Tag: Human Rights

Peace Picks|February 17-23

Posted in Yuanyi Liu - February 17, 2020 - 0 Comment

Understanding China’s Economic Slowdown: Countering Belt and Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation| February 18, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here

Amid a time of open challenges to the United States for strategic and economic leadership in the Indo-Pacific by General Secretary Xi Jinping, China’s economic growth is at its slowest pace since 1992. Through the development of political and economic plans such as the Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China 2025, China is attempting to set global development standards while simultaneously increasing other nations’ dependence on China’s technologies and its financial and developmental practices.

What is the significance of the Chinese economic slowdown and its implication for the U.S. and its allies? How can we accurately assess Chinese strengths and weaknesses, and how do we more effectively counter Beijing’s policies and actions that undermine U.S. and allied interests?

Join Hudson Institute for a conversation with experts on what China’s attempts to redefine development standards and practices means for the United States in the era of great power competition. The event will draw on John Lee’s recent report, China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Allies and his upcoming report, Ambition and Overreach: Countering One Belt One Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation.

Speakers:

Patrick Cronin: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Thomas Duesterberg: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Nicholas Lardy: Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute

John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

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Censorship and Self-Censorship in Russia| February 18, 2020 | 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM | Wilson Center | Register Here

State control on information and media and aggressive pressure on journalists seeking to maintain their independence are critical elements of the modern Russian state. Although the Russian constitution has an article expressly prohibiting censorship, in reality censorship is a constant factor in the life of the Russian media. Censorship is carried out both directly and indirectly by state pressure and through self-censorship by journalists. In partnership with IREX, the Kennan Institute will host three well-known Russian publicists, analysts, and commentators, Konstantin Sonin, Konstantin Eggert, and Gleb Cherkasov, to discuss censorship and self-censorship in Russia and its role in Russian society.

Speakers:

Konstantin Sonin: John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy

Konstantin Eggert: Independent journalist, political analysts and communication consultant

Gleb Cherkasov: Journalist; Former Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Kommersant

Sergey Parkhomenko: Senior Advisor, Jounalist, “Echo of Moscow” Radio; Former Editor-in-Chief, Itogi, Vokrug Sveta

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Ending Our Endless War in Afghanistan: Washington Perspectives on a U.S.-Taliban Agreement| February 18, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

After over a year of intensive talks, press reports indicate that an official agreement between the U.S. and Taliban is imminent. The agreement reportedly begins with an immediate reduction in violence by all sides, followed by the signing of a U.S.-Taliban agreement. This would lead to intra-Afghan peace negotiations, accompanied by a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops. Implementing and verifying each step in this process will require meticulous diplomacy, but this reported agreement could mark a major turning point in the effort to end the war in Afghanistan.

Speakers:

The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley: Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace; former National Security Advisor

The Honorable Michele Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors

Ambassador Douglas Lute: Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to NATO

Ambassador Richard Olson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace; former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan

Scott Smith: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace

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Conservative Nationalism in the Age of Trump| February 20, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here

The driving force of nationalism within the Republican party is squarely in the spotlight, with the U.S. 2020 elections in sight and questions of how the United States will approach diplomatic, economic, and military issues in the balance. In his new book, Age of Iron: On Conservative Nationalism, Colin Dueck examines the strengths and weaknesses of President Trump’s foreign policy and the overarching role of conservative nationalism in the past, present, and future of U.S. foreign policy. He will be joined in conversation by Danielle Pletka and Richard Fontaine, with Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis as moderator.

Speakers:

Colin Dueck is a professor in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and a non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

Richard Fontaine is the chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

Danielle Pletka is a senior fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where she focuses on U.S. foreign policy generally and the Middle East specifically.

Ashley J. Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

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Bridging strategies: Infrastructure efforts in Southeast Asia in an era of great power competition| February 20, 2020 | 12:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here

As the geographical heart of the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia will play a critical role in determining the region’s political, military, and economic trajectory for decades to come. As a rapidly growing region home to more than 655 million people, Southeast Asia has become a priority destination for US and Japanese infrastructure investment in the Indo-Pacific, as well as Chinese infrastructure efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

How do these regional infrastructure projects fit into intensifying strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific? Are the new G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure compatible or competitive with China’s BRI? How can the US, Japan, and other likeminded allies and partners best operationalize these principles in the region? Ultimately, what are the geopolitical and security implications of the evolving infrastructure investment landscape across the Indo-Pacific?

The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders.

Speakers:

Mr. Bart W. Edes: Representative of the North American Office, Asian Development Bank

Mr. Jonathan Hillman: Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Mr. Makoto Lyori: Visiting Fellow, Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council

Dr. Miyeon Oh: Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council

Ms. Shannon Tiezzi: Editor-in-Chief, The Diplomat

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The Impact of the Conflict on Human Rights in Syria| February 20, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University | Register Here

The Commissioners of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic (Chair Professor Paulo Pinheiro, Commissioner Karen Abuzayd and Commissioner Hanny Megally) will discuss recent conflict dynamics in Syria and their impact on the human rights situation. In this context, the Commission will discuss their recently published report on child rights violations. 

Speakers:

Paulo Sergio Pinheiro: A Chairman of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria

Karen Koning Abuzayd: A Commissioner of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria

Hanny Megally: A senior fellow at the New York University Center on International Cooperation

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The Crisis in Syria’s Idlib| February 21, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Nearly 600,000 people have been displaced in northwestern Syria in the last two months, in what is now the biggest humanitarian crisis in nine years of war. The brutal military assault being conducted by the Syrian government, Russia and Iran shows no signs of abating and has in recent weeks sparked direct and deadly clashes between Syrian and Turkish troops. Hospitals and schools continue to be struck from the air, IDP camps have reached capacity and humanitarian agencies are warning of an impending humanitarian disaster. 

Since the Syrian government and its allies began an offensive on Idlib in the Spring of 2019, approximately 25% of the opposition-controlled territory has fallen – roughly 75% still remains. Amid this ongoing crisis and unprecedented levels of civilian displacement and human suffering, the international community appears to have been rendered powerless. The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel discussion on the situation in Idlib, in order to discuss the nature of the crisis and the international response; the geopolitical dynamics at play; concerns over terrorism; and what possible paths might exist to resolve the situation. 

Speakers:

Zaher Sahloul: President and Founder, MedGlobal

Elizabeth Tsurkov: Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute

Charles Lister: Senior Fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, MEI

Alexander Marquardt: Senior national correspondent, CNN

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Accountability now

Posted in Yuanyi Liu - February 8, 2020 - 0 Comment

During Syria’s conflict, the Assad regime has continued committing many war crimes. Although de-escalation zones were established to mitigate conflict violence, the number of displaced Syrians increased. On February 5, Arab Center Washington DC hosted a panel discussion and a book review on the topic of Accountability in Syria: Achieving Transitional Justice in a Postconflict Society. The discussion involved three speakers: Radwan Ziadeh, a senior fellow for the Arab Center Washington DC, Mai El-Sadany, the legal and judicial director at the Tahrir Institute, and Mohammad Alaa Ghanem, a Syrian academic and pro-democracy campaigner.

War crimes

Ziadeh noted that because justice and accountability are left out in the Geneva and Astana talks, he wrote the book Accountability in Syria to call for attention to war atrocities and raise the issue of accountability. He listed five crimes that the Assad regime has committed in the last eight years.

  1. Use of air force: Opposition areas have been exposed to heavy, systematic, widespread, and indiscriminate bombing. While only 1% of victims killed by barrel bombs are opposition but 99% of victims are civilians. Other governments have failed to prevent the Syrian government from utilizing barrel bombs.
  2. Use of prohibited weapons: The Assad regime has utilized prohibited chemical weapons 37 times.
  3. Siege: Half a million of Syrians live besieged by Assad’s “surrender or starve” strategy.
  4. Torture and sectarian crimes: The regime carried out systematic torture at its secret prisons.
  5. Forced displacement: Displacement aims to remove people who have been disloyal. Forced displacement induces both the demographic change and the flight of Syrian refugees.

Forced displacement

Ghanem says that ceasefires, such as the Idlib and Daraa de-escalation zones, are a prelude to liquidation. Political analysts in Washington misunderstood ceasefires, which they thought would constitute a win-win solution that could empower local communities. Instead, ceasefires emboldened and benefited Assad’s regime, which used them to induce demographic change. He presented three purposes of ceasefires:

  1. Ceasefires have helped the Assad regime to conquer more territories by setting up a 1-2 year de-escalation period to relinquish oppositions’ heavy weapons and evacuate fighters.
  2. Ceasefires serve to relieve shortage of Assad’s manpower by freeing up regime resources to focus on other priority areas.
  3. Ceasefires provide an illusion of political process by designating areas for reconstruction while permitting the regime to commit systematic sectarian cleansing.

Remedies

El-Sadany argues that it’s time for justice now. Three tools are available for accountability:

  1. Documentation: Civil society, journalists, and lawyers should act together to preserve history and contribute to truth. For example, the New York Times utilizes open source investigation.
  2. UN Mechanisms: The United Nations has disappointed Syrians because of UN Security Council vetoes and the failure to make a referral to International Criminal Court (ICC). However, the UN Human Rights Council’s commissions of inquiry serves accountability by fact-finding and investigating crimes and perpetrators. In addition, the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) was created to prepare files and assist the investigation and prosecution of crimes.
  3. Prosecution outside Syria: Syria is not a party to the Rome Statute and the UNSC has failed to refer its crimes to the ICC. But prosecution in other states is still possible.

El-Sadany proposes that the international community needs to amend, strengthen, and improve accountability mechanisms. Advocates should lobby their governments for more funding for accountability efforts and improved human rights laws. Lawyers should translate materials, especially on universal jurisdiction, into Arabic to reach Syrian victims and civil society.

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Peace Picks | November 18 – November 22

Posted in Colin Tait - November 15, 2019 - 0 Comment

Responding to Armed Groups in Venezuela | November 18, 2019 | 9:30 AM – 11:15 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Please join CSIS’ Future of Venezuela Initiative for a discussion on how the presence of illegal armed groups affects the transition process in Venezuela, and what the United States, the international community, and other pertinent actors within Latin America can do to mitigate the effect of these groups.

The presence of armed groups in Venezuela significantly affects how policymakers consider addressing the Venezuelan political and humanitarian crisis. The Maduro regime seeks to benefit from Venezuela’s status as a hub for transnational crime and illicit activities, causing policymakers to doubt what the best approach to address the crisis would be. Illegal armed groups finding haven in Venezuela not only adds new threats to Venezuela’s internal security, but also threatens Colombia’s security and the region writ-large. Illegal armed groups in Venezuela include the National Liberation Army (ELN), remnants of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), colectivos, garimpeiros, and other residual organized armed groups (GAO) and criminal gangs.

The event will feature keynote remarks from Colombia’s High Commissioner for Peace, Miguel Ceballos, and from Paul Ahern, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department. The remarks will be followed by a panel with former National Security Advisers to the White House and the former Vice President of Panama, and will be moderated by CSIS’ Moises Rendon.

FEATURING

Fernando Cutz

Senior Associate, The Cohen Group; Former National Security Council

Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado

Former Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Government of Panama

Dan Fisk

Chief Operations Officer, International Republican Institute; Former National Security Council

Juan Cruz

Senior Adviser, CSIS Americas Program; Former National Security Council

Miguel Ceballos

High Commissioner for Peace, Government of Colombia

Paul Ahern

Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, U.S. Treasury Department

CSIS Debate Series: Does the U.S. Need a Foreign Policy for sub-Saharan Africa? | November 20, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 11:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, Floor 2, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

Does democracy foster economic growth? Does great power competition hurt or empower the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa? Since the 1990s, there has been a consensus about U.S. priorities and policies toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
 
The CSIS Africa Program with the support of the Open Society Foundations is hosting a series of debates in Washington, D.C. and other U.S. cities to challenge old paradigms and identify new approaches to tackle pressing U.S.-Africa policy issues. For its inaugural debate on November 20, 2019 from 9:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., CSIS will pose the question, “Does the United States need a foreign policy in sub-Saharan Africa?” to former U.S. government officials and African scholars. Experts will face off to identify the advantages and disadvantages of U.S. engagement in Africa and to open a dialogue on a new framework for U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Audience members will vote key debate points as well as participate in a Question & Answer session. Save the date, register, and subscribe to the CSIS Africa Program distribution list to receive updates on the Debate Series.

FEATURING

Monde Muyangwa

Africa Program Director, Wilson Center

Chidi Odinkalu

Senior Managing Legal Officer, Open Society Justice Initiative

Ambassador (ret.) John Simon

Founding Partner, Total Impact Capital (TOTAL)

The State of Human Rights in Africa | November 20, 2019 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room 1775, Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

On a continent as vast and diverse as Africa, there are no simple narratives on freedom and human rights. Like many places in the world, there are hopeful trends and success stories, but also worrisome trends and signs of backsliding. While sincere efforts to enshrine human rights in law are found in most of Africa’s 54 countries, the actual protection of those rights often falls victim to corruption or to violent non-state actors with other designs in mind. But there are reasons for optimism as well as caution — and ample data to show observers where the trends are going. For instance, according to Freedom House, sub-Saharan Africa has about 10 “free” countries (most of them small), about 20 “partly free,” and about 20 more “not free” nations. Recent trends in The Gambia and Angola give rise to optimism, while repressive actions in Tanzania and Uganda suggest they have a ways to go.

On November 20, the Africa Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution will host a panel of experts on human rights trends in Africa. Questions will follow from the audience.

Speakers:

Moderator

Michael E. O’Hanlon

Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy

Director of Research – Foreign Policy

The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair

Panelists

Mausi Segun

Executive Director, Africa – Human Rights Watch

Tiseke Kasambala

Chief of Party, Advancing Rights in Southern Africa Program – Freedom House

Jon Temin

Director, Africa Program – Freedom House

Repairing the Damage: The future of U.S. relations with our Syrian Kurdish and the fight against ISIS | November 20, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Russell Senate Office, 2 Constitution Ave NE, Room 385, Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here

Turkey’s recent invasion of the predominantly Kurdish region (Rojava) in northeast Syria has upended the successful four year joint operation between the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS in Syria and left the Syrian Kurds and their partners at the mercy of Putin and Assad to seek protection against advancing Turkish forces.  

Nearly 300,000 Kurds, Christians, and Arabs have been displaced and more than 700 people have been killed in the conflict which has also placed the anti-ISIS campaign at risk, including the potential escape of 1000s of ISIS prisoners in SDF-managed camps in eastern Syria.  Alongside the Turkish military, radical jihadist fighters backed by Turkey have committed documented war crimes including the brutal murder of female Syrian Kurdish politician, Hevrin Khalaf.

Despite the U.S.-Turkish ceasefire agreement, Turkey and its proxies continue to bombard and invade areas outside the zone and Turkish President Erdogan has continued to reiterate his intention to ‘cleanse’ the area of local inhabitants. Confusion exists over the implications of the recent US decision to redeploy a small number of US forces back into eastern Syria to protect oil resources there.

The panel discussion will address the future relationship between the US and its Syrian Kurdish allies and the way forward to stop Turkey’s military operation, remove Turkish-backed jihadi proxies from the area and prevent the re-emergence of ISIS.

Opening Remarks — Honorable Senator Chris Van Hollen

Panel Discussion

Moderator:  Dr. Najmaldin Karim, President of the Washington Kurdish Institute

Ms. Ilham Ahmed, President of the Syrian Democratic Council

Dr. Amy Austin Holmes, Woodrow Wilson International Center &Visiting Professor at Harvard University

Dr. Aykan Erdemir, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Future Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria | November 21, 2019 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM | National Press Club, 529 14th St NW, Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here

On November 21st, the Turkish Heritage Organization will host President of the Independent Syrian Kurdish Association Abdulaziz Tammo, Council of United Syrians and Americans Executive Director Hamdi Rifai, and TRT World Middle East Correspondent Sarah Firth for a discussion on “Future Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria”.

The Role of Women in Syria’s Future | November 21, 2019 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a public event featuring a panel of influential Syrian women, which will focus on the important role of women within Syrian civil society and in local and international initiatives aimed at shaping a better future for Syria. The panel will focus particularly on the contributions made by women in Syria’s ongoing political processes, including the nascent Geneva negotiation track, as well as in the recently UN-convened Constitutional Committee.

Please join us for this timely discussion on the role of women at home and abroad, amid conflict and a continuing search for peace and justice in Syria.

Speakers 

Sarah Hunaidi

Writer and human rights activist; member of the Syrian Women’s Political Movement

Rafif Jouejati

Co-founder and Director, FREE-Syria

Jomana Qaddour

Lawyer and analyst; co-founder, Syria Relief & Development

Vivian Salama

Journalist, The Wall Street Journal

Energizing India: Conversations on Energy Access and Security | November 22, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC | Register Here

India faces various accessibility challenges in rural and urban regions. Smart grid and off-grid solutions subsidized by the Indian government have made the country one of the fastest electrifying in the world. While the Indian government claims 100 percent electrification, and thus significant transmission and distribution infrastructure, energy experts raise questions about the impact of these government-led efforts. As electrification grows among households, new solutions from both public and private sector entities must ensure long-term energy access and security.

Please join the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and South Asia Center on Friday, November 22, 2019 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. for a conversation with Shreerupa Mitra, Executive Director of The Energy Forum, about her new book, “Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives.” followed by two expert panels on energy access and security in India.

Book Discussion: Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives

Shreerupa Mitra
Executive Director
The Energy Forum

Moderated by

Randolph Bell
Director, Global Energy CenterAtlantic Council

Panel I: Ensuring Energy Access

Dr. Johannes Urpelainen
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Professor of Energy, Resources and Environment; Director, Energy, Resources and Environment Program, School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University

Moderated by

Bina Hussein
Associate Director, Global Energy Center
Atlantic Council

Panel II: Ensuring Energy Security

Amos Hochstein
Former Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs
US Department of State

Shreerupa Mitra
Executive Director
The Energy Forum

Moderated by

Dr. Irfan Noorruddin
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council

*More speakers to be announced soon*

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Accountability should not wait

Posted in Colin Tait - September 27, 2019 - 0 Comment

On September 27, the Middle East Institute and the Pro-Justice jointly hosted a panel to launch the new book, Blacklist: Violations Committed by the Most Prominent Syrian Regime Figures and How to Bring Them to Justice. Blacklist identifies and provides detailed information on nearly 100 individuals accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria over the past eight years. The book sheds light on the crimes themselves and outlines potential political and judicial avenues available to bring the perpetrators to justice.

The panel consisted of Anne Barnard, a New York Times journalist who has extensively covered the conflict in Syria, Wael Sawah, the president and director of Pro-Justice and former executive director of the Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, and Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism program at MEI. The event was moderated by Joyce Karam, who is the Washington correspondent for The National and adjunct professor at George Washington University.

The Syrian conflict is approaching its ninth year and increasingly becoming forgotten by the international community. Lister gave a broad overview of wartime consequences to remind the panel and audience of the ongoing atrocity. Syria is a disastrous humanitarian crisis with roughly 500,000 deaths since 2011. The conflict has an extensive history of war crimes, most of which are perpetuated by the central government of Syria. The Assad regime is responsible for 89% of civilian deaths, 99% of torture deaths, 89% of arbitrary arrests, and 85% of forced displacements. Barnard noted that even before the conflict, there were high rates of detention in the elaborate prison system established throughout the Assad dynasty, but as the conflict escalated from 2011 onward, the situation worsened. The UN has labeled the prisons in Syria as exterminate conditions with a system of sadistic torture and high levels of disease.

Sawah continued by saying that these facts and figures are important to note because without accountability and justice, there will never be a lasting peace in Syria. He stated that Blacklist is an important publication to act as an open guide to identify the perpetuators and assist legal professionals in creating a foundational narrative to work towards holding those responsible of crimes against humanity. Barnard agreed and said that the industrial prison system has fostered the ability of the regime to commit these crimes. 100,000 Syrians have not been located after their time detained. It is important to work towards identifying the fates of these people to take initial steps towards reaching justice through administering accountability.

Lister discussed how legal accountability does not seem likely for Assad and high-ranking members of the regime because the general perception is that the Syrian conflict has been won by the regime. He notes that it is far from over, but in the short-term sanctions on these individuals can restrict their international travel and ability to act as legitimate statesmen. Doing so will isolate the regime and not allow it to operate with impunity.

Sawah talked about the pivotal role Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran have played in enabling the Assad regime to survive throughout the civil war. The regime would have collapsed by 2013 without their support. They must be held accountable for their support of Assad and their own war crimes. Lister echoed this by mentioning the Russian precision strikes on civilian hospitals in opposition-held regions. He suggested that the US needs to begin an investigation of Russian war crimes to develop a portfolio of reports to name and shame their heinous actions against Syrian civilians.

The panel agreed that continued investigations such as Blacklist are needed to reach a stable peace in the future. Without making accountability for injustices, opposition groups will flourish, and civilians will continue to disdain the regime.  

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Little by little is too little

Posted in Nathaniel Haas - July 9, 2019 - 0 Comment

On July 8 the United States Institute of Peace hosted a panel discussion titled “The North Korea Sanctions Regime a Year After Singapore.” The panel featured Dan Wertz, Program Manager at the National Committee on North Korea, Joshua Stanton, a DC-based lawyer who played  a significant role in North Korea sanctions, Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, a member of the UN Panel of Experts (Resolution 1874) dealing with North Korea, and Elizabeth Rosenberg, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security. Frank Aum, former Senior Advisor for North Korea at the Defense Department, moderated the discussion.

Stanton views the history of US leadership on North Korea issues as many “instant gratification policies” instead of better thought out and more effective long-term policies. North Korea is highly dependent on access to US financial systems because of the status of the dollar. Since many North Korean transactions have to go through US banks, financial sanctions blocking transactions and freezing North Korean accounts can be highly effective. 

Stanton believes the conversation on sanctions relief is coming about two years too early. More pressure on the Kim regime is needed so that he has a diplomatic incentive to work with the US. Even small sanctions relief is enough for North Korea to catch a breather and continue the status quo. The argument that North Korea can’t survive without nuclear weapons and therefore won’t give them up is ahistorical, according to Stanton, because North Korea has survived for decades without nuclear weapons and can continue to do so. The threat to North Korea is mainly internal.

On possible sanctions relief, Stanton clarifies that Congress has set strict rules dependent not only on issues such as nuclear disarmament and denuclearization but also contingent on human rights, human trafficking, and other issues. The current direction in congress is towards stricter rules for sanctions relief, with the goal of complete, verifiable and undisputed denuclearization of North Korea. The US has to work together with its allies to set up financial sanctions that pressure Pyongyang while at the same time allowing transactions for non-military purposes that benefit the North Korean people. Humanitarian aid should be given to North Korea regardless of political or military actions since it benefits the poor and starving civilians, a point all the panelists agreed on.

Kleine-Ahlbrandt notes that the goal of the UN sanctions regime is to persuade North Korea to dismantle its nuclear and missile programs and prevent the proliferation of WMDs. Sanctions shouldn’t be the objective, which is to catalyze what she calls “effective dialogue.” At the same time the negative impact of sanctions on the economy and civilian population of North Korea should be limited. The UN sanctions regime is broad, but member states have insufficiently implemented the sanctions and evasion tactics by North Korean entities and individuals have undermined compliance. North Korea currently has full access to the international financial system through complicit foreign nationals, a network of agents, and cyberattacks aimed at financial institutions.

Wertz views the sanctions as having a threefold purpose: signaling to North Korea that provocative actions such as missile tests come at a cost, constraining progress on WMDs and other military capabilities, and coercing North Korea through sanctions pressure to make concessions and abandon the nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Coercion is difficult because translating economic pressure to political actions is difficult. UN sanctions, which are focused on the missile and nuclear programs, can be modified if political consensus is reached within the UNSC on whether North Korea’s behavior warrants relief.

US sanctions are trickier since they are premised on a broad range of topics from WMDs to human rights, cyber-attacks, currency counterfeiting and more. The executive branch has some leeway on how it administers individual sanctions or waives them on a case by case basis, but to lift sanctions as a whole the White House has to certify to Congress that North Korea has made significant progress on several of the issues listed. This divergence of US and UN sanctions could potentially lead to a clash if North Korea abandons its nuclear program but doesn’t improve on human rights or other issues. 

Wertz suggests that a program of phased sanctions relief in return for meaningful concessions on the nuclear program could be in the US interest down the road and lists five principles for sanctions relief:

  1. Any trade of sanctions relief for North Korean nuclear concessions should be premised on the ultimate goal of denuclearization but should also make sense on its own terms.
  2. The US should start with the sanctions that have the least direct connection to the nuclear program and can be most easily adjusted and snapped back.
  3. The US shouldn’t ease up on measures intended to deny hard currency to North Korea until it can guarantee the money won’t be funneled to military programs.
  4. Sanctions relief should be structured in a way that pushes North Korea towards an open economy and minimal respect for labor rights.
  5.  If sanctions relief goes forward the United States and allies should continue to enforce sanctions that haven’t been lifted, but not expand the scope of sanctions.

Rosenberg suggests the lack of compliance with sanctions is in part because many individuals or companies don’t understand or know about the rules. Awareness and compliance protocols in industries other than finance are rare. Before sanctions are removed, Rosenberg says it is valuable to think about what unwinding sanctions could look like. Sanctions shouldn’t be lifted as an incentive; behavioral change has to happen before sanctions are lifted because they are in place for specific concerns. Instead more work should be put into establishing communication and cultural as well as diplomatic exchanges as incentives, none of which require sanctions relief. 

Rosenberg also warns that a “little-by-little” approach to removing sanctions in exchange for limited progress doesn’t work. North Korea’s track record of cheating on sanctions means incremental change might create a façade behind which North Korea can do as it pleases. The only politically viable way ahead for the US is major sanctions relief after North Korea makes major and verified progress on denuclearization.

Here is the video of the event:

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Peace Picks: October 29 – November 4

Posted in Rory Coleman - October 28, 2018 - 0 Comment
  1. What Really Works to Prevent Election Violence? | Monday, October 29 | 9:30 am – 11:30 am | United States Institute of Peace | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here 

One in five elections worldwide is marred by violence—from burned ballot boxes to violent suppression of peaceful rallies, to assassinations of candidates. A USIP study of programs to prevent violence suggests focusing on improving the administration and policing of elections. The study, of elections in Kenya and Liberia, found no evidence that programs of voter consultation or peace messaging were effective there. Join USIP to discuss this important new report.

Governments and international organizations invest in many programs—youth engagement, election observation, police training, and civic education—to help poorly governed states or developing democracies hold credible elections. USIP’s new report, “What Works in Preventing Election Violence,” is a piece of the evidence needed to learn which programs work and which do not. Elections experts from Kenya, Liberia and leading U.S. pro-democracy institutions will review the findings of this report against their own experiences. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #ElectingPeace.

Speakers

Pat Merloe 
Senior Associate and Director for Election Programs, NDI

John Tomaszewski
Africa Director, IRI

Joshua Changwony
Deputy Executive Secretary, Constitution and Reform Education Consortium (CRECO, Kenya) 

Oscar Bloh 
Chairman, Elections Coordination Committee (ECC, Liberia)

Inken von Borzyskowski
Assistant Professor, Florida State University

Jonas Claes, facilitator
Senior Program Officer, Center for Applied Conflict Transformation, USIP

Debra Liang-Fenton, facilitator
Senior Program Officer, Center for Applied Conflict Transformation, USIP

2.  Thinking Strategically About Human Rights Challenges in Negotiations with North Korea | Monday, October 29 | 10 am – 11 am | Heritage Foundation | 214 Massachusetts Ave NE Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here 

Prior to the summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, the international community underscored the need to raise human rights concerns in negotiations with North Korea. Despite President Trump’s focus on North Korea’s human rights challenges at the State of the Union and notable meetings with North Korean refugees, human rights were seemingly left out of the conversation in Singapore. Since that time, the U.S. government has said little on human rights issues and reports from South Korea indicate that human rights are not a priority there either. The prospect of a second summit between Trump and Kim is an opportunity where the administration can and should express concerns over Kim Jong-un’s egregious human rights track record. Join us for a conversation on how and why raising human rights issues advances U.S. national security objectives.

Featuring

Jung Pak, Ph.D.

Senior Fellow and SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies, Brookings Institution

Greg Scarlatoiu

Executive Director, The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

Dan Aum

Director of the Washington, D.C. Office , National Bureau for Asian Research

Hosted by:

Olivia Enos

Policy Analyst, Asian Studies Center

3. Unraveling the Web: Dismantling Transnational Organized Crime Networks in the Americas | Tuesday, October 30 | 1 pm – 3:35 pm | American Enterprise Institute, Cohosted by Federalist Society | 1789 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

The United States and its neighbors face an ever-evolving threat of transnational organized crime. Last year, AEI released a tactical report on how US policymakers and law enforcement can target this threat. The Trump administration has been proactive in confronting threat networks close to home in the Americas. However, there is much more work to be done to dismantle criminal syndicates. How can policymakers bolster regional security cooperation, help local economies affected by these groups, and ensure US agencies have the resources they need for this fight?

Join AEI and the Federalist Society for a discussion on the Trump administration’s options in the fight against transnational organized crime in the Americas. Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea will deliver opening remarks, followed by panel discussions.

Agenda

12:45 PM
Registration

1:00 PM
Opening remarks:
Marshall Billingslea, US Treasury Department

1:35 PM
Q&A

1:45 PM
Panel discussion I

Participants:
Douglas Farah, IBI Consultants
Emanuele Ottolenghi, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Celina Realuyo, National Defense University
Moderator:
Roger F. Noriega, AEI

2:20 PM
Q&A

2:30 PM
Break

2:35 PM
Panel discussion II

Participants:
William Brownfield, US Department of State (former)
Clay R. Fuller, AEI
Patrick Hovakimian, Department of Justice
Welby Leaman, Walmart

Moderator:
James Dunlop, Jones Day

3:25 PM
Q&A

3:35 PM
Adjournment

4.  The Protection of Civilians in U.S. Partnered Operations | Tuesday, October 30 | 3  pm – 4:30 pm | Center for Strategic and International Studies in partnership with the Center for Civilians in Conflict and InterAction| 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington DC 20036 | Register Here

Join us for the report launch of “The Protection of Civilians in U.S. Partnered Operations,” a joint initiative between the CSIS International Security Program, the Center for Civilians in Conflict, and InterAction. The event agenda is as follows:

Agenda

3:00 PM – 3:10 PM: Briefing: Report Findings 

  • Daniel R. Mahanty, Director of the U.S. Program, Center for Civilians in Conflict
  • Jenny McAvoy, Director of Protection, InterAction

3:10 PM – 4:30 PM: Moderated Discussion: Protection of Civilians in U.S. Partnered Operations

  • Charles “Cob” Blaha, Director, Office of Security and Human Rights, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Department of State
  • Alexandra Boivin, Head of Regional Delegation for the United States and Canada, International Committee of the Red Cross
  • Amanda Catanzano, Senior Director, International Programs Policy and Advocacy, International Rescue Committee
  • Mark Swayne, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability and Humanitarian Affairs, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, U.S. Department of Defense
  • Moderator: Melissa Dalton, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, International Security Program, and Director, Cooperative Defense Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies

5. The China Debate: Are US and Chinese long-term interests fundamentally incompatible? | Tuesday, October 30 | 3:30 pm – 5 pm | Brookings Institution, Cohosted by Yale Law School | 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

The first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency have coincided with an intensification in competition between the United States and China. Across nearly every facet of the relationship—trade, investment, technological innovation, military dialogue, academic exchange, relations with Taiwan, the South China Sea—tensions have risen and cooperation has waned. To some observers, the more competitive nature of U.S.-China relations was long in the making; to others, it is the outgrowth of recent decisions made by leaders in Washington and Beijing.

On Tuesday, October 30, Evan Osnos will moderate a public debate about the future of U.S.-China relations. Two teams of distinguished experts will examine whether or not U.S. and Chinese interests are “fundamentally incompatible,” as a recent survey by Foreign Affairs posed. Both sides will consider areas where U.S. and Chinese vital interests converge and diverge, whether each country’s national ambitions are reconcilable with the other’s goals, how the United States can best manage great power competition with China, and how domestic politics factor in within each country.

Moderator: 

Evan OsnosP

Nonresident Fellow – Foreign Policy, John L. Thornton China Center

Team Yes:

Evan Medeiros

Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies – Georgetown University

Thomas Wright

Director – Center on the United States and Europe, Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy

Team No:

David M. Lampton

Hyman Professor and Direcotr of China Studies Emeritus – Johns Hopkins University SAIS

Susan A. Thornton

Senior Fellow – Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School, Former Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs – U.S. Department of State

6. Saving Democracy: The Constitutional Dimension | Thursday, November 1 | 9 am – 10:15 am | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here

With global democracy facing serious doubts about its basic health and longevity, comparative studies of safeguards and threats to democracy are multiplying. University of Chicago law professor Tom Ginsburg will join Carnegie’s Thomas Carothers to discuss the constitutional dimensions of democratic decay and survival.

In a new book, How to Save a Constitutional Democracy, Ginsburg and Aziz Z. Huq analyze lessons from around the world about how constitutions sometimes help and sometimes hurt democracy, including a hard comparative look at the U.S. Constitution and its role in America’s democratic troubles. In this session, Ginsburg will present the main findings of their study, including proposals for legal and constitutional measures that can help reduce the risk of democratic backsliding in both the United States and younger democracies around the world.

TOM GINSBURG

Tom Ginsburg is Leo Spitz professor of international law, Ludwig and Hilde Wolf research scholar, and professor of political science at the University of Chicago

THOMAS CAROTHERS

Thomas Carothers is senior vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In that capacity he oversees all of the research programs at Carnegie. He also directs the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program.

7. Course Change or Full Speed Ahead? Post-Midterm U.S. Foreign Policy’s Impact on Indo-Pacific | Friday, November 2 | 11 am – 12 pm | Stimson Center | 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, 8th Floor, Washington DC. 20036 | Register Here 

The United States midterm elections may determine whether U.S. foreign policy changes course in 2019 or holds steady. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. foreign policy agenda has undergone some changes, rarely mentioning U.S. values and at times displaying disconnect between rhetoric and policy implementation. Particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, where the Trump administration has discussed disengagement and international cooperation by turns, post-election U.S. foreign policy will impact how current shifts in the security environment play out. After the midterms, will Congress forge a new consensus on how foreign policy should be conducted? Or if there is no course change, what will be the potential consequences for future presidents’ foreign policy agenda? Join Stimson and the Canon Institute for Global Studies for a seminar to discuss these questions, as well as how U.S. foreign policy looks from the outside, and what impact it will have on the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Featuring:

DEREK MITCHELL, President, National Democratic Institute (NDI) Ambassador

KUNI MIYAKE, Research Director for Foreign and National Security Affairs, Canon Institute for Global Studies (CIGS)

DANIEL TWINING, President, International Republican Institute (IRI)

YUKI TATSUMI, Co-Director, East Asia Program, Stimson (moderator)

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