Tag: Illicit Weapons
Arms trafficking: more breach than observance
An event at the Atlantic Council on February 4 discussed the measures and mitigation techniques for illicit transfer of arms and weaponry around the world. The event was prompted by a report published by the Atlantic Council, authored by investigative journalist Tim Michetti, which followed materiel procurement by a network of militants operating in Bahrain, specifically activities carried out by Iran. The report can be read here. The prompting questions for the discussion were based on how to prevent and disrupt the flow of international illicit weapons flows as well as strengthening arms embargos. Further topics of discussion analyzed specific examples of illicit transfers of weapons in different regions, as well as the policy implications and a road map to alleviate these weapon flows.
Speakers:
Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers
Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center
Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia
David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center
Norman Roule (Moderator): Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Challenges:
Moderator Norman Roule opened the discussion noting that the major concern revolves around Iran’s transfer of illegal weaponry throughout the Middle East, while also noting the consequences for regional geopolitical relations, reaching East Africa as well. Iran has provided weapons to Syria, which provoked a sort of “forever war” with Israel, as well as provided precision weapons and missiles to the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Tim Michetti’s report on Illicit Iranian Weapon’s Transfers analyzes the mode of entry, either by land or by maritime means. The report analyzed the weapons in comparison to those that were taken from regional conflicts in order to trace the materiel back to Iran. This work established a guide for how materiel from different regions could be traced back to actors based on their characteristics, which are unique to each country that they are manufactured in. Michetti’s report on Bahrain is one of many examples of the illicit weapons flows in the Middle East and sets the stage for future investigations on how the linkages between illicit weapons and where they end up can be made.
Jay Bahadur discussed an illicit weapons seizure by the Saudi Arabian navy in the Arabian Sea in June 2020 that discovered Chinese- made assault rifles and missiles, along with other weaponry that was believed to be manufactured in Iran. This seizure was not the first of this type, as the Saudis have intercepted multiple ships in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea since 2015, many of which have been traced back to Iran, where the weapons originated. These weapon transfers have exacerbated the conflict in Yemen, while also potentially destabilizing East African countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea.
Historically, disrupting commercial trafficking of small arms and light weapons has been a secondary priority to counterterrorism, but according to Jay Bahadur this approach ignores the overlap that often exists between arms trafficking and terrorism.
International Regulation
According to Rachel Stohl, the Arms Trade Treaty and the Firearms Protocol form the international legal framework for weapons transfers. Several voluntary groups and committees exist as well, in the United Nations and elsewhere. Synergy among these groups and treaties can improve transparency and responsibility in the global arms trade. The treaty mechanisms are only meaningful if they are implemented and signatories held accountable. In the Middle East and Horn of Africa, fewer than than 20 percent of countries are parties to the international treaties. Stohl emphasized the need to hold countries and industry actors accountable, as the consequences of illicit weapons transfers coincide with other illicit activities such as terrorism, trafficking, and illegal trading of goods.
David Mortlock noted that the international systems in place to combat illicit weapons transfers depend on member-state governments to uphold them. Sanctions should be considered to hold governments accountable. They can increase the operational costs for groups transferring weapons illicitly, but the UN and European Union have not wanted to sanction Iran to the extent the United States has. As noted by Roule, the United States, particularly the Trump Administration, had a vastly different perspective on countering Iran compared to the rest of the international community.
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Peace Picks | February 1 – February 5, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Human Rights and the Future World Order | February 1, 2021| 12:00 – 1:30 PM ET | Belfer Center Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
The issue of human rights presents a special challenge for any effort to construct a workable world order. Can democracies and their publics remain true to their stated values within a world where human rights abuses are still widespread, without meddling into other nations’ domestic political affairs or presuming to know exactly how to achieve these ends globally? To what extent will differences over basic notions of human rights undermine efforts to cooperate on trade, climate, arms control, or other pressing global problems?
Speakers:
Hina Jialni: Former United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Human rights Defenders
Samuel Moyn: Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence, Yale Law School and Professor of History, Yale University
Zeid Ra’ad: Perry World House Professor of the Practice of Law and Human Rights, University of Pennsylvania
2. Maritime Security Dialogue: USN: Setting the Theatre in the Artic | February 2, 2021 | 10:00 -11:00 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Watch Here
Please join CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring Admiral Robert P. Burke, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe / Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples. This event will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program.
The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.
Speakers:
Admiral Robert P Burke: Commander US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples
Heather A Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSI
3. Crisis Group’s EU Watch List: 10 Cases Where the EU Can Build Peace in 2021 | February 2, 2021 | 9:30AM-12:15 PM ET | Crisis Group | Watch Here
The International Crisis Group invites you to join the launch of our EU Watch List, the yearly publication identifying ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence, where a stronger engagement and early action driven or supported by the EU and its member states could help generate stronger prospects for peace and stability.
Crisis Group Senior staff will join representatives from the European Commission and the European External Action Service to analyse the relevance and the policy suggestions of the ten cases presented in the Watch List: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iran & the Gulf, Libya, Mexico & Central America, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somalia, Thailand and Venezuela.
The briefing will start with a high-level panel on global conflict trends, followed by a presentation of the Watch List with interventions from EU senior officials and Crisis Group Program Directors. A Q&A with participants will conclude the event.
Speakers:
Stefano Sannino: Secretary General of the European External Action Service
Richard Atwood: Chief of Policy, Crisis Group
Hilde Hardeman: Director, Head of Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, European Commission
Giuseppe Famà: Head of EU Affairs, Crisis Group
Elissa Jobson: Director of Global Advocacy, Crisis Group
Ivan Briscoe: Latin America & Caribbean Program Director, Crisis Group
Comfort Ero: Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Joost Hiltermann: Middle East and North Africa Program Director, Crisis Group
Olga Oliker: Europe and Central Asia Program Director, Crisis Group
Stefano Tormat: Director, Integrated Approach for Security and Peace, European External Action Service
4. The Geopolitics of The Green Deal | February 3, 2021 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
This event will mark the launch of the eponymous paper co-written by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel. In the paper, the authors map out the geopolitical implications of the European Green Deal and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and to lead climate change efforts globally. Join us as an invited panel provide their insight into the paper, chaired by co-author Guntram Wolff.
This event is organised in cooperation with Bruegel.
Registration is not obligatory to watch the livestream. You are welcome to register if you wish to receive a reminder and updates about the event.
Speakers:
Anne Bergenfelt: Senior Advisor, Cabinet of Josep Borrell Fontelles
Mark Leonard: Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Simone Tagiapeitra: Research Fellow at Bruegel
Chaired by:
Guntram Wolff: Director of Bruegel
5. Syrian Requiem: The Civil War and its Aftermath | February 4, 2021 | 10:00-11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
In their new book, “Syrian Requiem,” Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, draw on more than 200 specially conducted interviews to tell the story of the conflict in Syria. The authors detail the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, survey the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examine the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others.
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studie
6. Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapons Transfers | February 4, 2021 | 12:00 PM-1:00 ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Tim Michetti, an investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers, recently wrote a new Atlantic Council report, “A Guide to Illicit Iranian Weapon Transfers: The Bahrain File.” During this discussion, Mr. Michetti will present his report, which is a comprehensive, field-based case study on illicit Iranian weapon transfers. Following his presentation, he will be joined in discussion by Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center; David Mortlock, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a partner at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher; Jay Bahadur, investigator, author, and former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and moderator Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Using findings from the report, the panelists will explore ways to improve mitigation measures to prevent illicit weapon transfers and strengthen the efficacy of arms embargoes. The discussion will explore how current international arms control architecture, sanctions enforcement mechanisms, and lessons from WMD non-proliferation may be applied to mapping and dismantling underlying networks that facilitate the international trade in illicit weapons.
Speakers:
Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers
Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center
Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia
David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center
Moderated By:
Norman Roule: Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligenc
7. Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration | February 5, 2021 | 9:30-10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Watch Here
Even with an agreement to extend New START, the Biden Administration confronts important policy choices regarding nuclear doctrine, managing nuclear tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea; which offensive and defensive weapons systems to retain, build, or eliminate; and how to pursue arms control.
Speakers:
Michèle Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Under Secretary of Defense
George Perkovich: Policy Expert of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program
Pranay Vaddi: Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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