Tag: Hungary
Hopeful v hopeless: guess who won
Last night’s presidential debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris conformed to expectations. An ill-tempered Trump lied, rambled, and indulged in conspiracy theories. A smiling and bemused Harris projected herself as an agent of change and optimism. She was amiable and hopeful. He was threatening and hopeless. That’s what really counts.
Policy doesn’t count, but it is still worth considering
The economy: advantage Harris
On the economy, Trump promises little more than steep tariffs on everything, which a president can impose without Congressional approval, and extension of the tax cuts passed in 2017 for the (very) rich. Neither proposition should be attractive to 90% of Americans. He continues to insist that other countries will pay the tariffs, but they will also raise prices whenever they can to recoup whatever they pay. In addition, they will retaliate against US exports. So MAGA means higher prices and loss of market share abroad. Little to celebrate there.
Harris is flogging tax breaks for small business, families, and home construction. Not all of what she proposes makes good sense, and she has not said how she will pay for them. But her proposals respond to what most Americans are concerned about. All of what she wants would have to pass in Congress, which means there is at least a chance to get it right. Even if the Democrats were to gain control of both Houses, it would be difficult to hold together their majorities for proposals that don’t make sense.
Immigration: advantage Harris
This is Trump’s strong suit, but he played his hand poorly. He repeatedly claimed that immigrants are increasing the crime rate in the US. He even claimed that crime is down in Venezuela and other countries because all the criminals are being sent to the US. Harris didn’t respond forcefully on these points. I suppose she was wary of championing immigration. But crime is down in the US and it is not down in Venezuela and other migrant-exporting countries.
Harris hit a solid note with her response. She rightfully claimed Trump had blocked a bipartisan immigration bill that would have sharply increased the number of agents on the border. She did not say what a lot of us know: America needs immigrants. The labor market is tight and immigrants are prolific entrepreneurs who found a large number of new, small companies.
Foreign policy: advantage Harris
Trump was at pains to claim that he got NATO countries to ante up and that the world loves him. But America’s allies have been increasing military expenditures at least as fast under Biden. Trump repeated his claim that he would end the Ukraine war by negotiation before he even took office. The only way he could do that is by signaling lack of support for Ukraine. Trump was only able to cite Hungary’s would-be dictator, Viktor Orban, as a leader who appreciates him. Of course Putin, Xi, and Kim are also in that camp, but they are even less to Trump’s credit.
Harris cited Trump’s love affairs with those miscreants, as well as with the Taliban, as evidence of his failure to align the US with its democratic friends and allies. Even more important is that he failed to get anything worthwhile from his dreadful friends. Harris was effective in parrying Trump’s criticism of the Afghanistan withdrawal, which he had negotiated before Biden won the 2020 election.
Next
I expect the polls to show a visible jump for Harris in the next couple of weeks. She demonstrated at the debate a demeanor, temperament, and acuity that contrasted sharply with Trump’s. He looked and played the part of a tired incumbent. His ideas, insofar as he had any, were stale. Taylor Swift got it right. Kamala Harris will be the next President. That will give the Republicans time to end their romance with a crooked flim-flam man.
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Stevenson’s army, February 6
– Senate compromise looks dead
– GOP doesn’t like pandemic treaty
– Orban’s party delays vote
– Mattis secretly advised UAE
– Fred Kaplan analyzes Biden policy
– Politico asks if Blinken is too nice
Prof questions drawing “lessons” from history [Never mind, you still have to do the reading]
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 31
-Lawfare has update on the Philippine-Chinese war wars
– Additional pieces convince me that Congress doesn’t need to authorize strikes on the Houthis; customary international law on piracy already does that, as does the right of self-defense
– WSJ explains the 3 stage pause proposed for the Gaza war.
– Despite denials, FT says Zelensky will fire top general; NYT has background.
– State Dept minimizes significance of cut to UNWRA
– FP looks at history of Hungarian resistance to outsiders
-Last night I heard Jake Sullivan discuss US China policy at CFR. His talk persuaded me that the US has a robust, whole of government effort at work, the kind needed for great power competition and cooperation.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 25
– Slovakia makes a U-turn to support Ukraine
– Orban now seems willing to let Sweden join NATO
– McConnell backs away from Ukraine + border bill
– Biden pressures Congress on F16s for Turkey
– All but 2 Senate Democrats cosponsor amendment calling for 2 state solution. Here’s the text
– SFRC approves bill to use Russian assets for Ukraine
-Here’s the text of the Kaine et al letter on war powers for Houthi attacks
– RollCall reports 2023 lobbying expenses. Note how little was foreign policy related.
And read this delightful interview with Sen. Angus King [Ind-Maine] about when he was a young Senate staffer. Times have changed.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 24
– Turkey approved Sweden in NATO; Hungary still needs to act.
– Republican Senators fight over border & Ukraine, shows weakened McConnell
– Some Senators question Biden authority to attack Houthis [My view: President has authority & precedents for Red Sea operations, not for defense of Israel]
– Taiwan Caucus group goes to Taiwan.
– WOTR writer sees corruption in Chinese rocket forces
– Scottish prof says AI is already changing the battlefield
– WSJ says US sees new threats in West Africa
– Deja vu: Heritage supports Jimmy Carter’s road-mobile ICBM plan
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to âStevensonâs armyâ via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevensonâs army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. Youâll get an email confirming your join request. Click âJoin This Groupâ and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A cold shoulder might get more results
This is one of those moments in the Balkans when what is not said is more important than what is said. The Americans and Europeans have so far failed to publish the results of their announced investigations of the September 24 failed Serb uprising in northern Kosovo. On that occasion, Serbia sent a well-armed group to ambush the Kosovo police, killing one officer. The Serbs also tried to draw the police into a firefight at a monastery compound. The perpetrators intended this incident to provide an excuse for Serbian military intervention. Presumbly the goal was to seize the four Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo.
No doubt
There is really no doubt about what happened and why. The only real question is who authorized this terrorist plot. It was either Serbian President VuÄiÄ or not. I have no evidence on that issue. But we know that VuÄiÄ usually makes all the really important decisions in Belgrade. If he did not make this one, that is only a marginally better reflection on his rule than if he did.
Ever since the failed plot, VuÄiÄ has cozied up even more than usual to anti-democratic forces in the region and beyond. His besties lately have included Bosnian secessionist Dodik, Hungarian would-be autocrat Orban, illegitimate Belarusian chief of state Lukashenko, Azerbaijani dictator Aliyev, as well as Russian and Chinese autocrats Putin and Xi. Here is VuÄiÄ siding with Putin in Ukraine.
He intends to follow Aliyev’s lead in taking Nagorno-Karabakh back by force. When geopolitical circumstances permit, he will do likewise with Kosovo.
VuÄiÄ did belatedly fire his security and information agency chief Vulin. But he did it in response to US sanctions, not the September 24 events. Milan RadojiÄiÄ, a close political ally of VuÄiÄ as well as Kosovo political and criminal kingpin, has taken responsibility for the plot. The authorities arrested but quickly freed him. The courts will take their time getting around to a trial.
Nor should Serbia try him, since his September 24 crimes were committed in Kosovo. He should be handed over to the Pristina authorities.
So why the silence?
Some diplomats will attribute the silence to preoccupation in Washington and Brussels with the Gaza war. That certainly merits priority and slows high-level decisions on other issues. But the State Department and the EU foreign policy apparatus are both geared to deal with problems worldwide, not just today’s top issues.
More likely they have hesitated because of the Serbian parliamentary elections this Sunday, which won’t bring big surprises. President VuÄiÄ would not have called an early poll if he thought he would lose it. There is ample evidence he is using the government’s media dominance, state institutions, patronage, and largesse to ensure a friendly outcome. But no one in Washington or Brussels at this point should want to help him.
The EU has another handicap. It requires consensus for any serious reaction. Most of its 27 members might be ready to do something. But Hungary and perhaps now Slovakia will be prepared to block consensus on sanctions on Serbia.
I might also hope that the State Department is re-evaluating its policy in the Balkans and needs a bit more time to get it right. It has officials devoted to the notion that he has succeeded in getting Serbia to embrace the West. It is sometimes easier at State to change personnel than minds, but it takes time.
Here are three nudges
Maybe Brussels and Washington need a nudge in the right direction. They no doubt have this Kosovo government preliminary report on the September 24 plot. But to my knowledge no one has published it outside Kosovo.
I offered a summary more than a month ago. It is high time that someone make it widely available. Along with the investigation the EU has promised. Read please, and tell me whether Serbia has embraced the West.
Or try this statement from Serbia’s Prime Minister reneging on commitments the US and EU say are legally binding:
Meanwhile, the EU has levied “consequences” on Kosovo that are long past their sell by date. Some Europeans are anxious to say so:
Note that it is the same police who foiled the September 24 plot that the US and EU have wanted withdrawn from northern Kosovo. That would have been a big mistake.
Hedging only works if we play the game
Serbia’s foreign policy relies on hedging between East and West, in the tradition of the non-aligned movement founded in Belgrade in 1961. This makes sense for Serbia, which thereby extracts value from both directions. The game is to lean hard one way and see how much the other side will ante up for you. VuÄiÄ has been leaning hard towards the East and collecting bounty from the West. Don’t take it only from me–read what people in Moscow are saying.
But if the West refuses to play the game, the hedging fails, and Serbia lands in the arms of Putin and Xi. That is no great loss to the West, which hasn’t gained much for all the goodies it has rained on Belgrade. Let’s assume though that VuÄiÄ is sincerely committed to hedging. A cold shoulder would then make him do a bit more to please the West. Wouldn’t that be nice?
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