentor, the late Justice Scalia. Whatever this label once meant, it now allows its adherents to decide just about anything the right wing of the political establishment wants: restrictions on a woman’s right to control her own body, an individual right to bear arms outside the context of a “well-ordered” militia, restrictions on the decisions of universities and companies about which students and employees will serve their purposes best, harsh treatment of immigrants, denial of government-subsidized health insurance to tens of millions of Americans, and a preference for religious communities over the rights of individuals.
So yes, Amy Coney Barrett is a terrible choice for the Supreme Court and will live up to all the negative expectations people like me have of her. With a 6/3 right-wing majority the Court will lose the respect of the more than half the country that will vote for Joe Biden and want him to appoint Ginzburg’s successor. But a lot of the damage Barrett might cause has already been done. I doubt she can do a lot more.
PS: I realize I failed to consider the impact of Barrett, if confirmed before the election, on its outcome. Judging from past performance on the Court, all the Republican-appointed judges will favor Trump’s election in any case that gets to the Court. So Barrett’s appointment does not change the majority on election issues either.
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Landslide is the only solution
Bob Woodward’s confirmation that President Trump lied about the seriousness of Covid19 is no surprise. Anyone with a functioning brain knows that by now. But getting the admission on tape, along with the fact that the source of some of the information on contagiousness of the virus was Chinese President Xi, was a journalistic coup. It would have been even more so had Woodward published it earlier, but he claims he wanted to save it for his book because that afforded him the longer form to provide fuller context. It also of course helps him market his product.
In a rational world, Woodward’s revelation would end Trump’s ability to market himself. His “playing down” the virus cost more something like 150,000 lives, so far. Shutdowns, masks and social distancing earlier and more consistently would have saved about that many. People are still dying as a result of Trump’s neglect of the most important Presidential responsibility: to protect Americans. This appalling dereliction of duty has had real world consequences.
It is hard for me to imagine how anyone could vote for a President who did such a thing. His achievements are easy to list: appointing supposedly conservative but too often unqualified judges, a massive tax cut for the rich, and validation of white nationalism as a political force in the United States. His failures, in addition to his mendacious response to Covid19, take longer:
- Inability to cope with social justice protests in a productive way and encouragement of violence and threats of violence against peaceful protesters.
- A collapsed economy that even before the epidemic was growing no faster than in President Obama’s last three years.
- A ballooning budget deficit, again even before the epidemic hit.
- Unfounded attacks on the right to vote.
- Repeated efforts to deprive millions of Americans of the health insurance they obtained from Obamacare, without providing an alternative.
- Failure in the trade war with China, which has cost the US government many billions in agricultural and other subsidies to offset the export losses due to tariffs.
- Accelerated Iranian progress towards nuclear weapons, entirely due to Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal.
- North Korean refusal to give up their nuclear weapons, despite offers of massive economic assistance.
- Consolidation of President Maduro’s power in Venezuela.
Trump wants you to think that withdrawal of a few thousand troops from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the Israel/UAE deal were big achievements. Far from it: the US still has more troops in the greater Middle East than before he took office. The UAE/Israel deal only contributes to peace between two countries who have never been at war and have precious little reason to fight. It makes an Israel/Palestine deal more difficult, not less.
Even before the latest headlines, Jeffrey Goldberg had assembled the evidence of Trump’s disdain for the American military. That, too, was well-known to anyone paying attention to Trump’s mythical bonespurs and his public denunciation of John McCain, but the things Trump has said in private about the troops being “losers” and “suckers” compounded what some might have hoped to dismiss as misdemeanors into felonies. Polling of America’s troops suggests that they will be voting against a Republican for the first time in a long while.
The right thing for Trump to do now is resign and allow Pence to take over, hoping that would improve Republican prospects in the November 3 election. He could then re-assume the office and would be hard to fault for doing so, as the voice of the people would have been heard. He won’t do that, because he can’t afford to lose this election or even leave office for a few months. Both his finances and his freedom are at risk, because the Russians won’t continue anteing up and state Attorneys General will be indicting him on felony charges. So instead he will stay on the ballot and try to de-legitimize the election results, especially if they show him winning on election night but losing due to mail-in ballots a couple of days later.
The only way of preventing that is a landslide in favor of Biden, starting on election night. Even then, Trump may try to prevent Biden from getting a majority in the Electoral College by convincing Republican governors to withhold communication of their electoral votes. But a clear and unequivocal electoral vote victory, in addition to Biden’s all but certain popular vote margin, would do a great deal to save America from a chaotic outcome.
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Stevenson’s army, June 29
– NYT has more details of how US forces came to suspect Russian bounties to the Taliban. While the president says the IC didn’t find it credible, note what NYT says:
One senior administration official offered a similar explanation, saying that Mr. Trump was not briefed because the intelligence agencies had come to no consensus on the findings.
But another official said there was broad agreement that the intelligence assessment was accurate, with some complexities because different aspects of the intelligence — including interrogations and surveillance data — resulted in some differences among agencies in how much confidence to put in each type.
Though the White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, claimed on Saturday that Mr. Trump had not been briefed about the intelligence report, one American official had told The Times that the report was briefed to the highest levels of the White House. Another said it was included in the President’s Daily Brief, a compendium of foreign policy and national security intelligence compiled for Mr. Trump to read.
Ms. McEnany did not challenge The Times’s reporting on the existence of the intelligence assessment, a National Security Council interagency meeting about it in late March and the White House’s inaction. Multiple other news organizations also subsequently reported on the assessment, and The Washington Post first reported on Sunday that the bounties were believed to have resulted in the death of at least one American service member.
– Academic studies say Fox News is hazardous to your health.
– Jim Fallows does thought experiment, analyzing US response to the coronavirus as if it were NTSB investigation of a plane crash.
– NYT columnist agrees with Princeton prof that our “napalm politics” began in 1980s with Newt Gingrich. I agree, too.
– WSJ says China will dominate rare earths.
– CFR has explainer on China’s new security laws.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, May 1
-WaPo says the administration is developing a package of anti-China measures,
many extreme and unprecedented, like demanding reparations for pandemic
costs and refusing to pay interest on Chinese-held US bonds.[As I said
in class, I support vigorous US measures to thwart Chinese military
expansion and to compete economically, especially in advanced
technologies. But I resent Trump’s weaponizing these measures mainly for
his political campaign and as a distraction from his delays and
failures handling the pandemic.]
– Part of this effort, NYT reports, is pressuring the intelligence community to prove Chinese culpability for release of the coronavirus.
– And SecState Pompeo was already in a pissing contest with Beijing.
– WSJ profiles national security adviser O’Brien, who says NSC staff is now down to the 120s.
– Yes, the FISA court consists of Article III [life-tenured] federal judges.
– NYT reports that Zoom sessions can be bad for your health.
And while I’m in a grumpy mood, how about this:
Lawmakers Vote by Mail to Roll Back Vote by Mail
April 30, 2020 at 3:10 pm EDT
“An emergency plan for Louisiana’s delayed spring elections was approved by the state Legislature after Republican lawmakers rolled back an expansion of mail-in ballots for people concerned about the coronavirus,” the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.
“Lawmakers voted by mail on the emergency plan.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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